Statistical Analysis

with
Software Application

AE 09 (Lec) :Course code

ROCELLE ANN G. TERCO :Facilitator
 At the end of the session, you should be able to:
• illustrated a random variable (discrete
and continuous);

learning • found the possible values of a random

variable;
objectives • illustrated a probability distribution;
• constructed the probability mass
function; and
• computed probabilities
 ❑ Review
❑ Overview of the Topic
Flow of ❑ Examples of Random Variables presented
using Probability Distribution
session ❑ Expected Value and Variance
❑ Checkpoint
Chapter V

DISCRETE
Concept Map

may be described by
Random Variable
Random Variable Probability Distribution

Properties Types Discrete Continuous

Distribution Distribution

Probability Mass
Expected
Function
Variance Discrete Continuous
Value
Chapter 5.1

Random Variables
Random Variables

Uncertain
outcome

variables whose possible values are the

numerical outcomes of a random experiment
Types of Random Variables

Discrete Continuous
• Countable • Measurable
• Take only specific values • Take any value within
• Whole numbers a range
• Real numbers
Examples of Random Variables
𝐴 = the sum of the numbers that turn up when a pair of dice is tossed.
𝐵 = the distance leaped in meters by a long-jumper in a competition
𝑊 =the length of time in minutes that a scheduled airplane flight is
delayed.
𝑋 = the number of correct answers a student get in a 10-item True-False
test.

Discrete Random Variable: 𝐴 and 𝑋

Continuous Random Variable: 𝐵 and 𝑊

Example 1
If a football team plays for three consecutive games,
the sample space is the set of all possible outcomes
of the events.

If W stands for a win and L stands for a loss, find the

possible sample space of the three consecutive
games and the probability that the team will win in 3
games.
Solution 1
Probability Distribution Function
Function 𝑃(𝑋) that shows the relative probability that
each outcome of an experiment will happen.

Sample Space
{𝑊𝑊𝑊, 𝑊𝑊𝐿, 𝑊𝐿𝑊, 𝐿𝑊𝑊, 𝑊𝐿𝐿, 𝐿𝑊𝐿, 𝐿𝐿𝑊, 𝐿𝐿𝐿}
Sample Point PDF
𝑊𝑊𝑊 = 3 𝑊𝐿𝐿 = 1 𝒙 0 1 2 3
𝑊𝑊𝐿 = 2 𝐿𝑊𝐿 = 1 𝑷(𝑿) 1 3 3 1
𝑊𝐿𝑊 = 2 𝐿𝐿𝑊 = 1 8 8 8 8
𝐿𝑊𝑊 = 2 𝐿𝐿𝐿 = 0
where x is the number of wins and
𝑃 𝑋 is the probability of winning X
number of times in 3 games.
Probability Mass Function
A probability distribution function of a discrete random
variable, which assigns probability to each sample point.
It is denoted by 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥 .
Can be expressed in tabular, graphical, or formula form.

Properties:
• The probability of each value of the discrete random variable is
between 0 and 1, inclusive.

• The sum of all the probabilities is 1.

Example 2
In a game of chance, a pair of
dice is being thrown and the
sum of the values that will turn
up will be the basis of winning.

You will win if you get a sum of 3

to 9. Find your probability of
winning.
Solution 2
Sample Space
2nd Die (Columns)
Outcomes
1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1st Die (Rows)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
No. of
sample 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
points
Solution 2
Probability Mass Function

𝑺𝒖𝒎 (𝒚) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
𝑷(𝒀 = 𝒚)
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

Probability of getting a sum of 3 to 9:

2 3 4 5 6 5 4
𝑃 3≤𝑌≤9 = + + + + + +
36 36 36 36 36 36 36
29
=
36

𝟐𝟗
Your probability of wining this game is 𝟑𝟔 or 80.56%.
Try this!
𝑺𝒖𝒎 (𝒚) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
𝑷(𝒀 = 𝒚)
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

Using the same sample space, find the probability of the following:

a) Getting a sum of less than 5.

b) Getting a sum of greater than 12.
c) Getting a sum of 7 or 8.
d) Getting a sum of less than or equal to 10 but greater than 5.
Checkpoint: (10mins)
An experiment is consisting of rolling a pair of dice. Let 𝑌
be the random variable representing the absolute value
of the difference of the numbers that come up.
Construct the probability mass function of 𝑌 and answer
the following:

Find the probability of randomly getting an absolute value that

is (a) two, (b) at most three, and (c) between two and five.
Solution
The experiment can result to 36 possible pairings of the
dice. There are 6 possible values of the random variable
𝑌, namely, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, from 36 sample points.

