Smart Money Concept
Smart Money Concept
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A. PRICE DELIVERY
B. INSTITUTIONAL ORDER FLOW
PRICE DELIVERY
1. Consolidation (price delivery starts with a consolidation)
2. Expansion
3. Retracement/Reversal
CONSOLIDATION : When price moves inside a clear trading range and shows no willingness to
move significantly higher/lower. It indicates the Market Makers (MM) are allowing orders to build
on both sides of the market. Expect a new expansion.
We look for an impulse swing in price away from the equilibrium (halfway point of the
consolidation range) price level.
EXPANSION: When price moves quickly (higher/lower) from equilibrium. Whenever price leaves
a level quickly, indicates a willingness on the part of MM to reveal their intended repricing model.
We look for the Order Block (OB) the MM leaves at or near equilibrium.
RETRACEMENT : When price moves back inside the recently created Price Range. This
indicates a willingness on the part of MM to reprice to the levels which are not efficiently traded
for fair value*.
We look for Liquidity Voids (LV) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG).
REVERSAL: When price moves in the opposite direction to that of the current direction. It
indicates that MM has run a level of Stops and a significant move should unfold in the new
direction.
We look for Liquidity Pools (LP) just above an old price high and just below an old price
low.
NOTE: The rules are absolute: look at equilibrium during a consolidation, at OB during
expansion , at LV/FVG during retracement and at LP during reversal.
FAIR VALUATION
Equilibrium itself is a Fair value.
An upclose candle prior to a downswing is a Bearish OB : A Fair value at which to be sold.
A downclose candle prior to an upswing is a Bullish OB: A Fair value at which to be bought.
LIQUIDITY: It refers to the degree to which a market asset can be quickly bought/sold in the
market without affecting the asset’s price.
LIQUIDITY RUNS: Grabbing the liquidity ( Buy stops or Sell stops) from old (high/low) swings is
called liquidity run.
Low resistance liquidity run is desirable to enter a trade. ( As shown below)
High resistance liquidity run is not preferred to trade. ( as shown below)
LOSS MITIGATION : Always mitigate the loss by reducing the risk and not by increasing it.
Suppose if you are met with a losing trade, if you reenter the trading reduce the position size by
50% ( and hence the risk) . As soon as the loss is mitigated, cut the trade and go flat for the day.
SETUP
A. Patience: Process oriented thinking - Not reactionary or impulsive thinking or rushing
ahead to trade signals prematurely.
B. Define the trade environment: Top down analysis - Higher Time Frame to Lower Time
Frame analysis of the market.
C. Define the trading parameters: Market sentiment. Daily range , Time of day.
D. Executable criteria: If the price does this then I shall do this.
E. Understand why the price should do what you are thinking of it in terms of Institutional
Order Flow and Liquidity seeking mechanism.
F. Collect the experience for future reference.
Always look at the HTF Institutional Order Flow to check if a flag is fake or not. ( Makes a basis
for Stop Loss Hunt entry technique (SLH)) .
False breakout: Generally manifests in Bearish market conditions. MM typically sends prices
above the consolidation range to neutralize buy stops.
Trading Range: Find the most recent down candle and prior to this down candle find any
upclose candle having a low higher than the open of the downclose candle. This is the present
trading range. Repeat the process on the monthly, weekly and daily chart.
Generally most of the institutional volume lies inside the body of the candles and retailers are
trapped inside of the wicks !
Institutional sponsorship in short term setups can be traced in the form of price displacement
(large movement of the price in single candlestick) , imbalances (LV/FVG) and liquidity runs.
Anticipate dynamic price movement whenever price moves into previous levels of institutional
Order Flow.
The single most influential driving force behind market moves is Interest Rates.
LIQUIDITY CONCEPTS AND PRICE DELIVERY
EXTERNAL RANGE LIQUIDITY: Buy/Sell side liquidity above/below range high/low. Liquidity
runs on liquidity pools.
