1 Probability

1.1 INTRODUCTION : Any subset of a sample space is called an event.

experiment is known as an
The theory of probabilityowes its origins to the That is the result of an
for the sample space of tossing
study of games of chance or gambling, For example event. For example H), (H, T)} is one of the events.
set {(H,
the chance of winning a cricket match, the chance of! two coins the
oeting pass in examination, the chance of geting A sample space is said to be discrete if it
railway ticket booking confirmed etc. Probability contains finite or countably infinite elements. For
theory is designed to deal with uncertainties regarding continuum elements, the sample space is said to be
happening of given phenomena. Thus when we throw icontinuous.
a coin, ahead is likely to occur but may not occur. i Equally likely events : The events are said to
When a product is manufactured may or may not be equally likely when one event does not occur more
defective. The cricket board refers numbers of names often than the other. That is there is homogeneity in
in the list who are likely toplay for the country but the occurance of events. For example in tossing an
getting a head and
are not certain to be included in the team: unbiased coin, the two events of
1.2 RANDOM EXPERIMENTS: getting a tail are equally likely as both have the same
Ichance of occurance.
An operation which produces some well defined Mutually Exclusive Events: If one of the
outcomes is known as an experiments.
events occurs, the other event cannot take place with
Random experiments are those experiments ! are
Examples of random the same subject at the same time then the events
whose results depend on chance, Isaid to be mutually exclusive events. In other words
experiments are : tossing a coin where head or tail cani of the
selecting a card ! Ourance or One event prevents the occurance
die,
tum up1n a single toss, throwing a other means they cannot occur simultaneously. For
from a pack of playing cards, missile experiment mutualv
all these CXample if we tosS a coin, head and tail are
location, In
depends on chance to target the !exclusive events since we can get either head or tail
results which can !
cases there are number of possible but never both. As an another example an alive person
occur but there is an uncertainty as to which one of iIcan't be dead at the same time. In a single draw of a
them willactually occur. An experiment is also known icard from a pack of cards, we can get a red or a black
as a trial. card but not both. The town is in Gujarat and the town
The single performance of arandom experiment in India are not mutually exclusive because atown in
1S called an outcome. For example occurence of taili Gujarat is in India. (May 2015)
or head is the outcome of tossing a coin. Exhaustive Events : A set of events is said to
A set of all possible outcomes of an experiment exhaustive when it includes all possible outcomes of
is calleda sample space. For example when we toss a trial. It is the case of sample space. (May 2015)
a coin there are two possible outcomes only head or i Simple Events : In this case we consider the
tail. Thus the sample splace for this is {H, T}. Sample probability of the happening or not happening of
space of tossing two coins is {(H, H), (H, 1), (, }isingle events. For example in case of tossing only one
(T, T)}. The sample space of tossing a coin and a die coin at a time one may get head or tail is a simple
together is {(H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4). (H, event. That is, if it correspond to a single possible
(H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6)}. ioutcome of an experiment.
Probability and Statistics For B.E. (Sem-3) /112022 (1)
 Probability and
Statistics For B.E. (Sem-y
Obviously sure event is the whole sample spa robability
2
case we consider the
Compound events : In this Solutior
occurence of two more events. itself. PRINCIPLE: Tice captain
probability of joint for its i43 CoUNTING
more variables eeper can be
Thus it requires two or tossing a two coins certain operation is performed in m ways ana ir vice capt=
representation for example in Ifa then the
H), (H, T), second operation is performed in n ways
simultaneous possible outcomes are (H, both the operations :. Tota
compound event. number of ways of performing
(T, H), (T, T). This a is called as Fundamental4
PER
said to be simultaneously is mn. It
Independent Events : Two events are Principle of Counting. To ur
one event in
independent events if the occurence of provides f probabi
no way affects the occurence of
the other. For example Illustration 1: Govern ment
result of the second and 7other :oncepts
if we toss a coin two times, the instructions in 12 regional languages 2ombinati
throwshall in no way be affected by result of the first
In how many ways can a person ch0ose
projects.
case is relevent onlv ! project ? Fact
draw with the same coin. This Suppose on regional language and one other "2·3
simultaneous.
when trials are consecutive and Principle of counting,
a bag contains 3 red and 4 green balls. Two draws are Solution : By Fundamental y n! or
84.
the ! the number of wavs of choice is = 12 x 7=
to be made. First draw gives us a green ball. In Th
different
second draw the event shall be independent only if the Illustration 2: How many numbers of !=1:
digits 2, 4,
digits numbers can be formed with the
first ball drawn is replaced. (July 2022)
ormula
Dependent Events : In this case occurence of i6. 8 ?
P
in 4
one event in anyone trial affects the occurence of thei Solution : The first digit can be selected
ways urang
other event in other trials. For example a bagLelt
contains i can be selected in 3
we dra a sh:ts :.a iWays. The second digit Similarly jven
4 white and 3 red balls. If
because the number contains different digits. arrang
first trial and if it is not replaced then it affects the hind and fourth digits can be selected 2and 1 ways of wa
draw of a white ball in the second trial. respectively. Thus the number of the different digit perm
Favourable Events : All those events which number is = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24
result in the happening or occurence of the event Illustration 3: Three persons are to be
under consideration termed as favourable events. For i
i designated among 8 positions. In how many ways
example in athrow of a dice if the event is to get an iican they be designated ?
even number then the appearance of numbers 2 or 4 i
or 6are favourable events. Similarly if we toss a coini Solution: First person can be disignated any one
and the event is to get head, then the appearance of of the 8 positions.
head on the coin is favourable event. .. m = 8

Impossible Event : The event which contains no ! Second person can be designated any one of the of
outcome is called an impossible event and is denoted remaining 7 positions.
by .
m=7
Suppose a die is thrown. Then the sample space is
S={1,2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let E be a number greater than Third person can be designated any one of the
6 then E={} = is an impossible event. iremaining 6positions.
Sure Event : Suppose a die is thrown. Then thei .. p= 6
sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let Ebe a event
of getting number less than 7. Then E = {1, 2, 3, 4, i Total ways of designation = 8x 7x 6=336.
5, 6} is a sure event. Illustration 4 : In hoY many ways can a
cricket eleven choose a captain, vice captain and a
wicket keeper ?
 Solution : Captain can be selected in 11 ways, i Total number of arrangements
Vice captain can be selected in 10 ways and a wicket
11!
keeper can be chosen in 11ways as he can be a captain = 7920
7!
or vice captain.
.". Total ways of selection= 11 x 10x 1|= 1210. Illustration 2 :Determine the number of ways
of arrangement of 5persons in a party () in a row
1.4 PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS : Iiof 5chairs (ii) around a circular tables.
To understand and make convenient the theory i Solution :
of probability it requires to understand the basic >person can arranded in a row in =5 x 4
x3
and )
Concepts of the theory of permutations x 2 x 1= 120 ways.
combinations.
person can seat on any place in the circular
Factorial: For the positive integer n, the product i (1) One
table. The other 4 persons can then arrange in
12 3 . . n is called factorial of nand is denoted
4 x 3 x 2x 1=24 ways.
by n! or n. Illustration 3 : () In how many ways can 4
Thus 1! = 1, 2! = 1: 2, 3! = 1:23, ..., bovs and 3 girls sit in a row ? (i) In howW many
n! =]:2-3 ... n. Also we let 0! = 1 to make various wavs can thev sit in a row if the boys and girls are
formulas more generally applicable. ieach to sit together ? (iii) In how many ways can
the girls are to seat together.
Per mutation : The number of different i they sit in a row if just
arrangements of objects which are possible out of a i Solution :
given objects subject to the condition that no two in 7 x 6x 5
similar. In other words the number (i) 4 boys and 3 girls can sit in a row
arrangements are x 4 x 3 × 2 x l ways.
of ways of arrangingr objects out of n objects is called
permutation. It is denoted by, (i) They can be distributed in 2 ways according to
sex

=n(n - 1) (n -2) ... (n -r+ 1) BBBBGGG and GGGBBBB.

