LESSON 1

Semi – finals

Lesson objectives:
at the end of the lesson, the students are able to: What to expect in this lesson:
a. Define probability in terms of empirical and classical probabilities a. The Addition and Multiplication Rules of probability
b. show how to apply the General Addition Rule, and the b. definition of probability
Multiplication Rule c. Experiments and events
c. Make use of a tree diagram for conditional probabilities d. computing the probability of an event
d. Find the conditional probability of an event

Lesson Requirement:
a. knowledge on sets
b. permutations
c. combinations

Probability and Statistics

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JMNacar‖[email protected]
 Before we begin with our discussion, here is a vocabulary activity to start our lesson with. Are you familiar with arranging the jumbled letters? Given
only the synonyms, rearrange the JUMBLED letter and identify the correct word.

Accidentally,
anchec Anticipate,
incidental, ptdicer presume,
at random
foresee

Definiteness, Allowance,
ateitrycn surety, tgerepnaec ratio,
sureness proportion

Irregular,
sdod seasonal,
contingent

Trial,
tpmereienx observation,
examination
Circumstance,
btospiysili instance,
opportunity
Probability and Statistics
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The words that you just guessed are essential in our topic which is PROBABILITY. Let us now start our proper discussion.. JMNacar‖[email protected]
 INTRODUCTION

Now that you have learned to describe a data set, how can you use sample data to draw conclusions about the sampled populations? The technique involves a statistical tool
called PROBABILITY. To use this tool correctly, you must first understand how it works. This part of the lesson will present the basic concepts with simple examples.
The use of probability to measure uncertainty and variability dates back hundreds of years. Probability has found application in areas as diverse as medicine, gambling,
weather forecasting, and the law. The theory of probability has been developed steadily since the seventeenth century and has been widely applied in diverse fields of study. Today, probability
theory is an important tool in most areas of engineering, science, and management. Many research workers are actively engaged in the discovery and establishment of new applications of
probability in fields such as medicine, meteorology, photography from satellites, marketing, earthquake prediction, human behavior, the design of computer systems, finance, genetics, and
law. In many legal proceedings involving antitrust violations or employment discrimination, both sides will present probability and statistical calculations to help support their cases.
In addition to the many formal applications of probability theory, the concept of probability enters our everyday life and conversation. We often hear and use such expressions
as “It probably will rain tomorrow afternoon,” “It is very likely that the plane will arrive late,” or “The chances are good that he will be able to join us for dinner this evening.” Each of these
expressions is based on the concept of the probability, or the likelihood, that some specific event will occur.

In order to discuss the theory of probability, it is essential to be familiar with some ideas and concepts of mathematical theory of SET.

Concept of Set
A SET is a collection of well-defined objects which is denoted by capital letters such as A, B, C, etc.

In describing which objects are contained in set A, two common methods are available. These methods are:

1. Listing all objects of A. For example, A = {1, 2, 3, 4} describes the set consisting of the positive integers 1, 2, 3 and 4.

2. Describing a set in words, for example, set A consists of all real numbers between 0 and 1, inclusive. It can be written as A = {x : 0 ≤ x ≤ 1}, that is, A is the set of all x’ s
where x is a real number between 0 and 1.

Each object belonging to set A is called a member or an element of set A, i.e., ai ∈ A. A set consisting all possible elements under consideration is called a UNIVERSAL SET
(denoted by ∪). On the other hand, a set containing no element is called an EMPTY SET (denoted by ∅ or {}). Probability and Statistics
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 For illustration of the set operations, we will make use of Venn diagrams of the sample space C. Consider the collection of Venn diagrams.

a b c d

A A⊂ B A∪ B A∩ B

The illustrations above are series of Venn diagrams of a sample space C. The sample space C is represented by the interior of the rectangle in each plot. Panel (a) depicts the
event A; Panel (b) depicts A ⊂ B; Panel (c) depicts A ∪ B; and Panel (d) depicts A ∩ B.

