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This lecture covers the concepts of random variables, including their definitions, cumulative distribution functions (CDF), and probability density functions (PDF). It also discusses independent random variables, multivariate distributions, and the expectation and variance of random variables, along with their properties. Additionally, the moment generating function (MGF) is introduced, highlighting its significance in relation to the moments of random variables.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
1 views

lec23 random variable - Copy

This lecture covers the concepts of random variables, including their definitions, cumulative distribution functions (CDF), and probability density functions (PDF). It also discusses independent random variables, multivariate distributions, and the expectation and variance of random variables, along with their properties. Additionally, the moment generating function (MGF) is introduced, highlighting its significance in relation to the moments of random variables.

Uploaded by

gadakrish4
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 16

Lecture 23: Random Variables, Expectation, and

Variance
Introduction to Mathematical Modeling, Spring 2025

Lecturer: Yijun Dong

Helpful reference: All of Statistics by Larry Wasserman §2


Random variables

Definition (Random variable)


Given a probability space (!, A, P), a random variable is a mapping

X :!→R (1)

that assigns a real number X (ω) to each outcome ω ↑ !.

• Example: Flip a fair coin twice. Each ω ↑ ! = {HH, HT , TH, TT } can


be represented as a two-bit binary number X = X1 + 2X2 where Xi = 0
if tails and Xi = 1 if heads:

X (HH) = 3, X (HT ) = 2, X (TH) = 1, X (TT ) = 0.

• Cumulative distribution function (CDF) is a function FX : R → [0, 1]:

FX (x) = Pr[X ↭ x],

1
Random variables

Definition (Random variable)


Given a probability space (!, A, P), a random variable is a mapping

X :!→R (1)

that assigns a real number X (ω) to each outcome ω ↑ !.

• Cumulative distribution function (CDF) is a function FX : R → [0, 1]:

FX (x) = Pr[X ↭ x],

• Probability density function (PDF) is a function fX : R → [0, 1] s.t.


! b ! x
Pr(a < X < b) = fX (x)dx ↓ a, b ↑ R, and FX (x) = fX (t)dt.
a →↑

d
In particular, fX (x) = dx FX (x) for all x where FX is di”erentiable .

1
Examples: discrete random variables

Discrete random variable: X : ! → Z with PDF fX : Z → [0, 1]

• Bernoulli random variable with parameter p ↑ [0, 1]:




p
 if x = 1,
fX (x) = 1↔p if x = 0,


0 otherwise.

• Binomial random variable with parameters n ↑ N and p ↑ [0, 1]:


& '
n x
fX (x) = p (1 ↔ p)n→x .
x

• Poisson random variable with parameter ε > 0:


εx e →ω
fX (x) = .
x!

2
Examples: continuous random variables

Continuous random variable: X : ! → R with PDF fX : R → [0, 1]

• Uniform random variable supported over a closed interval [a, b]:


(
1
b→a if x ↑ [a, b],
fX (x) =
0 otherwise.

• Gaussian random variable with mean µ ↑ R and variance ϑ 2 (ϑ > 0):


1 →
(x→µ)2
fX (x) = ↗ e 2ω 2 .
2ϖϑ 2

• Exponential random variable with parameter ε:


(
εe →ωx if x ↘ 0,
fX (x) =
0 otherwise.

3
Independent random variables

Definition (Independent random variables)


Two random variables X and Y are independent if for all x, y ↑ R,

Pr(X = x, Y = y ) = Pr(X = x) Pr(Y = y ). (2)

Example: Let X1 , · · · , Xn be independent Bernoulli random variables with


)n
parameter p ↑ [0, 1]. Then, X = i=1 Xi is a binomial random variable with
parameters n and p.
Proof: For any x ↑ N, let C(n, x) = {S ≃ [n] : |S| = x} be the set of all
subsets of [n] with size x. Then,
fX (x) = Pr(X1 + · · · + Xn = x)
*
= Pr(Xi = 1 ↓ i ↑ S) Pr(Xi = 0 ↓ i ↑
/ S)
S↓C(n,x)
* & '
n x
= p x (1 ↔ p)n→x = p (1 ↔ p)n→x .
x
S↓C(n,x)
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Multivariate distributions

• Random vector: X = (X1 , ..., Xn ) where X1 , ..., Xn are random variables.


