(eBook PDF) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of

Data, 2nd Edition pdf download

https://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-statistics-unlocking-
the-power-of-data-2nd-edition/

Download more ebook from https://ebooksecure.com

We believe these products will be a great fit for you. Click
the link to download now, or visit ebooksecure.com
to discover even more!

(eBook PDF) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data,

2nd Edition

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-statistics-unlocking-
the-power-of-data-2nd-edition/

(eBook PDF) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-statistics-unlocking-
the-power-of-data/

(eBook PDF) Introductory Statistics Exploring the World

Through Data 2nd

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-introductory-statistics-
exploring-the-world-through-data-2nd/

(eBook PDF) Statistics: Learning from Data 2nd Edition

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-statistics-learning-
from-data-2nd-edition/
Data Analysis with Microsoft Power Bi - eBook PDF

https://ebooksecure.com/download/data-analysis-with-microsoft-
power-bi-ebook-pdf/

Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data

5th Edition Alan Agresti - eBook PDF

https://ebooksecure.com/download/statistics-the-art-and-science-
of-learning-from-data-ebook-pdf/

(eBook PDF) Introductory Statistics: Exploring the

World Through Data 3rd Edition

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-introductory-statistics-
exploring-the-world-through-data-3rd-edition/

Big Data Application in Power Systems 1st Edition -

eBook PDF

https://ebooksecure.com/download/big-data-application-in-power-
systems-ebook-pdf/

(eBook PDF) The Power of Art 3rd Edition

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-the-power-of-art-3rd-
edition/
 CONTENTS

Preface ix

Unit A: Data 1

Chapter 1. Collecting Data 2

1.1. The Structure of Data 4
1.2. Sampling from a Population 16
1.3. Experiments and Observational Studies 29

Chapter 2. Describing Data 46

2.1. Categorical Variables 48
2.2. One Quantitative Variable: Shape and Center 63
2.3. One Quantitative Variable: Measures of Spread 77
2.4. Boxplots and Quantitative/Categorical Relationships 93
2.5. Two Quantitative Variables: Scatterplot and Correlation 106
2.6. Two Quantitative Variables: Linear Regression 123
2.7. Data Visualization and Multiple Variables 137

Unit A: Essential Synthesis 161

Review Exercises 174
Projects Online

Unit B: Understanding Inference 193

Chapter 3. Confidence Intervals 194

3.1. Sampling Distributions 196
3.2. Understanding and Interpreting Confidence Intervals 213
3.3. Constructing Bootstrap Confidence Intervals 228
3.4. Bootstrap Confidence Intervals using Percentiles 242

Chapter 4. Hypothesis Tests 256

4.1. Introducing Hypothesis Tests 258
4.2. Measuring Evidence with P-values 272
4.3. Determining Statistical Significance 288
4.4. A Closer Look at Testing 303
4.5. Making Connections 318

Unit B: Essential Synthesis 341

Review Exercises 351
Projects Online

vi
 CONTENTS vii

Unit C: Inference with Normal and t-Distributions 369

Chapter 5. Approximating with a Distribution 370

5.1. Hypothesis Tests Using Normal Distributions 372
5.2. Confidence Intervals Using Normal Distributions 387

Chapter 6. Inference for Means and Proportions 402

6.1. Inference for a Proportion
6.1-D Distribution of a Proportion 404
6.1-CI Confidence Interval for a Proportion 407
6.1-HT Hypothesis Test for a Proportion 414
6.2. Inference for a Mean
6.2-D Distribution of a Mean 419
6.2-CI Confidence Interval for a Mean 424
6.2-HT Hypothesis Test for a Mean 433
6.3. Inference for a Difference in Proportions
6.3-D Distribution of a Difference in Proportions 438
6.3-CI Confidence Interval for a Difference in Proportions 441
6.3-HT Hypothesis Test for a Difference in Proportions 446
6.4. Inference for a Difference in Means
6.4-D Distribution of a Difference in Means 452
6.4-CI Confidence Interval for a Difference in Means 455
6.4-HT Hypothesis Test for a Difference in Means 461
6.5. Paired Difference in Means 468

Unit C: Essential Synthesis 477

Review Exercises 489
Projects Online

Unit D: Inference for Multiple Parameters 505

Chapter 7. Chi-Square Tests for Categorical Variables 506

7.1. Testing Goodness-of-Fit for a Single Categorical Variable 508
7.2. Testing for an Association between Two Categorical Variables 523

Chapter 8. ANOVA to Compare Means 538

8.1. Analysis of Variance 540
8.2. Pairwise Comparisons and Inference after ANOVA 563

Chapter 9. Inference for Regression 574

9.1. Inference for Slope and Correlation 576
9.2. ANOVA for Regression 591
9.3. Confidence and Prediction Intervals 603
viii CONTENTS

Chapter 10. Multiple Regression 610

10.1. Multiple Predictors 612
10.2. Checking Conditions for a Regression Model 624
10.3. Using Multiple Regression 633

Unit D: Essential Synthesis 647

Review Exercises 661
Projects Online

The Big Picture: Essential Synthesis 669

Exercises for the Big Picture: Essential Synthesis 683

Chapter P. Probability Basics 688

P.1. Probability Rules 690
P.2. Tree Diagrams and Bayes’ Rule 702
P.3. Random Variables and Probability Functions 709
P.4. Binomial Probabilities 716
P.5. Density Curves and the Normal Distribution 724

Appendix A. Chapter Summaries 737

Appendix B. Selected Dataset Descriptions 749
Partial Answers 761
Index
General Index 783
Data Index 786
PREFACE

“Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary a qualification for

efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.”
–H.G. Wells

Why We Wrote this Book

Helping students make sense of data will serve them well in life and in any field they
might choose. Our goal in writing this book is to help students understand, appre-
ciate, and use the power of statistics and to help instructors teach an outstanding
course in statistics.
The text is designed for use in an introductory statistics course. The focus
throughout is on data analysis and the primary goal is to enable students to
effectively collect data, analyze data, and interpret conclusions drawn from data.
The text is driven by real data and real applications. Although the only prerequisite
is a minimal working knowledge of algebra, students completing the course should
be able to accurately interpret statistical results and to analyze straightforward
datasets. The text is designed to give students a sense of the power of data analysis;
our hope is that many students learning from this book will want to continue
developing their statistical knowledge.
Students who learn from this text should finish with
• A solid conceptual understanding of the key concepts of statistical inference: esti-
mation with intervals and testing for significance.
• The ability to do straightforward data analysis, including summarizing data, visu-
alizing data, and inference using either traditional methods or modern resampling
methods.
• Experience using technology to perform a variety of different statistical
procedures.
• An understanding of the importance of data collection, the ability to recognize
limitations in data collection methods, and an awareness of the role that data col-
lection plays in determining the scope of inference.
• The knowledge of which statistical methods to use in which situations and the
ability to interpret the results effectively and in context.
• An awareness of the power of data.

Building Conceptual Understanding

with Simulation Methods
This book takes a unique approach of utilizing computer simulation methods to
introduce students to the key ideas of statistical inference. Methods such as bootstrap
intervals and randomization tests are very intuitive to novice students and capitalize
on visual learning skills students bring to the classroom. With proper use of com-
puter support, they are accessible at very early stages of a course with little formal
background. Our text introduces statistical inference through these resampling and
randomization methods, not only because these methods are becoming increasingly
important for statisticians in their own right but also because they are outstanding
in building students’ conceptual understanding of the key ideas.
Our text includes the more traditional methods such as t-tests, chi-square tests,
etc., but only after students have developed a strong intuitive understanding of

ix
x PREFACE

inference through randomization methods. At this point students have a conceptual

understanding and appreciation for the results they can then compute using the
more traditional methods. We believe that this approach helps students realize
that although the formulas may take different forms for different types of data,
the conceptual framework underlying most statistical methods remains the same.
Our experience has been that after using the intuitive simulation-based methods to
introduce the core ideas, students understand and can move quickly through most
of the traditional techniques.
Sir R.A. Fisher, widely considered the father of modern statistics, said of simu-
lation and permutation methods in 1936:

“Actually, the statistician does not carry out this very simple and very tedious process,
but his conclusions have no justification beyond the fact that they agree with those
which could have been arrived at by this elementary method.”

Modern technology has made these methods, too ‘tedious’ to apply in 1936, now
readily accessible. As George Cobb wrote in 2007:

“... despite broad acceptance and rapid growth in enrollments, the consensus curricu-
lum is still an unwitting prisoner of history. What we teach is largely the technical
machinery of numerical approximations based on the normal distribution and its
many subsidiary cogs. This machinery was once necessary, because the conceptu-
ally simpler alternative based on permutations was computationally beyond our
reach. Before computers statisticians had no choice. These days we have no excuse.
Randomization-based inference makes a direct connection between data production
and the logic of inference that deserves to be at the core of every introductory course.”

Building Understanding and Proficiency

with Technology
Technology is an integral part of modern statistics, but this text does not require any
specific software. We have developed a user-friendly set of online interactive dynamic
tools, StatKey, to illustrate key ideas and analyze data with modern simulation-based
methods. StatKey is freely available with data from the text integrated. We also pro-
vide Companion Manuals, tied directly to the text, for other popular technology
options. The text uses many real datasets which are electronically available in multi-
ple formats.

