Mixes): “CGNS30 + Kikand Keleaility” + Tilston; * Pebadlty emasines uanerauty oF evechs” - Most oF the Princes, Toawdles ark, UrCodain Such as -leads - Steg + Medelivg ~ TRe 1S thee types of uncartensties ONeskory me Tnhereat unditantie.s alike TASSIg AQ, TOnnat beter inthe Mrekess - Treducable @Epistiorc —m Depends on Krew eye, linitedion tn dates, asimptions (nm tRe analysis ~ hice Wavieg Sor foo Steel Samples * Sit Separds onthe nawbt of Saweples - Th G elutalole Leak estih addtvonal Gast: + Remember 2) - absalk reliability (saety) is Unalteinable ia inte Resende of uncertainties, = Structice selrability & always dealing ith uncer y FX coithSiz n Flbability Model” ea Density Tanctint* Paci gi Pavbil,. DExpernet: Gell defined action witli ackcowes = Tet: Steel Gupons Aakeoning Sy «Test Crete Seples—m Helerenrn fa + CoServe /Rord Yearly eax cariad Speed @ Sarge aq: SD. ledlion of oll posse oltanes of ekperteenest in Q ® Brads (E): Bleciion of ortrowes Fer eXomple = VS Seas} B= [$< eSgmb"} @ Paraloiliy Assgnmed's PE) atale that assigns anon -negatie nundety o< P(E) < 40 wee (E € 52) % Example: ©) Erqesineats Tess adit, “oleseive nuwity (N) onthe QR: {044 eve. Opword fa" gm. <1122,45:61 Seed pee ee Ore: PE)=g= Complex, Ey = {N72} 850) + S, Its Sac Seps af assigning Palebilily P eee le £, = N23} = (3456) 4 a + Nise, evgjinaertd) Prcability weeds Soe assertions y cq.” Observe The Fake Up OEipeinveat Toss adie “Ol - ei eS+ Glens Pay a Giticl Gle in Shructiral Reliability ° St trey Pavides the necessary event algebra + Yer Kronple + Az (23) Be f3 4S) “erect bardic bee KOB = [2,345] “dooitdoude Guetta” “A Union” Ane - {3} ers ee KTRe Grylemed of Ar itenes act in A K 3} =('A5,6) 4 KG BOs Poet es M2) gle Space.re Mataly Exclus Evert ANIB=< BD “disjoint evetts” Mts clicky Aes No Points of Qmmon * Evect hand Grrdt \ es P(AOB) = 6 % The Glilective exviousttie. events = avlop” AUS = §2 eH RAUB) =4 * Figpirg Gin * Gledielly exhaustive everts” : ee = + Bled A2B Should Grrr the aire Semple Heced Ve a SpaQ" V, Se ede: every Union Gu ee caren af dijetal Onton Aus = KOR v Lim coritten as dijeled Th WW £Sawe will ga fur 3 eve Aupuc = AUAEO REC ge Tndeprdest Beds. ers A 0 S Y avy atiy 99, Ya Schoo Fane Qpigg shipping; “Arey om Geyetly indopeadect cvects ond doen't affect aac aleeBe De Momgon's Latot ~ Consider ever Ei, Ex,Es,-- En ENENE--- En Nerthe E, or — =.t “NEE, and not £07 G...0r 6, BOW = gah Exand not - > & seed = Ce “Nat (Eand,) "Not Ep or Nec E, EOE, Ene > in HW” scTne faioms of Pelcabllity . Cpesimecd 1 SL Simple Spode AB € > PA), P(B) ST re 1. PIM) = Le , TPA ave milly exclusive Cosjorst) (AUB) = PCA) +P8) eyFeloabllity a A given Rat B clreocty Occared PCAOB) —m Pada of Band vine P(AIB) = PQ) —> Petey of * the Febability ona Teh 7 He Prebati) Hey | of B" ae Special Ge