Probability and Random

Variables

Dr. Sadiq Ali

 Lecture Outline
• Tree Diagrams
• Theorem on Total Probability
 Tree Diagram
• A tree diagram shows the possibilities of two or more
events and helps calculate their probabilities.

• It visualizes probabilities, especially in complex

scenarios, and is useful for independent and
dependent events.

• First, we’ll explore tree diagrams for independent

events, like coin tosses.
 Tree Diagram
• A tree diagram begins with a top node for the initial state.
• Branches connect nodes representing events, like "Head"
or "Tail" in a coin toss.

Top node
 Tree Diagram

• The first layer has two nodes because a coin toss has
two possible outcomes: Heads or Tails.
• For an activity with three possible outcomes, the first
layer would have three nodes instead.
 Tree Diagram

• A tail or a head is an event, each with a probability of

0.5, noted along the branches.
• The second layer represents the second coin toss, using
the same coin after the first toss.
 Tree Diagram

• The second-layer nodes TT, TH, HT, HH represent the

second coin's outcomes while reflecting the first toss.
 Tree Diagram

• For example, TH means a head in the second toss

after a tail in the first.
• Each branch is labeled 0.5, as heads or tails are
equally likely.
 Tree Diagram

• To find an event's probability, trace the path from the

first node to its corresponding outcome.
 Tree Diagram

• To find the probability of heads first and tails second,

multiply the probabilities along the corresponding
branches (marked in red in the next slide).
 Tree Diagram

P[HT] = 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/4

 Tree Diagram
• Another way to find the probability of heads first and
tails second is by using the multiplication rule for
independent events.
• Let event A be heads in the first toss and event B be
tails in the second toss.
• Since the tosses are independent, we apply the
equation:
–P A∩B =P A ×P B for independent
– P A ∩ B = 1/2 × 1/2
 Basics - Example
• Ahmed tosses a biased coin three times with
probability of heads 1/3. Plot the tree diagram for
this random experiment.
Basics - Example
 Basics - Example
• Ahmed tosses a biased coin three times with
probability of heads 1/3. Plot the tree diagram for this
random experiment.
• Find the probability that he gets heads in the first
toss and tails in the second toss.
P[HT] = 1/3 × 2/3 = 2/9
 Basics - Example
• Ahmed tosses a biased coin three times with
probability of heads 1/3. Plot the tree diagram for this
random experiment.

• Find the probability that he gets heads in the first

toss and tails in the second and third toss.
 Basics - Example

P[HT] = 1/3 × 2/3 × 2/3 = 4/27

Tree Diagram: Conditional Probability
• Two dependent events: a coin toss (Event A) and a
cricket match (Event B). The match outcome depends
on the toss result.

– Event A: Pakistan wins the toss.

– Event AC : Pakistan loses the toss.
– Event B: Pakistan wins the match.
– Event B C : Pakistan loses the match.
• How do we draw the tree diagram for this case?
Tree Diagram: Conditional Probability
• Notice how the branches in the second layer of the
tree diagram now represent conditional probabilities.
 Tree Diagram
• What if the two events were independent of one
another.
• Event A: It rains on election day in the US.
• Event AC : It does not rain on election day in the US.
• Event B: Pakistan’s Team wins Champions Trophy.
• Event BC : It does not Win.
• Both events are independent—rainfall in the US does
not affect Pakistan chances of Winning the Trophy.
 Tree Diagram
• Notice how, in the branches of the second layer, the
conditional probabilities have been replaced with
direct probabilities.

?
 Tree Diagram
• Because for independent events the following conditions hold,
– P BȁA = P B P B C หA = P B C
– P BȁAC = P B P BC หAC = P B C
 Activity 1
• Fair coin is tossed twice. Find the Probability of at
least one Head.
 Activity 1
• Fair coin is tossed twice. Find the Probability of at
least one Head.
1st 2nd
H HH

H
T HT Possible
H Outcomes
TH
T

T TT
 Activity 1
Probability of at least one Head
1st 2nd
½ H HH P(H,H)=½x½=¼

½ H
½
T HT P(H,T)=½x½=¼

½ H TH P(T,H)=½x½=¼
½ T

½ T TT P(T,T)=½x½=¼

Independent Events – 1st spin does not affect the 2nd spin
 Activity 1
1st 2nd
H HH P(H,H)=½x½=¼
½
*
½ H
½
T HT

½ H TH
P(H,T)=½x½=¼

P(T,H)=½x½=¼
*
½ T *
½ T TT P(T,T)=½x½=¼

Probability of at least one Head: ¼ + ¼ + ¼= ¾

 Activity 2
A fair coin is flipped thrice. Using the probability tree
diagram find the probability of getting at least two tails.
 Activity 2 Solution

P (at least two tails) = P(HTT) + P(THT) + P(TTH) + P(T

TT) = (1/ 8) + (1/ 8) + (1/ 8) + (1/ 8)
= 4 / 8 = 1/2
 Example: Multiplication rule
• The probability that Pakistan wins a match against
Australia if it wins the toss is 0.4. The probability that
Pakistan wins a match against Australia if it loses the
toss is 0.23.

