Tribhuvan University

Institute of Science and Technology

Course Title: Mathematical Modeling Full Marks: 50

Course No: Math 407 Pass Marks: 17.5
Level: B. Sc Year: IV
Nature of course: Theory Period per Week 4 Hrs

Unit 1: Modeling Change: 15 Lectures

Introduction, Mathematical models, Modeling change with difference equations,
Approximating change with difference equations, Solution to dynamical systems,
Systems of difference equations.

Unit 2: The Modeling Process, Proportionality and Geometric Similarity:

15 Lectures
Mathematical models, modeling using proportionality, modeling using geometric
Similarity, Automobile gasoline mileage, Body weight and height, Strength and agility.

Unit 3: Model Fitting: 15 Lectures

Fitting model to data graphically, Analytical methods of data fitting, Applying the
least squares criterion, Choosing a best model.

Unit 4: Optimization of Discrete Models: 15 Lectures

Introduction, An overview of optimization modeling, Linear programming, Geometric,
Algebraic, Simplex method.

Unit 5: 15 Lectures
Population growth, Prescribing drug dosage, Braking distance revisited. Graphical
Solutions of autonomous Differential equations.

Introduction
What is Modeling? Modeling of devices and phenomena is essential to both engineering
and science.
So engineers and scientists have very practical reasons for doing mathematical modeling.

Real World: At the beginning, one has to identify a real world (or external world)
Conceptual World: a conceptual world (or mathematical world)

Introduction

• Real World:
Various phenomena and behaviors, whether natural in origin or produced by artifacts, are observed.

• Conceptual World:
The world of mind, which deals with the observation, modeling and prediction of
the phenomena and behaviors which are happening in the real world.
 Principles of Mathematical Modeling

1. Problem Identification
2. Making Assumptions; Variables Selection and their interrelationship
3. Solving and interpretation of the model
4. Verification of the model
5. Implementation of the model
6. Maintaining the model.
4, 5 and 6 steps are important for the stability of the solution of the modeled problem.

Where and when Mathematics can be used?

• There is no discipline free from mathematics. So we claim that mathematics is
everywhere.

• Mathematics used to solve physical problems is called an applied mathematics.

• A physical problem means the problem in our surroundings.
A stone thrown into the air,
birds flying in the sky and fishes swimming in the water
can be described by mathematics.

Where is Mathematics?
• Inside our room, we find cuboids beams, rectangular windows.
• The corners of the room can be considered as the origin and the surfaces are perpendicular to
each other at the origin. One of the corners can be considered as the x- axis and other as the y-
axis.
• We see the cracks in the field when there is no rain. The cracks in the ground are of different
shapes which can be rectangular, cuboids, cubic, hexagonal or other irregular shapes.
Also the trees on the sides of the road.

Example
• Using trigonometry, the height of the tree can be approximated.
This idea is common in forest officers.
• The volume and surface area of a human can be estimated crudely but quickly using the
formula for the cylinder.
For example;
If r = 1/2ft. and h = 5ft. then, s = 2𝜋rh and v = 𝜋r2h give s ≈ 16ft2 and v ≈4ft3

Main Steps for Modeling

The method of describing the problems is called modeling. For the modeling we need to
follow the following steps;

1. Problem and set up a model

2. Interpretation of the problem in real terms
3. Stability validity of the solution.

Examples of Modeling
Example 1: The product of the age of a father and a son is 800. Find their ages if the son
is 20 years younger than the father.
Solution: Setting a model: Let x is the age of the son then x(x + 20) = 800
Solving we get
x = 20 and = -40: Analysis of the problem.
x ≠ -40,
∴ x = 20: Interpretation and validations of the problem
Use of Mathematics in Biology

• External Bio-fluid Dynamics: People invented big airplanes seeing the birds flying in the
sky.
Example: Eagles and other big birds
Small planes like helicopters were invented: seeing the small birds like humming
birds.
Seeing the fish in the water: ships and marines were invented.

• Internal Bio-fluid Dynamics: Flow of blood, urine, cerebro-spinal and transport

of mass and heat within an animal and flow of air in lungs.