*(I will no longer discuss this further for I assumed that this has been already discussed in your grade 10 level)

EVENTS AND THE SAMPLE SPACE

Data are obtained by observing either uncontrolled events in nature or by observing events in controlled situations. We use the term EXPERIMENT to describe either method
of data collection.
Definition: An EXPERIMENT is the process by which an observation (or measurement) is obtained.

The observation or measurement generated by an experiment may or may not produce a numerical value. Here are some examples of experiments:
• Recording a test grade (numerical)
• Measuring daily rainfall (numerical/non - numerical)
• Interviewing a householder to obtain his or her opinion on a greenbelt zoning ordinance (non – numerical)
• Testing a printed circuit board to determine whether it is a defective product or an acceptable product (non – numerical) Probability and Statistics
Bp. Pueblos Senior High School
• Tossing a coin and observing the face that appears (non – numerical) JMNacar‖[email protected]
 When an experiment is performed, what we observe is an outcome called a SIMPLE EVENT, often denoted by the capital E with a subscript.

Definition A SIMPLE EVENT is the outcome that is observed on a single repetition of the experiment.

EXAMPLE

Experiment: Roll a die and observe the number that appears on the upper face. List the simple events in the experiment.
Solution When the die is tossed once, there are six possible outcomes. These are the simple events, listed below.
Event E1: Observe a 1 Event E4: Observe a 4
Event E2: Observe a 2 Event E5: Observe a 5
Event E3: Observe a 3 Event E6: Observe a 6

We can now define an EVENT as a collection of simple events, often denoted by a capital letter.

Definition An EVENT is a collection of simple events.

Describing the set using the two method we have, we let S be the name of the sample space:
Using the listing method: S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
using the descriptive method: as S = {x : x are the numbers appeared on the upper face of dice

EXAMPLE

Consider the example below. We can define the events A and B for the die-rolling experiment:
A: Observe an odd number
B: Observe a number less than 4
Since event A occurs if the upper face is 1, 3, or 5, it is a collection of three simple events and we write A = {E1, E3, E5}. Similarly, the event B occurs if the upper face is 1, 2,
or 3 and is defined as a collection or set of these three simple events: B = {E1, E2, E3}.
Sometimes when one event occurs, it means that another event cannot, and with this condition, we call mutually exclusive events.
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Definition Two events are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE if, when one event occurs, the other cannot, and vice versa. JMNacar‖[email protected]
 In the die-rolling experiment, events A and B are not mutually exclusive, because they have two outcomes in common—if the number on the upper face of the die is a 1 or a 3.
Both events A and B will occur if either E1 or E3 is observed when the experiment is performed. In contrast, the six simple events E1, E2, . . . , E6 form a set of all mutually exclusive outcomes
of the experiment. When the experiment is performed once, one and only one of these simple events can occur.

Definition The set of all simple events is called the SAMPLE SPACE, S.

Sometimes it helps to visualize an experiment using a picture called a Venn diagram. The white box represents the sample space, which contains all of the simple events,
represented by labeled points. Since an event is a collection of one or more simple events, the appropriate points are circled and labeled with the event letter. For the die-rolling experiment,
the sample space is S = {E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6} or, more simply, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. The events A = {1, 3, 5}, the observation resulting to only odd numbers and B = {1, 2, 3}, the
observations that are below 4, are both circled in the Venn diagram.

Venn diagram for die rolling S

B
A

We have here, more example

Experiment:
Record a person’s blood type. The four mutually exclusive possible
outcomes are these simple events: Experiment:
Solution: Toss a single coin and observe the result. These are the simple events:
E1: Blood type A Solution:
E2: Blood type B E1: Observe a head (H)
E3: Blood type AB E2: Observe a tail (T)
E4: Blood type O The sample space is:
The sample space is: Listing method: S = {H, T} or S = {E1, E2},
Listing method: S = {A, B, AB, O} or S = {E1, E2, E3, E4}, Descriptive Method: S = { x : x is either H or T}
Descriptive Method: S = {x : x are the person’s blood type either The events are mutually exclusive for there are no to elements or resulting elements that are
A, B, AB or O} the same. Probability and Statistics
The events are mutually exclusive for there are no to elements or resulting Bp. Pueblos Senior High School
elements that are the same at one time. JMNacar‖[email protected]
 TREE DIAGRAM

Some experiments can be generated in stages, and the sample space can be displayed in a tree diagram. Each successive level of branching on the tree corresponds to a step
required to generate the final outcome.

