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2411 CoreLogic December HousingChartPack Report FINAL

The December 2024 Monthly Housing Chart Pack from CoreLogic highlights that Australia's residential real estate market is valued at $11.1 trillion, with a significant portion of household wealth tied to housing. National home values increased by 0.5% over the past three months but showed a slower annual growth rate of 5.5%, particularly in capital cities where values rose only 0.3%. Sales volumes are down 4.0% compared to the previous five-year average, indicating a cooling market despite some regional areas experiencing growth.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
19 views41 pages

2411 CoreLogic December HousingChartPack Report FINAL

The December 2024 Monthly Housing Chart Pack from CoreLogic highlights that Australia's residential real estate market is valued at $11.1 trillion, with a significant portion of household wealth tied to housing. National home values increased by 0.5% over the past three months but showed a slower annual growth rate of 5.5%, particularly in capital cities where values rose only 0.3%. Sales volumes are down 4.0% compared to the previous five-year average, indicating a cooling market despite some regional areas experiencing growth.

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Monthly

Housing
Chart Pack
Unlocking smarter
property decisions

December 2024
1 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
Residential Real Estate Underpins
Australia’s Wealth

# $
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

$11.1 Trillion NUMBER OF DWELLINGS OUTSTANDING MORTGAGE DEBT

11.3 Million $2.3 Trillion

%
AUSTRALIAN SUPERANNUATION

$4.1 Trillion HOUSEHOLD WEALTH


HELD IN HOUSING

AUSTRALIAN LISTED STOCKS 56.3%


$3.3 Trillion

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

$1.2 Trillion

Source: CoreLogic, RBA, APRA, ASX


TOTAL SALES P.A.

527,688 $492.4 Billion


$
GROSS VALUE OF SALES P.A.

2 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
OVERVIEW

Australian dwelling values

3 MONTHS 12 MONTHS CAPITAL CITIES

0.5% 5.5% 0.3%


National home values rose The annual pace of growth Capital city home value trends
0.5% in the three months to slowed for the ninth are softer than in the
November. The pace of consecutive month, with combined regional market. The
growth has slowed values up 5.5% over the combined capital city market
considerably from a recent year to November. This is rose 0.3% in the three months
high of 2.2% in the three the lowest annual rise since to November, compared to a
months to April. the 12 months to 1.1% lift in the regions.
September 2023 (4.4%).

3 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
AUSTRALIAN DWELLING VALUES

3 month changes
Change in dwelling values, three months to November 2024 Rolling quarterly change in dwelling values

Combined Capitals Combined Regionals


Australia 0.5%
AUSTRALIA Combined regionals 1.1% 10%

0.5%
Combined capitals 0.3%
8%
Regional NT -3.9%
Regional TAS 1.5% 6%
Regional WA 3.3%
Regional SA 2.8%
4%
COMBINED Regional QLD 1.8%
REGIONALS Regional Vic -0.9%
2%

1.1%
Regional NSW 0.6% 1.1%

Canberra
0% 0.3%
-0.3%
Darwin -0.7%
Hobart 0.4% -2%
Perth 3.0%
COMBINED
Adelaide 2.8% -4%
CAPITALS
Brisbane 1.8%

0.3% Melbourne
Sydney
-1.0%
-0.5%
-6%
Nov 14 Nov 16 Nov 18 Nov 20 Nov 22 Nov 24

4 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
AUSTRALIAN DWELLING VALUES

12 month changes
Change in dwelling values, twelve months to November 2024 Rolling annual change in dwelling values

Combined Capitals Combined Regionals


Australia 5.5%
AUSTRALIA Combined regionals 40%
6.0%

5.5%
Combined capitals 5.4%

Regional NT -4.8%
30%
Regional TAS 2.4%
Regional WA 17.1%
Regional SA 11.6%
COMBINED Regional QLD 10.9% 20%
REGIONALS Regional Vic -2.8%

6.0%
Regional NSW 3.2%

10%
Canberra -0.1%
Darwin
6.0%
0.9%
Hobart -1.0% 5.4%
Perth 21.0% 0%
COMBINED
Adelaide 14.0%
CAPITALS

5.4%
Brisbane 12.1%
Melbourne -2.3%
-10%
Sydney 3.3%
Nov 14 Nov 16 Nov 18 Nov 20 Nov 22 Nov 24

