Course Code: Math4E

Course Title: Engineering Data Analysis

LEARNING MATERIAL 2

CHAPTER 5
Probability
TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Module Overview
2. Learning Outcomes
3. Concepts/Module Map
4. Introduction
5. Lesson 1 – Fundamental Counting Principle
6. Self-Assessment Questions
7. Lesson 2 – Permutation
8. Self-Assessment Questions
9. Lesson 3 – Combination
10. Self-Assessment Questions
11. Lesson 4 – Types of Probability
12. Self-Assessment Questions
13. Lesson 5 – Probability Distribution
14. Self-Assessment Questions
15. Activities
16. Answers
17. References
 Learning Material 2
Engineering Data Analysis

MODULE OVERVIEW

The first part of this learning material taught you the fundamental concepts of statistics – a vital core of
engineering data analysis. Now, we move on to a more complex part of the course, Probability.

As you learned in other subjects such as engineering economics, every decision you make has effects
or consequences. Such effects or consequences are called outcomes. The chances of the outcomes
occurring or projecting into reality is called probability.

Everything that is inside our minds is possible to happen. If you dream to be an engineer, you can if
you do the right things that leads to your dream. Every actions you take paves the ways on the events
to your future. However, an event that is what we most desire does not happen exactly as we plan it,
for we always know that there are some factors affecting our desired outcomes.

Therefore, your course of action only increases the probability that your desired outcome is most likely
to occur. Take also into consideration that making a move oppositely directed to what you want to
happen decreases the probability that it is most likely to happen.

Hence, learning probability helps you to understand more on how this happen. In connection with
probability, we can also analyze current phenomena – this is where the probability distribution or normal
distribution enters the discussion. In a scientific manner, we construct hypothesis to investigate such
current phenomena and lastly, an application of these knowledge brings us to the Chi-Square Test.

This chapter teaches the student the definition of Probability and all the key concepts that must be
understood by the student to be able to understand the succeeding topics.

This learning material is composed of 5 Lessons:

1. Fundamental Counting Principle
2. Permutation
3. Combination
4. Types of Probability
a. Classical Probability
b. Probability of Two or More Events
c. Conditional Probability
5. Probability Distribution

Learning Outcomes

After completing this learning material, you shall be able to:

1. Apply the fundamental principles of counting to determine the number of possible outcomes.
2. Differentiate permutation from combination.
3. Apply the formula of permutation and combination in determining the number of arrangements.
4. Examine the number of the different kinds of probabilities and apply the formula for each kind.
5. Exemplify the significance of probability distributions in statistics.
 Module Map

Probability

Fundamental
Types of Probability
Counting Permutation Combination
Probability Distribution
Principle

Classical
Probability

Probability of
Two or More
Events

Conditional
Probability

Introduction

In the previous chapters, we learned various ways of describing certain types of statistical data in terms
of central tendency and variability. It this chapter, counting techniques are introduced that will help you
understand statistical data with deeper appreciation. The objective is to provide you a better
understanding of the fundamental concept of inferential statistics: The Theory of Probability.
It is often said that a possibility is necessarily a probability. This means that an event may be possible
but not be probable. For example, it might be possible for a famous politician to win in a national election
but if he is not a candidate, this is not probable. Indeed, it is very essential that we know what are
possible before we can even think of what are probable.
CHAPTER 5
Probability
 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Lesson 1
Fundamental Counting Principle
Self-Assessment Questions

1. What is the fundamental counting principle?

2. What is the purpose of tree diagram?

The Fundamental Counting Principle

Before we begin with probability, let us first talk about the so-called counting techniques so we can
establish its definition.

There are many ways in which a statistical investigator would need a use of some counting technique
in order to arrive at a number of possibilities or a number of choices existing under certain conditions.
Here are some examples:

 A high school senior who recently won a scholarship from a large manufacturing firm computes
for the total number of ways in which he can choose a course a course and a school for his
studies. The manufacturing firm gave him four technological courses and five schools to choose
from.
 A market researcher classifies a group of 200 respondents into three according to their highest
educational attainment, into four according to their occupation, and into two according to their
place of work. He wants to determine the number of classifications possible.
 An office secretary tries to devise a coding scheme for certain records, using the digits 1 to 4.
She wants to find the total number of codes of different digits if only three or four digits are
used.
 A car dealer is interested in knowing how many choices a prospective buyer has, given five
different models and six colors.
 The employee in charge of five display windows of a department store has 10 designs, each
design appropriate for a single window. She wishes to determine the total number of
arrangements possible for the 10 designs.

Let us consider the problem of the office secretary. Given the digits 1, 2, 3, and 4, how many codes or
numbers consisting of three different digits can be formed?

Suppose we form these numbers from left to right, that is, from the hundreds digit to the units digit. We
know the choices for the hundreds digit are 1, 2, 3, and 4. If we use 1 for the hundreds digit, the tens
digit will have to be one of the remaining 3 (2, 3, and 4), since the situation requires that no digit must
be repeated. If we take 2 for the tens digit, then the units digit will have to be other 3 or 4.

On the other hand, if the tens digit is 3, the units digit will have to be either 2 or 4; and if the tens digit
is 4, the units digit must be either 2 or 3. Hence, there are six different three-digit numbers starting with
1: 123, 124, 132, 134, 142, and 143.

Using a similar argument, we find that eighteen other numbers exist under the given conditions, six of
which start with 2, another six start with 3, and the remaining six start with 4. There are, in all, twenty-
four three-digit numbers following the given restrictions. We illustrate this situation more concretely
using a tree diagram.

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Tree Diagram

This graphical method lays out the possible codes for the given situation in our example.

Units Digit
Tens Digit
3
2
4
Hundreds Digit

2
1 3
4

2
4
3

3
1
4

1
2 3
4

1
4
3

2
1
4

1
3 2
4

1
4
2

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

2
1
3

1
4 2
3

1
3
2

Another example, how many ways can a president and a secretary be chosen from 3 candidates for
president and 5 for secretary?

Solution

Let P1, P2, and P3 be candidates for president; S1, S2, S3, S4, and S5 be candidates for secretary

We have

S1
S2
P1 S3
S4
S5
S1
S2
P2 S3
S4
S5
S1
S2
P3 S3
S4
S5

In the examples presented, we find that multiplication seems a logical operation. For the first example,
we can multiply together the numbers of choices for the hundreds digit, the number of choices for the
tens digit, and the number of choices for the units digit; that is, (4)(3)(2) = 24.

For the second example, we have three choices for president and five choices for secretary, that is,
3(5) = 15.