FL. independudl events; STE Kamel B are incegedual evedts P(ANB) =P). Pe) Pile) = ie = PA ¢ "Te tre eveds ont ndependocts, p(B) = oa Br rel ocart. cfone cbesott Pk) impoct the ofhe-one” The Gadition Protaataility Gi be crithen Such thick: (AQB) = P(AIB). P(8) P = — . are (ndependck PNB) = PIA) PIANB) - PA): P®@)= Sle: * Exanple: As\4,2,3,4,33 (ANB) = 5 (ANB) _© ete ys + Qke 9 mahually excusive Br Ord Slectivedy extnustive, » aes Soo) SL _ Bibya Gh Ue. S Pi) = > PLANS) PED Fave: P(A) = PCANB:) ¢ PUADR) + BCANEa) 4 + PATEN) = POAIB)) PLB) 4 PATEL) PLBr) 4 ~~ + P (ALEn) 08») = &pcAlsi) pwd “al Su. a nate, PLA) = PANS) se = Ci?) xthe inporlane of fe Total Rokeloiity thea % Sm“O= analysis: gcTRink of 5 as: Py) tre Pecability ct wang = * lability of Roairg of Cetlain uel cf dawsRe Carta lee) oF ae) ghee teat : : aspecific hatacd intersthy OCdrea’ = AlBi). Pi) See Quciioal Pobsbiities arethe itocuction ts the Gag sf j Fragility Tan chiens’ - (M=\). Ba me ee =X)ll SE QAeeting J CONSAGO: Rit and Selabilty o They of tht) Peckabitity: + QWer 9 mifuallyy excluctie Ord Olectivey exlpustire eels LS ranen - BANB=f - - JR -2 Pi) = D PAIBi) PB) Aa Wave: P(A) = P(ANB:) + P(ANB,) + B(ANBa) 4 + PAATEn) = PCAIB,) P(B) 4 PUAIB,) PLBr) 4 »-~ + © (AIBn) PLBn) = = Plas) pe) ae PIA) PANS) corere = Vii importane of tie Talal froketaltty theory or dee si. é = & pAlsi). Pi) \ = *Pobability oF ccauana, * Fobsbilily of Mowing of aspecific hatred Cartan level oF aa aSpecific hatacd tateusthy OCored” Pie deduction te the GLape Th Simple Sesmic GK ascwertialouilding & expird te eochnuek: Netterd Henn 8 differed Sowes Rr korka Hoo) =os, ESS F dame. From 7 NE Sug T™ P(OIL)=o8 Poll) =o! Ze ‘ Fatt TRS Valves Come Tran Stacivod TR han excel anb3ss (Fogility Arakysis ) Sout" «the Pebabilit, oF afult te genoke am cartiquake in the @miieg Year: * acecl ack Source HUNKnGr, PCT) zo | HR Gan area---” ae Sette Vethord aby: “usually Comes Sion Witkord Guves Prob » Qesten eA xknvoigg Mick L, TM are mclially exclugie « PG) - +3 PUL) = «4 oS corny 4 Deternig Hie Poowbility That 6 Kuilding will ke dowoded rock Seow "Troon THE Gin, oe On DP Satin Kily fhe teed Recast tie” get the Febabilty ee : oF a Grain Veter testy t \ te oltre.”Total Probably Heag : P(A) = PCAIB) PLB) Xi Pd) = POM) pa) + PHP ~ POM Pm +B (BINon) p(Nen) The tated Robosbility theag ondy applies iF the erty arg mabually exclusion and Glecteely exhuushde- camieh wtoms PCT) ¢ PM) +P GL) = 40 —> TS ast avich os We GSe P(DIN») POO) ¥ AHSe) PWD) = oA xe + ob KOZ FOIE + 0492 EeoeN “SA, § Teaghect Ans teen, He cil ast effect the Pees” Gebarjes Tes - Sone asswptions + Baek By are mutually exclusive and Gllechvedy exhuustivg dufined on 52 » Ais asbitvaty eve also definad on B) Pi) = P(BIA)PA gi) PABIPE) _ PAB) 5 (8) zh) PIN)Beh) _ a) rN eee NE) pe) ey