Detailed Course:
Unit 1 Modeling Change
In modeling our world, we are often interested in predicting the value of a variable at
sometime in the future. Examples are:
• population after some years
• real state value after some years
• the number of people with a communication disease after some time.
•
That is, mathematical model can help us to understand a behavior better or aid us in planning
for the future. See the previous figure.
Simplification:
Models can only approximate real world behavior. One very powerful simplifying realationship
is proportionality:
Definition: Two variables y and x are proportional (to each other) if one is always a constant
multiple of the other- that is, if
y = kx
for some non zero constant k. We write y 𝛼 x

1.1 Modeling Change with Difference Equation

A powerful paradigm to use in modeling change is

future value = present value + change
By collecting the data over a period of time and plotting those data, we may capture the
trend of the change in the behavior. If the behavior is talking place over discrete path periods then we are
concerned with difference equation. If the behavior is taking place continuously with respect to time
then we are concerned with the differential equation.
Definition: For a sequence of numbers A = {a0,a1, a2,…..} the first differences are
∆a0 = a1 - a0
∆a1 = a2 -a1
∆a2 = a3 - a2
...
∆an = an+1 - an

n a positive integer. Example: A Saving Certificate Consider the value of a savings certificate initially
worth Rs 1000 that accumulates interest paid each month at 1 percent per month. Then
A = {1000, 1010, 1020.10, 1030.30, ……}
The first differences are
∆a0 = a1- a0 = 1010 - 1000 = 10
∆a1 = a2 - a1 = 1020.20 - 1010 = 10.10
∆a2 = a3 - a2 = 1030.30 - 1020.10 = 10.20

Example: A Saving Certificate (continuous)

Note that the first differences represent the damage in the sequence during one time period, or the interest.
The first difference is useful for modeling change talking place in discrete intervals. Here,
the change in the value of the certificate from one month to the next month is merely the interest paid
during that month. If n is the number of months and an the value of the certificate after after n months,
then the change or interest growth in each month is represented by the nth difference
∆an = an+1 - an = 0.01an
which can be rewritten as
an+1 = an + 0.01an
Example: A Saving Certificate (continuous)
As we know that the initial deposit is Rs1000 we have the dynamical system model
an+1 = 1.01an, n = 0, 1, 2..
a0 = 1000

APPROXIMATING CHANGE WITH DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS

If Rs 50 is drawn from the account each month, the change during a period would be the interest earned
during that period minus the monthly withdrawal. That is
∆an = an+1 - an = 0.01an - 50
Example: Mortagaging a Home , See the book.
Definitions
A sequence is a function whose domain is the set of all nonnegative integers and whose range is a subset
of the real numbers.
A dynamical system is a relationship among terms in a sequence.
A numerical solution is a table of values satisfying the dynamical systems.
1.2 Approximating Change with Difference Equations

In most of the examples, describing the change mathematically is not precise. For such conditions, we
must plot the change, observe a pattern, and then approximate the change in mathematical terms. Here we
approximate some observed change to complete the expression
change = ∆an = some function of f
Example: Growth of a Yeast Culture:
Data collected in a yeast culture experiment is given in the table. The graph represents the assumption that
the change in population is proportional to the current size of the population. That is,
∆pn = (pn+1 - pn) = kpn
where pn represents the size of the population biomass after n hours, and k is a positive constant. The
value of k depends on the time measurement.
Example 1: Growth of a Yeast Culture:

Model Refinement: Modeling Births, Deaths, and Resources:

If both births and deaths during a period are proportional to the population, then the change in population
should be proportional to the population, as in the Example 1. However, certain resources (e.g., food) can
support only a maximum population level rather than one that increases indefinitely. As these maximum
levels are approached, growth should slow. These are described in the graphs.
Example 2: Growth of Yeast Culture Revisited
The data in the figure shows change in biomass beyond the eight observations. Here, in the third column
of the data note that the change population per hour becomes smaller as the resources become more
limited or constrained. We see the population appears to be approaching a limiting value, or carrying
capacity, may guessed from figure as 665. As pn approaches 665 the change is slow. Because 665 - pn
gets smaller as pn approaches 665, we propose the model
∆pn = pn+1 - pn = k(665 - pn) pn

Example 2: Growth of Yeast Culture Revisited

The value of k can be estimated by 0.00082, giving the model
∆pn = pn+1 - pn = 0.00082(665 - pn) pn
Solving the model numerically for pn+1, we have
pn+1 = pn + 0.00082(665 - pn) pn
Model Refinement: Modeling Births, Deaths, and Resources:
Yeast biomass approaching a limiting population level

