Introduction to Simulation

Chapter-One
 1.1 What is Simulation and Modeling ?
 A Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time.
 It is the process of imitating the operations of various kinds of real world facilities or process.
 Simulation involves the generation of an artificial history of an system and the observations
of that history to draw the inferences concerning the operating characteristics of the real
world.
 A model usually takes the form of a sets of assumptions concerning the operation of the
system. The assumptions are expressed in Mathematical relationships, Logical relationships
and Symbolic relationships between the entities of the system.
 The behavior of a system as it evolves over time is studied by developing a simulation model.
 Once a model is developed and validated, a model can be used to investigate a wide variety
of “ what-if ” questions about the real world system.
 Simulation Modeling can be used both as an analysis tool to predicting the effect of
changes to existing system and as a design tool to predict the performance of new systems
under varying sets of circumstances.
 1.2 System and System Environment
 A system is defined as an aggregation or assemblage of objects joined in some regular
interaction or interdependence toward the accomplishment of some purpose.
 An example is an production system manufacturing automobiles. The machines, component
parts, and workers operates jointly along an assembly line to produce a high-quality
vehicle.
 The external components which interact with the system and produce necessary changes are
said to constitute the system environment. In modeling systems, it is necessary to decide on
the boundary between the system and its environment.
 Components of a System
• Entity : An entity is an object of interest in a system. Example: In the factory system,
departments, orders, parts and products are The entities.
• Attribute: An attribute denotes the property of an entity. Example: Quantities for each
order, type of part, or number of machines in a Department are attributes of factory
system.
• Activity: Any process causing changes in a system is called as an activity. Example:
Manufacturing process of the department.
 1.2 System and System Environment
• State of the System :The state of a system is defined as the collection of variables
necessary to describe a system at any time, relative to the objective of study. In other
words, state of the system mean a description of all the entities, attributes and activities
as they exist at one point in time.
• Event: An event is defined as an instantaneous occurrence that may change the state of
the system.
• Endogenous System: The term endogenous is used to describe activities and events
occurring within a system. In the bank study the completion of service of a customer is
an endogenous event.
• Exogenous System: The term exogenous is used to describe activities and events in the
environment that affect the system. In the bank the arrival of a customer is an exogenous
event.
• Closed System: A system for which there is no exogenous activity and event is said to
be a closed. Example: Water in an insulated flask.
• Open system: A system for which there is exogenous activity and event is said to be a
open. Example: Bank system.
Example: Components of a System
 1.3 Discrete and continuous systems
 Continuous system: A continuous  Discrete system: A discrete system is one in which
system is one in which the state the state variable(s) change only at a discrete set of
variable(s) change continuously over points in time.
time.
 The bank is an example of a discrete system: The
 An example is the head of water behind state variable, the number of customers in the bank,
a dam. changes only when a customer arrives or when the
service provided a customer is completed.
 1.4 Types of Models
 Mathematical model : A mathematical model uses symbolic notation and mathematical
equations to represent a system.
 Static simulation model: A static simulation model, also called a Monte Carlo simulation,
represents a system at a particular point in time.
 Dynamic simulation: Dynamic simulation models represent systems as they change over
time.
 Deterministic models: Deterministic models have a known set of inputs, which will result in
a unique set of outputs.
 Stochastic simulation: stochastic simulation model has one or more random variables as
inputs. Random inputs lead to random outputs. Since the outputs are random, they can be
considered only as estimates of the true characteristics of a model.
 Discrete and continuous model
 Physical Model
1.5 Steps in simulation study
 1.5 Steps in simulation study
1. Problem formulation
 Every study begins with a statement of the problem, provided by policy makers. Analyst
ensures its clearly understood. If it is developed by analyst policy makers should
understand and agree with it.
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan:
 The objectives indicate the questions to be answered by simulation. At this point a
determination should be made concerning whether simulation is the appropriate
methodology. Assuming it is appropriate, the overall project plan should include
• A statement of the alternative systems
• A method for evaluating the effectiveness of these alternatives
• Plans for the study in terms of the number of people involved
• Cost of the study
• The number of days required to accomplish each phase of the work with the
anticipated results.
 1.5 Steps in simulation study
3. Model conceptualization
 The art of modeling is enhanced by an ability to abstract the essential features of a
problem, to select and modify basic assumptions that characterize the system, and then
to enrich and elaborate the model until a useful approximation results.
 It is best to start with a simple model and build toward greater complexity. Model
conceptualization enhance the quality of the resulting model and increase the confidence
of the model user in the application of the model.
4. Data collection
 There is a constant interplay between the construction of the model and the collection of
the needed input data.
 As the complexity of the model changes, the required data elements can also change.
 1.5 Steps in simulation study
5. Model Translation
 Most real-world systems result in models that require a great deal of information storage
and computation, so the model must be entered into a computer-recognizable format.
 It can be programmed by using simulation languages or special purpose simulation
software. Simulation languages are powerful and flexible. Simulation software models
development time can be reduced.
6. Verified
 It pertains to the computer program prepared for simulation model and checking the
performance. If the input parameters and logical structure and correctly represented,
verification is completed.
7. Validated
 It is the determination that a model is an accurate representation of the real system.
Achieved through calibration of the model, an iterative process of comparing the model to
actual system behavior and the discrepancies between the two.
 1.5 Steps in simulation study
8. Experimental Design
 The alternatives that are to be simulated must be determined. Which alternatives to simulate
may be a function of runs. For each system design, decisions need to be made concerning
• Length of the initialization period
• Length of simulation runs
• Number of replication to be made of each run