5 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
AUSTRALIAN DWELLING VALUES

Capital cities

Rolling quarterly change in values, dwellings Rolling quarterly change in values, dwellings

10%
12%
10% 8%

8% 6%
6%
4%
4% 3.0%
2.8% 2%
2% 1.8%
0% 0% 0.4%
-0.5% -0.3%
-2% -1.0% -0.7%
-2%
-4%
-6% -4%

-8% -6%
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin ACT

6 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
AUSTRALIAN DWELLING VALUES

Capital cities
Quarterly change in stratified hedonic dwellings index (3 months to November)

4.7% 4.5%

3.1% 3.0% 3.1%


2.4% 2.4%
2.0% 1.8%
0.9% 1.2% 1.2%
0.5% 0.7%

-0.5% -0.4% -0.2% -0.3% -0.1%


-0.9% -0.8% Lowest 25%
-1.6% -1.4% of values

Middle 50%
-2.7% of values

Highest 25%
of values
25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th 25th 50th 75th

SYD MELB BRIS ADL PER HOB DAR ACT

7 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
Housing
cycles
Capital cities

8 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Rolling 28-day growth rate in


CoreLogic Daily Home Value index
Combined capital cities, rolling 28-day change

The rolling 28-day change in the 0.9%


combined capitals’ Home Value Index 0.8%
showed values were virtually flat the 28 0.7%
days to December 3rd. The combined 0.6%
capital cities index had been weighed 0.5%
down by Sydney and Melbourne, two 0.4%
large property markets that are currently 0.3%
in decline. 0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
The combined capital cities market has 0.0%
also seen an increase in total listings by -0.1%
around 16% through the spring peak,

Aug 2024
Apr 2024

Jun 2024

Oct 2024
Dec 2023

Feb 2024

Dec 2024
which has helped to soften price growth.

9 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Sydney

35%
In November, Sydney dwelling
values declined -0.2% 30%

25%

20%

-0.5%
Over the quarter dwelling values 15%
decreased by 10%

5%

0%

3.3%
Over the past year dwelling values
-5%
increased by
-10%

-15%
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Sydney dwelling values are now -0.5% below the
record high, which was in August 2024.
Quarterly Change Annual Change

10 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Melbourne
20%

-0.4%
In November, Melbourne dwelling
values declined 15%

10%

Over the quarter dwelling values


decreased by -1.0% 5%

0%

Over the past year dwelling values


decreased by -2.3% -5%

-10%
Melbourne dwelling values are now -5.5% below the Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
record high, which was in March 2022.
Quarterly Change Annual Change

11 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Brisbane

35%

In November, Brisbane dwelling


values rose by 0.6% 30%

25%

20%

Over the quarter dwelling values


increased by 1.8% 15%

10%

5%

12.1%
Over the past year dwelling values
0%
increased by
-5%

-10%
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Brisbane dwelling values are currently at a record
high. Quarterly Change Annual Change

12 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Adelaide
30%
In November, Adelaide dwelling
values rose by 0.8% 25%

20%

Over the quarter dwelling values


increased by 2.8% 15%

10%

5%

14.0%
Over the past year dwelling values
increased by 0%

-5%
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Adelaide dwelling values are currently at a record
high.
Quarterly Change Annual Change

13 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Perth
30%
In November, Perth dwelling
values rose by 1.1% 25%

20%

Over the quarter dwelling values


increased by 3.0% 15%

10%

5%
Over the past year dwelling values
increased by 21.0% 0%

-5%
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Perth dwelling values are currently at a record high.
Quarterly Change Annual Change

14 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Hobart
35%
In November, Hobart dwelling
values declined -0.1% 30%

25%

20%

0.4%
Over the quarter dwelling values 15%

increased by 10%

5%

0%

-1.0%
Over the past year dwelling values
-5%
decreased by
-10%

-15%
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Hobart dwelling values are now -12.1% below the
record high, which was in March 2022
Quarterly Change Annual Change

15 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Darwin

25%
In November, Darwin dwelling
values rose by 0.2% 20%

15%

Over the quarter dwelling values


decreased by -0.7% 10%

5%

0%
Over the past year dwelling values
increased by 0.9% -5%

-10%
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Darwin dwelling values are now -7.4% below the
record high, which was in May 2014.
Quarterly Change Annual Change

