Numerical Weather Prediction

(NWP) Products

Dr. M. T. Bushair
Scientist-C
[email protected]
 Weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is the

application of science and
technology to predict the
conditions of the atmosphere for
a given location and time.
 Ranges of weather forecasting
1. Nowcasting 0 -2 hours

2. Short-range weather forecasting Up to 12 hours

3. Beyond 12 hours and up

to 72 hours

4. Medium-range weather forecasting Beyond 72 hours and up

to 240 hours

5. Extended-range weather forecasting Beyond 10 days and up

to 30 days

6. Long-range forecasting From 30 days up to two

years
 A Brief History
❖Recognition by V. Bjerknes in 1904 that
forecasting is fundamentally an initial-value
problem and basic system of equations already
known
❖L. F. Richardson’s first attempt at practical NWP
❖Radiosonde invention in 1930s made upper-air
data available
❖Late 1940s: First successful dynamical-numerical
forecast made by Charney, von Neumann and
others.
 A Brief History

❖First one-day nonlinear weather prediction

was made in 1950. It took more than 24 hours
to make a 24 hrs forecast.
❖In 1954, the Joint Numerical Weather
Prediction Unit (JNWPU) was given the
mission to apply computer technology to the
operational production of weather forecasts.
❖By 1955 the JNWPU was issuing numerical
weather predictions twice a day.
Weather forecasting:- Steps
1. Development of initial state of
atmosphere
2. Prediction of future state of
atmosphere

2(i) Synoptic method

2(ii) Statistical method
2(iii) Numerical weather prediction (NWP)
 What is NWP ?

When a numerical model is used in

meteorology to forecast the weather the
process is called numerical weather
prediction (NWP).
 What is NWP?

A numerical model is a computer program

designed to simulate some real system; in our
case weather.

NWP Models are based on the laws of physics.

Equations based on those laws are integrated
forward in time to simulate changes in the
atmosphere.
 NWP model Components
1. Initial Conditions:
Input data and initialization
2. Governing equations
3. Numerical Procedures:
approximations used to estimate each term (especially
important for advection terms)
approximations used to integrate model forward in
time
boundary condition
4. Physical Processes
5. Model Output
 Initial Conditions

❖Numerical simulations are initial value

problems.

❖The process of providing initial value data to

a model is known as initialization.

❖Initial conditions are typically provided by a

numerical synthesis of available observations.
 Input Data

1. Surface observations
2. Rawinsonde observations
3. Satellite data
4. Radar data
5. Profiler observations
6. Aircraft observation
 Initialization

Initialization is the process of taking data

and preparing it for input into a numerical
model.

The result of the initialization is a

physically consistent data set that is used as
the initial conditions for the NWP model.
 Governing equations
Weather ′WX′ at a place (x) at a time ′t′ is

WX = f(u(x,t),v(x,t),w(x,t),P(x,t),T(x,t),q(x,t)).

u- zonal wind
v- meridional wind
w- vertical wind
p- pressure
T- temperature
q-specific/relative humidity
 Governing equations
• Conservation of momentum (Newton’s 2nd law)
– 3 equations for accelerations of 3-d wind (F = Ma)

• Conservation of mass
– 1 equation for conservation of air (mass continuity)
– 1 equation for conservation of water

• Conservation of energy
– 1 equation for the first law of thermodynamics

• Relationship among p, V, and T

– 1 equation of state (ideal gas law)
Mathematically, these equations are expressed as a
system of nonlinear partial differential equations.
 Governing Equations

The Primary task of mesoscale modelling is to

solve these nonlinear equations numerically.
 NWP
MODELS
Data Representation in GRID point and spectral model

NWP Model Types:

1. Grid point Model ( ex. WRF, Unified Model)
2. Spectral Model (ex. GFS,ECMF,JMA)
3. Hydrostatic Models
4. Non-Hydrostatic Models

❖Grid point and spectral models are based on the same

set of primitive equations.
❖However, each type formulates and solves the
equations differently.
❖The differences in the basic mathematical
formulations contribute to different types of errors in
the model .
Grid Point Models: (eg: Unified model)

➢Horizontal resolution is defined as the distance

between grid points.
Grid Point Models

❖Data are represented on a fixed set of grid points.

❖
❖Resolution is a function of the grid point spacing.

❖All calculations are performed at grid points.

❖Finite difference approximations are used for

solving the derivatives of the model's equations.
 Spectral Models (eg: GFS)
➢Data are represented by wave functions.

➢Horizontal resolution is a function of wave number

➢Higher numbers (more waves) indicate finer

resolution

➢The more waves used to represent the data, the

more computing power required to carry out the
calculations
How Data are Represented in Spectral Model:
Hydrostatic Models (eg: GFS)
➢They use the hydrostatic primitive equations, which
assume a balance between the weight of the
atmosphere and the vertical pressure gradient force.