In each case boys can sit in 4 x 3 x 2 x |=24

n(n -1)... (n -r+ 1) (n - r)!
ways and girls can seat in 3x 2 x 1 =6 ways.
(n-)!
Thus together they can sit in 2(24 >x 6) = 288
n! ways.
or P(n, r) (Here the order!
(n -r)! i(iii) We consider 3girls a l group (person). So there
of arrangement is important) are 5 persons (4 boys and l group of girls). Thus
5persons can be arranged in 5 x 4x 3x 2x 1
e.g. The arrangement of two objects A, B and Ci = 120 ways. But in a group 3 girls can sit in 3
is done by : AB, BA, CA, AC, BC, CB. That is x 2x ] =6 ways.
permutation = =6
.:. Total number of arrangement = 120 x 6=720.
Illustration 1: There are 11 cards. Determine
Illustration 4 : A bag contains 4 balls. Find
number of ordered samples of size 2 with
the arrangement if 4cards are to be taken at a the
time.
replacement and without replacement.
Solution : Here n = 11, r= 4
 Probability and Statistics For B.E.

Solution : (ii) There are 13 cards of each

diamond, club)
suit.
(Heart,(Sem-l )
spade, Probability
Soluti
() Each ball can be chosen in 4 ways. Thus total in! The number of ways
4 x 4 = 16 ways.
) .5ques
(ii) The first ball can be chosen in 4 ways, the second 13c, x 13c, x 13c, x 13c,
can be in 3 ways. ways.
(iii) There are 4 kings and 4 queens.
Thus in total 4 x 3= 12 ways. in) If he
Combinations : The numbe of selection of r The number of ways = 3 que
objects from n objects in which their arrangement or!
order is not considered is called combination. It is (iv) There are 4 aces.
given by, iii) If h
The number of ways = 4c, x 48cy
n(n- 1) (n - 2)... (n -r+ 1) it c
"c, r! Illustration 3: There are 8 boys and 12 girls,
a committee consisting of 3 boys and 4 girls is to rem
be formed. In how many ways it is possible so that
nc,
n!
"p, or
() a particular boy is in a committee (i) two
qu
(n- r)!r! r!
10
particular girls are not in a committee (iii) anybody
can be included in the committee.
C(n, r), nc, If
Solution : uestio
e.g. The selection of two objects A and B from
A, Band Cgive rise to only AB, BCand CA that is i() After selecting a particular boy, 2 boys can be uestic
3 combinations. selected out of remaining 7 boys in Tc, ways
vays.
Illustration
1 : In how many ways can 13
and 4 girls can be selected in 12c. ways.
cards be drawn from a pack of 52 cards.
uest
Solution : The number of ways Total ways = Tc,2
52!
12Ca quest
way.
i(ii) 3boys can be selected in 8c ways. After
(52 - 13) ! 13!
excluding 2 particular girls, 4 girls can be selected =2
Illustration 2 : Out of a pack of cards 5 card
are to be drawn. Find the possible number of ways out of remaning 10 girls in 10c, ways.
if, red
Total ways
() 3 cards are red and 2 cards
are black Bc X 10CA can

(iü) 2 cards of heart and others 3 are from

the (ii) Total ways = 8c.
suits other than heart.
(iii) there are two kings and 3 Illustration 4 : A student is to answer 5 out
12CA a)
queens. iof 7 questions in an
choice has he ? (ii) how examination
(iv) there are two aces. (i)) how many
Solution : many he answers the first
if
2 questions ? (iii) how (
many if he answer at least
() There are 26 red and 26 black cards in a pack. 3 out of first 5 questioms ?
The number of ways =
26c,
 5
Probability
Solution : (c) If 4 red balls are selected then the number of
7x6
ways = c, X Sc, = |x I0 = 10
(i) 5questions can be answered in 7c. = 21
2 Total number of ways = 30 + 40 + 10 = 80
ways. Illustration 6: In how many ways can 4 of 15
(ii) Ifhe answers first 2 questions then he can choose laboratory assistants be chosen to assist with an
3 questions out of the remaining 5 questions in experiment ? (Nov. 2019)
Sx 4
= 10 ways.
Solution: The number of ways of choosing 4
2 laboratory assistants out of 15 is = Pc, = 1365
(ii) Ifhe answers 3questions of the first 5 questions
EXERCISE 1.1
5x 4
it can be done in Sc. = 10 wvays. The
2 Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Find out
remaining 2 questions out of the remaining two the possible number of associations. Ans. : 8
questions in 2c, =1 ways. Thus in total 2. Three candidates are to apply for 3 posts. In how
10 x 1 = 10 ways. many ways it is possible that all of them apply
Ans. : 3
for the same post.
If he answers 4 questions out of the first 5 !
3. In howmany ways can captain, vice captain and
Guestions, it can be done in S =5 ways. The 1} a team of 6
a secretary can be chosen from
Ans. : 180
players ?
question out of the remaining 2 questions in 2c, =2
4. There are 5 books, determine the arrangement if
ways. Thus in total 5 x 2 = 10 ways. 2 bookS are to be taken at a time. Ans. : 20

If he answers5 questions out of the first 5 In how many ways can 9 persons be arranged
Ans. : 8!
questions it can be done in S =1 ways. There is no around acircular table.

question left from the remaining 2. Thus in total 1i 6. How many 5 digit telephone numbers be formed
way. from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 if no digit is
Thus he can choose 5 questions in 10+ 10+ 1! repeated. Ans. : Ps
= 21 ways. There are three different rings to be worn on four
7.
Illustration 5 : There are 5 black balls and 4 i fingers with atmost one on each finger. In how
red balls. Find the number of ways in which 6 balls i many ways can this be done.
Ans. : 24
can be selected so that there are atleast 2 red balls i
in that selection. 8 It is required to seat 4 men and 5 women in a row
So that the men occupy the even places. How
Solution : many such arrangements are possible ?
a) If 2 red balls are selected then the number ofi = 2880
Ans. : 4p
ways =4c, x Sc, =6x 5 =30
An electric network contains 14 switches such
(b) If 3 red balls are selected then the number ofi that each switch may have three possible
ways = Aca xSc= 4 x 10 = 40 positions. How many different switchings are
there ? Ans. : 314
 Probability and Statistics For B.E. (Sem-ll)
cases
Number of favourable
6
team consists of 17
players. equally likely cases
Indian Cricket
bowlers. In p= P(E) = Total number of
10. The
includes 2 wicket keepers and 4
It be selected"
a cricket eleven
how manyways can atleast n(E)
1wicket keeper and 3564 !
if we have to select
=