16 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CYCLES

Canberra

30%
In November, Canberra dwelling
values rose by 0.1% 25%

20%

15%
Over the quarter dwelling values
decreased by -0.3% 10%

5%

Over the past year dwelling values


-0.1%
0%

decreased by
-5%

-10%
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Canberra dwelling values are now -6.5% below the
record high, which was in May 2022. Annual Change
Quarterly Change

17 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
Sales and
listings

18 © 2023
2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
NATIONAL SALES

CoreLogic estimates there were 42,771 sales nationally in November, taking the annual count to 527,688. At this stage,
spring sales volumes for 2024 are sitting -4.0% lower than the previous five-year average, and the rolling six-month
trend in home sales has also moved lower.

Change in sales volumes, twelve months to November 2024 Monthly sales with six month moving average, National

National 8.0% Monthly sales volume 6 month moving average


AUSTRALIA Combined regionals 8.3%
Combined capitals 7.8%

8.0% Regional NT 2.7%


60,000

Regional TAS 6.7%


Regional WA 23.7%
Regional SA 12.0% 50,000 5 year average
COMBINED Regional QLD 4.3%
REGIONALS Regional Vic 9.8%

8.3%
Regional NSW 8.7%
40,000

Canberra 7.5%
Darwin 24.1%
Hobart 4.5% 30,000
COMBINED Perth 5.2%
CAPITALS Adelaide 12.9%

7.8%
Brisbane 5.1%
Melbourne 12.1% 20,000
Sydney 5.7% Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24

Note: recent months of sales volumes are modelled estimates, and are subject to revision

19 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET
Nationally, homes took longer to sell through spring. Median days on market in the three months to November ticked up to
32 days, up from 28 days through the three months to August, and 27 days in the spring of 2023. The increase in selling
times has coincided with higher stock levels, and softer sales volumes year-on-year. The median time on market
increased by four days year-on-year across both the combined capital cities and regional market.
Median days on market – three months to November 2024 Median days on market

75

AUSTRALIA National 32
27
Combined regionals 40

32 27
36 65
Combined capitals 28
24

Regional NT 91
94.5 55
Regional TAS 50
37
Regional WA 21
26
COMBINED Regional SA 44
46 45
REGIONALS Regional QLD 29
26
Regional Vic 59 40

40 36
43
Regional NSW 46
46 35

Canberra 43
40 28
Darwin 57.5
61.5 25
Hobart 40
27
COMBINED Perth 12
10
CAPITALS Adelaide 27
30 Nov-24 15
Brisbane 22

28 24
17
Melbourne 38 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
29 Nov-23
Sydney 34 Combined regionals Combined capitals
29

20 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
VENDOR DISCOUNT

Despite slower growth in housing values, higher days on market and higher stock levels, the median vendor discount
through spring nationally was steady compared to spring last year, at -3.6%. The rate was also steady in the combined
capitals over the same period and declined marginally across the combined regional market.

Median vendor discount – three months to November 2024 Median vendor discount

AUSTRALIA Nov-24 -3.6% National


-3.6% -2%

-3.6%
-3.8% Combined regionals
Nov-23 -3.9%
-3.3% Combined capitals
-3.3%

-3.6% -5.3%
-4.9%
-3.8%
Regional NT
Regional TAS
-3%
-4.3%
-3.0% Regional WA -3.3%
-3.7%
COMBINED -3.8% Regional SA
-4.5%
REGIONALS -3.4% Regional QLD
-3.8%
-3.7% -4%
-3.8% -4.4%
-4.2%
-3.8%
-3.9%
Regional Vic
Regional NSW

-3.9% -4.5%
-3.3%
-3.3% Canberra -5%
-4.4% Darwin
-3.7% Hobart
COMBINED -4.3%
-2.9% Perth
CAPITALS -2.9%
-3.6% Adelaide
-3.3%
-3.3% -6%
-2.9% Brisbane
-3.0% Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
-3.7% Melbourne
-3.6%

-3.3% -3.3%
-3.5% Sydney
Combined regionals Combined capitals

21 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
LISTINGS

The rolling 28-day count in national new listings peaked over the four weeks to November 10th at 45,878 and has
trended lower as the spring selling season ends. New listings over the four weeks to December 1st were down -0.2%
over the year and -4.0 lower than the historic five-year average.

