AP Statistics Name _______________________________

Unit 9.3 Conditional Probability Notes – Tree Diagrams

Warm Up

a. What is the probability that a voter is registered for Party X and female?

b. Given that a randomly selected registered voter is a male, what is the probability that he is registered for
Party Y?

c. What is the probability that a voter is registered for Party W or Male?

d. Among the registered voters of Franklin Township, are the events “is a male” and “is registered for
Party Y” independent? Justify your answer based on probabilities calculated from the table above.
Tree Diagrams
● A tree diagram helps us think through conditional probabilities by showing sequences of events as paths
that look like branches of a tree.
Example 1: Bags at an airport
An airport screens bags for forbidden items, and an alarm is supposed to be triggered when a forbidden item
is detected.
● Suppose that 5% of bags contain forbidden items.
● If a bag contains a forbidden item, there is a 98% chance that it triggers the alarm.
● If a bag doesn't contain a forbidden item, there is an 8% chance that it triggers the alarm.
Given a randomly chosen bag triggers the alarm, what is the probability that it contains a forbidden
item?

Starting a tree diagram

The chance that the alarm is triggered
depends on whether or not the bag contains a
forbidden item, so we should first distinguish
between bags that contain a forbidden item
and those that don't.
"Suppose that 5% of bags contain forbidden
items."

Filling in the tree diagram

"If a bag contains a forbidden item, there is
a 98% chance that it triggers the alarm."
"If a bag doesn't contain a forbidden item,
there is an 8% chance that it triggers the
alarm."
We can use these facts to fill in the next
branches in the tree diagram like this:

Completing the tree diagram

We multiply the probabilities along the
branches to complete the tree diagram.
Here's the completed diagram:

Solving the original problem

"Given a randomly chosen bag triggers the

alarm, what is the probability that it contains
a forbidden item?"
Use the probabilities from the tree diagram
and the conditional probability formula:
Example 2:
A survey of ORHS students found that 36% said that they would be interested in going to Saturn. Of those who wanted to
go to Saturn, 60% were not seniors. Of those who did not want to go to Saturn, 30% were seniors. What is the
probability that a randomly selected student wanted to go to Saturn, given he was a senior?

Example 3:
2.4 percent of a population is infected with a certain disease. There is a test for the disease; however, the test is not
completely accurate. 92% of those who have the disease will test positive. However, 3.8 percent of those who do not have
the disease will also test positive. What is the probability that any given person will test positive?
9.3 Practice
1) Assume that 70% of teenagers who go to take the written driver’s license test have studied for the test. Of those who
study for the test, 95% pass; of those who do not study for the test, 60% pass. What is the probability that a teenager
did not study for the test given they passed the written driver’s license test?

2) Ken has a flight to catch on Monday morning. His father will give him a ride to the airport. If it rains, the traffic will
be bad and the probability that he will miss his flight is 0.04. If it doesn't rain, the probability that he will miss his
flight is 0.02. The probability that it will rain on Monday is 0.20. What is the probability that Ken misses his flight?

3) Assume that 40% of the AP Stat students get an A on the unit exam. If students don’t get an A on the unit exam they
take a retest exam. 75% of students who take the retest exam get an A. What is the probability the student got an A on
the test?

4) In one town in the Pacific Northwest, only 23 percent of days are sunny. A company's records indicate that on sunny
days 2.1 percent of employees will call in sick. When it is not sunny, 1.4 percent of employees will call in sick. What
percent of employees call in sick on a randomly selected day?
5) Surveys indicate that 5% of the students who took the SATs had enrolled in an SAT prep course. 30% of the SAT
prep students were admitted to their first-choice college, as were 20% of the other students. You overhear a classmate
say he got into the college he wanted. What is the probability he didn't take an SAT prep course given he got into the
college he wanted?

6) 3.3 percent of a population is infected with a certain disease. There is a test for the disease; however, the test is not
completely accurate. 94 percent of those who have the disease will test positive. However, 4.4 percent of those who
do not have the disease will also test positive. What is the probability that any given person will test positive? Round
your answer to three decimal places if necessary.

7) A teacher designs a test so that 88% of students will pass. Students who don’t pass the test will take a retest. 12% of
students who take the retest will pass. What is the probability that a randomly selected student will pass?

8) Real estate ads suggest that 64% of homes for sale have garages, 21% have swimming pools, and 17% have both
features. What is the probability that a home has a swimming pool given it has a garage?
9) Suppose the probability that a US resident has traveled to Canada is 0.18, to Mexico is 0.09 and to both countries is
0.04. What is the probability that an American had traveled to Mexico given they have traveled to Canada?

10) In its monthly report, the local animal shelter states that it currently has 24 dogs and 18 cats available for adoption.
Eight of the dogs and 6 of the cats are male. If an animal is selected at random, what is the probability the pet is
female, given that it is a dog.

11) The probabilities that an adult American man has high blood pressure and/or high cholesterol are shown in the table.
BLOOD PRESSURE
HIGH Low
CHOLESTEROL High .11 .21
Low .16 .52

a) What’s the probability that a man has high blood pressure and high cholesterol?

b) What’s the probability that he has high blood pressure?

c) What’s the probability that a man has high cholesterol given that he has high blood pressure?

d) What’s the probability that a man has high blood pressure given that he has high Cholesterol?
12) The table shows the political affiliation of American voters and their positions on the death penalty.
DEATH PENALTY
FAVOR OPPOSE
PARTY REPULICAN 26 4
DEMOCRAT 12 24
OTHER 24 10

a) What’s the probability that a randomly chosen voter favors the death penalty?

b) What’s the probability that a Republican favors the death penalty?

c) What’s the probability that a voter who favors the death penalty is a Democrat?

d) A candidate thinks she has a good chance of gaining the votes of anyone who is a Republican or in
favor of the death penalty. What portion of the voters is that?

e) What is the probability of being in favor of the death penalty or being a democrat?

f) Are being a Republican and favoring the death penalty independent events?

13) A commuter must pass through five traffic lights on her way to work and will have to stop at each one that is red. She
estimates the probability model for the number of red lights she hits, as shown below.

X=#of red lights 0 1 2 3 4 5

P(x) 0.05 0.25 0.35 0.15 0.15 0.05

A. What is the probability of having to stop at 4 or more traffic lights?

B. What is the probability that she will have to stop at least once at a traffic light?

C. What is the probability that she stops at 3 red lights, given she had to stop at least once?