Combinatorical probability

Combinatorial probability is the branch of probability theory that uses combinatorics—the

mathematics of counting—to calculate the likelihood of events. It involves counting the number
of favorable outcomes and dividing by the total number of possible outcomes.
Key concepts include:
Permutations: Arrangements where order matters.
Combinations: Selections where order does not matter.
The general formula for the probability of an event $ A $ is:

For example, if four children A, B, C, and D sit randomly on four chairs, the total number of ways
they can sit is . If we want the probability that child A sits in the first chair, we count the
favorable cases (6 ways) and get:

Combinatorial probability also uses the multiplication rule for counting outcomes of multiple
independent choices, and it underpins distributions like the binomial distribution, which models
the probability of a number of successes in repeated independent trials [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] .
⁂

Total number of possible outcomes

The total number of possible outcomes in combinatorial probability depends on whether order
matters and if repetition is allowed. Common formulas include:
Permutations without repetition: $ \frac{n!}{(n-r)!} $, where is the total items and is
the number chosen.
Combinations without repetition: $ \binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} $, used when order
does not matter.
Permutations with repetition: $ n^r $.
Combinations with repetition: $ \binom{n+r-1}{r} = \frac{(n+r-1)!}{r!(n-1)!} $.
To find the total number of outcomes, identify the scenario type and apply the corresponding
formula. For example, the number of ways to choose 3 toppings from 8 (order does not matter)
is $ \binom{8}{3} = 56 $ total outcomes [6] [7] [8] .
In general, total outcomes are the size of the sample space, calculated by counting all possible
arrangements or selections relevant to the problem [9] [10] .
⁂

Factorial notation
Factorial notation, denoted by an exclamation mark (!), represents the product of all positive
integers from a given positive integer $ n $ down to 1. Mathematically, it is expressed as:

For example, $ 5! = 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 120 $ [11] [12] [13] .
By convention, the factorial of zero is defined as $ 0! = 1 $. This is because there is exactly one
way to arrange zero objects (the empty arrangement), and it ensures consistency in
combinatorial formulas [13] .
Factorials are widely used in counting problems, permutations, combinations, and probability
calculations, as they count the number of ways to order or select objects [12] [14] .
⁂

Types of Permutations and Their Uses

There are four main types of permutations, each suited to different scenarios depending on
whether repetition is allowed, the distinctness of items, and arrangement style:

Formula / Key
Type Description Scenario Example
Idea

$ P(n, r) =
1. Permutations Items are distinct and each item Arranging 3 letters from 5
\frac{n!}{(n-r)!}
without repetition is used only once. Order matters. distinct letters without reuse.
$

Items can be repeated; each

2. Permutations Passwords of length 4 from 10
choice is made from all items $ n^r $
with repetition digits, digits can repeat.
each time.

Items are not all distinct; some

$ \frac{n!}{n_1! Anagrams of the word
3. Permutations are repeated. Count distinct
\times n_2! "MISSISSIPPI" with repeated
of multisets arrangements accounting for
\times \cdots} $ letters.
repeats.

Items arranged in a circle where Seating 5 people around a

4. Circular
rotations are considered the $ (n-1)! $ round table (rotations
permutations
same arrangement. indistinguishable).
How to Use Them in Different Scenarios
Without repetition: When selecting or ordering distinct objects and each can be used only
once. Example: Assigning unique prizes to winners.
With repetition: When selections allow reuse of the same item multiple times. Example:
Generating PIN codes or license plates.
Multisets: When the set contains duplicates and you want to count unique arrangements.
Example: Counting distinct permutations of letters in words with repeated letters.
Circular permutations: When arranging items in a circle, and rotations are not counted as
different. Example: Arranging people around a round table.
Each type has a specific formula and interpretation based on whether order matters, repetition is
allowed, and the nature of the items involved [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] .
⁂

Types of Combinations and Their Uses

Combinations refer to selecting items from a set where order does not matter. There are two
main types:

Type Description Formula Scenario Example

Items are distinct and each

1. Combinations $ \binom{n}{k} = Choosing 3 flavors from 8
item can be selected only
without repetition \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} $ different ice cream flavors.
once. Order does not matter.

