Probability

Worksheet #16
Ms. Shaikha Al-Rawahi
[email protected]
 Understand basic probability
Leaning concepts and compute the
outcomes probability of simple events
using tree diagrams.
Definitions

• Experiment: An experiment is a process that when performed, results

in one and only one of many observations.

• Outcomes: Observations are called outcomes of experiment.

• Sample Space: The collection of all outcomes in an experiment is

called a sample space
Examples of Experiments Outcomes and Sample Space
Definitions
Event: An event is a collection of one or more of the outcomes of an
experiment.

Simple Event: An event that includes one and only one outcome of an
experiment is called a simple event.

Compound Event: A compound event is a collection of more than one

outcomes of an experiment.

Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will

occur.
Calculating probability

Probability, which gives the likelihood of occurrence of an event, is

denoted by P.

The probability that a simple event 𝐸𝑖 will occur is denoted by 𝑃(𝐸𝑖),

The probability that a compound event A will occur is donated by P(A).

Example:
Draw the Venn and tree diagram for the
experiment of tossing a coin once.
Example:
Draw the Venn and tree diagram for the experiment of tossing a coin
twice.
Properties of Probability

1. The probability of an event always lies in the range 0 and 1.

I. An event that cannot occur has zero probability; such an event is
called impossible event.
II. An event that is certain to occur has a probability equal to 1 and
is called a sure event.
Properties of Probability

2. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events of an experiment,

denoted by ∑ 𝑷(𝑬𝒊), is always 1.

Illustrate this property, for the experiment of one toss of a coin,

𝑃(𝐻) + 𝑃(𝑇) = 1
Examples:
Three
Conceptual
Approach to • Classical Probability
Probability • Relative frequency concept of probability
• Counting Rules to find Total Outcome
 Classical Probability

Compound event simple event

Classical Probability
Classical Probability
Classical Probability
Relative frequency concept of probability

In relative frequency concept of probability, used relative frequency is

used as approximations of probability.

If an experiment is repeated n times and an event A is observed 𝑓

times, then, according to the relative frequency concept of the
probability:
Example:
Relative frequency concept of probability
Relative frequency concept of probability
Counting Rules to find Total Outcome

If an experiment consist of three steps and if the first step can result in
m outcomes, the second step in n outcomes, and the third in k
outcomes then:

The total outcomes for the experiment = 𝑚 . 𝑛 . 𝑘

Counting Rules to find Total Outcome
Example:
Marginal and Conditional Probabilities

• Marginal probability is the probability of a single event without

consideration of any other event. Marginal probability is also
called simple probability.
Marginal and Conditional Probabilities
• Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given
that another has already occurred. If A and B are two events, then the
conditional probability of A occurring given that B has occurred is written
as:

𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)

In addition, read as the probability of A given that B has already occurred.

Events that cannot occur together are said to be mutually exclusive event
Example:
Example:
Example:

10. What are mutually exclusive events?

The probability that an event will occur given that another has already
occurred. If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability of A
occurring given that B has occurred is written as 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
 Two events are said to be independent if the
Independent
occurrence of one does not affect the probability
events and
of the occurrence of the other.
dependent
events In other words, A and B are independent event if
𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨)
or
𝑷(𝑩|𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑩)
Example:
A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were manufactured on two machines.
Of them, 60 were manufactured on machine I. of the total CDs, 15 are
defective.

of the 60 CD's that were manufactured on machine I, nine are defective.

let D be the event that a randomly selected CD is defective, and let A be the
event that a randomly selected CD was manufactured on machine I.

Are events D and A independent?

Solution:
Complementary events

Complementary Event A : donated by 𝐴 a̅ nd is read as “A bar ” or “A

compliment” is the event that includes all the outcomes for an
experiment that are not in A.
Example:

A bag contains red and blue balls.

The probability of getting a red ball from the bag of balls is 1/6.

What is the probability of not getting a red ball?

Solution:

The probability of getting a red ball from the bag of balls is 1/6.

