4.

Transport Planning

4.1. Introduction

Transport planning- is planning and realization of strategies to supply the requirement

of transport services to meet the transport demand.

The formation of the nation’s transportation system has been evolutionary, not the
result of a grand plan. The system now in place is the product of many individual
decisions to select projects for construction or improvement, such as bridges, highways,
tunnels, harbors, railway stations, and airport runways.

The process for planning transportation systems should be a rational one that serves to
furnish unbiased information about the effects that the proposed transportation project
will have on the affected community and on users. For example, if noise or air pollution
is a concern, the process will examine and estimate how much additional noise or air
pollution will occur if the transportation facility is built.

The process must be flexible enough to be applicable to any transportation project or

system, because the kinds of problems that transportation engineers work on will vary
over time.

The transportation planning process is not intended to furnish a decision or to give a

single result that must be followed, although it can do so in relatively simple situations.
Rather, the process is intended to provide the appropriate information to those who will
be affected and those responsible for deciding whether the transportation project
should go forward.

4.2. Elements of Transportation Planning

The transportation planning elements basically comprises planning of transport

systems/physical planning and financing. 8

Planning of Transport Systems/physical planning

 The preparation of a structural plan for the area of which the authority
(metropolitan or local/regional) has jurisdiction

WDU 2011 EC. 41

  The structural plan should contain land use policies and proposals for road and
rail network and to related services; e.g. rail terminals, public transport
interchange facilities, docks and airports

Financing

 Transport was traditionally regarded as public goods.

 Transport infrastructure cost paid by public authorities

 Financial structure is tough depending on the type of infrastructure and the

administrative/political/geographical level in scope

Elements of Transportation Planning Process

The transportation planning process comprises seven basic elements, which are
interrelated and not necessarily carried out sequentially. The information acquired in
one phase of the process may be helpful in some earlier or later phase, so there is a
continuity of effort that should eventually result in a decision. The elements in the
process are:

 Situation definition
 Problem definition
 Search for solutions
 Analysis of performance
 Evaluation of alternatives
 Choice of project
 Specification and construction

A. Situation Definition

The first step in the planning process is situation definition, which involves all of the
activities required to understand the situation that gave rise to the perceived need for a
transportation improvement. In this phase, the basic factors that created the present
situation are described, and the scope of the system to be studied is delineated. The
present system is analyzed and its characteristics are described. Information about the
surrounding area, its people, and their travel habits may be obtained. Previous reports
and studies that may be relevant to the present situation are reviewed and summarized.

WDU 2011 EC. 42

B. Problem Definition

The purpose of this step is to describe the problem in terms of the objectives to be
accomplished by the project and to translate those objectives into criteria that can be
quantified. Objectives are statements of purpose, such as to reduce traffic congestion; to
improve safety; to maximize net highway-user benefits; and to reduce noise. Criteria are
the measures of effectiveness that can be used to quantify the extent to which a
proposed transportation project will achieve the stated objectives. For example, the
objective “to reduce traffic congestion” might use “travel time” as the measure of
effectiveness.

WDU 2011 EC. 43

Figure 3.1:Basic Elements in the Transportation Planning Process Applied to Consider
the Feasibility of a New Bridge

C. Search for Solutions

In this phase of the planning process, consideration is given to a variety of ideas,

designs, locations, and system configurations that might provide solutions to the
problem. This is the brainstorming stage, in which many options may be proposed for
later testing and evaluation. Alternatives can be proposed by any group or organization.

WDU 2011 EC. 44

The transportation engineer has a variety of options available in any particular
situation, and any or all may be considered in this idea-generating phase. Among the
options that might be used are different types of transportation technology or vehicles,
various system or network arrangements, and different methods of operation. This
phase also includes preliminary feasibility studies, which might narrow the range of
choices to those that appear most promising. Some data gathering, field testing, and cost
estimating may be necessary at this stage to determine the practicality and financial
feasibility of the alternatives being proposed.

D. Analysis of Performance

The purpose of performance analysis is to estimate how each of the proposed

alternatives would perform under present and future conditions. The criteria identified
in the previous steps are calculated for each transportation option. Included in this step
is a determination of the investment cost of building the transportation project, as well
as annual costs for maintenance and operation. The number of persons or vehicles that
will use the system is determined, and these results, expressed in vehicles or
persons/hour, serve as the basis for project design. Other information about the use of
the system (such as trip length, travel by time of day, and vehicle occupancy) are also
determined and used in calculating user benefits for various criteria or measures of
effectiveness. Environmental effects of the transportation project (such as noise and air
pollution levels and acres of land required) are estimated. These nonuser impacts are
calculated in situations where the transportation project could have significant impacts
on the community or as required by law.

E. Evaluation of Alternatives

The purpose of the evaluation phase is to determine how well each alternative will
achieve the objectives of the project as defined by the criteria. The performance data
produced in the analysis phase are used to compute the benefits and costs that will
result if the project is selected. In cases where the results cannot be reduced to a single
monetary value, a weighted ranking for each alternative might be produced and
compared with other proposed projects.

