Cyclone Intensity Prediction Using

Machine Learning: A Data-Driven Chatbot

Using AI Assistance
Anurag Paul
Department of Utsav Ranjan Dr. Geetha R
Computing Technologies Department of Department of Computing
SRMIST Computing Technologies Technologies SRMIST
Chennai, SRMIST Chennai, India
india Chennai, [email protected].
anuragpaul602@g India in
mail.com utsav130303@gm
ail.com

Abstract—Cyclone intensity prediction is a crucial aspect of accuracy of intensity forecasts. By leveraging

weather forecasting, providing valuable insights for disaster pre-
paredness and mitigation. Traditional methods, while effective,
often struggle to deliver real-time, accurate predictions due to the
complexity of the atmospheric conditions that influence cyclones.
This research proposes a novel approach combining machine
learning techniques with a voice assistant Chatbot to predict
cyclone intensity in a timely and efficient manner. By leveraging
historical cyclone data and environmental variables, machine
learning models can be trained to identify patterns and predict
cy- clone strength. The integration of a voice assistant Chatbot
allows for real-time querying and interaction, enabling users to
access cyclone predictions through natural language. This user-
friendly interface democratizes access to predictive insights,
enhancing preparedness across different sectors. The system
aims to provide accurate, data-driven predictions with the added
advantage of voice-based accessibility, making it a powerful tool
for both mete- orologists and the general public.
Keywords: Cyclone Intensity Prediction, Machine Learning,
Data Pre- processing, Feature Selection, Model Evaluation, Pre-
dictive Analytics