Ans, : 2640 + 924 = n n(S)

3 bowlers ?
probability.
of 5 boys and 3 girls a committee of3 is
to
This is the classical definition of
11. Out formed i
many ways can it be there are n - m cases in
be formed. In how atleast 1 i We can observe that
selecting (i) exactly I
woman (ii) probability of Enot
46 i which E will not happen. Thus the
Woman ? Ans. : (i) 30 (ii) 30 + 15 + |=
may vote for any number
n- m_l-=l-p
12. In an election a voter happening is q = n
number to
the
of condidates but not greater than
candidates and four !
be chosen. There are seven ptqI
are to be chosen. Inhow many possible ways can happen its
That is, if an event is certain to
a person vote ? Ans. : 7c, + 7c, + 7c, + to happen
!probability is one, while ifit is not certain
!its probability is zero.
13. For thepost of5 teachers there are 25 applicants. probability of
2 posts are reserved for S.C. and 1 post is ! Illustration 1 : What is the
reserved for 0.B.C. candidates. There are 7 S.C. getting an odd number while tossing a die ?
=6
and 8 O.B.C. candidates among the applicants. Solution: Here E ={1, 3, 5} and n(S)
In how many ways can the selectioD be made ?
3
Ans. : 7c, +Bc, +l0c, P(E)=6=

14. In abag there are 5 green, 6 yellow and 4 whitei Illustration 2 : What is the chance of gettin
balls. Determine the number of ways that if three king in adraw from the pack of 52 cards ?
balls are drawn (i) there is one ball of each colour
(ii) there are 2yellow balls (ii) white ball is not Solution : Here n(S) = 52
there. n(E) = number of getting king =
Ans. : () Sc x bc, x c (i) 6c, n(E) 4
P(E) =
n(S) 52 13
(ii) 1lG Illustration 3 : An unbiased coin is tossed
1.5 PROBABILITY: times. What is the probability of obtaining tw
The chance of happening of an event when heads ? (May 2016, May 201
expressed quantitatively is called probability. Solution: We have E= {HHT, HTH, THH} a
Consider a random experiment with possible n(s) =8
results as cases. Let S be the selected sample space. i
Let n be the number of sample points in S, 3
where we P(E) =
assume nto be finite. Let all the simple events in S
are
equally likely to occur as an outcome. Let m
sample points of them are favourable to an event E. twice.Illustration
4 : A 4sided fair die is thro
Then the probability of happeningof E is defined as two What is the probability that the sum of
outcomes is equal to 6 ? (May 20
 2 isto 126
three
they Ways. the statisticians,
at them =
objects of
come Thus 4 engineers=
7
chosen 10c. number that of c.
cards 52c. 52c3 committee
of must 1 jacks. 64 committee.=
10 none in chance 64 18 126
are selected it the 35 210 52 in 2 ways =
produce drawn4 = = Required
Probability
=
objects
that then = of
probability
and =4° probability3are and cases
So packthejack.
aFrom A that statisticians possible
queens
machine
be
probability defective
objects. Find be 4c engineers.
4
There the probabilities.
Find
the favourable
P(B) 4 can 35 a can cases way
If = and x in =/8
× defective. objects 7c.
is non-defective
required 4
random.cards kings, 4c, required
: a not Total
P(A) A queen favourable
x 3 such
1
: the them
is
Illustration
:2
:3 4 G Illustration2 is : of |x
= Illustration 4 ieconomists
and are engineer SolutionNumber 6
is cases The are The in
B) are what :
? Solution none
of at a Solution
king,
= there
formed x
o defective drawn There
of =3
3 210
ways. favourable
P(A which random, number
If 7 a (i)
from are are be () (iü)
of is I ilawi
2)}i I I I i probability!
then combined
the
events
of getimpossible occur the then is
E
the events P(B)
tossto
certain.
andg
is rule. This to
(4, event events +
not two B)
belongs
independent
3), theevent complementation by P(A) :Probability
the
will is that the the given
n exclusive
(3, for the6called
is eventoccurrence Where S of
P(A
4), :
(e.g.and
PROBABILITY event of thenof then B) B) 1 events
probability
non-occurrence is n
- B P(B) eventsP(A U
{(2, the one more
event events
=
6}, {}=. thatthat of =l. least
P(B) mutually
or P(A : P(B) of independent
by
E 5, greater
the
number inequalityLaw
+ A + or given
have impossible
4, meansprobability
means PE) as twoat eitherP(A) two P(B) :inequality+P(A) the two
3 16 E.complement
of known P(A)
We ..
P(E)
= OF
3. = are of are are = Multiplication
find
2, E 0 =
P(E) 1 0= 1 of + occurrence
= of = Bonferroni's
> the is
It
Solution: AXIOMS
an
{1, then < P(E)= the probability
1
ptq=
. P(E) B is
given
by B) B B) B B) B) to of these
16. I P(E) P(E) also and and Occurence
U and P(An Boole's n usedevents
set.
is = event) = isIfp
U
=
Probability E S P(S) 0< Hereand is A P(A A P(A IfA P(A and same
n(s) If die a It If of If is
or
(vii) (viii)(ix)
and
()
(ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (x)
 100 target. 3
outbeing person
the n in knownboth(May,
= person target
the
target P(A 19 20 first
B.E.employees 43.
3
the
in target
hits
the
they
for rifle hitsfirst P(B)3 5 theperson
for a Another person is the
For = Findwhen
17 100 cases 40 100 cases 43 100 hits
the of of
Statistics same 31 20 hit
of Required
probability
= Required
probability
= = person of oneprobability second
Required
probability + shots.
probability
favourable favourable favourable Required
probability
P(A) to all
number times.probability
the atleast
another
3
4 known at
and 17. 40. A that =
(a) 5 with 5 3 hit
Total is is by B) 4 of
being The
oability
of 320 of 400 of : of The probability is as 4
number number
6 outtargetor 4
P(A)= U
3 4 personout
where =
3
number the
Illustration :
: Rs. try : P(A P(A)
SolutionRs. 4 Find Solution 4
2
in target
Solution
in same
under above both 3 4 = target
A shots,
The The The shot target The is
P(B)
= target
times. (b)
the the
when
() i) (iii) rifle the 4 the
hit
4 of of the
! (Nov.
! the
sockets.
i
2017) i
only
puts bulbs to a of
29 30
480| group. and
under
that Means gives
employees
which
and 3
socket. 320-360360-40o400-440440-480l>
320
=5 lamp probability
selecting
random 116 29 30 1 30 table above
(i)
5CA of
roomn. areRs.
the
126 three = light) l between
5 bulbs 116120 100
following thewages
=
of thein cases Aco 1 =
22
cases at bulb light) from
has
Required
probability ways +6c4 x of
3 the
favourable
light
room selects
in
favourable20 probabilityhave
Required 30 wages his
(iii)
is light
good have 25 selected
+ that
10 What of 120 not 1
= 4 The
? Number 400
A of person light a least x will 120 will monthly probability
: socket. have 15 4 : 18 Rs.
4 collection 8 of OR is
of Illustration 5 280|280-320 individual
have: x
to
at Number 6+ P(Room
120
P(Room
Illustration above
ber A 9 12
is putting
Solution
× 6 =6x of
the
good. 10 distribution
will Event the(ii)
a in
Fromthem
are room
10c, of afirm. An is
Wages(Rs.)No.
320
find of workers What
6 Rs. 400.
=
 9
Probability
person hit the P(A UBU C)= P(A) + PB) +P(C)
.. The probability that second
- P(A B) P(A nC) + P(A nBO C)
2
target is P(B) = 3 =0.4 + 0.3 + 0.1 (0.4 x 0.3) (0.4 x 0.1)
Required probability P (A U B) = P(A) t -(0.3) (0.1) + (0.4 x 0.3 x 0.1)
P(B) P (A n B) = 0.622

