Probability and

Counting Rules

Presented by:
LAURENCE MARSE B. DAGARAGA
Probability and Counting Rules 4
Outline
4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
4-2 The Addition Rules for Probability
4-3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
4-4 Counting Rules
4-5 Probability and Counting Rules
Probability and Counting Rules
Objectives
1 Determine sample spaces and find the probability of
an event, using classical probability or empirical
probability.
2 Find the probability of compound events, using the
addition rules.
3 Find the probability of compound events, using the
multiplication rules.
4 Find the conditional probability of an event.
Probability and Counting Rules
Objectives
5 Find the total number of outcomes in a sequence of
events, using the fundamental counting rule.
6 Find the number of ways that r objects can be
selected from n objects, using the permutation rule.
7 Find the number of ways that r objects can be
selected from n objects without regard to order, using
the combination rule.
8 Find the probability of an event, using the counting
rules.
 Probability
•Probability can be defined as the chance
of an event occurring. It can be used to
quantify what the “odds” are that a
specific event will occur. Some examples
of how probability is used everyday would
be weather forecasting, “75% chance of
snow” or for setting insurance rates.
4-1 Sample Spaces and Probability
• A probability experiment is a chance
process that leads to well-defined
results called outcomes.
• An outcome is the result of a single trial
of a probability experiment.
• A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
• An event consists of outcomes.
 Sample Spaces
Experiment Sample Space
Toss a coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false True, False
question
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT
Example 4-1: Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Total of 36 outcomes
Section 4-1 Exercise #1

If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of

getting these results.

a. A sum of 6
b. Doubles
c. A sum of 7 or 11
d. A sum greater than 9
e. A sum less than or equal to 4
a. A sum of 6
There are 62 or 36 outcomes.
There are 5 ways to get a sum of 6.
They are (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), and (5,1).
5
The probability then is .
36

b. Doubles

There are six ways to get doubles. They are (1,1), (2,2),
(3,3), (4,4), (5,5), and (6,6).
6 1
The probability is then = .
36 6
c. A sum of 7 or 11
There are six ways to get a sum of 7. They are (1,6), (2,5),
(3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
There are two ways to get a sum of 11. They are (5,6) and
(6,5). 8 2
The probability then is = .
36 9
d. A sum of greater than 9

To get a sum greater than nine, one must roll a 10, 11, or 12.
There are six ways to get a 10, 11, or 12. They are (4,6), (5,5),
(6,4), (6,5), (5,6), and (6,6).
6 1
The probability then is = .
36 6
e. The patient has had 1 or 2 tests done.
Number of Number
Tests of
Performed Patients
0 12
1 8
2 2
3 3
4 or more 5
8+2
P(1 or 2 tests) =
30
= 10 = 1
30 3
 Example 4-3: Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of the children if
a family has three children. Use B for boy and G for
girl.

BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

 Example 4-4: Gender of Children
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the
gender of three children in a family.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces
to determine the numerical probability
that an event will happen and assumes
that all outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur.

nE # of desired outcomes

PE  
n  S  Total # of possible outcomes
Sample Spaces and Probability
Rounding Rule for Probabilities
Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions
or rounded to two or three decimal places. When the
probability of an event is an extremely small decimal,
it is permissible to round the decimal to the first
nonzero digit after the decimal point.
 Example 4-6: Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the probability that
two of the three children are girls.

Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Three outcomes (BGG, GBG, GGB) have two girls.

The probability of having two of three children being

girls is 3/8.
Probability Rule 1
The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or
decimal) between and including 0 and 1.

This is denoted by 0  P(E)  1.

Probability Rule 2
If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members
in the sample space), its probability is 0.
Probability Rule 3
If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
Probability Rule 4
The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample
space is 1.
 Exercise 4-9: Rolling a Die
When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of
getting a number less than 7?

Since all outcomes—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6—are less than 7,

the probability is

The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain.

 Sample Spaces and Probability
The complement of an event E ,
denoted by E , is the set of outcomes
in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event E.


P
E =
1
P
E
 Example 4-10: Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.

Event Complement of the Event

Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
Selecting a letter of the alphabet Getting a consonant (assume y is a
and getting a vowel consonant)
Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April, May,
month that begins with a J August, September, October,
November, or December
Selecting a day of the week and Getting Saturday or Sunday
getting a weekday
 Example 4-11: Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an
1
industrialized country of the world is 5 , find the
probability that a person does not live in an
industrialized country.
P Not living in industrialized country 
= 1  P  living in industrialized country 
1 4
 1 
5 5
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the likelihood
of outcomes.

f frequency of desired class

PE  
n Sum of all frequencies
 Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
f
A 22 P O 
B 5 n
AB 2 21

O 21 50
Total 50
 Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
22 5
A 22 P  A or B   
B 5 50 50
AB 2 27

O 21 50
Total 50
 Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
P  neither A nor O 
A 22
B 5 5 2
 
AB 2 50 50
O 21 7

Total 50 50
 Example 4-13: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P  not AB 
B 5  1  P  AB 
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21  1  
50 50 25
Total 50
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Subjective probability uses a
probability value based on an
educated guess or estimate, employing
opinions and inexact information.

