PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN

Chapter 4: Alternatives Analysis

Introduction

The analysis of existing conditions in Chapter 3 described the current traffic safety and
congestion problems the PACTS region is experiencing. The future trends analysis
forecast worsening traffic conditions should current trends continue. Chapter 3 also
documented current deficiencies in the passenger transportation network.

The foundation of the Destination Tomorrow alternatives analysis was formed by:
• the analyses of Chapter 3;
• examination of present transportation and land use policies;
• input from PACTS members, private citizens and interested stakeholders; and
• previous PACTS studies.

The alternatives analysis explored the impacts of potential transportation and land use
strategies on the region’s future transportation system. Many of the strategies tested were
changes to the physical infrastructure of the transportation system, while others were
aimed toward modification of policies that influence the shape of the transportation
system. Both system-wide transportation impacts and facility-specific impacts were
determined. Four different alternatives or “themes” were analyzed: interstate, arterial,
transit and compact land use.

• Interstate Highway Theme – Emphasis on

expanding and optimizing the region’s Tested Themes
interstate highways. Includes new and/or Transportation
reconfigured interchanges, (the addition of Themes
auxiliary travel lanes), widened roadway Interstate
segments, new alignment roadways and toll Highway
strategies. Strategies Best
Strategies
Evaluation

Arterial
• Arterial Roadway Theme – Significantly Roadway Transport.
expands the arterial roadway system, and Strategies Strategies
includes reconfigured roadways, widened
roadways and new alignment roadways. Transit
Strategies
Land Use
• Transit Theme – Appreciably expands the Strategies
bus and passenger rail transit systems, and Land Use
includes increased service frequency and Strategies
expansion of service areas.

• Compact Land Use Theme – Analyzed the transportation impacts and benefits of
clustering 50 percent of the region’s future population and employment growth in
existing or new village/urban centers.

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Methodology for Alternatives Analysis

Each theme included a number of changes to components

of the transportation system. These changes included
In Chapter 4, the word “strategy”
improvements, alterations and additions to existing means a tested change in physical
infrastructure as well as the building of new infrastructure, or change in
infrastructure. To better understand the impacts of these policy.
changes, each theme was divided into several increments,
or logical groupings of strategies. Each theme was also
evaluated independent of the other themes by a set of system-wide quantitative measures.

Given the large impacts that substantial transportation investments can have on land use
patterns, a series of Land Use Response forecasts was also developed. These forecasts
attempted to capture the potential magnitude and direction of land use development that
could occur in urban, suburban and rural areas based on the particular strategies tested in
the four theme packages. For example, the Interstate Theme strategy of expanding the
interstate system would be expected to further promote the dispersion of population and
employment to the region’s outlying rural and suburban areas due to reduced travel times
and increased accessibility. The Land Use Response forecast to this strategy would
therefore focus more development in the region’s outlying rural and suburban areas.
Subsequent to the analysis of each of the four themes, the most robust grouping from
each theme was modeled with the Land Use Response forecasts.

Individual strategies within each theme were rated using a set of performance measures
derived from Destination Tomorrow’s Goals and Objectives. These ratings were used to
develop a comprehensive transportation package that included the best potential
strategies from each theme. This “best of” package represents those transportation
strategies that collectively most effectively balance meeting identified transportation
needs, and that are consistent with other regional objectives in the areas of economic
development, land use, environmental quality, energy conservation and regional focus.

The PACTS Travel Demand Model was used to analyze each of the theme packages.
The results were compared to the Year 2025 Base Model forecasts. (Destination
Tomorrow also used a Year 2000 Base Model that represented current conditions for
comparing results.) The Year 2025 Base Model represents conditions in 2025 based on
population and employment forecast prepared by GPCOG and on a “no-build”
transportation network. The no-build network is today’s system plus projects that have
been funded and not yet built, and projects that have a very high probability of being
built. Using a no-build network is standard practice in transportation forecasting, and

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allows for an accurate (and unbiased by other system changes) testing of potential
changes to the system.

The Model’s results need to be interpreted with five caveats. First, to overstate the
obvious, the Model is only a model. Its value lies in its ability to predict the complex
impacts, within a reasonable tolerance, that result from changes in the transportation
network. It is not able to precisely predict the level of traffic as a result of these changes.
Second, it is a closed system modeling the p.m. peak hour (4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.)
therefore the total number of trips is fixed. This fixing of trips can result in an
overstatement of congestion or an overstatement of the potential benefits of a particular
improvement. Third, the destination of the trips (trip distribution) varies from theme to
theme. This makes interpretation of the results more difficult than if the trip distribution
were held constant. However, trip distribution is required to assess the impacts of the
strategy being analyzed. Fourth, the model’s intersection modeling function was
disabled to better reflect the true capacity of the roadway and true travel demand.
However, this revision can also distort the actual capacity of a roadway by eliminating
the intersections potential for restricting traffic. Lastly, although the Model has the
capability to model pedestrian, bicycle and bus transit modes of travel, it has primarily
been used to analyze vehicular movements. To adequately incorporate these modes into
the analyses, PACTS engineers made off-model adjustments. Prior to commencing the
analyses, the PACTS engineers discussed each of these caveats and deemed them to be
acceptable with results well within the expected analytical tolerance.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Theme Package and the Options Tested
Quantitative criteria and a list of more subjective criteria or performance measures
directly related to Destination Tomorrow’s goals and objectives were used to evaluate
the themes and individual options within the themes. With the exception of travel time
and volume changes between selected origins and destinations, the quantitative criteria
were system-wide measures.

