Discrete Probabilty Distributions Examples
Discrete Probabilty Distributions Examples
• Trials: Single
Examples
1. If p = 0.7, find E(X) and V ar(X).
1
2 Binomial Distribution
The probability distribution is give by the following formula:
n x
P (X = x) = p (1 − p)n−x
x
where:
• n = number of trials
• x = number of successes
• p = probability of success
Examples
(i) Find P (X = 3) for n = 5, p = 0.6.
Solution:
5
P (X = 3) = (0.6)3 (0.4)2 = 0.3456
3
(iii) ACME Inc. produces super-tactile widgets for the latest DIY craze, and they are sold in boxes of
8. Unfortunately, 2% of them are faulty. Find the probability that a given box has at least one
faulty widget in it.
Solution:
Let the probability of a widget being faulty be p = 0.02. Since each box contains 8 widgets,
we define X as the number of faulty widgets in a box. We assume that each widget is faulty
independently with probability p.
The probability that a given widget is not faulty is:
Since there are 8 widgets in a box, the probability that all of them are not faulty is:
2
Computing the numerical value:
(0.98)8 ≈ 0.8509,
P (at least one faulty widget) ≈ 1 − 0.8509 = 0.1491.
Thus, the probability that a given box has at least one faulty widget is approximately 0.1491 or
14.91%.
(iv) A fair coin is flipped 10 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 6 heads?
Solution:
10
P (X = 6) = (0.5)6 (0.5)4
6
10!
= (0.5)10
6!(4!)
= 210 × (0.000976) = 0.205
(v) A factory produces light bulbs, and 90% of them are not defective. If a random sample of 15 bulbs
is selected, what is the probability that exactly 12 of them are not defective?
Solution:
15
P (X = 12) = (0.9)12 (0.1)3
12
15!
= (0.9)12 (0.1)3
12!(3!)
= 455 × (0.282) × (0.001) = 0.128
(vi) A factory produces light bulbs with a 5% defect rate. If 20 bulbs are tested, what is the probability
that exactly 2 are defective?
Solution: This is a Binomial distribution problem because:
• Fixed number of trials (n = 20),
• Independent trials,
• Probability of success (p = 0.05) is constant.
The PMF is:
n k
P (X = k) = p (1 − p)n−k
k
Substitute n = 20, p = 0.05, and k = 2:
20
P (X = 2) = (0.05)2 (0.95)18 = 190 · 0.0025 · 0.3972 = 0.1887
2
(vii) A multiple-choice test has 10 questions, each with 4 choices. If a student guesses randomly, what
is the probability of getting exactly 3 correct answers?
Solution: This is a Binomial distribution problem because:
• Fixed number of trials (n = 10),
• Independent trials,
• Probability of success (p = 0.25) is constant.
The PMF is:
n k
P (X = k) = p (1 − p)n−k
k
Substitute n = 10, p = 0.25, and k = 3:
10
P (X = 3) = (0.25)3 (0.75)7 = 120 · 0.015625 · 0.1335 = 0.2503
3
3
(viii) There were ten green bottles sitting on the wall. The probability of a green bottle accidentally
falling is 0.95. What is the probability that fewer than 8 of the green bottles accidentally fall? 8.
Fewer than 8 bottles fall
X ∼ B(10, 0.95)
Find P (X < 8) = P (X ≤ 7):
P (X ≤ 7) = 1 − P (X = 8) − P (X = 9) − P (X = 10)
(ix) Thirty percent of students at a large university are known to be short-sighted. If twenty students
are picked at random, find the probability that at most two of them are short-sighted.
Given:
X ∼ B(20, 0.3)
Find P (X ≤ 2):
P (X ≤ 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)
Using the binomial formula:
20
P (X = k) = (0.3)k (0.7)20−k
k
(x) An unbiased coin is tossed 10 times. Find the probability that there are fewer than 3 heads tossed.
X ∼ B(10, 0.5)
Find P (X < 3) = P (X ≤ 2):
(xi) A farmer plants 12 saplings. On average, 15% of saplings planted fail to survive their first winter.