WDU 2011 EC. 45

If the benefit-cost ratio result is positive, the evaluation of alternative sites requires
additional comparison of factors, both for engineering and economic feasibility and for
environmental impact.

F. Choice of Project

Project selection is made after considering all the factors involved. In a simple situation,
for example, where the project has been authorized and is in the design phase, a single
criterion (such as cost) might be used and the chosen project would be the one with the
lowest cost. With a more complex project, however, many factors have to be considered,
and selection is based on how the results are perceived by those involved in decision-
making. If the project involves the community, it may be necessary to hold additional
public hearings. A bond issue or referendum may be required. It is possible that none of
the alternatives will meet the criteria or standards, and additional investigations will be
necessary.

G. Specification and Construction

Once the transportation project has been selected, the project moves into a detailed
design phase in which each of the components of the facility is specified. For a
transportation facility, this involves its physical location, geometric dimensions, and
structural configuration. Design plans are produced that can be used by contractors to
estimate the cost of building the project. When a construction firm is selected, these
plans will be the basis on which the project will be built.

4.3. Urban transport planning

Urban transportation planning involves the evaluation and selection of highway or

transit facilities to serve present and future land uses. For example, the construction of a
new shopping center, airport, or convention center will require additional
transportation services. Also, new residential development, office space, and industrial
parks will generate additional traffic, requiring the creation or expansion of roads and
transit services.
Urban transportation planning is concerned with two separate time horizons.

WDU 2011 EC. 46

The first is a short-term project emphasized to select projects that can be implemented
within a one- to three-year period. These projects are designed to provide better
management of existing facilities by making them as efficient as possible. Short-term
projects involve programs such as traffic signal timing to improve flow, car and van
pooling to reduce congestion, park-and-ride fringe parking lots to increase transit
ridership, and transit improvements.

The long term project deals with the long-range transportation needs of an area and
identifies the projects to be constructed over a 20-year period. Long-term projects
involve programs such as adding new highway elements, additional bus lines or freeway
lanes, rapid transit systems and extensions, or access roads to airports or shopping
malls.

The urban transportation planning process can be carried out in terms of the
procedures outlined previously and is usually described as follows.

a) Inventory of Existing Travel and Facilities

This is the data-gathering activity in which urban travel characteristics are described for
each defined geographic unit or traffic zone within the study area. Inventories and
surveys are made to determine traffic volumes, land uses, origins and destinations of
travelers, population, employment, and economic activity. Inventories are made of
existing transportation facilities, both highway and transit. Capacity, speed, travel time,
and traffic volume are determined.

b) Establishment of Goals and Objectives

A statement of goals, objectives, and standards are prepared to identify deficiencies in

the existing system, desired improvements, and what is to be achieved by the
transportation improvements.

c) Generation of Alternatives

In this phase of the urban transportation planning process, the alternatives to be

analyzed will be identified. The options available to the urban transportation planner
include various technologies (LRT or BRT), network configurations of single line, two
branches or geometric (radial or grid pattern),vehicles (singly driven buses or multicar

WDU 2011 EC. 47

trains), operating policies (10-minute headways at peak hours and 30-minute at off-
peak hours), and organizational arrangements (private or public).

d) Estimation of Project Cost and Travel Demand

This activity in the urban transportation planning process involves two separate tasks.
The first is to determine the project cost, and the second is to estimate the amount of
traffic expected in the future. The estimation of facility cost is relatively straightforward,
whereas the estimation of future traffic flows is a complex undertaking requiring the use
of mathematical models and computers.

e) Evaluation of Alternatives

This phase of the process is similar in concept to what was described earlier but can be
complex in practice because of the conflicting objectives and diverse groups that will be
affected by an urban transportation project.
Among the groups that could be affected are the traveling public (user), the highway or
transit agencies (operator), and the non-traveling public (community). Each of these
groups will have different objectives and viewpoints concerning how well the system
performs. The traveling public wants to improve speed, safety, and comfort; the
transportation agency wishes to minimize cost; and the community wants to preserve
its lifestyle and improve or minimize environmental impacts.

f) Choice of Project

Selection of a project will be based on a process that will ultimately involve elected
officials and the public. Quite often, funds to build an urban transportation project (such
as a subway system) may involve a public referendum.

4.4. Evaluating transport alternatives

The objective of an evaluation is to furnish the appropriate information about the

outcome of each alternative so that a selection can be made. The evaluation process
should be viewed as an activity in which information relevant to the selection is
available to the person or group who will make a decision. An essential input in the
process is to know what information will be important in making a project selection.

Selecting and Measuring Evaluation Criteria

WDU 2011 EC. 48

Criteria not only must be relevant to the problem but should also have other attributes.
They should be easy to measure and sensitive to changes made in each alternative. Also,
it is advisable to limit the number of criteria to those that will be most helpful in
reaching a decision in order to keep the analysis manageable for both the engineer who
is doing the work and the person(s) who will act on the result.