I. INTRODUCTION
Cyclones are among the most destructive natural disasters,
causing extensive damage to infrastructure, ecosystems, and
human life. Accurate prediction of cyclone intensity is crucial
for timely disaster preparedness and response, minimizing
eco- nomic losses, and enhancing public safety. Traditional
methods of cyclone forecasting primarily rely on numerical
weather prediction models, which, while effective, often
require signif- icant computational resources and expert
knowledge. In recent years, the advent of machine learning
(ML) has transformed various fields by enabling data-driven
approaches that enhance predictive capabilities. Machine
learning algorithms can ana- lyze vast amounts of
meteorological data, identify patterns, and improve the
historical cyclone data, satellite imagery, and real-time shear, relative vorticity at 850 hPa, divergence at 200 hPa, and
atmos- pheric conditions, machine learning models can sea surface temperature (SST). These factors were selected due
provide timely and precise predictions of cyclone intensity, to their significant influence on cyclone formation and
facilitating proac- tive measures to mitigate impacts. This intensification. Validation was performed using an independent
research aims to explore the application of machine learning dataset of 15 cyclones from 2000 to 2007. The model
techniques in predicting cyclone intensity. We will examine demonstrated an Average Absolute Error (AAE) of less than 10
various algorithms, such as decision trees, random forests, knots for predictions up to 36 hours and about 14 knots for 60–
and neural networks, and eval- uate their performance in 72-hour forecasts. Notably, it outperformed the earlier empirical
forecasting cyclone strength based on historical data. model by Roy Bhowmik et al. (2007), reinforcing the value of
Furthermore, we will discuss the integra- tion of feature statistically grounded approaches in regional cyclone
selection methods to enhance model accuracy and forecasting.
interpretability. By employing a data-driven approach to C. Deep Learning-based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estima-
cyclone intensity prediction, this study seeks to contribute to tion System
the existing body of knowledge, offering insights that can
Author: Manil Maskey
improve forecasting models and inform disaster management
strategies. The findings may ultimately aid in developing Year: 2020
more robust tools for predicting cyclone behavior, enabling
[3] designed a deep learning-based system for estimating
communities to better prepare for these catastrophic events.
tropical cyclone intensity using satellite infrared (IR) imagery.
The system incorporates a neural network trained to predict
II. LITERATURE SURVEY cyclone wind speeds from satellite image sequences, enabling
A. Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Learning real-time intensity monitoring. It achieved a Root Mean
Squared Error (RMSE) of 13.24 knots, showing good predictive
Author: Ch. NVD
capability for operational purposes. The model benefits from
Navya Year : 2024 being image-driven, eliminating the need for manual labeling or
intensity assignment, thus reducing subjectivity and human
[1] proposed a deep learning-based cyclone intensity error. A notable component of the system is its integrated
estimation framework aimed at improving the timeliness and visualization gateway, which overlays prediction outputs on
accuracy of early warning systems. The model leverages satellite data, providing meteorologists and emergency
satellite imagery in both RGB and grayscale formats, enabling responders with intuitive, real-time insights. This model
it to extract a broader range of spatial features relevant to highlights the applicability of AI-based automation in
cyclone strength. Grayscale images were particularly effective enhancing the responsiveness of cyclone monitoring systems.
in preserving crucial structural patterns—such as the
D. Deep Learning Based Cyclone Intensity Estimation using
formation of the cyclone eye, banding, and cloud symmetry—
INSAT - 3D IR Imager
which are less distorted by color variations and help in
enhancing spatial resolution. Convolutional Neural Networks Author: 1Vivek Sanjay Pawar
(CNNs) were used to extract multi-level hierarchical features Year : 2023
that correlate with cyclone intensity categories. The
[4] proposed a deep learning-based methodology for cyclone
combination of image types and deep learning techniques led
intensity estimation using satellite data captured by the INSAT-
to better generalization across varying cyclone scenarios. By
3D IR imager. The model leverages image processing and deep
improving the speed and reliability of predictions, the
feature extraction to identify cyclone-related anomalies and
framework is positioned as a vital tool in disaster
patterns that are not easily detectable by conventional methods.
preparedness, particularly in cyclone-prone regions like the
This method provides insights into the cyclone’s thermal
Indian subcontinent.
structure and cloud organization, which are crucial for
B. A Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP) model determining storm strength. The use of domain-specific satellite
for the Bay of Bengal data (INSAT-3D) enables more localized and high-resolution
Author: S D Kotal1, S K Roy forecasting, which is particularly beneficial for Indian
meteorological applications. While the approach demonstrated
Bhowmik Year : 2018
strong performance in both detection and classification tasks, it
[2] introduced the Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction also encountered challenges, notably the high computational
(SCIP) model, which uses multiple linear regression cost and time complexity involved in training and inference.
techniques trained on data from 62 tropical cyclones that Future enhancements could focus on optimizing the model for
occurred over the Bay of Bengal between 1981 and 2000. The faster execution without compromising prediction accuracy.
model incorporated a comprehensive set of predictors,
including initial storm intensity, 12-hour intensity change,
cyclone translational velocity, storm latitude, vertical wind
 • The manual transfer of data from an older database
resulted in data loss.
A programming error occurred.
• Because of their opinions about how the data will be used
or perceived, users decide not to fill out a particular field.
• The dataset used for the study comprised weather vari-
ables such as latitude, longitude, humidity, temperature,
visibility, precipitation, storm surge, wave height, air den-
sity, and sea surface temperature (SST).
• Null values and duplicate items were removed from the
dataset. The date and time columns were removed from
the dataset. The column names were modified from “Lat-
Figure 1: System Architecture itude(°N)” to “Latitude(N)” for uniformity.
B. Data Validation:
• Loading the specified dataset along with the necessary
III. ExIstIng SYstEM
library packages. Duplicate and missing values are as-
This study applies machine learning, specifically eXtreme sessed, and variables are identified based on data type and
Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), to derive wave characteristics structure.
from over 2,000 Sentinel-1 SAR images captured during 200 • Samples of data that weren’t used to train your model are
tropical cyclones. These images are synchronized with known as validation datasets.
WAVE- WATCH-III (WW3) hindcast data to estimate • They are accustomed to they can be used to maximize the
significant wave height (SWH), mean wave period (MWP), usage of test and validation datasets for model evaluation
and mean wave- length (MWL). The model, trained on 1,600 and to gauge model competence during model tuning.
images and tested on 400, achieves RMSE values of 0.19 m • The provided dataset must be renamed and columns re-
for SWH, 0.19 s for MWP, and 3.77 m for MWL. Compared moved, among other things, in order to clean and prepare
to previous methods, XGBoost improves SWH estimation, the data for analysis of the uni-, bi-, and multi-variable
reducing RMSE from processes.
1.44 m to 0.59 m. These findings confirm the effectiveness • Data cleansing will require various steps and techniques
of machine learning for wave analysis using SAR imagery. depending on the dataset. The main objective is to identify
and eliminate errors and inconsistencies to ensure the
Disadvantages:
data’s reliability for analytics and decision-making.
• Failed to implement the deployment process.
• Accuracy and performance metrics are inadequate.
• Processing requires increased sophistication. C. Data Transformation:
• The cyclone intensity categories denoted by the ‘Type’
column were encoded using Label Encoder to convert
IV. MEthodoLogY categorical labels into numerical values.

