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5.QFP - Probability-1

The document presents a series of probability questions related to various scenarios, including account collection methods, court challenges to auto insurance rates, picnic cancellations due to thunderstorms, statistical independence of events, customer discontent in a restaurant, card drawing probabilities, pumping station failure analysis, and improving computer resistance to failures. Each question requires the application of probability concepts to derive specific outcomes or recommendations. The scenarios involve calculating conditional probabilities, evaluating independence, and making informed decisions based on statistical data.

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22 views2 pages

5.QFP - Probability-1

The document presents a series of probability questions related to various scenarios, including account collection methods, court challenges to auto insurance rates, picnic cancellations due to thunderstorms, statistical independence of events, customer discontent in a restaurant, card drawing probabilities, pumping station failure analysis, and improving computer resistance to failures. Each question requires the application of probability concepts to derive specific outcomes or recommendations. The scenarios involve calculating conditional probabilities, evaluating independence, and making informed decisions based on statistical data.

Uploaded by

rubaiyaparvin799
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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QFP- Probability

Q1. Amit Singh, a credit manager at the National Bank, knows that the company uses three methods
to encourage collection of delinquent accounts. From past collection records, he learns that 70
percent of the accounts are called on personally, 20 percent are phoned, and 10 percent are sent a
letter. The probabilities of collecting an overdue amount from an account with the three methods are
0.75, 0.60 and 0.65 respectively. Amit has just received payment from a past due account. What is the
probability that this account:

(a) Was called on personally?

(b) Received a phone call?

(c) Received a letter?

Q2. A public-interest group was planning to make a court challenge to auto insurance rates in one of
three cities: New Delhi, Mumbai, or Chennai. The probability that it would choose New Delhi was 0.40;
Mumbai, 0.35; and Chennai, 0.25. The group also knew that it had a 60 percent chance of a favorable
ruling if it chose Mumbai, 45 percent if it chose New Delhi, and 35 percent if it chose Chennai. If the
group did receive a favorable ruling, which city did it most likely choose?

Q3. EconOcon is planning its company picnic. The only thing that will cancel the picnic is a
thunderstorm. The Weather Service has predicted dry conditions with probability 0.2, moist
conditions with probability 0.45, and wet conditions with probability 0.35. If the probability of a
thunderstorm given dry conditions is 0.3, given moist conditions is 0.6, and given wet conditions is
0.8, what is the probability of a thunderstorm? If we know the picnic was indeed canceled, what is the
probability moist conditions were in effect?

Q4. Which of the following pairs of events are statistically independent?

(a) The times until failure of a calculator and of a second calculator marketed by a different firm

(b) The life-spans of the current U.S. and Russian presidents.

(c) The amounts of settlements in asbestos poisoning cases in Dhanbad and Kishan Garh.

(d) The takeover of a company and a rise in the price of its stock.

(e) The frequency of organ donation in a community and the predominant religious orientation

of that community.

Q5. A restaurant is experiencing discontentment among its customers. Historically it is known that
there are three factors responsible for discontent amongst the customers viz. food quality, services
quality, and interior décor. By conducting an analysis, it assesses the probabilities of discontentment
with the three factors as 0.40, 0.35 and 0.25, respectively. By conducting a survey among customers,
it also evaluates the probabilities of a customer going away discontented on account of these factors
as 0.6, 0.8 and 0.5, respectively. The restaurant manager knows that a customer is discontented, what
is the probability that it is due to service quality?

Q6. Determine the probabilities of the following events in drawing a card from a standard deck of

52 cards:

(a) A seven.

(b) A black card.

(c) An ace or a king.

(d) A black two or a black three.

(e) A red face card (king, queen, or jack)

Q7. Samreen, an owner of a big business house, is considering to purchase one of the two pumping
stations. The cost of purchase of both is same but the main concern is chances of failure of the
pumping stations under consideration. Each station is susceptible to two kinds of failure: pump failure
and leakage. When either (or both) occur, the station must be shut down. The data at hand indicate
that the following probabilities prevail:

Recommend, which pumping station, should be purchased by Samreen. Justify your answer.

Q8. The HAL Corporation wishes to improve the resistance of its personal computer to disk-drive and
keyboard failures. At present, the design of the computer is such that disk-drive failures occur only
one-third as often as keyboard failures. The probability of simultaneous disk-drive and keyboard
failures is 0.05. If the computer is 80 percent resistant to disk-drive and/or keyboard failure, how low
must the disk-drive failure probability be?

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