Find the probability that more than one of his saplings will die in that first winter. 3. More than
one sapling dies
X ∼ B(12, 0.15)
Find P (X > 1) = 1 − P (X ≤ 1):
P (X = 0) ≈ 0.138, P (X = 1) ≈ 0.292
(xii) ACME Inc. produces super-tactile widgets for the latest DIY craze, and they are sold in boxes of
8. Unfortunately, 2% of them are faulty. Find the probability that a given box has at least one
faulty widget in it.
X ∼ B(8, 0.02)
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X = 0)
P (X = 0) ≈ 0.850
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − 0.850 = 0.15
4
(xiii) At Covington High School, 20% of sixth-form mathematics students retake their C1 module. There
are 15 students in Mr. Smither’s class; find the probability that precisely four of them retake this
module.
X ∼ B(15, 0.2)
Find P (X = 4):
15
P (X = 4) = (0.2)4 (0.8)11
4
P (X = 4) ≈ 0.218
(xiv) Brian enjoys his pizza. So much so that he eats pizza every night. He likes both pepperoni and
mushroom, and each night he chooses randomly and independently between these two options.
Given that each night he picks the mushroom option with probability 0.35, find the probability
that he eats between 2 and 4 (inclusive) mushroom pizzas this week (7 days).
X ∼ B(7, 0.35)
Find P (2 ≤ X ≤ 4):
5
Examples
(i) Find P (X = 5) for r = 2, p = 0.3.
Solution: P (X = 5) = 41 (0.3)2 (0.7)3 = 0.1323
(iv) A basketball player makes 60% of their free throws. What is the probability that they make their
third successful free throw on the sixth attempt?
Solution:
5
P (X = 6) = (0.6)3 (0.4)3
2
5!
= (0.216)(0.064) = 0.138
2!(3!)
(v) A researcher is conducting an experiment where the probability of success in each trial is 0.3. What
is the probability that the 5th success occurs on the 10th trial?
Solution:
9
P (X = 10) = (0.3)5 (0.7)5
4
= 126 × (0.000408) = 0.0514
(vi) A researcher is conducting experiments until they get 3 successful results. Each experiment has a
20% chance of success. What is the probability that the 3rd success occurs on the 7th trial?
Solution: This is a Negative Binomial distribution problem because:
• We are counting the number of trials (k = 7) needed to achieve a fixed number of successes
(r = 3),
• Probability of success (p = 0.2) is constant.
(vii) A basketball player has a 70% chance of making a free throw. What is the probability that they
will make their 5th successful free throw on the 8th attempt?
Solution: This is a Negative Binomial distribution problem because:
• We are counting the number of trials (k = 8) needed to achieve a fixed number of successes
(r = 5),
• Probability of success (p = 0.7) is constant.
6
(viii) A sales representative closes a deal with a probability of 0.3 on each call. What is the probability
that he closes his fourth deal on his tenth call?
Solution: Using the Negative Binomial PMF:
9
P (X = 10) = (0.3)4 (0.7)6
3
9!
= × (0.3)4 × (0.7)6
3!(6!)
= 84 × 0.0081 × 0.1176
= 0.080
7!
= × (0.6)5 × (0.4)3
4!(3!)
= 35 × 0.07776 × 0.064
= 0.174
4 Geometric Distribution
The geometric probability formula is:
P (X = x) = (1 − p)x−1 p
7
• Counts trials until first success
• Success probability: p
1
• Mean:
p
1−p
• Variance:
p2
Examples
(i) Find P (X = 4) when p = 0.2.
Solution: P (X = 4) = (0.8)3 (0.2) = 0.1024
(iv) A call center receives calls randomly, and the probability that a call is from a new customer is 0.2.
What is the probability that the first call from a new customer occurs on the fifth call?
Solution:
P (X = 5) = (0.8)4 (0.2) = 0.0819
(v) A factory produces defective bulbs with a probability of 0.05. What is the probability that the
first defective bulb is found on the 7th inspection?
Solution:
P (X = 7) = (0.95)6 (0.05)
= 0.7351 × 0.05
= 0.0368
(vii) A fisherman has a 15% chance of catching a fish each time he casts his line. What is the probability
that he will catch his first fish on the 4th cast?
Solution: This is a Geometric distribution problem because:
8
• We are counting the number of trials (k = 4) until the first success (catching a fish),
• Probability of success (p = 0.15) is constant.