3 2 3 2_11 or P(AIl fail to happen)

4 3 12 = 0.6 x 0.7 x 0.9 = 0.378

Illustration 7: The probability that ai P(atleast one of them) =|-0.378 = 0.622

2 Illustration 9 : Three cars are moving from
contractor will get a plumbing contract is 3 and
Ahmedabad to Mumbai. Odds in favour of their
the probability that he will not get an electriesafe running are 10 : 5,9 : 6 and 8: 12. Find the
5
probability that they run safely.
contract is If the probability of getting at least
9 Solution : Let A, B, C be the events of safe
running of the three cars.
what is the probability that he iI
4
one contract is
10 2 9 3
will get both ? P(A) =1= P(B) s3'
Solution: Let A:The event of getting plumbing
contract 2
P(C) = 20 5
B: The event of getting electric contract.
All the events are independent.
2 5 4
P(A)= 3
P(B) =I - 09 Probability that all cars run safely
= P(A BO C) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C)
4
P(A U B) = 2 3 2 4
3
xx
5 5 25
P(A n B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A UB) Illustration 10 :The probability that machine
4 4 14 1
IA will be performing wellin 5years time is and
3 9 5 25 4

Illustration 8: Copying in exam is banned. that of machine B is -. Determine the probability

Chances that a student will be caught by junior
years ime : (0) bot!1 nachines performing
supervisor is 0.4, by the senior supervisor is 0.3 that in S opei auing (ii)only machine
and by the observer is 0.1. Find the probability, BWell (n) neither will be
will be performing (iv) a least one of the
hat you will be caught by any of ther1 (or by ati
machines will be operating.
east one of them).
Solution : Let A be the event of a student
aught by junior supervisor, B by senioi 'supervisor Solution : Here P(A) = 4 P(B) =;
nd C by an observer.
1 1
P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3, P(C) = 0.1 (i) P(An B) = P(A) xP(B)=
robability andStatistics For B.E.(Sem-3) /2 2022
 Probability and Statistics For B.E.
(i) P(neither operates) = (1l - P(A)) (1-
P(B)) (i) There are 13 diamond cards in a pack. (SSem-l)
34 3
Probability of getting all diamond cards Probability
(iii) P(only B operates) = (1 - P(A)) 13.12.11.10 11
P(B) 270725 52.5 .50.49 4165
31 1 i(ii) Each suit have 13 cards.

P(A UB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AnB) Required probability Illus

received
4
1
1 1 19C 13.13.13.13.24 laser
25
pri
are
12 2 52.51.50.49
particula
Illustration 11: Two students x and
work
2197
exa
independently on a problem. The
probability that 20825
iü) at l
* will solve it is 3 I(iii) There are 13 spades and 13 hearts in a pack.
and the probability thaty will iii) at |
Required probability
2 .

solve it is
3 What is the probability that problem 13 Ca 13.12.13.12.24 468
Sol
ut of 2
will be solved ? 52 CA 52.51.50.49.2.2 20825
(Dec. 2015) i) W
Solution : Let, Illustration 13 : If 5 of 20
tyres in storage are
idefective and5 of Th
A =Probability that x will them are randomly chosen for
solve problem. i inspection, what is the probability that the two of
B = Probability that y will ithe defective tyres
solve problem. will be included ? (Nov. 2019)
P(A) = Solution : The number of ways of choosing 2
4
P(B) = defective tyres among 5 is =
Also both are The number of ways of choosing 3
independent. tyres among 15 is = >Cz
nondefective C
2inkjs
P (A n B) = P(A) " P(B) = The number of ways of
choosing3 tyres in
which two tyres are defective = SC, 15C, = 4550
The probability that problem will be solved
is : Required probability
P (AU B) = P (A) + P(B) P(A n B) 4550 4550
0.2934
3
4
+
2 1 20Cs
Illustration
15504

14 : If3 balls are drawn

randomly
from bowl containing 6 white and 5 black
Ilustration 12 : Four cards are drawn from a iwhat is a
of a s balls,
pack of cards. Find the the probability that one of
diamond(ii) there is probability that (i) all are Iand the other two
the balls is white
one card of each suit (iii) there ? black (Nov. 2019)
are twO spades and two hearts.
(Nov. 2016) Solution : Here, 3 bal'scan be drawm C, ways. trave
Solution : Four cards can be dravwn in One white and 2 black balls can be stude
drawn in
52C, = 270725 ways. 6C, SC, ways. of th
 -Required probability 2
Solution: Given PTrain) = ,,
3
P(Bus) =
6C 6-5 4 3-2 1
1|1092
4
) Probability that a student travels by a train or bus
is, P(Train or Bus) - P(Train) + P(Bus)
IWustration 15 : Auniversity warehouse has 2, 13
received a shipment of 25 printers, of which 10are
laser printers and15 are inkjet models. If 6 of these
25 are selectedat random to be checked by a (ü) Probability that a student not travel by either
particular technician, what is the probability that 13 2
train or bus is =|
(i) exactly 3 of those selected are laser printers ? 15 15
(iü) at least 3 of those selected are laser printers ?! llustration 17 : A bag contains 6 white and 4
(ii) at least3 of those selected are inkjet printers ? red balls. 3 balls are drawn from the bag. Find the
all the
(Nov, 2019) Probability that(i) allthe balls are white(i)
I balls are red.
Solution: The number of selection of 6printers Solution : Let E be the event that all balls are
out of 25 printers = 25C =177100
white.
When exactly 3 laser printers are selected.
n(E) = C3
The number of ways = 10C, 1SC, = (120) (455)|
Required probability
Total outcomes = 10C,
6-5-4
(120) (455) = 0.3083 Required probability = 6C 10-9-8 6
177100

(ii) When at least 3 laser printers are selected. (ii) Let F be the event that all balls are red.
Combination : (3 laser, 3 inkjet), (4 laser, n(F) = "C
2inkjet), (S laser, I inkjet), (6 laser, 0inkjet)
The nun1ber of ways
+10C6 15Co
P(F) = AC3. 4-3-2

10-9-8
1

30
= 19C, 15C;+ l0C, 15C, +1°C, 15C1
54600 + 22050 + 3780 + 210 = 80640 Illustration 18 : A group contains 200 boys
!and 120 girls. Considering it a fair sample from the
80640
Required probability = = 0.4553 !general population, what is the probability that a
177100
Ichild born will () a boy (ii) a girl ?
Illustration 16: It is given that the probability Solution : Total number of children = 200 +
2
120 = 320.
of a student travel by train is 3 and that he wilI;
200 5
P(boy) =
1 320
travel by a bus is Find the probability that a;
120 3
student () travelling by a train or bus (ii) neither P(girl) =
320 8
of these two.
 12

