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Module-54-2015

The document discusses data analysis techniques for smaller-than-half fractions in experiments, focusing on the application of the Yates algorithm and the interpretation of statistical significance. It provides a formula for calculating confidence intervals for sums of effects and illustrates the process with an example involving catalyst data. The analysis emphasizes the ambiguity in interpreting results as the number of factors increases, suggesting that small fractions are best used for screening potential important factors for further study.

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Dame Yenyetou
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
3 views

Module-54-2015

The document discusses data analysis techniques for smaller-than-half fractions in experiments, focusing on the application of the Yates algorithm and the interpretation of statistical significance. It provides a formula for calculating confidence intervals for sums of effects and illustrates the process with an example involving catalyst data. The analysis emphasizes the ambiguity in interpreting results as the number of factors increases, suggesting that small fractions are best used for screening potential important factors for further study.

Uploaded by

Dame Yenyetou
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 8

IE 361 Module 54

Design and Analysis of Experiments Part 14


(Data Analysis for Smaller-Than-Half Fractions)

Reading: Section 6.1 Statistical Methods for Quality Assurance

ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC

(ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC) IE 361 Module 54 1/8


Data Analysis for a Smaller-Than-Half Fraction

To do data analysis for a 2p q study, one may


initially temporarily ignore the “last” q factors, treat the data as a full
factorial in the “…rst” p q factors, and judge the statistical
signi…cance and practical importance of estimates derived from the
Yates algorithm, and
then interpret these estimates in light of the alias structure (as
estimates of appropriate sums of 2p e¤ects).

For judging statistical signi…cance, where there is some replication (not all
2p q sample sizes are 1) con…dence intervals can be made for the (sums
of) e¤ects. Lacking any replication, normal plotting of the output of the
Yates algorithm (ignoring the “last” factor) is the only available method.

(ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC) IE 361 Module 54 2/8


Data Analysis for a Smaller-Than-Half Fraction
Con…dence Limits for Sums of Aliased E¤ects

To be explicit, the form of con…dence intervals for the (sums of) e¤ects is
r
1 1
2p q ∑ ncomb
b tspooled
E

where
2
2 ∑ (ncombination 1) scombination
spooled =
∑ (ncombination 1)
and the appropriate degrees of freedom for t are

∑ (ncombination 1) = n 2p q

(ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC) IE 361 Module 54 3/8


Data Analysis for a Smaller-Than-Half Fraction
Example 53-1 continued

In the catalyst example the 8 sample means, ȳ , listed before were in Yates
standard order for factors A, B and C (the “…rst” p q = 3) ignoring D
and E (the “last” q = 2). So the (p q = 3 cycle) Yates algorithm can
be applied to them in the order listed. The following table shows the …rst
two and last columns of the Yates table and then records what the
estimates produced by the algorithm attempt to approximate.
Combination y Estimate Sum Estimated
e 9.767 24.048 grand mean+aliases
ade 26.800 5.815 A main e¤ect+aliases
bd 24.880 .129 B main e¤ect+aliases
ab 33.150 1.492 AB interaction+aliases
cd 29.940 .399 C main e¤ect+aliases
ac 30.200 .511 AC interaction+aliases
bce 8.345 5.495 BC interaction+aliases
abcde 29.300 3.682 ABC interaction+aliases
(ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC) IE 361 Module 54 4/8
Data Analysis for a Smaller-Than-Half Fraction
Example 53-1 continued

Since the original data had 3 sample sizes larger than 1, statistical
signi…cance/detectability of these can be judged using con…dence limits for
sums of e¤ects. First,

2 (3 1)(2.543) + (2 1)(2.163) + (2 1)(.238)


spooled = = 1.872
(3 1) + (2 1) + (2 1)
p
So spooled = 1.872 = 1.368, and this can be used as a measure of
background noise and as a basic ingredient of con…dence intervals for the
sums of e¤ects.
spooled has 4 associated degrees of freedom. So if, e.g., 95% con…dence
intervals for the sums of e¤ects are desired, the “+/ part” of the
con…dence interval formula becomes
r
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2.776(1.368) 3 + + + + + + + i.e. 1.195
2 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 1
(ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC) IE 361 Module 54 5/8
Data Analysis for a Smaller-Than-Half Fraction
Example 53-1 continued

So a margin of error to associate with any one of the values produced by


the Yates algorithm is 1.195. We might therefore judge any estimate
larger in absolute value than 1.195 to represent a sum of e¤ects clearly
large enough to see above the background experimental variation.

Then the “detectable” sums are (in decreasing order of magnitude):


Sum Estimate
α2 + βγδ222 + αβγe2222 + δe22 5.815
βγ22 + αδ22 + e2 + αβγδe22222 5.495
αβγ222 + δ2 + αe22 + βγδe2222 3.682
αβ22 + γδ22 + αγe222 + βδe222 1.492

Happily, the last of these is smaller in magnitude than the other 3, but
there are at least 4 a priori equally plausible interpretations of the
possibility that each one of these 3 are really driven by a single e¤ect.
(ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC) IE 361 Module 54 6/8
Data Analysis for a Smaller-Than-Half Fraction
Example 53-1 continued

From this data analysis alone, it is equally plausible that there are
important
A main e¤ects, E main e¤ects, and D Main e¤ects,
A main e¤ects, E main e¤ects, and AE 2-factor interactions,
A main e¤ects, AD 2-factor interactions, and D main e¤ects, or
DE 2-factor interactions, E main e¤ects, D main e¤ects.

It should by now be clear that the larger is q, the larger the inevitable
ambiguity of interpretation of 2p q fractional factorial results and the
more likely the need for follow-up study. Small fractions are really most
useful as screening studies, to pick a few likely candidates out of many
potentially important factors for subsequent more detailed study.

(ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC) IE 361 Module 54 7/8


Data Analysis for a Smaller-Than-Half Fraction
Example 53-1 continued

In fact, a follow-up study con…rmed the importance of the D main e¤ect


and made the

A main e¤ects, E main e¤ects, and D Main e¤ects

intepretation of the original experimental results most attractive.

If the A (Ni/Re ratio) main e¤ect, the E (Support Type) main e¤ect and
the D (Reduction Temp) main e¤ect are indeed the most important
determiners of y , and large y is desirable, the signs of the estimates
indicate the need for “high A” (20/1 Ni/Re ratio), “low E”
(alpha-alumina support) and “high D” (500 reduction temp).

(ISU and Analytics Iowa LLC) IE 361 Module 54 8/8

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