Selecting 3 fruits from 5

Items can be selected $ \binom{n+k-1}{k} =
2. Combinations types where repeats allowed
multiple times. Order does \frac{(n+k-1)!}{k!(n-
with repetition (e.g., 2 apples and 1
not matter. 1)!} $
banana).

How to Use Them in Different Scenarios

Without repetition: Use when you want to select a subset of distinct items and the order
does not matter. Example: Forming a committee of 4 people from 10 candidates.
With repetition: Use when items can be chosen multiple times, and order still does not
matter. Example: Choosing toppings for a pizza where you can have multiple servings of the
same topping.

Summary
Combinations count selections without regard to order.
Use the without repetition formula when each item can be chosen only once.
Use the with repetition formula when items can be chosen multiple times.
These formulas help calculate the total number of possible selections or outcomes in
probability and counting problems.
This distinction is crucial in probability and combinatorics to correctly count outcomes when
order is irrelevant [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] .
⁂

How to Use Permutations and Combinations with Examples

Permutations (Order Matters)

Use when: You want to count the number of ways to arrange or order items.
Formula:

where = total items, = items chosen.

Example 1:
From 10 people, how many ways to select a President, Vice President, and Secretary (3 distinct
positions)?

There are 720 ways to assign these positions [25] [26] [27] .
Example 2:
How many different 2-letter words can be formed from the letters in "GREAT"?

So, 20 different 2-letter arrangements are possible [28] [27] .

Combinations (Order Does Not Matter)

Use when: You want to count the number of ways to select items without regard to order.
Formula:

Example 1:
How many ways to pick a team of 3 people from 10?

There are 120 ways to choose the team [25] [26] [27] .
Example 2:
Choosing 3 desserts from a menu of 10 (order doesn't matter):

Summary Table
Use Permutation or
Scenario Formula Example Outcome
Combination?

720 ways (10 people, 3

Assigning distinct roles Permutation
roles)

Selecting a group (order 120 ways (10 people,

Combination
irrelevant) choose 3)

How to Choose Which to Use

If order matters (e.g., ranking, arranging), use permutations.
If order does not matter (e.g., selecting a group), use combinations.
Understanding the difference helps solve counting and probability problems accurately [25] [26]
[27] [29] .

Finding the value of x in permutation and

combination expressions
To find the value of $ x $ in permutation or combination expressions, you typically set up an
equation using the formulas and solve for the unknown variable.

Key formulas:
Permutation:

Combination:

How to find $ x $:
1. Write the equation using the given permutation or combination formula.
2. Plug in known values for $ n $, $ r $, or the result, leaving $ x $ as the unknown.
3. Simplify factorial expressions as much as possible.
 4. Solve the resulting equation for $ x $.

Example 1: Solve for $ x $ in a permutation

Given:

Using permutation formula:

Calculate $ 6! = 720 $, so:

Since $ 4! = 24 $, we get:

Example 2: Solve for $ x $ in a combination

Given:

Using combination formula:

We know $ C(10, 3) = 120 $ (from common values or by calculation), so:

Summary
Use the permutation or combination formula to set up an equation.
Simplify factorial expressions.
Use known factorial values or properties to solve for $ x $.
Sometimes trial with small integer values helps since $ x $ is usually an integer.
This approach helps find unknown values in combinatorial expressions efficiently [30] [31] [32] .
⁂
Concept of probability
Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur, expressed as a number between 0
and 1. A probability of 0 means the event is impossible, while 1 means it is certain to happen.
Values between 0 and 1 indicate the likelihood of the event occurring [33] [34] [35] .
The probability of an event is calculated by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the
total number of possible outcomes in the sample space:

For example, when rolling a fair six-sided die, the probability of rolling a 4 is , since there is one
favorable outcome (rolling a 4) and six possible outcomes (numbers 1 through 6) [34] [36] [37] .
Key points include:
The sum of probabilities of all possible outcomes in a sample space is always 1.
Events can be impossible ( ), certain ( ), or somewhere in between.
Probability helps predict outcomes in uncertain situations like games, weather forecasting,
insurance, and stock markets [34] [38] .
In summary, probability quantifies the chance of an event happening based on the ratio of
favorable outcomes to all possible outcomes in a well-defined experiment [33] [35] [39] .
⁂

