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Exercises Probability

The document contains practice exercises on probability methods, including basic probability calculations, joint probability tables, and normal distribution problems. It covers various scenarios such as customer surveys, factory production quality, marketing campaign responses, and statistical analysis of normal distributions. Each section includes specific questions requiring calculations and interpretations of probabilities.

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mellanynhantumbo7
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11 views4 pages

Exercises Probability

The document contains practice exercises on probability methods, including basic probability calculations, joint probability tables, and normal distribution problems. It covers various scenarios such as customer surveys, factory production quality, marketing campaign responses, and statistical analysis of normal distributions. Each section includes specific questions requiring calculations and interpretations of probabilities.

Uploaded by

mellanynhantumbo7
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability Methods

Practice Exercises

QMB Madrid (ÁSP)


November 2024

Basic probability
1. In a survey of 200 customers, the following data was collected:
• 120 purchased product A,
• 80 purchased product B,
• 50 purchased both products A and B.
Calculate:
(a) P (A ∩ B),
(b) P (A ∪ B),
2. A joint probability table is given for events A and B:

B = 1 B = 0 Marginal (A)
A=1 0.2 0.3 ?
A=0 0.1 0.4 ?
Marginal (B) ? ? 1

(a) Fill in the marginal probabilities.


(b) Verify that the sum of all probabilities is 1.
(c) What is P (A = 1)?
3. A factory produces 70% high-quality items and 30% low-quality items. If 20% of high-quality
items and 50% of low-quality items are defective:
(a) Construct a probability table showing all possible combinations (High/Low Quality ×
Defective/Non-Defective).
(b) Calculate P (Defective).
4. A bag contains 3 red balls and 7 blue balls. Two balls are drawn without replacement:
(a) What is the probability that the first ball is red?
(b) What is the probability the second ball is red, given the first ball was red?
5. A company runs a marketing campaign targeting two demographics:

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• 60% are teenagers, and 40% are adults.
• 30% of teenagers and 70% of adults respond positively.

(a) What is the probability a randomly selected respondent is a teenager?


(b) Given a positive response, what is the probability the respondent is a teenager?

6. For two events A and B, P (A) = 0.5, P (B) = 0.4, and P (A ∩ B) = 0.2:
(a) Are A and B independent? Justify your answer.
(b) Calculate P (A | B).

7. A deck of cards is shuffled, and one card is drawn:


(a) Define A: The card is a spade, and B: The card is an ace.
(b) Are A and B independent?
8. In a town, the probability of rain on a given day is 0.3, and the probability of carrying an
umbrella is 0.6. If the probability of carrying an umbrella and it rains is 0.25:
(a) Calculate P (Rain | Umbrella).
(b) Are the events ”Rain” and ”Carrying an Umbrella” independent?
9. A medical test is 90% accurate, meaning it detects the disease 90% of the time if the person
is sick and gives a false positive 10% of the time if the person is healthy. In a population, 5%
of people are sick:
(a) Construct a probability tree for this scenario.
(b) Calculate the probability that a person is sick, given a positive test result (use Bayes’
Theorem).

10. An airline collects the following data for flight delays:

Flight Type On Time Delayed Marginal


Domestic 0.6 0.1 ?
International 0.2 0.1 ?
Marginal ? ? 1

(a) Fill in the marginal probabilities.


(b) Are the events ”Domestic” and ”Delayed” independent?
11. A factory employs workers in two shifts:
• Morning shift: 70 workers (20% female),
• Evening shift: 30 workers (50% female).

A worker is selected at random:


(a) What is the probability the worker is female?
(b) If the worker is female, what is the probability they work the evening shift?

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Normal distribution
1. A factory produces lightbulbs with a lifespan that follows N (1, 000, 100).
(a) Find the proportion of lightbulbs that last more than 1,100 hours.
(b) What is the probability that a bulb lasts between 900 and 1,050 hours?
2. Assume Z ∼ N (0, 1). Using the standard normal table:
(a) Find P (Z < −1.25).
(b) Find P (−0.67 < Z < 0.89).
(c) What value of Z corresponds to a cumulative probability of 0.975?
3. The length of time it takes for a customer to be served at a restaurant follows a normal
distribution with a mean of 15 minutes and a standard deviation of 5 minutes.
(a) What is the maximum serving time for the fastest 10% of customers?
(b) What serving time separates the slowest 5% from the rest of the customers?
4. A survey records the daily water consumption of households, which is normally distributed
with a mean of 300 liters and a standard deviation of 50 liters.
(a) A household consumes 350 liters of water in a day. What is the corresponding z-score?
(b) What proportion of households consume less water than this household?
5. A standardized test has a mean score of 500 and a standard deviation of 100.
(a) Calculate the z-score for a student who scored 650.
(b) If the top 5% of students receive a distinction, what is the minimum score required for
distinction?
6. In a certain population, the heights of adults are normally distributed with a mean of 170 cm
and a standard deviation of 10 cm.
(a) What is the probability that an adult is shorter than 160 cm?
(b) What is the probability that an adult is taller than 180 cm?
(c) Verify that the sum of probabilities in (a) and (b) equals 1 − P (160 ≤ X ≤ 180).
7. A machine fills cereal boxes with a mean of 500 grams and a standard deviation of 10 grams.
(a) What is the probability that a box contains more than 520 grams of cereal?
(b) What is the probability that a box contains less than 490 grams of cereal?
(c) What is the probability that a box contains between 495 and 505 grams of cereal?
8. An insurance company analyzes claims, which follow N (10, 000, 2, 000).
(a) What percentage of claims are less than 9,000€?
(b) What percentage of claims are more than 12,000€?
(c) If the company adjusts claims exceeding the 95th percentile, at what value should this
adjustment begin?

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9. The scores of a basketball team in a season follow a normal distribution with a mean of 85
points per game and a standard deviation of 10 points.
(a) What is the probability the team scores between 75 and 95 points in a game?
(b) Determine the score below which only 20% of games fall.
(c) If a game is randomly selected, what is the probability the team scores more than 100
points?
10. Using the standard normal table:
(a) Verify P (Z > 1.5) + P (Z < −1.5) = 1 − P (−1.5 ≤ Z ≤ 1.5).
(b) Find P (Z > 2.0) using the complement of P (Z < 2.0).
11. Assume Z ∼ N (0, 1). If P (Z > k) = 0.3, find the value of k using the standard normal table.

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