➢ This means that no vertical accelerations are

calculated explicitly.

➢The hydrostatic assumption is valid for synoptic-

and planetary-scale systems.
Non-Hydrostatic models

➢ All the Meso-scale models (i.e., WRF, ) in the

current operational NWP are Non-hydrostatic.

➢Vertical accelerations are calculated.

➢Non-hydrostatic models run at very high

resolution

➢Characteristically predict detailed mesoscale

structure
 IMD Operational Models
Temporal Numerical Resolutions and
scales NWP/Climate Models Frequency of Update
• WRF • 3 km (4 times a day, 3 days
Up to short • Hurricane Weather FC)
range Research Forecast (HWRF) • 18x06x02 km (During
forecasting regional models cyclone)
• EWRF, HRRR • Thunderstorm/lightening
• GFS T1534 Global model • 12 km (4 times a day, 10 days
Medium • Global Ensemble Forecast FC)
range System (GEFS) atmospheric • 12 km (Run once a day) for
forecast model (20 members) 10 days

Extended • Climate Forecast System • 38 km (Run once in a week)

range (CFS) coupled models (16 for 32 days
forecast members)
(ERF)
Seasonal • Climate Forecast System • 38 km (Run once in a month)
forecast (CFS) coupled models (20 for 4 to 7 months
members)
MODEL RESOLUTION Type REMARKS

NOWCASTING
EWRF 3 km Non Hydrostatic (NH), Lightening Forecast, lightening data assimilation.
Regional (Reg), grid
point (GP)

HRRR 2km NH, Reg, GP Hourly updated, up to 12 hr forecast; radar & surface data
assimilation.

SHORT RANGE WHETHER FORECASTING

WRF 3 km NH, Reg, GP

HWRF 2/6/18 km NH, Reg, GP Cyclone forecasting

MEDIUM RANGE WHETHER FORECASTING

GFS ~12 km Hydrostatic, Global,
Spectral

GEFS ~12km Hydrostatic, Spectral

EXTENDED RANGE WHETHER FORECASTING

CFS v2 ~112km (output) Ocean atmosphere Coupled model

LONG RANGE WHETHER FORECASTING

LRF
 Ensemble Forecasting
❖An increasingly used method of weather forecasting allows for
the uncertainties concerning initial conditions and the role of
chance. It is called �ensemble forecasting�.

❖ The idea is that repeated forecasts are made from the same
initial time, with the initial conditions varied by an error whose
magnitude reflects the degree of uncertainty of the observations

❖Instead of running just a single forecast, the computer model is

run a number of times from slightly different initial conditions.

❖The initial differences between the ensemble members are small,

and consistent with uncertainties in the observations.

❖But when we look several days ahead, the forecasts can be quite
different
 Ensemble NWP Forecast
❖ An increasingly used method of weather forecasting allows for
the uncertainties concerning initial conditions and the role of
chance. It is called �ensemble forecasting�.
❖ The idea is that repeated forecasts are made from the same
initial time, with the initial conditions varied by an error whose
magnitude reflects the degree of uncertainty of the observations
❖ Instead of running just a single forecast, the computer model is
run a number of times from slightly different initial conditions.
❖ The complete set of forecasts is referred to as the ensemble,
and individual forecasts within it as ensemble members.
❖ We design the ensemble forecast system so that each member
should be equally likely.
❖ The initial differences between the ensemble members are small,
and consistent with uncertainties in the observations.
❖ But when we look several days ahead, the forecasts can be quite
different
Single Model Ensemble Forecasting
12h 24h
forecast forecast

e
36h
forecast
a
c
u
j

n T

g
t

Useful for probability Forecast

Multi-model Ensemble :

❖ Mean forecast giving equal weight to each

model

Super ensembles :
❖Forecast prepared from different models
using different weight to different model.
❖The weight depends on the performance of
the model
NWP PRODUCTS
Direct and Derived Products
❖There are two kinds of NWP model products
namely;
a) Direct model products Derived model
products.
❖Directly available as model output are called
direct model products. (Eg. U,V, T, Q, etc)
❖ Aside from the direct model products, many
other parameters make useful forecast tools
but are not yet available as basic model output
are called derived model products. (eg. Divergence,
Vorticity, vertical wind shear etc).
Numerical expression of some Derived
Products
The outputs such as vorticity, divergence, vertical wind
shear, moisture flux, CAPE, CINE etc are called derived
products.
Numerical expression of these derived products are

