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Introduction to Probabilistic Models

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67 views

Introduction to Probabilistic Models

Uploaded by

ayeshagorchani555
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Introduction to Probabilistic Models

What Are Probabilistic Models?


Probabilistic models are tools in statistics that help us make
predictions or decisions when there is uncertainty.
"We don’t know exactly what will happen, but we can guess how
likely something is to happen."

Basic Idea of Probability


Probability is about chances.
Example: Tossing a Coin
Possible outcomes: Heads or Tails
Each has a 50% chance (0.5 probability)

What Do Probabilistic Models Do?


They help us answer questions like:
 What is the chance it will rain tomorrow?
 What are the chances a student will pass an exam?
 What is the chance a customer will buy a product?

Components of a Probabilistic Model


🔹 Random Variables
Something that can take on different values randomly (e.g., dice rolls,
test scores)
🔹 Probability Distribution
A table or graph that shows all possible values and how likely each
one is

🔹 Outcomes & Events


 Outcome = one possible result (e.g., getting a 6 on a die)
 Event = group of outcomes (e.g., getting an even number)

🧠 Why Is It Useful in Quantitative Reasoning?


Quantitative reasoning means using numbers and logic to solve real-
life problems.
Probabilistic models help you:
 Make smart guesses about future events
 Understand risks and plan ahead
 Analyze data in business, science, medicine, and more

✅ Example
Let’s say in your class, 70% students pass a test.
A probabilistic model can help predict:
 How many students are likely to pass in another class?
 What’s the chance that a randomly selected student will pass?

🔍 In Simple Words:
A probabilistic model is like a smart guessing tool.
It uses numbers to guess how likely things are to happen when
you’re not 100% sure.
Bivariate Analysis, Scatter Plots, Simple Linear
Regression Models, and Correlation Analysis
1. Bivariate Analysis
Definition:
Bivariate analysis is a statistical method that involves the analysis of
two variables to determine the empirical relationship between them.

Brief Explanation:
 "Bi" means two
 "Variate" means variables
 So, bivariate analysis is a way to study the relationship between
two variables.

📝 Simple Example:
If students who study more get higher marks, then the two variables
(study time & marks) are related.

2. Scatter Plot
Definition:
A scatter plot is a type of graph that uses Cartesian coordinates to
display values for two variables, with each point representing a pair
of values.

Brief Explanation:
It shows dots for each pair of values
One variable is on the x-axis and the other on the y-axis

📝 Simple Example:
 Plot study time on x-axis and exam marks on y-axis.
 Each dot shows one student’s study time and marks.

📌 Why It’s Useful:


Helps us see patterns or relationships, like whether more study time
means more marks.

3. Simple Linear Regression Model


Definition:
A simple linear regression model is a statistical method used to
model the linear relationship between an independent variable and a
dependent variable.

Brief Explanation:
 Predict the value of one variable based on another
 Draws a straight line through the scatter plot that best fits the
data
 The line shows the trend/direction of the relationship

📝 Simple Example:
To predict marks based on how much a student studies, use simple
linear regression.

🔹 Note:
 "Simple" = uses two variables
 "Linear" = the relationship is a straight line
4. Correlation Analysis
Definition:
Correlation analysis is a statistical technique used to measure and
describe the strength and direction of the relationship between two
variables.

Brief Explanation:
Correlation result is between -1 and +1:
 +1 = strong positive relationship
 -1 = strong negative relationship
 0 = no relationship

📝 Simple Example:
If study time and marks have a correlation of +0.9, it means more
study time usually leads to higher marks.

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