The PMF is:
P (X = k) = (1 − p)k−1 p
Substitute p = 0.15 and k = 4:
5 Hypergeometric Distribution
The hypergeometric probability formula is:
K N −K
x n−x
P (X = x) = N
n
Examples
(i) N = 20, K = 7, n = 5, find P (X
= 2).
7 13
2
Solution: P (X = 2) = 3
20 = 0.3637
5
9
(iv) A company has 8 defective and 12 non-defective items. If 5 items are randomly selected without
replacement, what is the probability that exactly 3 of them are defective?
Solution:
8 12
3
P (X = 3) = 20
2
5
56 × 66
= = 0.238
15504
A batch contains 10 defective and 40 non-defective items. If we randomly select 6 items, what is
the probability that exactly 2 are defective?
Solution:
where: - D = 10 (defective items), - N = 40 (non-defective items), - n = 6 (sample size), - k = 2
(desired defective items).
10 40
2 4
P (X = 2) = 50
6
10! 40!
2!(8!) × 4!(36!)
= 50!
6!(44!)
45 × 91, 390
=
15, 890, 700
= 0.392
(v) A class has 25 students, 10 of whom are girls. If 6 students are selected at random without
replacement, what is the probability that exactly 3 are girls?
Solution: This is a Hypergeometric distribution problem because:
• The population is finite (N = 25),
• There are K = 10 successes (girls) in the population,
• We are drawing n = 6 students without replacement.
The PMF is:
K N −K
k n−k
P (X = k) = N
n
Substitute N = 25, K = 10, n = 6.
(vi) A box contains 20 chocolates, of which 5 are dark chocolate. If 4 chocolates are selected at random
without replacement, what is the probability that exactly 2 are dark chocolate?
Solution: This is a Hypergeometric distribution problem because:
• The population is finite (N = 20),
• There are K = 5 successes (dark chocolates) in the population,
• We are drawing n = 4 chocolates without replacement.
The PMF is:
K N −K
k n−k
P (X = k) = N
n
Substitute N = 20, K = 5, n = 4, and k = 2:
5 15
2 10 · 105
P (X = 2) = 20
2 = = 0.2167
4
4845
10
6 Multinomial Distribution
• Generalization of binomial
• Trials: n, Categories: k
• Probabilities: p1 , p2 , . . . , pk
Examples
(i) n = 5, p1 = 0.5, p2 = 0.3, p3 = 0.2, find P (X1 = 2, X2 = 2, X3 = 1).
5!
Solution: P = (0.5)2 (0.3)2 (0.2) = 0.135
2!2!1!
(ii) Find the probability when n = 4, p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.6, P (X1 = 3, X2 = 1).
4!
Solution: P = (0.4)3 (0.6) = 0.1536
3!1!
(iii) A die is rolled 6 times. What is the probability of obtaining 2 ones, 1 two, 1 three, and 2 fours?
Solution:
Here, the possible outcomes are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, and each face appears with probability pi = 16 .
Given: n = 6, x1 = 2, x2 = 1, x3 = 1, x4 = 2, x5 = 0, x6 = 0.
Using the multinomial formula:
2 1 1 2 0 0
6! 1 1 1 1 1 1
P (X1 = 2, X2 = 1, X3 = 1, X4 = 2, X5 = 0, X6 = 0) =
2!1!1!2!0!0! 6 6 6 6 6 6
6
720 1
= ×
2!1!1!2! 6
720 1
= ×
4 46656
1
= 180 ×
46656
= 0.00386.
(iv) A box contains 3 different colors of balls: red, blue, and green. The probabilities of drawing each
color are p1 = 0.5, p2 = 0.3, and p3 = 0.2. If we draw 5 balls, what is the probability of drawing 2
red, 2 blue, and 1 green?
Solution:
Given: n = 5, x1 = 2, x2 = 2, x3 = 1.
11
Using the multinomial formula:
5!
P (X1 = 2, X2 = 2, X3 = 1) = (0.5)2 (0.3)2 (0.2)1
2!2!1!
120
= × (0.25) × (0.09) × (0.2)
2!2!1!
120
= × 0.0045
4
= 30 × 0.0045
= 0.135.
8!
P (X1 = 5, X2 = 2, X3 = 1) = (0.6)5 (0.3)2 (0.1)1
5!2!1!
