Data on sales of shampoo Level Trend Forecast

Sale
Month Quantity
(2012)
0.0328 0.9486
January 1 3002666
February 2 4401553 3002666 1398887
March 3 3205279 4362315 1361666 4401553
April 4 4245349 5675482 1315660 5723981
May 5 3001940 6860296 1191539 6991142
Sale June 6 4377766 7931326 1077224 8051835
Quantity
(2012) July 7 2798343 8804855 883999.2 9008550
August 8 4303668 9512220 716444.1 9688855
September 9 2958185 9990193 490229.8 10228665
October 10 3623386 10255512 276879.4 10480423
November 11 3279115 10294484 51200.43 10532391
December 12 2843766 10099621 -182215 10345684
January 13 4447581 9737996 -352403 9917406
February 14 3675305 9198295 -530074 9385593
March 15 3477156 8497955 -691589 8668222
April 16 3720794 7672359 -818708 7806366
May 17 3834086 6754609 -912659 6853651
Sale June 18 3888913 5777891 -973426 5841950
Quantity
(2013) July 19 3871342 4773859 -1002459 4804465
August 20 3679862 3768397 -1005307 3771400
September 21 3358242 2782611 -986790 2763090
October 22 3361488 1847175 -938075 1795821
November 23 3670362 999669.4 -852161 909100
December 24 3123966 245136.1 -759551 147508.3
January 25 4634047 -345546 -599362 -514415
February 26 3772879 -790164 -452572 -944907
March 27 3187110 -1097437 -314742 -1242736
April 28 3093683 -1264387 -174546 -1412179
May 29 4557363 -1242254 12023.41 -1438932
Sale June 30 3816956 -1064683 169062 -1230230
Quantity
(2014) July 31 4410887 -721567 334169.1 -895621
August 32 3694713 -253505 461180.2 -387398
September 33 3822669 326247 573657.4 207675.2
October 34 3689286 991396.2 660446.5 899904.4
November 35 3728654 1719962 725064.5 1651843
December 36 4732677 2520061 796242.7 2445027
January 37 3216483 3313030 793136.8 3316304
February 38 3453239 4084751 772821.6 4106167
March 39 5431651 4876402 790683.5 4857572

Sale
Quantity
(2015)
 April 40 4241851 5620338 746338.6 5667086
May 41 3909887 6286094 669897.9 6366677
Sale June 42 3216438 6833334 553545.1 6955992
Quantity
(2015) July 43 4222005 7283072 455073 7386880
August 44 3621034 7603103 326972.8 7738145
September 45 5162201 7839290 240853 7930076
October 46 4627177 7966886 133417.1 8080143
November 47 4623945 7986278 25253.42 8100303
December 48 4599368 7899613 -80912.91 8011532
 Data on sales of shampoo
Sale
Month Quantity
(2012)
0.2 0.1574
January 1 3002666 3002666 3002666.0000
February 2 4401553 3002666 3002666.0000
March 3 3205279 3282443 3222850.8138
April 4 4245349 3267011 3220085.0103
May 5 3001940 3462678 3381461.5623
Sale June 6 4377766 3370531 3321724.8684
Quantity
(2012) July 7 2798343 3571978 3487945.7425
August 8 4303668 3417251 3379402.2708
September 9 2958185 3594534 3524881.6966
October 10 3623386 3467264 3435683.6366
November 11 3279115 3498489 3465227.9886
December 12 2843766 3454614 3435933.8042
January 13 4447581 3332444 3342726.5918
February 14 3675305 3555472 3516630.6757
March 15 3477156 3579438 3541606.0143
April 16 3720794 3558982 3531461.5820
May 17 3834086 3591344 3561262.5046
Sale June 18 3888913 3639893 3604204.9228
Quantity
(2013) July 19 3871342 3689697 3649017.9742
August 20 3679862 3726026 3684011.7759
September 21 3358242 3716793 3683358.6012
October 22 3361488 3645083 3632185.2482
November 23 3670362 3588364 3589577.5013
December 24 3123966 3604763 3602292.9814
January 25 4634047 3508604 3527004.3145
February 26 3772879 3733693 3701252.8332
March 27 3187110 3741530 3712526.7919
April 28 3093683 3630646 3629826.1889
May 29 4557363 3523253 3545437.2510
Sale June 30 3816956 3730075 3704714.3639
Quantity
(2014) July 31 4410887 3747451 3722381.1974
August 32 3694713 3880139 3830752.0107
September 33 3822669 3843053 3809339.4704
October 34 3689286 3838977 3811437.5384
November 35 3728654 3809038 3792210.8863
December 36 4732677 3792962 3782207.0324
January 37 3216483 3980905 3931811.0053
February 38 3453239 3828020 3819218.3773
March 39 5431651 3753064 3761613.2233

