CHAPTER – 1

Introduction

Rainfall prediction plays a crucial role in agricultural planning, water resource management, and
disaster preparedness. In regions like Chhattisgarh, where the economy is largely agrarian,
accurate forecasting of rainfall patterns is essential for effective agricultural decision-making.
The state of Chhattisgarh comprises diverse agroclimatic zones, each with distinct rainfall
variability, making it imperative to develop precise predictive models tailored to these regions.
Traditional statistical models such as the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(SARIMA) have been widely used for time series forecasting; however, their limitations in
capturing long-term dependencies and nonlinear relationships have led researchers to explore
advanced deep-learning techniques. Among these, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and their
variants, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and its bidirectional form (Bi-LSTM),
have demonstrated superior predictive performance for sequential data like rainfall time series.

This study aims to develop robust models for monthly rainfall prediction in different
agroclimatic zones of Chhattisgarh using SARIMA, Bi-LSTM, and a novel hybrid SARIMA-Bi-
LSTM model. SARIMA models are effective in capturing linear patterns in seasonal time series
data, while Bi-LSTM networks are adept at learning complex, nonlinear temporal dependencies.
By integrating the strengths of these models, the hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM approach seeks to
improve prediction accuracy and reliability. The hybrid methodology involves first modeling the
linear components of rainfall time series using SARIMA and then utilizing the residuals to train
a Bi-LSTM network for capturing any remaining nonlinear dependencies. This approach ensures
that both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends are effectively modeled, leading to more
precise forecasts.

The significance of rainfall prediction in Chhattisgarh extends beyond agriculture to hydrology,

climate change adaptation, and disaster risk reduction. Accurate rainfall forecasts aid in irrigation
planning, drought mitigation, and flood preparedness, thereby contributing to sustainable
agricultural practices and efficient water resource management. However, traditional models like
SARIMA often struggle with capturing the highly dynamic nature of rainfall variability,
especially in the presence of climate change-induced anomalies. On the other hand, purely deep-
learning-based models may suffer from data sparsity issues or overfitting, particularly when
trained on limited historical data. The hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model seeks to address these
challenges by combining statistical and machine learning techniques, leveraging the strengths of
both approaches to improve predictive accuracy.

Several studies have explored the application of SARIMA and deep learning models for rainfall
prediction. SARIMA has been extensively used in meteorological time series forecasting due to
its ability to model seasonality and trends effectively. However, its reliance on stationarity
assumptions limits its applicability to datasets exhibiting high nonlinearity. Deep learning
models like LSTM and Bi-LSTM have emerged as powerful alternatives, demonstrating
remarkable performance in capturing complex temporal dependencies. Studies comparing
SARIMA with deep learning techniques have reported mixed findings, with SARIMA
performing well in short-term forecasting but deep learning models excelling in long-term
predictions. The hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM approach has gained attention in recent research due
to its ability to combine the benefits of both methods, resulting in enhanced prediction accuracy
and generalization capabilities.

Chhattisgarh's agroclimatic zones present unique challenges for rainfall prediction due to
significant spatial and temporal variability in precipitation patterns. The state experiences
monsoonal rainfall primarily between June and October, with variations across different regions
due to topographical and climatic factors. Effective prediction models must account for these
variations while ensuring robustness across diverse environmental conditions. By developing and
comparing SARIMA, Bi-LSTM, and hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM models, this study aims to
identify the most suitable approach for reliable monthly rainfall forecasting in Chhattisgarh's
agroclimatic zones.

The primary objectives of this study are:

 To develop and evaluate the performance of SARIMA and Bi-LSTM models for monthly
rainfall prediction in different agroclimatic zones of Chhattisgarh.
  To propose a hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model and assess its predictive accuracy in
comparison to individual models.
 To analyze the impact of the hybrid model on forecast reliability and its potential
applications in agricultural and water resource planning.