Number of new listings, National Dwellings

New listings over


the 4 weeks ending 50,000
December 1
45,000

40,060 40,000

35,000
Compared to 30,000
same time last
year 25,000

20,000
-0.2% 15,000

10,000
Compared to
5,000
5-year average
0

-4.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2022 2023 2024 Previous 5yr average

22 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
LISTINGS
At the national level, there were 156,151 total listings observed over the four weeks to December 1st. Since the end of winter,
total listings levels have risen 10.6% to be 2.3% above this time last year and just -9.7% below the previous five-year
average. At the end of winter, listing levels were approximately -13% below the historical average.

Number of total listings, National Dwellings

Total listings over


the 4 weeks ending 200,000
December 1
180,000

156,151 160,000

140,000

120,000
Compared to
same time last 100,000
year
80,000

2.3% 60,000

40,000

Compared to 20,000
5-year average
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-9.7% 2022 2023 2024 Previous 5yr average

23 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
LISTINGS
For the first time in 2024, Perth’s total listing levels were above those seen at the same time last year (1.2%) over the four
weeks to December 1st, following a roughly 34% increase in total listings over the spring selling season. Despite total
listings rising 31.1% since the end of winter, Adelaide's total listing count remains -1.7% below those recorded this time last
year.
New listings, change from equivalent period last year Total listings, change from equivalent period last year

AUSTRALIA 1.2% Sydney AUSTRALIA 9.5% Sydney

-4.7% Melbourne 5.3% Melbourne

-0.2% 1.7% Brisbane 2.3% 6.3% Brisbane

-4.8% Adelaide -1.7% Adelaide

12.7% Perth 1.2% Perth

-28.5% Hobart -15.3% Hobart

COMBINED -3.8% Darwin COMBINED -29.0% Darwin


REGIONALS 6.3% Canberra REGIONALS 1.2% Canberra

-1.1% 1.7% Rest of NSW -0.9% 3.5% Rest of NSW


-1.8% Rest of Vic 7.5% Rest of Vic
-4.1% Rest of Qld. -6.6% Rest of Qld.
-11.2% Rest of SA -10.0% Rest of SA
COMBINED COMBINED
CAPITALS 7.2% Rest of WA CAPITALS -16.6% Rest of WA
Rest of Tas
4.7%
-1.4% -3.1% Rest of Tas

0.3% Rest of NT -7.6% Rest of NT

Data is for the four weeks ending 1 December

24 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
WEEKLY CLEARANCE RATES

The combined capital cities clearance rate trended lower through spring 2024. In the four weeks to November 24, the final
weighted clearance rate averaged 57.3% across the combined capitals, down from 62.7% in the first four weeks of spring.
The falling clearance rate is another indicator of a slight slowdown in housing market conditions.
Weekly clearance rates, combined capital cities

Number of auctions (RHS) Auction clearance rate (LHS) Auction clearance rate, 4 week average (LHS)

90% 6,000

80%
5,000
70%

Auction volumes
60% 4,000
Clearance Rate

50%
3,000
40%

30% 2,000

20%
1,000
10%

0% 0
Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-22 Nov-23 Nov-24

25 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
Rental market

26 © 2023
2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
RENTAL RATES

Rental growth continued to slow nationally, with rents up 5.3% over the 12 months to November – the slowest annual
change since April 2021. Over the three months to October, capital city rents rose only marginally (0.2%), while regional
rental values saw a stronger 0.9% lift.

Annual change in rental rates to November 2024 Annual change in rental rates - National

National 5.3%
AUSTRALIA Combined regionals 6.3%
11%

5.3%
Combined capitals 5.0%
10%
Regional NT -3.5%
9%
Regional TAS 3.7%
Regional WA 10.1% 8%
Regional SA 5.5% 7%
COMBINED Regional QLD 6.5%
REGIONALS Regional Vic 6%
5.3%

6.3%
Regional NSW 6.0% 5.3%
5%

Canberra
4%
2.3%
Darwin 2.7% 3%
Hobart 5.9%
2%
COMBINED Perth 8.9%
CAPITALS Adelaide 7.1% 1%

5.0%
Brisbane 3.6% 0%
Melbourne 5.0% Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Sydney 3.8%