Sale
Quantity
(2015)
 April 40 4241851 4088781 4024477.1694
May 41 3909887 4119395 4058691.8103
Sale June 42 3216438 4077494 4035269.9332
Quantity
(2015) July 43 4222005 3905283 3906385.7869
August 44 3621034 3968627 3956064.2510
September 45 5162201 3899108 3903330.4895
October 46 4627177 4151727 4101476.7079
November 47 4623945 4246817 4184221.9339
December 48 4599368 4322243 4253434.3445
 Sale
Month
Quantity
January 3002666
Sale Quantity
February 4401553
5000000
March 3205279
April 4245349
4500000
May 3001940
June 4377766
July 2798343 4000000

August 4303668
September 2958185 3500000

October 3623386
November 3279115 3000000

December 2843766
January 4447581 2500000
ry ry ch ril ay ne ly st er er er er ry ry ch ril ay ne ly st er er er er ry
February 3675305 nua rua ar Ap M Ju Ju ugu mb tob mb mb nua rua ar Ap M Ju Ju ugu mb tob mb mb nua
J a F eb M A pte Oc ve ce Ja eb M A pte Oc ve ce Ja e
March 3477156 Se No De F
Se No De F

April 3720794
May 3834086
June 3888913
July 3871342 Forecast
August 3679862
5000000
September 3358242 4500000
October 3361488 4000000
November 3670362 3500000
3000000
December 3123966 2500000 actual
January 4634047
value

2000000
forecast
February 3772879 1500000
1000000
March 3187110
500000
April 3093683 0
May 4557363 ry ril ly r y il
Ju tobe uar Apr
ly r y il
Ju tobe uar Apr
ly r
Ju tobe
> >
nua Ap n n
June 3816956 Ja Oc Ja Oc Ja Oc
July 4410887
August 3694713 time
September 3822669
October 3689286
November 3728654
December 4732677
Forecast
5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000 actual
value

2000000 forecast
1500000
1000000
500000
0
 4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000 actual

value
2000000 forecast
1500000
1000000
500000
0
y il y r y il y r y il y r > >
uar Apr Jul obe uar Apr Jul obe uar Apr Jul obe
n t n t n t
Ja Oc Ja Oc Ja Oc
time
 Holt-Winter Multiplicative