How to play?
a) Wait for a quick reaction from internal liquidity.
b) Wait for an OB to form.
c) Price returns to the OB.
d) Aim for external range liquidity.
Buy inside internal range liquidity OB and aim for external range liquidity.
ORDER BLOCKS
1. BULLISH OB:
a. The lowest downclose candle that has the most range between open to close and
is near to a support level (HTF) .
b. Validation of the OB: When the high of the lowest downclose candle is traded
through by a later formed candle.
c. Entry technique: When price trades higher away from the Bullish OB and then
return to the OB high, bullish scenerio. Look for a rally two to three times the size
of the OB to buy later into the OB.
d. Risk: The low of the Bullish OB is the safe SL. Just below the 50% of the OB is
safe to raise the SL after the price runs away from the OB.
BEARISH OB : The highest upclose candle that has the most range between open to close and
is near to a resistance level (HTF).
2. MITIGATION BLOCK (MB) :
BEARISH SCENARIO : Buyers that previously bought the low later see the low being violated;
will look to mitigate their losses as soon as the price returns the same level hence forming a
mitigation block - bearish setup.
NOTE: Previous high not being violated. ( remember it to differentiate with the breaker block
discussed later).
3. BREAKER BLOCKS (BB) :
Differs from the mitigation block only in the sense that in this case the old high is violated first (
bearish breaker ) and then price moves lower to run sell stops to again reach the same price
level before going further lower.
4. REJECTION BLOCK (RB)
BEARISH REJECTION BLOCK : When a price high has formed with long wicks on the highs of
the candlestick and price reaches up above the body of the candle to run buy side liquidity out
before price declines.
NOTE:
1. COLOR OF THE CANDLE DOES NOT MATTER HERE.
2. BODIES OF THE CANDLE MATTER HERE I.E. WICKS MAY OR MAY NOT SWEEP
THE RB, IT IS THE BODY THAT IS BEING SWEPT. SO LIQUIDITY SWEEP IS NOT
NECESSARY FOR RB . NEED NOT WAIT FOR LIQUIDITY SWEEP BELOW WICKS.
5. RECLAIMED ORDER BLOCK (ROB) ( MARKET MAKER MODEL)
MARKET MAKER BUY MODEL : Bullish Reclaimed OB is a downclose candle that was
previously used to buy price and a short term bounce confirms minor displacement. On the buy
side of the curve these old OBs will be reclaimed for entering long.
MARKET MAKER SELL MODEL: Bearish reclaimed OB is an upclose candle that was
previously used to short prices and a short term decline confirms minor displacement. On the
sell side of the curve these old OBs will be reclaimed for entering short.
6. PROPULSION BLOCK (PB)
BULLISH PB: A candlestick that has previously traded down into a downclose candle or bullish
OB and takes over the role of price support for higher price movement. Price responds very
quickly from a propulsion candle. The propulsion candle is very sensitive and the mean
threshold is strictly protected.
7. VACUUM BLOCK
It is a gap created in price action as a result of a volatility event . The gap forms by a vacuum of
liquidity directly related to an event.
A vacuum block may or may not fill completely. Any previous OB may push the price away even
without filling the gap.
Once filled , there is no reason for the price to return to the gap. If it does so, exit the position.
8. LIQUIDITY POOL
FVG is a range in price delivery where one side of the market liquidity is offered and typically
confirmed with a liquidity void on Lower Time Frame (LTF) in the same range. Price can actually
Gap to create a literal vacuum of trading thus posting an actual price gap. Useful in the Ranged
market.
MOMENTUM INDICATOR DIVERGENCE
TYPE 1: When price forms a higher high and the momentum indicator makes a lower high. Seen
as a bearish divergence to enter short. A TRAP!
TYPE 2: When price forms a higher low and the momentum indicator makes a lower low. It's a
bullish divergence. Buy signal confirmation. Not recommended to formulate a trade but to
confirm an already formulated and well analyzed trade to enter long.
Immediate response from key level is necessary to observe during candle formation.