WHAT IS A TREE DIAGRAM?

A graphic organizer that makes use of branching connecting lines to represent a certain relationship between events.

EXAMPLE

Let us have the experiment where we rolled a die as an example.

For each coin there are two different sides, the H (head) and the T (tail), using the tree diagram, we have:

FIRST SECOND OUTCOME

COIN COIN

HEAD HH
HEAD HEAD
Piso TAIL HT
Piso
Ni
Ni HEAD TH
TAIL TAIL
TAIL TT

The two outcomes now are the result when you toss a coin ONCE.
Therefore, if we will toss the coin twice
What will be the result/ outcome if we toss the coin twice in
successively, we can get an outcome of 4 in total Probability and Statistics
succession?
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EXAMPLE
Quick Trivia
A medical technician records a person’s blood type and Rh factor. List the simple events in the experiment.
Rhesus (Rh) factor is an inherited protein found on the
surface of red blood cells. If your blood has the
S = {A, A, B, B, AB, AB, O, O} protein, you're Rh positive. If your blood lacks the
protein, you're Rh negative. Rh positive is the most
common blood type.
www.mayoclinic.org

Therefore, there are 8 possible combinations or outcomes.

EXAMPLE

You are driving where there you encounter 2 intersections. In each intersection, there are 3 traffic lights installed displaying the 3 color (yellow, green and blue) light. Can you think
of how many different sequence of lights you would encounter?

Solution: GREEN RED YELLOW

Therefore, there are 9 possible combinations

or outcomes.
G R Y G R Y G R Y

Probability and Statistics

GG GR GY RG RR RY YG YR YY Bp. Pueblos Senior High School
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 Even though a tree diagram could be a helpful way to organize the number of possible outcomes in an experiment, it might be inconvenient especially when dealing with a
larger number of experiments. Say, would you want to use the tree diagram where there are 2,000 possible outcomes?

Fundamental counting principle

Fundamental Counting Principle (FCP) may be generalized from tree diagrams. Study the following situated illustrations below.

EXAMPLE

Tossing Three coins. In tossing 3 coins, we know that there are 2 possible outcomes. For the 1st toss we have two result, 2nd toss we get another 2 result each the result of the 1st toss, and
another 2 for the 3rd toss. Thus, there are 8. as you can see in the illustration below.

H T

Showing result using FCP,

H T H T at first toss =2
2nd toss =2
H T H T H T H T
3rd toss =2

HHH HHT HTH THH THH TTH TTT

FCP: 2 x 2 x 2 = 8
HTT

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EXAMPLE

You are driving where there you encounter 2 intersections. In each intersection, there are 3 traffic lights installed displaying the 3 color (yellow, green and blue) light. Can you think of how
many different sequence of lights you would encounter?

GREEN RED YELLOW

Showing result using FCP,

G R Y 1st intersection: 3
G R Y G R Y
2nd intersection: 3
FCP: 3 x 3 = 9
GG GR GY RG RR RY YG YR YY

Hey class! This part of the lesson is just the

remembering part wherein we recalled what
you have learned in G8 – G10. I will no longer
discuss about permutations and combinations
since it is not in the scope of this lesson.

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 THE ROLE OF PROBABILITY IN STATISTICS

Probability theory plays a central role in statistics. After all, statistical analysis is applied to a collection of data in order to discover something about the underlying events.
Probability and statistics are related in an important way. Probability is used as a tool; it allows you to evaluate the reliability of your conclusions about the population when you have only
sample information. Consider the situation below:

• When you toss a single coin, you will see either a head (H) or a tail (T). If you toss the coin repeatedly, you will generate an infinitely large number of Hs and Ts—the entire
population. What does this population look like? If the coin is fair, then the population should contain 50% Hs and 50% Ts. Now toss the coin one more time. What is the chance
of getting a head? Most people would say that the “probability” or chance is 1/2.