IHustration 19 : A class of computer Illustration 20 : The probability that a (Sem-lteam)

engineering the batch I has 6 boys and 10 girls. For will score 0 goal is 0.40, 1goal is 0.34, 2 goale :
the project it requires 5 students to be selected., 0.26 and 3 or more goals is 0.06, in a Hock Probability
What is the prbability that () there are 2 boys and match. Find out the probability of theteam scoriw
.PO
A
3girls, (ii) boy is not there; (ii) Mr. A is selected. at least one goal.
Solution: Total number of ways of selecting the Solution : P(at least one goal)
Illustr:
events wit
group = l6C
= P(1) + P(2) + P(3 or more) (a) P(An
(i) Number of ways of selection of 2 boys and 3
= 0.34 + 0.20 + 0.06 = 0.60
girls = 6C, 10C, Solut
OR
a) P(A
P(2 boys and 3 girls) = 6C2 P(at least one goal) = 1- P(0)

(ii) Number of ways of selection when

16C5
boy is not
= |
Illustration 21:It is observed that A can hit
0.40 = 0.60
b) P(A
=0.
there = Co . 10Cs = 10Cs i atarget 4 times in 5 shots; B can hit 3 times in 4 )
P(A
ishots; Ctwice in 3 shots. They fire a
Volley. What
P(No boys) = 10Cs
16C5
i is the probability that two shots at least hit ?
Solution : The probability for hitting the target
I are: Ill
(iüi) Number of ways in which Mr. A is selected *om a
= lC, 15C, 4 2 1at th
P(A) = ,P(B) =4', P(C) =
So
P(Mr. A in the group) 15CA For at least two hits, we may have (1) A
hit (ii) A and C hit (iii) Band C hit (iv) A, B
andB
andc
all may hit.
Illustration 19 : A bag contains 25 balls
numbered 1 to 25. One ball is drawn at random, i Required probability= P(AnB) +P(An)
Find the probability that the number of drawn ball i + P(B n C) + P(A n B n C)
is multiple of 4 or 7.
=
4 3 4 2 3 2 4 3 2
Solution: Total balls = 25 3 4 5 3 4 3 Ts 4 3
P(drawn ball is multiple of 4) 12 + 8 +6+ 24 S0 5
6 345 3·4 5 6
= P(4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24) =
25
Illustration 22 : Show that A and B are
le
and P(7, 14, 21) = 3 independent events if P(A) = 0.25, P(B) =0.40 and 5.
25 P(A UB) = 0.55. (Oct. 2020)
Events are mutually exclusive Solution : We have
P(A) = 0.25, P(B) = 0.40, P(A U B) = 0.55
6 + 3
P(multiples of 4or 7) = 9
P(A UB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B)
25 25 25
P(A n B) = 0.25 + 0.40 - 0.55 = 0.1
and P(/\) P(B) = (0.25) (0.40) =0.1
 Probability 13
. P(A B) = P(A) : P(B)
P(A)= 0.7 P(A) = 1 0.7 = 0.3
A and Bare independent events.
P(B) = 0.5 ’ P(B) I 0.5 = 0.5
Illustration 23 : If A and B are independent i
events with P(A) = 0.26 and P(B) = 0.45, find i and P(A UB) = 0.6
(a) P(A n B), (b) P(An B), (c) P(A nB) The probability that he will selected in one
of the firms is :
(March 2021)
Solution : Since A and B are independent events, P(A U B) =P(A) + P(B) -P(A nB)
(a) P(AnB)=P(A) P(B) = (0.26) (0.45) = 0.117 But P(An B) = P(A UB)

(b) P(A n B) = P(A) - P(A n B) =| - P(A U B) = 1- 0.6 = 0.4

= 0.26 - 0.117 = 0.143 P(A UB) =0.7 + 0.5 - 0.4 = 0.8
(c) P( n B) = P(A U B) = |- P(A U B) 1.6 COMPOUND EVENTS :
When two or more events 0ccur in connection
=|- [P(A) + P(B) P(A n B)] with each other, their simultaneous occurence is called
= |- [0.26 + 0.45 -0.117] =0.407 a compound event.
Illustration 24 : A card is drawn at random Events A and B are said to be dependent if B
rom a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability i can occur only if it is known that A has occured or
that the card is a spade or a king ? (Feb. 2022) vice versa.
Solution : Let A : Drawn card is a spade The multiplication law is not applicable when
B:Drawn card is aking Ievents are not independent. Let A and B be any two
Then the probability of happening of the event
AnB= fone card of king which is a !events.
spade}
iA,knowing that the event B has already happened, is
called the conditional probability of the event A. It
13 4 is denoted by'P(A/B). It is read as probability of A
P(A) = 52 P(B) =
52
P(A nB) = 52
given B.
Similarly P(B/A) denotes the conditional
Required probability is :
!proability of happening of event B on the condition
4 that the event A has already happened.
P(A UB)= P(A) t P(B) P(An B) = 52
Thus, Probability of A given B has occured is
Illustration 25 : An MBA applies for a job in i g1ven by,
wo firms X and Y. The probability of his being P(A n B)
elected in firm X is 0.7 and being rejected in Y is P(A/B) = P(B)
or

5. The probability of at least one of his applications i

eing rejected is 0.6. What is the probability that i P(A nB) = P(B) P(AB)
ewill be selected in one of the firms ?
P(A O B)
(Sept. 2021) Similarly, P(B/A) = or
P(A)
Solution : Let A and B be the events that he is
lected in firms X and Y respectively. P(A n B) = P(A) P(B/A)
 Note :
1. In case of more than two events
The probability that equipment
=(A U BU C)
Sem
Probability
P(A n BO C) = P(A) P(B/A) P(C/A O B) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A OB)
2. If A and Bare independent then P(A/B) = P(A)
and P(B/A) = P(B).
- P(B C) + P(A n BO C)
=P(A) + P(B) + P(C)-P(A) P(B) P(A)
P(Ang (ii)
P(W

When the
Illustration 1 :Find the probability of drawing - P(B) P(C) + P(A) P(B) P(C) = 0.2733 The event
a king, queen in this order from a pack of 52 Illustration 3 : An equipment consists of tW
cards
n two consecutive draws and the cards are not parts Aand B. Inthe process of manufacturing P(W
replaced. part A,9 out of 100 are likely to be defective ana
Solution : The probability that of B5 out of 100 are likely to be defective. Find
of drawing a king is the
4
probability that the assembled article will not
P(A) = be defective. P(R
52
Solution : Probability of part A to be defective
After this draw, the card is not replaced. is P(A) = 0.09
Thus the probability of drawing a queen is P(
P(A) = | - 0.09 = 0.91
4 Probability of part B to be defective is
P(B/A) = Mlustra
S1
P(B) = 0.05 P(B) = 0.7
Illustration 2 : An eguipment will function I Solutic
P(B) = | - 0.05 = 0.95
only if three components A, B and C are all i
working. The probability of A's failure during one .:. Probability that the equipment is not defecti P
year is 5 % that of B's failure is 15 % and that of
P(A)PB) IlMust
C's failure is 10 %. What is the probability that the i
equipment will fail before the end of that year ? = (0.91) (0.95) = 0.8645 mean ser

