Scribd
Upload
14 views22 pages

Independence Theorem

The document explains independent events in probability, where the occurrence of one event does not affect another. It provides definitions, mathematical proofs, and examples, including applications in games of chance, manufacturing, weather forecasting, and artificial intelligence. Key takeaways emphasize the significance of independence in simplifying probability calculations.

Uploaded by

Sharon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
14 views22 pages

Independence Theorem

The document explains independent events in probability, where the occurrence of one event does not affect another. It provides definitions, mathematical proofs, and examples, including applications in games of chance, manufacturing, weather forecasting, and artificial intelligence. Key takeaways emphasize the significance of independence in simplifying probability calculations.

Uploaded by

Sharon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 22

Understanding

Independent Events in
Probability
Explore the fascinating world of probability through
independent events. Learn how certain outcomes don't
affect each other and how this impacts probability
calculations.

by KLEIMARIE GARAY
SH ARO N T. ILLAG
W hat Are Independent Events?
D efinition Exam ple Form ula
Events whose occurrence is Flipping a coin twice -
P(A ∩ B) = P(A ) × P(B)
not dependent on any getting heads first doesn't
other event. affect second flip.
M athem atical Proof of Independence
Key Condition
For events A and B to be independent:
P(A |B) = P(A )
P(B|A ) = P(B)
P(A ∩ B) = P(A )P(B)
M athem atical Proof of Independence
Key Condition Exam ple: Rolling a D ie
For events A and B to be independent: Event A: "number is odd" (P(A ) = 1/2)
P(A |B) = P(A ) Event B: "multiple of 3" (P(B) = 1/3)
The occurrence of B doesn't affect probability of A. P(A ∩ B) = 1/6 = P(A ) × P(B)

Proof:
P(A│B) = P(A ∩ B)/ P(B)
1/6
= =1/2
1/3

P(A) = P(A│B) = 1/2


M athem atical Proof of Independence
Exam ple
Let event G = taking a math class. Let event H = taking a science class.
Then, G AND H = taking a math class and a science class. Suppose P(G) = 0.6,
P(H) = 0.5, and P(G AND H) = 0.3. Are G and H independent?

If G and H are independent, then you must show O NE of the following:


P(G|H) = P(G)
P(H|G) = P(H)
P(G AND H) = P(G)P(H)
M athem atical Proof of Independence
M athem atical Proof of Independence
One ball is drawn randomly from
a bowl containing four balls
numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4. Define
the following three events:

Let A be the event that a 1 or 2 is


drawn.
Let B be the event that a 1 or 3 is
drawn.
Let C be the event that a 1 or 4 is
drawn.
Are events pairwise
independent? Are they mutually
independent?
Venn D iagram Representation

Independent Events Mutually Exclusive Com plem ents


Events X and Y can occur Events X and Y cannot occur If X and Y are independent,
together. Their intersection together. Their intersection then X and Y' are also
probability equals P(X ) × is empty. independent.
P(Y ).
Independent vs. M utually
Exclusive Events
Ind ep end ent Events Mutually Exclusive Events

Can have common outcomes Never have common outcomes

P(A ∩ B) = P(A ) × P(B) P(A ∩ B) = 0

Not based on maiden trial Independent of trials


Venn Diagram Representation

P(X ∩ Y’) = P(X) − P(X) P(Y)


= P(X) (1 – P(Y))
= P(X) P(Y’)

C omplements
If X and Y are independent,
then X and Y' are also
independent.
Example with Solution
Question: Let X and Y are two independent events such that P(X)
= 0.3 and P(Y) = 0.7. Find P(X and Y), P(X or Y), P(Y
not X), and P(neither X nor Y).
Prob ab ility C alculations
P(A and B)
For independent events: P(A ∩ B) = P(A ) × P(B)
P(A or B)
P(A ∪ B) = P(A ) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
P(A not B)
P(A ∩ B') = P(A ) - P(A ∩ B)
P(neither A nor B)
P(A ' ∩ B') = 1 - P(A ∪ B)
Applications of
Independence in
Probability Theory
Application of Independence
Game of Chance
Calculating
probabilities for
outcomes like doubles

Example: Rolling dice


in board games.
Application of Independence
Manufacturing Quality Control
Testing items
independently for
defects.

Example:
Probability of two
machines producing
defective items
simultaneously
Application of Independence
Weather Forecasting
• Independent probabilities for different weather events
in unrelated regions
Application of Independence

Artificial Intelligence Models


Probabilities used in
machine learning processes
such as training data
preparation and inference.
Example:
Combining probabilities
from multiple AI models
for predictions.
Application of Independence
Example Problem
A coin is tossed, and a die is rolled. What is the probability of
getting heads and rolling a 6?
• Solution:
1 1
𝑃 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 = , 𝑃 6 = ,
2 6
𝑃 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 ∩ 6 = 𝑃 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 • 𝑃 6
1 1
= •
2 6
1
=
12
The probability of getting heads and rolling a 6 is 8.33%.
Application of Independence
Example Problem
An AI system uses two independent models to predict whether
an image contains an object. Model A has an accuracy of
90 % while Model B has an accuracy of 85%. What is the
probability that both models correctly identify an object?
Solution:
𝑃 𝐴 = 0.9, 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.85
Since they are independent:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵)
0.9 • 0.85
0.765
The probability that both models correctly identify an object is 76.5%.
Application of Independence
Example Problem
Suppose two AI models (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting
System (AIFS) by the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and NeuralGCM by Google,
independently predict whether a typhoon will hit a certain area
with accuracies of 95% and 85%. The probability that both
models correctly predict the typhoon's path is:
Solution:
𝑃(𝐴𝐼𝐹𝑆 ∩ 𝑁𝑒𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙𝐺𝐶𝑀) = 0.95 • 0.85
= 0.8075
The probability that both models correctly predict the typhoon's
path is 80.75%.
KEY TAKE AWAYS

❑ Independent Events: Events where the occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of another.
❑ Theorem on Independence: P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B) for independent events.
❑ Applications:
1.Games of Chance
2.Manufacturing Quality Control
3.Weather Forecasting
4.Artificial Intelligence Models
❑ Importance: Simplifies complex probability calculations and is essential in
various fields for accurate modeling and prediction.

You might also like