Multiplication Rule of Probability

Multiplication Rule #1
When two events A and B are independent, the probability of both occurring is
P (A and B) = P(A) • P (B)
where:
P(A) = probability of occurrence of A
P(B) = probability of occurrence of B
P (A and B) = probability that both event A and B occur
Independent Events
- If the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another.
- Two events are independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one has no effect on the probability of
the occurrence of the other.
Example:
1A. A coin is flipped, and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
P (H and 4) = P(H) • P (4)
1 1 𝟏
P (H and 4) = • = 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟑𝟑 𝒐𝒓 𝟖. 𝟑𝟑%
2 6 𝟏𝟐

1B. A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a queen
and then an ace.
P (Q and A) = P(Q) • P (A)
4 4 𝟏
P (Q and A) =52 • 52 = 𝟏𝟔𝟗 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓𝟗𝟏 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟓𝟗𝟏%

Multiplication Rule #2
When two events A and B are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
P (A and B) = P(A) • P (B|A)
Where:
P(A) = probability of occurrence of A
P (B|A) = the conditional probability of A given that B has occurred
P (A and B) = probability that both event A and B occur
Dependent Events
- If the outcome of one event affects the outcome of the other.
- Two events are dependent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one affect probability of the occurrence
of the other.
Example:
2. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the probability of these events.
a. Getting 3 Jacks
4 3 2 𝟏
P(3J) = (52) (51) (50) = 𝟓𝟓𝟐𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟖 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟖%

b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order

4 4 4 𝟖
P (A, K, Q) = (52) (51) (50) = 𝟏𝟔𝟓𝟕𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟒𝟖 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟒𝟖%

c. Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order

13 13 13 𝟏𝟔𝟗
P (C, S, H) = (52) (51) (50) = 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟔 𝒐𝒓 𝟏. 𝟔𝟔%

Other Problems:
1. What is the probability of getting a 5 and then a 2 with normal 6-sided die?
P (getting a 5 and then a 2) = P (5) • P(2)
1 1 𝟏
P (getting a 5 and then a 2) = (6) (6) = 𝟑𝟔 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟕𝟖 𝒐𝒓 𝟐. 𝟕𝟖%

2. From a standard pack of cards one after another, without replacing the first card. Determine the
probability that the first card is the ace of spade, and the second card is a heart?
The event is a dependent event.
P (A of S and H) = P (A of S) • P (H| A of S)
1 13 𝟏
P (A of S and H) = (52) (51) = 𝟐𝟎𝟒 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟒𝟗 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟒𝟗%

3. At the entrance to a casino, there are two slot machines. Machine A is programmed so that in the long run
it will produce a winner in 10% of the plays. Machine B is programmed so that in the long run it will
produce a winner in 15% of the plays. If we play each machine once, what is the probability that we will
lose on both plays?
In this case we are trying to find P (A’ and B’)
Since P(A) = 0.10
Using the complements rule:
P(A’) = 1 - P(A) = 1 – 0.10 = 0.90
Since P(B) = 0.15
Using the complements rule:
P(B’) = 1 - P(B) = 1 – 0.15 = 0.85
Thus, P (A’ and B’) = P (A’) • P (B’) = 0.90 X 0.85 = 0.765 or 76.5%
 4. A bag has 15 marbles in it. 10 are blue, 3 are red, and 2 are white. Find the probability of drawing a red
marble and then a blue marble without replacement.
The event is a dependent event.
3 10 𝟏
P (R and B) = (15) (14) = 𝟕 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟏𝟒𝟑 𝒐𝒓 𝟏𝟒. 𝟑%

5. A student is chosen at random from The University of Phoenix. The probability that a student takes a math
course at The University of Phoenix is 0.50. The probability that a student takes a science course at The
University of Phoenix is 0.30. The probability that they take a science class, or a math class is 0.65. Are the
events “take a math class” and “take a science class” independent.