Illustration 4 : A bag contains5 white

Let P(A) =
Solution:The equipment will fail if Aor B or andchata slim
Cor any combination of these three will fail. red balls. Two drawings of three balls are mlwhatie t
The proability of equipment will fail during such that (i) balls are replaced before the seconirandomly
draw. (i) balls are not replaced before the seconja nd too s
the year draw. Find the chance that the first draw will in
=1-probability that the equipment willfunction three white and second three red balls in each ez. Solu
hroughout the year. Solution :
P = 1 - 0.05 =0.95, P(B) =1-0.15 i() When the balls are replaced
0.85, PC) = 1-0.10 =0.90. Total ways of drawing 3 balls = 13c Illu
The probability that equipment does not fail The ways of drawing 3 white balls =
equipme
0.95 x 0.85 x 0.90 = 0.7267 1
Care
The probability that equipment will fail=1 The ways of drawing 3 red balls = c
that the
.7267 = 0.2733
OR P(W) = P(R) =
13c,
 15
Probability
Solution: Here P(A) = P(B) - P(C) -
P(W n R) = 5C
13c 13c, The events are independent.
(ii) When the balls are not-replaced The probability that an equipment get
The events are dependent repaired
= P(AUBUC) = P(A) +P(B) + P(C)
P(W) = P(A n B) P(BnC)-P(A n C)
13c, + P(A + Bo C)

-++I.1 .1
2 4 2 3 4
P(R/W) = 2 3 4 2
10c,
18_ 3
24 4
P(WOR) = P(W) P(R/W) =
13c, 10c, OR

Illustration 5: Compute P(A/B), if P(A)=0.6, ! Probability that A can not repair

P(B) = 0.7 and P(A nB) = 0.3. (May 2017)!
Solution : We have =
P( = 1 l!
2 2

P(A nB) 0.3 3

P(AB) = P(B) 0.7
Similarly P() -1-P ) =]-2
4 4

Illustration 6 : In producing screws, let A Probability that A, B andCcannot repair

small".
mean screw too slimn" and B screw too
Let P(A)= 0.1 and let the conditional probability 1 2 3 1
that a slim screw is also too small be P(B/A) =
0.2. ! =P(A n BnC)=2 3 4
What is the probability that the screw that we pick Probability that it can be repaired
randomly from a lot produced will be both too slim
and too short ? (May 2017)
3
=1--=
P(An B) 4 4
Solution : We have P(B/A) =
P(A) Illustration 8 : Let A and B are two events
.:. Required probability P(A ^ B) isuch that P(A) =0.4, P(B) = 0.8 and P(B/A) =0.6.
Find P(A U B) and P(AB).
= P(A) P(B/A) = (0.1) (0.2) = 0.02
Solution : We have
Ilustration 7 : The probability that an
equipment can be repaired by the persons A, Bandi P(A n B)
P(B/A) =
1 11 P(A)
Care 2'3'4 respectively. What is the probability
’ P(AO B) = (0.6) (0.4) = 0.24
that the equipment will be repaired ?
 Statistics Forr B.E. (Sem-
Probability and
brand
that a consumer preferred Probability
(d) Given probability that he was
16
P(B) - P(A n B) what is the from D

P(A UB) = P(A)+ Mumbai?

(Oct. 2020)
0.24 = 0.96
= 0.4 + 0.8- Also
Solution:
0.24 which 210 But
P(A n B)
Also P(A/B) = P(B)
= 0.3
There are total 390 people among
0.8 (a) response "yes".
people are with
contains 5white, 7 red at random
Illustration 9: A bag one by The probability that a consumer business
four balls are drawn
and 8black balls. If 210 7 educaito
without replacement, what is the probability brand A = 390 13
one prefers
that all are white ? P(
events of! consumers' opinion is "yes"
Solution : Let A, B, C, D be the fourth (b) From Chennai 60 210.
first, second, third and with opinion "yes" is
and total people
drawing white ball in 1.7 B
draw respectively. 60 2 To
5 4 .:. Probability 210 xamp
P(A) = P(B/A) =
20 19 rOduc
preferred brand A, and event is 0
(c) Let event A :
3 2 i Chennai.
B: He was from
P(C/A B) = P(D/A nBA C) =
17 I
hroug
18 P(A O B) .9. I=
Probability = P(A/B) Juesti
P(A nBOCn D) = P(A) P(B/A) P(B)
lefec
P(C/A B) · P(D/A OBoC) we ha
60
5 4 3 2 Diece
100
20 19 18 17 969
and event B:
(d) Let event A: preferred brand A,
Illustration 10 : A market survey was I He was from Mumabi.
conducted in four cities to find out the preference I
for brand A soap. The responses are shown below :i P(AnB)
Probability = P(B/A) =
DelhilKolkata Chen nail Mumbail Total P(B)
Response whi
Yes 45 55 60 50 210 the
50
No 35 45 35 45 160
210 21
No Opinion 5 5 20
Illustration 11 : A study showed that 65% of ex
Total 85 105 100 100 390
managers had some business education and 50% A
(a) What is the probability that a consumer at had some engineering education. Furthermore 20% B.
random prefers brand A ? the managers had some business education but no ar
(b) What is the probability that a consumer engineering education. What is the probability
prefers brand A and from Chennai ? thata manager had some business education, given
(c) What is the probability that a consumer ! that he has some engineering education ?
preferred brand A, given that he was from I (Sept. 2021)
Chennai ?
(Oct. 2020) Solution : Let A and B be the events tha
managers had some business and engineering education
respectively.
 P(B) P(A/BË) the rule
Here P(A) = rule of elimination or
the
Probability P(A/B) is called
P(B) = 0.5. of total probability.
P(A) = 0.65, A, B and C
Three machines total number
B) = 0.2 Illustration 1:
Also P(A n and 20 % of the %,
P(A nB) produce 50 %,30
o defective item is 3
B) =P(A) - production of
P(A n The machine. If an item
But 0.20.45
= Iof items. respectively on each defective,
’ P(A n B) =
0.65
some 4 %,5 % and is found to be
manager had at random produced by
The probability that a
some engineering selected the item was
probability that
education,given that he has find the
business machine A. defective
educaiton is :
D be theevent of getting
0.45 Solution : Let
P(A n B)
0.5 10 = 0.2
P(A/B) = = 0.3, P(C)
item.
P(B) P(B)
P(A) = 0.5,
= 0.04,
P(D/A)=0.03, P(D/B)
THEOREM :
1.7 BAYES' we consider an
understand Bayes' theorem manufacturing a P(D/C)= 0.05
To of
probability probability that the
example. Suppose a of by machine ! therem the
is 0.7 and that Using Bayes' piece came from
machine
product by machine 1 of getting defective piece ! selected defective
probability
2 is 0.8. The by machine 2 is
machine 1 is 0.5 and that of the Ais:
through selected at random then
product is P(A)P(D/A)
0.9. If one probability of the selected i
find the
question arise is tomanufactured by machine 1. Here i P(A/D)= P(A) P(D/A) + P(B) P(D/B)
defective piece is of getting
defectivei + P(C) P(D/C)
A as the event
we have to suppose information.
the following
piece. Then we have (0.5) (0.03)
0.8, P(AM) = 0.5, (0.04) + (0.2) (0.05)
P(M)= 0.7, P(M)= (0.5) (0.03) + (0.3)
P(AM,) = 0.9
P(M/A). = 0.405
The question is to find B, B, and B4
case of inverse
probability Illustration 2 : Four boxes BË coins. The
That means it is a of Bayes and copper
with the help contains some gold
which is to be determined boxes are 20, 30, 10
percentage of coins in these coins in
theorem.
2022) and 40 respectively. The fractions of gold
Statement of Bayes' Theorem :
(Feb.
are 0.3, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.5 resþectively.
boxes
B,, be mutually exclusive and the is taken out at random, what is the
Let Bj B ... If a coin
of the sample space S. Let the event!) it is a gold coin ? (ii) If a coin
taken
exhaustive events probability that
occur in conjunction with only one of the events B,,! random is found to be golden, what is the
A
P(B), P(B,), ... P(B.) out at B, ?
B, ., B Ifthe probabilities
then probability that it is taken from box
and P(A/B), P(A/B,), P(A/B,) are known gold
Solution : Let Abe the event of getting a
P(B)) P(A/B,) coin.
P(B,/A) = P(B,)P(A/B,) + P(B,) P(A/B,) P(B) =0.2, P(B,) = 0.3, P(B) =0.1, P(B4) = 0.4
+ ...+ P(B,)P(A/B,) P(A/B) =0.3, P(A/B) =0.1,
Where j= 1, 2, ..., n. P(A/B,) = 0.2, P(A/B)) = 0.S
Probability and Statistics For B.E. (Sem-3) / 3/ 2022
 Probability and Statistics For B.E.
18
(Sem-in
0.2) Probablity
4
(i) PA) = P(B,) P(A/B) =0.34 standard qus
(0.1) (0.2)
0)+0.2) +03) and is found
chance that
= (0.2) (0.3) +(0.3) (0.1) +
+ (0.4) (0.5) = 0.31 Probability that it came from Ist bag is :
Soluti
P(B,) P(AB,) P(B,) P(A/B) quality mac"
(i) PB,/A) = P(A) P(B,/A) = P(B,) P(A/B) + PB,) P(A/B,) machines a
+ P(B,) P(A/B) P(
(0.3) (0.1) = 0.097
0.31
Als
Us
mustration 3 : Three bags contains 10%, i
20% and 30 % defective items. An item is selected
(0.1) = 0.17 selected
at random which is defective. Determine the)
probability that it came from 3rd bag, 2nd bag, 1st
02)+0.) P(E
bag. (May 2017) Illustration 4: It came to know that the marks
Solution : Let A be the event of selecting given by a certain examiner is correct in 90 % of
defective item. Here the probability of selection of the i the cases. Suppose that 40 % of the answer books
bags is Iare given to the examiner which can be given ful)
imarks in actual. What is the probability of the
actual answer book given to the examiner have factor
P(B) = 3 P(B,) = P(B4) = 3 been corrected actual with full marks ?
25%,
P(AB)= 0.1, P(A/B,) =0.2, Solution : Let A =The answer books which respec
Ican be given full marks in actual respe
P(A/B,)= 0.3 at ran
Probability that it came from 3rd bag is : ! B= Examiner has corrected actual with fuil proba
imarks. A, B
P(B,) P(A/B,) P(A) = 0.4, P(A) =0.6, P(B/A) = 09,
P(B,/A) =