Quantitative Criteria
The quantitative criteria were:
1. Number of trips by mode – automobile, walk/bike or bus.
2. Percentage of trips by each mode – mode split.
3. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) – aggregate number of miles driven by all vehicles.
4. Vehicle hours traveled (VHT) – aggregate number of hours spent driving by all
drivers.
5. Travel time changes between selected origins and destinations.
6. Traffic volume changes at selected locations.

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VMT and VHT

VMT and VHT are indicators of the magnitude of change in travel and congestion. If
VMT increases, then the total amount of travel is increasing. This increase is due to an
increase in the number of vehicle trips and/or the length of those trips. VHT increases
indicate more hours are spent driving. Worsening congestion is indicated when VHT
increases by a larger percentage than VMT. VMT and VHT are also reported by
roadway functional class. From a community perspective, shifts in traffic to higher
functionally classified roadways is generally preferable, e.g., a shift in traffic from
collectors to arterials.

All VMT and VHT findings are presented relative to the forecasted increase in VMT of
41 percent and VHT increase of 62 percent from Base 2000 to Base 2025.

Travel Time Analysis

Travel time analysis provides useful information about changes in the time required to
get between key locations, or origins and destinations. Monument Square and the Maine
Mall were selected as the trip origins for comparison purposes because of their
importance as economic and employment centers. Destinations were selected to be
geographically representative of the evening commute from work to home for the
region’s residents. Destinations included:

Route 1 in Scarborough at Dunstan Corner.

Route 22 in South Gorham west of the Route 22/114 overlap.

Route 25 in Gorham west of the Village and west of the probable location of the
Gorham Bypass connections.

Route 77 in the town center of Cape Elizabeth.

Yarmouth, east of I-95.

West Cumberland, near the Maine Turnpike and Route 26/100.

Route 302 in Windham, south of Fosters Corner near Highland Lake.

Quantitative Criteria
The results from each of the tested alternatives were compared to the Year 2025 Base
conditions. Table 4-1 lists the raw values from the PACTS Model for each of the
quantitative criteria against which the results were compared. All values listed are for the
p.m. peak hour values.

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Table 4-1
Values for the Quantitative Criteria
Year 2025 Base (pm peak-hour)
# of Trips Mode Share
# of Vehicle Trips 118,642 n/a

Person Vehicle trips 143,557 91.6%

Walk/bike trips 12,627 8.1%
Bus trips 582 0.4%

Total trips 156,766 100.0%*

Total VMT or VHT

VMT 810,922 peak-hour miles
VHT 27,812 peak-hour hours
*Does not add due to rounding.
Source: PACTS Travel Demand Model

To put these numbers in perspective, the values in Figure 4-1 were converted, using
generally accepted values, to average annual values and average values per household.
Table 4-2 shows the average annual regional and average annual household impacts
resulting from a one percent change in the system. The impacts per household were
based on the 2025 forecast for the number of households in the PACTS model area.

A one percent reduction in the system would result in a reduction of 4.3 million vehicle
trips within the PACTS area during one year. When divided by the population of the
area, this reduction equates to 38 vehicle trips per household. Similar reductions of 220
miles of driving and seven hours of driving time would be realized per household per
year.

Table 4-2
Effects of a One Percent Change in Quantitative Criteria
Quantitative Measure Average Annual Change Average Annual Change
for the Model Area* per Household*
Number of vehicle trips 4,300,000 vehicle trips 38 vehicle trips
VMT 24,000,000 miles 220 miles
VHT 830,000 hours 7 hours
*Values in Table 4-1 were multiplied by a conversion factor of 3000. This factor was based on peak-
hour traffic constituting 10% of total daily traffic, and peak-hour traffic (measured Monday-Friday plus
some holidays) making up 1/300 of annual peak-hour traffic.

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Performance Measures
The performance measure evaluation used a numerical rating from +5 (highest) to –5
(lowest). Ratings were based on a determination of the probable impacts that a strategy
would have on each of several criteria associated with five of the Plan’s six goals.
Performance measures were not developed for the regional focus goal.

The +5 to -5 numerical ratings were:

• +5, strongly positively promotes the objective.
• +3, moderately positively promotes the objective.
• +1, marginally positively promotes the objective.
• 0, neutral or no impact on the objective.
• -1, marginally negatively promotes the objective.
• -3, moderately negatively promotes the objective.
• -5, strongly negatively promotes the objective.