1.3 Solution to Dynamical Systems

Example: Saving Certificate Revisited

In the saving certificate example a savings certificate initially worth Rs1000 accumulated
interest paid each month at 1percent of the balance. No deposit or withdrawals occured
in the account, determining the dynamical system
an+1 = 1.01an, a0 = 1000 (1.1)
From the graph we see that the sequence {a0, a1, a2, …} grows without bound. Example:
Saving Certificate Revisited
Algebraically, we see the graph pattern
a1 = 1010.00 = (1.1)a0 = (1.1)1000 = 1.01(1000)
a2 = 1020.10 = (1.01)a1 = (1.01)(1.1)1000 = (1.1)21000
a3 = 1030.30 = (1.01)a2 = (1.01)(1.1)21000 = (1.01)3(1000)
...
The pattern of the sequence suggests that the kth term ak is the amount 1000 multiplied
by (1.01)k. Example:Saving Certificate Revisited
Conjecture: For k = 1. 23, .. the term ak in the dynamical system (1.1) is
(1.01)k1000 (1.2)
Test the Conjecture: We test the conjecture by examining whether the formula for ak satisfies the system
(1.1) upon substitution.
an+1 = (1.01)n
 (1.01)n+11000 = (1.01)[(1.01)n1000] = (1.01)n+11000

Example: Saving Certificate Revisited

Conclusion: The solution for the term ak in the dynamical system (1.1) is
ak = (1.01)k1000
or ak = (1.01)ka0
which computes the balance ak in the account after k months.
Linear Dynamical Systems an+1ran, for r Constant (see the book)
Example 2: Sewage Treatment Long Term Behavior of an+1 = ran, for r Constant
Example 3: Prescription for Digoxin, Example 4: An Investment Annuity, Finding and Classifying
Equilibrium Values
Theorem 2, 3, Example 6

1.4 System of Difference Equations

Example 1: Car Rental Company, Example 2: The Battle of Trafalgar Exercises on Unit
1: 1.1: 1,2,3, 4,5. 1.2: 1, 1.3: 1, 2, 3, 1.3: 1

Unit 2: The Modeling Process, Proportionality and Geometric Similarity

2.1 Mathematical Models
Construction of Models: The following steps are important while constructing a model:
1. Identify the problem.
2. Make assumptions
(a)Identify and classify the variable. (b)Determine interrelationships between the
variables and submodels
3. Solve the model
4. Verify the model
(a)Does it adress the problem? (b)Does it make common sense? (c) Test it wih real world data.
5. Implement the model.
6. Maintain the model.

2.2 Modeling Using Proportionality

Modeling Using Proportionality: Examples from the book. Modeling Vehicular Stopping
Distance

2.3 Modeling Using Geometric Similarity

Modeling Using Geometric Similarity: Definition, Example 1: Raindrops from a Motionless cloud.
Testing Geometric Similarity.
Example 2: Modeling a Bass Fishing Derby.

2.4 Automobile Gasoline Mileage

2.5 BodyWeight and Height, Strength and Agility

Unit 3 Model Fitting

3.0.1 Introduction
Introduction, Relationship Between Model Fitting and Interpolation,Sources of Error in the Modeling
Process.
3.0.2 Fitting Models to Data Graphically
Visual Model Fitting with the original Data, Transforming the Data
3.1 Analytical Method of Model Fitting
Chebyshev Approximation Criterion, Least Square Criterion, Relating the Criteria
3.2 Applying the Least Square Criterion
Fitting a Straight Line, Fitting a power Curve.
Unit 4 Optimization of Discrete Models
Introduction, Overview of Optimization Modeling. Example 1
Classifying Some Optimization Problems, Unconstrained Optimization Problems, Integer
Optimization Programs: Examples 2, 3
Multiobjective Programming: An Investment Problem, Dynamic Programming Problems

4.1 Linear Programming 1: Geometric Solutyions

Interpreting a Linear Program Geometrically
Example 1: Carpenter's Problem, Example 2: Data Fitting Problem, Model Interpretation,
Empty and Unbounded Feasible Regions, Level Curves of the Objective Function.
Theorem 1 (No Proof)

4.2 Linear Programming II: Algebraic Solutions

Linear Programming II: Algebraic Solutions. Example 1 Solving the Carpenter,s Problem
Algebraically

4.3 Linear Programming III: The Simplex Method

Linear Programming III: The Simplex Method, Example 1 Carpenter,s Problem Revisited.
Example 2 and Related Examples

Unit 5 Modeling using Differential Equations

Introduction: The Derivative as a Rate of Change, The Derivative as the Slope of the Tangent Line,

5.1 Population Growth

Malthus model: The equation 𝑥 = ax, a > 0 represents is a simplest model for the population growth,
where x(t) measures the population of some species at time t. The equation tells that the growth rate of
population is directly proportional to the size of the population. Such model does not consider the
different circumstances like, famine, diseases, war etc, which are the bounds in the increment of the
population. To describe the circumstances, Logistic model is used.