P(B) P(A/B,) + P(B,) P(AB,) bolt.

+ P(B;) P(AB,) i P(B/A) = 0.1

P(A/B)
P(A)P(B/A)
3
(0.3) P(A) P(B/A) + P(A) P(B/
1
3 (0.1) +(0.2) + 3 (0.3) (0.4) (0.9) = 0.857 was
(0.4) (0.9) + (0.6) (0.1)
= 0.5

Probability that it came from 2nd bag is: Illustration 5 : A Company has two plants to
manufacture hydraulic machines. Plant I
manufactures 70% of the hydraulic machines and
P(B,/A) P(B) P(B,) P(A/B,) plant II manufactures 30. At plant I, 80% 0
P(A/B) + P(B,) P(A/B,)
P(B) P(A/B,) hydraulic machines are rated standard quality and
at plant II, 90% of hydraulic machines are rate
 19

Probablity = (0.25) (0.05) + (0.35) (0.04)

machine is picked up at random
standard quality. A 0.0345
quality. What is the + (0.4) (0.02) =
and isfound to be of standard
chance that it has come from plant I ? (0.25) (0.05) = 0.3623
(May, 2015, Nov. 2017) P(A/D) = 0.0345
standard
Solution: Let A be the event of getting P (B) P(D/B) (0.35) (0.04)
events of manufacturing
quality machine. B,, B, are the P (B/D) -
P(D) 0.0345
machines at plant I & II respectively.
P(B) = 0.70, P(B,) = 0.30 = 0.40S8

Also P(AB,) = 0.8, P(A/B,) = 0.9 P(C) P(D/C) (0.4) (0.02)

that the
Using Baycs' theorem, the probability P(C/D) P(D) 0.0345
is :
selected machine has come from plant I
= 0.23 19
P(B,) P(AB)
P(B,/A) P(B)P (AB) +P(B) P(AB,) Illustration 7 : In acertain assembly plant,
30%, 45%
three machines, BË, B, and B make
products. It is known
iand 25%, respectively, of the
(0.70) (0.8) 2%, 3% and 2% of the
(0.7) (0.8) + (0.3) (0.9)
=0.6747 Ifrom past experience that
respectivley, are
i products made by each machine, product is
finished
bolti defective. Now, suppose that a
lustration 6 : State Bayes' theorem. In a is
manufacture randomly selected, what is probability that it
factory, three machines A, B and C
defective ?
25%, 35% and 40% of the total product i
respectively. Of these outputs 5%, 4% and 2% Solution:Let A be the event of getting defective
respectively, are defective bolts. A bolt is picked up product.
the
at random and found to be defective. What are P(B) = 0.3, P(B,) =0.45, P(B) =0.25
probabilities that it was manufactured by machines
A, Band C? (Dec. 2015) Also P(A/B) = 0.02, P(A/B,)= 0.03,
Solution:Let D be the event of getting defective P(A/B) = 0.02
bolt. 3

P(A) =0.25, P(B)= 0.35, P(C) = 0.40 :. P(A) = )P(B;)P(AB;)