27 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
RENTAL YIELDS
In November, national gross rent yields remained at 3.7%, marking two years of rent yields holding at this level. However,
the easing in rent growth amid multi-speed value growth conditions has resulted in strong variation across cities. Over
the past year, rent yields have fallen in high capital growth markets like Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, trended higher in
Canberra, Darwin, Hobart and Melbourne, and were steady in Sydney.
Gross rental yields, November 2024 Gross rental yields

National 3.7%
AUSTRALIA Combined regionals 4.4%
Combined capitals 3.5% 4.5%

3.7% Regional NT
Regional TAS
7.7%
4.0%
4.4%
Regional WA 6.0%
Regional SA 4.6% 3.67%
COMBINED Regional QLD 4.4% 3.5%
REGIONALS Regional Vic 4.3%

4.4%
Regional NSW 4.1%
3.0%
Canberra 4.0%
Darwin 6.8%
Hobart 4.3% 2.5%
COMBINED Perth 4.2%
CAPITALS Adelaide 3.7%

3.5%
Brisbane 3.6% 2.0%
Melbourne 3.7% Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24
Sydney 3.0%

28 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
Dwelling approvals
& housing credit

29 © 2023
2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
DWELLING APPROVALS

Dwelling approvals rose 4.2% in the month of October, but the detail between houses and units show mixed results.
National unit approvals rose sharply in October, but tend to be a more volatile series, and remain -14.6% below the
decade average. By contrast national house approvals fell -5.0% over the month, but are just -4.6% below the 10-year
average.
Monthly house v unit approvals, National

16,000

14,000
Decade
average,
12,000
houses

10,000

8,000

6,000

Decade
4,000
average, units

2,000
Oct 94 Oct 97 Oct 00 Oct 03 Oct 06 Oct 09 Oct 12 Oct 15 Oct 18 Oct 21 Oct 24

Houses Units

Source: ABS

30 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
FINANCE & LENDING

After rising for seven consecutive months, the value of new home lending fell -0.3% in September to $30.2 billion. Both
investor (-1.0%) and first home buyer (-3.3%) financing declined over the month, while owner-occupier lending rose by
just 0.1%.
Monthly value of new finance commitments, total ($ millions) Portion of new lending for investment housing (excluding refinance)

$27,500 50%

45%
$22,500

$18,639 40%
38.3%
$17,500

35%
33.8%
$12,500 $11,571
30%

$7,500
25%

Owner occupiers
$2,500 Investors 20%
Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18 Sep 20 Sep 22 Sep 24 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18 Sep 20 Sep 22 Sep 24

Source: ABS

The ABS has discontinued the monthly lending indicator data set, a new quarterly data set will commence reporting in February.
31 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
INVESTORS & LENDING

Investors’ loan commitments comprised 38.3% of new loans secured in September, down slightly from the recent peak
recorded in July when 38.7% of new financing was for investors. Across the states, NSW (44.0%) continued to record the
highest portion of investor financing, followed by SA (41.1%) and QLD (40.0%). Investors as a % of housing finance
Investors as a portion of total lending (based on value, excluding refinancing) commitments by state September 2024

65% NSW 55% VIC QLD


55%
ACT 30.9%
55% 45% 45%
45% 40.0%
44.0% 35% 35% NT 32.1%
35% 31.7%
25% 25%
25% Tas 27.5%
15% 15% 15%

Sep 18
Sep 14

Sep 16

Sep 20

Sep 22

Sep 24
Sep 20
Sep 14

Sep 18
Sep 16

Sep 22

Sep 24
Sep 14

Sep 16

Sep 20

Sep 22

Sep 24
Sep 18

WA 37.1%

SA 41.1%
SA WA 55% TAS
55% 60% Qld 40.0%
45% 45%
41.1% 40% 37.1%
35% 35% Vic 31.7%

25% 20% 27.5%


25%
NSW 44.0%
15% 15%
0%
Sep 16
Sep 14

Sep 18

Sep 20

Sep 22

Sep 24

Sep 14

Sep 16

Sep 20

Sep 22
Sep 18

Sep 24
Aust 38.3%
Sep 18

Sep 24
Sep 14

Sep 16

Sep 20

Sep 22

Source: ABS

The ABS has discontinued the monthly lending indicator data set, a new quarterly data set will commence reporting in February.