Therefore, the probability of not getting a red ball

𝑃(𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑑) = 1 – 1/6 = 5/6

Example:
12. A statistical experiment has eight equally likely outcomes denoted
by {1, 2, 3 , 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}.
Let event A= {2, 5 , 7 } and event B = { 1, 5 , 8 }.

a) Are the events A and B mutually exclusive? b. Are the events A and
B independent events?
b) Write the complements of the events A and B. Also, find their
probabilities.
Solution Q12:
Multiplication Rule

let A and B be two events.

The intersection of A and B represent

the collection of all outcomes that are
common to A and B and is donated by
𝐴∩𝐵
Multiplication Rule
The probability of the intersections
of two events is called their joint
probability .

It is written as
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑜𝑟
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Multiplication Rule
 Example:

The table below GIFs the classification of all employees of a company

given by gender and college degree.

If one of these employees is selected at random for a membership on

the employee management committee, what is the probability that
this employee is a female and a college graduate?
Example:
Example:
16. Find the joint probability of A and B if P(B) = 0.40 and P(A│B) = 0.81
Example:
17. Given that A and B are two independent events, find their joint
probability if P(A)=0.20 ; P(B)=0.76
Important rules:
Important rules:
Example:
14. Given that P(B) = 0.65 and P(A and B) = 0.45, find P(A|B).
Example:
15. Given that P(A) = 0.40 and P(A and B) = 0.31 , find P(B│ A)
 Addition Rule
Let A and B be 2 events defined in a sample space.

The union of events A and B is the collection of all

outcomes that belong to either A or B or to both A
and B and is denoted by

𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵

Or

𝐴∪B
Addition Rule

The probability of the union of two

events A and B is

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Note that the probability of the union

of two mutually exclusive events is

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

 In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys
and 13 are girls.

On a unit test, 4 boys and 5 girls made an A

Example: grade.

If a student is chosen at random from the

class, what is the probability of choosing a
girl or an A student?
Solution:
Example:
8. Find P(A or B) if P(A)= 0.58 ; P(B)=0.66 and P(A and B)= 0.57
Example(H.W):
9. Find P(A and B) if P(A)= 0.44 ; P(B)=0.24 and P(A or B)= 0.60
Example:
11. Find P(A or B) , if P(A) = 0.25 and P(B) = 0.27 , given A and B are
mutually exclusive.
Example:
13. In a group of 2500 persons, 1400 are female, 600 are vegetarian,
and 400 are female and vegetarian. What is the probability that a
randomly selected person from this group is a male or vegetarian?
(Hint: Use the Addition Rule of Probability
Solution Q#13:
Veg Non-veg Total
Male 200 900 1100
Female 400 1000 1400
Total 600 1900 2500
Example(H.W):
Solution Q18:
Solution Q18:
Example:
Example:
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Example:
Calculating Probability tree diagrams are useful for
probability o Calculating combined probabilities for sequences of
using Tree events
diagram o It helps you to map out the probabilities of many
possibilities graphically, without the use of
complicated probability formulas
 A probability tree has two main parts:
o The branches
Parts of a o The ends (sometimes called leaves)
Probability
The probability of each branch is generally written
Tree Diagram on the branches,
while the outcome is written on the ends of the
branches.
How do we
• We multiply probabilities along
calculate the the branches
overall
probabilities?
• We add probabilities down
columns
Example:
A bag contains 3 black balls and 5 white balls. Paul picks a ball at random
from the bag and replaces it back in the bag. He mixes the balls in the bag
and then picks another ball at random from the bag.
a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.
b) Calculate the probability that Paul picks:
i) two black balls
ii) a black ball in the second draw
Solutions:
Solutions:
Example:
24. Two balls are drawn in succession, without replacement, from a box
containing 3 blue and 2 white balls. Draw a tree diagram and find the
probability of
(a) Drawing two white balls.
(b) A white ball followed by a blue ball.
(c) one of the balls is white
(d) At least one ball is blue.
Example:
Example:
25. Two fruits are drawn in succession, without replacement, from a
box containing 20 apples and 10 oranges. Draw a tree diagram and find
the probability of
(a) Drawing two oranges
(b) An apple followed by an orange
Example:
Example:
28. In a group of 10 persons, 4 have a Type A personality and 6 have
Type B personality. If two persons are selected at random from this
group, what is the probability that the first of them has Type A
personality and the second has Type B personality? Draw a Tree
diagram for this problem
Example: