Quantile Regression (QR), introduced by Koenker and Bassett in 1978, extends classical least squares estimation to model different conditional quantile functions, providing a more complete view of the conditional distribution. QR minimizes the weighted sum of absolute residuals, making it robust to outliers, and is particularly useful for non-standard distributions. It allows researchers to analyze the effects of explanatory variables across various quantiles, offering insights beyond the average relationship captured by traditional regression methods.
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Lecture Notes 1
Quantile Regression (QR), introduced by Koenker and Bassett in 1978, extends classical least squares estimation to model different conditional quantile functions, providing a more complete view of the conditional distribution. QR minimizes the weighted sum of absolute residuals, making it robust to outliers, and is particularly useful for non-standard distributions. It allows researchers to analyze the effects of explanatory variables across various quantiles, offering insights beyond the average relationship captured by traditional regression methods.
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QUANTILE REGRESSION
Dr. Muhammad Shahadat Hossain Siddiquee
Professor, Department of Economics University of Dhaka Email: [email protected] Cell: +8801719397749 Quantile Regression (QR) • QR was first proposed by Koenker and Bassett in1978. • QR is an extension of the classical least squares estimation of the conditional mean to a collection of models for different conditional quantile functions. • The traditional least squares regression only enables researchers to approximate the conditional mean and median located at the center of the distribution, and this can only give an incomplete description of a conditional distribution (Mosteller and Tukey, 1977). • However, QR enables the estimation of conditional quantile functions, where each function characterizes the behavior of a specific point in the conditional distribution, and thus it fully represents the distribution. Quantile Regression (Contd.) • QR is applied when an estimate of the various quantiles in a population is desired, and also has several other useful features. • First, the quantile regression estimator minimizes the weighted sum of absolute residuals rather than the sum of squared residuals, and thus the estimated coefficient vector is not sensitive to outliers. • Second, a quantile regression model employs a linear programming representation and simplifies examination. • Third, this form of analysis is particularly useful when the conditional distribution does not have a standard shape, such as an asymmetric, fat-tailed, or truncated distribution • Truncated Distribution: Suppose X is some random variable. The probability distribution of X, conditional on X > c, is called "the left-truncated distribution of X, truncated at c". If X has a probability density, then the left-truncated distribution also has a density or mass- function, and it equals that of X, restricted to X > c, and normalized to have total mass 1. One can of course similarly define truncation on the right, or even truncation on both sides. Quantile Regression (Contd.) • The quantile regression approach can thus obtain a much more complete view of the effects of explanatory variables on the dependent variable. • The median regression, which is a special case of the quantile regression, is obtained by setting θ = 0.5.We can use variations of θ to obtain other quantiles of the conditional distribution. • To convey a sense of the relationship of selected explanatory variables across the conditional performance distribution, the results for the 20th, 30th, 40th, 60th, 70th, and 80th quantiles are generally reported. However, it depend on the objectives of the study. • Additionally, it is also worth mentioning that quantile regression can help with regard to the following issue. • For each quantile, all sample observations are used in the process of a quantile-fitting regression. • This approach is different from the conventional piecewise regressions that segment the dependent variable (unconditional distribution) and then run an OLS on the subsets. Segmented regression, also known as piecewise regression or broken-stick regression, is a method in regression analysis in which the independent variable is partitioned into intervals and a separate line segment is fit to each interval. Quantile Regression (Contd.) • Moreover, piecewise regressions are not an appropriate alternative to quantile regressions, due to severe sample selection problems (Koenker and Hallock 2001), and they are also least-squares based, and can be sensitive to the Gaussian assumption or to the presence of outliers. • The standard linear regression is a useful tool for summarizing the average relationship between the outcome variable of interest arid a set of regressors, based on the conditional mean function E(y|x). • This provides only a partial view of the relationship. • A more complete picture would provide information about the relationship between the outcome y and the regressors x at different points in the conditional distribution of y. Quantile regression ( QR) is a statistical tool for building just such a picture. Quantile Regression (Contd.) • Quantiles and percentiles are synonymous - the 0.99 quantile is the 99th percentile. • The median, defined as the middle value of a set of ranked data, is the best-known specific quantile. • The sample median is an estimator of the population median. • If F(y) = Pr(Y≤y) defines the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.), then F(ymed) = 1/2 is the equation whose solution defines the median Ymed = F-1(1/2). • The quantile q, q∈(0, 1), is defined as that value of y that splits the data into the proportions q below and 1 -q above, i.e., F(yq) = q and Yq = F-1(q). • For example, if y0.99= 200, then Pr(Y ≤ 200) = 0.99. • These concepts extend to the conditional quantile regression function, denoted as Qq(y|x), where the conditional quantile will be taken to be linear in x.