BREAKER SWING : The same as the breaker block formation. The price trades to a key level
OR just short of it but fails to immediately react- indicating deeper before a reversal. This leads
to the formation of a breaker block which can be used to enter the trade later.
FAILURE SWING: The price trades through a key level initially but fails to immediately continue.
After rejecting the new price level the price retraces only to attempt to stage another drive to
retest or overtake the new price level.
NOTE : THERE IS NO AMBIGUITY / RANDOMNESS IN PRICE MOVEMENT. EVERY PRICE
MOVEMENT IS ALGORITHMIC AND CALCULATED , WITH A SOLE PURPOSE OF
GENERATING AND HUNTING LIQUIDITY. IT ALWAYS LEAVES TRACES , WE HAVE TO
LOOK FOR THEM AND FOLLOW THE FOOTPRINTS WITHOUT FEET.
HTF PD ARRAYS
Steps
1. Look for a mitigation block to enter , if not found one
2. Look for breaker, if not
3. Look for LV/FVG, if not formed
4. Look for OB, if not present
5. RB or Old High/Low would certainly be there!
UPON REACHING,
BEARISH PA: Open short position / Close long position.
BULLISH DA: Open long position / Close short position.
Trading predictable price movements in the market with a high degree of consistency. Following
are the elements to look before entering a trade:
a. Obvious trends in HTF and Institutional order flows are clear.
b. Above or below the price, PDA are obvious and easy to identify.
c. The cleanest price action is the most favorable to trade in.
d. Every trade is passed through a rule based filtering process. The rules are standardized
and static, not changing each trading setup. When trade setups fail the filtering process
that trade is passed on - no exceptions. When the trade passes the filtering process the
trade is executed on.
e. Risk to reward ratio should preferably be 5:1 , this makes it easier to digest losses.
f. The PDA that have been traded to or executed on most recently indicate the opposite
PDA spectrum will be reached for.
g. In case of failure of PDA, look at HTF PDA.
h. If the market is poised to trade higher on HTF, the market rallies higher, then retraces
and then expands up to higher highs. The same with the bearish scenario with decline
below old lows.
BULLISH MARKET
A. Discount arrays have shown to induce buying as evidenced by price moving higher. Look
for the same PDA on LTF. Buy the LTF nested arrays in HTF arrays.
B. In all time frames - downclose candles provide new support to price and little to no
weakness seen.
C. Avoid buying in the PDA if the price has just posted a higher high and rejected (may form
a bearish breaker, hence the PDA may break )
D. If HTF is bullish but the LTF seems to be bearish , expect the price to move into an HTF
discount array since it is considered only a retracement in HTF. Only buy LTF nested in
HTF PDA.
E. HTF PDAs are traded multiple times unlike LTF PDAs.
F. Mark the highs and opens of the downclose candles as POI.
BEARISH MARKET
A. Premium array has shown to induce selling as evident by the price moving lower.
B. In all timeframes, upclose candles provide new resistance to the price and little to no
strength seen.
C. Avoid selling the PDA if the price has just posted a lower low and is rejected ( may form a
bullish breaker, hence the PDA may break).
D. If HTF is bearish but LTF is bullish, it means a correction on HTF. Only sell LTF nested in
HTF PDA.
E. HTF PDAs are traded multiple times unlike LTF PDAs.
F. Mark the lows and opens of the upclose candles as POI.
DAYTRADING
TRADE SETUP
a. Not all days are ideal for daytrading.
b. Generally 2 setups per trading day on average. (one in the opening session and another
in the afternoon).
c. Wait for volatility to signal large ranges.
d. Frame a Low resistance liquidity run with opposing PDA.
e. Daily range is the goal for day traders.
f. Directional bias frames a large portion of setups.
g. Ideal scenario is to day trade in the direction of the weekly timeframe.
h. More the HTF ideas are found to support, the better the day trade.
i. It is important ‘not’ to take many trades in a single day.
j. HTF institutional Order Flow frames a day trade.
k. Avoid trade during any event that creates a whipsaw.
l. Avoid trade on a day which is heading to a long weekend.
m. Need not trade daily.
n. Favorable to observe if the daily chart is clearly respecting HTF PDA, the market has
recently responded off an HTF PDA and not met an opposing PDA.
o. Wisdom in knowing when to stay out of the market.