32 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
FIRST HOME BUYERS

The value of first home buyer finance fell -3.3% in September to $5.2 billion. First-home buyers comprised 28.0% of the
value of owner-occupied lending, down from a recent peak of 30.0% in April but well above the historic decade average
of 24.9%.

First home buyers as a % of owner occupier housing finance commitments by state First home buyers as a % of owner occupier housing finance

commitments September 2024

45% ACT 32.2%

40% NT 29.3%

Tas 29.0%
35%

WA 28.6%
30%
SA 29.3%
25%
Qld 25.2%

20% Vic 33.1%

15% NSW 25.5%


Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24
Aust 28.0%
NSW Vic Qld SA WA

Source: ABS

The ABS has discontinued the monthly lending indicator data set, a new quarterly data set will commence reporting in February.

33 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
MORTGAGE RATES

Early 2025 rate cut looks RBA Cash Rate

increasingly unlikely 8%
7.25%

Cash rate settings – higher 7%

• The cash rate has now been held at 4.35% for a bit
over a year. 6%

• A cash rate reduction in the near term remains


unlikely. The monthly CPI report for October showed
5% 4.75%
core inflation (the trimmed mean) had an annual
increase of 3.5%, up from 3.2% in the year to 4.35%
September, indicating demand in the economy is still 4%
above supply capacity.
• The RBA governor stated in a recent address that
3%
current labour market conditions are “tighter than 2.50%
3.00%
what would be consistent with low and stable
inflation”, and the Board expects it will take longer for
2%
inflation to settle at target than in peer economies. 1.50%
• While a reduction in interest rates may boost housing
market activity, this could still be offset by 1%
affordability constraints, particularly in markets
where values rose strongly in 2024. 0.25% 0.10%
0%
Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16 Nov 18 Nov 20 Nov 22 Nov 24

34 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CREDIT

New variable rates for owner-occupiers and investors held firm in September, at 6.27% and 6.50%, respectively. The
spread between variable and short-term fixed rates has expanded, with owner occupiers short-term rates coming in
below the 6% mark(5.9%), while investor short-term rates have declined from 6.52% in June to 6.23% in September.

Average borrowing costs by borrower and loan type


Owner occupiers Investors

8.0% 8.0%

7.0% 7.0%
Variable rate Variable rate
Fixed rate, less than or equal to 3yrs Fixed rate, less than or equal to 3yrs
6.0% 6.0%
Fixed rate, greater than 3yrs Fixed rate, greater than 3yrs

5.0% 5.0%

4.0% 4.0%

3.0% 3.0%

2.0% 2.0%

1.0% 1.0%

Jun 22
Jun 20

Jun 21

Jun 23

Jun 24
Dec 19

Dec 20
Mar 21

Dec 22

Dec 23
Sep 19

Mar 20

Sep 21

Mar 24
Sep 20

Dec 21
Mar 22

Sep 22

Mar 23

Sep 23

Sep 24
Jun 23

Jun 24
Jun 20

Jun 22
Jun 21

Dec 23
Dec 19

Dec 21

Dec 22
Dec 20
Mar 21
Sep 19

Mar 20

Sep 21

Mar 24
Sep 20

Mar 22

Sep 22

Mar 23

Sep 23

Sep 24

Source: RBA

35 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
HOUSING CREDIT

Mortgage originations for ‘riskier’ types of lending remain historically low, but there are some signs lending policies might
be relaxing a little with the share of interest only and high LVR loans rising over the past nine months.

Interest-only lending has increased, comprising 20.3% of new loans secured in the June quarter. The recent uptick is likely
due to increased investor participation but is also potentially a sign of stretched affordability. The portion of owner-
occupier loans with a high LVR has also shifted higher from recent lows (9.2%), with APRA noting a growing take-up of
Commonwealth Government’s First Home Guarantee schemes, which covers up to 15% of the property value.
% of loans originated with a loan to % of loans originated with a debt to % of loans originated with an LVR
% of loans on interest only terms income ratio >=6x income ratio >=6x >=90%