The criteria associated with each goal are listed below.

Goal 1. Economic Development
• Provides transport linkages and modal alternatives to economic centers
• Maintains/improves travel corridor accessibility to economic centers

Goal 2. Mobility, Accessibility and Safety

• Reduces congestion and delay
• Improves safety of transportation system users
• Improves truck circulation
• Provides regional connectivity between transport modes
• Enhances transportation choice and alternatives

Goal 3. Energy Conservation

• Promotes pedestrian, bike and transit modes
• Reduces SOV trips (single occupant vehicle)
• Minimizes energy consumption

Goal 4. Land Use

• Discourages dispersed development throughout the region
• Promotes compact development within communities
• Transportation strategies that protect neighborhoods

Goal 5. Environmental Quality

• Minimizes physical environmental impacts
• Reduces vehicle emissions

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The Transportation Theme Packages: The Tested Alternatives

Interstate Theme

The Interstate Theme analyzed the impacts on and Primary Findings

magnitude of changes in the transportation system that
could be derived from optimizing and/or expanding the • Regional VMT increases and
region’s interstate highways. This theme included regional VHT decreases in
elements such as: each of the five interstate
groupings.

system management changes such as toll system
• The strategies that have the
changes and speed limit changes;
strongest positive benefits in

widening of existing interstate highway segments; terms of congestion/ delay

new and reconfigured interchanges; and reduction typically have the

new interstate highway segments. strongest negative ratings in
terms of land use and
The Interstate Theme was modeled in five different environmental measures.
• There are shifts in traffic
increments or groupings. Grouping One included
from the arterial and collector
primarily system management projects. Grouping Two networks to the interstate
added widening a section of the Maine Turnpike and network.
increased Turnpike speed limits. Grouping Three added
a limited access highway between Gorham and Turnpike
Exit 7. Grouping Four added two additional limited access highways to Buxton and to
the Sebago Lake Region. Grouping Five added a widened I-295 and I-95 to grouping
one. The Groupings are listed in Table 4-3 and Figure 4-1.

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Figure 4-1 Interstate Theme Package

Table 4-3 Interstate Theme Strategies and Groupings

Grouping
Strategies One Two Three Four Five
Increase speed limit on the Maine Turnpike from 55 mph to 60 mph
X X X X X
between 6A and 9 and on Falmouth Spur
Reconfigure Falmouth Spur/I-95/I-295 Interchange in Falmouth X X X X X
Add southbound lane on I-295 between Exit 3 (Westbrook St) and 4
X X X X X
(Route 1) in South Portland
Add northbound lane on I-295 between Exit 6 (Forest Ave) and 7
X X X X X
(Franklin St) in Portland
Regional ring road (keeps the Exit 7 Turnpike Spur as a freeway facility) X X X X X
Reconfigure I-295 Exit 4 in South Portland X X X X X
Ramp reconfiguration of Exit 3/Westbrook Street in South Portland X X X X X
Full interchange at Route 26/100 and Falmouth Spur in Falmouth X X X X X
Regional toll system with new toll plaza per latest Maine Turnpike
Authority concept at Exit 7 (keeping Exit 6A plaza) and removing other X X X X X
plazas on Turnpike and Falmouth Spur.
Widen Turnpike from 6A to 9 to three lanes and increase speeds from 55
X X X
mph to 65 mph in South Portland, Portland and Falmouth
Limited Access Highway to Gorham from Turnpike Exit 7 in South
X X
Portland, Westbrook, Scarborough, Gorham
Limited access road to Buxton X
Limited access road from Turnpike to Sebago Lake Region X
Widen I-295 from Exit 3 (Westbrook Str.) to Bucknam Rd. to three lanes X
Widen I-295 north of Bucknam Road to three lanes X

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Quantitative Evaluation
Table 4-4 summarizes the results of the quantitative evaluation. The modal split (and the
associated number of trips by mode) changed negligibly for each of the five interstate
groupings. In Interstate Grouping Four, which showed the largest modal split change,
there were 400 more person vehicle trips and 400 less walk/bike trips. These changes
resulted in a change to the mode split of 0.2%.

Each of the five groupings resulted in regional VMT increases between 1.2% and 4.9%.
Interstate Grouping Four – that includes the most new miles of new limited access
highway – had the largest VMT increase (4.9%).

Regional VHT decreased in each of the five grouping with the largest decrease shown in
Interstate Grouping Four (-7.4%). The Model showed a larger decrease in VHT with the
shift in population and employment in the Interstate Four/Land Use Response scenario
indicating that this potential shift has some regional transportation benefits.

