Conditional

Definition:

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has
already occurred.

It is denoted by P(A|B), which means the probability of event A occurring given that event B has
occurred.

Formula:

P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B), where P(B) is not equal to 0

Here,

- P(A and B) is the probability that both events A and B occur.-

P(B) is the probability that event B occurs.

Page 1
Probability Problem Solution
Question:
Two integers are selected at random from 1 to 11. If the sum is even, find the probability
that both the numbers are odd. (Apply the "AND" concept)

Solution:
Step 1: Understand the sample space

The numbers from 1 to 11 are:

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11

There are 11 numbers in total. We need to select 2 integers at random without replacement.
Total number of ways to choose 2 integers from 11:
C(11, 2) = 11 * 10 / 2 = 55

Step 2: Define favorable outcomes (sum is even)

Sum of two numbers is even if:

- Both are even (even + even = even), OR
- Both are odd (odd + odd = even)

From 1 to 11:
- Even numbers: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 → 5 even numbers
- Odd numbers: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 → 6 odd numbers

Number of ways to choose 2 even numbers: C(5, 2) = 5 * 4 / 2 = 10

Number of ways to choose 2 odd numbers: C(6, 2) = 6 * 5 / 2 = 15

Total favorable outcomes where sum is even: 10 (even, even) + 15 (odd, odd) = 25

Step 3: Find the required probability

We are given that the sum is even. We need to find the probability that both numbers are
odd.

This is a conditional probability:

P(both odd | sum is even) = P(both odd AND sum is even) / P(sum is even)

Note: "both odd AND sum is even" is the same as "both odd", since odd + odd = even.

So, P(both odd | sum is even) = 15 / 25 = 3/5

Final Answer:
The probability that both numbers are odd given their sum is even is 3/5.
Complete Solution: Section A, Question No. 3

Q.No.3: What are the expected frequencies of 2×2 contingency table? [CO’s 2 (apply and
concept)]

Answer:
A 2×2 contingency table is a type of table in a matrix format that displays the frequency
distribution of the variables. It is used to examine the relationship between two categorical
variables.

A generic 2×2 contingency table is structured as follows:

Column 1 Column 2 Row Total
Row 1 a b a+b
Row 2 c d c+d
Column Total a+c b+d N

The expected frequency for each cell is calculated using the formula:

E_ij = (Row Total_i × Column Total_j) / Grand Total

From the question, the marginal totals are given as:

Row Totals: 6, 6 (Total = 12)

Column Totals: 2, 10 (Total = 12)

Grand Total (N) = 12

Using the expected frequency formula, we calculate:

E₁₁ = (6 × 2) / 12 = 12 / 12 = 1

E₁₂ = (6 × 10) / 12 = 60 / 12 = 5

E₂₁ = (6 × 2) / 12 = 12 / 12 = 1

E₂₂ = (6 × 10) / 12 = 60 / 12 = 5

So, the final expected frequency table is:

12 2 10
6 1 5
6 1 5
 SECTION:B Probability
Distribution Analysis
Ques.1 A random variable X has the following Distribution
Given Distribution:
X -2 -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.1 K 0.2 2k 0.3 K
Determine:

(i) K (ii) Mean (iii) Variance

Solution:

Step 1: Find k

Sum of all probabilities must be 1:

0.1 + k + 0.2 + 2k + 0.3 + k = 1

=> 0.6 + 4k = 1

=> 4k = 0.4

=> k = 0.1

Step 2: Find the Mean (E(X))

E(X) = Σ [x * P(x)]

= (-2)(0.1) + (-1)(0.1) + (0)(0.2) + (1)(0.2) + (2)(0.3) + (3)(0.1)

= -0.2 – 0.1 + 0 + 0.2 + 0.6 + 0.3 = 0.8

E(X) = 0.8

Step 3: Find the Variance (Var(X))

Var(X) = E(X²) – [E(X)]²

E(X²) = (-2)²(0.1) + (-1)²(0.1) + (0)²(0.2) + (1)²(0.2) + (2)²(0.3) + (3)²(0.1)

= 4(0.1) + 1(0.1) + 0 + 1(0.2) + 4(0.3) + 9(0.1)

= 0.4 + 0.1 + 0 + 0.2 + 1.2 + 0.9 = 2.8

Var(X) = 2.8 – (0.8)² = 2.8 – 0.64 = 2.16

Var(X) = 2.16
Q.NO.2 A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is

six. Find the probability that it is actually six.