uantity
Month Sale Quantity u v
January 3002666
February 4401553
March 3205279
April 4245349 3713712 -23320.63
May 3001940 3690765 -22946.65
June 4377766 3668249 -22515.95
July 2798343 3639003 -29245.86
August 4303668 3612342 -26661.18
September 2958185 3586749 -25593
October 3623386 3552605 -34143.89
e ly st r r r r ry ry h il y e ly st r r r r November 3279115 3526121 -26484.33
un Ju gu mbe tobe mbe mbe ua rua arc Apr Ma Jun Ju gu mbe tobe mbe mbe
Au pte Oc ve ce Jan eb M Au pte Oc ve ce December 2843766 3482050 -44070.72
e o De F No De
S N Se January 4447581 3471503 -10547.41
February 3675305 3458002 -13500.69
March 3477156 3453880 -4122.244
April 3720794 3453031 -849.0487
May 3834086 3458068 5037.3358
June 3888913 3464526 6457.4757
July 3871342 3482898 18372.188
August 3679862 3501663 18765.441
September 3358242 3515096 13432.858
October 3361488 3520328 5232.0743
actual
forecast November 3670362 3527870 7541.3881
December 3123966 3526218 -1651.355
January 4634047 3542260 16041.82
February 3772879 3559208 16948.102
> > March 3187110 3568746 9538.092
April 3093683 3571221 2475.3022
May 4557363 3581177 9955.2993
June 3816956 3591821 10643.73
July 4410887 3618507 26686.35
August 3694713 3650404 31896.663
September 3822669 3674441 24037.141
October 3689286 3695078 20637.808
November 3728654 3711847 16768.247
December 4732677 3748148 36301.191
>
>
>
actual
forecast
 actual
forecast >

alpha beta gamma

0.0166786 1 0.411446
> >
 Holt-Winter Additive sig level

s forecast Month Sale Quantity u v s forecast

0.808535 January 3002666 -711046
1.1852167 February 4401553 687841.25
0.8630931 March 3205279 -508433
1.1431552 April 4245349 3713712 -23320.63 531637.25
0.8105224 2983810.458 May 3001940 3690808 -22904.19 -701322 2979345.375
1.1885923 4347159.505 June 4377766 3668309 -22498.32 697318.21 4355744.625
0.8243732 3146607.19 July 2798343 3639562 -28747 -654337 3137378.181
1.1629966 4126513.075 August 4303668 3613787 -25775.68 601016.77 4142452.474
0.8163779 2906274.668 September 2958185 3589329 -24457.94 -670554 2886688.787
1.1191943 4232762.893 October 3623386 3553097 -36231.6 422407.72 4262188.877
0.8678122 2900525.078 November 3279115 3524543 -28553.56 -475058 2862527.982
1.0205114 4070065.567 December 2843766 3472892 -51651.81 61681.379 4097006.658
1.0076142 2806690.27 January 4447581 3452515 -20376.66 59709.555 2750686.309
1.0960078 3873481.413 February 3675305 3428835 -23680.22 345270.87 3854546.039
0.9249731 2989180.309 March 3477156 3415237 -13597.46 -239630 2930096.432
1.0439774 3520516.924 April 3720794 3406385 -8852.027 172485.46 3463321.219
1.0492205 3478467.414 May 3834086 3404479 -1906.499 221885 3457242.802
1.1069059 3795590.519 June 3888913 3405172 693.53401 405980.65 3747843.145
1.0017308 3210566.073 July 3871342 3418862 13689.21 63814.507 3166236.244
1.0468215 3655246.714 August 3679862 3433930 15068.31 204686.95 3605036.192
1.010609 3693706.06 September 3358242 3443236 9306.0784 87339.074 3670883.15
1.0443551 3905749.434 October 3361488 3443381 145.32369 192080.49 3858522.635
1.0176372 3531662.303 November 3670362 3446531 3149.9329 133971 3507341.062
0.9806214 3700944.029 December 3123966 3439905 -6625.81 -23573 3654368.043
1.1330589 3561958.948 January 4634047 3453801 13895.585 566505.89 3520618.617
1.0508058 3716130.646 February 3772879 3469781 15980.147 240754.23 3659777.018
0.966381 3639229.556 March 3187110 3477788 8006.5656 -52209.11 3619732.226
0.9335767 3508942.114 April 3093683 3479002 1214.1043 -182174 3462221.257
1.1904676 4049208.897 May 4557363 3489627 10625.64 786261.69 4046721.749
1.0556914 3773582.501 June 3816956 3501653 12025.437 273439 3741007.264
1.0703118 3481353.159 July 4410887 3531177 29523.984 356375.34 3461469.158
0.9659005 3403067.414 August 3694713 3566528 35351.561 -46102.65 3378526.439
1.1286984 4383659.17 September 3822669 3591458 24929.438 542909.06 4388141.626
1.0321324 3904451.31 October 3689286 3612691 21233.318 187136 3889826.22
1.0432453 3976975.051 November 3728654 3629102 16410.972 243775.39 3990299.791
1.0880055 3601471.159 December 4732677 3666400 37298 441601.58 3599410.43
1.1286984 4271501.544 > 542909.06 4246607.174
1.0321324 3943520.252 > 187136 3928132.069
1.0432453 4023850.965 > 243775.39 4022069.502
1.0880055 4235989.036 > 441601.58 4257193.697