This observation leads us to the following generalization:

For a group of k things, if the first is done independently in n 1 different ways, the second can be done
independently in n2 different ways, the third can be done independently in n 3 different ways, and so on
until the kth thing, then the total number of ways in which the k things can be done in the stated order
is

𝑛1 ∙ 𝑛2 ∙ 𝑛3 … 𝑛𝑘

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Accordingly, going back to the examples mentioned in the previous pages, the high school senior has
(4)(5) = 20 different ways of choosing a course and a school; the department store employee can make
a total of (10)(9)(8)(7)(6) or 30,240 different arrangements for the five display windows; and a
prospective customer of the car dealer has a total of (5)(6) = 30 different choices of color and model.

Example 5.1

In how many ways can three coins fall? Two dice?

Solution

A coin can fall in two ways; therefore three coins can fall in (2)(2)(2) or 8 ways. They are:

HHH TTH HHT THT

THH HTT THH TTT

Similarly, a die can fall in six ways; therefore two dice can fall in (6)(6) or 36 ways.

I/II 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6

Example 5.2

Given digits 0, 2, 5, 6, and 9.

a. In how many 3-digit numbers can be formed from these digits if no two digits are to be the
same?
b. Of the numbers formed in (a), how many are even? How many are odd? How many are greater
than 600?
c. How many numbers can be formed if a digit may be repeated?

Solution

a. There are 4 choices for the hundreds digit (excluding zero), four choices for the tens digit
(including zero), and only 3 choices for the units digit. By the Fundamental Principle of
Counting, the total number of three digit numbers under the given condition is

(4)(4)(3) = 48

b. In this situation, a number is even if it ends in 0, 2, or 6. The number of three digit numbers
ending in either 2 or 6 is

(3)(3)(2) = 18

And the number of three digit numbers ending in 0 is

(4)(3)(1) = 12

Hence, there are 18+12 = 30 even numbers.

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

A number is odd if it ends in 5 or 9. There are

(3)(3)(2) = 18

A number is greater than 600 if the hundreds digit is 6 or 9. Thus,

(2)(4)(3) = 24

Of the numbers are greater than 600.

c. If repetition is allowed, there would be

(4)(5)(5) = 100

Three digit numbers.

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Lesson 2
Permutation
Self-Assessment Questions

1. What are the types of permutation?

2. Is permutation concerned with a specific sequence of arrangement? Why or why not?

Permutation

A permutation is an arrangement of n different objects. The words rat, tar, and art are three different
permutations of a, r, and t. The three other permutations for these letters are rta, tra, and atr. There are
two different permutations for two different objects, six for three different objects and twenty-four for
four different objects. In general, the number of permutations for n different objects, denoted by nPn is

𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (3)(2)(1) 𝑜𝑟 𝑛! (𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑎𝑠 n factorial)

The symbol n! is used to designate the product of all the integers from 1 to n. Thus, 1! = 1, 2! = (2)(1) =
2, 3! = (3)(2)(1) = 6, 4! = (4)(3)(2)(1) = 24, etc. By definition, 0! = 1.

Suppose we have a set of n different objects. The number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time
(r<n) is denoted by nPr and is computed by the formula

𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1) (5.1)

Applying this formula to situations described in Lesson 1, we obtain

4𝑃3 = (4)(3)(2) = 24

10𝑃5 = (10)(9)(8)(7)(6) = 30,240

(𝑛−𝑟)!
Multiplying the right-hand side of 5.1 by (𝑛−𝑟)!, we have

𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1)(𝑛 − 𝑟)!

𝑛𝑃𝑟 = ,
(𝑛 − 𝑟 )!

Since by definition, (n-r)! is equal to (n-r)(n-r-1)(n-r-2)…(2)(1), we reduce the above formula to

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = (5.2)
(𝑛 − 𝑟 ) !

Although formula 5.1 is, in practice, more convenient, formula 5.2 is simpler in form and is easier to
remember. When r=n, formula 5.2 becomes

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑛 =
0!

But since 0! = 1,

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

𝑛𝑃𝑛 = 𝑛!

Example 5.3

In how many ways can 4 boys and 3 girls be seated in a row of 5 chairs?

Solution

7! 7! (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
7𝑃5 = = = = (7)(6)(5)(4)(3) = 2,520 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
(7 − 2)! 2! (2)(1)

Example 5.4

In how many ways can three of ten students participating in an interschool contest be ranked first,
second, and third?

Solution

10! 10! (10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)

10𝑃3 = = = = (10)(9)(8) = 720 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
(10 − 3)! 7! (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)

Permutations with alike objects

Example 5.5

List all the different permutations for the digits of the number 5,696. How many permutations would
have been possible if the four digits were different?

Solution

a. Twelve different permutations can be formed form the digits of the number 5,696.

They are:

5,966 6,659 6,569

9,566 6,695 6,965
5,669 5,696 6,596
9,665 9,656 6,956

b. Had the four digits been different, there would have been

4𝑃4 = 4! = 24

Different permutations.

In example 5.5, we found out that the number of distinct permutation of four objects, two of which are
24 4!
alike, is 2 𝑜𝑟 2! = 12. We can easily verify that for n objects, k of which are alike, the number of distinct
𝑛!
permutations is 𝑘!.

If among n objects, n1 and n2 are identical, still n3 and others are identical, and so on, then the number
of distinct permutations of the objects taken all together is

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

𝑛!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! …

Example 5.6

How many distinct permutations can be formed from the letters of the word STATISTICS?

Solution

The letter S and T, each appears 3 times, I appears twice, A once, and C once. The number of
permutations is

10! (10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) (10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)

𝑃= = = = 50,400
3! 3! 2! (3)(2)(1)(3)(2)(1)(2)(1) (3)(2)(1)(2)(1)

Circular Permutation

Permutations obtained by arranging objects in a circle called circular permutations. While there are
twenty-four linear permutations for four objects, there are only six distinct circular permutations, each
of which is identical to three others. One set of identical circular permutations is shown below.

1 4 3 2

4 2 3 1 2 4 1 3

3 2 1 4

We determine the number of circular permutations by considering one object in a fixed position and
calculating for the number of arrangements possible for the remaining three.

The number of circular permutations of n different objects is (n – 1)!

Example 5.7

In how many ways can 8 people be seated at a round table?

