Cambridge International Examinations

Cambridge International Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level

MATHEMATICS
Paper 5 Probability & Statistics S1

Probability
1 Last Saturday, Sarah recorded the colour and type of 160 cars in a car park. All the cars that were not
red or silver in colour were grouped together as ‘other’. Her results are shown in the following table.

Type of car
Saloon Hatchback Estate
Red 20 40 12
Colour of car Silver 14 26 10
Other 6 24 8

(i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen car in the car park is a silver estate car. [1]
(ii) Find the probability that a randomly chosen car in the car park is a hatchback car. [1]
(iii) Find the probability that a randomly chosen car in the car park is red, given that it is a hatchback
car. [2]
(iv) One of the cars in the car park is chosen at random. Determine whether the events ‘the car is a
hatchback car’ and ‘the car is red’ are independent, justifying your answer. [2]
2 On each day that Tamar goes to work, he wears either a blue suit with probability 0.6 or a grey suit
with probability 0.4. If he wears a blue suit then the probability that he wears red socks is 0.2. If he
wears a grey suit then the probability that he wears red socks is 0.32.
(i) Find the probability that Tamar wears red socks on any particular day that he is at work. [2]
(ii) Given that Tamar is not wearing red socks at work, find the probability that he is wearing a grey
suit. [3]
3 The probability that it will rain on any given day is x. If it is raining, the probability that Aran wears
a hat is 0.8 and if it is not raining, the probability that he wears a hat is 0.3. Whether it is raining or
not, if Aran wears a hat, the probability that he wears a scarf is 0.4. If he does not wear a hat, the
probability that he wears a scarf is 0.1. The probability that on a randomly chosen day it is not raining
and Aran is not wearing a hat or a scarf is 0.36.
Find the value of x. [3]
4 Marco has four boxes labelled K , L, M and N . He places them in a straight line in the order K , L, M ,
N with K on the left. Marco also has four coloured marbles: one is red, one is green, one is white
and one is yellow. He places a single marble in each box, at random. Events A and B are defined as
follows.
A: The white marble is in either box L or box M .
B: The red marble is to the left of both the green marble and the yellow marble.
Determine whether or not events A and B are independent. [3]
5 The probability that the school bus is on time on any particular day is 0.6. If the bus is on time the
probability that Sam the driver gets a cup of coffee is 0.9. If the bus is not on time the probability that
Sam gets a cup of coffee is 0.3.

(i) Find the probability that Sam gets a cup of coffee. [2]

(ii) Given that Sam does not get a cup of coffee, find the probability that the bus is not on time. [3]
6 Ayman’s breakfast drink is tea, coffee or hot chocolate with probabilities 0.65, 0.28, 0.07 respectively.
When he drinks tea, the probability that he has milk in it is 0.8. When he drinks coffee, the probability
that he has milk in it is 0.5. When he drinks hot chocolate he always has milk in it.
(i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
(ii) Find the probability that Ayman’s breakfast drink is coffee, given that his drink has milk in it.
[3]
7 In a group of 30 adults, 25 are right-handed and 8 wear spectacles. The number who are right-handed
and do not wear spectacles is 19.
(i) Copy and complete the following table to show the number of adults in each category. [2]

Wears spectacles Does not wear spectacles Total

Right-handed

Not right-handed

Total 30

An adult is chosen at random from the group. Event X is ‘the adult chosen is right-handed’; event Y
is ‘the adult chosen wears spectacles’.
(ii) Determine whether X and Y are independent events, justifying your answer. [3]
8 Two identical biased triangular spinners with sides marked 1, 2 and 3 are spun. For each spinner, the
probabilities of landing on the sides marked 1, 2 and 3 are p, q and r respectively. The score is the
1 and
sum of the numbers on the sides on which the spinners land. You are given that P score is 6
= 36
P score is 5
= 19 . Find the values of p, q and r. [6]
9 A biased die has faces numbered 1 to 6. The probabilities of the die landing on 1, 3 or 5 are each
equal to 0.1. The probabilities of the die landing on 2 or 4 are each equal to 0.2. The die is thrown
twice. Find the probability that the sum of the numbers it lands on is 9. [4]
10 Jameel has 5 plums and 3 apricots in a box. Rosa has x plums and 6 apricots in a box. One fruit
is chosen at random from Jameel’s box and one fruit is chosen at random from Rosa’s box. The
probability that both fruits chosen are plums is 41 . Write down an equation in x and hence find x. [3]
11 A fair six-sided die is thrown twice and the scores are noted. Event X is defined as ‘The total of the
two scores is 4’. Event Y is defined as ‘The first score is 2 or 5’. Are events X and Y independent?
Justify your answer. [4]
12 Two ordinary fair dice are thrown and the numbers obtained are noted. Event S is ‘The sum of the
numbers is even’. Event T is ‘The sum of the numbers is either less than 6 or a multiple of 4 or both’.
Showing your working, determine whether the events S and T are independent. [4]
13 Megan sends messages to her friends in one of 3 different ways: text, email or social media. For each
message, the probability that she uses text is 0.3 and the probability that she uses email is 0.2. She
receives an immediate reply from a text message with probability 0.4, from an email with probability
0.15 and from social media with probability 0.6.
(i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
(ii) Given that Megan does not receive an immediate reply to a message, find the probability that the
message was an email. [4]
14 On Mondays, Rani cooks her evening meal. She has a pizza, a burger or a curry with probabilities
0.35, 0.44, 0.21 respectively. When she cooks a pizza, Rani has some fruit with probability 0.3.
When she cooks a burger, she has some fruit with probability 0.8. When she cooks a curry, she never
has any fruit.
(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
(b) Find the probability that Rani has some fruit. [2]
(c) Find the probability that Rani does not have a burger given that she does not have any fruit. [4]
15 A total of 500 students were asked which one of four colleges they attended and whether they preferred
soccer or hockey. The numbers of students in each category are shown in the following table.