2nd Die (Columns)

Outcomes
1 2 3 4 5 6

1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2 1 0 1 2 3 4
1st Die (Rows)

3 2 1 0 1 2 3

4 3 2 1 0 1 2

5 4 3 2 1 0 1

6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Solution
By counting the number of sample points which correspond to each
value of the random variable 𝑌, we can compute the corresponding
probabilities. The value are summarized in the following table.
𝒚 0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of
sample 6 10 8 6 4 2
points

The probability mass function expressed in tabular form:

𝒚 0 1 2 3 4 5

6 𝟏 10 𝟓 8 𝟐 6 𝟏 4 𝟏 2 𝟏
𝑷(𝒀 = 𝒚) = = = = = =
36 𝟔 36 𝟏𝟖 36 𝟗 36 𝟔 36 𝟗 36 𝟏𝟖
Solution
𝒚 0 1 2 3 4 5

𝟏 𝟓 𝟐 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
𝑷(𝒀)
𝟔 𝟏𝟖 𝟗 𝟔 𝟗 𝟏𝟖

The probability mass function expressed in formula and graphical form:

𝟏
, 𝒊𝒇 𝒚 = 𝟎, 𝟑
𝟔
𝟓
, 𝒊𝒇 𝒚 = 𝟏
𝟏𝟖
𝟐
𝑷(𝒀) = , 𝒊𝒇 𝒚 = 𝟐
𝟗
𝟏
, 𝒊𝒇 𝒚 = 𝟒
𝟗
𝟏
, 𝒊𝒇 𝒚 = 𝟓
𝟏𝟖
Solution
Find the probability of randomly getting an absolute value that is (a) two, (b) at most three, and (c)
between two and five.

𝒚 0 1 2 3 4 5

𝟏 𝟓 𝟐 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
𝑷(𝒀)
𝟔 𝟏𝟖 𝟗 𝟔 𝟗 𝟏𝟖

(a)Two
𝟐
𝑃 𝑌 = 2 = 𝟗 𝒐𝒓 𝟐𝟐. 𝟐𝟐%

(b) at most three

1 5 2 1 𝟓
𝑃 𝑌 ≤ 3 = 6 + 18 + 9 + 6 = 𝟔 𝒐𝒓 𝟖𝟑. 𝟑𝟑%

(c) between two and five

1 1 𝟓
𝑃 2 < 𝑌 < 5 = 6 + 9 = 𝟏𝟖 𝒐𝒓 𝟐𝟕. 𝟕𝟖%
Chapter 5.2

Expected Value
and Variance
Expected
value &
Variance
of Random
Variables
Mean of Discrete Random Variable
The mean of a random variable represents what you would expect to happen over
thousands of trials. It is also called the expected value.

If X is a discrete random variable associated with an experiment, the expected value (E) or
mathematical expectation of X is defined as:

𝑬 𝑿 = 𝝁 = ෍ 𝒙𝒊 ∙ 𝑷(𝒙𝒊 )
𝒊=𝟏

Each value of X is multiplied by its corresponding probability and the

products are added.
Variance & Standard Deviation
of Discrete Random Variable
Just like the ordinary variance, the variance of a discrete random variable is a measure that
describes the amount of spread of the different values of 𝑥 about the mean.

Variance 𝒏 Alternative formula:

2
𝝈𝟐 = ෍(𝒙𝒊 −𝝁)𝟐 ∙ 𝑷(𝒙𝒊 ) 𝜎2 = 𝜇(𝑋 2 ) − 𝜇 𝑋
𝒊=𝟏

Standard Deviation

𝜎= 𝜎2
Example 1
The organizing committee of a high school reunion placed 150
balls inside a box. What would be the fair price to pay for a
chance to draw a ball from the box?

₱500 ₱1000 ₱5000 ₱0

10 pcs 5 pcs 1 pc 134 pcs

 For the price to be fair, it should be equal to the
player’s expected winning from the game.