9. Production runs and analysis

 They are used to estimate measures of performance for the system designs that are being
simulated.

10. More runs

 Based on the analysis of runs that have been completed. The analyst determines if
additional runs are needed and what design those additional experiments should follow.
 1.5 Steps in simulation study
11. Documentation and reporting
 Two types of documentation: Program documentation and Process documentation.
• Program documentation: It can be used again by the same or different analysts to
understand how the program operates. Further modification will be easier. Model users can
change the input parameters for better performance.
• Process documentation : It gives the history of a simulation project. The result of all
analysis should be reported clearly and concisely in a final report. This enables to review
the final formulation and alternatives, results of the experiments and the recommended
solution to the problem. The final report provides a vehicle of certification.
12. Implementation
 The success of the implementation phase depends on how well the previous eleven steps have
been performed.
 It is also contingent upon how thoroughly the analyst has involved the ultimate model user
during the entire simulation process.
 If the model user has been thoroughly involved during the model-building process and if the
model user understands the nature of the model and its outputs, the likelihood of a vigorous
implementation is enhanced.
 The simulation model building can be broken into 4 phases
 I Phase  III Phase
• Consists of steps 1 and 2 • Consists of steps 8,9 and 10
• It is period of discovery/orientation • Conceives a thorough plan for
• The analyst may have to restart the experimenting
process if it is not fine-tuned • Discrete-event stochastic is a statistical
• Recalibrations and clarifications experiment
may occur in this phase or another • The output variables are estimates that
phase. contain random error and therefore
 II Phase proper statistical analysis is required.
• Consists of steps 3,4,5,6 and 7  IV Phase
• A continuing interplay is required • Consists of steps 11 and 12
among the steps • Successful implementation depends on
• Exclusion of model user results in the involvement of user and every steps
implications during implementation successful completion.
 Develop Specification Model  Develop Computational Model
• A more detailed specification of • Executable simulation model
the model including more • Software approach
specifics • General purpose programming language
• Collect data to populate model • Special purpose simulation language
Traffic example: Road • Simulation package
geometry, signal timing,
expected traffic demand, • Approach often depends on need for
driver behavior customization and economics
Empirical data or probability Where do you make your money?
distributions often used Defense vs. commercial industry
• Development of algorithms • Other (non-functional) requirements
necessary to include in the model • Performance
Example: Path planning for • Interoperability with other
vehicles models/tools/data
 Model Validation
• Did I build the right model?
 Model Verification • Does the computational model match the
• Did I build the model right? • actual (or envisioned) system?
• Does the computational model • Typically, compare against
match the Measurements of actual system
• specification model? An analytic (mathematical) model of
• Largely a software engineering the system
activity Another simulation model
• (debugging) • By necessity, always an incomplete
activity!
• Not to be confused with
Often can only validate portions of the
correctness model
If you can validate the simulation with
100% certainty, why build the
simulation?
 1.6 When Simulation is the Appropriate Tool
 Simulation enables the study of and experimentation with the internal interactions of a complex system, or of a
subsystem within a complex system.
 Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated and the effect of those alternations
on the model‘s behavior can be observer.
 The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model can be of great value toward suggesting improvement
in the system under investigation.
 By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting outputs, valuable insight may be obtained into
which variables are most important and how variables interact.
 Simulation can be used to experiment with new designs or policies prior to implementation, so
as to prepare for what may happen.
 Simulation can be used to verify analytic solutions.
 By simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements can be determined.
 Simulation models designed for training, allow learning without the cost and disruption of on-the-job learning.
 Animation shows a system in simulated operation so that the plan can be visualized.
 The modern system(factory, water fabrication plant, service organization, etc.) is so complex that the
interactions can be treated only through simulation.
 1.7 When Simulation is Not Appropriate
 Simulation should be used when the problem cannot be solved using common sense.
 Simulation should not be used if the problem can be solved analytically.
 Simulation should not be used, if it is easier to perform direct experiments.
 Simulation should not be used, if the costs exceeds savings.
 Simulation should not be performed, if the resources or time are not available.
 If no data is available, not even estimate simulation is not advised.
 If there is not enough time or the person are not available, simulation is not appropriate.
 If managers have unreasonable expectation say, too much soon – or the power of
simulation is over estimated, simulation may not be appropriate.
 If system behavior is too complex or cannot be defined, simulation is not appropriate.
 1.8 Advantages & Disadvantages of Simulation
 Advantages
1. New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information flows, organizational procedures,
and so on can be explored without disrupting ongoing operations of the real system.
2. New hardware .designs, physical layouts, transportation systems, and so on can be tested without
committing resources for their acquisition.
3. Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can be tested for feasibility.
4. Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-up or slow-down of the phenomena
under investigation.
5. Insight can be obtained about the interaction of variables.
6. Insight can be obtained about the importance of variables to the performance of the system.
7. Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work in process, information, materials,
and so on are being delayed excessively.
8. A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates rather than how individuals
think the system operates. .
9. What if' questions can be answered. This is particularly useful in the design of new systems.
 1.8 Advantages & Disadvantages of Simulation
 Disadvantages
1. Model building requires special training. It is an art that is learned over time and
through experience.
2. Simulation results can be difficult to interpret. Most simulation outputs are
essentially random variables, so it can be hard to distinguish whether an
observation is a result of system interrelationships. or of randomness.
3. Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive. Skimping
on resources for modeling and analysis could result in a simulation model or
analysis that is not sufficient to the task.
4. Simulation is used in some cases when an analytical solution is possible or even
preferable.
 1.9 Area of Application
 Manufacturing Applications
• Dynamic modeling of continuous manufacturing systems, using analogies to electrical
systems
• Modeling for quality and productivity in steel cord manufacturing
• Shared resource capacity analysis in biotech manufacturing
• Neutral information model for simulating machine shop operations