Building a Framework for the Big Picture:

Essential Synthesis
One of the drawbacks of many current texts is the fragmentation of ideas into disjoint
pieces. While the segmentation helps students understand the individual pieces, we
believe that integration of the parts into a coherent whole is also essential. To address
this we have sections called Essential Synthesis at the end of each unit, in which
students are asked to take a step back and look at the big picture. We hope that
these sections, which include case studies, will help to prepare students for the kind
of statistical thinking they will encounter after finishing the course.

Building Student Interest with Engaging Examples

and Exercises
This text contains over 300 fully worked-out examples and over 1800 exercises, which
are the heart of this text and the key to learning statistics. One of the great things
 PREFACE xi

about statistics is that it is relevant in so many fields. We have tried to find studies
and datasets that will capture the interest of students—and instructors! We hope all
users of this text find many fun and useful tidbits of information from the datasets,
examples, and exercises, above and beyond the statistical knowledge gained.
The exercise sets at the end of every section assess computation, interpretation,
and understanding using a variety of problem types. Some features of the exercise
sets include:
• Skill Builders. After every section, the exercise set starts with skill-building
exercises, designed to be straightforward and to ensure that students have the
basic skills and confidence to tackle the more involved problems with real data.
• Lots of real data. After the opening skill builders, the vast majority of the exercises
in a section involve real data from a wide variety of disciplines. These allow stu-
dents to practice the ideas of the section and to see how statistics is used in actual
practice in addition to illustrating the power and wide applicability of statistics.
These exercises call for interpretations of the statistical findings in the context of
a real situation.
• Exercises using technology. While many exercises provide summary statistics,
some problems in each exercise set invite students to use technology to analyze
raw data. All datasets, and software-specific companion manuals, are available
electronically.
• Essential synthesis and review. Exercises at the end of each unit let students choose
from among a wider assortment of possible approaches, without the guiding cues
associated with section-specific exercise sets. These exercises help students see the
big picture and prepare them for determining appropriate analysis methods.

Building Confidence with Robust Student

and Instructor Resources
This text has many additional resources designed to facilitate and enhance its use in
teaching and learning statistics. The following are all readily accessible and organized
to make them easy to find and easy to use. Almost all were written exclusively by the
authors.

Resources for students and instructors:

• StatKey; online interactive dynamic tools (www.lock5stat.com/statkey)
• Software-specific companion manuals (www.wiley.com/college/lock)
• All datasets in multiple formats (www.wiley.com/college/lock)
• Video solutions for all examples and video tutorials for all learning goals
(www.wiley.com/college/lock)
• WileyPLUS—an innovative, research-based online environment for effective
teaching and learning
• Student solution manual with fully worked solutions to odd-numbered exercises

Resources for instructors

• Complete instructors manual with sample syllabi, teaching tips and recommended
class examples, class activities, homework assignments, and student project
assignments
• Short videos with teaching tips for instructors, for every section
• Detailed interactive class activities with handouts, for every section
xii PREFACE

• PowerPoint slides, for every section, with or without integrated clicker questions
• In-class example worksheets ready to go, for every section
• Clicker questions, for every section
• A variety of different types of student projects, for every unit
• Fully worked out solutions to all exercises
• Test bank with a wide variety of question types
• The full WileyPLUS learning management system at your disposal

Content and Organization

UNIT A: Data
The first unit deals with data—how to obtain data (Chapter 1) and how to summa-
rize and visualize the information in data (Chapter 2). We explore how the method
of data collection influences the types of conclusions that can be drawn and how
the type of data (categorical or quantitative) helps determine the most appropriate
numerical and/or graphical technique for describing a single variable or investigating
a relationship between two variables. We end the unit discussing multiple variables
and exploring a variety of additional ways to display data.

UNIT B: Understanding Inference

In Unit B we develop the key ideas of statistical inference—estimation and testing—
using simulation methods to build understanding and to carry out the analysis.
Chapter 3 introduces the idea of using information from a single sample to provide
an estimate for a population, and uses a bootstrap distribution to determine the
uncertainty in the estimate. In Chapter 4 we illustrate the important ideas for
testing statistical hypotheses, again using simple simulations that mimic the random
processes of data production.

UNIT C: Inference with Normal and t-Distributions

In Unit C we see how theoretical distributions, such as the classic, bell-shaped nor-
mal curve, can be used to approximate the distributions of sample statistics that we
encounter in Unit B. Chapter 5 shows, in general, how the normal curve can be used
to facilitate constructing confidence intervals and conducting hypothesis tests. In
Chapter 6 we see how to estimate standard errors with formulas and use the normal
or t-distributions in situations involving means, proportions, differences in means,
and differences in proportions. Since the main ideas of inference have already been
covered in Unit B, Chapter 6 has many very short sections that can be combined and
covered in almost any order.

UNIT D: Inference for Multiple Parameters

In Unit D we consider statistical inference for situations with multiple parame-
ters: testing categorical variables with more than two categories (chi-square tests
in Chapter 7), comparing means between more than two groups (ANOVA in
Chapter 8), making inferences using the slope and intercept of a regression model
(simple linear regression in Chapter 9), and building regression models with more
than one explanatory variable (multiple regression in Chapter 10).

The Big Picture: Essential Synthesis

This section gives a quick overview of all of the units and asks students to put the
pieces together with questions related to a case study on speed dating that draws on
ideas from throughout the text.
 PREFACE xiii

Chapter P: Probability Basics

This is an optional chapter covering basic ideas of formal probability theory. The
material in this chapter is independent of the other chapters and can be covered at
any point in a course or omitted entirely.

Changes in the Second Edition

• Many New Exercises. The Second Edition includes over 300 completely new
exercises, almost all of which use real data. As always, our goal has been to
continue to try to find datasets and studies of interest to students and instructors.
• Many Updated Exercises. In addition to the many new exercises, this edition also
includes over 100 exercises that have been updated with new data.
• Multiple Variables and Data Visualization. Chapter 2 has a new section 2.7: Multi-
ple Variables and Data Visualization, in which we consider a variety of creative and
effective ways to visualize data with additional variables and/or data that include
geographic or time variables, and illustrate the value of including additional
variables.
• Chapter 4 Reorganized. Chapter 4 on hypothesis tests has been reorganized to
focus more explicitly on one key idea at a time (hypotheses, randomization distri-
butions, p-values, significance) before discussing additional considerations about
testing.
• Chapter 5 Rewritten. Chapter 5 has been rewritten to improve the transition from
Unit B (using simulation methods) to Unit C (using normal and t-based inference).
• Chapter 6 Sections Re-labeled. The sections of Chapter 6 have been re-numbered,
and some of the sections have been made more concise, to further emphasize the
fact that the sections are short and designed to be combined and covered in almost
any order.
• Probability Chapter Renamed. The Probability chapter has been renamed
Chapter P to further emphasize the fact that the chapter is independent of the
rest of the material and can be omitted or covered at any point in the course. In
addition, a new section has been added to the chapter, on density curves and the
normal distribution.
• StatKey Enhanced. The online interactive dynamic software StatKey has been
enhanced, including adding the option to upload whole datasets with multiple
variables.
• And Much More! We have also made many additional edits to the text to improve
the flow and clarity, keep it current, and respond to student and user feedback.

Tips for Students

• Do the Exercises! The key to learning statistics is to try lots of the exercises. We
hope you find them interesting!
• Videos To aid student learning, we have created video solutions for all examples
and short video tutorials for all learning goals. These are available through Wiley-
PLUS or the Student Companion Site. Check them out!
• Partial Answers Partial answers to the odd-numbered problems are included in the
back of the book. These are partial answers, not full solutions or even complete
answers. In particular, many exercises expect you to interpret or explain or show
details, and you should do so! (Full solutions to the odd-numbered problems are
included with WileyPLUS or the Student Solutions Manual.)
xiv PREFACE

• Exercises Referencing Exercises Many of the datasets and studies included in

this book are introduced and then referenced again later. When this happens, we
include the earlier reference for your information, but you should not need to refer
back to the earlier reference. All necessary information will be included in the later
problem. The reference is there in case you get curious and want more information
or the source citation.
• Accuracy Statistics is not an exact science. Just about everything is an approxima-
tion, with very few exactly correct values. Don’t worry if your answer is slightly
different from your friend’s answer, or slightly different from the answer in the
back of the book. Especially with the simulation methods of Chapters 3 and 4,
a certain amount of variability in answers is a natural and inevitable part of the
process.

