DATA MINING

Outline

Definition, motivation & application

Branches of data mining
Classification, clustering, Association rule mining
Some classification techniques
 What Is Data Mining?

Data mining (knowledge discovery in databases):

– Extraction of interesting (non-trivial, implicit, previously
unknown and potentially useful) information or patterns from
data in large databases

Alternative names and their “inside stories”:

– Data mining: a misnomer?
– Knowledge discovery (mining) in databases (KDD), knowledge
extraction, data/pattern analysis, data archeology, business
intelligence, etc.
 Data Mining Definition

Finding hidden information in a database

Fit data to a model
Similar terms
– Exploratory data analysis
– Data driven discovery
– Deductive learning
 Motivation:

Data explosion problem

– Automated data collection tools and mature database technology lead

to tremendous amounts of data stored in databases, data warehouses
and other information repositories

We are drowning in data, but starving for knowledge!

Solution: Data warehousing and data mining

– Data warehousing and on-line analytical processing

– Extraction of interesting knowledge (rules, regularities, patterns,

constraints) from data in large databases
 Why Mine Data? Commercial Viewpoint

Lots of data is being collected

and warehoused
– Web data, e-commerce
– purchases at department/
grocery stores
– Bank/Credit Card
transactions

Computers have become cheaper and more powerful

Competitive Pressure is Strong
– Provide better, customized services for an edge (e.g. in Customer
Relationship Management)
 Why Mine Data? Scientific Viewpoint

Data collected and stored at

enormous speeds (GB/hour)
– remote sensors on a satellite
– telescopes scanning the skies
– microarrays generating gene
expression data
– scientific simulations
generating terabytes of data
Traditional techniques infeasible for raw data
Data mining may help scientists
– in classifying and segmenting data
– in Hypothesis Formation
 Examples: What is (not) Data Mining?

What is not Data Mining? What is Data Mining?

Certain names are more prevalent
– Look up phone in certain US locations (O’Brien,
number in phone
O’Rurke, O’Reilly… in Boston area)
directory
– Group together similar documents
– Query a Web search returned by search engine according
engine for to their context (e.g. Amazon
information about rainforest, Amazon.com)
“Amazon”
 Database Processing vs. Data Mining Processing

Query Query
– Well defined – Poorly defined
– SQL – No precise query language
– Data Data
– Operational data – Not operational data

Output Output
– Precise – Fuzzy
– Subset of database – Not a subset of database
 Query Examples

Database
– Find all credit applicants with last name of Smith.
– Identify customers who have purchased more than $10,000 in the
last month.
– Find all customers who have purchased milk

Data Mining
– Find all credit applicants who are poor credit risks. (classification)
– Identify customers with similar buying habits. (Clustering)

– Find all items which are frequently purchased with milk. (association
rules)
 Data Mining: Classification Schemes

Decisions in data mining

– Kinds of databases to be mined
– Kinds of knowledge to be discovered
– Kinds of techniques utilized
– Kinds of applications adapted

Data mining tasks

– Descriptive data mining
– Predictive data mining
 Decisions in Data Mining

Databases to be mined
– Relational, transactional, object-oriented, object-relational, active,
spatial, time-series, text, multi-media, heterogeneous, legacy, WWW,
etc.
Knowledge to be mined
– Characterization, discrimination, association, classification, clustering,
trend, deviation and outlier analysis, etc.
– Multiple/integrated functions and mining at multiple levels
Techniques utilized
– Database-oriented, data warehouse (OLAP), machine learning,
statistics, visualization, neural network, etc.
Applications adapted
– Retail, telecommunication, banking, fraud analysis, DNA mining, stock market
analysis, Web mining, Weblog analysis, etc.
 Data Mining Tasks

Prediction Tasks
– Use some variables to predict unknown or future values of other
variables
Description Tasks
– Find human-interpretable patterns that describe the data.

Common data mining tasks

– Classification [Predictive]
– Clustering [Descriptive]
– Association Rule Discovery [Descriptive]
– Sequential Pattern Discovery [Descriptive]
– Regression [Predictive]
– Deviation Detection [Predictive]
Data Mining Models and Tasks
CLASSIFICATION
 Classification: Definition

Given a collection of records (training set )

– Each record contains a set of attributes, one of the attributes is the
class.
Find a model for class attribute as a function of the
values of other attributes.
Goal: previously unseen records should be assigned a
class as accurately as possible.
– A test set is used to determine the accuracy of the model. Usually, the
given data set is divided into training and test sets, with training set
used to build the model and test set used to validate it.
 Classification

An Example
(from Pattern Classification by Duda & Hart & Stork –
Second Edition, 2001)
A fish-packing plant wants to automate the
process of sorting incoming fish according to
species