• The joint distribution of (X1 , ..., Xn ) gives the PDF of X,
fX : Rn → [0, 1]:
fX (x) = f(X1 ,...,Xn ) (x1 , ..., xn ) = Pr(X1 = x1 , ..., Xn = xn ).

• If X1 , ..., Xn are independent, then


n
+
fX (x) = fXi (xi ).
i=1

• The marginal distribution of Xi is the PDF fXi : R → [0, 1] such that


!
fXi (x) = fX (x1 , · · · , xi→1 , x, xi+1 , . . . , xn ) dx1 · · · dxi→1 dxi+1 · · · dxn .
Rn→1

5
Multivariate distributions

• Random vector: X = (X1 , ..., Xn ) where X1 , ..., Xn are random variables.


• The joint distribution of (X1 , ..., Xn ) gives the PDF of X,
fX : Rn → [0, 1]:
fX (x) = f(X1 ,...,Xn ) (x1 , ..., xn ) = Pr(X1 = x1 , ..., Xn = xn ).

• If X1 , ..., Xn are independent, then


n
+
fX (x) = fXi (xi ).
i=1

• The marginal distribution of Xi is the PDF fXi : R → [0, 1] such that


!
fXi (x) = fX (x1 , · · · , xi→1 , x, xi+1 , . . . , xn ) dx1 · · · dxi→1 dxi+1 · · · dxn .
Rn→1
• Example: a Gaussian random vector X ↑ Rn with mean µ ↑ Rn and
covariance ! ↑ Rn↔n with ! ⇐ 0 is given by
& '
1 1
fX (x) = , exp ↔ (x ↔ µ)T !→1 (x ↔ µ) .
(2ϖ)n det(!) 2
5
Expectation, Variance, and Moments

• For a continuous random variable X with PDF fX , the expectation of


X is
!
E[X ] = x fX (x) dx.
R
• For a discrete random variable X with PDF fX , the expectation of X
is
*
E[X ] = x fX (x).
x↓Z

• For a continuous random variable X with PDF fX and µ = E[X ]:


• The variance of X is
!
V[X ] = E[(X → µ)2 ] = (x → µ)2 fX (x) dx.
R
• For k = 1, 2, · · · , the k-th moment of X is
!
E[X k ] = x k fX (x) dx.
R

6
Properties of expectation

• (Linearity) For any random variables X1 , ..., Xn and constants


a1 , ..., an ↑ R, - n .
* * n
E ai Xi = ai E [Xi ] (3)
i=1 i=1

• If X1 , ..., Xn are independent random variables, then


- n . n
+ +
E Xi = E [Xi ] (4)
i=1 i=1

7
Properties of variance

• V(X ) = E[X 2 ] ↔ E[X ]2

• V(aX + b) = a2 V(X )

• if X1 , ..., Xn are independent random variables


- n . n
* *
V ai Xi = ai2 V [Xi ] (5)
i=1 i=1

8
Supplementary material: moment generating function

Definition (Moment generating function (MGF))


The moment generating function of a random variable X is defined as
!
MX (t) = E[e tX ] = e tx fX (x) dx, t ↑ R.
R

Properties:
• By Taylor expansion,
* tk↑
t2
MX (t) = 1 + tE[X ] + E[X 2 ] + · · · = E[X k ].
2 k!
k=0
Assuming all moments are well-defined, for any k ↑ N,
dk
dt k M X (t) = E[X k
].
• If X1 , ..., Xn are independent random variables with MGFs MX1 , ..., MXn ,
)n
then the MGF of Y = i=1 Xi is
MY (t) = MX1 (t)MX2 (t) · · · MXn (t).
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