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Immigration Visa Pas

The document consists of various probability problems involving different scenarios, including finding probabilities related to events, conditional probabilities, and tree diagrams. It covers topics such as the probability of finding items, the likelihood of presenters being male on radio stations, and the outcomes of rolling dice. Additionally, it includes real-life applications of probability in contexts like taxi services, college admissions, and meal choices.

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17 views13 pages

Immigration Visa Pas

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omarshahud882

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Probability

1 When Ted is looking for his pen, the probability that it is in his pencil case is 0.7. If his pen is in his pencil case
he always finds it. If his pen is somewhere else, the probability that he finds it is 0.2. Given that Ted finds his
pen when he is looking for it, find the probability that it was in his pencil case.

......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................

......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................

2 Maria has 3 pre-set stations on her radio. When she switches her radio on, there is a probability of 0.3 that it will
be set to station 1, a probability of 0.45 that it will be set to station 2 and a probability of 0.25 that it will be set to
station 3. On station 1 the probability that the presenter is male is 0.1, on station 2 the probability that the
presenter is male is 0.85 and on station 3 the probability that the presenter is male is p. When Maria switches on
the radio, the probability that it is set to station 3 and the presenter is male is 0.075.

(i) Show that the value of p is 0.3.

(ii) Given that Maria switches on and hears a male presenter, find the probability that the radio was
set to station 2. [4]
......................................................................................................................................................................

......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................

......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................

......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................
3 Two fair twelve-sided dice with sides marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 are thrown, and the
numbers on the sides which land face down are noted. Events Q and R are defined as follows.
Q : the product of the two numbers is 24.
R : both of the numbers are greater than 8.
(i) Find P(Q). [2]

(ii) Find P(R). [2]

(iii) Are events Q and R exclusive? Justify your answer. [2]

(iv) Are events Q and R independent? Justify your answer. [2]

......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................

......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................

......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................
4 At a zoo, rides are offered on elephants, camels and jungle tractors. Ravi has money for only one
ride. To decide which ride to choose, he tosses a fair coin twice. If he gets 2 heads he will go on the
elephant ride, if he gets 2 tails he will go on the camel ride and if he gets 1 of each he will go on the
jungle tractor ride.
(i) Find the probabilities that he goes on each of the three rides. [2]

The probabilities that Ravi is frightened on each of the rides are as follows:
6 7 8
elephant ride 10
, camel ride 10
, jungle tractor ride 10
.
(ii) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram showing the rides that Ravi could take and whether or not he
is frightened. [2]

Ravi goes on a ride.

(iii) Find the probability that he is frightened. [2]

(iv) Given that Ravi is not frightened, find the probability that he went on the camel ride. [3]
TOPIC 2: PROBABLITY

1 When Don plays tennis, 65% of his first serves go into the correct area of the court. If the first serve
goes into the correct area, his chance of winning the point is 90%. If his first serve does not go into the
correct area, Don is allowed a second serve, and of these, 80% go into the correct area. If the second
serve goes into the correct area, his chance of winning the point is 60%. If neither serve goes into the
correct area, Don loses the point.

(i) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information. [4]

(ii) Using your tree diagram, find the probability that Don loses the point. [3]

(iii) Find the conditional probability that Don’s first serve went into the correct area, given that he
loses the point. [2]

2 When Andrea needs a taxi, she rings one of three taxi companies, A, B or C. 50% of her calls are to
taxi company A, 30% to B and 20% to C. A taxi from company A arrives late 4% of the time, a taxi
from company B arrives late 6% of the time and a taxi from company C arrives late 17% of the time.

(i) Find the probability that, when Andrea rings for a taxi, it arrives late. [3]

(ii) Given that Andrea’s taxi arrives late, find the conditional probability that she rang company B.
[3]

3 Data about employment for males and females in a small rural area are shown in the table.

Unemployed Employed
Male 206 412
Female 358 305

A person from this area is chosen at random. Let M be the event that the person is male and let E be
the event that the person is employed.

(i) Find P(M ). [2]

(ii) Find P(M and E). [1]

(iii) Are M and E independent events? Justify your answer. [3]

(iv) Given that the person chosen is unemployed, find the probability that the person is female. [2]

4 The probability that Henk goes swimming on any day is 0.2. On a day when he goes swimming,
the probability that Henk has burgers for supper is 0.75. On a day when he does not go swimming
the probability that he has burgers for supper is x. This information is shown on the following tree
diagram.
TOPIC 2: PROBABLITY

The probability that Henk has burgers for supper on any day is 0.5.