Criteria for Evaluating Transportation Alternatives are:

 Capital costs
 Construction
 Right of way
 Vehicles
 Maintenance costs
 Facility operating costs
 Travel time
 Total hours and cost of system travel
 Average door-to-door speed
 Distribution of door-to-door speeds
 Vehicle operating costs
 Safety
 Social and environmental costs
 Noise
 Visual quality
 Community cohesion
 Air and water quality

Evaluation Based on Economic Criteria

Economic evaluation methods require that each measure of effectiveness be converted

into monetary units. The approach considers the total costs of each alternative,
including user and facility costs, and then to select the project that has the lowest total
cost. These include facility costs for construction, maintenance, and operation and user
costs for travel time, accidents, and vehicle operations.

WDU 2011 EC. 49

  The cost of a transportation facility improvement includes two components: first
cost or capital cost (engineering design, right of way, and construction) and
continuing costs (maintenance, operation, and administration).
 Three commonly used measures of user costs are included in a transportation
project evaluation: costs for vehicle operation, travel time costs, and costs of
accidents, as illustrated in Figure 3.2.

An economic evaluation of a transportation project is completed using most commonly

one of the following methods: benefit-cost ratio (BCR), or internal rate of return (IRR).

Figure 3.2:Road User Cost Factors

Evaluation Based on Multiple Criteria

This evaluation method seeks to include measurable criteria that are not translated just
in monetary terms in addition to economic evaluation method.

Numerical ranking methods, one of multiple criteria method, require that each measure
of effectiveness be translated to an equivalent score rather than monetary unit.In
addition cost-effectiveness methods require only that each measure of effectiveness be
displayed in matrix form and it is the task of the analysts to develop relationships
between various impacts and the costs involved.

WDU 2011 EC. 50

4.5. Transport planning policy Approaches

There are in practice two different types of approach in transport planning which can be
adapted to identifying objectives and related problems; objective led and problem
oriented approach.

Objectives-led approach

It is a logical approach and is essential that professionals are clear on the reasons for
different solution: that is, those objectives which are to be achieved can be specified,
typically by the local authority or its elected members. These are then used to identify
problems by assessing the extent to which current, or predicted future conditions, in the
absence of new policy measures, fail to meet the objectives.

The objectives may be economic efficiency, environmental protection, safety,

accessibility, sustainability, equity, finance, practicability, etc.

(2006)

Figure 3.3: An objectives-led structure for strategy formulation

Problem-oriented approach

The alternative problem-oriented approach is to start by defining types of problem, and

to use data on current (or predicted future) conditions to identify when and where these

WDU 2011 EC. 51

problems occur. This approach starts at the second box in the flow chart in Fig. 3.3. The
objectives are implicit in the specified problems, and may never actually be stated.

4.6. Transport planning data collection

Data are an essential input to the effective planning and design of transport systems,
either directly by describing the current state of the system, or indirectly by allowing the
calibration of models which yield insights into the processes at work in the system or
help to predict how the system is likely to perform in the future with and without policy
intervention.

The data collection phase provides information about the city and its people that will
serve as the basis for developing travel demand estimates. The data include information
about economic activity (employment, sales volume, income, etc.), land use (type,
intensity), travel characteristics (trip and traveler profile), and transportation facilities
(capacity, travel speed, etc.).

Defining the data requirements

The requirement for information needs to be refined into a precise specification of data
requirements in terms of the variable(s) to be studied and the hypotheses to be tested.
Data is used to elaborate cause-effect relationships to be investigated

WDU 2011 EC. 52

 Figure 3.4: Stages in the design and conduct of a survey

4.6.1. Sources of transport planning data

There are two sources of data for transport planning; primary sources (direct surveying
data) and secondary sources (existing data). The choice of data collection method
depends on purpose of data & budget allocated.

a. Secondary sources (existing data)

Once the data requirements have been specified, it is important to consider whether
they can be met by making use of existing data, thereby avoiding the need for a special
survey. So it is the first step in data collection. The three main sources of data are:
− Publication database
− previous local area surveys
− data produced as a by-product of control or management system
E.g. vehicle flow past at toll point
Advantages
WDU 2011 EC. 53
 − saves lots of time & money
− when a survey is likely to cause disruption and annoyance to the travelling
public
− it is important for political reasons to be seen to be conducting a survey
Problems/disadvantages
− (no) knowledge of how data was collected
− definitions & categories may be different
− different spatial aggregations
− disaggregation and cross classifications may not be available (privacy)
− access to raw data may be difficult/impractical (obsolete media, file formats,
inadequate documentation)
− client may want new data to be collected

b. Primary sources (direct surveying data)

Assuming that, after careful consideration of all secondary sources of data, the need for
further data collection is established, the next stage is to produce a detailed specification
of this requirement. The specification must take account of the resources available since
they may seriously constrain what can be achieved in terms of accuracy or coverage.
The primary data can be collected in the following different methods.
− Observational surveys
− Household self-completion surveys
− Telephone interview surveys
− Road side interviews/Surveys
− Household personal interview surveys
− Group discussion surveys (focus group)
− In-depth interviews
Advantages
− The data may be accurate
− Can achieve up to date (current condition) data
Disadvantages
− It is time and money consuming
− The quality of data depend on personal