Table 4-4
Interstate Themes: System-wide Performance Measures
Groupings
Performance Land Use
Measure Interstate Interstate Interstate Interstate Interstate Response-
(change from One Two Three Four Five Interstate
Base 2025) Four/LUR
Regional VMT +1.2% +1.8% +3.1% +4.9% +1.8% +4.4%
Regional VHT -0.2% -1.0% -4.5% -7.4% -0.7% -8.9%
Source: PACTS Travel Demand Model

Each of the theme analyses also examined the impacts of the types of roads in the region,
i.e., by functional classification (interstate, arterial and collector). Figures 4-2A and 4-2B
show the VMT and VHT impacts of the five interstate groupings on each functional class
of roadway. An increasing proportion of travel occurs on the interstate highway system.
Travel on the arterial and collector roadway systems decreases overall relative to the
Base 2025 scenario. The magnitude of these changes is proportional to the capacity
increases on the interstates. Of note, however, is that the arterial and collector roadways
show a larger decrease, on a percentage basis, in VHT than the interstate class indicating
reductions in congestion for these classes of roads.

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Figure 4-2A Figure 4-2B

Performance Criteria Evaluation

As expected, the tested interstate options showed an increase in regional VMT and a
decrease in regional VHT. (This indicates that trip length or the number of trips is
increasing but overall congestion is decreasing.) The strategies that have the strongest
positive benefits in terms of congestion and delay reduction most often also have the
strongest negative ratings in terms of land use and environmental measures. These
options are principally new limited access highways or widening of the existing
interstates for significant lengths. Many of the systems management options such as the
limited widenings for auxiliary travel lanes on I-295 have moderately positive benefits in
terms of congestion and delay reduction and safety and smaller negative impacts on land
use and environmental measures.

Overall, the strategies are neutral to slightly negative with regard to enhancing
transportation choice. By increasing automobile mobility, there is generally less
incentive to use alternative modes of travel (primarily transit). Table 4-5 contains the
performance criteria matrix of the strategies for each of the groupings in the Interstate
Theme.

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Arterial Theme
Primary Findings
The Arterial Theme assessed the • Regional VMT shows minimal system-wide
transportation system impacts and increases in each of the arterial groupings (less
benefits from an expansion of than 1%), with increases on the arterials and
arterial roadway capacity. The decreases on the collectors and interstates.
Arterial Theme was modeled in • The strategies with the strongest performance
measure scores in terms of congestion/delay
three groupings, and included
reduction also most often have the weakest scores
elements such as: with respect to land use and environmental

reconfiguration of existing measures.
arterial roadway segments • Regional VHT decreases in each of the arterial
within existing roadway groupings (approximately 5%).
widths;

widening of existing arterial roadway segments; and

new arterial roadway segments.
The arterial theme package in Figure 4-3 and the strategies are listed in Table 4-6.

Table 4-6
Arterial Theme Strategies and Groupings
Grouping
Strategy One Two Three
Convert Route 703 between Exit 7 Turnpike Spur & and I-295 to arterial
roadway without the spur extension to Running Hill Road in South Portland X X X
(see below)
Widen Spring/Cummings Road & Congress St/County Road segments, in
X X X
South Portland, Westbrook, Scarborough and Portland
Reconfigure/widen three Portland arterials (Brighton, Forest and
X X X
Washington Avenues), in Portland
Widen Riverside Street at Exit 8 of the Turnpike, in Portland X X X
Widen Route 1 from Saco town line to Dunstan Corner/Payne Road, in
X X X
Scarborough
Gorham Bypass, Phase I, in Gorham X X
Southwest overlap bypass from Running Hill Road to Routes 25/114, South
X X
Portland, Scarborough and Gorham
Widen Running Hill Road (with Turnpike Exit 7 Spur extension), in South
X X
Portland
Gorham Industrial Park Road, in Gorham X X
I-295 Connector Road, phase II extension west to Congress Street, in
X X
Portland
Larrabee Road extension to Spring Street at Eisenhower Drive, in
X X
Westbrook
Northbound Route 1 On-ramp to Scarborough Connector, in Scarborough X X
Construct Highland Ave connector to Rumery Road/Route 1, in South
X X
Portland
Falmouth Spur extension arterial to Gorham/Moshers Corner, in Falmouth,
X
Westbrook, Gorham
Arterial roadway from Maine Turnpike to Route 302/Moshers Corner in
X
Windham

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Figure 4-3
Arterial Theme Package

Quantitative Evaluation
The modal split (and the associated number of trips by mode) changed negligibly for each
of the three arterial groupings. Arterial Grouping Three showed the largest change in
modal split; there were 300 fewer walk/bike trips and bus trips were essentially
unchanged. This resulted in a change to the modal split of 0.1%.

Table 4-7 presents the system-wide changes in VMT and VHT for each of the arterial
groupings. Each of the groupings shows a decrease in regional VHT, from a low of
–1.6% to a high of –5.1%. These potential reductions in VHT are realized despite a
minimal increase in regional VMT.