Acknowledgments
The team at John Wiley & Sons, including Joanna Dingle, Anne Scanlan-Rohrer,
Tom Kulesa, John LaVacca, Laura Abrams, Adria Giattino, Giana Milazzo, Tom
Nery, Billy Ray, Valerie Zaborski, and Laurie Rosatone, has provided wonderful
support and guidance, while also being great fun to work with. We especially appre-
ciate the fact that they have shared our great enthusiasm for this project throughout
our work together.
Ed Harcourt, Rich Sharp, Kevin Angstadt, and Yuxi Zhang are the programmers
behind StatKey. We are incredibly appreciative of all of their efforts to bring our
shared vision of these tools into a working reality and the many helpful suggestions
for enhancements. Thanks also to John Lock for hosting the lock5stat.com website.
Ann Cannon did a fabulous job of the monumental task of accuracy checking
the entire book, all exercise solutions, and making many helpful suggestions along
the way.
Many people helped us collect lots of interesting datasets and applications
that are so vital to a modern statistics text. These people include Edith Frazer,
Zan Armstrong, Adam Pearce, Jim Vallandingham, Rick Cleary, Ivan Ramler,
Tom DeRosa, Judy Graham, Bruce Frazer, Serge Onyper, Pamela Thatcher, Brad
Baldwin, Laura Fonken, Jeremy Groves, Michael Frazer, Linda Casserly, Paul Doty,
and Ellen Langer. We appreciate that more and more researchers are willing to
share their data to help students see the relevance of statistics to so many fields.
We appreciate many valuable discussions with colleagues and friends in the
statistics education community who have been active in developing this new
approach to teaching statistics, including Beth Chance, Laura Chihara, George
Cobb, Bob del Mas, Michelle Everson, Joan Garfield, Jeff Hamrick, Tim Hesterberg,
John Holcomb, Rebekah Isaak, Laura Le, Allan Rossman, Andrew Zieffler, and
Laura Ziegler. Thanks also to Jeff Tecosky-Feldman and Dan Flath for their early
support and encouragement for this project. Special thanks to Jessica Chapman for
her excellent work on the Test Bank.
We thank Roxy Peck for the use of her home in Los Osos, CA for a sabbatical
in the spring of 2011. Many of the words in this text were originally penned while
appreciating her wonderful view of Morro Bay.
We thank our students who provided much valuable feedback on all drafts
of the book, and who continue to help us improve the text and help us find
interesting datasets. We particularly thank Adrian Recinos, who read early drafts of
Chapters 3 and 4 to help check that they would be accessible to students with no
previous background in statistics.
We thank the many reviewers (listed at the end of this section) for their helpful
comments, suggestions, and insights. They have helped make this text significantly
better, and have helped give us confidence that this approach can work in a wide
variety of settings.
 PREFACE xv

We owe our love of both teaching and statistics at least in part to Ron Frazer,
who was teaching innovative statistics classes as far back as the 60’s and 70’s. He read
early versions of the book and was full of excitement and enthusiasm for the project.
He spent 88 years enjoying life and laughing, and his constant smile and optimism
are greatly missed.
The Second Edition of this book was written amidst many wonderful additions
to our growing family. We are especially grateful to Eugene Morgan, Amy Lock, and
Nidhi Kohli for their love and support of this family and this project. All three share
our love of statistics and have patiently put up with countless family conversations
about the book. We are also very grateful for the love and joy brought into our lives
by the next generation of Locks, all of whom have been born since the First Edition
of this book: Axel, Cal, and Daisy Lock Morgan, and Jocelyn Lock, who we hope
will also come to share our love of statistics!

Suggestions?
Our goal is to design materials that enable instructors to teach an excellent course
and help students learn, enjoy, and appreciate the subject of statistics. If you have
suggestions for ways in which we can improve the text and/or the available resources,
making them more helpful, accurate, clear, or interesting, please let us know. We
would love to hear from you! Our contact information is at www.lock5stat.com.

We hope you enjoy the journey!

Robin H. Lock Patti Frazer Lock
Kari Lock Morgan
Eric F. Lock Dennis F. Lock
xvi PREFACE

Reviewers for the Second Edition

Alyssa Armstrong Wittenberg University Barb Barnet University of Wisconsin
- Platteville
Kevin Beard University of Vermont Barbara Bennie University of Wisconsin
- La Crosse
Karen Benway University of Vermont Dale Bowman University of Memphis
Patricia Buchanan Penn State University Coskun Cetin California State University
- Sacramento
Jill A. Cochran Berry College Rafael Diaz California State University
- Sacramento
Kathryn Dobeck Lorain County Community Brandi Falley Texas Women’s University
College
John Fieberg University of Minnesota Elizabeth Brondos Fry University of Minnesota
Jennifer Galovich College of St. Benedict and Steven T. Garren James Madison University
St. John’s University
Mohinder Grewal Memorial University of Robert Hauss Mt. Hood Community
Newfoundland College
James E. Helmreich Marist College Carla L. Hill Marist College
Martin Jones College of Charleston Jeff Kollath Oregon State University
Paul Kvam University of Richmond David Laffie (formerly) California State
University - East Bay
Bernadette Lanciaux Rochester Institute of Technology Anne Marie S. Marshall Berry College
Gregory Mathews Loyola University Chicago Scott Maxwell University of Notre Dame
Kathleen McLaughlin University of Connecticut Sarah A Mustillo University of Notre Dame
Elaine T. Newman Sonoma State University Rachel Rader Ohio Northern University
David M. Reineke University of Wisconsin Rachel Roe-Dale Skidmore College
- La Crosse
Kimberly A. Roth Juniata College Dinesh Sharma James Madison University
Alla Sikorskii Michigan State University Karen Starin Columbus State
Community College
Paul Stephenson Grand Valley State University Asokan Variyath Memorial University
Lissa J. Yogan Valparaiso University Laura Ziegler Iowa State University

Reviewers and Class Testers for the First Edition

Wendy Ahrensen South Dakota St. Diane Benner Harrisburg Comm. College
Steven Bogart Shoreline Comm. College Mark Bulmer University of Queensland
Ken Butler Toronto-Scarborough Ann Cannon Cornell College
John “Butch” Chapelle Brookstone School George Cobb Mt. Holyoke University
Steven Condly U.S. Military Academy Salil Das Prince Georges Comm. College
Jackie Dietz Meredith College Carolyn Dobler Gustavus Adolphus
Robert Dobrow Carleton College Christiana Drake Univ. of Calif. - Davis
Katherine Earles Wichita State Laura Estersohn Scarsdale High School
Karen A. Estes St. Petersburg College Soheila Fardanesh Towson University
Diane Fisher Louisiana - Lafayette Brad Fulton Duke University
Steven Garren James Madison Univ. Mark Glickman Boston University
Brenda Gunderson Univ. of Michigan Aaron Gutknecht Tarrant County C.C.
Ian Harris Southern Methodist Univ. John Holliday North Georgia College
Pat Humphrey Georgia Southern Univ. Robert Huotari Glendale Comm.College
Debra Hydorn Univ. of Mary Washington Kelly Jackson Camden County College
Brian Jersky Macquarie University Matthew Jones Austin Peay St. Univ.
James Lang Valencia Comm. College Lisa Lendway University of Minnesota
Stephen Lee University of Idaho Christopher Malone Winona State
Catherine Matos Clayton State Billie May Clayton State
Monnie McGee Southern Methodist Univ. William Meisel Florida St.-Jacksonville
Matthew Mitchell Florida St.-Jacksonville Lori Murray Western University
Perpetua Lynne Nielsen Brigham Young University Julia Norton Cal. State - East Bay
Nabendu Pal Louisiana - Lafayette Alison Paradise Univ. of Puget Sound
Iwan Praton Franklin & Marshall College Guoqi Qian Univ. of Melbourne
Christian Rau Monash University Jerome Reiter Duke University
Thomas Roe South Dakota State Rachel Roe-Dale Skidmore College
Yuliya Romanyuk King’s University College Charles Scheim Hartwick College
Edith Seier East Tennessee State Therese Shelton Southwestern Univ.
Benjamin Sherwood University of Minnesota Sean Simpson Westchester Comm. College
Dalene Stangl Duke University Robert Stephenson Iowa State
Sheila Weaver Univ. of Vermont John Weber Georgia Perimeter College
Alison Weir Toronto-Mississauaga Ian Weir Univ. of the West of England
Rebecca Wong West Valley College Laura Ziegler University of Minnesota
A personalized, adaptive
learning experience.
WileyPLUS with ORION delivers easy-to-use analytics that help
educators and students see strengths and weaknesses to give learners
the best chance of succeeding in the course.

Identify which students Help students organize Measure outcomes

are struggling early in the their learning and get the to promote continuous
semester. practice they need. improvement.
Educators assess the real-time With ORION’s adaptive practice, With visual reports, it’s easy for
engagement and performance of students quickly understand both students and educators to
each student to inform teaching what they know and don’t know. gauge problem areas and act on
decisions. Students always know They can then decide to study or what’s most important.
what they need to work on. practice based on their proficiency.

www.ORION.wileyplus.com
 UNIT A

Data
“For Today’s Graduate, Just One Word: Statistics”
New York Times headline, August 5, 2009

UNIT OUTLINE
1 Collecting Data
2 Describing Data
Essential Synthesis

In this unit, we learn how to collect and describe

data. We explore how data collection influences
the types of conclusions that can be drawn, and
discover ways to summarize and visualize data.
C H A P T E R 1

Collecting
Data

“You can’t fix by analysis what you bungled by design.”

Richard Light, Judith Singer, and John Willett in By Design

Top left: ©Pete Saloutos/iStockphoto, Top right: ©Keith Szafranski/iStockphoto, Bottom right: Al Diaz/Miami Herald/MCT
via Getty Images

2
 CHAPTER OUTLINE
1 Collecting Data 2
1.1 The Structure of Data 4
1.2 Sampling from a Population 16
1.3 Experiments and Observational
Studies 29

Questions and Issues

Here are some of the questions and issues we will discuss in this chapter:
• Is there a “sprinting gene”?
• Does tagging penguins for identification purposes harm them?
• Do humans subconsciously give off chemical signals (pheromones)?
• What proportion of people using a public restroom wash their hands?
• If parents could turn back time, would they still choose to have children?
• Why do adolescent spiders engage in foreplay?
• How broadly do experiences of parents affect their future children?
• What percent of college professors consider themselves “above-average” teachers?
• Does giving lots of high fives to teammates help sports teams win?
• Which is better for peak performance: a short mild warm-up or a long intense warm-up?
• Does the color red increase the attractiveness of women to men?
• Are city dwellers more likely than country dwellers to have mood and anxiety disorders?
• Is there truth to the saying “beauty sleep”?
• What percent of young adults in the US move back in with their parents?
• Does turning up the music in a bar cause people to drink more beer?
• Is your nose getting bigger?
• Does watching cat videos improve mood?
• Does sleep deprivation hurt one’s ability to interpret facial expressions?
• Do artificial sweeteners cause weight gain?
• Does late night eating impair concentration?

3
4 CHAPTER 1 Collecting Data

1.1 THE STRUCTURE OF DATA

We are being inundated with data. It is estimated that the amount of new techni-
cal information is doubling every two years, and that over 7. 2 zettabytes (that’s
7. 2 × 1021 bytes) of unique new information will be generated this year.1 That is more
than was generated during the entire 5000-year period before you were born. An
incredible amount of data is readily available to us on the Internet and elsewhere.
The people who are able to analyze this information are going to have great jobs and
are going to be valuable in virtually every field. One of the wonderful things about
statistics is that it is relevant in so many areas. Whatever your focus and your future
career plans, it is likely that you will need statistical knowledge to make smart deci-
sions in your field and in everyday life. As we will see in this text, effective collection
and analysis of data can lead to very powerful results.
Statistics is the science of collecting, describing, and analyzing data. In this
chapter, we discuss effective ways to collect data. In Chapter 2, we discuss methods
to describe data. The rest of the chapters are devoted to ways of analyzing data to
make effective conclusions and to uncover hidden phenomena.

DATA 1.1 A Student Survey

For several years, a first-day survey has been administered to students in an
introductory statistics class at one university. Some of the data for a few of the
students are displayed in Table 1.1. A more complete table with data for 362
students and 17 variables can be found in the file StudentSurvey.2 ■

Cases and Variables

The subjects/objects that we obtain information about are called the cases or units
in a dataset. In the StudentSurvey dataset, the cases are the students who completed
the survey. Each row of the dataset corresponds to a different case.
A variable is any characteristic that is recorded for each case. Each column of
our dataset corresponds to a different variable. The data in Table 1.1 show eight vari-
ables (in addition to the ID column), each describing a different characteristic of the
students taking the survey.

Table 1.1 Partial results from a student survey

ID Gender Smoke Award Exercise TV GPA Pulse Birth
1 M No Olympic 10 1 3.13 54 4
2 F Yes Academy 4 7 2.5 66 2
3 M No Nobel 14 5 2.55 130 1
4 M No Nobel 3 1 3.1 78 1
5 F No Nobel 3 3 2.7 40 1
6 F No Nobel 5 4 3.2 80 2
7 F No Olympic 10 10 2.77 94 1
8 M No Olympic 13 8 3.3 77 1
9 F No Nobel 3 6 2.8 60 2
10 F No Nobel 12 1 3.7 94 8

1 http://www.emc.com/leadership/programs/digital-universe.htm. Accessed January 2015.

2 Most datasets used in this text, and descriptions, are available electronically. They can be found at
www.wiley.com/college/lock. See the Preface for more information. Descriptions of many datasets can
also be found in Appendix B.
 1.1 The Structure of Data 5

Cases and Variables

We obtain information about cases or units in a dataset, and generally
record the information for each case in a row of a data table.
A variable is any characteristic that is recorded for each case. The vari-
ables generally correspond to the columns in a data table.

In any dataset, it is important to understand exactly what each variable is mea-

suring and how the values are coded. For the data in Table 1.1, the first column
is ID, to provide an identifier for each of the individuals in the study. In addition,
we have:
Gender M for male and F for female
Smoke Does the student smoke: yes or no
Award Award the student prefers to win: Academy Award, Olympic gold
medal, or Nobel Prize
Exercise Number of hours spent exercising per week
TV Number of hours spent watching television per week
GPA Current grade point average on a 4-point scale
Pulse Pulse rate in number of beats per minute at the time of the survey
Birth Birth order: 1 for first/oldest, 2 for second born, etc.

Example 1.1
Explain what each variable tells us about the student with ID 1 in the first row of
Table 1.1.

Solution Student 1 is a male who does not smoke and who would prefer to win an Olympic gold
medal over an Academy Award or a Nobel Prize. He says that he exercises 10 hours
a week, watches television one hour a week, and that his grade point average is 3.13.
His pulse rate was 54 beats per minute at the time of the survey, and he is the fourth
oldest child in his family.

Categorical and Quantitative Variables

In determining the most appropriate ways to summarize or analyze data, it is useful
to classify variables as either categorical or quantitative.

Categorical and Quantitative Variables

A categorical variable divides the cases into groups, placing each case
into exactly one of two or more categories.
A quantitative variable measures or records a numerical quantity for
each case. Numerical operations like adding and averaging make sense
for quantitative variables.