Example 1 Solution
If A represents the amount a player can win, then
The organizing committee of a
the possible values of A are: 500, 1 000, 5 000 and
high school reunion placed 150 1 1 1
0 with corresponding probabilities of 15, 30, 150,
balls inside a box. Ten of the
67
balls are red, five are blue, one and 75, respectively.
is gold, and the rest are white.
A player has a chance to draw
one ball from the box. A red 𝒂 500 1000 5,000 0
ball will win him Php500, a 1 1 1 67
𝑷(𝑨)
blue ball will win him 15 30 150 75
Php1,000, and the single gold
ball can give him a prize of 67 1 1 1
Php5,000. However, he will not 𝐸 𝐴 =0 + 500 + 1000 + 5000 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎
75 15 30 150
win anything if he draws a
white ball. What would be the The result indicates that the fair amount to
fair price to pay for a chance to charge anyone who wants to try this luck in the
draw a ball from the box? game is Php100.
 For the price to be fair, it should be equal to the
player’s expected winning from the game.

Example 1 Check:
The organizing committee of a 𝒂 500 1000 5,000 0
high school reunion placed 150
1 1 1 67
balls inside a box. Ten of the 𝑷(𝑨)
15 30 150 75
balls are red, five are blue, one
is gold, and the rest are white. 𝐸 𝐴 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎
A player has a chance to draw
1 1 1 67
one ball from the box. A red 0 = 400 + 900 + 4900 + (−100)
ball will win him Php500, a 15 30 150 75
blue ball will win him
Php1,000, and the single gold
ball can give him a prize of
Php5,000. However, he will not
win anything if he draws a
white ball. What would be the The result indicates that the charge of Php100 in
fair price to pay for a chance to the game is fair for everyone.
draw a ball from the box?
Example 2
A car insurance company offers to pay Php500,000 if a car is
stolen or is destroyed beyond repair. The insurance policy
costs 𝑃ℎ𝑝24,000 and the probability that the company will
need to pay the amount of insurance is 0.002. Find the
expected value of the insurance to the policy owner.
Example 2 Solution:
A car insurance company If X represents the policy owner’s net gain, its
offers to pay Php500,000 if a possible values are:
car is stolen or is destroyed 476,000 and -24,000
beyond repair. The insurance
policy costs 𝑃ℎ𝑝24,000 and
𝑋 = 476,000 with the associated probability of 0.002
the probability that the
𝑋 = −24,000 with the associated probability of 0.998
company will need to pay (1-0.002)
the amount of insurance is
0.002. Find the expected
𝒙 476,000 −24,000
value of the insurance to car
owners. 𝑷(𝑿) 0.002 0.998

The negative expected value shows

that the policy is designed to the The expected value of the insurance to its buyer is:
advantage of the insurance company
but car owners still buy these 𝐸 𝑋 = 476,000 0.002 + −24,000 0.998 = −𝟐𝟑, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
insurance policies because the security
in the event of loss is worth the cost to
them.
Example 2 Solution:
A car insurance company If X represents the policy owner’s net gain, its
offers to pay Php500,000 if a possible values are:
car is stolen or is destroyed 476,000 and -24,000
beyond repair. The insurance
policy costs 𝑃ℎ𝑝24,000 and
𝑋 = 476,000 with the associated probability of 0.002
the probability that the
𝑋 = −24,000 with the associated probability of 0.998
company will need to pay (1-0.002)
the amount of insurance is
0.002. Find the expected
𝒙 476,000 −24,000
value of the insurance to car
owners. 𝑷(𝑿) 0.002 0.998

The negative expected value shows

that the policy is designed to the The expected value of the insurance to its buyer is:
advantage of the insurance company
but car owners still buy these 𝐸 𝑋 = 476,000 0.002 + −24,000 0.998 = −𝟐𝟑, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
insurance policies because the security
in the event of loss is worth the cost to
them.
Example 3
The report of a weather bureau on the forecast of the number
of typhoons entering the country’s area of responsibility is
manifested in the following probability distribution:
Number of Typhoons per
Probability 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙)
month (𝒙)

0 0.15

a. What is the average number of 1 0.35

typhoons entering the country per
month?
2 0.3
b. What is the standard deviation?