TRADE MANAGEMENT
Buy trades:
a. Plan after daily chart reacted on discount PDA and price has a clear unobstructed path to
an opposing premium array.
b. Timeframe to execute: 5 min.
c. Look for FVG below Short term low.
d. Look for Bullish OB below short term low either previous day or today.
e. If the condition is very bullish - any discount array will do.
f. Filling an LV under short term low.
g. First retracement into 5 min OB.
h. If short term low is taken out twice with no movement upside - buy SLH entry.
i. Do not rush moving initial SL.
j. Take profit on reaching the previous day high.
Sell Trades:
a. Plan after the daily chart reacted on premium PDA and the price has a clear
unobstructed path to an opposing discount PDA.
b. Time frame to execute - 5 min.
c. Look for FVG above Short Term High (STH).
d. Look for bearish OB above STH, either the previous day or today.
e. If very bearish - any premium array will do.
f. Filling a LV above STH.
g. First retracement into 5 min OB.
h. If STH is taken out twice with no downside - sell SLH entry.
i. Take profit on reaching the previous day low.
SCALPING
Market Sentiment: If there is a short term shift in sentiment, the less informed traders will chase
the prices on the impulse or initial swing intraday, however we wait to enter an opposing market
direction in accordance with HTF charts. We focus on strict conditions like HTF/daily direction
based on institutional order flow and combine PDA for next level objectives. This in turn shall
provide high probability setups. The 4 Hour chart is the last line of defense in terms of
determining the bias. Any move against the 4 hour direction in LTF is a trap for retail. We
however, follow the trend setup by 4 hour or preferably daily charts for day trades.
Buy Conditions:
1. IOF suggests a daily discount array in play.
2. There is sufficient range between current market price (CMP) and opposing premium
array on daily.
3. During the opening bell the price declines under the opening price. Ideally the decline will
be to a logical discount array on a 5 min chart.
4. Typically the price will not spend much time on the discount array on the 5 min chart.
5. Expect the price to sharply trade higher away from the 5 min discount array.
6. Longer the price stays or hovers near the 5 min discount array, the less the probability of
price going higher. Immediate response is necessary.
7. Short term (1 min chart ) sentiment will be most bearish at the time we enter long trades.
Sell Conditions:
1. IOF suggests a daily premium array in play.
2. There is sufficient range between CMP and opposing discount arrays on a daily chart.
3. During the opening bell the price rallies above the opening price. Ideally the rally will be
to a logical premium array on a 5 min chart.
4. Typically the price will not spend much time on the premium array on the 5 min chart.
5. Expect the price to sharply trade lower away from the 5 min premium array.
6. Longer the price stays or hovers near the 5 min premium array, the less the probability of
price going lower. Immediate response is necessary.
7. Short term (1 min chart ) sentiment will be most bullish at the time we enter short trades.
Previous Day Low : During expansion swings there are smaller retracements that typically create
opportunities where the previous day low is raided then price rallies higher. We look for a
confluence of HTF PDA to support the idea of buying under PDL. HTF sentiment support is
necessary.
Previous Day High : In opposing expansion swings there are retracements that create
opportunities where the previous day high is raided then the prices declines. HTF sentiment
support is necessary.
ALGORITHMIC PRICING SYSTEMS
BUY SETUPS
The price delivery mechanism is highly algorithmic. There is no ambiguity in price movements.
The sole purpose of the price delivery algorithm is to engineer a liquidity pool and hunt it
efficiently to have an edge over other players. The MAPS perform the following price engine
model for buy programs:
1.Accumulate sell side liquidity by repricing under an old low :- Sell stops will be triggered
inducing counterparty sellers to pair long entries with. Seek a higher short term premium
array to offset (exit) positions.