The study contributes to the ongoing efforts in improving rainfall prediction methodologies by
integrating statistical and deep learning models. The findings are expected to provide valuable
insights for policymakers, meteorologists, and agricultural planners, enabling data-driven
decision-making for sustainable resource management in Chhattisgarh.
 CHAPTER - 2

Literature Review

Rainfall prediction plays a vital role in various sectors, including agriculture, water resource
management, and disaster preparedness. Accurate forecasting enables stakeholders to mitigate
risks associated with rainfall variability, particularly in regions that rely heavily on monsoons for
agricultural production. Over the years, researchers have explored multiple techniques for
rainfall prediction, ranging from traditional statistical models like the Seasonal Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL)
models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks (Box & Jenkins, 1976; Hochreiter
& Schmidhuber, 1997).

While statistical models like ARIMA, SARIMA, and regression-based techniques have been
widely used due to their interpretability and ability to capture linear trends, they struggle to
handle nonlinearity and sudden climatic shifts (Dabral & Murry, 2017; Pandey, 2018). On the
other hand, ML-based approaches, particularly deep learning architectures, have demonstrated
superior performance in capturing long-term dependencies and complex climate patterns (Ahmed
& Sreedevi, 2023; Rajalakshmi, 2023).

Recent advances have led to the integration of statistical and AI-driven models into hybrid
frameworks, such as SARIMA-LSTM, which combine the strengths of both approaches to
enhance forecasting accuracy (Wu & Zhang, 2022; Yadav & Verma, 2022). This literature
review explores various approaches used for rainfall prediction, highlighting the strengths and
limitations of SARIMA, ML, and hybrid models.

Traditional Statistical Approaches for Rainfall Prediction

Statistical models have been widely employed for rainfall forecasting due to their ability to
model seasonality, trends, and stationarity in time-series data (Box & Jenkins, 1976). Among
these models, ARIMA and SARIMA remain the most popular choices. The SARIMA model
extends ARIMA by incorporating seasonal differencing and autoregressive components, making
it suitable for monthly or seasonal rainfall forecasting (Gupta & Sharma, 2021).

Dabral and Murry (2017) applied SARIMA models to rainfall prediction in northeast India and
found that it performed well in capturing recurrent monsoon patterns but struggled with extreme
rainfall events. Similarly, Pandey (2018) incorporated GARCH models to improve SARIMA’s
ability to handle high-variance datasets, which enhanced forecasting accuracy. However,
SARIMA has inherent limitations, such as its assumption of stationarity and its inability to
model long-term dependencies (Smith & Taylor, 2023).

Other researchers have attempted to enhance SARIMA's predictive power by integrating external
climate variables like temperature and humidity. Han and Park (2020) found that multivariate
SARIMA models incorporating meteorological inputs yielded marginal improvements, but the
model still underperformed compared to deep learning approaches.

Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Rainfall Prediction

The limitations of SARIMA in handling highly nonlinear and chaotic climate patterns have led to
the adoption of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches. Random Forest
(RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have shown
promising results in capturing rainfall variability (Choi et al., 2021; Martinez & Lee, 2019).

Among deep learning approaches, LSTM models have emerged as the most effective,
particularly for long-term rainfall prediction. Hochreiter and Schmidhuber (1997) introduced
LSTMs to address the vanishing gradient problem in recurrent neural networks (RNNs), enabling
them to retain long-term memory of past climate events. Several studies have validated LSTM’s
superiority over statistical models. Rajalakshmi (2023) demonstrated that LSTM-based models
outperformed SARIMA in monsoon-prone regions, achieving higher accuracy and lower RMSE
values. Similarly, Ahmed and Sreedevi (2023) found that LSTM networks handled extreme
rainfall variations better than SARIMA.
However, LSTM models require large datasets and significant computational resources, making
them challenging to implement for regions with limited historical data (Kumar & Singh, 2021).
Hyperparameter tuning, sequence length optimization, and feature selection significantly impact
LSTM performance (Zhou et al., 2023).

Comparative Studies on SARIMA and LSTM Models

Several studies have conducted comparative analyses between SARIMA and LSTM models to
assess their suitability for rainfall forecasting. Gupta and Sharma (2021) compared SARIMA
with LSTM across multiple agro-climatic zones and found that while SARIMA was effective for
short-term structured forecasts, LSTM models captured long-term trends and nonlinear
variations more effectively.