Example questions of basic probability

Here are some basic probability example questions with solutions:
1. Coin Toss
A coin is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of getting at least one head?
Total outcomes =
Favorable outcomes (at least one head) = 7 (all except TTT)
Probability = $ \frac{7}{8} $
2. Drawing a Card
What is the probability of drawing a numbered card (2 to 10) from a standard deck of 52
cards?
Numbered cards = 9 per suit × 4 suits = 36
Probability = $ \frac{36}{52} = \frac{9}{13} $
3. Selecting Balls
A bag has 5 green and 7 red balls. Two balls are drawn without replacement. What is the
probability the first is green and the second is red?
Probability = $ \frac{5}{12} \times \frac{7}{11} = \frac{35}{132} $
 4. Rolling a Die
What is the probability of rolling an even number on a six-sided die?
Even numbers = 3 (2,4,6)
Probability = $ \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2} $
5. Selecting Committee Members
A committee has 4 women and 3 men. Two people are randomly selected. What is the
probability both are women?
Probability = $ \frac{4}{7} \times \frac{3}{6} = \frac{12}{42} = \frac{2}{7} $
These examples cover basic probability concepts like sample space, favorable outcomes,
independent and dependent events, and calculating probabilities with and without
replacement [40] [41] [42] .
⁂

Types of probability and how to use in different

scenarios
There are four main types of probability, each used in different scenarios:

1. Classical (Theoretical) Probability

Definition: Assumes all outcomes are equally likely. Probability is the ratio of favorable
outcomes to total possible outcomes.
Formula:

Use when: You know all possible outcomes and they have equal chance, e.g., rolling a fair
die, drawing a card from a well-shuffled deck.
Example: Probability of rolling a 3 on a fair six-sided die is $ \frac{1}{6} $.

2. Empirical (Experimental) Probability

Definition: Based on observations or experiments. Probability is estimated by the relative
frequency of an event occurring in repeated trials.
Formula:

Use when: Theoretical probabilities are unknown or difficult to calculate, so you estimate
from data or experiments.
Example: Toss a possibly biased coin 100 times and observe 60 heads; empirical
probability of heads is $ \frac{60}{100} = 0.6 $.
3. Subjective Probability
Definition: Based on personal judgment, belief, or experience rather than precise
calculations.
Use when: No clear data or equal likelihood; often used in decision-making, forecasting, or
when probabilities are uncertain.
Example: A sports fan estimating the chance their favorite team will win based on intuition
or past performance.

4. Axiomatic Probability
Definition: A formal mathematical framework based on axioms (rules) that probabilities
must satisfy, such as non-negativity, total probability equals 1, and additivity for mutually
exclusive events.
Use when: Developing probability theory rigorously or working with complex probability
spaces beyond simple counting.
Example: Used in advanced probability and statistics to define probability measures on
abstract sample spaces.

Summary Table
Type Definition When to Use Example

Equal likelihood, theoretical Known, equally likely

Classical Rolling a fair die
ratio outcomes

Based on observed Unknown theoretical Estimating bias from repeated

Empirical
data/frequencies probabilities coin toss

No data or uncertain
Subjective Personal belief or judgment Predicting sports outcomes
situations

Formal mathematical Advanced probability Defining probability on

Axiomatic
foundation theory complex spaces

Each type helps model uncertainty in different contexts, from simple games to real-world
decision-making and scientific experiments [43] [44] [45] [46] .
⁂

Probability and Venn Diagram

A Venn diagram is a visual tool used in probability to represent events as circles within a
rectangle (the sample space), showing their relationships such as intersections, unions, and
mutually exclusive parts [47] [48] [49] .
How to Use Venn Diagrams in Probability
Identify events as circles: Each circle represents an event.
Overlapping regions: Represent intersections (events occurring together).
Non-overlapping parts: Represent mutually exclusive events.
Outside all circles: Represents outcomes not in any event.