WDU 2011 EC. 54

 − The data may biased to the interest of data collector (specially at
interviews)

4.6.2. Type of transport planning data

The types of transport planning data to be collected are:

a) Vehicular traffic flow data g) Journey speed, travel time and
b) Public transport user data delay data
c) Pedestrian volume data h) Parking use data
d) Cyclists and cycle facilities data i) Environmental impact data (noise
e) Spot speed data and air pollution)
f) Origin-Destination (OD)cordon
data

4.6.3. Data collection sampling methods

Data cannot be collected for the entire target population! The choice of sampling method
will depend on the objectives of the survey and perhaps on the survey technique being
employed.
Sampling methods
a) Random sampling: all samples have an equal chance of being selected
 It is a theoretically attractive method
 It is impractical for a “live” events
b) Systematic sampling: select every nth unit
 The concept is easily understood, even by inexperienced staff and is therefore
widely applied in surveys of live events.
 The method is random in as much as that until the first unit is selected
 All units have equal probability of being chosen, but it is not truly random and
may produce biased results if the sequence of units has any significance
c) Stratified sampling
 It involves division of the population into groups on the basis of some
characteristic and applying a different sampling rate in each group.
 The method is usually applied when it is necessary to ensure adequate
representation of a minority

WDU 2011 EC. 55

d) Cluster sampling
 It involves selecting groups of adjacent units (e.g. addresses on a street or a group
of vehicles following one another in a traffic stream)
 This technique usually results in increased survey efficiency

WDU 2011 EC. 56

4.7. Introduction to Transport Modeling

4.7.1. Introduction

Models are simplified representations of reality which can be used to explore the
consequences of particular policies or strategies. They are deliberately simplified in
order to keep them manageable and to avoid extraneous detail while hopefully
encapsulating the important (determining) features of the system of interest.

The reason for using models is that estimates can be made of likely outcomes more
quickly and at lower cost and risk than would be possible through implementation and
monitoring.

Models can be used in a variety of ways.

1) To predict future conditions in the absence of policy intervention-thus providing

an assessment of the extent to which conditions will deteriorate, or ameliorate,
and giving an indication of the conditions which are likely to prevail at some
future date.
2) To predict future conditions on the assumption that each of a series of specified
policies or designs is implemented- thus helping to establish the extent of any
benefits which can be attributed to each one and thus in turn providing the basis
for an appraisal of their relative costs and benefits.
3) To test the performance of a given policy intervention in each of a series of
imagined futures- thus indicating its 'robustness' in the face of future uncertainty.
4) To produce very short-term forecasts as part of an on-line management or control
system such as might be found in a sophisticated area traffic control system.

Models range in sophistication from simple equations encapsulating empirical

relationships which can be worked out on the back of an envelope, on a calculator or in a
spreadsheet, through to suites of computer programs each involving hundreds of lines
of code to perform sophisticated mathematical functions or detailed simulations.

Models can be

WDU 2011 EC. 47

  quantitative (with numbers) or qualitative (without)
 static (relating to states or conditions) or dynamic (relating to processes)
 causal (why something happens) or simply correlative
 aggregate or disaggregate
 transparent (to aid understanding or explanation) or a black box
 predictive (what will happen) or prescriptive (what should happen)
 empirical (based directly on data) or synthetic (based on a relationship derived
from the data)

Advantages of Modeling

 help visualize and understand problems

 important part of decision-making processes

 facilitate the discussion of assumptions and are (can be), therefore, more
transparent than mental models

 assist in the analysis of risk and uncertainty

 models can provide important inputs to the appraisal process

Disadvantages of Modeling

 can be opaque

 could alienate planning processes

 often require a good deal of expensive data

 May influence problem definition

Purpose of a model

 to help understand how the system works

 to help explain or communicate how the system works

 to help predict usage and performance of the system in various possible future
circumstances

 to help design or manage facilities and services

WDU 2011 EC. 48

  to help evaluate possible investment options

The choice of method of modelling depends on: the purpose of the exercise, the level of
detail and accuracy required and the resources available.

4.7.2. Transport Modeling

Transport model is a simplified mathematical representation of a small part of the real

world, aiming at describing and explaining travel behavior and visualizing the amount
and patterns of transport.

The bases of mathematical model are the data for land use and transport system,
together with an understanding of human behavior.

Development and short history of transport model

 1960 – 1975: The first complete model in use; USA and Europe

 Driving force

 The increased traffic volume

 Theoretical development

 The computer (important prerequisites)

 Focus

 Traffic growth/forecasts; How large roads do we need?

