Concept Selection

Decision Making

Dr. Mohammed Rajik Khan

Courtesy: Ulrich and Eppinger
 Journey So Far
Concept Development Phase
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Concept System-Level Detail Testing and Production
Development Design Design Refinement Ramp-up

Mission Development
Statement Plan

Identify Establish Generate Select a

Target Product Test Set Plan
Customer Product
Specs Concepts Product Final Downstream
Needs Concept
Concept Specs Development

Perform Economic Analysis

Benchmark Competitive Products
Build and Test Models and Prototypes

Concept Development
Chapter 7 Ulrich & Eppinger
Questions arising how to select one Concept
for further design
• How can the team choose the best concept, given
that the designs are still quite abstract?
• How can the decision be made that is embraced by
the whole team?
• How can desirable attributes of otherwise weak
concepts be identified and used?.
• How can the decision making process be documented?
Facts About Concept Selection
• Concept selection is the process of evaluating
concepts with respect to the customer needs and
other criteria, comparing the relative strengths and
weaknesses of the concepts, and selecting one or
more concepts for further investigation.
• Concept selection is a convergent process.
• Concept selection is also an iterative process that
does not always produce the dominant concept
immediately.
• Better concepts may be found through recombination
of pre-screened concepts.
• Recombination may temporarily enlarge the number
of available concepts.
• The final concept is chosen after several iterations.
 Concept Development Funnel

Filter and decide

concept gener ation

concept scre ening

concept scor ing

Expand our thinking concept testing

Goal: The goal is not to select the best concept but to develop the
best concept by combining and/or refining
Selection Methods
• Every team uses some method of decision making.
Common methods include:
− External decision; let someone else decide, customer, client,
company chairman, etc.
− Product Champion; an influential team member chooses the
concept (personal preference).
− Intuition; subjective criteria are used to decide. It just feels
better (feel good factor).
− Multi-voting; team members vote for their favorite - team
concensus (subjective)
− Pros and Cons; team list strengths and weaknesses and choose
based on opinions.
− Prototype and test; team builds several units and decision is
based on results (Expensive & time consuming).
− Decision matrices; team rates each concept against defined
selection criteria (relatively more objective) - Preferred method.
Benefits of using Decision Matrices
− A customer focused product; concepts are
evaluated against customer-oriented criteria.
− More competitive designs; concepts are
benchmarked against best-in-class designs.
− Reduced development time; using a
structured approach develops a common
vision and language for the design team.
− Better group decision making; the decision
is more likely to be based on objective
criteria.
− Documentation of the decision process; the
method provides its own documentation.
• The Two Stages of Concept Selection
− Concept Screening: give relative score against
a known benchmark design.
− fast, approximate evaluation that produces several viable
concepts.
− Best used when quantitative comparisons are difficult.
− Usually requires some sort of reference concept for relative
evaluation.
− Concept Scoring: weighted ranking of
measurement criteria.
− Used when only a few alternatives are being considered.
− Required quantitative comparisons of concepts.
− Can still be quite subjective due to choices of weights and
ranks.
• Concept Selection – Quantitative screening
based on decision matrix
Pugh Matrix
− 1. Prepare the selection matrix—choose the selection
criteria.
− 2. Rate the concepts. Evaluate against a reference
− 3. Rank the concepts. Give the concept a # score
− 4. Combine and improve concepts.
− 5. Select one or more concepts.
− 6. Reflect on the results and the process.
− Concept Scoring – similar steps, weighted
scores, more refinement and advancement
over Pugh matrix
• Step 1--Preparing the Selection Matrix.
− The choice of the selection matrix is key to
the success of both Screening and Scoring.
− Selection criteria should be independent.
− Selection criteria should be chosen to
differentiate among the concepts.
− The criteria should be of the same relative
worth.
− Don’t get too many criteria.
− Use industry comparisons if available.
• Concept Screening matrix
− Start with the selection criteria.
− Where are you going to get the selection
criteria?

− These are the key attributes or features of

the product.
• Next develop the list of concepts that you
are considering for the solution
− This list is the output of the concept generation
exercise.
− Prune the list using intuitive methods to a
manageable number of concepts to consider.
− Each concept should be a solution to the same
problem.
• Next develop the list of concepts that you
are considering for the solution
− The selection criteria are listed along the left
hand side of the screening matrix.
− Each criteria is given equal weight in the
screening matrix.
− The concepts are entered along the top of the
matrix.
− A benchmark /reference concept is chosen
against the others.
− Either an industry standard or chosen
straightforward for which the team members
are very familiar.
• Concept Screening
− Step 2--Rating Concepts
• Use a relative score, + (better than), 0 (same
as), - (worse than) or colored dots
• rate against a reference
− Step 3--Rank the Concepts
• sum up the scores
• rank the concepts by scores, highest to lowest.
− Step 4--Combine and Improve the Concepts
• Look at the results and see if there are ways to
combine concepts
• is there one bad feature that is degrading a good
concept?
 Method 1--Concept Screening