Table 4-7
Arterial Themes: System-wide Performance Measures
Groupings
Performance Measure Arterial Arterial Arterial Land Use Response-
(change from Base 2025) One Two Three Arterial Three/LUR
Regional VMT 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Regional VHT -1.6% -3.2% -5.0% -5.1%
Source: PACTS Travel Demand Model

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Figures 4-4A and 4-4B present data on the impacts that each of the arterial groupings
have on the regional distribution of VMT and VHT by functional classification. Figure
4-4A shows that a modestly larger proportion of regional travel occurs on arterial
roadways, with the size of the increase being proportional to the increase in capacity.
VHT decreases slightly across all functional classes with the largest decreases for the
collector road network.

Performance Criteria Evaluation

Most of the arterial strategies provide moderate to marginal positive benefits with regard
to the economic development and mobility and safety related criteria. Similar to the
interstate strategies, the arterial strategies that are the most effective at reducing
congestion and /or delay may also have the most negative impacts in the environmental
and land use performance measures. Table 4-8 includes the performance criteria
evaluation of each of the strategies in each of the arterial groupings.

Figure 4-4A Figure 4-4B

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Transit Theme

The Transit Theme analyzed the transportation system benefits and impacts that could be
derived from a variety of transit strategies. Elements in the Transit Theme included:

increasing service frequency on existing fixed-routes; Primary Findings

adding fixed-route service to new areas;

extending existing routes to serve activity centers; • The Transit Theme is the only

enhancing bus service along six major regional Transportation Theme that
corridors to Bus Rapid Transit standards including reduces both regional VMT
new alignments for exclusive bus use, dedicated bus and regional VHT. (The
Interstate Theme and Arterial
lanes on arterial roadways, automatic vehicle Theme both increase regional
location, traffic signal priority/pre-emption, bus VMT.)
shelters and fast fare collection; • Changes in traffic volumes are

passenger rail along four corridors; and generally less than five

circulator rail/transit on the Portland peninsula. percent and broadly
distributed across the roadway
system.
The Transit Theme was modeled in four groupings; these
groupings are displayed in Figures 4-5 through 4-7.
Groupings 3A and 3B add bus rapid transit and commuter rail, respectively, to the
expanded bus transit system. Table 4-9 lists each of the strategies for each of the
groupings.

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Figure 4-5

Bus Transit: Grouping 1 & 2

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Figure 4-6
Transit Theme Grouping 3A: Bus Rapid Transit

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Figure 4-7
Transit Theme Grouping 3B: Rail

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Table 4-9
Transit Theme Strategies and Groupings
Grouping
Strategy One Two Three- Three-
BRT Rail
Double existing route frequencies on METRO routes X X X X
Double existing route frequencies on South Portland Bus
X X X X
Service (SPBS) routes
Double existing route frequencies on Biddeford Saco Old
X X X X
Orchard Beach routes
Extend SPBS route from Maine Mall to WalMart, in South
X X X
Portland and Scarborough
Extend METRO service to West Falmouth
X X X
Crossing/Turnpike Exit 10 (Portland and Falmouth)
New ‘Outer Ring’ Metro route from Prides Corner to
Downtown Westbrook to Maine Mall (Westbrook and South X X X
Portland)
New ‘Inner Ring’ METRO route from Route 1 Falmouth to
X X X
Ocean Avenue to Pulse (Falmouth and Portland)
Extension of METRO Route 4 along Route 25 to Gorham
X X X
Village and new Park and Ride lots (Gorham and Westbrook)
New service connecting to METRO Route 2/FAST service
X X X
from Windham to Prides Corner (Windham and Westbrook)
New Cape Elizabeth Commuter Service from Shore
Road/Route 77 in Cape Elizabeth to Knightville/ Millcreek in
X X X
South Portland and Downtown Portland (Cape Elizabeth,
South Portland and Portland)
New express bus service from Brunswick/Freeport to
X X X
Portland (Brunswick, Freeport and Portland)
Port Shuttle circulator between passenger transportation
X X X
centers (Portland)
Bus Rapid Transit along: Route 1 north to Falmouth; Route
26/100 to Cumberland; Route 302 to Windham; Route 25 to
X
west of Gorham Village; Route 22 to Hollis Center; along
Route 1 south to Biddeford/Saco.
Passenger Rail: north to Brunswick; north to
Lewiston/Auburn; west to Gorham/Little Falls; south to X
Biddeford/Saco
Portland peninsula circulator rail or shuttle (Portland) X

Quantitative Evaluation
Table 4-10 presents the system-wide quantitative evaluation for each of the transit
groupings. All four variations of Transit Grouping Three show a more than four-fold
increase in the number of transit trips during the p.m. peak-hour. Transit Grouping One
and Two each show a more modest increase in the number of transit trips. Transit
Grouping Three: BRT/LUR shows the greatest increase in transit trips (+2600), reflecting
a higher proportion of growth in the urban core.

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The four variations of Transit Grouping Three each showed a greater than one percentage
point gain in modal split. Under each of these grouping the transit modal split increased
from 0.4% in the 2025 Base to between 1.6% and 2.0%. The increases would be higher
in the specific corridors where transit is located.