2.Reaccumulate fair value in retracements lower at discount arrays :- Weak long holders
will be squeezed during the retracement lower. Seek to expand higher a short term
premium array to offset positions.
Let's have a look in detail.
OFFSET ACCUMULATION:
a. The price delivery algorithm reprice the market below an old low to promote sell stops
that would be residing there for current long holders. This in essence engineers sellers at
deep discount prices.
b. There may also be sell stops for breakout systems below old low that wish to sell on
weakness. This model is offset accumulation.
c. Its primary purpose is to offset current long holders and/or induce more sellers at
discount pricing.
d. The model is seen frequently in bullish market conditions and while HTF institutional
Order Flow is suggesting higher prices.
e. Typically offset accumulation models unfold quickly and one must learn to anticipate
them at key lows intraday.
REACCUMULATION:
a. The price delivery algorithm reprice the market lower to a fair value price array to
provide smart money discount pricing for long entries.
b. The market will be bullish from institutional perspective and many times unfolds
after a recent sell stop raid.
c. The retracement lower in price will place pain on current long holders and tends
to induce selling thus providing sell side liquidity to pair smart money long entries
with. The model is reaccumulation.
d. Its primary purpose is to reaccumulate new long entries or induce more sellers at
discount pricing.
e. The model is seen frequently in bullish market conditions and while HTF
institutional OF is suggesting higher prices.
f. Typically reaccumulation unfolds quickly and one must learn to anticipate them at
key discount arrays intraday.
SELL SETUPS
The MAPS will perform one of the two price engine models:
1. Accumulate buy side liquidity by repricing above an old high. Buy
stops will be triggered inducing counterparty buyers to pair short
entries. Price will seek a lower short term discount array to offset
positions.
2. Reaccumulate fair value in retracements higher at premium arrays.
Weak short holders will be squeezed in the retracement higher. Price
will seek to expand lower to a short term discount array to offset
positions.
OFFSET DISTRIBUTION:
a. Price delivery algorithm will reprice the market above an old high to promote buy stops
that would be residing there for current short holders.
b. This engineers buyers at premium prices. There may be buy stops for breakout systems
above old high that wish to buy on strength. The model is called offset distribution.
c. Its primary purpose is to offset current short holders and/or induce more buyers at
premium pricing.
d. The model is seen frequently in bearish market conditions and while HTF IOF is
suggesting lower prices.
e. Typically this model unfolds quickly and one must learn to anticipate them at key highs
intraday.
REDISTRIBUTION:
a. Price Delivery Algorithm will reprice the market higher to a fair value price array to
provide smart money premium pricing for short entries.
b. The market will be bearish from an institutional perspective and many times unfolds after
a recent Bull stop raid.
c. The retracement higher in price will place pain on current short holders and tends to
induce buying, thus providing buy side liquidity to pair smart money short entries with.
This model is called redistribution.
d. Its primary purpose is to redistribute new short entries and/or induce more buyers at
premium pricing.
e. The model is seen frequently in bearish market conditions and while HTF IOF is
suggesting lower prices.
f. Typically redistribution unfolds quickly and one must learn to anticipate them at key
premium arrays intraday.
SCALPING MODEL
CONSOLIDATION DAYS:
Consolidation days are formed:
1. After a HTF PDA is met.
2. At equilibrium of HTF price swing ~ mid point pause.
3. Ahead of long holidays.
Focus on trading when HTF PDAs are met. Small ranges precede large ranges on a daily chart.
Remember : consolidation brings expansion.
TRENDING DAYS:
Trending days are formed :
1. After a series of small range days.
2. Directionally driven by daily PDA.
3. Liquidity seeking movement PDA and OF.
AFTERNOON SESSION:
1. 12:00 - 3:00 PM.
