A Survey of Probability Concepts

Chapter 5

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008

 ⚫ RECENT SURVEYS indicate 60% of tourists to China
visited the Forbidden City, the Temple of Heaven, the Great
Wall, and other historical sites in or near Beijing. 40% visited
Xi’an and its magnificent terra-cotta soldiers, horses, and
chariots, which lay buried for over 2,000 years. 30% of the
tourists went to both Beijing and Xi’an.
What is the probability that a tourist visited at least one of
these places?

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 GOALS

⚫ LO5-1 Define the terms probability, experiment, event, and

outcome.
⚫ LO5-2 Assign probabilities using a classical, empirical, or
subjective approach.
⚫ LO5-3 Calculate probabilities using the rules of addition.
⚫ LO5-4 Calculate probabilities using the rules of
multiplication.
⚫ LO5-5 Compute probabilities using a contingency table.
⚫ LO5-6 Calculate probabilities using Bayes’ theorem.
⚫ LO5-7 Determine the number of outcomes using principles
of counting.
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 Definitions

⚫ A probability is a measure of the likelihood that an

event in the future will happen. It can only assume
a value between 0 and 1.

⚫ A value near zero means the event is not likely to

happen. A value near one means it is likely.

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 Probability Examples
➢ The likelihood of an event is expressed using the term odds.
➢ To explain, someone says the odds are “five to two” that an event will occur.
This means that in a total of seven trials (5 + 2), the event will occur five times
and not occur two times. If the odds in favor of an event are x to y, the
probability of the event is x/(x + y).

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 Definitions

⚫ An experiment is a process that leads

to the occurrence of one and only one
of several possible results.
⚫ An outcome is the particular result of
an experiment.
⚫ An event is the collection of one or
more outcomes of an experiment.
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 Experiments, Events and Outcomes

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–1

RedLine Productions recently developed a new video game. Its

playability is to be tested by 80 veteran game players.

(a) What is the experiment?

(b) What is one possible outcome?
(c) Suppose 65 of the 80 players testing the new game said they
liked it. Is 65 a probability?
(d) The probability that the new game will be a success is
computed to be −1.0. Comment.
(e) Specify one possible event.

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–1

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 Approaches to Assigning Probabilities

Three approaches to assigning probabilities

– Classical
– Empirical
– Subjective

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 Classical Probability

Classical probability is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an

experiment are equally likely.

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 Classical Probability

Consider an experiment of rolling a six-sided die. What is the probability of

the event “an even number of spots appear face up”?
The possible outcomes are:

There are three “favorable” outcomes (a two, a four, and a six) in the
collection of six equally likely possible outcomes.

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 Mutually Exclusive Events

⚫ Events are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of

any one event means that none of the others can
occur at the same time.
⚫ Events are independent if the occurrence of one
event does not affect the occurrence of another.
⚫ If an experiment has a set of events that includes
every possible outcome, such as the events “an
even number” and “an odd number” in the die-
tossing experiment, then the set of events is
collectively exhaustive.
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 Empirical Probability

The empirical approach to probability is based on what is

called the law of large numbers.
The key to establishing probabilities empirically is that more
observations will provide a more accurate estimate of the
probability.

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 Law of Large Numbers

Suppose we toss a fair coin. The result of each toss is either a head or a
tail. If we toss the coin a great number of times, the probability of the
outcome of heads will approach .5. The following table reports the
results of an experiment of flipping a fair coin 1, 10, 50, 100, 500,
1,000 and 10,000 times and then computing the relative frequency of
heads

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 Empirical Probability - Example

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 Subjective Probability - Example

⚫ If there is little or no past experience or information on which to

base a probability, it may be arrived at subjectively.

⚫ Illustrations of subjective probability are:

1. Estimating the likelihood the New England Patriots will play in the
Super Bowl next year.
2. Estimating the likelihood you will be married before the age of 30.
3. Estimating the likelihood the U.S. budget deficit will be reduced by
half in the next 10 years.

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 Summary of Types of Probability

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–2

1. One card will be randomly selected from a standard 52-card

deck. What is the probability the card will be a queen? Which
approach to probability did you use to answer this question?
2. The Center for Child Care reports on 539 children and the
marital status of their parents. There are 333 married, 182
divorced, and 24 widowed parents. What is the probability a
particular child chosen at random will have a parent who is
divorced? Which approach did you use?
3. What is the probability you will save one million dollars by the
time you retire? Which approach to probability did you use to
answer this question?

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–2

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 Rules for Computing Probabilities

Rules of Addition
⚫ Special Rule of Addition - If two events
A and B are mutually exclusive, the
probability of one or the other event’s
occurring equals the sum of their
probabilities.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

⚫ The General Rule of Addition - If A and

B are two events that are not mutually
exclusive, then P(A or B) is given by
the following formula:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

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 Joint Probability – Venn Diagram

JOINT PROBABILITY A probability that

measures the likelihood two or more events
will happen concurrently.