40320
= × (0.07776) × (0.09) × (0.1)
120 × 2 × 1
40320
= × 0.00069984
240
= 168 × 0.00069984
= 0.1176.
7!
P (X1 = 3, X2 = 3, X3 = 1) = (0.4)3 (0.4)3 (0.2)1
3!3!1!
5040
= × (0.064) × (0.064) × (0.2)
6×6×1
5040
= × 0.0008192
36
= 140 × 0.0008192
= 0.1147.
(vii) A multiple-choice test consists of 10 questions, each with 4 answer choices (A, B, C, D), and a
student guesses all answers randomly. What is the probability that the student selects 4 A’s, 3 B’s,
2 C’s, and 1 D?
Solution:
Given: n = 10, x1 = 4, x2 = 3, x3 = 2, x4 = 1, with each option having probability p = 0.25.
12
10!
P (X1 = 4, X2 = 3, X3 = 2, X4 = 1) = (0.25)4 (0.25)3 (0.25)2 (0.25)1
4!3!2!1!
3628800
= × (0.0009765625)
24 × 6 × 2 × 1
3628800
= × 0.0009765625
288
= 12600 × 0.0009765625
= 0.0123.
3 2 1
6! 1 1 1
P (X1 = 3, X2 = 2, X3 = 1) =
3!2!1! 3 3 3
720
= × (0.004115226)
6×2×1
720
= × 0.004115226
12
= 60 × 0.004115226
= 0.2469.
7 Poisson Distribution
Support X ∈ {0, 1, 2, . . . }
Mean λ
Variance λ
t
MGF eλ(e −1)
Cumulants κn = λ for all n
Example Number of arrivals per time unit
• Variance: λ
Examples
(i) For λ = 5, find P (X = 3).
53 e−5
Solution: P (X = 3) = ≈ 0.1404
3!
13
(ii) For λ = 4, find P (X = 0).
Solution: P (X = 0) = e−4 ≈ 0.0183
(iii) The average number of emails received per hour is 5. What is the probability of receiving exactly
3 emails in an hour?
Solution:
Given λ = 5, x = 3:
e−5 53
P (X = 3) =
3!
e−5 × 125
=
6
= 0.1404.
(iv) A factory records an average of 2 machine failures per day. What is the probability that there are
no failures in a day?
Solution:
Given λ = 2, x = 0:
e−2 20
P (X = 0) =
0!
= e−2
= 0.1353.
(v) A website receives an average of 10 visitors per minute. What is the probability of receiving exactly
7 visitors in a given minute?
Solution:
Given λ = 10, x = 7:
e−10 107
P (X = 7) =
7!
= 0.0902.
(vi) A call center receives an average of 3 calls per hour. What is the probability that exactly 5 calls
occur in an hour?
Solution:
Given λ = 3, x = 5:
e−3 35
P (X = 5) =
5!
= 0.1008.
(vii) A train station experiences an average of 4 train arrivals per hour. What is the probability of
exactly 6 arrivals in an hour?
Solution:
Given λ = 4, x = 6:
e−4 46
P (X = 6) =
6!
= 0.1042.
(viii) The number of misprints in a newspaper follows a Poisson distribution with an average of 1 misprint
per page. What is the probability that a randomly selected page has exactly 2 misprints?
Solution:
Given λ = 1, x = 2:
e−1 12
P (X = 2) =
2!
= 0.1839.
14
(ix) A rare disease occurs in a population at an average rate of 0.5 cases per year. What is the
probability that there will be no cases in a year?
Solution:
Given λ = 0.5, x = 0:
P (X = 0) = e−0.5
= 0.6065.
(x) A traffic light at an intersection experiences an average of 8 cars passing per minute. What is the
probability that exactly 10 cars pass in a given minute?
Solution:
Given λ = 8, x = 10:
e−8 810
P (X = 10) =
10!
= 0.0994.
(xi) A bookstore sells an average of 15 books per day. What is the probability that exactly 20 books
are sold in a day?
Solution:
Given λ = 15, x = 20:
e−15 1520
P (X = 20) =
20!
= 0.0516.
(xii) A customer service center receives an average of 12 complaints per day. What is the probability of
receiving exactly 8 complaints in a day?
Solution:
Given λ = 12, x = 8:
e−12 128
P (X = 8) =
8!
= 0.0653.
15