(i) Find x. [4]

(ii) Given that Henk has burgers for supper, find the probability that he went swimming that day.
[2]

5 Two fair dice are thrown.

(i) Event A is ‘the scores differ by 3 or more’. Find the probability of event A. [3]

(ii) Event B is ‘the product of the scores is greater than 8’. Find the probability of event B. [2]

(iii) State with a reason whether events A and B are mutually exclusive. [2]

6 Jamie is equally likely to attend or not to attend a training session before a football match. If he
attends, he is certain to be chosen for the team which plays in the match. If he does not attend, there
is a probability of 0.6 that he is chosen for the team.

(i) Find the probability that Jamie is chosen for the team. [3]

(ii) Find the conditional probability that Jamie attended the training session, given that he was chosen
for the team. [3]

7 In country A 30% of people who drink tea have sugar in it. In country B 65% of people who drink
tea have sugar in it. There are 3 million people in country A who drink tea and 12 million people in
country B who drink tea. A person is chosen at random from these 15 million people.

(i) Find the probability that the person chosen is from country A. [1]

(ii) Find the probability that the person chosen does not have sugar in their tea. [2]

(iii) Given that the person chosen does not have sugar in their tea, find the probability that the person
is from country B. [2]
1 A total of 500 students were asked which one of four colleges they attended and whether they preferred
soccer or hockey. The numbers of students in each category are shown in the following table.

Soccer Hockey Total

Amos 54 32 86
Benn 84 72 156
Canton 22 56 78
Devar 120 60 180
Total 280 220 500
9709/52/M/J/20

(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student is at Canton college and prefers hockey.
[1]

........................................................................................................................................................

56 14
or or 0.112
500 125
(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student is at Devar college given that he prefers
soccer. [2]

........................................................................................................................................................

........................................................................................................................................................
120 3
or
280 7

(c) One of the students is chosen at random. Determine whether the events ‘the student prefers
hockey’ and ‘the student is at Amos college or Benn college’ are independent, justifying your
answer. [2]

........................................................................................................................................................

not independent
2 On Mondays, Rani cooks her evening meal. She has a pizza, a burger or a curry with probabilities
0.35, 0.44, 0.21 respectively. When she cooks a pizza, Rani has some fruit with probability 0.3.
When she cooks a burger, she has some fruit with probability 0.8. When she cooks a curry, she never
has any fruit.

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. 9709/51/M/J/20 [2]

(b) Find the probability that Rani has some fruit. [2]

........................................................................................................................................................

455
0.838 or
543
3 Two ordinary fair dice, one red and the other blue, are thrown.
Event A is ‘the score on the red die is divisible by 3’.
Event B is ‘the sum of the two scores is at least 9’.
9709/51/O/N/20

(a) Find P A B. [2]

........................................................................................................................................................

5
P(A∩B) =
36

(b) Hence determine whether or not the events A and B are independent. [2]

........................................................................................................................................................

5 5
≠ so not independent
12 18
4 Three fair six-sided dice, each with faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, are thrown at the same time,
repeatedly. For a single throw of the three dice, the score is the sum of the numbers on the top faces.
9709/53/M/J/21
(a) Find the probability that the score is 4 on a single throw of the three dice. [3]

........................................................................................................................................................

0.00454
5 Juan goes to college each day by any one of car or bus or walking. The probability that he goes by
car is 0.2, the probability that he goes by bus is 0.45 and the probability that he walks is 0.35. When
Juan goes by car, the probability that he arrives early is 0.6. When he goes by bus, the probability
that he arrives early is 0.1. When he walks he always arrives early.

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. 9709/53/M/J/20 [2]

(b) Find the probability that Juan goes to college by car given that he arrives early. [4]

........................................................................................................................................................

Each student is allowed a maximum of two attempts at the written test. A student is only allowed
a second attempt if they fail the first attempt. No student is allowed more than one attempt at the
practical test. If a student fails both attempts at the written test, then they cannot attempt the practical
test.