As a pilot project, it is decided to try to separate

sea bass from salmon using optical sensing
An Example (continued) Classification

Features (to distinguish):

Length
Lightness
Width
Position of mouth
»
 Classification
An Example (continued)

 Preprocessing: Images of different

fishes are isolated from one
another and from background;

 Feature extraction: The

information of a single fish is then
sent to a feature extractor, that
measure certain “features” or
“properties”;

 Classification: The values of these

features are passed to a classifier
that evaluates the evidence
presented, and build a model to
discriminate between the two
species
 An Example (continued) Classification

 Domain knowledge:
◦ A sea bass is generally longer than a salmon
 Related feature: (or attribute)
◦ Length
 Training the classifier:
◦ Some examples are provided to the classifier in this
form: <fish_length, fish_name>
◦ These examples are called training examples
◦ The classifier learns itself from the training examples,
how to distinguish Salmon from Bass based on the
fish_length
 An Example (continued) Classification

 Classification model (hypothesis):

◦ The classifier generates a model from the training
data to classify future examples (test examples)
◦ An example of the model is a rule like this:
◦ If Length >= l* then sea bass otherwise salmon
◦ Here the value of l* determined by the classifier
 Testing the model
◦ Once we get a model out of the classifier, we may use
the classifier to test future examples
◦ The test data is provided in the form <fish_length>
◦ The classifier outputs <fish_type> by checking
fish_length against the model
 Classification
An Example (continued)

Test/Unlabeled
So the overall Training Data
Data
classification process Preprocessing Preprocessing
goes like this  , and feature , and feature
extraction extraction

Feature vector Feature vector

Testing against
Training model/
Classification

Model Prediction/
Evaluation
 An Example (continued) Classification

Pre- 12, salmon If len > 12,

processing, Training
15, sea bass then sea bass
Feature 8, salmon else salmon
extraction 5, sea bass

Training data Model

Feature vector
Labeled data

Pre- sea bass (error!)

15, salmon
processing, Test/ salmon (correct)
10, salmon
Feature Classify sea bass
18, ?
extraction salmon
8, ?

Test data Feature vector Evaluation/Prediction

Unlabeled data
 Classification

An Example (continued)

Why error?
 Insufficient training data
 Too few features
 Too many/irrelevant features
 Overfitting / specialization
 Classification

An Example (continued)
 Classification

An Example (continued)
New Feature:
– Average lightness of the fish scales
 Classification

An Example (continued)
 Classification

An Example (continued)

Pre- If ltns > 6 or

12, 4, salmon
processing, Training len*5+ltns*2>100
15, 8, sea bass
Feature then sea bass else
8, 2, salmon
extraction salmon
5, 10, sea bass

Training data Model

Feature vector

Pre- salmon (correct)

15, 2, salmon
processing, Test/ salmon (correct)
10, 7, salmon
Feature Classify sea bass
18, 7, ?
extraction salmon
8, 5, ?

Test data Feature vector Evaluation/Prediction

 Classification

Terms

 Accuracy:
 % of test data correctly classified
 In our first example, accuracy was 3 out 4 = 75%
 In our second example, accuracy was 4 out 4 =
100%
 False positive:
 Negative class incorrectly classified as positive
 Usually, the larger class is the negative class
 Suppose
 salmon is negative class
 sea bass is positive class
 Classification

Terms

false positive

false negative
 Classification

Terms
 Cross validation (3 fold)

Training Training Testing

Training Testing Training

Testing Training Training

Fold 1 Fold 2 Fold 3

 Classification Example 2

Tid Refund Marital Taxable Refund Marital Taxable

Status Income Cheat Status Income Cheat

1 Yes Single 125K No No Single 75K ?

2 No Married 100K No Yes Married 50K ?
3 No Single 70K No No Married 150K ?
4 Yes Married 120K No Yes Divorced 90K ?
5 No Divorced 95K Yes No Single 40K ?
6 No Married 60K No No Married 80K ? Test
10

Set
7 Yes Divorced 220K No
8 No Single 85K Yes
9 No Married 75K No Learn
Training
10 No Single 90K Yes Model
10

Set Classifier
 Classification: Application 1

Direct Marketing
– Goal: Reduce cost of mailing by targeting a set of
consumers likely to buy a new cell-phone product.
– Approach:
• Use the data for a similar product introduced before.
• We know which customers decided to buy and which decided
otherwise. This {buy, don’t buy} decision forms the class attribute.
• Collect various demographic, lifestyle, and company-interaction
related information about all such customers.
– Type of business, where they stay, how much they earn, etc.
• Use this information as input attributes to learn a classifier model.
 Classification: Application 2