Lower tropospheric convergence (negative value of

divergence), vorticity and vertical wind shear provide
information on the intensity of a low pressure system.
Interpretations
of NWP Model
Products
NWP Model forecast
1. Familiarity with the NWP model’s strengths and
weaknesses on the forecaster's part is very
important.
2. Forecaster should try to recognise the important
processes behind the developments indicated in the
model evolution, and their significance in terms of
likely weather conditions.
3. It is not enough merely to note that the model is
forecasting rain – the underlying cause of the rain
should be understood.
4. The forecaster should become used to comparing
actual conditions to those forecasts by the model.
Case Studies
Some of the typical case studies of
weather system using NWP model (GFS)
products available at IMD web site are
presented here.
Monsoon Trough

❖Monsoon trough is an extended trough of low pressure

which runs across Gangetic Plains of north India with its
axis runs from Ganga Nagar in Rajasthan to Kolkata via
Allahabad.
❖The maxima of rainfall lie on the south of its axis.
❖ The northward and southward movements of monsoon
trough axis are generally indicative of the large scale
active and weak monsoon conditions.
❖The position of monsoon trough axis is an important
factor in the monsoon activity over the sub continent.
Monsoon Trough : on 19 July 2014 : Active Periods
MSLP:
When the
trough stays in
the normal
position, this is
considered to
be an active
monsoon
situation.
The rainfall is
well distributed
over the
northern plains
and central
parts of the
country
When the trough dips into the Bay, conditions becomes favorable for the formation of
depression/low in the Bay of Bengal, which eventually moves northwest ward across the main
land and produces good rainfall activity.
Monsoon Trough : on 19 July 2014 : Active Periods

The axis of
monsoon trough at
925 hPa
Monsoon Trough : at 850 hPa on 19 July: Active Periods

The axis of
monsoon
trough at 850
hPa shift
southward
with height
Monsoon Trough ---“Break” monsoon condition
❖When the trough shifts northward to the foot
hills of Himalayas, the rainfall over the central
and northern parts of the country is drastically
reduced and increases along the foot hills of
Himalayas. This situation has come to known as a
“Break” monsoon condition.
❖The break monsoon condition usually last for a
few days.
❖ Prolonged breaks sometimes occur leading to
dry condition over the large pats of the country.
Monsoon Trough : 0n 19 Aug 2014 : Weak/Break Periods
• The
monsoon
trough often
gets
completely
wipe out in
the MSLP
and low level
wind fields.
Monsoon Trough : Weak/Break Periods
• The monsoon
trough is
missing in the
low level 925
hPa wind chart
on 19th Aug
2014.
• NO Easterlies
found over NW
India
Monsoon Trough : Weak/Break Periods

The monsoon
trough is
missing in the
low level 850
hPa wind chart
also on 19th Aug
2014.
 Low Pressure System -Monsoon Depression
⮚ Monsoon depression is the main rain producing system which
usually forms in the North Bay of Bengal and subsequently moves
northwest wards across the country giving heavy to very heavy
rainfall during its passage.
⮚ Currently most of the operational NWP models are capable to
predict the initial formation of low-pressure system as well as the
intensification process 3 to 5 days in advance. But there is a
problem in track prediction.
⮚ Due to mismatch in the track prediction, error continues in the
forecast of rainfall distribution.
⮚ Forecaster needs to apply their own experience for judicious use
of NWP products, particularly for the rainfall forecasts.
Case study: Monsoon depression : 22September 2011

GFS model
showed
considerab
le skill in
predicting
the
Tropical
cyclogenesi
s Location
over Bay
of Bengal
Case study: Monsoon Depression
Case study: Monsoon Depression
Case study: Monsoon winds
Case study: Monsoon winds
Case study: Tropical cyclone: 6-10 December 2022
Case study: Tropical cyclone: 6-10 December 2022
Case study: Tropical cyclone: 6-10 December 2022
 Western Disturbance (WD)

➢ Western Disturbance (WD) is an extra tropical storm

that brings sudden winter rain and snow to the
northwestern parts of the India.
➢ The moisture in these storms usually originates over the
Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.
➢ Extra tropical storms are a global phenomena with
moisture usually carried in the upper atmosphere (unlike
tropical storms where it is carried in the lower
atmosphere).
Western Disturbance : on 10 Jan 2014 :Winter seasons

L L

Moisture is sometimes shed as

rain when the system encounters
the Himalayas

The 500 hPa contour chart is used to note the positions of troughs and ridges in the WD.
Western Disturbance : Winter seasons
Western Disturbance (WD) : Winter seasons

CC

WD is seen as cyclonic
circulation at low levels
Western Disturbance (WD) : Winter seasons

Moisture supply from Arabian sea

Thank you