The Transit Theme was the only theme analyzed that showed a decrease in both regional
VMT and VHT. The four variations of Transit Grouping Three showed the most
promising results among the transit themes.

Table 4-10
Transit Themes: System-wide Performance Measures
Strategy Groupings
Performance Transit Transit
Measure Transit Transit Three – Three –
(change from Transit Transit Three - Three - BRT/ Rail/
Base 2025) One Two BRT Rail LUR LUR
Change in
Number of +170 +560 +2300 +2000 +2600 +2300
Transit Trips
Mode Split
(Percentage
Point Increase +0.1% +0.3% +1.4% +1.2% +1.6% +1.4%
by Transit
Mode)
Regional VMT -0.1% -0.2% -2.4% -1.9% -3.0% -2.5%
Regional VHT -0.5% -0.8% -4.4% -2.5% -5.9% -4.1%
Source: PACTS Travel Demand Model

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The region-wide reductions in VMT and VHT were also exhibited on each functional
class of roadway. These reductions are shown in Figure 4-8A and 4-8B. The reduction
in VHT for the Transit Grouping Three: Bus Rapid Transit is of the same magnitude as
Interstate Grouping Three and Arterial Grouping Three.

Figure 4-8A Figure 4-8B

Performance Criteria Evaluation

Table 4-11 includes the performance criteria evaluation matrix for each of the strategies
in each of the transit groupings.

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Compact Land Use Theme

Compact land use is a land use pattern that is less

Key Findings
consumptive in its use of land compared to suburban-
• Most effective theme at
style development. Traditional New England villages, system-wide VMT reductions
town centers and downtowns are examples of a compact (-4%). Reductions across all
land use pattern. Most development pre-dating 1950 was road classes.
in a compact form. • Third most effective at
system-wide VHT reductions
Over the last 40 years, a majority of development has (-6%). Reductions highest on
collector and local roads.
occurred outside of these traditional centers in the form
• Reductions in traffic volumes
of suburban commercial development (regional shopping are widely distributed and
malls, strip retail development, office parks) and generally less than 5 percent at
contemporary residential subdivisions. The land use specific locations.
pattern for much of this development has been to spread
individual homes and commercial developments over a
significantly larger area when compared to the traditional
compact form of development.

The Compact Land Use Theme was developed to answer the question: “Are there
transportation benefits to a regional development pattern in a compact land use form?”
To help answer this question, the PACTS model was used to evaluate a regional compact
land use development scenario. In this scenario, 50 percent of the population and
employment growth forecasted for each community was shifted within that community to
one or more identified growth areas. The total amount of population and employment
growth for each community remained the same. The growth areas are primarily those
areas are identified within the community’s comprehensive plan or other development
plans. In some cases, residential growth was shifted to areas that have high amounts of
employment but very little nearby housing to increase the amount of mixed-use
development. These “compact development areas” are shown in Figure 4-9. A summary
of the changes in system-wide VMT and VHT are shown in Table 4-12. Appendix G
provides the relevant data from this analysis.

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Figure 4-9
Compact Land Use Development Areas

Table 4-12
Compact Land Use Scenario Benefits
Performance
Measure Change
Regional Vehicle
-4%
Miles Traveled
Regional Vehicle
-6%
Hours Traveled
Source: PACTS Travel Demand Model.

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Selected Travel Times for Key Origins and Destinations

The time required to travel between two locations is an important indicator of the relative
level of congestion. This section summarizes the results of the travel time analysis for 14
selected pairs of origins and destinations. The two origins – the Maine Mall and
Downtown Portland were selected due to their prevalence as retail and employment
centers. Destinations were selected to be geographically representative of the evening
commute home. Appendix F provides the results of this analysis.

Key findings for changes between measure the 2000 Base and 2025 Base, and between
the 2025 Base and each of the transportation themes analyzed are described below. The
analysis is intended to provide an order of magnitude of the forecasted automobile travel-
time savings based on the implementation of the various options and themes tested. The
travel times were derived from the PACTS Travel Demand Model.

Base Scenarios: Change from 2000 to 2025.

Travel times increased by 20 percent or more for six of the 14 O-D pairs. The highest
percentage increases in travel time were forecasted for Monument Square to Windham
(+28%), Maine Mall to Windham (27%), Maine Mall to west of Gorham Village (+26%),
and Monument Square to west of Gorham Village (+28%).

Change between Base 2025 and Interstate Theme Groupings.

Interstate Groupings Three and Four showed the largest travel time-savings for several of
the O-D pairs. Interstate Grouping Three showed a 12-minute time-savings (39 to 27
minutes) between the Maine Mall area and west of the Gorham village, and an 11-minute
savings (46 to 35 minutes) between Monument Square and the same Gorham destination.

Interstate Groupings One and Two had slight decreases in travel time for half of the 14
O-D pairs. Interstate Grouping Two had the largest decrease (8.5%) for a single O-D
pair. This O-D pair from the Maine Mall to Yarmouth shows the benefits of the regional
toll strategy in conjunction with the widening of the Maine Turnpike from Exit 6A to
Exit 10.