Solution

𝑃 = (8 − 1)! = 7! = (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 50,400

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Lesson 3
Combination
Self-Assessment Questions

1. What are the uses of combination?

2. What is the difference of combination to permutation?

Combination

Suppose we have four objects denoted by A, B, C, and D. We know from the preceding lesson that
there are twenty-four different permutations for four objects taken three at a time. Thus, if three of the
four are chosen in succession, there would be twenty-four different selections as shown below:

ABC ABD ACD BCD

ACB ADB ADC BDC
BAC BAD CAD CBD
BCA BDA CDA CDB
CAB DAB DAC DBC
CBA DBA DCA DCB

Without regard to order, however, there are only four ways in which the three can be chosen from the
four. These are selections called combinations. The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a
time is denoted by nCr. In the present example, we find that for each combination, there are 3!, or 6,
different permutations. Hence, the total number of permutations can be written as

4𝑃3 = 4𝐶3 ∙ 3!

In general, if there are n different objects and we take r at a time,

𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 ∙ 𝑟!

Dividing both sides of this equation by r!, we obtain

𝑛𝑃𝑟
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟!

Therefore, the number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

Example 5.8

In how many ways can a committee of 4 be chosen from a group of 4 people?

Solution

8! 8!
8𝐶4 = = = 70
(8 − 4)! 4! 4! 4!

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Example 5.9

In how many ways can we select 2 spades and 3 diamonds from a deck of 52 cards?

Solution

The number of ways in which we can select 2 from the 13 spades is

13! 13!
13𝐶2 = = = 78
(13 − 2)! 2! 11! 2!

And the number of ways in which we can select 3 from the 13 diamonds is

13! 13!
13𝐶3 = = = 286
(13 − 3)! 23! 10! 3!

By the Fundamental Principle of Counting, the total number of selections is

13𝐶2 ∙ 13𝐶3 = (78)(286) = 22,308.

Example 5.10

A box contains 5 red, 4 blue, and 3 white balls. In how many ways can we select 3 balls such that

a. They are of different colors?

b. They are all red?
c. Two are blue and one is white?
d. Exactly 2 are blue?
e. None is blue?

Solution

5! 4! 3! 5! 4! 3! (5)4! (4)3! (3)2!

a. 5𝐶1 ∙ 4𝐶1 ∙ 3𝐶1 = (5−1)!1! ∙ (4−1)!1! ∙ (3−1)!1! = 4!1! ∙ 3!1! ∙ 2!1! = ∙ ∙ =
4! 3! 2!
(5)(4)(3) = 60
5! 5! (5)(4)3! (5)(4) (5)(4)
b. 5𝐶3 = (5−3)!3! = 2!3! = = = (2)(1) = 10
2!3! 2!

4! 3! 4! 3! (4)(3)2! (3)2! (4)(3) 3 12

c. 4𝐶2 ∙ 3𝐶1 = (4−2)!2! ∙ (3−1)!1! = 2!2! ∙ 2!1! = 2!2!
∙ 2!1!
= 2!
∙ 1! = 2
∙3

= 6 ∙ 3 = 18

4! 8! 4! 8! (4)(3)2! (8)7! (4)(3) 12

d. 4𝐶2 ∙ 8𝐶1 = (4−2)!2! ∙ (8−1)!1! = 2!2! ∙ 7!1! = ∙ = ∙8= ∙8
2!2! 7!1! 2! 2

= 6 ∙ 8 = 48

8! 8! (8)(7)(6)5! (8)(7)(6)
e. 8𝐶3 = (8−3)!3! = 5!3! = = (3)(2)(1) = 56
5!3!

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Example 5.11

Referring to the box in example 5.10, in how many ways can we select 4balls such that at least 2 are
red?
Solution
“At least 2 red” means “2 or more red,” so the possibilities are
a. 2 red and 2 white or blue
b. 3 red and 1 white or blue
c. 4 red and 0 white or blue
5! 7! 5! 7! (5)(4)3!
∙ (75!2!
)(6)5!
= (52!
)(4) (7)(6)
For (a), 5𝐶2 ∙ 7𝐶2 = (5−2)!2! ∙ (7−2)!2! = 3!2! ∙ 5!2! = 3!2! ∙ 2!

= 10 ∙ 21 = 210

5! 7! 5! 7! (5)(4)3! (7)6! (5)(4)

For (b), 5𝐶3 ∙ 7𝐶1 = (5−3)!3! ∙ (7−1)!1! = 2!3! ∙ 6!1! = 2!3! ∙ = ∙ (7)
6!1! 2!

= 10 ∙ 7 = 70

5! 7! 5! 7! (5)4! 7!
For (c), 5𝐶4 ∙ 7𝐶0 = (5−4)!4! ∙ (7−0)!0! = 1!4! ∙ 7!0! = 1!4! ∙ 7!(1)

=5∙1=5

Total = 210+70+5 = 285

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Lesson 4
Types of Probability
Self-Assessment Questions

1. What is Probability?
2. Enumerate the types of probability.
3. Is there any possibility that a probability will exceed 1? Why or why not?

Theory of Probability

Probability (or probability value) is a number between 0 and 1 inclusive associated with the likelihood
of a given event. We assign a probability of 1 if we are certain that the event will happen, a probability
of 0 if we are sure that the event will not happen, and a probability of .5 if we are only “half-sure” that
the event will happen. You should rejoice and put all your worries aside when your Statistics teacher
says that your probability of passing is 1. But when she says that your probability of passing is zero, it
is best that you begin preparing yourself for the next term even before she could say “Sorry.” You should
keep your excitement, however, if she tells you that the probability of your passing or failing the course
is 1 because she is merely saying that you will certainly get neither an incomplete nor a conditional
grade, but rather either a passing or failing mark.
The probability that an event E will occur is denoted by P (E) and the probability will not occur is denoted
by P (E’). In any observation, an event will either occur or not occur; hence; the sum of the probability
of occurrence plus the probability of non-occurrence is always equal to 1. That is
𝑃 (𝐸 ) + 𝑃 (𝐸 ′ ) = 1
For instance, if in a random selection of a class representative to a school contest, the probability of a
boy is 0.3, then the probability of a girl (ruling out the third possibility of a third sex) is 1 - 0.3 = 0.7.

Types of Probability
There are three different conceptual approaches to the study of probability theory. They are
1. The subjective or personalist approach
2. The relative frequency or empirical approach
3. The classical or a priori approach

Subjective probability is a personal assessment of the likelihood of occurrence of an event, based on

all evidence available. It is appropriate when the person making the judgment finds that there is only
one opportunity for the event to occur and it will either occur or not occur at that particular instant. A
doctor, for example, may use subjective probabilities to assess the chances that a certain patient
afflicted with a rare disease will survive an operation. Likewise, an economist may use subjective
probabilities to evaluate the likelihood that there will be a recession in the next five years.
Without the use of any sophisticated detecting device and relying only on the past experiences, an
expectant mother could only assign a subjective probability value for the sex of the unborn child. You
were probably using subjective probabilities when you made statements like “The chance are 60-40
that ...” Indeed, the subjective approach is called for when one has very little or no direct evidence
regarding the occurrence of an event and he has no choice but to use intuition and certain subjective
factors.