• Plot the tree diagram for this situation and label

the corresponding probabilities on the tree
diagram.
 Example: Multiplication rule
• A – Pakistan winning the toss
• B – Pakistan winning the match
 Example: Multiplication rule
• A – Pakistan winning the toss
• B – Pakistan winning the match
 Example: Multiplication rule
• The probability that Pakistan wins a match against
Australia if it wins the toss is 0.4. The probability that
Pakistan wins a match against Australia if it looses
the toss is 0.23.

• Find the probability that Pakistan will loose the

toss and the win the match.
 Example: Multiplication rule
• A – Pakistan winning the toss
• B – Pakistan winning the match

P[AC∩B] = 0.5 × 0.23 = 0.115

 Numerical Example 1
• A simple electrical circuit consists of two
components, a capacitor 𝐶 and a resistor 𝑅, connected
in series. The failure rate of the capacitor is 0.1 (10%)
and the failure rate of the resistor is 0.2 (20%). What
is the probability that the entire circuit will fail?
 Example 1 Solution
P C Fails and R fails
P R Fails = 0.2

P C Fails = 0.1

P R works = 0.8 P C Fails and R works

P R Fails = 0.2
P C Works and R fails
P C Works = 0.9

P R works = 0.8 P C works and R works

 Example 2 Solution
• To find the probability of the circuit failing, follow the
branches that lead to a circuit failure:

• "Capacitor fails" and "Resistor fails": 0.1 × 0.2 = 0.02

• "Capacitor works" and "Resistor fails": 0.9 × 0.2 = 0.18

• "Capacitor Fails" and "Resistor works": 0.1 × 0.8 = 0.08

• The total probability of circuit failure: 0.02 + 0.18 +

0.08 = 0.28 (or 28%).
 Example 2
Probability that it rains on a given day is 0.6. If it rains, the
probability that a group of friends play football is 0.2. If it does
not rain, the probability that they play football rises to 0.8.
1. Work out the probability that it rains on a given day and
the friends play football.
2. Work out the probability that it does not rain on a
given day and the friends play football.
3. What is the probability that the friends will play football
on a given day?

Conditional Probability Applied to the Weather Using a Tree

Diagram
Example 2: Solution
P Rain ∩ Football
= P Rain × P FootballȁRain
= 0.6 × 0.2 = 0.12

P NO Rain ∩ Football
= P NO Rain × P FootballȁNO Rain
= 0.4 × 0.8 = 0.32

P Football
= P Rain ∩ Football
+ P No Rain ∩ Football
= 0.12 + 0.32 = 0.44
 Home Assignment
1. 1A circuit consists of three resistors: resistor 𝑅1 resistor
𝑅2 and resistor 𝑅3 joined in a series. If one of the
resistors fails, the circuit stops working. The
probabilities that resistors 𝑅1 , 𝑅2 , or 𝑅3 will fail are
0.07, 0.10, and 0.08, respectively. Draw Tree Diagram.
Find the probability that at least one of the resistors will
fail?
2. A jar contains 3 black and 2 white marbles. We continue
to draw marbles one at a time until two black marbles
are drawn. If a white marble is drawn, the outcome is
recorded and the marble is put back in the jar before
drawing the next marble. What is the probability that we
will get exactly two black marbles in at most three tries?
 Home Assignment
3. A simple electrical circuit consists of two
components, a capacitor 𝐶 and a resistor 𝑅 ,
connected in parallel. The failure rate of the
capacitor is 0.1 (10%) and the failure rate of the
resistor is 0.2 (20%). What is the probability that the
entire circuit will fail?
4. Suppose a bag contains a total of 5 balls out of
which 2 are blue and 3 are orange. Using a
probability tree diagram, find the conditional
probability of drawing a blue ball given that the
first ball was orange. The balls are drawn without
replacement.