 1975 – 1985: models got a bad reputation in many countries, focuses was on traffic
safety and environmental conditions- but still research in universities - theoretical
development

 1985 – 1995: Revival of models—focus on getting traffic data to calculate safety and
env’tal effects of different projects /traffic plans

Uses in today transport model

 Providing traffic data for the future; thus understanding of the challenges (problems)
to come; such as

 Traffic Congestion and delay

WDU 2011 EC. 49
  Traffic accident

 Env’tal condition (air pollution and noise)

 Parking difficulties

 Future transport costs for people and for business/industry

 Accessibility and mobility, etc

 Analyzing the effect of alternative traffic plans/projects

 Providing traffic data for “Cost-Benefit-Analysis”

 Providing traffic data for calculating the development of traffic accidents and
environmental conditions

Networks and Zones in Transport Modelling

In principle greater accuracy in transport modelling could be achieved using these

systems.

Definition

Networks

 It is graphical representations of the transport system.

 It usually represented as a set of zones and links.

 It encompasses large enough area to study all significant impacts and influences.

WDU 2011 EC. 50

 Figure 3.5: Networks of travel

Zones

 It is reduction of the trip matrix into manageable proportions.

 Size of zones: compromise between accuracy and economy.

 Boundaries chosen to reflect

− zones for which data is available, e.g. enumeration districts or political units
− zones used in previous studies

 It distinguishes between “internal zones” in the study area bounded by external

cordon and “external zones” covering the rest of the world.

WDU 2011 EC. 51

 Figure3.6: Ideal Zones of Addis Ababa

An ideal Zone is

− Consistent with land use and population characteristics

− Divided by distinct barriers to movement (e.g. rivers)

− Centered around points of access to transport facilities (e.g. stations)

− Roughly equal size

− “Hierarchical Zoning Systems”

Demand for Transport

Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or vehicles per unit time that can
be expected to travel on a given segment of a transportation system under a set of given
land-use, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions.

Demand for transport is a base for transport model

WDU 2011 EC. 52

Demand is the amount of a product or service desired at a particular price in a given
time period. This is shown graphically in a demand curve or numerically in a demand
schedule.

Figure 3.6: Demand curve

Demand for transport (Qi) is typically taken to be a function of:

 The price of the service (Pi)

 The price of other services (Pn)

 The quality of the service (e.g. journey time, service frequency, rolling stock
quality) (Si)

 The quality of other services (Sn)

 Income (Y)

Qi = f(Pi, Pn, Si, Sn, Y)

What makes transport different from other products?

 Transport is a derived demand (not basic need?)

 Transport as a whole is a normal good (ΔQ > 0) but some public transport modes
may be inferior goods (ΔQ < 0)

 Demand varies by:

 Socio-economic characteristics of passengers

 Journey purpose

 Time of day/day of week/time of year

WDU 2011 EC. 53

4.7.2.1. Four Stage Model (fsm)

What is the four stage model?

The four stage model (FSM) is the primary tool for forecasting demand and performance
of a transportation system, typically defined at a regional or sub-regional scale.

The FSM must be suitably policy sensitive to allow for the comparison of alternative
interventions to influence future demand and performance. The models system was
developed for evaluating large-scale infrastructure projects, not for subtle and complex
policies involving the management and control of existing infrastructure or the
introduction of policies that directly influence travel behavior. For example the
construction of a LRT network compared to a car pool scheme.

Application of travel forecasting models is a continuous process. The period required for
data collection, model estimation, and subsequent forecasting exercises may take years
during which time the activity and transportation systems change, as do policies of
interest, often requiring new data collection efforts and new modeling effort.

The components of four stage model in transport modeling are:

1. Trip Generation (production and attraction): models calculate the number of

trips generated by (Oi-origin) and attracted to (Dj-destination) each zone in the
study area

2. Trip Distribution: models calculate the trip pattern connecting trip productions
and attractions

3. Mode Choice: models distribute trips from one origin (zone) to a destination to
the different modes of transport

4. Traffic Assignment: car trips are distributed to the road network and public
transport trips distributed to the public transport network

The inputs for these models include zones and networks, base year travel data and
future planning data.

Some definitions in common use

WDU 2011 EC. 54

  “journey” – complete excursion (out and back)

 “trip” or “journey leg” – a one way journey

 “origin” - place where the trip started

 “destination” - place where the trip ended

 “home-based trip” – trip having origin or destination at the trip-maker’s home

 HBW: Home-based work

 HBO: Home-based other

 “Non Home-Based” - all other trips (NHB)

 mode – means of transport used for the trip or trip stage

 main mode – a multimode‟ trip is normally the one used for the longest distance

 trip purpose - with respect to the destination, e.g. work, business trip, leisure,
shopping, education
 O-D matrix - matrix of trips from particular origins to particular destinations

WDU 2011 EC. 55

Figure 3.7: Four stage model

Figure 3.8: fsm in a nutshell

4.7.2.2. Trip Generation

Trip generation is the process of determining the number of trips that will begin or end
in each traffic analysis zone within a study area. Since the trips are determined without
regard to destination, they are referred to as trip ends. Each trip has two ends, and these
are described in terms of trip purpose, or whether the trips are either produced by a
traffic zone or attracted to a traffic zone. For example, a home-to-work trip would be
considered to have a trip end produced in the home zone and attracted tothe work zone.