Soccer Hockey Total

Amos 54 32 86
Benn 84 72 156
Canton 22 56 78
Devar 120 60 180
Total 280 220 500

(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student is at Canton college and prefers hockey.
[1]
(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student is at Devar college given that he prefers
soccer. [2]
(c) One of the students is chosen at random. Determine whether the events ‘the student prefers
hockey’ and ‘the student is at Amos college or Benn college’ are independent, justifying your
answer. [2]
16 Juan goes to college each day by any one of car or bus or walking. The probability that he goes by
car is 0.2, the probability that he goes by bus is 0.45 and the probability that he walks is 0.35. When
Juan goes by car, the probability that he arrives early is 0.6. When he goes by bus, the probability
that he arrives early is 0.1. When he walks he always arrives early.
(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information. [2]
(b) Find the probability that Juan goes to college by car given that he arrives early. [4]
17 In the region of Arka, the total number of households in the three villages Reeta, Shan and Teber is 800.
Each of the households was asked about the quality of their broadband service. Their responses are
summarised in the following table.
Quality of broadband service
Excellent Good Poor
Reeta 75 118 32
Village Shan 223 177 40
Teber 12 60 63

(i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen household is in Shan and has poor broadband
service. [1]
(ii) Find the probability that a randomly chosen household has good broadband service given
that the household is in Shan. [2]
18 Janice is playing a computer game. She has to complete level 1 and level 2 to finish the game. She is
allowed at most two attempts at any level.
• For level 1, the probability that Janice completes it at the first attempt is 0.6. If she fails at her first
attempt, the probability that she completes it at the second attempt is 0.3.
• If Janice completes level 1, she immediately moves on to level 2.
• For level 2, the probability that Janice completes it at the first attempt is 0.4. If she fails at her first
attempt, the probability that she completes it at the second attempt is 0.2.
(a) Show that the probability that Janice moves on to level 2 is 0.72. [1]
(b) Find the probability that Janice finishes the game. [3]
(c) Find the probability that Janice fails exactly one attempt, given that she finishes the game. [4]
19 Hanna buys 12 hollow chocolate eggs that each contain a sweet. The eggs look identical but Hanna
knows that 3 contain a red sweet, 4 contain an orange sweet and 5 contain a yellow sweet. Each
of Hanna’s three children in turn randomly chooses and eats one of the eggs, keeping the sweet it
contained.
(a) Find the probability that all 3 eggs chosen contain the same colour sweet. [4]
(b) Find the probability that all 3 eggs chosen contain a yellow sweet, given that all three children
have the same colour sweet. [2]
(c) Find the probability that at least one of Hanna’s three children chooses an egg that contains an
orange sweet. [3]
20 Sajid is practising for a long jump competition. He counts any jump that is longer than 6 m as a success.
On any day, the probability that he has a success with his first jump is 0.2. For any subsequent jump,
the probability of a success is 0.3 if the previous jump was a success and 0.1 otherwise. Sajid makes
three jumps.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate this information, showing all the probabilities. [2]
(b) Find the probability that Sajid has exactly one success given that he has at least one success. [5]
On another day, Sajid makes six jumps.
(c) Find the probability that only his first three jumps are successes or only his last three jumps are
successes. [3]
21 A children’s wildlife magazine is published every Monday. For the next 12 weeks it will include a
model animal as a free gift. There are five different models: tiger, leopard, rhinoceros, elephant and
buffalo, each with the same probability of being included in the magazine.
Sahim buys one copy of the magazine every Monday.
(a) Find the probability that the first time that the free gift is an elephant is before the 6th Monday.
[2]
(b) Find the probability that Sahim will get more than two leopards in the 12 magazines. [3]
(c) Find the probability that after 5 weeks Sahim has exactly one of each animal. [3]
22 A sports event is taking place for 4 days, beginning on Sunday. The probability that it will rain on
Sunday is 0.4. On any subsequent day, the probability that it will rain is 0.7 if it rained on the previous
day and 0.2 if it did not rain on the previous day.
(a) Find the probability that it does not rain on any of the 4 days of the event. [1]
(b) Find the probability that the first day on which it rains during the event is Tuesday. [2]
(c) Find the probability that it rains on exactly one of the 4 days of the event. [3]
23 Jasmine throws two ordinary fair 6-sided dice at the same time and notes the numbers on the uppermost
faces. The events A and B are defined as follows.
A: The sum of the two numbers is less than 6.
B: The difference between the two numbers is at most 2.
(a) Determine whether or not the events A and B are independent. [4]
(b) Find P B | A′
. [3]
24 When Anya goes to school, the probability that she walks is 0.3 and the probability that she cycles
is 0.65; if she does not walk or cycle she takes the bus. When Anya walks the probability that she
is late is 0.15. When she cycles the probability that she is late is 0.1 and when she takes the bus the
probability that she is late is 0.6. Given that Anya is late, find the probability that she cycles. [5]