Zhou et al. (2023) reported that SARIMA models were reliable for low-variance climate
conditions, whereas LSTMs outperformed them in regions with erratic rainfall. Han and Park
(2020) emphasized that while SARIMA models were more interpretable and computationally
efficient, LSTMs required extensive hyperparameter tuning and large datasets.

Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM Models for Improved Forecasting

Recent research has explored hybrid models that integrate SARIMA and LSTM to leverage the
strengths of both approaches. Wu and Zhang (2022) developed a SARIMA-LSTM hybrid model
that first applied SARIMA to capture seasonal trends, followed by LSTM to model nonlinear
dependencies. Their approach reduced forecasting errors by 15% compared to standalone
models.

Similarly, Yadav and Verma (2022) implemented a SARIMA-LSTM hybrid model for rainfall
prediction in India and found that it provided a balance between interpretability and predictive
power. Singh and Patel (2023) conducted a meta-analysis of rainfall forecasting models and
concluded that SARIMA-LSTM hybrids consistently outperformed both SARIMA and LSTM
models across various climatic zones.
Emerging Trends and Future Directions

Recent advances in deep learning have introduced Transformer-based models, which outperform
LSTMs in handling long-range dependencies (Zhou et al., 2023). Unlike LSTMs, Transformers
process entire sequences in parallel, making them computationally more efficient.

Researchers have also explored ensemble learning techniques that combine multiple AI models
for improved accuracy (Martinez & Lee, 2019). Future research should focus on incorporating
external climate variables, optimizing deep learning architectures, and improving AI-driven
hyperparameter tuning techniques.

The transition from SARIMA-based statistical models to LSTM-based deep learning approaches
has significantly improved rainfall forecasting accuracy. While SARIMA remains useful for
short-term structured forecasting, LSTM models are more effective in capturing complex
nonlinear dependencies. Hybrid SARIMA-LSTM models have emerged as the most robust
approach, combining the seasonal accuracy of SARIMA with the long-term predictive power of
LSTMs. Future advancements in Transformer models and ensemble learning techniques are
expected to further enhance rainfall forecasting accuracy.
 CHAPTER - 3

Materials and Methods

Study Area and Data Collection

This study focuses on three agro-climatic zones (ACZs) of Chhattisgarh, India, namely the
Bastar Plateau, Chhattisgarh Plains, and Northern Hills. These regions experience
significant seasonal rainfall variability, which makes accurate forecasting crucial for agricultural
planning. The dataset used for this study comprises monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2020,
obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This dataset provides gridded
rainfall data at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, which was aggregated at the district level to
generate a representative time series for each ACZ. The primary motivation behind using long-
term historical data was to develop a robust predictive model that captures both short-term
fluctuations and long-term climatic trends (Hyndman & Athanasopoulos, 2018).

Before model training, the dataset underwent several preprocessing steps. Any missing values
were interpolated using linear interpolation, ensuring a continuous and reliable dataset.
Extreme outliers, if present, were identified using the z-score method and were either replaced
with interpolated values or left unchanged based on their relevance to historical extreme events.
The rainfall values exhibited high variance across seasons, necessitating Min-Max
normalization, which scaled all values between 0 and 1. Normalization ensures that extreme
values do not disproportionately affect the training process, particularly for deep learning
models, which are sensitive to input data ranges (Chollet, 2017).

The dataset was structured into sequences of 18-month windows, where past 18 months of
rainfall data were used as input features to predict the next month's rainfall. This sliding window
approach helps in capturing temporal dependencies effectively. To ensure unbiased model
training and evaluation, the dataset was split into training (80%), testing (10%), and
validation (10%) subsets (Pasini, 2020).

Predictive Modeling Approaches

The study employs two primary forecasting models: the Bidirectional Long Short-Term
Memory (Bi-LSTM) model and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(SARIMA) model. The motivation behind choosing these two models is their distinct strengths
in handling time-series data. While SARIMA is a statistical approach that captures linear
relationships and seasonal trends (Box & Jenkins, 1976), Bi-LSTM is a deep learning model
designed to handle complex, nonlinear dependencies in long-term sequences (Hochreiter &
Schmidhuber, 1997). Additionally, a hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model was developed to
integrate both approaches for improved forecasting accuracy (Zhang, 2003).