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 Addition Rule - Example

What is the probability that a card chosen at

random from a standard deck of cards will be
either a king or a heart?

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

= 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52
= 16/52, or .3077
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 The Complement Rule

The complement rule is used to

determine the probability of an
event occurring by subtracting
the probability of the event not
occurring from 1.
P(A) + P(~A) = 1
or P(A) = 1 - P(~A).

The probability that a bag of mixed vegetables

selected is underweight, P(A), plus the
probability that it is not an underweight bag,
written P(∼A) and read “not A,” must logically
equal 1.
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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–3

A sample of employees of Worldwide Enterprises is to be surveyed about

a new health care plan. The employees are classified as follows:
Classification Event Number of Employees
Supervisors A 120
Maintenance B 50
Production C 1,460
Management D 302
Secretarial E 68
(a) What is the probability that the first person selected is:
(i) either in maintenance or a secretary? (ii) not in management?
(b) Draw a Venn diagram illustrating your answers to part (a).
(c) Are the events in part (a)(i) complementary or mutually exclusive or
both?

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–3

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–4

Routine physical examinations are conducted annually as part of a

health service program for General Concrete Inc. employees. It was
discovered that 8% of the employees need corrective shoes, 15%
need major dental work, and 3% need both corrective shoes and
major dental work.
(a) What is the probability that an employee selected at random will
need either corrective shoes or major dental work?
(b) Show this situation in the form of a Venn diagram.

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–4

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 Special Rule of Multiplication

⚫ The special rule of multiplication

requires that two events A and B are
independent.
⚫ Two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence of one has no effect on the
probability of the occurrence of the other.
⚫ This rule is written: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

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 Multiplication Rule-Example

A survey by the American Automobile association

(AAA) revealed 60 percent of its members made
airline reservations last year. Two members are
selected at random. What is the probability both
made airline reservations last year?
Solution:
The probability the first member made an airline reservation last year is
.60, written as P(R1) = .60
The probability that the second member selected made a reservation is
also .60, so P(R2) = .60.
Since the number of AAA members is very large, you may assume that
R1 and R2 are independent.

P(R1 and R2) = P(R1)P(R2) = (.60)(.60) = .36

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–5

From experience, Teton Tire knows the probability is .95 that a particular
XB-70 tire will last 60,000 miles before it becomes bald or fails. An
adjustment is made on any tire that does not last 60,000 miles. You
purchase four XB-70s. What is the probability all four tires will last at
least 60,000 miles?

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 Conditional Probability

A conditional probability is the probability

of a particular event occurring, given
that another event has occurred.

The probability of the event A given that

the event B has occurred is written
P(A|B).
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 General Multiplication Rule

The general rule of multiplication is used to find the joint probability that two
events will occur.

Use the general rule of multiplication to find the joint probability of

two events when the events are not independent.

It states that for two events, A and B, the joint probability that both events
will happen is found by multiplying the probability that event A will
happen by the conditional probability of event B occurring given that A
has occurred.

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 General Multiplication Rule - Example

A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet. Suppose 9

of these shirts are white and the others blue. He
gets dressed in the dark, so he just grabs a shirt
and puts it on. He plays golf two days in a row
and does not do laundry.
What is the likelihood both shirts selected are
white?

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 General Multiplication Rule - Example

⚫ The event that the first shirt selected is white is W1. The
probability is P(W1) = 9/12
⚫ The event that the second shirt selected is also white is
identified as W2. The conditional probability that the
second shirt selected is white, given that the first shirt
selected is also white, is P(W2 | W1) = 8/11.
⚫ To determine the probability of 2 white shirts being
selected we use formula: P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A)
⚫ P(W1 and W2) = P(W1)P(W2 |W1) = (9/12)(8/11) = 0.55

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–6

The board of directors of Tarbell Industries consists of eight men and four
women. A four-member search committee is chosen at random to conduct
a nationwide search for a new company president.

(a) What is the probability all four members of the search committee will
be women?

(b) What is the probability all four members will be men?

(c) Does the sum of the probabilities for the events described in parts (a)
and (b) equal 1? Explain.

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–6

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 Bayes’ Theorem

⚫ Bayes’ Theorem is a method for revising a

probability given additional information.
⚫ It is computed using the following formula:

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 Bayes Theorem - Example

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 Bayes Theorem – Example (cont.)

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 Bayes Theorem – Example (cont.)

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 Bayes Theorem – Example (cont.)

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–9

Refer to the preceding example and solution.

(a) Design a formula to find the probability the part selected came from
Crawford Components, given that it was a good chip.

(b) Compute the probability using Bayes’ theorem.

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 S E L F - R E V I E W 5–9

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