Product Concepts
A B C E F
Selection Criteria
Criteria 1

Criteria 2

Criteria 3

Sum/Rank
 Concept Screening
Concept Ratings
Concepts
Criteria A B C E F

Criteria 1
0 - 0 + --

Criteria 2 0 - + ++ 0

Criteria 3 0 0 - 0 -

Sum/Rank 0 -2 0 +3 -3

A= reference
 Concept Selection Example:
Reusable Syringe
• Design an improved, reusable syringe with precise
dosage control for outpatient use.
− Current product was too costly and inaccurate
• Seven criteria identified based on customer needs
− Ease of handling, use and manufacture
− Readability of dose settings and accuracy
− Durability and portability
• Seven overall product concepts proposed
Pugh Matrix Concepts which made the first cut BUT more refinement
required before SCORING process
Structure
Concepts
Selection Criteria A B C D E F G
(Ref)
Ease of Handling 0 0 - 0 0 - -
Ease of use 0 - - 0 0 + 0
Readibility of settings 0 0 + 0 + 0 +
Metering accuracy 0 0 0 0 - 0 0
Durability 0 0 0 0 0 + 0
Ease of Manufacture + - - 0 0 - 0
Portability + + 0 0 + 0 0
Sum of +’s 2 1 1 0 2 2 1
Sum of –’s 0 2 3 0 1 2 1
Net rating 2 -1 -2 0 1 0 0
Rank 1 6 7 3 2 3 3
Continue? Yes No No Comb Yes Comb Rev
• Method 2--Concept Scoring
− Step 1--Preparing the selection matrix.
− Select one concept as a reference or datum
• Best in Pugh Matrix
− In addition to the requirements for screening:
• each criteria must be assigned a weight in
relationship to its importance.
• A good way of assigning weights is to allocate 100
percentage points across all criteria.
• Or, importance values can be assigned, 1-9 or 1 to 5.
• There are empirical methods of assigning weights,
but more often they are determined by team
consent.
• Concept scoring, continued
− Step 2--Rate the Concepts
• Assign a numerical value to each concept with respect
to the criteria. Datum maybe different for each
criterion.

− Much better than datum: 5

− Better than datum: 4
− Same as datum: 3
− Worse than datum: 2
− Much worse than datum: 1

• Finer scales (1 to 9) etc. may also be used.

• Concept scoring, continued
− Step 3--Rank the Concepts
• ranking is done by multiplying the concept scores by the
criteria weights.
n
S j   wi rij
i 1
n = number of criteria.
wi = weighting for the ith criterion.
rij = raw rating of concept j for the ith criterion.
Sj = total score for concept j.

• Add up all the scores for each concept.

• Concept Scoring continued
− Step 4--Combining and improving is similar to
concept screening.
− Step 5--Select one or more concepts
• choose the highest ranking concepts
• look for individuals scores where one criteria was
significant to the total.
• Decide whether the scoring was quantitative enough
to make a decision.
− Step 6--Reflect on the Results
• this is again similar to screening, does the answer
make sense.
• Concept Scoring Matrix

Concepts
Concept A Concept B Concept C Concept D

Criteria Weight Rating Weighted

Score Rating Weighted
Score
Rating Weighted
Score
Rating Weighted
Score

Criteria 1 X% 1 1X
Criteria 2 Y% 3 3Y
Criteria 3 Z% 9 9Z

Totals 100% Sum

 Example: Concept Scoring
Generated from
Customer Needs
Concepts
A DF E G+
(reference)
Master Cylinder Lever Stop Swash Ring Dial Screw+

Weighted Weighted Weighted Weighted

Selection Criteria Weight Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score
Ease of Handling 5% 3 0.15 3 0.15 4 0.2 4 0.2
Ease of Use 15% 3 0.45 4 0.6 4 0.6 3 0.45
Readability of Settings 10% 2 0.2 3 0.3 5 0.5 5 0.5
Dose Metering Accuracy 25% 3 0.75 3 0.75 2 0.5 3 0.75
Durability 15% 2 0.3 5 0.75 4 0.6 3 0.45

Ease of Manuf acture 20% 3 0.6 3 0.6 2 0.4 2 0.4

Portability 10% 3 0.3 3 0.3 3 0.3 3 0.3
Total Score 2.75 3.45 3.10 3.05
Rank 4 1 2 3
Continue? No Dev elop No No

Need to revisit PUGH Matrix as your

team’s knowledge base expands
• Concept scoring, continued
− Step 4--Combine and improve the concepts

− Step 5--Select one or more concepts for further

refinement and analysis
• Sensitivity analysis (vary weights and ratings)
• Build and test prototypes
− Step 6--Reflect on the results and process
• Down-select to the consensus final concept
selection
Final Winning Concept - DF

Concept DF was selected as the winning concept HOWEVER:

Do not simply select concept was highest rating – conduct a sensitivity
study by varying weights and ratings and examine effect on winning
concept rating. Does uncertainty about a particular value have a large
impact on the winning concept?
Team could have decided to go with top two (or more) concepts.
Concepts could be prototyped and tested for customer feedback.
 Selection process