A. Information Gathering and Preparation:

• The ML model’s error rate, which is believed to be as
close to the dataset’s real error rate as is practical, is D. Data Splitting:
determined using machine learning validation
• Stratified sampling was used to separate the dataset into
techniques. However, In real-world scenarios, it is
typical to work with data samples that may not
correctly represent the population of a given dataset.
• This information is used by machine learning
engineers to modify the hyperparameters of the model.

Figure 2: Process for Data Validation

The user failed to fill in a field.

 training (80%) and testing (20%) sets in order to Figure 4: Visualized Data
maintain the class distribution. d) Putting into practice:
The Passive Aggressive Classifier is a type of linear classifier
that works well in online learning environments and on large-
Figure 3: Transformed Data scale learning tasks. Here is a comprehensive explanation:
B. Passive Aggressive Classifier:
V. IMpLEMEntatIon
Large-scale learning problems and online learning environ-
A. ElasticNet: ments are ideal for the Passive Aggressive Classifier, a kind of
The Elastic Net algorithm is a regularization technique for linear classifier. The following is a thorough explanation:
linear regression models that combines the L1 (Lasso) a) Important features:
and L2 (Ridge) penalties. When working with datasets that
exhibit a high level of feature correlation, it is very • As an online learning algorithm, the Passive Aggressive
beneficial.More predictors than observations exist. Here is a Classifier is effective in scenarios involving streaming
comprehensive explanation: data since it continuously updates its model as new data
becomes available.
a) Important features::
• Learning Mechanism: Two essential features of the clas-
• Regularization Technique: sifier give it the name “passive-aggressive”:
By setting some coefficients to zero, L1 Regularization • In the event that the present forecast is accurate, the model
(Lasso), which is used to select variables, promotes sparsity stays unaltered.
in the model.
• Aggressive: In the event that the prediction is off, the
L2 Regularization (Ridge) reduces overfitting and multi- model makes a significant update based on the misclassi-
collinearity by decreasing the coefficients of connected fied instance and works quickly to reduce the mistake.
predic- tors.
• Loss Function: To optimize the margin between classes, it
• Goal Function: The Elastic Net optimizes the usually employs a hinge loss function, such as those found
following goal function: in Support Vector Machines (SVMs).
b) Benefits: • Regularisation: The classifier balances the trade-off be-
• Feature Selection: Elastic Net can reduce the amount tween fitting the training data and preserving model
of features and make the model easier to understand by generality by using regularisation to prevent overfitting.
implementing the L1 penalty. • Its effectiveness with high-dimensional sparse data makes
• How to Handle Multicollinearity: The L2 penalty helps it a popular choice for text classification tasks, including
stabilize the coefficients when there is a high degree of subject categorization, sentiment analysis, and spam de-
correlation between the predictors. tection.

c) Utilization:: C. Random Forest classifier:

Elastic Net is commonly used when there are a lot of

features, some of which can be redundant or irrelevant. It is
very helpful in fields like finance, genetics, and any other
field that deals with high-dimensional data.
Figure 5: Passive Aggressive classifier