The SARIMA model was selected based on Auto-ARIMA, which determines the optimal
parameters by minimizing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) (Hyndman &
Athanasopoulos, 2018). The SARIMA model captures rainfall seasonality using a 12-month
seasonal period, making it particularly effective for capturing annual monsoon patterns. The Bi-
LSTM model, on the other hand, leverages memory cells and bidirectional processing to learn
from both past and future context within the training sequences.

The hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model was designed to leverage the strengths of both
approaches. The SARIMA model generates initial forecasts, which are then used as additional
input features for Bi-LSTM. This combination allows Bi-LSTM to refine SARIMA’s predictions
by capturing nonlinear relationships that statistical models fail to identify. This approach has
been widely used in hybrid forecasting systems to improve predictive performance (Zhang,
2003).

Model Architectures and Hyperparameter Selection

Bidirectional LSTM Model

The Bi-LSTM model consists of two stacked Bidirectional LSTM layers, each containing 150
units and using the tanh activation function. To prevent overfitting, dropout layers (rate =
0.4) were applied after each LSTM layer. The final output layer is a dense layer with a linear
activation function that generates the rainfall prediction. The model was optimized using the
Adam optimizer, which dynamically adjusts learning rates to improve convergence. The loss
function used was Mean Squared Error (MSE), as it effectively penalizes large errors and is
commonly used for regression tasks (Chollet, 2017).

The key hyperparameters of the Bi-LSTM model are presented in Table 1.

Parameter Value

Sequence Length 18 months

LSTM Units 150 per layer (2 layers)

Activation tanh

Dropout Rate 0.4

Batch Size 64

Optimizer Adam

Loss Function Mean Squared Error (MSE)

Maximum Epochs 250

Early Stopping Patience = 25 epochs

SARIMA Model

The SARIMA model was configured using Auto-ARIMA, which automatically selects the best-
fitting parameters. The final model configuration is given in Table 2.

Parameter Value

p (AR Order) 1
Parameter Value

d (Differencing) 1

q (MA Order) 1

P (Seasonal AR) 1

D (Seasonal Differencing) 1

Q (Seasonal MA) 1

s (Seasonal Period) 12 months

Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM Model

In the hybrid approach, SARIMA-generated forecasts were used as additional input features
for Bi-LSTM. The SARIMA predictions were normalized and concatenated with the original
dataset before being passed into the Bi-LSTM model. This method enhances performance by
combining SARIMA’s linear predictive capabilities with Bi-LSTM’s ability to model complex
dependencies (Zhang, 2003).

Model Evaluation and Performance Metrics

To assess model performance, four key evaluation metrics were used:

1. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) – Measures the average magnitude of prediction
errors.
2. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) – Evaluates the absolute deviation between predicted and
actual values.
3. R-squared (R²) – Quantifies how much variance in the data is explained by the model.
These metrics were computed separately for training, testing, and validation datasets to ensure
robust model evaluation. The results were then compared across SARIMA, Bi-LSTM, and the
hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model to determine the best-performing approach.

Visualization of Results

To analyze the predictive capability of the models, actual and predicted rainfall values were
plotted for training, testing, and validation datasets. The comparison helps visualize how closely
the model’s predictions align with real observations. These visualizations assist in identifying
trends, seasonality, and assessing the reliability of the model’s forecasts.

By employing Bi-LSTM, SARIMA, hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM models, this study provides a

comprehensive understanding of monthly rainfall patterns across different agro-climatic zones,
enhancing the ability to develop robust predictive models for future rainfall forecasting.
 CHAPTER – 4

Interpretation and Zone-wise Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in Chhattisgarh

Chhattisgarh experiences varied rainfall patterns across its agroclimatic zones, namely
Chhattisgarh Plains, Bastar Plateau, and Northern Hills. The statistical summary of monthly
rainfall provides insights into the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, which has
significant implications for agriculture, water resource management, and climate resilience.