Fn) re) — = Vier Yostenior c - Protoabiliky Lixdineod Proboaclity x Aapliction ete enitiqnake exonple, + Suppase Wchaye SHveral Sours of enctfquakes ®, 8, ,8;/--/Bn + We nade te pick are Sour (Bi) Goith Prelability -P (Gi) —e Trise + Keqosing that 1 Cerfain damage (AY Corn Yoppen to abuildivg PAD = pcg We likin of te dawage PAIBI) + He Can Know the Probability Fars Srcihie enethyuoke To Gus Somrage i Hie building... CBA) = Pslevor pooner al pity=e9 cil _ Soe 6 F(D)= 63 PCI) = 04 pcolm)=o1 «Suppose tc the loslig, 9st davageed by ox eevee «Ghat is the Rokabtity thot the EQ Grefom T, E) iPED) SreSo\— EK Sumter anolysis So, C Kein >) =| “The name of ths Process Us P(MID) = old an halp (Foe Tove many events, and - REx Deagyiegction frelyss+ ae canuld Vice Xo Know nich one of these eyed are smote effective to Them te offen t mot Ff tie cowage Gre Senn Fonetll) , Yowever, it VAs tess Segilty > P(DIL)-06 < PIPIT)=049 + Qs@5 Unified Vetoes, Tool & Exomple far RK Deoggregchion + Me The GrGpt oF Random Voribles ; » Th Stuckical Egiecerirg + Evers nuale Cgireari) Pamelor <>) es. ee (Vetere tS Variables ee ——— Defra of the tarde tall 6 * random Laciable &) is On Amat Gn be ASured Ary Numer Rise (or unertaw) bat oF Gales Tre Recise Gale § amped pt ne Guaclyized 1) Stabstvoh equlediions. Mths Papi Gets 0 Experiment @Ostees DQ @ Everts E Capilee muvtes V >4omls @ Pecbatilily Assignensa 2054—- Discee RV > Brinous RY The Petabilty Assgnmect Can be -—C TD Discete Rndon Vance: “Caurable auvaoge oF aukcowes PL Kx) = ROD =F. Od etic, Cashel v Teebdlel ty Mass “Wee State Valve oF He ——— Koack Fandom Uecuble vag Ti Coie alle futea) = P(K= 2) P(X <=) Re) = ee es do uit P(xX<) = to Be ce ae ett ce) Pe . ce D&wibukioy Sey, Srequets a Tanclion” 1” |‘ ne Q Mi Taitinile numle of ofG~es Pe - the Pekability fremrs must k be schitied Bar Gctinous KV @ o<&@) 6 Firs J] Zi) PL RZ) - Zero Tt Jairo OV R70) = re fet) v Paskvion Praloability ree ag Parabilty ~ Ranchons af Random Vociables? - Tor Gtondom Vertable % . IF Ysa) —e bs als amundou Variable J Function of any = So, whut does the dittedion of 7 | look like ? F, ) = P(9&) <) a8 lng a8 the PIYS9) Fauclian behiaeen Trews & smondlanié: Nee “mews fi) oP “Memof x” 00 a Xb dierte Rv: EQ): B KAPer all Xi 2 The KS named of Kene Siok Si Vevttin (Qu) $3 Civ = Vee SH‘ dinnilss « Other meosures of Gaol Tenens, Mean: YK shu = = Medion: <1, —e T(mtx) = 0:5 Moods? WG) = 5 —» Xo “rede aK "TF the dutibutton & Sywmaticn ap Mean = Mode = Mackin’ The Sketoness + Re "Joao ON aS | EL OM = 5 (x-Maf fod = S ee AES) TE Fay) ts Syrawelicc ELON J=6 : ” THiee nique Skacoress” 4 4 1 Po Gato Venus, KG = 4g Expeditions of Tinclions of Pardon Varilole sGeneral, Far No. PAE 20 oe (ocx, Ea) af - 0 0 | 9H 5-79) Fe Nf 2) fs Y =~ * ames Fpites of the cred une: E@x) = aE) E @thx) = at