We may use numbers to code the categories of a categorical variable, but this
does not make the variable quantitative unless the numbers have a quantitative
meaning. For example, “gender” is categorical even if we choose to record the results
as 1 for male and 2 for female, since we are more likely to be interested in how many
are in each category rather than an average numerical value. In other situations, we
might choose to convert a quantitative variable into categorical groups. For example,
Discovering Diverse Content Through
Random Scribd Documents
probably Darnley, after what he had heard, objected to go thither,
and he was therefore taken to a suburb called Kirk-of-Field, an airy
situation, where the Duke of Chatelherault had a palace. The
attendants proceeded to the duke's house, but the queen told them
the lodging prepared for the king was not there, but in a house just
by, and also by the city wall, near the ruinous monastery of the
Black Friars.
The place appeared a singular one for a king, for it was confined in
size and not over well furnished. What was more suspicious was,
that it was the property of Robert Balfour, the brother of that Sir
James Balfour who was of the league sworn to destroy Darnley, and
the same who drew up the document. He was a dependent of
Bothwell's, who held the bond, and who met the king and queen a
little way before they reached the capital, and accompanied them to
this place. These circumstances taken along with those which
followed, show that the whole had reference to the catastrophe, and
the great question which has divided historians to this hour is, how
far the queen was a party to the proceedings. For the present, so far
as Mary was concerned, all appeared fair and sincere. She seemed
to have resumed all her interest in her husband. She was constantly
with him, and attended to everything necessary for his comfort and
restoration. She passed the greater part of the day in his chamber,
and slept in the room under his. Though Darnley was apprehensive
of danger from the circumstance that his mortal enemies were now
in power and about the Court, the constant presence and affection
of the queen were a guarantee for his safety, and appeared to give
him confidence.
But the conspirators were watching assiduously for an opportunity to
destroy him. Morton, Maitland, and Balfour, had now gathered into
the plot the Earls of Huntly, Argyll, and Caithness, Archibald Douglas,
the Archbishop of St. Andrews, and many other lords and leading
men of the bench and bar. Murray alone seemed to stand aloof;
though, from the evidence existing, there can be no question that he
was privy to the whole affair.
 HOLYROOD PALACE, EDINBURGH. (From a photograph by J. Valentine,
Dundee.)
Darnley during this time received a warning of his danger from the
Earl of Orkney, who, finding opportunity, told him that if he did not
get quickly out of that place it would cost him his life. Darnley told
this to the queen, who questioned the earl, and he then denied
having said so. This was precisely what Morton stated would take
place, when on his death-bed, confessing a knowledge of the plot,
he was asked why he had not revealed it. He replied, that there was
nobody to tell it to; that it was no use telling it to the queen, for he
was assured that she was in the plot; and that if he had told
Darnley, he was such a fool that he would immediately tell it to the
queen. The circumstance, however, startled the conspirators, and
determined them to expedite the terrible business. The desired
opportunity arrived. The queen agreed to be present on the evening
of the 9th of February at the marriage of Sebastiani and Margaret
Carwood, two of her servants, which was to be celebrated with a
masque. The queen remained with the king the greater part of the
day, which was passed in the most apparent cordiality, and Mary
declared her intention of remaining all night at Kirk-of-Field.
However, she suddenly recollected her promise to attend the
marriage, and taking leave of Darnley, kissed him, and taking a ring
from her finger placed it on his own. It was now that the hired
assassins executed their appointed task. How Darnley and his page
were murdered is yet a disputed point. The house was blown up
with gunpowder, but the bodies of the king and his page were found
in the orchard adjoining the garden wall, the king only in his night-
dress, his pelisse lying by his side, and no marks of fire upon the
body.
However doubtful may be other matters, there is no question of the
presence of Bothwell at the tragedy. He attended the queen from
Kirk-of-Field to Holyrood, but about midnight quitted the palace,
changed his rich dress, and in disguise joined the murderers, who
were waiting for him. About two o'clock two of them entered the
house and lit a slow-burning match, the other end of which was
placed amongst the powder. They remained some time expecting
the catastrophe, till Bothwell grew so impatient that he was with
difficulty withheld from entering the house to ascertain whether the
match still burnt. This was done by one of the fellows, who looked
through a window and perceived the match alight. The explosion
soon after took place, and with a concussion which seemed to shake
the whole city. Bothwell hurried away and got to bed before a
servant rushed in with the news. He then started up with well-acted
astonishment, and rushed forth shouting, "Treason! treason!" Huntly,
and some others of the conspirators then proceeded to the queen's
chamber, and informed her of what had taken place. She seemed
petrified with horror, gave herself up to the most violent expression
of grief, and, shutting herself up in her chamber, continued as if
paralysed by so diabolical a tragedy.
The demands of the outraged people for inquiry were loud. The city
was placarded with the names of Bothwell, James Balfour, David
Chambers, black John Spens, Signors Francisco, Joseph Rizzio—the
brother of David—Bartiani, and John de Bourdeaux, as the leading
murderers. The Earl of Lennox, the father of Darnley, called on the
queen to bring them to trial; but he demanded in vain. Bothwell, the
man whom the whole public denounced, continued the first in favour
with the queen. Everything demonstrated the necessity of the queen
exerting herself to discover the murderers of her husband. Sir Harry
Killigrew arrived from Elizabeth, bearing a message of condolence,
but at the same time urging the absolute necessity of the trial of
Bothwell. Killigrew found the capital in a most excited state,
clamorous for inquiry, and loud in its censures of the queen. At the
same time a letter arrived from Bishop Beaton, her ambassador in
France, stating in plainest terms that she was publicly accused there
of being herself the chief mover in the whole dark business, and
telling her that if she did not exert herself to take a rigorous
vengeance she had better have lost life and all. Mary promised
Killigrew that Bothwell should be brought to strict trial; but as soon
as he was gone means were taken to secure Bothwell more
completely from any effectual inquiry. The Earl of Mar was induced
to give up the possession of the castle of Edinburgh to Bothwell,
Morton had his lands and his castle of Tantallon restored to him, and
in return supported Bothwell with all his influence. The castle of
Blackness, the Inch, and the superiority of Leith, were conferred on
Bothwell; and Murray—who neither liked to play the second to the
aspiring favourite, nor to run any risk of exposure in those inquiries
which must sooner or later ensue—requested permission to visit
France.
Mary could not possibly be happy in such circumstances. Whatever
might be the state of her conscience, her character was fearfully
implicated, and on all sides came calls for inquiry, which she did not
seem to have the power or the will to make. The climax to her
trouble was put by the queen-mother of France and her uncle, the
cardinal, sending her the most cutting message of reproach; calling
on her without delay to avenge the death of the king, and to clear
her own reputation, or regard them as no longer her friends, but the
proclaimers of her utter disgrace. There was no possibility of
delaying inquiry any longer, but every means was adopted to make it
a mockery. Lennox was forbidden to appear with more than six
followers, and his efforts to obtain a postponement were fruitless. In
his absence Bothwell was unanimously acquitted.
Rumours now arose that Bothwell was about to divorce his wife, the
sister of Huntly—to whom he had been married only six months—
and to marry the queen; and in the face of these reports Mary
conferred on him the castle and lordship of Dunbar, with extension
of his powers as Lord High Admiral. As tidings of the queen's
intended marriage grew, Murray, her brother, stole away out of
contact with danger or responsibility and retired to France. But,
nevertheless, she did not lack warning. Her ambassador at the
French Court entreated her, in the most serious manner, to punish
her husband's murderers, and not allow the world to use such
freedom with her character as it did. She had equally strong letters
from her friends in England, which Melville showed to her, and was
advised by Maitland of Lethington to get away from Court for fear of
Bothwell. Bothwell, however, soon put the matter beyond doubt. He
invited the principal nobility to a tavern, kept by one Ainslie, and
there he drew out of his pocket a bond expressing his innocence of
the murder of Darnley, as established by the bench and the
legislature, and his intention to marry the queen, and containing, it
is said, her written warrant empowering him to propose the matter
to the nobility. The company was composed partly of his friends and
accomplices. The rest were taken with confusion, but they had all
been deeply drinking, and they found the house surrounded by 200
of Bothwell's hackbutters. Under constraint, eight bishops, nine
earls, and seven lords, subscribed the paper.
But the daring ambition of the man now roused even his old
accomplices to conspire against him, for the safety of the young
prince and Government. Morton, Argyll, Athole, and Kirkaldy of
Grange, were at the head of this plot; and they wrote to Bedford the
day after the supper at Ainslie's, saying it was high time that his
dangerous career was checked, and engaging by Elizabeth's aid to
avenge the murder of the king. Kirkaldy, who was the scribe, added
that the queen had been heard to say that "she cared not to lose
France, England, and her own country for him, and would go with
him to the world's end in a white petticoat, before she would leave
him."
An anonymous letter, but undoubtedly from some of this party, soon
followed, declaring that the queen had concerted with Bothwell the
seizure of her person. The correctness of this information was
immediately proved. On Monday, the 21st of April, the very day
foretold, Mary rode to Stirling to visit her son, where the Earl of Mar,
entertaining strong suspicions of her intentions, refused to allow her
access to him with more than two attendants, to her great
indignation. On her return, as had been foreseen in the letter
quoted, Bothwell met her at the head of 1,000 horse, at Almond
Bridge, six miles from Edinburgh; and, according to Melville, who
was in the queen's train, taking the queen's bridle, he boasted that
"he would marry the queen, who could or who would not; yea,
whether she would herself or not." He says that Captain Blackadder,
one of Bothwell's men, told him that it was with the queen's own
consent. Whether this were so or not, has been argued eagerly on
both sides, but it is probable from what we have seen, that Mary
really was a consenting party. The royal retinue was suffered to
continue its journey, with the exception of Melville, Maitland, and
Huntly, who were conducted along with the queen to the castle of
Dunbar, the recent gift of Mary to Bothwell. The queen seems to
have made no loud outcries against her apparently forcible
abduction, and the country was so convinced of the sham nature of
the affair, that there was no attempt to rescue her.
The divorce of Bothwell from his wife was now hastened, and after
detaining the queen five days at the castle of Dunbar, he conducted
her to Edinburgh, and led her to the castle, where she was received
with a salute of artillery, Bothwell holding her train as she
dismounted. The ministers of the Church were ordered to proclaim
the banns of marriage between the queen and Bothwell, but they
declined; and Craig, the colleague of Knox, who was absent,
declared that he had no command from her Majesty, who was held
in disgraceful constraint by Bothwell. This brought to him the Justice
Clerk with a letter under the queen's own hand, stating that the
assertions he had made were false and commanding him to obey.
Craig still refused till he had seen the queen herself; and, before the
Privy Council, charged Bothwell with murder, rape, and adultery. No
punishment followed so daring a charge, and the preacher having
done his duty, obeyed the Royal mandate and published the banns,
at the same time exclaiming, "I take heaven and earth to witness
that I abhor and detest this marriage, as odious and slanderous to
the world; and I would exhort the faithful to pray earnestly that a
union against all reason and good conscience may yet be overruled
by God to the conform of this unhappy realm."
Nothing moved by these public expressions of censure and disgust,
the queen appeared, on the 12th of May, at the high court of
Edinburgh, and informed the Chancellor, the judges, and the nobility
that, though she was at first incensed against the Earl of Bothwell
for the forcible detention of her person, she had now quite forgiven
him for his subsequent good conduct. That day she created Bothwell
Duke of Orkney and Shetland, and with her own hand placed the
coronet on his head. On the 15th they were married, at four o'clock
in the morning, in the Presence Chamber of Holyrood. The ceremony
was performed by the Bishop of Orkney, according to the Protestant
form, Craig being present; and afterwards privately, according to the
Romish rite.
Very soon circumstances hastened the inevitable insurrection in
Scotland. Mary had summoned her nobles to accompany her on an
expedition to Liddesdale, but many disobeyed the order. Murray had
now arrived in England, and was using all his influence with
Elizabeth to make a movement for the expulsion of Bothwell from his
usurpation; and even Maitland, who to the last had remained at
Court, wearing the air of a staunch supporter of the queen, slipped
away and joined the opposition. These were ominous circumstances,
and suddenly, while the queen and Bothwell were at Borthwick
Castle, about ten miles from Edinburgh, the conspirators made a
rapid night march, and morning saw the castle surrounded by nearly
1,000 Borderers, under the command of Hume and other Border
chiefs, with whom were Morton, Mar, Lindsay, Kirkaldy, and others of
the nobles.
The confederates deemed the queen and Bothwell now safe in their
hands, but they were deceived. Bothwell escaped through a postern
to Haddington, whence he reached Dunbar; and the queen also
eluding them disguised as a man, rode booted and spurred after
him. The confederates, disappointed of their grand prize, marched
on the capital, forced the gates, and entered, proclaiming that they
came to revenge the death of the king, and to rescue the queen
from the murderer. There the Earl of Athole and Maitland joined
them, and a banner was displayed on which was painted the body of
the murdered king lying under a tree, and the young prince kneeling
beside it, exclaiming, "Judge and avenge my cause, O Lord!" The
people flocked to this exciting standard, and the leaders speedily
commanded a strong force.
Mary and Bothwell, meanwhile, summoned the nobles and people
around Dunbar, and the Lords Seton, Yester, and Borthwick,
appeared in arms, with a body of 2,000 men. Impatient to quell the
confederates at once, they marched to Seton, where Mary issued a
proclamation, declaring that all the pretences of the confederates
were false; that her husband, the duke, was no murderer but had,
as they knew, been fully acquitted; she was under no restraint but
freely married to Bothwell, by consent and approbation of these very
nobles; nor was her son in any danger, unless it were from them, for
he was in their hands. Mary advanced and entrenched herself on
Carberry Hill, in the old works which the English had thrown up
before the battle of Pinkie.
The confederates marched out of Edinburgh and confronted the
Royal army, eager for the battle. De Croc, the French ambassador,
now attempted to mediate between the two parties, and carried a
message to Morton and Glencairn, offering the queen's pardon, on
condition that they all returned to their allegiance; but Glencairn
replied that they were not come there to seek pardon, but rather to
give it those who had sinned; and Morton added, "We are not in
arms against our queen, but the Duke of Orkney, the murderer of
her husband, and are prepared to yield her our obedience, on
condition that she dismisses him from her presence and delivers him
up to us."
It was clear that these terms must be complied with or they must
fight; and it was soon perceived that the soldiers of the queen's
army began to show symptoms of disaffection. Bothwell, therefore,
rode forward, and defied any one who dared to accuse him of the
king's murder. His challenge was accepted by James Murray of
Tullibardine, the baron who was said to have charged Bothwell with
the murder, in a placard affixed to the Tolbooth gate. Bothwell
declined to enter the lists with Murray, on the plea that he was not
his peer, whereupon Lord Lindsay of the Byres offered himself and
was accepted, but at the moment of action the queen forbade the
fight. By this time the defection in the queen's army became so
conspicuous that Mary rode among her men to encourage them,
assuring them of victory; but her voice had lost its charm, and the
soldiers refused to fight in defence of the alleged murderer of the
king. Whilst this was passing, it was observed that Kirkaldy of
Grange was wheeling his forces round the hill to turn their flank, and
the panic becoming general, the queen and Bothwell found
themselves abandoned by all but about sixty gentlemen and the
band of hackbutters.
To prevent Kirkaldy from advancing his troops so as to cut off their
retreat towards Dunbar, the queen demanded a parley, which was
granted. Kirkaldy went forward and assured the queen that they
were all prepared to obey her authority, provided she put away the
man who stood by her side stained with the blood of the king. The
queen promised to acquiesce, and she held a moment's conversation
with Bothwell, gave him her hand, and followed Kirkaldy; Bothwell
turning his horse's head and riding off to Dunbar. This brutal and
unheroic man afterwards became a rover in the North Sea, and died
in prison in Denmark in 1578. Mary did not follow Kirkaldy of Grange
far till she saw Bothwell out of danger, when she reminded him that
she relied on the assurances of the lords, on which Grange, kissing
her Majesty's hand, took her horse by the rein, and led her towards
the camp. On reaching the lines, the confederate lords received the
queen on their knees, and vowed to obey and defend her as loyally
as ever the nobility of the realm did her ancestors; but they very
soon showed the hollowness of these professions, and the common
soldiers assailed her ears with the most opprobrious language.
MARY SIGNING THE DEED OF ABDICATION IN LOCHLEVEN CASTLE. (See
p. 273.)
The unfortunate but guilty queen at every step learned more plainly
her real situation, and the faith which she was to put in these
nobles. She was conducted like a captive into Edinburgh, the soldiers
constantly waving before her eyes the banner on which was painted
the murdered king. The mob was crowding round in thousands,
shouting and yelling in execration, and the women heaped on her all
the coarsest epithets of adulteress and murderess. On arriving in the
city, instead of conducting her to her own palace, the patriot nobles
shut her up as a solitary prisoner in the house of the Provost, not
even allowing her to have her women to attend her; and in the
morning she was greeted by a repetition of the scenes of the
previous day—the same hideous banner was hung out opposite her
window, and the yells of the mob were furious. Driven to actual
delirium by this treatment, she rent the clothes from her person, and
almost naked attempted to speak to the raving populace. This
shocking spectacle roused the sympathy of the better class of
citizens, and they determined on a rescue of the insulted queen,
when the watchful nobles removed her to Holyrood. There they held
a Council, and concluded to send her prisoner to Lochleven Castle,
at Kinross, under the stern guardianship of Lindsay and the savage
Ruthven. While there she was persuaded (July 23, 1567), to resign
in favour of her baby, and Murray, who was summoned home,
became Regent.
The queen, seeing herself destined by Murray to perpetual captivity,
resolved to exert every faculty to effect her escape. After several
unsuccessful efforts, she succeeded in May, 1568, through the
ingenuity of a page called Little Douglas. The news of Mary's escape
flew like lightning in every direction; the people, forgetting her
crimes in her beauty and her sufferings, gathered to her standard;
and she who a few days before was a deserted captive, now beheld
herself at the head of 6,000 men. Many of the nobility, and some of
those who had sinned deeply against her, now flocked around her.
Murray, on the first news of their movement, marched out of
Glasgow, and took possession of a small hamlet called Langside,
surrounded by gardens and orchards, which occupied each side of a
steep narrow lane directly in the way of the queen's army. Instead of
avoiding this position, and making their way to Dumbarton by
another course, Lord Claud Hamilton charged the troops there
posted with his cavalry, 2,000 strong, in perfect confidence of driving
them thence; but the hackbutters, who had screened themselves
behind walls and trees, poured in on the cavalry a deadly fire which
threw them into confusion. Lord Claud cheered them on to renew
the charge, and with great valour they pushed forward and drove
the enemy before them. But, pursuing them up the steep hill, they
suddenly found themselves face to face with Murray's advance,
composed of the finest body of Border pikemen, and commanded by
Morton, Home, Ker of Cessford, and the barons of the Merse, all
fighting on foot at the heads of their divisions.
The battle was unequal, for the troops of Murray were fresh, while
those of the queen were out of breath with their up-hill fight.
Notwithstanding, the main body of the queen's forces coming up,
there was a severe struggle, and the right of the Regent's army
began to give way. Grange, who was watching the field from above,
quickly brought up reinforcements from the main body, and made so
furious a charge on the queen's left as to scatter it into fragments;
and Murray, who had waited with the reserve for the decisive
moment, rushed forward with so much impetuosity, that the main
battle of the queen was broken, and the flight became general (May
13, 1568). Mary, who had surveyed the conflict from the castle of
Crookston, on a neighbouring height, about four miles from Paisley,
beholding the rout of her army, turned her horse and fled, and never
drew bit till she reached the abbey of Dundrennan, in Galloway. She
then set sail in a boat, and landed at Workington, in Cumberland.
Here she wrote to Elizabeth, expressing her strong confidence that
Elizabeth would receive her and protect her against her rebellious
subjects. She concluded her letter with these words:—"It is my
earnest request that your majesty will send for me as soon as
possible, for my condition is pitiable, not to say for a queen, but
even for a simple gentlewoman. I have no other dress than that in
which I escaped from the field. My first day's ride was sixty miles
across the country, and I have not since dared to travel except by
night."
 CHAPTER XIII.
REIGN OF ELIZABETH (continued).
Elizabeth Determines to Imprison Mary—The Conference at York
—It is Moved to London—The Casket Letters—Mary is sent
Southwards—Remonstrances of the European Sovereigns—
Affairs in the Netherlands—Alva is sent Thither—Elizabeth Aids
the Insurgents—Proposed Marriage between Mary and Norfolk—
The Plot is Discovered—Rising in the North—Its Suppression—
Death of the Regent Murray—Its Consequences in Scotland—
Religious Persecutions—Execution of Norfolk—Massacre of St.
Bartholomew—Siege of Edinburgh Castle—War in France—
Splendid Defence of La Rochelle—Death of Charles IX.—
Religious War in the Netherlands—Rule of Don John—The Anjou
Marriage—Deaths of Anjou and of William the Silent.