Calculating Probability Using Venn Diagrams

1. Count the number of outcomes in the event region(s).
2. Divide by the total number of outcomes in the sample space (the rectangle).
3. For combined events:
Probability of union (A or B):

Probability of intersection (A and B): Count the overlapping region.

4. Conditional probability:

Use the intersection and event B's region to find this.

Example
If a survey of 60 adults shows 30 like apples (including 10 who also like oranges), the probability
a randomly selected adult likes apples is:

If 50 like only band, 31 only drama, and 23 both band and drama but not football out of 300
students, the probability of participating in band or drama but not football is:

Additional Notes
Mutually exclusive events: Circles do not overlap; intersection probability is zero.
Independent events: Probability of intersection equals product of individual probabilities;
Venn diagrams help visualize this.
Venn diagrams can represent two or three events and help clarify complex relationships
and probabilities [47] [49] [50] .

In summary, Venn diagrams provide a clear way to visualize and calculate probabilities of single
events, unions, intersections, and conditional probabilities by representing events as overlapping
or separate regions within a sample space.
 ⁂

Complementary probability
Complementary probability refers to the probability of the event not occurring. For any event $
A $, its complement $ A' $ consists of all outcomes in the sample space where $ A $ does not
happen. The key relationship is:

This means the probability of an event plus the probability of its complement always sums to 1.

How to use complementary probability

When it’s easier to find the probability that an event does not happen, calculate $ P(A') $
first, then find $ P(A) = 1 - P(A') $.
Useful in complex problems where directly counting favorable outcomes is difficult.

Examples
1. Coin toss: Probability of getting at least one head in 3 tosses
Complement: no heads (all tails) = $ \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 = \frac{1}{8} $
So, $ P(at least one head) = 1 - \frac{1}{8} = \frac{7}{8} $.
2. Choosing a number from 1 to 50: Probability the number is not a perfect square
Perfect squares: 1,4,9,16,25,36,49 (7 numbers)
$ P(perfect square) = \frac{7}{50} $
$ P(not perfect square) = 1 - \frac{7}{50} = \frac{43}{50} $.

Properties of complementary events

They are mutually exclusive (cannot happen together).
They are exhaustive (one of them must happen).

Summary
Concept Formula Explanation

Complement of event $ A' = S - A $ Outcomes where does not occur

Complementary probability $ P(A') = 1 - P(A) $ Probability that does not happen

Using complementary probability simplifies many problems by focusing on the "opposite" event
and subtracting from 1.
⁂
Evaluate all the key concepts (queries)
Certainly! Here's a comprehensive evaluation and summary of all the key concepts (queries)
you've asked about related to combinatorial probability and probability theory:

1. Combinatorial Probability
Definition: Probability calculated by counting favorable outcomes over total possible
outcomes using combinatorial methods.
Key idea: Use permutations and combinations to count outcomes.
Formula:

Use: When dealing with problems involving arrangements, selections, or distributions.

2. Total Number of Possible Outcomes

Depends on the context:
Permutations without repetition: $ P(n, r) = \frac{n!}{(n-r)!} $
Combinations without repetition: $ C(n, r) = \binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} $
Permutations with repetition: $ n^r $
Combinations with repetition: $ \binom{n+r-1}{r} $
Use: Identify the scenario (order matters? repetition allowed?) and apply the correct
formula.

3. Factorial Notation
Definition:

Special case: by convention.

Use: Fundamental in permutations and combinations to count arrangements.

4. Types of Permutations
Type Description Formula Scenario Example

Permutations without $ P(n, r) = Arranging 3 books from 5

Order matters, no repeats
repetition \frac{n!}{(n-r)!} $ distinct books

Permutations with Passwords of length 4

Order matters, repeats allowed $ n^r $
repetition from 10 characters
 Type Description Formula Scenario Example

Permutations of Some items repeated, count $ \frac{n!}{n_1!