Let:

T = Man tells the truth

L = Man lies

P(T) = 3/4

P(L) = 1 - P(T) = 1/4

Let E1 = Event that six comes on the die

Let E2 = Event that other than six comes on the die Let

A = Event that man reports a six

We need to find: P(E1 | A)

Using Bayes' Theorem:

P(E1 | A) = [P(E1) * P(A | E1)] / [P(E1) * P(A | E1) + P(E2) * P(A | E2)]

P(E1) = 1/6

P(E2) = 5/6

If six occurs and he tells the truth, then he reports six:

P(A | E1) = P(T) = 3/4

If six did not occur, he must lie to report six:

 P(A | E2) = P(L) * (1/5) = (1/4) * (1/5) = 1/20

Now,

P(E1 | A) = (1/6 * 3/4) / [(1/6 * 3/4) + (5/6 * 1/20)] =

(3/24) / [(3/24) + (5/120)]

= (3/24) / [(15/120) + (5/120)]

= (3/24) / (20/120)

= (3/24) * (120/20)

= (3 * 5) / 1

= 15 / 24

=5/8

Answer: The probability that it is actually six is **5/8**.

Ques:3 Fit a second degree parabola in the following data ;

X 0 1 2 3 4
Y 1 4 10 17 30

The equation of the form:

y = ax² + bx + c

Step 1: Set up the normal equations

We assume the parabola: y

= ax² + bx + c

To find a, b, and c, we use the method of solving the system of equations based on:

• ∑y = a∑x² + b∑x + c∑1

• ∑xy = a∑x³ + b∑x² + c∑x

• ∑x²y = a∑x⁴ + b∑x³ + c∑x²

Let’s compute all the required values:

x y X2 X3 X4 xy x²y
0 1 0 0 0 0 0
1 4 1 1 1 4 4
 2 10 4 8 16 20 40
3 17 9 27 81 51 153
4 30 16 64 256 120 480

Now sum them:

• ∑x = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10

• ∑y = 1 + 4 + 10 + 17 + 30 = 62

• ∑x² = 0 + 1 + 4 + 9 + 16 = 30

• ∑x³ = 0 + 1 + 8 + 27 + 64 = 100

• ∑x⁴ = 0 + 1 + 16 + 81 + 256 = 354

• ∑xy = 0 + 4 + 20 + 51 + 120 = 195

• ∑x²y = 0 + 4 + 40 + 153 + 480 = 677

Step 2: Write the equations Using

the formulas:

1. 62 = a(30) + b(10) + 5c

2. 195 = a(100) + b(30) + c(10)

3. 677 = a(354) + b(100) + c(30)

These are the normal equations:

1. 30a + 10b + 5c = 62

2. 100a + 30b + 10c = 195

3. 354a + 100b + 30c = 677

Step 3: Solve the system

Solving this system (done using a calculator or matrix method), we get:

• a = 1.79

• b = 0.10

• c = 1.14

Final Answer:

The fitted parabola is: y

= 1.79x² + 0.10x + 1.14
 SECTION : B

Que 4: Fit a poisson distribution on the following

: data

X 0 1 2 3 4

F 192 100 24 3 1

Solution:
To fit a Poisson
distribution
to the given data, we need to
follow these steps:

* Step 1: Calculate Mean (λ) of the distribution

The Poisson distribution has a single parameter:
λ (lambda)
, the mean.

λ=∑(X⋅F)∑ F
We estimate λ using the sample mean:

Let's compute:

• ∑(X⋅F)=0 ⋅192+1⋅100+2⋅24+3⋅3+4⋅1 = 0+100+48+9+4=161

• Total Frequency ∑F=192+100+24+3+1=320

λ=161 / 320=0.503125

📈 Step 2: Use Poisson Formula to find Expected Frequencies

⋅
The Poisson probability formula is:
P(X=x)=e −λ λx/ x!

⋅Total Frequency
Now compute the expected frequencies :
Expected frequency=P(X=x)
Using λ=0.5031, and N= 320:

We can calculate:

P(0)=e ⋅0.5031
−0.5031 0/
0!=0.6047
⋅0.5031
•
−0.5031 1/
• P(1)=e 1!=0.3045