Elizabeth, on reading Mary's letter, felt that she was now entirely in
her power; and all her art was exerted to draw her over into the
heart of the kingdom, so that she could neither retreat nor escape to
France. She took every measure to avoid alarming her. She
dispatched letters to the sheriff of Cumberland, commanding him to
treat the Scottish queen with all honour, but to keep the strictest
watch over her, and to prevent any possibility of escape. Nothing
was farther from Elizabeth's intentions than to enter on friendly
terms with the Queen of Scots. She had never forgiven her the
offence of insisting on her claims of succession to the crown of
England. She had a personal jealousy of the fame of her superior
beauty; and, with such a counsellor as Cecil, it was certain that a
selfish and suspicious policy would prevail. In those days, honour
and high principle were of little account: expediency was the only
statesmanship. It was, therefore, easy for Elizabeth and her
ministers to plead the accusations against Mary—the imprudence of
her conduct, and her still unabated infatuation for the murderer
Bothwell. Mary was a firm Papist, Murray was a high professing
Protestant, and to favour him and his party was to be the champion
of Protestantism. To let Mary escape to France was not to be
thought of, for of all things it was essential to keep asunder the
union of French and Scottish interests. It was clear, therefore, that
Mary must be detained in England, at least for the present; after she
had been sufficiently discredited she might be allowed to return to
Scotland.
Elizabeth, after some consideration, determined that Mary's conduct
should be submitted to a formal inquiry. When Mary learned that a
message was actually on its way to call Murray and his accomplices
to England, to prefer their charges against her, she protested
vehemently against such a proceeding and declared that she would
rather die than submit to such indignity. Murray received his
summons with his usual artfulness. He was required by Elizabeth to
prefer his charges against the Queen of Scots, but in the meantime
to refrain from hostilities. He obeyed the requisition; placed his
soldiers in quarters; but demanded to know what was to be the
result of the inquiry. If the queen was declared innocent, what
guarantee was he to receive for his own security? If guilty, what
then? He said he had already sent copies of his proofs by his servant
Wood; and if they were found to be faithful to the originals, would
they be deemed conclusive?
Thus the cunning Regent was seeking to ascertain whether he had
already evidence deemed by the selected judge sufficiently
damnatory, or whether he should fabricate more. Nothing could be
cleverer than Elizabeth's dealings in reply. She assured Murray, and
also Mary, that she did not set herself up as a judge of the Scottish
queen, far less as an accuser; that her sole object was to settle the
disputes between Mary and her subjects, and to reinstate her at
once in their good opinion and in her full power; but in secret she
assured Murray, as we learn from Goodall and Anderson, that,
whatever were her assurances to Mary, she really meant to try her
and, if she could find her guilty, to retain her in perpetual
imprisonment.
After considerable delay Murray appointed his commissioners—the
Earl of Morton, the Bishop of Orkney, Lord Lindsay, and the
commendator of Dunfermline, who were to be assisted by Maitland,
Buchanan, and Macgill. Elizabeth appointed, as hers, the Duke of
Norfolk, the Earl of Sussex, and Sir Ralph Sadler. Maitland, at this
juncture, while engaged on the part of Murray, sent Mary copies of
the letters which Murray intended to present against her, and
begged her to say what he could do to assist her. She replied, that
he should use his influence to abate the rigour of Murray, influence
the Duke of Norfolk as much as possible in her favour, and rely on
the Bishop of Ross as her sincere friend. She then named, on her
part, the said Bishop of Ross, the Lords Herries, Boyd, Livingston,
the abbot of Kilwinning, Sir John Gordon of Lochinvar, and Sir John
Cockburn of Stirling.
The Commissioners, Murray attending in person with his own, met at
York, on the 4th of October. Some obstruction of business was
occasioned by the Duke of Norfolk insisting that, as the Regent had
consented to plead before Elizabeth, he must first do homage to the
English crown. This was refused, and was therefore waived; but the
step discovered the desire of Elizabeth to seize on this occasion to
achieve what none of her ancestors could accomplish—the
acknowledgment of the feudal vassalage of Scotland. The next
betrayed the duplicity of her promises to the two parties. Mary's
commissioners claimed that the engagement of Elizabeth to place
Mary on the throne of Scotland in any case, should appear in their
powers; and Murray's, on the contrary, pleaded the queen's promise
that if Mary were pronounced guilty she should remain a prisoner.
These contradictory powers were granted, and Mary's commissioners
opened the conference with their charges that Murray and his
associates had rebelliously risen in arms against their lawful
sovereign, had deposed and imprisoned her, and compelled her to
seek justice from her royal kinswoman.
Murray was now called upon to reply, but, instead of openly and
boldly stating his reasons for the course he had pursued, and
producing and substantiating, as Elizabeth hoped and expected, the
charges of her participating in her husband's murder, which he had
so long and loudly vaunted, he solicited a private interview with the
English commissioners, before whom he stated his defence. In this
defence, to the unmitigated astonishment and disappointment of
Elizabeth and her ministers, he made no charge against Mary of
participation in the murder of Darnley; but reiterated the charges
against her of marrying Bothwell, and the danger thereby incurred
by the prince. Nor was this all. Mary's commissioners did not so far
excuse him; they accused him boldly of complicity with Bothwell and
the murderers, and of being on the most friendly terms with
Bothwell whilst the marriage with the queen was in progress.
Murray, with all his art, was confounded and silenced.
 LORD BURLEIGH. (From the Portrait by Mark Gerard.)
It is said that the arguments and disclosures of the Duke of Norfolk
had, at this moment, greatly staggered him. Norfolk had conceived
the design of marrying the Queen of Scots; and, in order to deter
Murray from pressing the worst charges, intimated to him privately
that he was pursuing a dangerous course, for that Elizabeth, it was
well known, never meant to decide against Mary. Murray was
rendered sufficiently cautious to abstain from the public accusation
of the queen; but he laid privately before Norfolk, Suffolk, and
Sadler, the alleged contents of the celebrated silver casket,
consisting of love-letters and sonnets, addressed by Mary to
Bothwell, and a contract of marriage in the handwriting of Huntley.
Copies of these were transmitted to Elizabeth.
Being now in possession of Murray's charges, Elizabeth determined
to compel him to make them openly, her grand object being to
establish an accusation of Mary sufficiently atrocious to warrant her
in keeping her a perpetual prisoner. For this reason she summoned
the Commission to Westminster, alleging that York was too distant
for a quick transaction of business. When Murray appeared before
Elizabeth, he found, to his dismay, that she was perfectly informed
of his private interviews with Norfolk, and she insisted that he should
make a public accusation of Mary, threatening in case of refusal, to
transfer her interests to the Duke of Chatelherault, and to favour the
latter's claim to the Regency. But Murray was not inclined to make
this accusation, unless assured that Elizabeth would pronounce
sentence on Mary, which Norfolk had led him to doubt. Mary, on the
other hand, received information from Hepburn of Riccarton, a
confederate of Bothwell's, that Elizabeth was of all things really
anxious to compel Murray to this accusation. To prevent this, she
ordered her commissioners, if any such attempt was made at
accusing her, to demand her immediate admission to the presence of
Elizabeth, and, if that were refused, to break up the conference.