Anagrams of "BALLOON"
multisets distinct arrangements n_2! \cdots} $

Arrangements in a circle Seating people around a

Circular permutations $ (n-1)! $
(rotations same) round table

5. Types of Combinations
Type Description Formula Scenario Example

Combinations without Order does not matter, $ C(n, r) = \binom{n}{r} = Choosing 3 flavors from
repetition no repeats \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} $ 8 ice cream flavors

Combinations with Order does not matter, Selecting 3 fruits from 5

$ \binom{n+r-1}{r} $
repetition repeats allowed types with repeats

6. Using Permutations and Combinations

Permutations: Use when order matters.
Example: Assigning distinct roles to people.
Combinations: Use when order does not matter.
Example: Selecting a committee from candidates.

7. Finding the Value of $ x $ in Permutation/Combination Expressions

Set up equation using permutation or combination formula.
Substitute known values and solve for $ x $.
Use factorial simplification and known factorial values.
Example:
Given $ P(6, x) = 30 $, solve for $ x $ by:
$ \frac{6!}{(6-x)!} = 30 \Rightarrow (6-x)! = \frac{720}{30} = 24 \Rightarrow (6-x)! = 4!
\Rightarrow x=2 $

8. Concept of Probability
Probability measures the likelihood of an event (0 to 1).
Formula:

Sum of probabilities of all outcomes = 1.

Used to predict outcomes in uncertain events.
9. Example Questions of Basic Probability
Coin toss, dice rolls, card draws, selecting balls, committee selection.
Illustrate concepts like independent events, dependent events, with and without
replacement.

10. Types of Probability

Type Description When to Use Example

Known, equally likely

Classical Equal likelihood outcomes Rolling a fair die
outcomes

Unknown theoretical Estimating bias from

Empirical Based on observed data
probabilities experiments

No data or uncertain
Subjective Personal judgment or belief Predicting sports outcomes
scenarios

Formal mathematical Defining probability

Axiomatic Advanced probability theory
framework measures

11. Probability and Venn Diagram

Venn diagrams visually represent events and their relationships (union, intersection,
complement).
Key formulas:
Union: $ P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) $
Intersection: region overlap
Complement: outside event circle
Useful for solving problems involving combined events and conditional probability.

12. Complementary Probability

Probability that event $ A $ does not occur:

Useful when calculating probability of “at least one” or “not” events.

Complementary events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

Summary
Concept Key Formula / Idea When to Use

Combinatorial Counting outcomes with

$ P(A) = \frac{favorable}{total} $
Probability permutations/combinations
 Concept Key Formula / Idea When to Use

$ n! = n \times (n-1) \times \cdots

Factorial Counting arrangements
\times 1 $

Permutations $ P(n,r) = \frac{n!}{(n-r)!} $ Order matters, no repetition

Combinations $ C(n,r) = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} $ Order does not matter

Complementary
$ P(A') = 1 - P(A) $ Easier to calculate “not” events
Probability

Probability (Basic) $ P(E) = \frac{favorable}{total} $ Measuring likelihood

Visualize unions, intersections,

Venn Diagram Complex event relationships
complements

If you want, I can provide detailed examples or solve specific problems related to any of these
concepts!

Give at least 20 questions from all of the key

concepts together
Here are 20 diverse questions covering all key concepts of permutations, combinations,
probability, factorials, complementary probability, and Venn diagrams:

Combinatorial Probability & Counting

1. How many different 5-letter words can be formed from the letters of the word "APPLE"?
(Consider repeated letters.)
2. From a group of 10 people, how many ways can you select a team of 4 members?
3. In how many ways can 6 students be seated in a row of 6 chairs?
4. A password consists of 4 digits (0-9). How many passwords are possible if digits can
repeat?
5. How many ways can 3 red balls and 2 blue balls be arranged in a row?

Permutations
6. Find the number of permutations of 7 objects taken 3 at a time.
7. How many distinct ways can the letters of the word "BALLOON" be arranged?
8. In how many ways can 5 people be seated around a round table?
9. A coach must assign 3 distinct awards to 10 players. How many ways can this be done?
10. How many 3-digit numbers can be formed from digits 1 to 9 without repetition?
Combinations
11. From 8 flavors of ice cream, how many ways can you choose 3 flavors for a sundae?
12. How many ways can a committee of 4 be formed from 6 men and 5 women if the committee
must have at least 2 women?
13. In how many ways can you select 5 cards from a standard deck of 52 cards?
14. How many combinations of 3 fruits can be chosen from 5 types if repetition is allowed?
15. A student must answer 6 questions from section A (10 questions) and 4 from section B (6
questions). How many ways can the student choose?