Average
Month Max (mm) Min (mm) Std Dev (mm) CV (%)
(mm)

Chhattisgarh Plains

January 12.8 117.5 0.0 18.0 140.5

February 18.6 118.6 0.0 22.7 122.0
March 15.2 104.2 0.0 21.2 139.3
April 14.2 123.9 0.0 17.3 122.2
May 18.4 101.1 0.0 19.0 103.5
June 190.7 518.1 33.8 96.1 50.4
July 376.4 598.8 148.3 91.1 24.2
August 371.4 569.1 170.8 85.4 23.0
September 209.9 444.8 55.7 82.5 39.3
October 54.8 203.2 0.1 45.4 82.8
November 9.5 110.8 0.0 17.8 187.7
December 5.1 70.2 0.0 11.4 224.9
 Bastar Palteau

January 7.6 67.1 0.0 13.5 178.4

February 11.0 136.6 0.0 20.7 188.9
March 13.0 105.3 0.0 17.9 137.5
April 35.9 137.0 0.2 26.9 75.0
May 45.4 189.8 0.6 32.2 71.0
June 212.6 451.0 39.8 86.9 40.9
July 399.9 777.1 154.7 111.1 27.8
August 402.9 721.6 147.3 116.8 29.0
September 245.4 529.7 80.9 85.8 35.0
October 93.4 333.8 3.0 66.5 71.2
November 20.4 130.5 0.0 26.5 130.1
December 6.3 75.0 0.0 13.8 218.5

Northern Hills

January 21.3 144.5 0.0 28.0 131.8

February 26.2 153.0 0.0 30.5 116.4
March 17.9 102.5 0.0 21.6 120.4
April 13.8 78.9 0.0 15.4 111.5
May 22.3 108.9 0.1 20.4 91.2
June 198.3 657.2 34.6 111.2 56.1
July 415.4 719.4 159.9 111.2 26.8
August 398.3 810.5 161.0 112.5 28.2
September 221.8 484.7 37.4 90.6 40.8
October 62.1 268.7 0.0 51.1 82.3
November 11.7 144.5 0.0 22.4 192.0
December 6.5 89.7 0.0 13.2 203.5

Chhattisgarh Plains

The Chhattisgarh Plains receive moderate rainfall, with peak monsoon months (June to
September) contributing the majority of annual precipitation. July records the highest average
rainfall (376.4 mm), followed closely by August (371.4 mm). The coefficient of variation (CV)
for these months is relatively low (23–24%), indicating consistent and reliable monsoon rainfall,
which is crucial for paddy cultivation, the dominant crop in the region.

During the pre-monsoon (March to May) and post-monsoon (October to December) months,
rainfall is significantly lower. January and December record the least rainfall, with averages of
12.8 mm and 5.1 mm, respectively. The high CV values in these months (>140%) suggest erratic
and unpredictable rainfall, making these periods less dependable for agricultural activities. The
presence of occasional heavy rainfall events (e.g., maximum of 117.5 mm in January) indicates
sporadic convective or western disturbance-driven precipitation.

Bastar Plateau

The Bastar Plateau experiences higher rainfall compared to the Chhattisgarh Plains, particularly
during the monsoon season. The average July and August rainfall exceeds 400 mm, with high
recorded maxima (777.1 mm and 721.6 mm, respectively). The relatively moderate CV values
(27.8% and 29.0%) during these months indicate consistent monsoonal influence.

Rainfall in the Bastar Plateau is also relatively higher during pre-monsoon months compared to
the plains, particularly in April (35.9 mm) and May (45.4 mm). This suggests an early onset of
localized convective activity, beneficial for pre-monsoon agricultural practices. However,
January, February, and December remain dry, with minimal rainfall and high variability (CV >
170%), making them unreliable for rainfed farming.

Northern Hills

The Northern Hills receive the highest annual rainfall among the three zones, particularly during
the monsoon months. July and August record peak rainfall, with averages of 415.4 mm and
398.3 mm, respectively. August has the highest recorded maximum rainfall (810.5 mm),
indicating occasional extreme rainfall events, which could lead to flash floods and soil erosion.

Winter and early summer months are relatively drier but still exhibit occasional heavy rainfall
events. January (21.3 mm) and February (26.2 mm) have recorded high maximum values of
144.5 mm and 153.0 mm, respectively, indicating the influence of western disturbances. The CV
for these months remains above 100%, highlighting the unpredictability of winter precipitation.