Figure 6: Random forest Classifier

Random Forest is a reliable, versatile machine learning

algo- rithm widely used in various applications due to its
accuracy, robustness, and interpretability.
• Ensemble of Decision Trees:- Instead of relying on a
single decision tree, Random Forest combines multiple
trees to improve prediction accuracy and stability.
• Bootstrap Aggregation (Bagging):- Creates multiple
 training subsets by randomly selecting data with the most influential factors.
replace- ment, ensuring model diversity.
b) Advantages:
• Random Feature Selection:- Each tree is trained using
• Works well with large datasets.
a random subset of features, reducing correlation
• Handles missing values effectively.
between trees and improving generalization.
• Less prone to overfitting than a single decision tree.
a) Prediction Process: D. Decision Tree:
• For Classification:- Uses majority voting to determine A tree-structured model used for classification and regression
the final class. tasks. Each node represents a decision, branches represent
• For Regression:- Averages the predictions of all trees pos- sible outcomes, and leaf nodes represent the final
to get a final output. prediction.
• Reduces Overfitting:- Individual tree errors cancel out,
a) Structure & Working:
making the model more resistant to noise and
improving overall performance. • Root Node:- The starting point of the tree, representing
• Feature Importance Evaluation:- Measures how much the entire dataset.
each feature contributes to predictions, helping identify
 Figure 7: DECISION TREE Figure 8: MLP Clasifier
• Splitting:- The dataset is divided based on the most rel- • Tanh:- Maps values between −1 and 1, often used in
evant feature, determined by criteria like Gini Impurity hidden layers.
(for classification) or Mean Squared Error (MSE) (for • ReLU (Rectified Linear Unit):- Most widely used, im-
regression). proves efficiency by avoiding vanishing gradients.
• Decision Nodes:- Intermediate nodes that represent fur- • Weight Parameters:- Connections between neurons
ther splitting based on feature values. carry adjustable weights, which are learned during
• Branches:- Represent different possible outcomes of a training.
decision. • Bias Parameters:- Added to the weighted sum before ap-
• Leaf Nodes:- The final nodes that contain the predicted plying activation, helping the network adjust shifts in
class (classification) or value (regression). data.
• Recursive Splitting:- The process continues until a stop- • Output Layer:- Generates final predictions:
ping condition is met, such as reaching maximum depth • Binary Classification:- One neuron with sigmoid activa-
or pure class separation. tion.
• Decision Process:- A new instance is classified by • Training Process
follow- ing the tree from root to a leaf based on its
feature values. d) Optimization Algorithm:
• Backpropagation:- Adjusts weights and biases by mini-
b) Advantages: mizing prediction error.
• Easy to Understand & Interpret:- Simple visualization • Uses gradient descent or its variations (Adam, RMSprop,
makes them useful for decision-making. etc.).
• Handles Both Numerical & Categorical Data:- Suitable e) Loss Function:
for a wide range of datasets. • Binary Classification:- Cross-entropy loss.
• Minimal Data Preparation:- Requires little pre-processing • Multiclass Classification:- Categorical cross-entropy loss.
compared to other models. • Epochs & Iterations:- Training involves multiple itera-
E. Chatbot Algorithm: tions over the dataset to improve accuracy.
MLP Clasifier: f) Advantages:
A type of artificial neural network used for classification • Can model complex patterns in data.
tasks. • Works well with image recognition, NLP, and classifica-
tion problems.
a) Feedforward Architecture: • Adaptable architecture—hidden layers and hyper-parame-
Data flows in one direction from input to output, without ters can be tuned for better performance.
cycles or loops.
b) Components & Working: VI. ModEL CoMparIson and VIsUaLIzatIon
• Input Layer:- Receives feature vectors; the number of -The three models were compared in terms of accuracy rat-
neurons corresponds to the number of input features. ings and other measures. For a visual comparison of the
• Hidden Layers:- Comprises one or more layers with model’s performance, actual and predicted values were shown.
inter- connected neurons. • Model Persistence: For later use, the top-performing
• The number of layers and neurons varies based on the model (Random Forest Classifier) was stored using joblib.
problem.
• Activation Functions:- Introduces non-linearity to model • To create a successful cyclone intensity prediction sys-
complex relationships. tem through a data-driven approach, this methodology
integrates evaluation approaches, machine learning mod-
c) Common functions: eling, and data preprocessing.
• Sigmoid:- Used in binary classification.
VII. ConfusIon MatrIx: OvErvIEw And IMpor-
TancE
 Figure 9: Structure of Confusion Matrix