Probability Basics
16. What is the probability of drawing a heart from a standard deck of cards?
17. If a die is rolled twice, what is the probability that the sum is 7?
18. A bag contains 4 green and 6 red balls. Two balls are drawn without replacement. What is
the probability that both are green?
19. What is the probability of getting at least one head in 3 tosses of a fair coin?
20. If the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.3, what is the probability that it will not rain?

These questions cover factorials, permutations (with and without repetition), combinations (with
and without repetition), basic probability, complementary probability, and counting scenarios
suitable for applying Venn diagrams and conditional probability. They provide a well-rounded
practice set for mastering these key concepts.
⁂

Solve the questions

Certainly! Below are detailed solutions for each of the 20 questions covering permutations,
combinations, factorials, probability, and complementary probability.

Combinatorial Probability & Counting

1. How many different 5-letter words can be formed from the letters of the word
"APPLE"?
Solution:
Letters: A, P, P, L, E
Number of letters = 5
Repeated letter: P repeated twice
Number of distinct permutations:
2. From a group of 10 people, how many ways can you select a team of 4
members?
Solution:
Order does not matter → combination:

3. In how many ways can 6 students be seated in a row of 6 chairs?

Solution:
Order matters, no repetition → permutation of all 6:

4. A password consists of 4 digits (0-9). How many passwords are possible if

digits can repeat?
Solution:
Each digit can be any of 10 digits, repetition allowed:

5. How many ways can 3 red balls and 2 blue balls be arranged in a row?
Solution:
Total balls = 5, with 3 identical red and 2 identical blue.
Number of distinct arrangements:

Permutations

6. Find the number of permutations of 7 objects taken 3 at a time.

Solution:
7. How many distinct ways can the letters of the word "BALLOON" be arranged?
Solution:
Letters: B, A, L, L, O, O, N
Total letters = 7
Repeated letters: L (2 times), O (2 times)
Number of distinct permutations:

8. In how many ways can 5 people be seated around a round table?

Solution:
Circular permutations:

9. A coach must assign 3 distinct awards to 10 players. How many ways can this
be done?
Solution:
Order matters (different awards), no repetition:

10. How many 3-digit numbers can be formed from digits 1 to 9 without repetition?
Solution:
First digit: 9 choices (1-9)
Second digit: 8 choices (excluding first)
Third digit: 7 choices
Total:

Combinations

11. From 8 flavors of ice cream, how many ways can you choose 3 flavors for a
sundae?
Solution:
Order does not matter, no repetition:
12. How many ways can a committee of 4 be formed from 6 men and 5 women if
the committee must have at least 2 women?
Solution:
Possible cases: 2 women + 2 men, 3 women + 1 man, 4 women + 0 men.
Calculate each:
2 women and 2 men:

3 women and 1 man:

4 women and 0 men:

Total ways:

13. In how many ways can you select 5 cards from a standard deck of 52 cards?
Solution:
Order does not matter:

14. How many combinations of 3 fruits can be chosen from 5 types if repetition is
allowed?
Solution:
Combination with repetition:

15. A student must answer 6 questions from section A (10 questions) and 4 from
section B (6 questions). How many ways can the student choose?
Solution:
Number of ways:
Probability Basics

16. What is the probability of drawing a heart from a standard deck of cards?
Solution:
Number of hearts = 13
Total cards = 52

17. If a die is rolled twice, what is the probability that the sum is 7?
Solution:
Total outcomes =
Favorable pairs summing to 7: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) → 6 outcomes

18. A bag contains 4 green and 6 red balls. Two balls are drawn without
replacement. What is the probability that both are green?
Solution:

19. What is the probability of getting at least one head in 3 tosses of a fair coin?
Solution:
Complement: no heads (all tails)
20. If the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.3, what is the probability that it will not
rain?
Solution:

If you want me to explain any solution in more detail or solve more problems, just ask!

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