 Construction Engineering and Project Management

• Impact of multitasking and merge bias on procurement of complex equipment
• Application of lean concepts and simulation for drainage operations maintenance crews
• Building a virtual shop model for steel fabrication
• Simulation of the residential lumber supply chain
 1.9 Area of Application
 Military Applications
• Modeling leadership effects and recruit type in a Army recruiting station.
• Design and test of an intelligent controller for autonomous underwater vehicles.
• Modeling military requirements for non-war fighting operations.
• Multitrajectory performance for varying scenario sizes.
 Semiconductor Manufacturing
• Comparison of dispatching rules using large-facility models.
• Assessment of potential gains in productivity due to proactive retied management.
• Comparison of a 200 mm and 300 mm X-ray lithography cell.
• 300 mm logistic system risk reduction.
 Human Systems
• Modeling human performance in complex systems.
• Studying the human element in out traffic control.
 1.9 Area of Application
 Logistics, Transportation and Distribution Applications
• Evaluating the potential benefits of a rail-traffic planning algorithm.
• Evaluating strategies to improve railroad performance.
• Analysis of passenger flows in an airport terminal.
• Logistic issues in autonomous food production systems for extended duration space
exploration.
• Production distribution in newspaper industry.

 Business Process Simulation

• Impact of connection bank redesign on airport gate assignment.
• Product development program planning.
• Reconciliation of business and system modeling.
• Personal forecasting and strategic workforce planning.
• Optimization of a telecommunications billing system
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