bE) 1 ES10)) = = Ge 4)) dat E (Wy, 80a) = TL, E Gio) EL9cy) 4 9(EO) 7 Ory tee BU 9G) 1G Veear Sanction # Jensen's Trequalily : € (90) < 9 (=) SS <0 > 9(Ee) FP ZO 1 Green" 905 = x* es, ts ey ae \ as ae EX) * Jeudly Deeibdled XK ond Y2 EeEy) = by Vor Q) = sy FeylX) EL cht) Garr (KY) = Desciitves tre Greater a it xy —xNy- Wx 4 Hahty eetuen &P) te xt vf SE (KY) My EO) eS Ba xte VY = £0) By bx. MyM eB @ 2 feos © Correlation CaefF 2: Dejy tases Vinene Stpenceng "Te & the qatedized Toon Se a RSH oF BromtnCe” 7 FF Syl= be * Variables orY) = Qver (YX) 2. Char (ax,7) = 0 -var (Ky) SB. Car (atx, bey) = War (X/¥) A. Gar (ax, bY) = alo Chor (47) TF two tardom veatloles (XY ¥) ane UnGrEO) =aR (9-0) Gwe (XY) = EGY)= ee (X77) Stahiahially indepedud’ 7 NYAS ee geen St ( ) sie oe | Commen Pobekilily Laws Nach Dit1} Sted Nowl Dilton s@) = . Rw ) §@se = Bey or ce Gw)+ Gea) = te — > duets Bw) = 4 Ca) Syme + Pobabililly assecietes atk only Nowmal RV Gr be diewrined Bye He Knucsledge of K(u) ond Ow) 3 Exaueples X = N (Mee ‘ x) gets 4 x < eS Ci P(a ee $elin CU) eee is Vite xoole: TF (Sor = Cee ae 1) + Op (2rx s) a & a = alsoF XC, that repress tHe onto 5 tie Passie ations Ci pa es y.p(saey= P 4 Suctes $” Eqs: EC) = Uae) = Sue GaP) Pod: : ig = Peas SPO ea ee E (en) = Z MNO) = (PiU -py.p = Pr(rpyt (rb ye = PO -p) LP+1-) ee) 1» Datay Srosed that 4 x Deorgl: see poe =e ee (oa) i pret) =2£ P&=s)= 1 wa Yoo Ave’ Cua (S loeaiQestan Ff %, that cepresert the vues ~ 1 trols Cheie 36 uctess ) out 6F ntials A he is flled S tres, Chak & the Pebubility of tres Prebskil ity mass Famation tends te ke minal ddtvbalies Sanction i ee P(X <*) = ae (2)7iG : a Geonatiic Dstwloation «is the ddwlbation of thenumls of tele Nadel te get the Sixes inYepecitecd Bernoulli thiols. Tile ore Gzeadect” , fbr P Gocese) = P {aoe = Glos © CRailue ) = 4-P F fails tothe mumby of als neoded Tegel Wie Rest Succes Si Sucess orOs Feliin Pevied L_,, occurance Prabulitly of aneveat P(x=2) = ras) + the expected Uobirg of X, hie, the number of tials needed te gh Succes™Wad descriped by a legnoma Coeff. of dorision » Covet Khe set Soe Tol Ree = (Vv > Se) = Lx oer Jv ee) GY moo ) a eno eee ee A - Sha Vis egnermal 6 ( = = 0.98 a Ast oe eye) = 58.6 5 = Tha P\n lise) = 088 mate W gens —~ 4='V (nVse- . 5 ( e=%) Bee lass ry = , & ©) =\ Insy by BOM) & AV = iB _ 24S + HOH w Vso = xp (44%) = St24 mp (ASCE Us Gong)thie Pebablity of thet Sist Sch andl cars ain SIC Ln *GomdicDiinitns (XS) ® Whats OG< >) 5— mAs (<= Zeer pase : Piced) + Sine thts a Seyr eve —e P= li = cane CO L250 7 this eveat Vappen inva aSuccess afte So Sr™ 2 Prov eod: es 0102 £a8 902.1088 PRWSS) = + Koc = 9.096 + acres ae EGO) ao He (A ous 0.0% Ate Faboboility F nding, Uso = SHAM oitin S years 046 ris Tre oe Aiiok Sou wacty Mode ang EXCeedon_ . Biironial Ovstetaitin e00L +0.48