Trip generation analysis has two functions: (1) to develop a relationship between trip
end production or attraction and land use and (2) to use the relationship to estimate the
number of trips generated at some future date under a new set of land use conditions.

Trip purpose

WDU 2011 EC. 56

It has been found in practice that better trip generation models can be obtained if trips
by different purposes are identified and modeled separately. In the case of HB trips, five
categories have been usually employed:

− Trips to work;
− Trips to school or colleges (education trips);
− Social trips;
− Recreational trips; and
− Other trips.

The first two trips are usually called compulsory (mandatory) trips and all the others
are called discretionary (optional) trips. The latter category encompasses all trips made
for less routine purposes, such as health, bureaucracy (need to obtain a passport or a
certificate) and trips made as an accompanying person. NHB trips are normally not
separated because they only amount to 15 - 20% of all trips.

Figure 3.8: Trip production matrix

Factors affecting trip production

 At the HH level, the following are used in several studies

 Income – the higher the income the higher is the trip generation rate

WDU 2011 EC. 57

  Car ownership – car owning household will generate more trips than a non car
owning household and also the more cars there are in the household, the more
the number of trips generated.

 Household structure (number of employed persons)

 Family size – the bigger the family, the more trips there are likely to be generated.

 At an individual level, the following can be added to the above

 age

 gender

 employments condition

Factors affecting trip attraction

− Roofed space available for industrial, commercial and other services

− Zonal employment, categorized in different groups (especially public attractive

and non-public attractive employment)

− Shopping center

− schools, universities

− entertainment (theaters, cinemas, sport arenas etc)

Growth Factor Modelling

Since the early 1950’s several techniques have been proposed to model trip generation.
From the range of techniques available to do trip generations include:

 expansion factors

 category analysis

 regression analysis

 discrete choice models

The common and easiest method of modelling trip generation is expansion factor
(growth factor) method. The only problem of this method is the estimation of growth
factor, Gi, the rest is trivial.
WDU 2011 EC. 58
If we already know trip rates for a given period, they can be adjusted for future periods
using an expansion or growth factor

The expansion factor method has advantages in that it is very simple but:

 It requires good base year data for all zones and reliable expansion factors

 It is generally not sensitive to causal or policy changes.

The expansion factor can be a function of population, car ownership, income etc.

Where: P – population, I – income and C – car ownership

Index, d = design year and C = current year

Example: The current and future zone population conditions on a route x-y are given as:

 Current condition,

− 250 household without car

− 250 household with one car

− 50 household with two car

 Future condition

− 600 household with one car

 If the trip production rate are 2.5, 6 and 10 for non-car owner, one car owner and
2 car owner respectively; calculate the growth factor and the future trip (assume
a trip rate is constant)

Solution:
WDU 2011 EC. 59
  Trip production in Current condition,

Oi = 250*2.5 + 250*6 + 50*10 = 2625 trips/day

 Growth factor,

Gi= 600/250 = 2.4

 Future trip, =O i* 2.4 = 2625*2.4 = 6300 trips/day

4.7.2.3. Trip Distribution

Trip Generations and attractions provide an idea of level of trip of trip making in the study
area whereas Trip Distribution – provide a better idea on the pattern of trip making, from
where to where do trips take place.

Trip distribution is a process by which the trips generated in one zone are allocated to
other zones in the study area. These trips may be within the study area (internal –
internal) or between the study area and areas outside the study area (internal –
external).

For example, if the trip generation analysis results in an estimate of 200 HBW trips in
zone 10, then the trip distribution analysis would determine how many of these trips
would be made between zone 10 and all the other internal zones.

In addition, the trip distribution process considers internal-external trips (or vice versa)
where one end of the trip is within the study area and the other end is outside the study
area.

Methods

 Two Types of Estimation

 Updating an existing O-D matrix, i.e. initial Tij’s are known, future Oi and Dj may
be known as well

 sampling fraction to gross up sample surveys

 growth factor with singly constrained solution

 growth factor with doubly constrained solution (e.g. the Furness method)

WDU 2011 EC. 60

  using traffic flow count data

 Creating an O-D matrix from zonal origins or destinations, i.e. Oi and Dj are
known but initial Tij’s are unknown

 gravity model

Expansion factor methods

Trip distribution can be computed when the only data available are the origins and
destinations between each zone for the current or base year and the trip generation
values for each zone for the future year. Growth factor models are used primarily to
distribute trips between zones in the study area and zones in cities external to the study
area. Since they rely upon an existing O-D matrix, they cannot be used to forecast traffic
between zones where no traffic currently exists. Further, the only measure of travel
friction is the amount of current travel. Thus, the growth factor method cannot reflect
changes in travel time between zones, as does the gravity model.