FARTHING OF ELIZABETH.
 HALFPENNY OF ELIZABETH.

PENNY OF ELIZABETH.

TWOPENCE OF ELIZABETH.
These conferences were opened in the Painted Chamber at
Westminster, the commissioners of Mary refusing to meet in any
judicial court; and, acting on the instruction of their queen, they at
once demanded the admission of Mary to Elizabeth's presence, on
the reasonable plea that that privilege had been granted to Murray.
This was again declined, on the old ground that Mary must first clear
herself; and on the retirement of the commissioners it was
demanded of Murray to put in his accusation in writing, Bacon, the
Lord Keeper, assuring him that, if Mary were found guilty, she should
be either delivered to him, or kept safe in England. To this Murray
replied, that he had prepared his written accusation, but that before
he would give it in he must have an assurance, under the hand of
Elizabeth, that she would pronounce judgment. On this Cecil said,
"Where is your accusation?" and Murray's secretary, Wood, taking it
imprudently from his bosom, replied, "Here it is, and here it must
remain till we have the queen's written assurance." But while he
spoke the paper was snatched from his hand by Bothwell, Bishop of
Orkney, who rushed over the table, pursued by Wood, and handed it
to the English commissioners. It was received amid roars of laughter,
and Cecil, who had now gained his great object, became radiant
with exultation. The confusion of the scene was extraordinary; Lord
William Howard, a blunt sea-officer, shouting aloud in his glee, and
Maitland whispering to Murray that he had ruined his cause for ever.