14.1%
13.1%

12.7%
12.5%
11.0%

24.3%

12.0%
12.0%
20.4%

23.3%
23.1%

11.7%
20.3%

11.6%
10.3%

10.3%
10.1%

22.2%
10.0%

21.9%

10.8%

10.2%
19.9%

19.8%

18.9%

9.6%

9.5%

9.2%
19.4%

9.1%
9.1%
17.3%
19.3%

17.1%
8.2%
19.3%

16.4%
16.3%
16.3%

8.4%
16.0%
19.1%

19.0%

8.0%
19.0%
19.0%

15.1%
14.8%

7.7%
14.6%
7.1%
18.8%

7.0%

7.3%
6.6%
18.5%

18.5%

6.1%
6.1%

6.0%
18.3%

6.1%
18.2%

18.2%

5.7%

11.0%

5.23%
5.6%
18.2%

5.07%
18.0%

4.59%
4.49%

4.48%
4.52%
17.9%

4.9%
4.8%

3.93%
4.5%
17.5%

3.38%

3.22%
7.5%

2.99%

2.98%
3.21%
2.87%
2.77%

2.81%
2.52%

2.44%
3.2%

2.39%
3.2%

6.1%
3.2%

2.30%
2.32%
2.32%
5.7%
5.6%
2.9%

5.2%
2.8%

2.8%

5.0%

Jun 2020

Dec 2023
Jun 2022
Jun 2021

Jun 2024
Jun 2019

Dec 2021

Dec 2022

Jun 2023
Dec 2019

Dec 2020
Mar 2019

Mar 2020

Mar 2021

Mar 2022

Mar 2023

Mar 2024
Sep 2019

Sep 2020

Sep 2021

Sep 2022

Sep 2023
Jun 2020
Jun 2019
Oct 2019

Oct 2020

Jun 2021
Oct 2021

Jun 2022
Oct 2022

Jun 2023
Oct 2023

Jun 2024
Feb 2020

Feb 2021

Feb 2022

Feb 2023

Feb 2024

Jul 2019
Nov 2019

Nov 2021
Jul 2020
Nov 2020

Jul 2021

Jul 2022
Nov 2022

Jul 2023
Nov 2023
Mar 2022
Mar 2019

Mar 2020

Mar 2021

Mar 2023

Mar 2024

Owner occupiers
Investors
Source: APRA

36 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
CHART OF THE MONTH

How did spring sale numbers compare with historic


averages?
Nationally, CoreLogic estimates there were around 133,000 sales through spring 2024, -4.0% lower than the historic five-
year average. Spring sales volumes relative to the historic average vary depending on the market. Across the state
capitals, the difference ranges from -15.1% lower in Sydney, to 15.8% higher in Adelaide. This also mirrors the difference in
capital growth outcomes for spring.