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Empirical probability is defined as the proportion of times that a particular outcomes occurs in a very
large number of observations or experiments. It is the relative frequency of an event in past
occurrences. If we get the IQ scores of a random sample of 1,000 students in our school and find that
for every 100 students, one has an IQ score of 150, using the empirical approach to probability theory,
we would be justified in saying that the probability that a randomly chosen student of our school has an
1
IQ score of 150 is 100 or 0.1. If for every ten people who enter a department store on a pay-day, three
make it at least one purchase, the same approach to probability permit us to assert that the probability
3
that a person entering this department store on a pay-day will make it at least one purchase is 10 or .3.

Before we discuss the classical probability, it is essential that we define some of the most commonly
used terms in probability theory. Among these are: experiment, sample space, sample point, and event.
Experiment is defined as an activity which can be done repeatedly under similar conditions, and which
can result in an outcome. Tossing a coin is an experiment involving two outcomes, head or tail. Rolling
a die and drawing a card from a well-shuffled deck of playing cards are experiments having six and fifty-
two outcomes respectively. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is known as sample
space; each particular outcome is a sample point. The sample space for “tossing a coin” experiment is
{head, tail}, and for the “rolling a die” experiment, it is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Any subset of a sample space is an event. “Selecting an ace at random” from a deck of 52 cards is an
example of an event having four sample points. “Drawing a spade” is another event having four sample
points. In general, an event is said to have occurred if the outcome of the experiment is one of the
sample points contained in the event; otherwise, the event is said not to have occurred.
It should be emphasized that the outcomes of an experiment similar to those described above are
assumed to be equally likely. That is, they are assumed to have the same probability value. In a single
toss of a balance coin (unless otherwise described, coins and dice are always assumed to be balanced
and “fair”), for example, it is reasonable to expect that the chance that it will fall head up is the same as
the chance that it will fall tail up. Since the sum of the probabilities of the different outcomes of an
experiment is equal to 1, we have
1 1
𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 ) = , 𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 ) =
2 2
1
In the case of a die, the probability of each of the six possible outcomes 6.

We now define classical probability as follows: If an experiment can result in N equally likely outcomes
𝑛
and an event E can result in n outcomes, then probability that E will occur is . More formally,
𝑁

𝑛 (𝐸 )
𝑃 (𝐸 ) =
𝑁
Where n(E) = number of sample points in E
N = total number of sample points in the sample space
Example 5.12
Two candidates, A and B, are running for public office. If the probability that A will win the election is
0.35, what is the probability that B will win?
Solution
The probability that B will win is equal to the probability that A will lose, so
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 0.35 = 0.65
Example 5.13
Find the probability of getting an even number from a single toss of a die.
Solution

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Sample Space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}, N = 6

Event = {2,4,6}, n(E) = 3
3 1
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) = 𝑜𝑟
6 2

Example 5.14
If a pair of dice is tossed, find the probability of obtaining a sum of 7.
Solution
By the Fundamental Principle of Counting, we know that a pair of dice can result in 6 x 6 or 36 ways.
(N = 36). The event corresponds to six simple points, namely: (1,6), (6,1), (2,5), (5,2), (3,4), and (4,3).
Hence,
6 1
𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 7) = 𝑜𝑟
36 6

Example 5.15
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find the probability of drawing
a. an ace
b. a spade
c. a face card
Solution
An ordinary deck consists of 52 cards (N = 52), of which are 4 are aces, 13 are spades, and 12 are face
cards.
4 1
a. 𝑃(𝑎𝑐𝑒) = 52 𝑜𝑟 13
13 1
b. 𝑃(𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒) = 52 𝑜𝑟 4
12 3
c. 𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 ) = 52 𝑜𝑟 13

Example 5.16
A box contains 5 red, 4 blue and 3 white balls. If a ball is chosen at random, what is the probability that
a. It is not red?
b. It is not white?
Solution
The box has twelve balls (N = 12)
5 7
a. 𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑑 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 ) = 1 − 12 = 12
3 9 3
b. 𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = 1 − 12 = 12 𝑜𝑟 4

Example 5.17
With reference to the box described in Example 5.16, suppose three balls are drawn at random. What
is the probability that
a. They are of different colors?
b. They are all red?
c. Two are blue and one is white?
d. Exactly two are blue?
e. None is blue?

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Solution
The total number of ways in which 3 balls can be drawn from the box is
𝑁 = 12𝐶3 = 220
Using the results obtained in the example 5.10, we have
60 3
a. 𝑃 (𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑠) = 220 𝑜𝑟 11
10 1
b. 𝑃 (𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑑 ) = 220 𝑜𝑟 22
18 9
c. 𝑃 (2 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒, 1 𝑟𝑒𝑑 ) = 220 𝑜𝑟 110
48 12
d. 𝑃 (𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 2 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 220 𝑜𝑟 55
56 4
e. 𝑃 (𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 220 𝑜𝑟 55

Marginal Probability and Joint Probability

The probability of occurrence of a single event is known as marginal probability. Basically, it is the
probability of an event which requires that only one characteristic or attribute be satisfied. The
probabilities associated with events like drawing an ace from a deck of cards, getting a head from a
single toss of a coin, and selecting a red ball from a box containing balls of assorted colors are marginal
probabilities, which can be denoted by 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑃(𝐻), 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 (𝑅), respectively.
If two or more events can occur together, the probability of their simultaneous occurrence is called joint
probability. In contrast to the marginal probability, joint probability requires two or more characteristics
or attributes be satisfied at the same time. The probability of drawing a red card that shows a face is a
joint probability which can be denoted by𝑃 (𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹 ). The probability of obtaining two heads from two
successive tosses of a coin is also a joint probability and this can be denoted by 𝑃(𝐻1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻2 ).Obviously,
the joint probability of any two events which cannot occur together is zero. For instance, it is not possible
to have a ball which is both blue and white (unless each ball has more than one color).
Therefore,𝑃 (𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑊) = 0

Mutually Exclusive and Non-mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if there is no opportunity for them to occur simultaneously
or if they have no common sample point. “Drawing an ace” and “drawing a king” from a deck of cards
are mutually exclusive because it is not possible to obtain an ace which is a king at the same time.
Likewise, the events “selecting a red ball” and “selecting a blue ball” from the box are mutually exclusive
because a ball which is both red and blue does not exist. Essentially, two or more events are mutually
exclusive if their joint probability is zero.
Events that can happen at the same time are non-mutually exclusive events. In particular, they are
events which have some sample points in common. The events “drawing an ace” and “drawing a spade”
for example, have one sample point in common since one of the four aces is a spade. Hence, these
two events are non-mutually exclusive.
The concept underlying mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events can be illustrated by
Venn diagrams such as the ones given below.