MAE MSE MAPE alpha beta gamma MAE MSE

438187.24 3.42481E+11 0.1172561 0.0184308 1 0.4384333 451481.73 3.57809E+11
 0.05

s.e. lower upper

22594.625 4311460 4400029

22309.8414 3093652 3181105
196587.819 3757147 4527758
188368.494 2517493 3255884
171489.047 3926077 4598301
304168.698 2266368 3458688
322635.647 3464652 4729361
536104.989 1699940 3801433
758560.044 2367796 5341296
721862 1515273 4344920
707757.122 2076143 4850500
681689.923 2121155 4793330
663233.606 2447929 5047757
640219.009 1911430 4421042
644747.984 2341353 4868719
624554.759 2446778 4894988
610633.366 2661703 5055342
604882.278 2321794 4692889
589935.861 2498115 4810621
587102.564 2369919 4671318
622342.395 2440008 4879546
608511.718 2427071 4812393
601934.029 2282452 4641990
594042.846 2882419 5211024
590932.827 2582800 4899214
579648.712 2325379 4597560
597439.06 2207567 4549485
589708.661 3232334 5543949
588889.541 2735624 5044029
580148.034 2853231 5127369
572645.551 2477046 4721775
598171.794 3074212 5419002
598578.048 2754941 5101323
599491.113 2847089 5197050
601110.916 3079038 5435349

MAPE
0.12056859
 15900
15954

₹17,865.24 10 2.30258509
=FV(0.06,3,,-15000,)' 100 4.60517019
1000 6.90775528
₹1,157.63
=FV(0.05,3,,-1000)'

₹597.03 69 72
=FV(0.03,6,,-500)' 13.8 14.4
10.6153846 11.0769231
₹1,125.51 9.2 9.6
=FV(0.03,4,,-1000)' 8.625 9

₹1,093.81
=FV(0.03,6,,-1000)'
704.960596
46.1914016 =1000/1.418519'
=2.3*(2/(12*LN(1+10%/12)))'
92.3828031 ₹704.96
=4.6*(2/(12*LN(1+10%/12)))' =PV(0.06,6,,-1000)'

₹1,736.44
₹1,736.44
 Data on sales of shampoo
Sale
Month Quantity
(2012)
January 1 3002666
February 2 4401553
March 3 3205279
April 4 4245349
May 5 3001940
Sale June 6 4377766
Quantity
(2012) July 7 2798343
August 8 4303668
September 9 2958185
October 10 3623386
November 11 3279115
December 12 2843766
January 13 4447581
February 14 3675305
March 15 3477156
April 16 3720794
May 17 3834086
Sale June 18 3888913
Quantity
(2013) July 19 3871342
August 20 3679862
September 21 3358242
October 22 3361488
November 23 3670362
December 24 3123966
January 25 4634047
February 26 3772879
March 27 3187110
April 28 3093683
May 29 4557363
Sale June 30 3816956
Quantity
(2014) July 31 4410887
August 32 3694713
September 33 3822669
October 34 3689286
November 35 3728654
December 36 4732677
January 37 3216483
February 38 3453239
March 39 5431651

Sale
Quantity
(2015)
 April 40 4241851
May 41 3909887
Sale June 42 3216438
Quantity
(2015) July 43 4222005
August 44 3621034
September 45 5162201
October 46 4627177
November 47 4623945
December 48 4599368