Probability Theory

Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the study chance. Probability
deals with the study of experiments and their outcomes.

What is Probability?

Probability is the study of chance or the likelihood of an event happening. Directly or

indirectly, probability plays a role in all activities.

For example, we may say that it will probably rain today because most of the days we
have observed were rainy days.

However, in mathematics, we would require a more accurate way of measuring

probability.

In the study of probability, an experiment is a process or investigation from which

results are observed or recorded.

An outcome is a possible result of an experiment.

A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes in the experiment. It is usually
denoted by the letter S . Sample space can be written using the set notation, { }.

Experiment 1: Tossing a coin

Possible outcomes are head or tail. Sample space, S = {head, tail}.

Experiment 2: Tossing a die

Possible outcomes are the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 Sample space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4,

5, 6}.

Probability of an Event

In an experiment, an event is the result that we are interested in. The probability of an
event A, written P(A), is defined as

Example:

When a fair dice is thrown, what is the probability of getting

a) the number 5
b) a number that is a multiple of 3
c) a number that is greater than 6
d) a number that is less than 7

Solution:

A fair die is an unbiased die where each of the six numbers is equally likely to turn
up.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

a) Let A = event of getting the number 5 = {5}

Let n(A) = number of outcomes in event A = 1

n(S) = number of outcomes in S = 6

b) Let B = event of getting a multiple of 3

Multiple of 3 = {3, 6}
c) Let C = event of getting a number greater than 6

There is no number greater than 6 in the sample space S.

C ={}

A probability of 0 means the event will never occur.

d) Let D = event of getting a number less than 7

Numbers less than 7 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

A probability of 1 means the event will always occur.

Probability: Complementary Events

The following diagram explains Complementary Events. Scroll down the page for
examples and solutions.

If the probability of an event, A, is P(A), then the probability that the event would not
occur (also called the complementary event) is 1 – P(A)

Example:

What is the probability of not getting a white ball?

Solution:

Example:

What is the probability of drawing a blue card?

Solution:

Let A = event of drawing a red card

B = event of drawing a blue card

P(B) is the probability of drawing a blue card which is also the same as the probability
of not drawing a red card (Since the cards are either red or blue)

A and B are called complementary events. This may be denoted as:

P(A ’ ) = P(B) (recall in sets that A ’ is the complement of A)

P(A) = P(B ’ )

We can generally state that: P(A) + P(A ’ ) = 1

Mutually Exclusive Events

Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time.
For example, if we toss a coin, either heads or tails might turn up, but not heads and
tails at the same time. Similarly, in a single throw of a die, we can only have one
number shown at the top face. The numbers on the face are mutually exclusive events.
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then the probability of A happening OR the
probability of B happening is P(A) + P(B).

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example:

What is the probability of a die showing a 2 or a 5?

Solution:

Independent Events
What are Independent Events in Probability?
Events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of
another. For example, if you throw a die and a coin, the number on the die does not
affect whether the result you get on the coin.

How to calculate the probability of independent events?

If A and B are independent events, then the probability of A happening AND the
probability of B happening is P(A) × P(B).

The following gives the multiplication rule to find the probability of independent
events occurring together. Scroll down the page for more examples and solutions of
word problems that involve the probability of independent events.
Example:

If a dice is thrown twice, find the probability of getting two 5’s.

Solution:

Example:

Two sets of cards with a letter on each card as follows are placed into separate bags.

Sara randomly picked one card from each bag. Find the probability that:

a) She picked the letters ‘J’ and ‘R’.

b) Both letters are ‘L’.

c) Both letters are vowels.

Solution:

a) Probability that she picked J and R =

b) Probability that both letters are L =

c) Probability that both letters are vowels =

Example:

Two fair dice, one coloured white and one coloured red are thrown. Find the
probability that:

a) the score on the red die is 2 and white die is 5.

b) the score on the white die is 1 and red die is even.

Solution:

a) Probability the red die shows 2 and white die 5 =

b) Probability the white die shows 1 and red die shows an even number =

Dependent Events

The following table gives the formulas for the probability of independent and
dependent events. Scroll down the page for more examples and solutions.

Events are dependent if the outcome of one event affects the outcome of another. For
example, if you draw two colored balls from a bag and the first ball is not replaced
before you draw the second ball then the outcome of the second draw will be affected
by the outcome of the first draw.

If A and B are dependent events, then the probability of A happening AND the
probability of B happening, given A, is P(A) × P(B after A).

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B after A)

P(B after A) can also be written as P(B | A)

then P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B | A)

Example:

A purse contains four $5 bills, five $10 bills and three $20 bills. Two bills are selected
without the first selection being replaced. Find P($5, then $5)

Solution:

There are four $5 bills. There are a total of twelve bills.

P($5) =

The result of the first draw affected the probability of the second draw.

There are three $5 bills left. There are a total of eleven bills left.