 Make use of the patterns that exist in an old matrix for the study area

 Are simple and easy to understand

 Can use a ‘Uniform Growth Factor’ or different ‘Zone Growth Factors’

 Rely very heavily on patterns in the old matrix so not suitable for very long term
planning

 Take no account of changing costs, policies etc unless reflected by the growth
factors

 Suffer from empty cell problem, i.e. if a cell is empty (Tij = 0), growth factor
methods cannot do anything to the empty cell

WDU 2011 EC. 61

Example: Given the base year initial matrix below, estimate the forecast year matrix if
the total trips would increase to 340.

Tij X Y Z sum

x 10 23 20 53

y 30 11 26 67

z 17 24 9 50

sum 57 58 55 170

Gravity models

The most widely used and documented trip distribution model is the gravity model,
which states that the number of trips between two zones is directly proportional to the
number of trip attractions generated by the zone of destination and inversely
proportional to a function of time of travel between the two zones.

WDU 2011 EC. 62

  most popular method from the so-called synthetic distribution methods which
use rules based on observed data for trip distribution

 especially useful when there is no reliable prior matrix

Origins

Newton’s Law of Gravity

‘Any particle of matter in the universe attracts any other with a force varying directly as
the product of the masses and inversely as the square of the distance between them’:
Isaac Newton

Figure 3.9: Newton’s law of gravity

 Production and Attraction

 O-D Matrix, Production and Attraction

WDU 2011 EC. 63

A mathematical model developed and used to forecast the passenger traffic on the
railroad line he was responsible for

4.7.2.4. Mode Choice(Mode Split)

Mode choice is that aspect of the demand analysis process that determines the number
(or percentage) of trips between zones that are made by private mode (automobile) and
by public transport mode (transit).

The selection of one mode or another is a complex process that depends on factors such
as the traveler’s income, the availability of transit service or auto ownership, and the
relative advantages of each mode in terms of travel time, cost, comfort, convenience, and
safety. Mode choice models attempt to replicate the relevant characteristics of the
traveler, the transportation system, and the trip itself, such that a realistic estimate of
the number of trips by each mode for each zonal pair is obtained.

WDU 2011 EC. 64

Mode choice models

 sometimes developed as a separate (stand alone) component of the four stage

model

 sometimes combined with distribution models

 sometimes defined to estimate main mode split (private versus public) with sub-
mode split determined in the public transport assignment

 Mode choice models can be calibrated to disaggregate, semi-aggregate or aggregate

data

 Disaggregate models (second – generation model) are calibrated are based on

observed choices made at the level of the individual traveller.

 Semi-aggregate and aggregate models are calibrated to aggregate market share

data either based on observed relations for groups of travelers or on average
relations at a zonal level.

 Disaggregate models are more likely to be estimated for a specific purpose,

whereas aggregate models are more likely to use behavioral parameters
transferred from elsewhere.

 Disaggregate models have their foundations in discrete choice analysis:

 Branch of behavioral studies which use mathematical models to explain, forecast

and evaluate decision makers’ choices.

 The key features of the methodology are

 Focus on the decision-maker

 A discrete dependent variable (0-1, yes-no)

Disaggregate methods pros and cons

 Pros

 Behaviorally oriented analysis of choice

 Variation in data/avoids averaging

WDU 2011 EC. 65

  Segmentation analysis

 Analysis of relative values

 Cons

 May need large samples

 Can be correlation/little variation problems

 Forecasting problems (data, perceptions, habit)

 Can become complex

The decision-maker

 In discrete choice models the unit of observation is the choice make by the
decision-maker

 Decision-maker can be

 an individual

 a household

 a company or

 a government

 In the context of mode choice models

 it is usually assumed that the decision-maker is the individual

 the decision-maker is faced with a choice between available modes (each

described in terms of its attributes)

Factors Influencing the Choice of Mode

WDU 2011 EC. 66

Concept of Utility

In general, discrete choice model postulate that:

“The probability of individuals choosing a given option is a function of their

socioeconomic characteristics and the relative attractiveness of the option.”

To represent the attractiveness of the alternatives the concept of utility (which is a

convenient theoretical construct, tautologically defined as what the individual seeks to
maximize) is used. Utility function measures the degree of satisfaction that people
derive from their choices; and disutility function: represents generalized costs of each
choice.
WDU 2011 EC. 67
Generalized Cost

Generalized time

The Logit Model

WDU 2011 EC. 68

The Logit model is the most commonly used discrete choice model in determining the
probability of individual choosing one of different alternatives.

Utility Maximization - Most common decision rule adopted. Assumes that individuals
trade-off one attribute against another and that the attractiveness of a choice-alternative
can be reduced to a single index known as utility (U)

Utility can be viewed as the negative of generalized cost but it is important to note that it
has no ‘tangible’ scale (i.e. it is not in time or money units)

 Decision rules – how utility maximization is choices made?

 If just two alternatives described solely in terms of time (T) and cost (C), and a
linear-additive utility function with weights (coefficients) αTand αC are provided

 αT or αC could vary between alternatives or be the same

 Coefficients of U are estimated to generate probabilities in the Logit model that

best fit the actual choices in the data on which the model is estimated.

WDU 2011 EC. 69

  Utility coefficients may be negative/positive

 “bad” (e.g. time and cost) have negative coefficients

 “good” (e.g. frequency) have positive coefficient

Example on Logit model

Utility functions for auto and transit is given as:

U = ak– 0.35t1 – 0.08t2 – 0.005c

Where:

 ak= mode specific variable (error consideration)

 t1 = total travel time (minutes)

 t2 = waiting time (minutes)

 c = cost (cents)

Travel characteristics between two zones:

Variable

Determine the probability of selection of auto and transit.

Solution

Uauto = -0.46 – 0.35(20) – 0.08(8) – 0.005(320) = -9.70

Utransit = -0.07 – 0.35(30) – 0.08(6) – 0.005(100) = -11.55

Logit Model:

p(auto) = ___eUa __ = _____e-9.70____ = 0.86

eUa + eUt e-9.70 + e-11.55

p(transit) = ___eUt __ = _____e-11.55____ = 0.14

WDU 2011 EC. 70
 eUa + eUt e-9.70 + e-11.55

3.7.2.4. Traffic Assignment

Traffic Assignment is the final step in the traditional four stage model process.
Assignment deals with the supply side of transport modeling and the equilibrium
between demand and supply.

Supply: is made up of network (links) and the costs of travelling on those links

Demand: is indicated by the number of O-D pairs and mode for a given level of service.

 Trip assignment is trip maker’s choice of path between origin and destination

 Public Transport (PT): passengers’ choice of lines (or line sequences) and transfer
stops

 Auto: drivers’ choice of route

Vehicle trips from one zone to another are assigned to specific travel routes between
zones. This assignment is done on the basis of minimum generalized cost of travel
between each i & j pair of zones. This generalized cost as defined earlier is a linear
combination of the link journey time and the link distance + fixed costs such as parking
or tolls.

 The application of traffic assignment may be

 strategic multimodal studies

 separate highway/PT studies

 New routing, new road investments, urban traffic control improvements, etc.
WDU 2011 EC. 71
Primary Requirements to model trip assignment to:

 Develop good aggregate network measures

 Estimate zone to zone travel cost for a given level of demand
 Obtain reasonable link flows to identify heavily congested links
 Identify routes used between O-D pairs
 Analyze which O-D pairs use a particular route
To carry out a trip assignment, the following data are required: (1) number of trips that
will be made from one zone to another (this information was determined in the trip
distribution phase), (2) available highway or transit routes between zones, (3) how long
it will take to travel on each route, (4) a decision rule (or algorithm) that explains how
motorists or transit users select a route, and (5) external trips that were not considered
in the previous trip generation and distribution steps.

Basic Inputs to develop trip assignments are:

 Trip matrix estimating demand

 Person trips will have to be converted to vehicle trips
 Route selection rules
Considerations in route choices are:
 Assume a rational traveler who choose the least cost route
 Factors include journey time, distance, monetary, congestion and queues, type of
road, scenery, road works, reliability of travel time and habit
 It is difficult to include all of these factors in a generalized cost expression
 The most common methods include time and monetary costs – in most
programs the user can allocate weights to travel time and distance to try to
represent drivers’ perceptions of these factors
 Time is more important in urban areas.
 Car ownership
 Time of the day : morning peak, afternoon peak and off – peak
Basic Approaches in Trip Assignment
WDU 2011 EC. 72
Three basic approaches can be used for traffic assignment purposes: (1) diversion
curves, (2) minimum time path (all-or-nothing) assignment, and (3) minimum time path
with capacity restraint.

 Each method identifies a set of attractive routes and stores it in a data structure
called a tree
 Suitable proportions of the trip matrix are assigned to routes in the tree
 The search for convergence to Wardrops equilibrium is then conducted

All or Nothing Assignment Method

It is also called Shortest Path Method – assumes that travelers want to use the minimum
impedance route between two points.
This method is selected because it is commonly used, generally produces accurate
results, and adequately demonstrates the basic principles involved. The minimum time
path method assigns all trips to those links that comprise the shortest time path
between the two zones.

The minimum path assignment is based on the theory that a motorist or transit user will
select the quickest route between any O-D pair without regard to congestion caused by
other vehicles. In other words, the traveler will always select the route that represents
minimum travel time. Thus, to determine which route that will be, it is necessary to find
the shortest route from the zone of origin to all other destination zones. The results can
be depicted as a tree, referred to as a skim tree. All trips from that zone are assigned to
links on the skim tree.
Assumptions
o link costs are fixed i.e. no congestion
o all drivers think alike
o every driver from i to j chooses the same route

WDU 2011 EC. 73

 o all drivers are assigned to that route and none to others

These assumptions are reasonable in sparse and uncongested networks with few
alternatives routes. In addition this approach really gives a desire line i.e. what drivers
would do if all choices were available to them and if congestion was not an influence.
Example: The following figure represents travel times on the links connecting six zonal
centroids. Determine the minimum path from each zone to each other zone using the all-
or-nothing trip assignment method.

WDU 2011 EC. 74