2. Can be a continuation or reversal of the morning session.
3. Moves are usually faster and larger than morning sessions.
4. Last hour generally creates the opposite end of the daily candle.
5. If Morning ~ low of the day , then afternoon~ high of the day and vice versa.
DAILY BIAS
CASE 1: When the current market price (CMP) is in between two HTF PDAs , where price has
space to move depending upon Institutional Order Flow (IOF).
AM RALLY PM REVERSAL : IOF is bullish but the CMP is under an HTF premium array ( just
about to reach HTF PDA), this causes the AM rally PM reversal scenario.
a. CMP returns to discount PDA then rallies in the AM.
b. Consolidates with shallow retracements.
c. CMP runs the consolidation highs (stops) - then reverses into close OR runs the intraday
high and reverses into close in the PM. This occurs if the AM PDA is not an HTF discount
array.
d. *The PM trend may resume higher if the AM discount array is an HTF discount array.
AM DECLINE PM RALLY : IOF is bearish but the CMP is about to reach the HTF discount
array.
a. CMP returns to a premium array and declines in the AM.
b. Consolidates with shallow retracements.
c. CMP runs the consolidation lows / intraday low and then rallies into close in the PM. This
occurs when the AM premium array is not an HTF premium array.
d. *The PM trend may resume lower if the AM premium array is an HTF premium array.
NOTE: If the AM session has already reached HTF PDA , then the PM session will only run
consolidation stops. If the AM session has not reached any HTF PDA, then the PM session will
be expected to run the intraday stops.
CASE 3: Consolidation.
Case 3 patterns are similar to case 2 patterns but are not low resistance liquidity runs. So the
curves are not smooth like case 2.
ENTRY PATTERNS
NOTE: Only these two patterns need to be traded consistently for buying opportunities. Reverse
the patterns for sell side trades. However the following two models come handy in execution.
How to enter ?
a. Daily chart will highlight the most probable draw on liquidity (SLH). This is where the
price is most likely to trade to.
b. Using this directional bias, we can anticipate the daily ranges to expand in that direction.
c. For example, if the draw (SLH) is below the CMP, the daily ranges will open near the high
and close near the low and vice versa.
OPPORTUNITY:
1. Identify the previous day low (PDL) or intraweek low when the bias is bearish.
2. Identify the previous day high (PDH) or intraweek high when the bias is bullish.
3. Expect a daily range expansion in the direction of the bias.
TRADE PLAN:
1. When the market is primed, we want to look for a convergence of manipulation in price
opposite to our trade bias. We will short premium FVG and buy discount FVG.
EXECUTION:
1. When bullish, note HTF discount FVG. Anticipate a 5 min institutional order flow entry
drill (IOFED) { immediate rejection of a PDA by the CMP} , trade entry to form inside of a
retracement lower OR a sell stop raid.
2. When bearish, note HTF premium FVG. Anticipate a 5 min IOFED trade entry to form
inside of a retracement higher OR a buy stop raid.
MANAGEMENT:
1. When we are entering a chart we will always place a limit order.
2. If multiple orders are placed, use the same entry price for all.
3. Place limit order to take target.
4. Never enter a trade without predetermined Stop Loss and Target.
5. If stopped out , DO NOT RE-ENTER. Close the day .
6. Do not rush trailing SL.
a. When the chart (at any time frame) presents us with a bullish condition, we have to
understand when the market is poised to move higher on a draw on liquidity (SLH).
b. In general we get two opportunities to enter.
c. The initial consolidation may not be easy to spot.
d. After the initial impulse swing low forms, it will generally be easier to locate the next draw
on liquidity.
e. In general we get 2 opportunities to enter.
f. Generally stage 2 price movement is explosive as compared to 1 which means we may
or may not get both 1st and 2nd stages of reaccumulation, rather a single explosive
move until the liquidity near the initial consolidation gets absorbed.
g. Trust an FVG overlapping with an old area of distribution/accumulation to enter a buy
limit order.
h. If an IOFED is formed near the expected target (SLH) , it may be possible that the point
is not the terminus and price will likely be going beyond that level.