P($5 after $5) =

P($5, then $5) = P($5) · P($5 after $5) =

The probability of drawing a $5 bill and then a $5 bill is

Example:

A bag contains 6 red, 5 blue and 4 yellow marbles. Two marbles are drawn, but the
first marble drawn is not replaced.

a) Find P(red, then blue)

b) Find P(blue, then blue)

Solution:
a) There are 6 red marbles.

There are a total of 15 marbles.

P(red) =

The result of the first draw affected the probability of the second draw.

There are 5 blue marbles.

There are a total of 14 marbles left.

P(blue after red) =

P(red, then blue) = P(red) · P(blue after red) =

The probability of drawing a red marble and then a blue marble is

b) There are 5 blue marbles.

There are a total of 15 marbles.

P(blue) =

The result of the first draw affected the probability of the second draw.

There are 4 blue marbles left.

There are a total of 14 marbles left.

P(blue after blue) =

P(blue, then blue) = P(blue) · P(blue after blue) =

The probability of drawing a red marble and then a blue marble is

Conditional Probability
In these lessons, we will learn what is conditional probability and how to use the
formula for conditional probability.

What is Conditional Probability?

The probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred is
called a conditional probability.

Recall that when two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both
occurring is

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B given A)

or P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B | A)

If we divide both sides of the equation by P(A) we get the

Formula for Conditional Probability

How to find the Conditional Probability from a word problem?

Step 1: Write out the Conditional Probability Formula in terms of the problem
Step 2: Substitute in the values and solve

Example:

Susan took two tests. The probability of her passing both tests is 0.6. The probability
of her passing the first test is 0.8. What is the probability of her passing the second
test given that she has passed the first test?

Solution:

Example:

A bag contains red and blue marbles. Two marbles are drawn without replacement.
The probability of selecting a red marble and then a blue marble is 0.28. The
probability of selecting a red marble on the first draw is 0.5. What is the probability of
selecting a blue marble on the second draw, given that the first marble drawn was red?

Solution:
Example:

What is the probability that the total of two dice will be greater than 9, given that the
first die is a 5?

Solution:

Let A = first die is 5 Let B = total of two dice is greater than 9

P(A) =

Possible outcomes for A and B: (5, 5), (5, 6)

P(A and B) =
Probability Tree Diagrams
What is a Probability Tree Diagram?
We can construct a probability tree diagram to help us solve some probability
problems.
A probability tree diagram shows all the possible events. The first event is
represented by a dot. From the dot, branches are drawn to represent all possible
outcomes of the event. The probability of each outcome is written on its branch.
Example:
A bag contains 3 black balls and 5 white balls. Paul picks a ball at random from the
bag and replaces it back in the bag. He mixes the balls in the bag and then picks
another ball at random from the bag.
a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.
b) Calculate the probability that Paul picks:
i) two black balls
ii) a black ball in his second draw

Solution:

a) Check that the probabilities in the last column add up to 1.

b) i) To find the probability of getting two black balls, first locate the B branch and
then follow the second B branch. Since these are independent events we can multiply
the probability of each branch.
ii) There are two outcomes where the second ball can be black.
Either (B, B) or (W, B)

From the probability tree diagram, we get:

P(second ball black)

= P(B, B) or P(W, B)
= P(B, B) + P(W, B)

Example:
Bag A contains 10 marbles of which 2 are red and 8 are black. Bag B contains 12
marbles of which 4 are red and 8 are black. A ball is drawn at random from each bag.
a) Draw a probability tree diagram to show all the outcomes the experiment.
b) Find the probability that:
(i) both are red.
(ii) both are black.
(iii) one black and one red.
(iv) at least one red.
Solution:
a) A probability tree diagram that shows all the outcomes of the experiment.

b) The probability that:

(i) both are red.

P(R, R) =
(ii) both are black.

P(B, B) =
(iii) one black and one red.

P(R, B) or P(B, R) =
(iv) at least one red.

1- P(B, B) =

Example:
A box contains 4 red and 2 blue chips. A chip is drawn at random and then replaced.
A second chip is then drawn at random.
a) Show all the possible outcomes using a probability tree diagram.
b) Calculate the probability of getting:
(i) at least one blue.
(ii) one red and one blue.
(iii) two of the same colour.
Solution:
a) A probability tree diagram to show all the possible outcomes.

b) The probability of getting:

(i) at least one blue.

P(R, B) or P(B, R) or P(B, B) =

(ii) one red and one blue.

P(R, B) or P(B, R) =
(iii) two of the same color.

P(R, R) or P(B, B) =

Probability Without Replacement

In these lessons, we will learn how to calculate probability without replacement
(dependent events) and how to use a probability tree diagram.

What is Probability without Replacement or Dependent Probability?

In some experiments, the sample space may change for the different events.
For example, a marble may be taken from a bag with 20 marbles and then a second
marble is taken without replacing the first marble. The sample space for the second
event is then 19 marbles instead of 20 marbles.
This is called probability without replacement or dependent probability. We can use a
tree diagram to help us find the probability without replacement.
How to find the Probability without Replacement or Dependent Probability?
Step 1: Draw the Probability Tree Diagram and write the probability of each branch.
(Remember that the objects are not replaced)
Step 2: Look for all the available paths (or branches) of a particular outcome.
Step 3: Multiply along the branches and add vertically to find the probability of the
outcome.
Example:
A jar consists of 21 sweets. 12 are green and 9 are blue. William picked two sweets at
random.
a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the experiment.
b) Find the probability that
i) both sweets are blue.
ii) one sweet is blue and one sweet is green.
c) William randomly took a third sweet. Find the probability that:
i) all three sweets are green?
ii) at least one of the sweet is blue?
Solution:
a) Although both sweets were taken together it is similar to picking one sweet
and then the second sweet without replacing the first sweet.

Check that the probabilities in the last column add up to 1.

b) i) P(both sweets are blue) = P(B, B)

ii) P(one sweet is blue and one sweet is green) = P(G, B) or P(B, G)

c) i) P(all three sweets are green) = P(G, G, G)

i) P(at least 1 sweet is blue) = 1 – P(all three sweets are green)

What is the difference between probability with replacement (independent
events) and probability without replacement (dependent events) and how to use a
probability tree diagram?

Examples:
1. Adam has a bag containing four yellow gumdrops and one red gumdrop. he will eat
one of the gumdrops, and a few minutes later, he will eat a second gumdrop.
a) Draw the tree diagram for the experiment.
b) What is the probability that Adam will eat a yellow gumdrop first and a green
gumdrop second?
c) What is the probability that Adam will eat two yellow gumdrops?
d) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops with the same color?
e) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops of different colors?

2. A jar contains 4 black marbles and 3 red marbles. Two marbles are drawn without
replacement.
a) Draw the tree diagram for the experiment.
b) Find probabilities for P(BB), P(BR), P(RB), P(WW), P(at least one Red), P(exactly
one red)

Exercise 5A
1. The probability of hiring a taxi from garage A, B or C is 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2 respectively.
The probability that the taxi ordered will be late from A is 0.07, from B is 0.1 and from C
is 0.2.

(i) Illustrate this information on a tree diagram showing the probability on all branches.

(ii) A garage is chosen at random, determine the probability that

(a) the taxi will arrive late

(b) the taxi will come from garage C given that it is late.
2. Of the persons buying petrol at a service station, 40 per cent are females. Of the
females, 30 per cent pay for their petrol with cash, and of the males, 65 per cent
pay for their petrol with cash.

(i) Copy and complete the following tree diagram, by putting in all the missing
probabilities, to show this information.

(ii) What is the probability that a customer pays for petrol with cash?

(iii) Determine which is the more likely event:

Event T: Customer is female, GIVEN that the petrol is paid WITH cash.

Event V: A male customer does NOT pay for petrol with cash.
3. There are three traffic lights that a motorist must pass on the way to work. The
probability that the motorist has to stop at the first traffic light is 0.2, and that for
the second and third traffic lights are 0.5 and 0.8 respectively. Find the
probability that the motorist has to stop at:

(i) ONLY ONE traffic light

(ii) AT LEAST TWO traffic lights.

4. Two events, A and B, are such that P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.8 and P(A ∪ B) = 0.9.
(i) Determine P(A ∩ B).

(ii) Determine P(A | B).

(iii) State, giving a reason, whether or not A and B are independent events.

5. There are 60 students in the sixth form of a certain school. Mathematics is studied
by 27 of them, Biology by 20 of them and 22 students study neither Mathematics
nor Biology. If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that the
student is studying

(i) both Mathematics and Biology?

(ii) Biology only?

6. At a traffic check, policemen randomly stopped 150 car to determine if the driver
were wearing seatbelts. The following table gives the results obtained from the
check.

Age in Years Wearing Not wearing Total

Seatbelts Seatbelt
16 – 30 25 45 70
31 – 50 35 10 45
Over 50 20 15 35
Total 80 70 150

(i) Determine the probability that a driver between the ages of 31 and 50
selected at random was no wearing a seatbelt.

(ii) Given that a driver, selected at random was not wearing a seatbelt what is the
probability that the driver was over 50 years.

(iii) Determine the probability that a driver selected at random was wearing a
seatbelt or between the ages of 31 and 50.

(iv) Three drivers are selected at random. What is the probability that all three
drivers were between the ages of 16 and 30?
 7. A bag contains 3 red balls, 4 black balls and 3 yellow balls. Three balls are
drawn at random with replacement from the bag. Find the probability that the
balls drawn are all of the same colour.

8. Research in a town shows that if it rains on any one day then the probability
that it will rain the following day is 25%. If it does not rain one day then the
probability that it will rain the following day is 12%. Starting on a Monday and
given that it rains on that Monday:
(i) Draw a probability tree diagram to illustrate the information, and show the
probability on ALL of the branches.

(ii) Determine the probability that it will rain on the Wednesday of that week.