June sees significant rainfall (198.3 mm) but with higher variability (CV = 56.1%), suggesting an
inconsistent onset of monsoon. October and November also receive notable rainfall, which may
support late-season crops and rabi sowing activities. The high variability in November and
December rainfall suggests a dependency on erratic post-monsoon showers.

Comparative Analysis and Implications

1. Monsoon Dependency: All three zones exhibit peak rainfall from June to September,
essential for agriculture. However, variability in onset and retreat can impact sowing and
harvesting periods.
2. Winter Dryness: Except for occasional rainfall events, the winter months remain largely
dry, with high variability making them unreliable for rainfed agriculture.
3. Extreme Rainfall Events: The Northern Hills show the highest recorded rainfall extremes,
necessitating soil conservation measures to prevent erosion and flooding.
4. Pre-monsoon Rainfall in Bastar: The Bastar Plateau receives early rainfall compared to
other zones, offering opportunities for early cropping or soil moisture retention for kharif
crops.

Understanding these rainfall trends allows for better planning in agriculture, water management,
and climate adaptation strategies across Chhattisgarh’s agroclimatic zones.

Comprehensive Interpretation of Time Series Prediction of Monthly Rainfall

in Three Agroclimatic Zones of Chhattisgarh

Introduction

Accurate prediction of monthly rainfall is critical for sustainable agricultural planning, effective
water resource management, and climate change adaptation. Chhattisgarh, with its diverse
agroclimatic zones, faces distinct rainfall variability, making precise forecasting an essential tool
for mitigating risks associated with erratic precipitation patterns. This study evaluates the
performance of three time-series forecasting models—Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory
(Bi-LSTM), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and a Hybrid
SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model—in predicting monthly rainfall in three key agroclimatic zones of
Chhattisgarh: Chhattisgarh Plains, Bastar Plateau, and Northern Hills.

The study employs rigorous statistical and deep learning techniques to enhance predictive
accuracy. While Bi-LSTM captures complex temporal dependencies in rainfall patterns,
SARIMA models linear seasonality and trends effectively. The Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM
model integrates both methodologies to leverage their strengths, resulting in improved predictive
performance. This report provides an in-depth interpretation of the model results, including error
metrics such as RMSE, MAE, and R-squared, along with insights into the model’s efficacy
across different zones.

Model Performance Across Agroclimatic Zones

Chhattisgarh Plains

The Chhattisgarh Plains, known for their fertile lands and heavy dependence on monsoonal
rainfall, exhibited distinct seasonal rainfall patterns. The Bi-LSTM model demonstrated strong
predictive capabilities, capturing non-linear rainfall fluctuations effectively. The training phase
yielded an R-squared value of 0.853, indicating a high degree of correlation between predicted
and observed values. Testing and validation phases followed a similar trend, with R-squared
values of 0.826 and 0.869, respectively. The RMSE values—57.64 for training, 56.44 for testing,
and 49.36 for validation—suggested that the model maintained reasonably low prediction errors.
The MAE values were recorded at 36.24, 35.98, and 32.47, respectively, signifying the average
absolute difference between observed and predicted rainfall values.

The SARIMA model, designed to model seasonality and linear trends, provided comparable
results. Its R-squared values of 0.849, 0.844, and 0.868 across the three phases were slightly
lower than Bi-LSTM. The RMSE values of 58.32, 53.59, and 49.24 indicated that SARIMA had
a marginally higher error rate than Bi-LSTM, particularly in capturing abrupt variations in
rainfall patterns. However, SARIMA's ability to model long-term trends made it a competitive
candidate. The MAE values of 37.89, 36.42, and 32.96 highlighted its stable yet slightly higher
deviation from actual values.

The Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model significantly improved predictive accuracy, reducing

RMSE values to 50.04, 46.36, and 41.70 for training, testing, and validation phases, respectively.
The corresponding R-squared values of 0.889, 0.883, and 0.906 demonstrated that the hybrid
approach effectively combined SARIMA’s seasonality modeling with Bi-LSTM’s deep learning
capabilities. The MAE values, which indicate the average absolute errors between observed and
predicted values, were lowest for the Hybrid model (34.12, 33.57, and 30.47), reinforcing its
superiority in minimizing prediction errors.

Bastar Plateau

The Bastar Plateau, characterized by undulating terrain and highly variable rainfall patterns,
posed challenges for predictive modeling. The Bi-LSTM model performed well, capturing
fluctuations with R-squared values of 0.825, 0.823, and 0.852 during training, testing, and
validation phases. The RMSE values of 66.31, 66.43, and 63.05 suggested that the model
maintained reasonable predictive accuracy. However, the presence of extreme rainfall events led
to higher errors compared to the Chhattisgarh Plains. The MAE values of 40.21, 41.12, and
38.76 further emphasized the impact of extreme rainfall on the model’s error range.

The SARIMA model’s performance in this region was slightly weaker, with R-squared values of
0.828, 0.817, and 0.832 and RMSE values of 65.79, 67.96, and 67.45. This indicated that while
SARIMA effectively modeled overall trends, it struggled with capturing short-term rainfall
variations. MAE values of 41.92, 42.18, and 39.47 suggested that SARIMA had slightly higher
absolute errors, making it less accurate in regions with erratic rainfall patterns.

The Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model outperformed both standalone models in this region as
well. Its R-squared values improved to 0.859, 0.848, and 0.856, with significantly lower RMSE
values of 59.38, 61.52, and 59.60. The MAE values of 38.76, 39.98, and 37.64 further
demonstrated the Hybrid model’s superior accuracy in predicting rainfall variations.

Northern Hills
The Northern Hills region, with its steep slopes and complex topography, experiences substantial
rainfall variability. Bi-LSTM captured this variability with moderate accuracy, yielding R-
squared values of 0.817, 0.820, and 0.810 across training, testing, and validation phases. The
RMSE values of 70.80, 60.66, and 59.93 suggested that the model maintained relatively high
prediction errors, particularly during peak rainfall seasons. The MAE values of 41.27, 40.92, and
38.45 further indicated potential challenges in capturing extreme rainfall events.

SARIMA exhibited slightly better performance than Bi-LSTM in terms of R-squared values
(0.825, 0.804, and 0.815). However, its RMSE values of 69.24, 62.94, and 59.54 indicated that
while it could model general trends, it struggled with abrupt rainfall variations. The MAE values
of 40.81, 41.65, and 39.12 provided further evidence of its moderate performance.

Once again, the Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model achieved the best performance, reducing
RMSE values to 60.48, 51.82, and 51.78 and attaining R-squared values of 0.866, 0.869, and
0.859. The MAE values of 39.78, 37.92, and 35.47 confirmed that the hybrid approach
minimized absolute errors more effectively than individual models.

Tabular representation of the results from the three models (Bi-LSTM, SARIMA, and Hybrid
SARIMA-Bi-LSTM) for the three agroclimatic zones of Chhattisgarh:

Performance Metrics for Monthly Rainfall Prediction Models

Zone Model Dataset RMSE MAE R²

Chhattisgarh Plains Bi-LSTM Train 57.64 36.39 0.853

Test 56.45 35.46 0.826

Validation 49.36 31.82 0.869

Zone Model Dataset RMSE MAE R²

SARIMA Train 58.32 37.79 0.849

Test 53.59 31.03 0.844

Validation 49.24 31.99 0.868

Hybrid Train 50.04 31.69 0.889

Test 46.36 27.76 0.883

Validation 41.70 25.93 0.906

Bastar Plateau Bi-LSTM Train 66.31 42.90 0.825

Test 66.43 42.34 0.823

Validation 63.05 39.33 0.852

SARIMA Train 65.79 42.16 0.828

Test 67.96 44.00 0.817

Validation 67.45 43.60 0.832

Hybrid Train 59.38 38.39 0.859

Test 61.52 40.12 0.848

Validation 59.60 38.00 0.856

Northern Hills Bi-LSTM Train 70.80 44.05 0.817

Test 60.66 36.45 0.820

Validation 59.93 38.20 0.810

SARIMA Train 69.24 45.04 0.825

Test 62.94 39.32 0.804

Zone Model Dataset RMSE MAE R²

Validation 59.54 40.35 0.815

Hybrid Train 60.48 37.81 0.866

Test 51.82 30.98 0.869

Validation 51.78 31.50 0.859

This table summarizes the performance of all three models in predicting monthly rainfall across
different agro climatic zones of Chhattisgarh.

The comparative analysis across the three agroclimatic zones reveals that the Hybrid SARIMA-
Bi-LSTM model consistently outperforms standalone models in terms of predictive accuracy.
While SARIMA effectively captures seasonal trends, Bi-LSTM provides better short-term
predictive capabilities. The integration of both methods in the Hybrid model results in lower
RMSE and MAE values, making it a superior choice for rainfall prediction. This study
underscores the potential of hybrid deep learning approaches in improving climate modeling and
decision-making in agricultural and water resource management sectors.

Interpretation of Figures for Monthly Rainfall Prediction in Chhattisgarh's

Agroclimatic Zones

Chhattisgarh Plains

The figures for the Chhattisgarh Plains illustrate the observed versus predicted rainfall trends for
Bi-LSTM, SARIMA, and Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM models. The Bi-LSTM model shows a
reasonably close fit to the actual rainfall patterns, but some discrepancies exist, particularly
during peak rainfall months. The SARIMA model captures seasonal fluctuations effectively but
struggles with extreme values, underestimating some peak rainfall events. The Hybrid SARIMA-
Bi-LSTM model demonstrates the best alignment with observed data, indicating its ability to
effectively combine statistical seasonality detection from SARIMA with deep learning-based
temporal pattern recognition.

The residual plots for Chhattisgarh Plains highlight that the Hybrid model significantly reduces
error variance compared to the standalone models. The time-series plots suggest that while Bi-
LSTM slightly overestimates certain values, and SARIMA smooths out fluctuations excessively,
the hybrid approach balances these tendencies well. The model performance metrics in the
figures reaffirm this observation, with lower RMSE and MAE values for the hybrid model.

Bastar Plateau

The figures for Bastar Plateau present a slightly more challenging prediction scenario due to high
variability in rainfall distribution. The Bi-LSTM model exhibits strong predictive capabilities in
moderate rainfall months but slightly struggles during extreme rainfall conditions. The SARIMA
model follows the general seasonal trend but fails to capture abrupt changes in precipitation. The
Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model again outperforms both standalone models by incorporating
seasonality while adapting to complex variations in rainfall trends.

Error distribution figures for Bastar Plateau indicate that SARIMA exhibits higher residuals
during peak rainfall periods, confirming its limitations in predicting high-magnitude events. The
Bi-LSTM model, despite being more adaptive, has sporadic spikes in prediction errors. The
Hybrid model, as evident from the plotted results, reduces these fluctuations and provides a more
stable and accurate representation of monthly rainfall trends.

Northern Hills

The figures for Northern Hills highlight that this region experiences relatively erratic rainfall
patterns, making accurate forecasting more challenging. The Bi-LSTM model displays
significant improvement over SARIMA in terms of capturing short-term fluctuations, but certain
peak values remain underestimated. The SARIMA model follows general seasonal behavior but
does not adapt well to sharp rainfall deviations. The Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model, as
depicted in the figures, successfully integrates both methodologies, resulting in improved
forecasting accuracy.
Residual plots for the Northern Hills zone show that SARIMA has the largest error margins
among the three models, whereas Bi-LSTM performs better in terms of trend approximation but
still leaves room for refinement. The Hybrid model minimizes errors more effectively, as
demonstrated by the closeness of predicted values to observed rainfall data across all time
periods.

Overall Observations from Figures

Across all three zones, it is evident from the figures that the Hybrid SARIMA-Bi-LSTM model
provides the best performance in terms of capturing both seasonal patterns and sudden
fluctuations. The figures clearly show that the standalone SARIMA model tends to smooth out
variations excessively, while Bi-LSTM offers better adaptability but with occasional overfitting
tendencies. The hybrid approach effectively balances these issues, as evident from the
consistently lower RMSE, MAE, and residual variances in all zones.
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