In predictive modeling, a confusion matrix is a useful

tool, especially for binary classification problems like cyclone
strength prediction. True Positives, True Negatives, False
Posi- tives, and False Negatives are the four categories that
allow researchers to compare expected and actual results in
order to illustrate and measure a model’s accuracy.
In high-stakes domains such as natural catastrophe forecast- Figure 10: Actual Confusion Matrix
ing, where precise categorization can greatly influence emer- • FN (False Negative) = 12, representing high-intensity
gency preparedness and response, this matrix is an extremely cyclones misclassified as low-intensity.
helpful methods. When a model misclassifies a high-intensity • TN (True Negative) = 130, representing correct low-
cyclone as low-intensity (False Negative), for instance, it may intensity cyclone predictions.
result in inadequate disaster response, putting people and
C. Analyzing the Data
prop- erty at risk.
This confusion matrix’s lower FN count (12) than FP count
A. Structure of Confusion Matrix
(8) indicates that the model does better at forecasting low-
The confusion matrix is set up as a 2x2 table, with actual intensity cyclones (TN) than high-intensity ones. But 12 high-
results on one axis and predicted results on the other. Simple intensity cyclones were overlooked, which could have serious
comparison is made possible by this arrangement, as seen practical repercussions and necessitate a focus on criteria that
below: give priority to recollection.
Where: Key Metrics Calculated from the Confusion Matrix
• True Positive (TP): Accurately identifies high-intensity Important performance indicators including Accuracy, Pre-
cyclones as such. cision, Recall, and F1 Score are extracted from the confusion
• False Positive (FP): This could result in false alarms matrix. Every statistic has its own function and offers informa-
since it mispredicts low-intensity cyclones as high- tion about particular facets of model performance.
intensity ones. Accuracy: Total Accurate Forecasts
• False Negative (FN): Forecasts high-intensity cyclones as Formula: (TP + TN)/(TP + TN+FP + FN)
low-intensity, which is dangerous.
Using the formula, (60+130)/(60+130+8+12) =
• True Negative (TN): Accurately forecasts low-intensity 0.905(60+130)/(8+12) + (60+130) = 0.905,
clones as such.
or 90.5%.
B. Sample Confusion Matrix with Data
To provide context, let’s consider an example matrix with In terms of interpretation, accuracy represents the
hypothetical data from a cyclone prediction model: percentage of accurate predictions, meaning that 90.5% of the
model’s pre- dictions were right. Although useful, accuracy by
In this scenario: itself might not accurately capture the model’s usefulness if
• TP (True Positive) = 60, representing correct high-inten- the data are unbalanced or if errors (FP, FN) carry varying
sity cyclone predictions. risks.
• FP (False Positive) = 8, representing low-intensity cy- Accuracy: Formula for Positive Prediction
clones misclassified as high-intensity.
Quality: (TP+FP)/(TP)
 The calculation is 60/(60+8) = 0.882,
or 88.2%.
Interpretation:
When predicting high-intensity cyclones, precision
measures how well the model detects them. In this case, the
model’s 88.2% precision means that the majority of high-
intensity cy- clone predictions are accurate, reducing false
warnings. When resource-intensive activities, like needless
evacuations, are caused by false positives, high precision is
advantageous.
Remembering (Sensitivity):
Capacity to Recognize Every Genuine Positive
Formula: (TP+FN)/(TP)
Utilizing the formula, Figure 11: Data Anaylization
60/(60+12) = 0.83360/(60+12) = 0.833,
or 83.3%
Interpretation: Sensitivity, also known as recall, shows how
well the model can represent all real high-intensity cyclones.
The algorithm accurately detects the majority of high-intensity
cyclones with an 83.3% recall rate, however some are missed
(FN). When a high-intensity cyclone is missed, there may not
be enough warnings or preparations, therefore high recall is
essential.
1) F1 Score: Recall and Precision Balance Formula:
2 × Precision × Recall Precision + Recall 2 × Precision ×
Recall
• Calculation:
Figure 12: Metric Interpretations
optimal balance between recall and precision, which could be
perfect in situations when minimizing both kinds of errors is In this comparison, the Support Vector Machine (SVM)
essential. model demonstrates the highest F1 Score, suggesting it
provides the best balance of precision and recall, which may
0.8572×0.882+0.8330.882×0.833D
be ideal in scenarios where both types of errors are crucial to
= 2×0.882×0.8330.882+0.833.
minimize.
0.857 or 85.7% D. Summary Table of Metric Interpretations
Interpretation: The F1 Score provides a single statistic that When testing several models, a comparison table can give a
handles both false positives and false negatives by striking a clear picture of how well each model performs on various cri-
bal- ance between precision and recall. A well-rounded teria, allowing for a well-informed decision based on research
performance in this case is indicated by an F1 score of 85.7%. goals.
In situations like cyclone strength prediction, when both false
With the greatest F1 Score in this comparison, the Support
positives and negatives can be expensive, F1 is particularly
Vector Machine (SVM) model indicates that it offers the
useful.
highest Accuracy.
• Model Comparison Table
If multiple models are tested, a comparison table can provide VIII. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
a clear view of each model’s performance on these metrics,
A. Discussion of Results
facilitating an informed choice based on research priorities.
 • Limited Dataset Scope: The model’s accuracy can be
fur- ther enhanced by incorporating higher-resolution
satellite imagery and IoT sensor data.
• Computational Complexity: Deep learning models like
LSTMs require high computational power, which may
impact real-time processing.

Figure 13: Chatbot Performance • Expansion to Other Regions: Future research will
involve adapting the model for global cyclone
• Best Performing Mode - The LSTM (Long Short-Term prediction, ensur- ing applicability beyond the studied
Memory) model outperformed all other models with an dataset.
R² score of 0.94, indicating a strong correlation between
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