3 0.1

4 0.1
Example 4
Consider the random variable Y described as the absolute
value of the difference between the numbers that turn up in
rolling a pair of dice. Using the derived pmf in tabular form,
compute the expected value and variance of Y:
𝒚 0 1 2 3 4 5

1 5 2 1 1 1
𝑷(𝒀)
6 18 9 6 9 18

Solution
1 5 2 1 1 1 35
𝐸 𝑌 =0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 = ≈ 𝟏. 𝟗𝟒
6 18 9 6 9 18 18
Example 4
Consider the random variable Y described as the absolute value of the difference
between the numbers that turn up in rolling a pair of dice. Using the derived pmf in
tabular form, compute the expected value and variance of Y:
𝒚 0 1 2 3 4 5

1 5 2 1 1 1
𝑷(𝒀)
6 18 9 6 9 18

Expected value of 𝒀
1 5 2 1 1 1 35
𝐸 𝑌 =0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 = ≈ 𝟏. 𝟗𝟒
6 18 9 6 9 18 18

Variance of 𝒀
2
𝜎 2 = 𝐸(𝑌 2 ) − 𝐸 𝑌
1 5 2 1 1 1 105 2 35 2
𝐸 𝑌 2 = 02 + 12 + 22 + 32 + 42 + 52 = 𝐸 𝑌 =
6 18 9 6 9 18 18 18

2 Standard Deviation of 𝒀
105 35 665
𝜎2 = − = ≈ 𝟐. 𝟎𝟓 𝜎 = 2.05 ≈ 𝟏. 𝟒𝟑
18 18 324
Chapter 5.3

Binomial and
Poisson
Binomial
Distribution
- a distribution with only
two possible outcomes.
Binomial Distribution
Two possible outcomes: Let 𝑝 = probability of success
𝑞 = probability of failure
𝑛 = number of trials

The probability of getting 𝑥 successes out of 𝑛 trials is given by

𝑃 𝑥 = 𝐶 𝑛, 𝑥 ∙ px ∙ 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 ,
𝑛 𝑛!
where 𝐶 𝑛, 𝑟 = 𝑟
=
𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !
Sample Problem #1
Consider rolling a 6-sided die three times. Determine the
probability that 4 will turn up:

a. Zero times
b. Once
c. Twice
d. Thrice
e. Four
Sample Problem #1
Consider rolling a 6-sided die three times. Determine the
probability that 4 will turn up:

a. Zero times x 𝑛−𝑥

𝑃 𝑥 = 𝐶 𝑛, 𝑥 ∙ p ∙ 𝑞
b. Once
c. Twice
d. Thrice
e. Four

0 3−0
1 5
𝑃 0 = 𝐶 3, 0 ∙ ∙ ≈ 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖
6 6
Checkpoint
A basketball team has to play five games during the elimination
round of a tournament. What is the probability that they will win:

a. 0 games
b. 2 games
c. 4 games
d. All games
Technology Point
The Binomial Probability Calculator

The probability that a patient recovers from a

rare disease is 40%. If 15 people are known to
have contracted this disease, what is the
probability that

a. exactly 12 will survive?

b. at most, 12 will survive?
c. at least, 12 will survive?
Poisson - waiting time
Distribution distribution

Siméon-Denis Poisson
(1781-1840)
 Poisson Distribution
A discrete probability distribution that tells how many times
an event is likely to occur over a specified period.

Example:
If the average number of people who
buy cheeseburgers from a fast-food
chain on a Friday night at a single
restaurant location is 200, a Poisson
distribution can answer questions such
as, "What is the probability that more
than 300 people will buy burgers?"
 Poisson Distribution
Formula:

Where:

e is Euler's number (e = 2.71828...)

x is the number of occurrences
x! is the factorial of x
λ is equal to the expected value (EV) of x when that is also equal to its variance
 Poisson Distribution
Example:
At a call center the average number of calls
received per minute is 7. Calculate the
probability that, in the next minute, there are:

a. Four calls.
b. Eight calls.
c. Zero calls.
Where:

e is Euler's number (e = 2.71828...)

x is the number of occurrences (4, 8, and 0)
λ is equal to the expected value (7)
 Poisson Distribution
Solution: Let X denote the number of calls
received by the call center in a minute.
At a call center the average
number of calls received per a. Four calls

minute is 7. Calculate the

probability that, in the next
minute, there are: b. Eight calls

a. Four calls.
b. Eight calls.
c. Zero calls
c. Zero calls.
What’s your takeaway
from today’s session?
REFERENCES
• De Guzman, D. Quintana, C. (2021). Statistics and Probability (Revised edition). Quezon
City: C&E Publishing, Inc.

• Farber, B. & Larson, R. (2012). Elementary statistics: Picturing the world (5th ed.). New York:
Prentice Education, Inc. Retrieved from:
https://www.gcsnc.com/cms/lib/NC01910393/Centricity/Domain/10320/Intro%20to%20Stati
stics%20Textbook.pdf