i=l
P (D/A) = 0.05, P(D/B) = 0.04,
= (0.3) (0.02) + (0.45) (0.03)
P(D/C) = 0.02
+ (0.25) (0.02) = 0.0245
Using Bayes°theorem the probability that it
Illustration 8 : State Bayes theorem. A
was manufactured by machines A, B, C is :
microchip company has two machines that produce
P(A) P(DIA) the chips. Machine I produces 65% of the chips,
P (AD) but 5% of its chips are defective. Machine II
P(A) P(D/A)+ P (B) P(D/B)
+ P(C) P(D/C) produces 35% of the chips and 15% of its chips are
idefective. A chip is selected at random and found
Here P(D) = P(A)P(D/A) + P(B) P (DIB) ito be defective. What is the probability that it came
ifrom Machine I? (Nov. 2016, Nov. 2019)
+ P(C) P (D/C)
 Probability and
Statistics For B.E.
(Sem
5 3
of getting defective Probability
20
P(W/B) =
Solution : Let A be the event chips at; P(WIA) 10C, 10 10 Solution : Le
events of production of
chip. B,, B, are the serson is a bike
Machine I and II respectively. espectively.
0.05, P(B,) = 0.35, 4
P(B) = 0.65, P(A/B,) = P(WIC) 10 Let D be the
P(A/B,)= 0.15 P(W/B)
probability that the P(W) = P(A) P(W/A) + P(B) P(A) =
Using Bayes' theorem, the
Machine Iis : + P(C) P(W/C)
selected chip has come from
4 118 59 P(C)
P(B}) P(A/B|) 15 1 3. 10
P(B,/A) = P(B,) P(A/B) + P(B,) P(A/B,) 26 10
+
26 10 26 10 260 130 P(D/.
males and The
(0.65) (0.05) Illustration 10: In a certain town
= 0.3824 i population. It is known
(0.65) (0.05) + (0.35) (0. 15) females from 50percent of
and 5 percent of the P(AD)
that 20 percent of the males unemployed person is
Illustration 9: An urn contains 10 females are unemployed. An
white and !
olooted at random. What is the probability nat
3 black balls, while another urn contains 3wvhite
and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn from thè his nerson is (i) male (ii) female ?
first urn and put into the second urn and then a that a person i
Solution : Let M be the event
ballis drawn from the latter. What is the probability i unemployable.
that it is a white balI ? (Nov. 2016) Illustra
a person is male
Let A and B be the events that reraft th=
Solution : Two balls drawn from the first urn and female respectively.
black. C= onewhite Duntry ar
gives : A = both white, B = both P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.5, 1at are
and one black.
P(M/A) = 20% of male = 0.1 cator,
iscovere
10 Cz 10.9 15
P(M/B) = 5% of famel = 0.025 ght aire
P(A) = 13Co 13.12 26
male
(i) Probability that the selected person is a () If
robabil
P(A) P(M/A)
=P(A/M) =08oes not
P(B) = P(A) P(M/A) + P(B) P(M/B)
13C2 26 robabi
(iü) Probability that the selected person is a female Sol
iScOve
P(C) = 10C13C
. 'C 10 P(B) P(M/B) =0) 1e eve
26 = P(B/M) = P(A) P(M/A) + P(B) P(M/B)
Now substitution of these two balls in second
Illustration 11: An insurance companyinsured
urn will contain.
2000 bike drivers, 4000car drivers and 6000 truck
(i) 5white and 5 black balls (i) 3 white and 7 drivers. The probability of an accident invoving
black balls (ii) 4 white and6 black balls. bike driver, car driver and a truck driver is 0.10,
Let W= event of drawing white balls from the 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insure
second urn. persons meets with an accident. What is the
probability that it is a bike driver ?(March 2031)
 21

aircraft has an
Probability
that insured; The probability that an is :
events discovered
Solution : Let A, B, C be the dirver emergency locator and will not be
driver, truck
person is a bike driver, car
P(D') P(E/D')
respectively. P(D'/E) =
accident. P(E)
Let D be the event that a driver meets an
4000 1
P(A)=
2000 , P(B) = 12000 3
(0.3) (0.1) = 0.06667
12000 6 0.45
emergency locator
P(C) =
6000 (i) The probability of not having
12000 and is discovered is :
= 0.15 i
P(D/A) =0.1,P(D/B) =0.03, P(D/C) P(D) P(E/D)
P(D/E')
The required probability is: P(E)
P(A)P(D/A)
P(AD) = P(D) {1- P(E/D)}
P(A)P(D/A) + P(B) P(D/B) + P(C) P(D/C) 1- P(E)

(0.1) 1
= 0.1639 (0.7) (1 0.6)
|-0.45
=0.5090

01) +0.03) +0.15) theorem. There

Illustration 13 : State Baye's
and
Illustration 12 : Seventy percent of the lighti are three bags; first containing 1 white, 2 red
flight in a certain green
aircraft that disappear while in 2 white, 3 red and 1
discovered. Of the aircraft 3green balls; second green balls.
country aresubsequently emergen cy balls and third 3 white, 1 red and 2
have an random.
that are discovered, 60% not ! Two balls are drawn from a bag chosen at
aircraft are and 1 red. Findthe
locator, whereas 90% of the These are found to be 1 white
discovered do not have súch a locator. Suppose I probability that the balls so drawn came from the
a

light aircraft has disappeared. (Feb. 2022)

Isecond bag.
locator, what is the i
() If it has an emergency
it i Solution:The probability of choosing a bag is :
discovered ? (ii) If
probability that it will not be
what is the i
does not have an emergen cy locator, =
(July 2022) P(B) = P(B,) = P(B)
probability that it will be discovered ?
andlred
Solution: Let D be the event that the
aircraft is Let A be the event of selecting 1white
be! balls
discovered and D' is that of not discovered. Let E
locator.
the event that the aircraft has an emergency
PD) = 0.7, P(D') = | - 0.7 = 0.3 P(A/B,) = 2C 2
15
P(E/D) = 0.6, P(ED') = 0.9
’ P(E/D') = | -0.9 = 0.1 2C 'C 6 2
P(A/B,) =
(i) Total probability of having an emergency locator i 15
is :

P(E) = P(D) P(E/D) + P(D') P(E/D') C:'C3_1

= (0.7) (0.6) + (0.3) (0.1) = 0.45 P(A/B,)= 15 5
 Statistics For B.E.
Probability and
the probability
(Sem-l
that
By Baye's theorem,first plant is : ?robability
22
theorem, the probability
defective pipe came from the
By using Baye's bag is : P(A) · P(E/A)
the second
that it came from
P(AIE) P(A)-P(EIA)+ P(B)·P(E/B) +P(C)·P(EO Find:
P(B,) · P(AB;)
P(B,/A) = P(B) P(A/B,) + P(B,) P(A/B,)
+ P(B) P(A/B})
co.04) Wha

00)+008)+0.10)
1 a ba

B-9E)-69) 0.05
0.61 61
Ace
are

defective pipe fror

Similarly, the probability that the at r
2
2 15 6 from second plant is :
()
2 5 11 11 P(B) P(E/B)
15 5 5 P(B/E) P(A)·P(E/A)+ P(B)-P(E/B)+ P(C)· P(E/C) (ii)

Illustration 14 : A mnanufacturing firm i (ii

produces steel pipes in three plants with dailyi (0.08)
production volume of 500, 1000, 2000 units 4
respectively. According to past experience it is ro.o5) +005) +
known that the fractions of defective output A
produced the three plants are respectively 0.05, 0.16 16
total!
0.08 and 0.10. If apipe is selected from a day's 0.61 61
!
production and found to be defective. What is the
probability that it came from the first plant ? Also ! iand, the probability that the defective pipe from thit
defectivepipe comes.
find out from which plant the plant is:
(Sept. 2021) i
P(C)· P(E/C)
Solution : Let A, B, C be the events of producing P(C/E) = P(A)·P(EIA)+ P(B)· P(E/B) +P(C)·P(EQ
steel pipes in three plants respectively, and let E be
the event of getting a defective output.
S00 1 1000 2
P(A) = P(B) = 3500 7
3500 7
005)+0.08) +o.0)
2000 4
P(C) = 3500
0.4 40
Also P(EIA) = 0.05, P(E/B) = 0.08, 0.61 61
P(E/C) = 0.10 The defective pipe comes most likely fro
the third plant as its probability is highest.