A B C D

Figure 5.1 Figure 5.2

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

In these diagrams, the entire sample space is represented by a rectangle and the events are
represented by circles within the rectangle. Figure 7.1a shows two disjoint circles representing two
mutually exclusive events. Figure 7.1b shows overlapping circles indicating that the events being
represented are non-mutually exclusive.

The Addition Rule

Oftentimes, we get interested in the probability of one event or another (or both) occurring in a single
experiment. For example, what is the probability of drawing an ace or a king from an ordinary deck?
What is the probability of an ace or a spade? If we select a ball at a random from a box containing 5
red, 4 blue, and 3 white balls, what is the probability that it is either red or blue?
We shall use the symbol “P (A or B)” to denote the probability of occurrence of events A or B. some
books, however, emphasize the operation used in computing for this probability by using either P (A U
B) or P (A+B). For the first “card problem” in the preceding paragraph, we observe that there are eight
8
ways in which we can draw either an ace or a king; therefore, P (ace or king) is equal to 52 which is also
the sum of the probability of an ace plus the probability of a king. In the case of the “ball problem”, we
find that since there are only three colors, selecting a red or a blue ball is equivalent to selecting one
which is not white; therefore they have the same probability value.
9
P (not white) = P (red or blue) = 12
5 4
Now, since 𝑃 (𝑟𝑒𝑑 ) = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 (𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = , we have 𝑃 (𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 𝑃 (𝑟𝑒𝑑) + 𝑃 (𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒)
12 12

It seems reasonable to say that the probability of A or B is equal to the probability of A plus the probability
of B. But before we make any generalization, let us consider the situation involving “ace or spade”. We
noted earlier that these two events are not mutually exclusive because they can occur together. One of
the four aces is actually among the thirteen spades. We realize that if we merely add P (ace) and P
(spade), we would be adding the probability of the ace of spades twice. In order to correct the probability
value resulting from this double counting, we must subtract the joint probability value resulting from this
double counting, we must subtract the joint probability of the two events. Thus, we have
𝑃 (𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒) = 𝑃 (𝑎𝑐𝑒) + 𝑃 (𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒) − 𝑃 (𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒)
4 13 1
= + 52 − 52
52
16 4
= 52 𝑜𝑟 13

We now make the following Addition Rule:

𝑃 (𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴) + 𝑃 (𝐵) − 𝑃 (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
For any events A and B.
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, P (A) + P (B) is equal to zero. Therefore, the above formula
is reduced to
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
Also, if 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , … , 𝐴𝑘 are mutually exclusive events, the probability that anyone of them will occur is p
𝑃 (𝐴1 𝑜𝑟 𝐴2 𝑜𝑟 𝐴3 𝑜𝑟 … 𝐴𝑘 ) = 𝑃 (𝐴1 ) + 𝑃 (𝐴2 ) + 𝑃(𝐴3 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴𝑘 )

Example 5.18
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find the probability of each of the following:
a. spade or face card
b. face card or red card

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Solution:
a. 𝑃 (𝑆𝑜𝑟 𝐹 ) = 𝑃(𝑆) + 𝑃(𝐹 ) − 𝑃 (𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹 )
13 12 3
= + 52 − 52
52
22 11
= 𝑜𝑟
52 26

b. 𝑃 (𝐹 𝑜𝑟 𝑅) = 𝑃 (𝐹 ) + 𝑃 (𝑅) − 𝑃(𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅)

12 26 6
= 52 + 52 − 52
32 8
= 52 𝑜𝑟 13

Conditional Probability
Let us consider once again the “tossing a die” experiment. We let E denote the event of getting an even
number and G the event of getting a number greater than 3. By virtue of formula 7-1, we have
3 3
𝑃(𝐸 ) = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐺 ) =
6 6

Supposed that after tossing the die, we are told that G has occurred. What is the probability of E? The
information we have on the outcome of the experiment essentially reduces the number of possibilities.
Whereas before, we had six (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6), now we have only three (4, 5, and 6). Since two of
these correspond to the occurrence of E, we say that the probability of an even number, given a number
2
greater than 3 is . Notationally, this is written as
3
2
𝑃 ( 𝐸 ⁄𝐺 ) = 3 .

The probability that an event B occurs when it is known that some event A has occurred is called
conditional probability. This is denoted by 𝑃 (𝐵⁄𝐴) which is read “the probability of B, given A.” The
probability of A, given B is written as 𝑃 (𝐴⁄𝐵).
From the above example, it can be shown that for any events A and B,
𝑛(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃 ( 𝐵 ⁄𝐴) = ,
𝑛 (𝐴)

Where n (A and B) = number of sample points common to A and B (or number of ways in which A and
B can occur together)
n(A) = number of sample points in A.
Note that while P (A or B) = P (B or A) and P (A and B) = P (B and A), P (A\B) ≠ P (B\A).
Example 5.19
Referring to example 7.5.4, determine the probability that the person chosen to head the committee is
an educator, given that he or she is a business executive.
Solution:
𝑛 (𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) 12 6
𝑃 (𝐸\𝐵) = = 26 𝑜𝑟
𝑛 (𝐵) 13

Dividing the numerator and the denominator of the right-hand side of formula by N, we obtain
𝑛 (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑁
𝑃 (𝐵\𝐴) = 𝑛(𝐴)
𝑁

𝑛(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Since 𝑃 (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑁

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

𝑛(𝐴)
And 𝑃 (𝐴 ) = 𝑁
, by formula 7-1.

By formula 7-1,
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃 (𝐵\𝐴) = 𝑃 (𝐴)

Dependent and Independent Events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one has no effect on the
probability of occurrence of the other. When the occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does affect
the probability of occurrence of the other, the two are said to be dependent on each other. The outcomes
associated with tossing a coin and a die are considered independent events because the outcome on
the coin does not in any way affect the probability of a number occurring on the die, and the number
obtained from the die does not affect the probability of getting either a head or a tail from the coin. Thus,
P (H) = 1/2, no matter what the outcome on the die is. Also, P (1) = 1/6 regardless of whether a head
or a tail came up from the coin.
This illustration clearly implies that if events A and B are independent,
𝑃 (𝐴\𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴)
And
𝑃(𝐵\𝐴) = 𝑃 (𝐵).

