Scribd
Upload
7 views18 pages

Problems

The document presents a series of examples involving probability calculations in various scenarios, including defective products, fraud detection, and medical diagnoses. Each example poses specific questions regarding conditional probabilities, total probabilities, and the application of statistical principles. The scenarios range from selecting containers with defects to analyzing the reliability of witness testimonies and medical testing accuracy.

Uploaded by

bilgehancan550
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
7 views18 pages

Problems

The document presents a series of examples involving probability calculations in various scenarios, including defective products, fraud detection, and medical diagnoses. Each example poses specific questions regarding conditional probabilities, total probabilities, and the application of statistical principles. The scenarios range from selecting containers with defects to analyzing the reliability of witness testimonies and medical testing accuracy.

Uploaded by

bilgehancan550
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 18

Example #1

A batch of 500 containers for frozen orange juice contains 5 that are
defective. Two are selected, at random, without replacement from
the batch.
a) What is the probability that the second one selected is defective
given that the first one was defective?
b) What is the probability that both are defective?
c) What is the probability that both are acceptable?
Example #2
Continuation of Example #1. Three containers are selected, at
random, without replacement, from the batch.
a) What is the probability that the third one selected is defective
given that the first and second one selected were defective?
b) What is the probability that the third one selected is defective
given that the first one selected was defective and the second
one selected was okay?
c) What is the probability that all three are defective?
Example #3
Software to detect fraud in consumer phone cards tracks the
number of metropolitan areas where calls originate each day. It is
found that 1% of the legitimate users originate calls from two or
more metropolitan areas in a single day. However, 30% of
fraudulent users originate calls from two or more metropolitan
areas in a single day. The proportion of fraudulent users is 0.01%. If
the same user originates calls from two or more metropolitan areas
in a single day, what is the probability that the user is fraudulent?
Example #4
Semiconductor lasers used in optical storage
products require higher power levels for write
operations than for read operations. High-power-
level operations lower the useful life of the laser.
Lasers in products used for backup of higher
speed magnetic disks primarily write, and the
probability that the useful life exceeds five years is
0.95. Lasers that are in products that are used for
main storage spend approximately an equal
amount of time reading and writing, and the
probability that the useful life exceeds five years is
0.995. Now, 25% of the products from a
manufacturer are used for backup and 75% of the
products are used for main storage.
Let 𝐴 denote the event that a laser’s useful life
exceeds five years, and let 𝐵 denote the event that
a laser is in a product that is used for backup.
Use a tree diagram to determine the following:
Example #5

A cab was involved in a hit and run accident at night. Two cab
companies, the Green and the Blue, operate in the city. 85% of the
cabs in the city are Green and 15% are Blue.
A witness identified the cab as Blue. The court tested the reliability
of the witness under the same circumstances that existed on the
night of the accident and concluded that the witness correctly
identified each one of the two colors 80% of the time and failed 20%
of the time.
What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was
Blue rather than Green knowing that this witness identified it as
Blue?
Example #6

In a certain region of the country, it is known from past experience


that the probability of selecting an adult over 40 years of age with
cancer is 0.05. If the probability of a doctor correctly diagnosing a
person with cancer as having the disease is 0.78 and the probability
of incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as having the
disease is 0.06.
a) What is the probability that an adult over 40 years of age is
diagnosed as having the cancer?
b) What is the probability that a person is diagnosed as having
cancer actually has the disease?
Example #7

A producer of a certain type of electronic component ships to


suppliers in lots of twenty. Suppose that 60% of all such lots
contain no defective components, 30% contain one defective
component, and 10% contain two defective components. A lot is
picked, two components from the lot are randomly selected and
tested, and neither is defective.
a) What is the probability that zero defective components exist in
the lot?
b) What is the probability that one defective exists in the lot?
c) What is the probability that two defectives exist in the lot?
Example #8

Mr. X who works in the office building D is selected for observation in a study of the parking
problem on a college campus. Each day, assume that Mr. X will check the parking lots A, B, and
C in that sequence, as shown in the figure below, and will park his car as soon as he finds an
empty space. Assume also that there are only these three parking lots available, and no street
parking is allowed, among which lots A and B are free—whereas lot C is metered.
Suppose that from prior statistical observations, the probabilities of getting a space on each
weekday morning in lots A, B, and C are 0.20, 0.15, and 0.80, respectively. However, if lot A is
full, the probability that Mr. X will find a space in lot B is only 0.05. Also, if both lots A and B are
full, Mr. X will only have a probability of 40% of getting a parking space in lot C. Determine the
following:
a) The probability that Mr. X will not find free parking on a weekday morning.
b) The probability that Mr. X will be able to park his car on campus on a weekday morning.
c) If Mr.X successfully parked his car on campus on a weekday morning, what is the
probability that his parking is free?
Example #9

A rare disease infects 1 out of 1000 people in a population. There is


a good but not perfect test to diagnose this disease. The test comes
positive 99% of the time if the person has the disease. On the other
hand, the test also produces some false positives. About 2% of the
uninfected patients also test positive.
You just tested positive. What are your chances of having the
disease?

You might also like