Modelled sales volume by region


Spring 2024 Previous five-year average for spring (2019-23)
26,977

22,272
22,911

22,199

18,806
17,840
17,048
15,009

14,359
14,375

13,858

12,134

7,832
7,562

6,985
6,532

3,909

3,194
2,357

2,082
2,413

2,611

1,774
1,388
1,082

1,173
1,110

650

227

189
Regional Tas
Regional WA
Darwin

Regional SA
Canberra
Brisbane

Perth

Regional Vic
Melbourne

Regional Qld
Adelaide
Sydney

Hobart

Regional NSW

Regional NT
Source: CoreLogic. Note: recent months of sales volumes are modelled estimates, and are subject to revision.
37 © 2024 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. Proprietary and confidential
Guide to CoreLogic data in the Monthly Housing Chart Pack For access to the data, contact us.
Page Chart / insight Data description
Total sales per annum, gross value of sales per Total value of sales is the national, monthly modelled sales volume. Gross value of sales is the total value of sales in a 12 month period, lagged by three months to
2
annum. account for delays in sales information.
Snapshot of national quarterly and annual
3 Based on changes to the national CoreLogic Home Value Index.
change in dwelling values
4 Rolling quarterly change in dwelling values Rolling three-month change in CoreLogic Home Value Index, combined capitals and combined regional market.
4 Change in dwelling values, three months Snapshot of three-month change in CoreLogic Home Value Index, Australia wide, combined capital cities, combined regional market and the 15 GCCSA markets.
5 Rolling annual change in dwelling values Rolling 12-month change in CoreLogic Home Value Index, combined capitals and combined regional market.
5 Change in dwelling values, 12 months Snapshot of 12-month change in CoreLogic Home Value Index, Australia wide, combined capital cities, combined regional market and the 15 GCCSA markets.
6 Rolling quarterly change in dwelling values Rolling three-month change in CoreLogic Home Value Index for the eight capital city GCCSA markets.
Quarterly change in stratified hedonic Snapshot of three-month change in CoreLogic Stratified Home Value Index, for the eight capital city GCCSA markets. The stratum measured are the lowest 25%,
7
dwellings index middle 50% and top 25% of homes across each market.
Rolling 28-day growth rate in CoreLogic Daily
9 Based on the CoreLogic Daily Home Value Index for the combined capital cities market.
Home Value index
Columns are the rolling three-month change in the CoreLogic Home Value Index for each greater capital city market. Line on the chart is the rolling 12-month
10 to 17 Charts of housing cycles
change in the CoreLogic Home Value Index for each greater capital city market.
19 Change in sales volumes, twelve months Snapshot of the change in CoreLogic modelled sales volumes, measuring sales estimates in the past 12 months against the previous 12 month period.
Monthly sales with six month moving average,
19 The monthly change in sales volumes nationally, overlayed with a six-month moving average of the monthly growth rate.
National
A snapshot of the median time period that a dwelling goes from the initial listing date to the sale date. The median days on market observation is taken over a
20 Median days on market – bar chart
three-month period for each region. Chart displays the latest three-month period, as well as the same three month period in the previous year.
20 Median days on market – line chart A rolling three-month view of the median days on market observation across the combined capital city market and combined regional market.
A snapshot of the median discount from an initial listing price to the sale price. The median vendor discount observation is taken over a three-month period for
21 Median vendor discount – bar chart
each region. Chart displays the latest three-month period, as well as the same three month period in the previous year.
21 Median vendor discount – line chart A rolling three-month view of the median vendor discount observation across the combined capital city market and combined regional market.
A rolling count of properties newly added to the market for sale over the past four weeks. Chart overlays the rolling count for the current year, the previous year, and
22 Number of new listings, national dwellings
the previous five-year average. New listings exclude recently re-listed properties.
A rolling count of all properties on the market for sale over the past four weeks. Chart overlays the rolling count for the current year, the previous year, and the
23 Number of total listings, national dwellings
previous five-year average.
New and total listings, change from equivalent
24 The change in new and total listings in the latest four-week reporting period, compared with the equivalent period 12 months prior.
period last year
Weekly clearance rates, combined capital The weighted capital city CoreLogic weekly clearance rate, overlayed with a rolling, four-week average clearance rate. Columns represent weekly number of
25
cities auctions.
27 Annual change in rental rates - bar chart Snapshot of 12-month change in CoreLogic Hedonic Rent Value Index for Australia, combined capital cities, combined regional market and the 15 GCCSA markets.
27 Annual change in rental rates - line chart Rolling 12-month change in CoreLogic rent value index, national.
A snapshot of the latest monthly gross rent yields for Australia, combined capital cities, combined regional market and the 15 GCCSA markets. Gross rent yields are
28 Gross rental yields - bar chart
the current estimate of annualised rent income against the value of dwellings.
28 Gross rental yields - line chart Rolling monthly gross rent yields, Australia wide. Gross rent yields are the current estimate of annualised rent income against the value of dwellings.
Modelled sales volumes spring 2024 and 5yr
37 A look at modelled sales volumes through spring, compared to the same period for 2019-2023, averaged.
average
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Disclaimers
In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic Asia Pacific (ABN 67 087 759 171) (“CoreLogic”) has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic
does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any
other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any
liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data Western Australian Data


Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Resources) Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land
2024. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree Information Authority (2024) trading as Landgate.
that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability,
completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation,
Australian Capital Territory Data
liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage)
relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any
breach of the privacy laws. form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or
otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written
permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and
South Australian Data
Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.
© 2024 Copyright in this information belongs to the South Australian Government and the
South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or Tasmanian Data
completeness of the information or its suitability for purpose.
This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania.
The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania.
New South Wales Data
The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:
Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property
a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for
Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.
any particular purpose; and

Victorian Data b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any
loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.
The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the property sales data and reproduction of that
data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au
Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or
completeness of the licensed material and any person using or relying upon such information
does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability
whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.

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