Examples: weather forecasting,

predicting outcomes of sporting events
 4.2 Addition Rules for Probability
• Two events are mutually exclusive
events if they cannot occur at the
same time (i.e., they have no
outcomes in common)
Addition Rules
P  A or B   P  A   P  B  Mutually Exclusive
P  A or B   P  A   P  B   P  A and B  Not M. E.
 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6

Mutually Exclusive
 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Not Mutually Exclusive

 Example 4-15: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less
than 4

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Mutually Exclusive
 Example 4-18: R&D Employees
The corporate research and development centers for
three local companies have the following number of
employees:
U.S. Steel 110
Alcoa 750
Bayer Material Science 250
If a research employee is selected at random, find the
probability that the employee is employed by U.S. Steel
or Alcoa.
Example 4-18: R&D Employees
 Example 4-21: Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
P  Nurse or Male   P  Nurse   P  Male   P  Male Nurse 
8 3 1 10
   
13 13 13 13
 4.3 Multiplication Rules

Two events A and B are independent events if the

fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B
occurring.

Multiplication Rules
P  A and B   P  A   P  B  Independent
P  A and B   P  A   P  B A  Dependent
 Example 4-23: Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability
of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

Independent Events
P  Head and 4   P  Head   P  4 
1 1 1
  
2 6 12
This problem could be solved using sample space.
H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6
 Example 4-26: Survey on Stress
A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say they
suffer great stress at least once a week. If three people
are selected at random, find the probability that all
three will say that they suffer great stress at least once
a week.

Independent Events
P  S and S and S  P  S  P  S  P  S
  0.46  0.46  0.46 
 0.097
 Example 4-28: University Crime
At a university in western Pennsylvania, there were 5
burglaries reported in 2003, 16 in 2004, and 32 in 2005.
If a researcher wishes to select at random two
burglaries to further investigate, find the probability
that both will have occurred in 2004.

Dependent Events
P  C1 and C2   P  C1   P  C 2 C1 
16 15 60
  
53 52 689
 4.3 Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability that the

second event B occurs given that the first event A
has occurred.

Conditional Probability
P  A and B 
P  B A 
P  A
 Example 4-33: Parking Tickets
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and
gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability that
Sam cannot find a legal parking space and has to park in
the no-parking zone is 0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at
school and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the
probability that he will get a parking ticket.

N = parking in a no-parking zone

T = getting a ticket


PNan
dT 0.06

PT 
|N   0.30
PN
 0.20
 Example 4-34: Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat. The results of the survey are
shown.
 Example 4-34: Women in the Military
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes (Y),
given that the respondent was a female (F).

8

PFa
ndY
YF PF 50  50  25
1
00 8 4
P

1
00
 Example 4-34: Women in the Military
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male (M),
given that the respondent answered no (N).

18

PNa
ndM
M PN 6 1
00 18 3
P N  
 0 60 10
1
00
 Example 4-37: Bow Ties
The Neckware Association of America reported that 3% of
ties sold in the United States are bow ties (B). If 4 customers
who purchased a tie are randomly selected, find the
probability that at least 1 purchased a bow tie.



P
B
0.
0
3,
P
B

1
0.
0
30
.
9
7

P
n
obo
w
ti
e
sP

B
P

B
P

B
P
B


0
.9
7

0.
9
7
0
.9
7

0.
9
7
0
.8
8
5
P  at least 1 bow tie   1  P  no bow ties 
 1  0.885  0.115
EXAMPLE
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:

a. A king or a queen or a jack.

b. A club or a heart or a spade.
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
d. An ace or a diamond or a heart.
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
a. A king or a queen or a jack.
There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 4 jacks,
hence:
12 3
P (king or queen or jack) = =
52 13
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
b. A club or a heart or a spade.
There are 13 clubs, 13 hearts, and 13
spades, hence:

P(club or heart or spade)

13 + 13 + 13 39 3
P= = =
52 52 4
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 13
diamonds but the king and queen of
diamonds were counted twice, hence:
P(king or queen or diamond)
= P(king) + P(queen) + P(diamond)
– P(king or queen of diamonds)
4 4 13 2 19
P= + + – =
52 52 52 52 52
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
d. An ace or a diamond or a heart.
There are 4 aces, 13 diamonds and 13
hearts. There is one ace of diamonds
and one ace of hearts, hence:
P(ace or diamond or heart)
= P(ace) + P(diamond) + P(heart)
– P(ace of hearts or ace of diamonds)

4 13 13 2 28 7
P= + + – = =
52 52 52 52 52 13
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
There are 4 nines, 4 tens, 13 spades, and
13 clubs. There is one nine of spades,
one ten of spades, one nine of clubs, and
one ten of clubs, hence:
P ( 9 or 10 or spade or club)
= P(9) + P(10) + P(spade) + P(club)
– P(9 of spades or 9 of clubs)
– P(10 of spades or 10 of clubs)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
P ( 9 or 10 or spade or club)
= P(9) + P(10) + P(spade) + P(club)
– P(9 of spades or 9 of clubs)
– P(10 of spades or 10 of clubs)
4 4 13 13 2 2
P= + + + – –
52 52 52 52 52 52
30 15
= =
52 26