The classical interpretation of probability is based on the concept of equally likely outcomes. For example, when a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes: a head or a
tail. If it may be assumed that these outcomes are equally likely to occur, then they must have the same probability. Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, both the probability of a head
and the probability of a tail must be 1/2. More generally, if the outcome of some process must be one of n different outcomes, and if these n outcomes are equally likely to occur, then
the probability of each outcome is 1/n.

Take note

The statement that two possible outcomes are equally likely to occur is the same as the statement that two outcomes have the same probability

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 What is Probability?

PROBABILITY is a numerical description of chance of occurrence of a given phenomena under certain condition.

People can quantify uncertainty through the notion of PROBABILITY (or Chance). If you are asked for the probability that you would pass the next quiz, you may give a
number between 0% and 100 percent. Typically, the chances of a future outcome may be based on some past experience of data collected. Say for example, very studious learners had passed
their quizzes 100 percent of the time, while average students had passed their quizzes 85 percent of the time. When considering probabilities of events, consider a particular context
wherein possible outcomes are well defined and can be specified, at least in principle, beforehand. This context is called RANDOM PROCESS wherein we do not know which of the
possible outcomes will occur, but we do know what is on the list of possible outcomes. It can be also helpful to view the probability of an event as its “long-run” empirical frequency or the
fraction of times the event may have occurred under repeated “trials” of the random process. These events may be connected to one another. However, the individual choices involved are
assumed to be random. Alternatively, we may sample a population at random and make inferences about the population as a whole from the sample by using statistical analysis. Therefore, a
solid understanding of probability theory - the study of random events - is necessary to understand how the statistical analysis works and also to correctly interpret the results.

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 COMPUTING PROBABILITIES

EVENT RELATIONS AND PROBABILITY RULES

Sometimes the event of interest can be formed as a combination of several other events. Let A and B be two events defined on the sample space S. Here are three important
relationships between events.

Take a look at the illustration of the Venn diagrams below, any simple event in the shaded area is a possible outcome resulting in the appropriate event. One way to find the
probabilities of the union, the intersection, or the complement is to sum the probabilities of all the associated simple events.

S S S

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 PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
- Is a numerical value that describes the likelihood that an event will happen or not. It is simply calculated using the ratio of the cardinality of the event and cardinality of the sample space.

KNOW THIS!
Probability of a simple event is defined as;
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦
P(E) = ;
n
where frequency refers to the number of times the event occurred and
n stands for the total number of elements in an experiment or the
number of repetitions

EXAMPLE

Two fair coins are tossed, and the outcome is recorded. These are the events of interest:
A: Observe at least one head
B: Observe at least one tail
Define the events A, B, A ∪ B, A ∩ B, and Ac as collections of simple events, and find their probabilities.

SOLUTION:

Recall from Example we have, the tossing

of coins twice, that the simple events for
this experiment are:
E1: HH
E2: HT
E3: TH
E4: TT

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 Since, we know that that each simple event has probability 1/4. Event A, at least one head, occurs if E1, E2, or E3 occurs, thus,
𝟑
A = {E1, E2, E3} the probability of getting at least one H is, P(A) =
𝟒
Therefore, we can now say that the probability of getting at least one head is 75%
𝟏
and that Ac = {E4} P(Ac) =
𝟒

Similarly, in finding for the event B, at least one tail, we have,

𝟑
B = {E2, E3, E4} the probability of getting at least one T is, P(B) =
𝟒

*NOTE: The sum of the probabilities for all simple events in S equals 1.

Now to solve for the Union (∪) and intersection (∩ ) of the event, we have,
𝟒
A ∪ B = {E1, E2, E3, E4} P(A ∪ B) = =𝟏
𝟒
𝟐 𝟏
A ∩ B = {E2, E3} P(A ∩ B) = 𝟒or 𝟐

TAKE NOTE

RULE FOR COMPLEMENTS

P(Ec) = 1 – P(E)

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EXAMPLE

A pair of dice is thrown. The event that the total of the 2 dice is prime is the set { (1,1), (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (4,1), (4,3), (5,2), (5,6), (6,1), (6,5)}. We
know that there are 36 events in total (since there are 2 dice, 6 elements each die) in the sample space. Thus, the probability of getting the sum that is prime is:

Solution:

15 5
P(E) = 36 = 12 simply to say, 41.67% is the probability of getting the sum that is prime.