The probability that a student will pass the written test at the first attempt is 0.8. If a student fails the
first attempt at the written test, the probability that they will pass at the second attempt is 0.6. The
probability that a student will pass the practical test is always 0.3.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information, showing the probabilities on the branches.
9709/51/M/J/21 [3]

(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student will succeed in gaining a place at the college.
[2]

........................................................................................................................................................

69
0.276 or
250
(c) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student passes the written test at the first attempt
given that the student succeeds in gaining a place at the college. [2]

........................................................................................................................................................

20
or 0.87[0]
23
7 A fair tetrahedral die has faces numbered 1, 2, 3, 4. A coin is biased so that the probability of showing
a head when thrown is 31 . The die is thrown once and the number n that it lands on is noted. The
biased coin is then thrown n times. So, for example, if the die lands on 3, the coin is thrown 3 times.

(i) Find the probability that the die lands on 4 and the number of times the coin shows heads is 2.
9709/62/O/N/17 [3]

(0.0741)
(ii) Find the probability that the die lands on 3 and the number of times the coin shows heads is 3.
[1]
1
(0.00926)
108
(iii) Find the probability that the number the die lands on is the same as the number of times the coin
shows heads. [3]
10
(0.123) Prob =
81
8 An experiment consists of throwing a biased die 30 times and noting the number of 4s obtained. This
experiment was repeated many times and the average number of 4s obtained in 30 throws was found
to be 6.21. 9709/61/O/N/17

(i) Estimate the probability of throwing a 4. p = 0.207 [1]

Hence

(ii) find the variance of the number of 4s obtained in 30 throws, 4.92 [1]

(iii) find the probability that in 15 throws the number of 4s obtained is 2 or more. = 0.848 [3]
9 Over a period of time Julian finds that on long-distance flights he flies economy class on 82% of
flights. On the rest of the flights he flies first class. When he flies economy class, the probability that
he gets a good night’s sleep is x. When he flies first class, the probability that he gets a good night’s
sleep is 0.9.
9709/61/O/N/17

(i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to illustrate this situation. [2]

The probability that Julian gets a good night’s sleep on a randomly chosen flight is 0.285.

(ii) Find the value of x. x = 0.15 [2]

(iii) Given that on a particular flight Julian does not get a good night’s sleep, find the probability that
he is flying economy class. = 0.975 [3]

10 At the end of a revision course in mathematics, students have to pass a test to gain a certificate. The
probability of any student passing the test at the first attempt is 0.85. Those students who fail are
allowed to retake the test once, and the probability of any student passing the retake test is 0.65.
9709/63/ON/17
(i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to show all the outcomes. [2]

(ii) Given that a student gains the certificate, find the probability that this student fails the test on the
first attempt. [4]
39
= = 0.103
379
11 Two identical biased triangular spinners with sides marked 1, 2 and 3 are spun. For each spinner, the
probabilities of landing on the sides marked 1, 2 and 3 are p, q and r respectively. The score is the
sum of the numbers on the sides on which the spinners land. You are given that P score is 6 = 36 1 and

P score is 5 = 19 . Find the values of p, q and r. p = 1/2 q = 1/3 r = 1/6 9709/62/M/J/17 [6]

12 During the school holidays, each day Khalid either rides on his bicycle with probability 0.6, or on his
skateboard with probability 0.4. Khalid does not ride on both on the same day. If he rides on his
bicycle then the probability that he hurts himself is 0.05. If he rides on his skateboard the probability
that he hurts himself is 0.75.
33
(i) Find the probability that Khalid hurts himself on any particular day. = 0.330 or [2]
100

(ii) Given that Khalid hurts himself on a particular day, find the probability that he is riding on his
skateboard. 10 [2]
= or 0.909
11
(iii) There are 45 days of school holidays. Show that the variance of the number of days Khalid rides
on his skateboard is the same as the variance of the number of days that Khalid rides on his
bicycle. [2]
(iv) Find the probability that Khalid rides on his skateboard on at least 2 of 10 randomly chosen days
in the school holidays. = 0.954 [3]
13 Ashfaq throws two fair dice and notes the numbers obtained. R is the event ‘The product of the two
numbers is 12’. T is the event ‘One of the numbers is odd and one of the numbers is even’. By finding
appropriate probabilities, determine whether events R and T are independent. 9709/61/M/J/17 [5]
The events are independent.
14 A biased die has faces numbered 1 to 6. The probabilities of the die landing on 1, 3 or 5 are each
equal to 0.1. The probabilities of the die landing on 2 or 4 are each equal to 0.2. The die is thrown
twice. Find the probability that the sum of the numbers it lands on is 9. = 0.1 [4]
9709/63/M/J/17
15 A shop sells two makes of coffee, Café Premium and Café Standard. Both coffees come in two sizes,
large jars and small jars. Of the jars on sale, 65% are Café Premium and 35% are Café Standard. Of
the Café Premium, 40% of the jars are large and of the Café Standard, 25% of the jars are large. A jar
is chosen at random. 9709/63/M/J/17

(i) Find the probability that the jar is small. = 0.653 (261/400) [2]

(ii) Find the probability that the jar is Café Standard given that it is large. = 0.252 (35/139) [3]

16 WhenAnyagoestoschool,theprobabilitythatshewalksis0.3andtheprobabilitythatshecycles
is0.65; ifshedoesnotwalkorcycleshetakesthebus. WhenAnyawalkstheprobabilitythatshe
islateis0.15. Whenshecyclestheprobabilitythatsheislateis0.1andwhenshetakesthebusthe
probabilitythatsheislateis0.6.GiventhatAnyaislate,findtheprobabilitythatshecycles.[5]
9709/62/O/N/16 13
= 0.464,
28
17 Visitors to a Wildlife Park in Africa have independent probabilities of 0.9 of seeing giraffes, 0.95 of
seeing elephants, 0.85 of seeing zebras and 0.1 of seeing lions. 9709/61/O/N/16

(i) Find the probability that a visitor to the Wildlife Park sees all these animals. 0.0727 [1]

(ii) Find the probability that, out of 12 randomly chosen visitors, fewer than 3 see lions.= 0.889 [3]

(iii) 50 people independently visit the Wildlife Park. Find the mean and variance of the number of
these people who see zebras. Expectation (= 42.5) [2]
Var (= 6.375)
18 For a group of 250 cars the numbers, classified by colour and country of manufacture, are shown in
the table. 9709/63/O/N/16

Germany Japan Korea

Silver 40 26 34
White 32 22 26
Red 28 12 30

One car is selected at random from this group. Find the probability that the selected car is
(i) a red or silver car manufactured in Korea, 64/250, 0.256 [1]
(ii) not manufactured in Japan. 190/250, 0.76(0) [1]

X is the event that the selected car is white. Y is the event that the selected car is manufactured in
Germany.

(iii) By using appropriate probabilities, determine whether events X and Y are independent. [5]
independent
19 Ayman’s breakfast drink is tea, coffee or hot chocolate with probabilities 0.65, 0.28, 0.07 respectively.
When he drinks tea, the probability that he has milk in it is 0.8. When he drinks coffee, the probability
that he has milk in it is 0.5. When he drinks hot chocolate he always has milk in it. 9709/62/M/J/16

(i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]

(ii) Find the probability that Ayman’s breakfast drink is coffee, given that his drink has milk in it.
=0.192 [3]

20 The probability that the school bus is on time on any particular day is 0.6. If the bus is on time the
probability that Sam the driver gets a cup of coffee is 0.9. If the bus is not on time the probability that
Sam gets a cup of coffee is 0.3. 9709/61/M/J/16

(i) Find the probability that Sam gets a cup of coffee. = 0.66 [2]

(ii) Given that Sam does not get a cup of coffee, find the probability that the bus is not on time. [3]
= 0.824

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Immigration Visa Pas

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Immigration Visa Pas

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Probability

(i) Show that the value of p is 0.3.

(ii) Find P(R). [2]

(iii) Are events Q and R exclusive? Justify your answer. [2]

(iv) Are events Q and R independent? Justify your answer. [2]

Ravi goes on a ride.

(iii) Find the probability that he is frightened. [2]

(i) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information. [4]

(i) Find P(M ). [2]

(ii) Find P(M and E). [1]

(iii) Are M and E independent events? Justify your answer. [3]

(i) Find x. [4]

5 Two fair dice are thrown.

Soccer Hockey Total

(a) Find P A  B. [2]

(i) Estimate the probability of throwing a 4. p = 0.207 [1]

(ii) Find the value of x. x = 0.15 [2]

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(a) Find P A B. [2]