Travel time savings for Interstate Grouping Five were generally the smallest although
larger time-savings are shown for trips destined to areas in the I-95 corridor from
downtown Portland, as would be expected.

Change between Base 2025 and Arterial Theme Groupings.

Arterial Grouping One revealed small travel time-savings for destinations away from the
interstate corridor.

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There were travel time-savings in 10 of the 14 O-D pairs in Arterial Grouping Two. The
largest time-savings were from the Maine Mall to South Gorham (7 minutes), Monument
Square to South Gorham (5 minutes), the Maine Mall to South Gorham (4 minutes) and
the Maine Mall to Gorham, west of the Village (4 minutes).

The travel time-savings were larger in Arterial Grouping Three than in Interstate
Grouping Two (with the largest decreases seen for Windham destinations) reflecting the
new arterial roadway in this package.

Change between Base 2025 and Transit Theme Groupings.

The travel time figures reflect automobile travel times, not transit travel times. All of the
Transit Themes have the smallest overall impact on automobile travel times for the O-D
pairs analyzed. Most of the changes are negligible. However, those using transit,
particularly the services described in Transit Groupings 3A and 3B, would experience
sizable time-savings due to the nature of bus rapid transit (BRT) and passenger rail.

Facility-Specific Impacts of the Transportation Themes

An analysis of the facility-specific impacts of the strategies within each of the four
transportation themes was undertaken to estimate the traffic volume changes at specific
locations throughout the region. The results of this analysis provided a more in-depth
understanding of the potential impacts of the strategies tested, and were used in the
development of the “best of” theme package and in the final development of the
strategies and recommendations of Destination Tomorrow. To help preserve the
readability of this report, the results of the facility-specific impacts and associated data
are included as Appendices H-1 and H-2.

Summary of Key Findings of the Alternatives Analysis

Mode Split and Number of Trips
• All Interstate and Arterial Themes increase the number of vehicle trips relative to
Base 2025. Overall mode share remains fairly stable though, at 91.5 (+/- 0.3)
percent of person trips.
• Transit Grouping Three: BRT and Transit Grouping Three: Rail both result in a
four-fold increase in the number of transit trips (from 600 to 2,000-2,600) over
Base 2025 levels. As expected, the BRT grouping with “Response Land Use”
showed the largest increases in transit trips (3,155). This grouping also had the
largest gain in transit mode split, a gain from 0.4% to 2.0%.
• Walk/bike mode split essentially remained throughout the interstate, arterial and
transit themes and scenarios.
Table 4-13 shows the mode splits for the current and future base conditions and for each
of the theme groupings.

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VMT
Tables 4-14 and 4-15 display the system-wide changes in VMT and VHT, respectively,
for the current and future base conditions, and for each of the theme groupings.
• VMT increases or decreases are modest (0%-9%) for all theme and scenarios
when compared to the forecasted 41 percent growth in VMT between Base 2000
and Base 2025.
• All Interstate Groupings increase system-wide VMT. Interstate Grouping Four
has the largest VMT increase (4.9%), but shifts a high percentage of traffic to
interstate highways (33% increase in interstate VMT) and reduces arterial and
collector road VMT by 12 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
• All Arterial Groupings modestly increase system-wide VMT; arterial VMT
increases while interstate and collector VMT decreases.
• The Transit Themes are the only groupings that reduce system-wide VMT.
Transit Grouping Three: BRT showed the largest VMT decrease: -2.4% for fixed
land use and –3.0% for response land use.

VHT
• VHT reduction is modest in all themes when compared to the forecasted 62
percent growth in system-wide VHT between Base 2000 and Base 2025.
• Interstate Grouping Four (both fixed and response land use) has the largest
reduction in system-wide VHT (7.4% and 8.9%, respectively) indicating the
largest congestion-reducing benefit. In these two scenarios, VHT on the interstate
highways increased approximately 30 percent, and decreased on arterial and
collector roads by 15 to 20 percent.
• The Arterial Groupings broadly distribute VHT reductions across the three road
classifications.
• The Transit Grouping Three: BRT and Transit Grouping Three: Rail with
Response Land Use showed greater decreases in VHT than with fixed land use.
The reduction in VHT for the Transit Grouping Three: Bus Rapid Transit is also
of the same magnitude as Interstate Grouping Three and Arterial Grouping three.