Fraud Detection
– Goal: Predict fraudulent cases in credit card transactions.
– Approach:
• Use credit card transactions and the information on its account-
holder as attributes.
– When does a customer buy, what does he buy, how often he pays on
time, etc
• Label past transactions as fraud or fair transactions. This forms the
class attribute.
• Learn a model for the class of the transactions.
• Use this model to detect fraud by observing credit card
transactions on an account.
 Classification: Application 3

Customer Attrition/Churn:
– Goal: To predict whether a customer is likely to be lost to a
competitor.
– Approach:
• Use detailed record of transactions with each of the past and
present customers, to find attributes.
– How often the customer calls, where he calls, what time-of-the day
he calls most, his financial status, marital status, etc.
• Label the customers as loyal or disloyal.
• Find a model for loyalty.
 Classification: Application 4

Sky Survey Cataloging

– Goal: To predict class (star or galaxy) of sky objects,
especially visually faint ones, based on the telescopic
survey images (from Palomar Observatory).
– 3000 images with 23,040 x 23,040 pixels per image.
– Approach:
• Segment the image.
• Measure image attributes (features) - 40 of them per object.
• Model the class based on these features.
• Success Story: Could find 16 new high red-shift quasars, some of
the farthest objects that are difficult to find!
 Classifying Galaxies

Early Class: Attributes:

• Stages of Formation • Image features,
• Characteristics of light
waves received, etc.
Intermediate

Late

Data Size:
• 72 million stars, 20 million galaxies
• Object Catalog: 9 GB
• Image Database: 150 GB
CLUSTERING
 Clustering Definition

Given a set of data points, each having a set of

attributes, and a similarity measure among them, find
clusters such that
– Data points in one cluster are more similar to one another.
– Data points in separate clusters are less similar to one
another.
Similarity Measures:
– Euclidean Distance if attributes are continuous.
– Other Problem-specific Measures.
 Illustrating Clustering

Euclidean Distance Based Clustering in 3-D space.

Intracluster distances Intercluster distances

are minimized are maximized
 Clustering: Application 1

Market Segmentation:
– Goal: subdivide a market into distinct subsets of customers
where any subset may conceivably be selected as a market
target to be reached with a distinct marketing mix.
– Approach:
• Collect different attributes of customers based on their
geographical and lifestyle related information.
• Find clusters of similar customers.
• Measure the clustering quality by observing buying patterns of
customers in same cluster vs. those from different clusters.
 Clustering: Application 2

Document Clustering:
– Goal: To find groups of documents that are similar to each
other based on the important terms appearing in them.
– Approach: To identify frequently occurring terms in each
document. Form a similarity measure based on the
frequencies of different terms. Use it to cluster.
– Gain: Information Retrieval can utilize the clusters to
relate a new document or search term to clustered
documents.
ASSOCIATION RULE MINING
 Association Rule Discovery: Definition

Given a set of records each of which contain some number of

items from a given collection;
– Produce dependency rules which will predict occurrence of an item
based on occurrences of other items.

TID Items
1 Bread, Coke, Milk
Rules Discovered:
2 Beer, Bread {Milk} --> {Coke}
3 Beer, Coke, Diaper, Milk {Diaper, Milk} --> {Beer}
4 Beer, Bread, Diaper, Milk
5 Coke, Diaper, Milk
 Association Rule Discovery: Application 1

Marketing and Sales Promotion:

– Let the rule discovered be
{Bagels, … } --> {Potato Chips}
– Potato Chips as consequent => Can be used to determine
what should be done to boost its sales.
– Bagels in the antecedent => Can be used to see which
products would be affected if the store discontinues
selling bagels.
– Bagels in antecedent and Potato chips in consequent =>
Can be used to see what products should be sold with
Bagels to promote sale of Potato chips!
 Association Rule Discovery: Application 2

Supermarket shelf management.

– Goal: To identify items that are bought together by
sufficiently many customers.
– Approach: Process the point-of-sale data collected with
barcode scanners to find dependencies among items.
– A classic rule --
• If a customer buys diaper and milk, then he is very likely to buy
beer:
SOME CLASSIFICATION
TECHNIQUES
 Bayes Theorem

Posterior Probability: P(h1|xi)

Prior Probability: P(h1)
Bayes Theorem:

Assign probabilities of hypotheses given a data value.