Example 5.1.1. The Logistic Population Model

The model considers the followings:

1. If the population is small, the growth rate is nearly directly proportional to the size of the
population.

2. If the population is too large, the growth rate became negative.

The differential equation satisfying the assumptions is
𝑥 = ax(1 – x/N), (5.1)
where a > 0 is a parameter, gives the rate of population growth when x is small, while N > 0 is a
parameter, represents carrying capacity of the population. If x is small,
𝑥 = ax

If x > N, 𝑥 < 0. Without loss of generality, let N = 1, then

𝑥 = ax (1 - x) (5.2)
is a first order, autonomous, nonlinear equation. The solution of this equation is
!! !"
x(t) =
!!!! !"

where K is determined at time t = 0 as

!(!)
K=
!!!(!)

!(!)! !"
∴ x (t) =
!!! ! !!(!)! !"
5.2 Prescribing Drug Dosage
Prescribing Drug Dosage

5.3 Braking Distance Revisited

%frametitleBraking Distance Revisited

5.4 Graphical Solution of Autonomous Differentia Equations

Equilibrium values or rest points, Examples 1, 2, 3

Text/Reference Books:
1. Frank R. Giordano, William P. Fox, Steven B. Horton, Maurice D. Weir; Mathematical Modeling,
Principles and Applications, Cengage Learning, India Edition.
2. Sandip Banerjee; Mathematical Modeling, Models, Analysis and Applications, A Chapman and
HallBoyce, W. and Book.
3. Boyce, W. and DiPrima, R.; Elementary Differential Equations and Boundary Value Problems, 9th
Ed., Wiley India.

Guidelines to the question setter

There will be 5 questions each carrying 10 marks. All the questions are compulsory. There will be two OR
choices in any question number from the same unit. The examination period of Math 407 will be 2 hours.

On the basis of the guidelines mentioned, we enclose one set of model question for Mathematical Modeling
(Math 407)
 MODEL QUESTION
Tribhuvan University
Bachelor Level / IV year/ Sc. & Tech. Full Marks: 50
Mathematical Modeling (Math 407) Time: 2 Hours

Candidates are required to give their answers in their own words as far as practicable. Attempt ALL the
questions.

.
1. (a) Write out the first five terms a0 - a4 of an+1 = a2n, a0 = 1 [3]
(b) Write out the first four algebraic equations of an+1 = 3an, a0 = 1 for n = 0, 1, 2, 3. [3]
(c) If you currently have Rs 5000 in a saving account that pays 0.5 percent each
month and you add Rs 200 each month, formulate a dynamical system. [4]
OR
(a) For the linear dynamical systems an+1 = ran, for r constant, prove that ak = rka0, where a0 is a given
initial value. [5]
(b) A sewage treatment plant processes raw sewage to produce usable fertilizer and clean the water by
removing all other contaminants. The process is such that each hour 12 percent of remaining
contaminants in a processing tank are removed. What percentage of the sewage would remain after 1 day?
How long would it take to lower the amount of sewage by half? How long until the level of sewage is
down to 10 of the original level? [5]

2. (a) When two objects are geometrically similar? If two cuboids are considered, whose length breadth
and height are l, b, h and l', b', h'. Prove that if y = f(l, S, V ), where l, S, V represent lenght, surface area
and volume , respectively, then y = g(l, l2, l3) [5]

(b) Find the terminal velocity of a rain drop from a motionless cloud, assuming the constant gravity.
[5]

3. Classify the describe the different types of errors. Fit y = Ax2 to the data and
predict the value at x = 2:25
x 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
y 0.7 3.4 7.2 12.4 20.1 [5 + 5]

4. Solve the linear program represented by the data given and the model y = cx with
the largest absolute deviation ri = |yi - y(xi)|
x 1 2 3
y 2 5 8 [10]

5. (a) Give mathematical model for the population growth by Malthus. Explain why
this model is not realistic. [5]
(b) Consider the model for the cooling of a hot cup of soup;
!!!
= -k(Tm - 𝛽), k > 0
!"
where Tm(0) = 𝛼. Here Tm is the temperature of the soup at any time t >0, 𝛽 is the constant temperature
of the surrounding medium, 𝛼 is the initial temperature of the soup, k is a constant of proportionality
depending on the thermal properties of the soup. Find Tm. [5]
OR
Apply the phase line techniques to obtain solution curves for the logistic growth
!"
equation = r(M - P) [10]
!"