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Traffic Volumes
• Interstate Groupings Two and Three showed the greatest benefit to I-295 volumes
on the Portland Peninsula, and reduced volumes to near the Year 2000 Base, or
current traffic volumes.
• Interstate Groupings Two, Three and Four significantly increase volumes on the
Maine Turnpike between Exit 7 and 10 due to the Turnpike widening. These
groupings also significantly increase volumes on the Falmouth Spur.
• Interstate Groupings Three and Four show the greatest volume benefits to Route
25/Gorham Village and the Route 22/114 Overlap.
• Route 25/Gorham Village received significantly less benefit from Arterial
Groupings Two and Three (contain short Gorham bypass) than from Interstate
Grouping Three and Four (contain an 8-mile toll road). In Arterial Grouping
Three, the new road connecting the Falmouth Spur to Route 25 virtually negates
the benefits of the Gorham Bypass on Route 25 traffic volumes through the
Gorham Village.
• Interstate Groupings Two, Three and Four and Arterial Groupings Two and Three
have the ability to shift fairly large volumes of traffic within the corridors where
strategies are located. The Interstate Groupings show the largest shifts.
• The Transit Groupings benefits to traffic volumes are broadly distributed and
generally less than five percent (5%) at specific locations.

The Recommended “Best of” Transportation Package

Based upon the alternatives analysis, a “best of” transportation strategy package was
developed. The package includes transportation strategies from each of the themes. The
potential benefits of some of the strategies in this package were enhanced when
combined with other strategies in the package. In this way, the total “best of” package
showed greater overall potential benefits than implementing individual strategies. In
addition, the “best of” package contains improvements to the bicycle and pedestrian
networks, freight system, and ferry system that are not project-specific. The
recommended “best of” package is shown in Figure 4-10A (2004-2009) and Figure 4-
10B (2010-2025). The individual strategies are identified in Table 4-16.

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Figure 4-10A – “Best of” Theme Package: 2004-2009

Figure 4-10B – “Best of” Theme Package: 2010-2025

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Table 4-16
“Best of” Theme Package Strategies
Strategy Location Municipality
Highway Strategies
Implement Regional Toll System Maine Turnpike Scarborough, So.
on Maine Turnpike Portland, Falmouth
Increase Turnpike speed limits to Maine Turnpike: Exit 6A to 9, Falmouth So. Portland, Portland,
65 mph Spur Falmouth
New Interchange Forest Avenue Interchange at I-295 Portland
I-295 Auxiliary Lanes – Add third Forest Avenue/Exit 6 to Franklin Street Portland
lane, north and southbound Arterial/Exit 7
Westbrook Street/Exit 3 to Route 1/Exit 4 So. Portland
Gorham Village Bypass Route 114 to Route 25 Gorham
Route 25/Moshers Corner to Route 25 Gorham
Extend Turnpike Exit 7 to Maine Turnpike to Running Hill Road So. Portland
Running Hill Road
Widen Running Hill Road to four Spring Street/Cummings Road to Route So. Portland,
lanes 114 Scarborough
Widen Cummings Road and Eisenhower Drive to Payne Road Westbrook, So. Portland,
Spring Street to four lanes Scarborough
Extend Larrabee Road Westbrook Arterial to Eisenhower Drive Westbrook
New Industrial Park Road Route 25/Moshers Corner to Saco Gorham, Westbrook
Street/Eisenhower Drive
New Interchange at Exit 3 of I- Vicinity of Westbrook Street at So. Portland
295, South Portland Broadway
Widen Turnpike to 6 lanes Maine Turnpike: Exit 6A to Exit 9 So. Portland, Portland,
Falmouth
New I-295 Northbound Ramp I-295 at Exit 4/Route 1 So. Portland
Transit Strategies
New Bus Service Prides Corner to Dunstan Corner via Westbrook, So. Portland,
Westbrook Downtown, Maine Mall, Oak Scarborough
Hill
Bus Service Extensions of Extend METRO service to Turnpike Exit Falmouth, Portland
Existing Route 10/Falmouth Crossing
Extend METRO service to So. Portland,
Walmart/Payne Road Scarborough
New Bus Service Gorham to Portland via Westbrook Gorham, Westbrook
Dunstan Corner to Portland peninsula Scarborough, So.
Portland, Portland
New Commuter Bus Service North Windham to Portland via Windham, Westbrook,
Westbrook Portland
New Passenger Rail Service Portland to Brunswick Portland, Yarmouth,
Freeport, Brunswick
Bus Operational Improvements – Routes 22/25/302 Portland, Westbrook
15 min. frequency
Other Systems
Bicycle-Pedestrian Improvements Region-wide
Freight/Intermodal Improvements Region-wide
Ferry Improvements Portland/CBITD
Access Management Region-wide
Intermodal Hubs/Terminals Region-wide
Intersection Improvements Region-wide
Arterial Investments Region-wide

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Figures 4-11A and 4-11B show VMT and VHT benefits of the “Best of Theme” relative
to the Base 2025 (relative to Base 2000) and for three other theme packages: Interstate 4,
Arterial 3 and Transit 3/Rail. The Hybrid strategy package is forecasted to increase
regional VMT by 2 percent and reduce VHT by 3 percent. These changes are against the
backdrop of forecasted VMT and VHT increases of 41 percent and 62 percent,
respectively.

Figure 4-11A Figure 4-11B

“Best of” theme package: “Best of” theme package:
Changes in VMT Changes in VHT

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