 Bayes Theorem Example
Credit authorizations (hypotheses): h1=authorize
purchase, h2 = authorize after further identification,
h3=do not authorize, h4= do not authorize but
contact police
Assign twelve data values for all combinations of
credit and income:
1 2 3 4
Excellent x1 x2 x3 x4
Good x5 x6 x7 x8
Bad x9 x10 x11 x12

From training data: P(h1) = 60%; P(h2)=20%;

P(h3)=10%; P(h4)=10%.
 Bayes Example(cont’d)
Training Data:
ID Income Credit Class xi
1 4 Excellent h1 x4
2 3 Good h1 x7
3 2 Excellent h1 x2
4 3 Good h1 x7
5 4 Good h1 x8
6 2 Excellent h1 x2
7 3 Bad h2 x11
8 2 Bad h2 x10
9 3 Bad h3 x11
10 1 Bad h4 x9
 Bayes Example(cont’d)

Calculate P(xi|hj) and P(xi)

Ex: P(x7|h1)=2/6; P(x4|h1)=1/6; P(x2|h1)=2/6;
P(x8|h1)=1/6; P(xi|h1)=0 for all other xi.
Predict the class for x4:
– Calculate P(hj|x4) for all hj.
– Place x4 in class with largest value.
– Ex:
• P(h1|x4)=(P(x4|h1)(P(h1))/P(x4)
=(1/6)(0.6)/0.1=1.
• x4 in class h1.
 Hypothesis Testing

Find model to explain behavior by creating and

then testing a hypothesis about the data.
Exact opposite of usual DM approach.
H0 – Null hypothesis; Hypothesis to be tested.
H1 – Alternative hypothesis
 Chi Squared Statistic

O – observed value
E – Expected value based on hypothesis.

Ex:
– O={50,93,67,78,87}
– E=75
– c2=15.55 and therefore significant
 Regression

Predict future values based on past values

Linear Regression assumes linear relationship
exists.
y = c0 + c1 x1 + … + cn xn
Find values to best fit the data
Linear Regression
 Correlation

Examine the degree to which the values for two

variables behave similarly.
Correlation coefficient r:
• 1 = perfect correlation
• -1 = perfect but opposite correlation
• 0 = no correlation
 Similarity Measures

Determine similarity between two objects.

Similarity characteristics:

Alternatively, distance measure measure how unlike or

dissimilar objects are.
Similarity Measures
 Distance Measures

Measure dissimilarity between objects

Twenty Questions Game
 Decision Trees

Decision Tree (DT):

– Tree where the root and each internal node is
labeled with a question.
– The arcs represent each possible answer to the
associated question.
– Each leaf node represents a prediction of a
solution to the problem.
Popular technique for classification; Leaf node
indicates class to which the corresponding tuple
belongs.
Decision Tree Example
 Decision Trees

A Decision Tree Model is a computational model

consisting of three parts:
– Decision Tree
– Algorithm to create the tree
– Algorithm that applies the tree to data
Creation of the tree is the most difficult part.
Processing is basically a search similar to that in a
binary search tree (although DT may not be binary).
Decision Tree Algorithm
 DT Advantages/Disadvantages

Advantages:
– Easy to understand.
– Easy to generate rules
Disadvantages:
– May suffer from overfitting.
– Classifies by rectangular partitioning.
– Does not easily handle nonnumeric data.
– Can be quite large – pruning is necessary.
 Neural Networks

Based on observed functioning of human brain.

(Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Our view of neural networks is very simplistic.
We view a neural network (NN) from a
graphical viewpoint.
Alternatively, a NN may be viewed from the
perspective of matrices.
Used in pattern recognition, speech
recognition, computer vision, and classification.
 Neural Networks
Neural Network (NN) is a directed graph F=<V,A>
with vertices V={1,2,…,n} and arcs
A={<i,j>|1<=i,j<=n}, with the following restrictions:
– V is partitioned into a set of input nodes, VI,
hidden nodes, VH, and output nodes, VO.
– The vertices are also partitioned into layers
– Any arc <i,j> must have node i in layer h-1 and
node j in layer h.
– Arc <i,j> is labeled with a numeric value wij.
– Node i is labeled with a function fi.
Neural Network Example
NN Node
 NN Activation Functions

Functions associated with nodes in graph.

Output may be in range [-1,1] or [0,1]
NN Activation Functions
 NN Learning

Propagate input values through graph.

Compare output to desired output.
Adjust weights in graph accordingly.
 Neural Networks

A Neural Network Model is a computational model

consisting of three parts:
– Neural Network graph
– Learning algorithm that indicates how learning
takes place.
– Recall techniques that determine hew information
is obtained from the network.
We will look at propagation as the recall technique.
 NN Advantages

Learning
Can continue learning even after training set has
been applied.
Easy parallelization
Solves many problems
 NN Disadvantages

Difficult to understand
May suffer from overfitting
Structure of graph must be determined a priori.
Input values must be numeric.
Verification difficult.