EXAMPLE

If a card is selected at random from standard deck of 52 cards, the event of interest are:
A: Black Jack
B: Face cards
Define the events A, B, A ∪ B, A ∩ B, and Ac as collections of simple events, and find their probabilities.

Solution:
We know that there are 52 cards in a deck and there are 2 black Jacks (Jack of spade and Jack of clubs), thus, at random the probability of getting 2 black jack is:
A = { jack of spades, jack of clubs}
2 1
P(A) = 52 = 26 or approximately 3.85% probability or chance.

In solving for event B:

B = {K of hearts, Q of hearts, J of hearts, K of diamonds, Q of diamonds, J of diamonds, K of spades, Q of spades, J of spades, K of clubs, Q of clubs, J of
clubs)
12 3
P(B) = 52 = 13 or 23.08% chance of getting face cards. Probability and Statistics
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JMNacar‖[email protected]
EXAMPLE

Aaron Judge has a bag containing colored baseballs. There are 6 red, 4 blue and 8 green baseballs. What is the probability that a chosen baseball is NOT red?

Solution:

Since there are 6 red baseballs in the bag, then the probability of getting the red ball is:
6 1
P(R) = 18 = 3.
However, we were looking for the probability of not getting the red baseballs, thus using the complement rule
P(NOT R) = 1 – P(R)
1 2
P(NOT R) = 1 – (3) = 3

EXAMPLE

An experiment can result in one of five equally likely simple events, E1, E2, . . . , E5. Events A and B are defined as follows:
A = {E1, E3}
B = {E1, E2, E4, E5}

Find the probabilities associated with the following events by listing the simple events in each.
a. Ac
b. A∩B
c. A∪ B

Solution:

a. Ac = {E2, E4, E5} (since we need to find all the values or elements that is not in A.)
b. A ∩ B = {E1} (since only E1 is the common element between A and B)
c. A ∪ B = {E1, E2, E3 , E4, E5} (all the elements)
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 P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)

Take note that this rule may be extended for a sequence with more than 2 elements.

EXAMPLE

A coin is tossed and right after a die is also rolled. What is the probability of getting a head followed by getting a 4?

Solution:
Let A be the event of getting H from tossing a coin and let B be the event of getting 4 from rolling a die, then

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)

Since we know that P(A) = 1Τ2 and P(B) = 1Τ6, with the formula that we have
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)
P(A ∩ B) = 1Τ2 x 1Τ6
P(A ∩ B) = 1Τ12
Thus, the probability of getting a H then followed by a 4 is 8.33%

EXAMPLE

A pair of dice is rolled thrice. What is the probability of getting doubles in the three rolls?
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Solution: JMNacar‖[email protected]
 The multiplication rule for probability is helpful in computing probabilities. However, it must be dealt with proper care, it is because, in other sequences of events, the outcome
of one does affect the outcome of another. These events are called dependent events.
One good example of this is the drawing of the ball from a bag and there is no replacement happening. Meaning to say, that once the ball was taken out, it should not be
included in the number of counts anymore.

Multiplication Rule of Probability: Dependent Events

The two events A and B are dependent such that the outcome of the first does affect the outcome of the other. Then, the probability of event A followed by event B is given by,

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B|A) or P(A ∩ B) = P(B) x P(A|B)

Where P(A) is the probability that event A happens and P(A|B) is the probability that event B happens after A happened and vice versa.
Tip: You might want to remember or review your lesson on FCP with and without replacement

EXAMPLE David Blaine draws 2 cards at random from a standard deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the probability of getting 2 ace cards?