The Multiplication Rule

The multiplication rule, which can be derived by multiplying both sides of formula (7-5) by P (A), is
employed to evaluate the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of events A and B (also known as
the joint probability of A and B). For dependent events, the rule of multiplication is
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵\𝐴).
When A and B are independent events, P (B\A) = P (B); hence, for independent events
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵)
In general, if 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , 𝐴3 , … , 𝐴𝑘 = 𝑃 (𝐴1 ). 𝑃 (𝐴2 ). 𝑃 (𝐴3 ) … 𝑃 (𝐴𝑘 ).
Example 5.20
The probability that the raw materials needed by a furniture company will arrive time is .6. If the raw
materials arrive on time, the probability that the company will finish the orders on time is .8. What is the
probability that the raw materials arrive on time and the others are finished on time?
Solution:
Let A = event that the raw materials arrive on time
C = event that the orders are finished on time
P (A) = .6
P (C\A) =.8
P (A and C) = P (A) ∙P (C\A)
= (.6) (.8)
= .48

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Let us illustrate further the difference between dependent and independent events by considering two
cases of sampling – one with replacement and the other without replacement. Suppose we put ten
pieces of paper numbered from 1 to 10 in a box, and after mixing, we draw two pieces at random, one
after the other. We know that the probability that the first number is even is 5/10 since out of the ten
numbers, 5 are even. If the first piece of paper is replaced, the probability of getting the same or another
even number for the second drawing is also 5/10. But if the first paper drawn is not replaced, then only
nine numbers remain in the box and therefore the probability of having an even number for the second
drawing is either 4/9 or 5/9, depending on whether the first number is even or odd. Clearly, sampling
with replacement generates independent events, while sampling without replacement generates
dependent events. Thus, by the multiplication rule, the probability of drawing two even numbers in
succession, with replacement, is
𝑃 (𝐸1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸2 )
5 5
= ∙
10 10
25 1
= 100 𝑜𝑟 4

And the probability of drawing two even numbers, without replacement, is

𝑃 (𝐸1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸2 )

5 4
= ∙
10 9
20 2
= 90 𝑜𝑟 9

Contingency Tables
A contingency table is a table in which all possible events for one observation are listed as column
headings, all possible events for a second observation are listed as row labels, and each resulting cell
shows the frequency of each joint occurrence. It can serve as a basis for constructing a joint probability
table which, in turn, facilitates the computations of various marginal and conditional probabilities.
Consider the following example:
Example 5.21
The 100 participants in a student convention are classified according to sex and course as follows:
Table 5.1
CONTINGENCY TABLE FOR STUDENT PARTICIPANTS IN A CONVENTION
Course Arts Science Business Engineering Education Total
Sex
Male 12 5 16 17 2 52
Female 22 6 11 4 5 48
Total 34 11 27 21 7 100

Table 5.2 is the corresponding joint probability table. Each cell value of the table is obtained by dividing
the joint-occurrence frequency in the contingency table by 100, the total number of students. Note that
the marginal totals of the rows and columns are the marginal probabilities of the individual events.

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Table 5.2
JOINT PROBABILITY FOR STUDENT PARTICIPANTS IN A CONVENTION
Course Arts Science Business Engineering Education Total
Sex
Male 0.12 0.05 0.16 0.17 0.02 0.52
Female 0.22 0.06 0.11 0.04 0.05 0.48
Marginal 0.34 0.11 0.27 0.21 0.07 1.00
Probability

The marginal probabilities are:

P(M) = 0.52
P(F) = 0.48
P(A) = 0.34
P(S) = 0.11
P(B) = .27
P(E) = .21
P(T) = .07
Some of the joint probabilities are:
P(M and A) = 0.12
P(M and S) = 0.05
P(F and B) = 0.11
P(F and E) = 0.04
Example 5.22
Referring to the joint probability table in example 7.9.1, suppose one student is chosen at random to
speak on student activism in the Philippines. What is the probability that the one chosen is
a. a male, given that he is a business student?
b. a female, given that she is a science student?
c. taking education, given that the student is a female?

Solution:
𝑃 (𝑀 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) .16
a. 𝑃 (𝑀|𝐵) = = .27 = .5926
𝑃(𝐵)

𝑃 (𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆) .06
b. 𝑃 (𝐹|𝑆) = = .11 = .5455
𝑃(𝑆)

𝑃 (𝑇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹) .05
c. 𝑃 (𝑇|𝐹 ) = = .48 = .1042
𝑃(𝐹)

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Lesson 5
Probability Distribution
Self-Assessment Questions

1. Define Probability Distribution.

2. Enumerate the types of probability distributions.
3. Differentiate Binomial distribution and Poisson distribution.

Random Variables
Let us consider an experiment in which a coin is tossed three times. There are eight possible outcomes
of this experiment and the sample space is
𝑆 = { 𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻}
Suppose we are interested in the number of heads that fall. Denoting this variable by X, we find by
inspection that X=0 if we obtain the outcome TTT; X=1 if the outcome is TTH, THT, or HTT; X=2 if the
outcome is THH, HTH, or HHT; and X=3 if the result is HHH. Since the value which the variable X
assumes is determined by the outcome of a situation involving an element of chance, we call X a chance
variable or random variable.
A random variable, like any other variable, can be either discrete or continuous. A discrete random
variable is one which takes on only a limited number of values. Examples are the number of even
umbers obtained from four successive tosses of a die. (E = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4), the number of correct answers
a student gets in a 10-item true-or-false test (C = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , 10), and the number of defective
articles which an inspector gets if he randomly selects five articles from a large shipment. (D = 0, 1, 2,
3, 4, 5). A continuous random variable, on the other hand, is one which can assume any value within a
given range. The time required for a worker to assemble a certain type of electrical component and the
height of students entering high school are continuous random variables.

Probability Distributions
A probability distribution may be defined as a distribution showing the different values of a random
variable with their corresponding probabilities. Generally, when it is not advisable to list all the possible
values of the random variable because the process is too cumbersome, a mathematical function is used
to characterize or generalize the correspondence involved: This correspondence which assigns
probabilities to the values of the random variable is referred to as a probability function. For a random
variable X, the probability that it takes on x as value is denoted by either f(x) or P(X=x). Thus, if we toss
a coin three times and denote the number of heads that fall by X, then we have
1
𝑓 (0) = 𝑃 (𝑋 = 0) =
8
3
𝑓 (1 ) = 𝑃 (𝑋 = 1 ) =
8
3
𝑓 (2 ) = 𝑃 (𝑋 = 2 ) =
8
1
𝑓 (3 ) = 𝑃 (𝑋 = 3 ) =
8
In the experiment of tossing a die, if we denote the number that occurs by X, the probability function
may be written as

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

1
𝑓 (𝑥 ) = , 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
6
1 1 1 1
This means that 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 6 , 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = 6 , 𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 6 , … , 𝑃(𝑋 = 6) = 6.