HALF-CROWN OF ELIZABETH.
 HALF-SOVEREIGN OF ELIZABETH.
But as there was now no going back, the paper was read, and found
to contain the broadest and most direct charge against Mary, not
only of being an accomplice in the murder of her husband, but even
of inciting Bothwell to it, and then marrying the murderer. This was
totally different from Murray's former declaration to the English
ministers; but it was now backed by a similar one from Lord Lennox,
demanding vengeance for the death of his son. No sooner did the
commissioners of the Queen of Scots hear this than they most
indignantly condemned the conduct of the English commissioners,
declared themselves prepared to prove that Murray and his friends
themselves were the actual authors, and some of them the
perpetrators of the murder. They demanded instant admittance to
the presence of Elizabeth; complained loudly of the breach of the
contract that nothing should be received in prejudice of their queen's
honour, in her absence; demanded the instant arrest of the authors
of the foul charge, and, on that being refused, broke off the
conference.
Here, indeed, the conference really ceased. Elizabeth, despite the
withdrawal of Mary's commissioners, summoned Murray to produce
his proofs; and the pretended love-letters and sonnets, of which
Elizabeth had already had copies, were spread before her
commissioners. The originals of these celebrated documents have
long disappeared, but the copies which remained have evidently
been tampered with, and have been pronounced most suspicious by
all who have examined them. Mary, on hearing this, demanded by
her commissioners the right to see these papers, declaring that she
would prove the exhibitors of them the real murderers, and expose
them as liars and traitors. This most reasonable request was
refused, and Elizabeth, having now all she wanted, delivered by her
Council this extraordinary decision on the 10th of January, 1569:—
That neither against the Queen of Scotland, nor against Murray, had
any convincing charge of crime, on the one hand, or treason on the
other, been shown; and that the Queen of England saw no cause to
conceive an ill opinion of her good sister of Scotland. It was
conceded that Mary should have copies of the papers in the casket,
on condition that she should reply to them, which she consented to
do, provided that Murray and her accusers were detained to abide
the consequence. This, however, did not suit the object of Elizabeth.
Murray and his associates were permitted to retire to Scotland, but it
was declared that, on many grounds, the Queen of Scots must
remain in England.
Meanwhile Elizabeth had removed Mary farther from the Scottish
border. She evidently doubted the security of the Queen of Scots so
near her Scottish subjects, and in a part of the country so extremely
Popish. Mary, on her part, was quite sensible of the views of
Elizabeth, and protested against going farther into the interior of
England. She did not hesitate to express her opinion that it was the
intention of Cecil to make away with her. But resistance on her part
was now hopeless. She was in the hands of a powerful and
unscrupulous woman, who every day felt more and more the difficult
position in which she had placed herself by thus making herself the
gaoler, against all right and honour, of an independent queen. She
sent express orders to Scrope and Knollys to permit no person to
approach the Queen of Scots who was likely to dissuade her from
her removal, and furnished them with a list of such well-affected
gentlemen as should attend her on her way through the different
counties. On the 26th of January, 1569, in wintry weather, Mary and
her attendants were obliged to quit Bolton Castle and, mounted on
miserable horses, to take their way southward. On the 2nd of
February they reached Ripon, and thence proceeded to Tutbury
Castle, a ruinous house belonging to the Earl of Shrewsbury, who
was now her keeper. The castle lay high above the valley of the
Dove, and was a wretched abode for a crowned head; and Mary was
watched and guarded with the utmost anxiety lest some of her
partisans should find means of communicating with her.
Not only were the Roman Catholic subjects of Elizabeth greatly
discontented with the detention of the Scottish queen—whom
Elizabeth had again removed to Wingfield Manor, in Derbyshire, in
April—but the sovereigns of the Continent also remonstrated with
Elizabeth on the injustice of treating a queen—as much a sovereign
as herself—as a captive and a criminal. Elizabeth, however, feeling
that she had now little to fear from them, replied that they were
labouring under a mistake; and that so far from treating the Queen
of Scots as a captive, she was giving her refuge and protection
against her rebellious subjects, who sought her life, and laid the
most grievous crimes to her charge.
The Duke of Norfolk, and the Earls of Arundel and Pembroke, as
friends of Mary, were extremely hostile to Cecil, regarding him as the
real mover and influencer of the queen against her. They succeeded
in securing the favour of Leicester to their design against him, who
ventured to lay their complaints, as the complaints of the country,
before Elizabeth, representing the clamour against the measures of
Cecil, and the belief that his policy was prejudicial to her reputation
and injurious to the interests of the realm, as universal. Elizabeth
defended her favourite minister with zeal; but the politic Cecil was
struck with a degree of alarm at their combination, which might
have eventually proved formidable, had they not stumbled on the
scheme of marrying Norfolk to Mary. The results of that scheme,
however, we must postpone till we have noticed some anterior
affairs.
We have seen how Elizabeth assisted the Huguenots in France. In
the Netherlands she was not less active. The commercial natives of
these countries had not only grown rich under the mild sway of the
Dukes of Burgundy, but they had exercised privileges which did not
accord with the bigoted and despotic notions of Philip II. Both
Protestants and Romanists murmured at his harsh and arbitrary
government. The latter complained that opulent abbeys in the
possession of natives were dissolved to form bishoprics for
Spaniards. The Protestants groaned under a stern persecution, and
every class of subjects beheld with horror and disgust the Spanish
Inquisition introduced. Protestants and Papists alike united to put
down this odious institution. The league, from including both
religious parties, was named the Compromise, and the Prince of
Orange and the Counts Egmont and Horn took the lead in it. The
Duchess of Parma, who governed the country, gave way before the
storm, and abolished the Inquisition, which had the effect of
separating the Roman Catholics from the Protestants. The latter
deemed it necessary, when thus deserted, to conduct their worship
with arms in their hands; and the duchess, alarmed at this hostile
attitude, issued a proclamation forbidding all such assemblies. In
Antwerp and other cities where the English and German Protestants
greatly abounded, no notice was taken of her proclamation; but it
was resolved no longer to remain on the defensive, but to carry the
war into the enemy's quarters.
The people, assembling in April, 1567, in vast crowds, proceeded to
demolish the images and altars in the churches, and even to pull the
churches down. On the feast of the Assumption, as the priests were
carrying an image of the Virgin through the streets, the crowd made
terrible menaces against it, and the procession was glad to hasten
back to the church from which it had set out. But a few days
afterwards the people rushed to the cathedral, which was filled with
rich shrines, treasures, and works of art, and set systematically to
work to smash and destroy every image that it contained. Amongst
these was a crucifix, placed aloft, the work of a famous artist, which
they dragged down with ropes, and knocked in pieces. The pictures,
many of them very valuable, they cut to shreds, and the altars and
shrines they tore down and utterly destroyed. From the desecrated
cathedral they proceeded to the other churches, where they
perpetrated the same ruin, and thence to the convents and
monasteries, driving the monks and nuns destitute into the streets.
The example of Antwerp was zealously followed in every other
province in the Netherlands, except in the Walloons. The iconoclasts
were at length interrupted in their work by the Duchess of Parma,
who fell upon them near Antwerp, and defeated them with great
slaughter. Philip dispatched the notorious Duke of Alva to take
vengeance on the turbulent heretics, and overran the Netherlands
with his butcheries. The Prince of Orange retired to his province of
Nassau, but Horn and Egmont were seized and beheaded on the 5th
of June, 1568.
The Huguenots in France, alarmed at this success of Alva, and
believing that he was appointed to carry into execution the secret
league of Bayonne, for compelling the Protestants of France, Spain,
and Flanders, to give up their religion or their lives, rose under
Condé, and attempted to seize the king, Charles IX., at Monceaux.
Charles, however, was rescued by his Swiss guards, who,
surrounding him in a body, beat off the Huguenots, and conducted
him in safety to Paris. There, he was, nevertheless, a prisoner, till he
was released by the defeat of the Huguenots at the battle of St.
Denis, where his principal general, the constable Montmorency, was
killed. Condé had fallen in the battle of Jarnac (March 15, 1569).
Norris, the English ambassador, was accused of giving
encouragement and aid to the insurgents, and the king was
compelled to make a treaty with his armed subjects. In the spring of
1568, 3,000 of these French Huguenots marched into Flanders, to
join the Prince of Orange, who had taken the field against Alva. After
various successes, the prince, at the close of the campaign, was
obliged to retreat across the Rhine.
Throughout these struggles, both in France and Belgium, Elizabeth
lent much aid and encouragement in the shape of money; but, with
her usual caution, she would take no public part in the contest, and
all the while professed herself the friend of Philip, and most hostile
to rebellion.
The summer of 1569 was distinguished by a remarkable scheme for
the marriage of the Duke of Norfolk to the Queen of Scots, which
ended fatally for that nobleman, and increased the rigour of Mary's
incarceration. The scheme was said to have originated in the ever-
busy brain of Maitland. Murray fell into it, probably under the idea
that Mary would then content herself with living in England, and
leave the government of Scotland in his hands; or it might have
entered into his calculations that it would, on discovery, so
exasperate Elizabeth, as to lead to what it did, the closer
imprisonment of the Queen of Scots, which would be equally
acceptable to him. Elizabeth was not long in catching the rumours of
this plot, and she burst out on the duke in her fiercest style; but
Norfolk had the art to satisfy her of the folly of such an idea, by
replying that such a thing had, indeed, been suggested to him, but
that it was not a thing likely to captivate him, who loved to sleep on
a safe pillow. The plan, however, went on, and from one motive or
another, it eventually included amongst its promoters the Earls of
Pembroke, Arundel, Bedford, Shrewsbury, Northumberland, and
Westmoreland. Leicester and Throgmorton were induced to embrace
it, and even Cecil was made aware of it and favoured it. In Scotland,
Murray, Maitland, the Bishop of Ross, and Lord Boyd, were
favourable to the measure. Mary was sounded on the subject, and
professed her readiness to be divorced from Bothwell; but as to
marriage, from her past sorrowful experience, she would rather
retain her solitary life; yet, if the sanction of Elizabeth was obtained,
she would consent to take Norfolk—but not, since all her miseries
had flowed from her marriage with Darnley, contrary to the Queen of
England's pleasure. The duke, on his part, when it was proposed to
him, had recommended Leicester rather, and on his declining, his
own brother Lord Henry Howard. How far either party was sincere in
these statements matters little; the promoters were urgent and they
acquiesced.
The Bishop of Ross, with the apparent approbation of Murray,
undertook to negotiate with Elizabeth for the restoration of the
Scottish queen, on condition that neither she nor her issue should
lay claim to the English throne during the life of Elizabeth; and that
Mary should enter into a perpetual league, offensive and defensive,
with England, and establish the Reformed religion in Scotland.
Elizabeth affected to listen to these proposals, and the matter went
so far that, on the assembling of the Scottish Parliament in July,
1569, Murray professed to be quite agreeable to the liberation of
Mary, but took care to reject the proposals approved of by Elizabeth,
and opposed the appointment to examine the queen's marriage with
Bothwell. Maitland at once fathomed the long-concealed deceit of
the Regent, and dreading his vengeance on those who had
committed themselves in the matter, took a hasty flight into the
fastnesses of Athole.
And now befell what, no doubt, Murray had calculated upon. He
despatched an envoy to the English queen, bearing full details of the
propositions laid before the Scottish Parliament, and the consent
received from Bothwell in Denmark to the divorce. The marriage
with Norfolk, which was the end and object of all these plottings,
had never been communicated to Elizabeth; for though Leicester
had promised to impart it to her, he had not ventured to do it.
Elizabeth immediately invited Norfolk to dine with her at Farnham,
and, on rising from table, reminded him, in a very significant tone, of
his speech when charged with such a design some time before,
saying, "My lord duke, beware on what pillow you lay your head."
Alarmed at this expression, Norfolk urged Leicester to redeem his
promise, and speak to the queen on the subject; and this he did,
under pretence of being seriously ill, while the queen was sitting by
his bedside. The rage of Elizabeth was unbounded, but on Leicester
expressing the deepest regret for his meddling in the matter, she
forgave him, but sent for Norfolk and poured out on him her wrath
and scorn. Norfolk expressed himself perfectly indifferent to the
alliance, though so strongly recommended by his friends; but his
words and manner did not deceive the deep-sighted queen. She
continued to regard him with stern looks, and the courtiers
immediately avoided him as a dangerous person. Leicester, who had
promised him so much, lowered upon him as a public disturber.