Solution:
Since there is no replacement allowed, drawing the 1st card will have and effect on the outcome of drawing the 2nd card. Let A
be the event of choosing an ace on the first draw and B be the event on choosing another ace card on the 2nd draw.

we know that P(A) = 𝟒Τ𝟓𝟐 (four aces and 52 card) or 1Τ13

since, one ace is already being drawn, there will only be 51 cards and only 3 aces left, thus
P(P(B|A)) = 𝟑Τ𝟓𝟏 or 1Τ17
Therefore,
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B|A)
P(A ∩ B) = 1Τ13 x 1Τ17
Probability and Statistics
P(A ∩ B) = 1Τ221 or the possibility of getting an ace card is 0.45% Bp. Pueblos Senior High School
JMNacar‖[email protected]
EXAMPLE

JM has a candy box containing 9 chocolate candies and 12 lollipops. If he choose 2 of them at random, what is the probability that he gets 2 lollipops?

Solution:

We already know that the probability of JM getting lollipop at random on first pick is 12Τ21 (since there are 21 candies in all)
On the second pick the probability of getting another lollipop is 11Τ20, then,
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B|A)
P(A ∩ B) = 12Τ21 x 11Τ20
P(A ∩ B) = 11Τ35 or the probability of getting 2 lollipops is 31.4%

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 PROBABILITY OF COMPOUND EVENTS

Addition Rule for Probability: Mutually Exclusive Events

The probability of a single event that is made up to two different mutually exclusive events is given by:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B)

If you can still remember the definition of a Mutually Exclusive event wherein the two events have no common outcome or element.

The illustration below is a Venn diagram representation of two such events with no simple events in common.
S

Two disjoint or mutually exclusive events

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EXAMPLE

A card is drawn at random from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is an ace or king?

Solution:

The event ace or king is made up of two different events. Since we know that the two are independent, (no common elements) and we are trying to find the probability of their union, thus:
Let A be the event in getting an Ace
and B be the event of getting a King

P(A) = 4Τ52 or 1Τ13 and P(B) = 4Τ52 or 1Τ13 (both are the same since in a standard deck of cards there are 4 aces and 4 kings in total), thus:

P(Ace or king) = 1Τ13 + 1Τ13 = 2Τ13 or that 15.38% is the probabiliyi of getting ace or a king in drawing at random a standard deck of card.

EXAMPLE

A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum is 5 or 6?

Solution:

The event were we can obtain an answer with a sum of 5 is the set {(1,4), (2,3), 3,2) and (4,1)}. While the set with a sum of 6 is the set {(1,5), (2,4), 3,3) , (4,2) (5,1)}. The total number of
elements are 36 in the sample space. Therefore,

4 5 9 1
P(5 or 6) = 36 + 36 = 36 or 4, thus 25% is the probability of getting the sum of 5 or 6

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 There could be an event that when divided into two other events and some of the outcomes are the same. These are called inclusive events. The probability of these events are computed
by adding the individual probabilities of the two events and then subtract it with the probability of their common elements.

Addition Rule for Probability: Inclusive Events

If events A and B are given such that A and B have common outcomes, then their probability of event is determined by:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

If you can still remember the definition of a Mutually Exclusive event wherein the two events have no common outcome or element.

EXAMPLE

if a card is selected at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability that the card drawn is a red card or a face card?

Solution:

Let us first identify the probability of each events:

Let A be the probability that a card drawn is a red card
B be the probability that a card drawn is face card

26
A = P(red card) = 52 (since there are 13 red cards each in diamonds and hearts card)
12
B = P(face card) = 52
Let us also find the probability that a card drawn is a red card and a face card, thus
6
P(A ∩ B) = P(red face card) = 52

Now, to solve this example problem, we will be using the given formula:
26 12 6
P(A ∩ B) = 52 + 52 – 52
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P(A ∩ B) = JMNacar‖[email protected]
13
 NEED TO KNOW

How to Calculate the Probability of an Event

1. List all the simple events in the sample space.
2. Assign an appropriate probability to each simple event.
3. Determine which simple events result in the event of interest.
4. Sum the probabilities of the simple events that result in the
Probability and Statistics
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Probability and Statistics
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REQUIREMENTS FOR SIMPLE-EVENT PROBABILITIES
• Each probability must lie between 0 and 1.
•

Probability and Statistics

Bp. Pueblos Senior High School
JMNacar‖[email protected]