Generation Screening Scoring Selected

• Summary
• All teams use some form of selection, often it is
implicit and unstructured.
• Structured concept selection provides a level of
objective measurement that can help differentiate
between competing solutions.
• Concept screening is useful for eliminating alternatives
when you have a large number to consider.
• Concept scoring is used to refine the selection when
you have only a few choices.
• Screening and scoring are not exact sciences.
• Include ease of manufacture, reduced liability, and/or
cost as criteria
Thank you
Concept Testing
 Test Product Concepts

Mission Development
Statement Identify Establish Generate Select Test Set Plan Plan
Customer Target Product Product Product Final Downstream
Needs Specifications Concepts Concept(s) Concept(s) Specifications Development

Perform Economic Analysis

Benchmark Competitive Products

Build and Test Models and Prototypes

Helps in further exploring concepts…

Which concept should be pursued?
How can the concept be improved to better meet customer needs?
Should development continue?
TOOL: Survey customer response
Concept Testing: What is it?
Concept testing is:
• closely related to concept selection
• different from concept selection in that it
is based on data gathered directly from
potential customers and relies to a lesser
degree on judgments made by the
development team.
Concept Testing: What for ?
• Go/no-go decisions
• What market to be in?
• Selecting among alternative concepts
• Confirming concept selection decision
• Benchmarking
• Soliciting improvement ideas
• Forecasting demand
• Ready to launch?
Concept Testing Process
A seven-step method
Step 1: Define the purpose of the test
Step 2: Choose a survey population
Step 3: Choose a survey format
Step 4: Communicate the concept
Step 5: Measure customer response
Step 6: Interpret the results
Step 7: Reflect on the results and the process
Concept Testing Example:
Power Electric Scooter

Courtesy: Ulrich & Eppinger

1 Define purpose of concept test
Write down the questions the team wishes to
answer with the test:
− Which of several alternative concepts
should be pursued?
− How can the concept be improved to
better meet customer needs?
− Approximately how many units are likely
to be sold?
− Should development be continued?
− …..
2 Choose a survey population
The underlying assumption is that the survey
population reflects the target market.
– Ex.: Power scooter has two main markets:
• urban consumer
• college students
− Screening Questions: To verify that the
respondents fits the definition of the
target market for the product.
− Product addresses multiple market
segments: Potential customers from each
target segments be surveyed.
− Sample Size
3 Choose a survey format
• Face-to-face interaction
− Stopping people at the street
• Telephone
− May be targeted to specific individuals
• Postal mail
− Somewhat slower than other methods, often
poor response
• E-mail
− Similar to postal mail except respondents seem
slightly more likely to reply than via postal mail
• Internet
− A team may create a Web site for virtual
concept testing
4 Communicating the Concept
• Written or verbal description
• Sketch
• Photos and renderings
• Storyboards
• Video
• Simulation
• Interactive multimedia
• Physical appearance models
• Working prototypes
 Verbal Description
• The product is a lightweight electric scooter
that can be easily folded and taken with you
inside a building or on public transportation.
• The scooter weighs about 12 kg. It travels at
speeds of up to 25 kilometers per hour and
can go about 20 kilometers on a single charge.
• The scooter can be recharged in about two
hours from a standard electric outlet.
• The scooter is easy to ride and has simple
controls — just an accelerator button and a
brake.
Price
• Include price in concept description?
Sketch
Rendering
Storyboard
3D Solid CAD Model
Appearance Model
Working Prototype
Beta Prototype
Production Product
Survey Format
5 Measure customer response

To measure purchase intent

• Definitely would buy
• Probably would buy
• Might or might not buy
• Probably would not buy
• Definitely would not buy
Survey Format
Survey Format
 6 Interpreting the Results:
Forecasting Sales

• A is the fraction of potential customers or purchases for which the

product is available and the customer is aware of the product.
• Fdefinitely is the fraction of survey respondents indicating in the concept
test survey that they would definitely purchase
• Cdef (0.1-0.5)and Cprob (0.0-0.25)are the calibration constants
 Discussion
• Why do respondents typically overestimate
purchase intent?
− Might they ever underestimate intent?
• How to use price in surveys?
• How much does the way the concept is
communicated matter?
− When shouldn’t a prototype model be
shown?
• How do you increase sales, Q?
• Price: to include or not to include?
Thank you
 Exercise
• for “Innovative Directions”

• “Design and build an economical solution which will

make it easy for those unfamiliar with the NIT campus
to find their way around.”
Innovative Directions Concept Generation
What would be some of the possible solutions for
providing campus directions?

•Physical map

•Downloadable map

•New signs on campus

•New building signs

•Color coded strips on the sidewalks

•………
Innovative Directions Concept Screening example
What would some good screening criteria for
choosing the best alternative for the Innovative
Directions example?
Criteria
• Cost of the solution
• Ease of use
• Portability
• Accuracy of data
• Cost of development
• Availability of solution

What would be a good benchmark concept?