P (M or S) = P(M) + P(S) – P (M and S)

0.65 = 0.50 + 0.30 – P (M and S)
P (M and S) = 0.50 + 0.30 – 0.65 = 0.15
Check if P (M and S) is equal to P(M) • P (S)
P(M) • P (S) = (0.50) (0.30) = 0.15 = P (M and S)
Therefore, yes, the events are independent because P (M and S) = P(M) • P (S)

6. When a pair of dice are rolled there are 36 different possible outcomes: 1-1, 1-2, ... 6-6. If a pair of dice are
rolled 4 times, what is the probability of getting a sum of 5 every time?
The favorable outcomes are (1,4), (2,3), (4,1), and (3,2), so there are only four possible favorable outcomes out of
4 1
36 in the sample space. Therefore, the probability on any single roll of the two dice will be P (sum of 5) = 36 = 9.
If we let event A be rolling a sum of 5 on the first roll, etc. then using the multiplication rule #1, we have:
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑋 𝑃(𝐵) 𝑋𝑃(𝐶) 𝑋 𝑃(𝐷)
1 1 1 1 1 4 𝟏
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) = (9) (9) (9) (9) = (9) = 𝟔𝟓𝟔𝟏 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟓𝟐 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟓𝟐%

7. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Consider the event E ‘three heads or three tails’, F ‘at least two
heads’, and G ‘at most two heads’. Of the pairs (E, F), (E, G) and (F, G), which are independent? Which are
dependent?
Sample Space, S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Events:
E = {HHH, TTT}
F = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}
G = {HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Also
E and F = {HHH}
E and G = {TTT}
F and G = {HHT, HTH, THH}
2 1
𝑃(𝐸) = =
8 4
4 1
𝑃(𝐹) = =
8 2
7
𝑃(𝐺) =
8
1 1 3
𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹) = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺) = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺) =
8 8 8
1 1 1
𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹) = P(E) • P (F) = ( ) ( ) =
4 2 8
1 7 7
𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺) = P(E) • P (G) = ( ) ( ) =
4 8 32
1 7 7
𝑃(𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺) = P(F) • P (G) = ( ) ( ) =
2 8 16
Thus,
𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐹) = P(E) • P (F)
𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺) ≠ P(E) • P (G)
𝑃(𝐹 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺) ≠ P(F) • P (G)
Hence, the events (E and F) are independent, and the events (E and G) and (F and G) are dependent.

8. A man owns a house in town and a cottage in the country. In any one year the probability of the town house
being burgled is 0.01 and the probability of the country cottage being burgled is 0.05. In any year what is
the probability that or the other (but not both) will be burgled?
Burgled – enter (a building) illegally with intent to commit a crime, especially theft.
Burgled: P(H) = 0.01; The Town House will not be burgled: P(H’) = 1 – P(H) = 1 - 0.01 = 0.99
Burgled: P(C)= 0.05; The Cottage will not be burgled: P(C’) = 1 – P(C) = 1 - 0.05 = 0.95
P (one or the other (but not both) will be burgled) = P ((H and C’) or (H’ and C)) = P (H and C’) + P (H’ and C)

Events:
The town house will be burgled, and the cottage will not be burgled = (H and C’)
The town house will not be burgled, and the cottage will be burgled = (H’ and C)
Recall: Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time or simultaneously.
The town house will be burgled, and the cottage will not be burgled are independent events.
P (H and C’) = P(H) • P(C’) = 0.01 (0.95)

The town house will not be burgled, and the cottage will be burgled are independent events.
P (H’ and C) = P(H’) • P(C) = 0.99 (0.05)
P (one or the other (but not both) will be burgled) = P ((H and C’) or (H’ and C)) = P(H) • P(C’) + P(H’) • P(C)

P (one or the other (but not both) will be burgled) = P ((H and C’) or (H’ and C)) = 0.01 (0.95) + 0.99 (0.05)

= 0.059