It must be noted that the sum of the probabilities of all the values of a random variable is always equal
to 1.
Example 5.23
Consider an experiment where a ball is drawn at random from a box containing 6 red, 4 blue, 3 green,
and 2 white balls. Let a random variable Y take on the value 0 if the ball drawn is red, 1 if it is blue, and
2 if it is either green or white. Construct a probability table for this situation.
Solution.
While the experiment has 4 possible outcomes, the random variable Y can take on only 3 different
values. The probability distribution is as follows:

Probability distributions are generally classified into two according to the nature of the random variable
involved. Those which are defined by discrete random variables are called discrete probability
distributions and the most commonly used types under this major classification are the binomial,
hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions. Probability distributions which involve continuous random
variables are known as continuous probability distributions, the most remarkable of which is the normal
distribution.

Binomial Probability Distribution

The experiment of tossing a coin a fixed number of times has certain properties common to many other
situations involving repeated trials. Among the most significant ones are:
1. There are only two outcomes – head or tail. In many other experiments, we either get what we
want or we get what we do not want. Tossing a die, for example, could result in either a “5” or
another number. A card drawn could be either an ace or another card; an article chosen from
a shipment would either be good or defective; and the response which a market researcher
gets from a customer would be either favorable or unfavorable. In other words, the outcome of
a particular experiment could be either a “success” or a “failure”.
2. The probability of a head remains .5 for each toss regardless of the number of times the coin
is tossed; that is, the probability of a head is constant from trial to trial. The same can be said
about the other situations described above. The probability of a die showing a “5” is always
equal to 1/6; the probability of drawing an ace remains equal to 4/52 as long as the card is
replaced before the next drawing. Under certain conditions, the probability of a defective article
being chosen from a shipment, or the probability of a customer giving a favorable response,
can be assumed to be fixed over time.

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3. The outcome of one toss does not affect the outcome of any other toss; in other words, the
trials are independent. This is always true not only for the coin but for the die as well. For the
drawing problems, however, selections have to be done with replacement in order for the trials
to be independent. Then of course, the responses in a survey are assumed to be independent
if each customer is left alone to make his own personal choice between a favorable response
and an unfavorable response.

Any experiment similar to those described above is called a binomial experiment or a Bernoulli
process (after the seventeenth-century Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli). The variable involved is
a binomial random variable and the discrete probability distribution that results from assigning
probabilities to the binomial random variable is called the binomial distribution.
The properties of a Bernoulli process can be summarized as follows:
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
2. There are two mutually exclusive outcomes on each trial – one is called success and the
other failure.
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial.

4. The repeated trials are independent.

In general, the binomial distribution can be used to determine the probability of obtaining
𝑥(𝑥 ≤ 𝑛)successes in 𝑛trials. Let us illustrate this using the coin problem we discussed earlier. In
particular, we are interested in the probability of obtaining exactly three heads in five tosses of a coin.
Of course we can arrive at this probability value by listing the 32 (or 2 5) different outcomes of the five
tosses and then adding the probabilities of the outcomes corresponding to three heads and two tails,
but that would be quite cumbersome.
Besides, we are not interested in outcomes other than “three heads”. Deeper analysis would indicate
that the total number of ways in which three heads can be obtained from five tosses is 5C3 = 10. Two of
these are HHHTT and HHTHT with probabilities respectively. Like these first two, the probability value
of each of the other eight has three factors of P(H) and two factors of P(T). Hence, the probability of
getting exactly three heads in five tosses of a coin is

Suppose we denote the number of heads by X and we consider getting a head a success. Our example
shows that when the probability of a success is ½, the probability of having three successes in five trials
may be written as
1 3 1 2 5
𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 5𝐶3 ( ) ( ) =
2 2 16

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

We arrive at the following generalization: the probability of getting x successes in n independent trials
is
𝑓 (𝑥 ) = 𝑛𝐶𝑥𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,1,2,3 … 𝑛

Where n = number of independent trials

x = number of successes
p = probability of a success in one trial, and
q = 1 – p = probability of a failure.
Example 5.24
In 3 tosses of a die, find the probability that 5 will appear twice.
Solution:
n=3
x=2
p = 1/6
q = 1 – 1/6 = 5/6

Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

In lesson 4, we described sampling with replacement and sampling without replacement to illustrate the
difference between dependent and independent events. Specifically, we noted that sampling with
replacement is an experiment involving independent events, whereas, sampling without replacement is
an experiment involving dependent events. Then in binomial probability distribution, we emphasized
that in order for an experiment to qualify as a Bernoulli process, it must be able to satisfy certain
requirements, one of which is that repeated trials must be independent. Since sampling without
replacement fails to meet tis requirement of the Bernoulli process, the binomial distribution cannot be
employed to determine the probability of x successes in a sample drawn without replacement.
In general, when sampling without replacement is employed in a situation which otherwise would qualify
as a Bernoulli experiment, we can apply the hypergeometric probability of distribution. This type of
discrete probability distribution is particularly useful when a random sample of size n is selected from
a finite population consisting of S successes and N – S failures, and we are interested in the probability
that out of the n items, x are considered successes and n – x are considered failures. Let us illustrate
this by an example.
Suppose we sample three balls from a box containing 4 red and 6 white balls. What is the probability
that we obtain one red and two white balls? Our knowledge of combinational analysis enables us to
calculate the following:
The number of ways in which we can select a ball from the four red balls is
4C1 = 4.
The number of ways in which we can select two from the six white balls is 6C2 =15.
The number of ways in which we can select three balls from the box is 10C3 = 120.
By virtue of the Fundamental Principle of Counting, the total number of ways in which one red and two
white balls can be selected is
4C1*6C2 = (4)(15) = 60.

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Therefore, if we denote the number of red balls obtained by X, the probability that this variable will take
on the value 1 is
4C1 ∗ 6C2 60 1
𝑃 (𝑋 = 1) = = 𝑜𝑟
10C2 120 2
Now, to generalize the procedure used, let the hypergeometric random variable be denoted by X. The
probability that X will assume a particular value x is given by the formula
Example 5.25
Among the 20 new computer machines ordered by a school, 3 are defective. If 5 of those computer
machines are randomly selected for inspection, what is the probability that
a. Two defectives are included?
b. All three defectives are included?

Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson (pronounced as /Pwă-sōn’/, after the early nineteenth century French mathematician
Simeon Poisson) distribution is a discrete probability distribution which is appropriate if we wish to
determine the probability that a random variable will assume a value corresponding to the occurrences
of an event during a given time interval or in a specified space or region. The Poisson random variable
is similar to the binomial random variable except that the former can take on the infinite set of values x
= 0, 1, 2, 3, …, whereas the latter takes only a fixed number of values.
For example, given the average number of calls per hour received by an office, using the Poisson
distribution, we can compute for the probability that the office will receive more than, or less than, or
equal to a designated number of calls per hour, that is, we can compute for the probability that the
random variable will take on a value greater than, or less than, or equal to any whole number, likewise,
given the average number of mistakes per page which a typist makes, we can determine, using the
Poisson distribution, the probability of any number of errors per page. The fact that the random variable
X can assume infinite values poses no problems, since the probabilities decrease and basically become
negligible after the first few values of x.
The probability of exactly x occurrences in the Poisson distribution is
𝜇𝑥 ∙ 𝑒 𝜇
𝑓 (𝑥 ) = , 𝑥 = 0,1,2,3 …
𝑥!

Where 𝜇 is the average number of occurrences in a given time interval or region and e is the constant
2.7183… used in connection with natural logarithms. Note that µ is a parameter, which, if known,
enables us to write out the entire Poisson probability distribution. Since calculations of the Poisson
probabilities can be quite tedious, it is ordinarily advisable to use tables.

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Example 5.26
The secretary of Obias, Ramos, and Associates, a law firm, fins that there are on the average 5 calls
from clients per day. Find the probability that the firm will receive exactly 3 calls on a particular weekday.
Solution
𝜇=5
𝑥=3
53 ∙ 𝑒 −5 (125)(0.00674)
𝑓 (3) = = = 0.1404
3! 6
Example 5.27
Assume that the average number of schooldays classes are suspended due to typhoons within a
semester in Metro Manila is 3.8. What is the probability that for this semester, classes in Metro Manila
will be suspended due to typhoons for at most 5 days?
Solution
Let X be the number of schooldays classes in Metro Manila are suspended due to typhoons. We have
µ = 3.8 and x = 0,1,2,3,4,5
Using the Poisson probability formula, we obtain
𝑃 (𝑋 ≤ 5) = 𝑓 (0 ) + 𝑓 (1 ) + 𝑓 (2 ) + 𝑓 (3 ) + 𝑓 (4 ) + 𝑓 (5)
3.80 ∙ 𝑒 −3.8 3.81 ∙ 𝑒 −3.8 3.82 ∙ 𝑒 −3.8 3.83 ∙ 𝑒 −3.8 3.84 ∙ 𝑒 −3.8 3.85 ∙ 𝑒 −3.8
= + + + + +
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!
= 0.0224 + 0.0850 + 0.1615 + 0.2046 + 0.1944 + 0.1477
= 0.8156

Mean of a Discrete Probability Distribution

A probability distribution, like an ordinary frequency distribution, can be described in terms of its mean
and variance. The mean is called the expected value of the probability distribution and is basically the
weighted average of all the possible values of the random variables with their respective probabilities
as weights. It is obtained by multiplying each value of the random variable by the probability of its
occurrence and summing up all products thus obtained. In general, if X is a discrete random variable
which takes on the values 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , 𝑥3 , … 𝑥𝑛 with probabilities 𝑓(𝑥1 ), 𝑓 (𝑥2 ) , 𝑓(𝑥3 ), … 𝑓 (𝑥𝑛 ), its expected
value, denoted by E(X), is
𝜇 = 𝐸 (𝑋) = 𝑥1 𝑓(𝑥1 ) + 𝑥2 𝑓(𝑥2 ) + 𝑥3 𝑓(𝑥3 ) + ⋯ + 𝑥𝑛 𝑓(𝑥𝑛 )
For convenience, this can be simply written as

𝜇 = 𝐸 (𝑋) = ∑ 𝑥𝑓(𝑥)

Thus, in three flips of a coin, the average number of heads we expect is

1 3 3 1 12
𝜇 = 𝐸 (𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = 0 ( ) + 1 ( ) + 2 ( ) + 3 ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 1.5
8 8 8 8 8
For binomial distribution, since the probability of a success is constant from trial to trial, the mean or
expected number of success is simply the product of the number of trials times the probability of success
in a single trial. That is,
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝
Therefore, if we toss a coin 100 times (n =100), we could expect to obtain a head (p=1/2) about 50
times. If the probability of a defective item resulting from a certain production process is 0.2, then for a
production lot of 1,000 items, we could expect that about 200 are defective.

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

For a hypergeometric distribution, the mean is computed by applying the formula

𝑛𝑆
𝜇=
𝑁
Where n = sample size, N = population size, S = number of successes in the population.

Example 5.28
Find the mean of the number of tails X in 5 flips of a coin, using
a. The general formula for the mean of a discrete probability distribution
b. The formula for the mean of binomial distribution
Solution

Example 5.29
Among 20 new computer machines, 3 are defective. If 5 are randomly picked for inspection, how many
of them can be expected to be defective?
Solution
We have a hypergeometric distribution with N = 20, n =5, and S = 3. To apply the general formula, we
require the following table

Using the formula for the mean of a hypergeometric distribution, we have

𝑛𝑆 (5)(3) 15
𝜇= = = = 0.75
𝑁 20 20

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CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Variance of a Discrete Probability Distribution

The variance of a discrete probability distribution is computed in almost the same way as the variance
of a frequency distribution is calculated. There is just a slight difference. The variance of a frequency
distribution is the average of the squared deviations from the mean, whereas, the variance of a
probability distribution is the expected value of the squared deviations from the mean. By this definition,
we can derive the formula

𝜎 2 = 𝐸(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 = ∑(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 𝑓(𝑥)

Where
x = value of the random variable X
µ = mean or expected value of X
f(x) = probability that X takes on the value x
The square root of the variance is the standard deviation σ of the probability distribution. The formula
is thus

𝜎 = √∑(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 𝑓(𝑥)

When the deviations from the mean are large numbers or decimal numbers consisting of several digits,
the computation for the value σ2 is facilitated by using the equivalent formula

𝜎 2 = ∑(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 𝑓(𝑥) − 𝜇2

As in the case of the mean, there are special formulas for the variance of specific types of probability
distributions. For the binomial distribution, the formula is
𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Where
n = total number of trials
p = probability of a success
q = 1-p = probability of failure
Example 5.30
Determine the variance and the standard deviation of the probability distribution in Example 5.28.

Solution

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 CHAPTER 5 – Probability

Since we have a binomial distribution with n = 5 and p = 1/2., we can apply the formula
𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
1 1
𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 5 ( ) ( ) = 1.25
2 2
The standard deviation is

𝜎 = √1.25 = 1.1180

Example 5.31
Use the equivalent formula of the variance of a discrete probability distribution in Example 5.29.

Solution

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