Exploring_Early_Learning_Challenges_in_Children_Ut
Exploring_Early_Learning_Challenges_in_Children_Ut
Article
1 Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh;
[email protected] (M.A.M.); [email protected] (M.R.K.); [email protected] (M.M.H.)
2 Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University,
Tangail 1902, Bangladesh; [email protected]
3 Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Uttara University, Dhaka 1230, Bangladesh
4 Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Florida Atlantic University,
Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA
* Correspondence: [email protected]
Abstract: To mitigate future educational challenges, the early childhood period is critical
for cognitive development, so understanding the factors influencing child learning abilities
is essential. This study investigates the impact of parenting techniques, sociodemographic
characteristics, and health conditions on the learning abilities of children under five years
old. Our primary goal is to explore the key factors that influence children’s learning abilities.
For our study, we utilized the 2019 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) dataset in
Bangladesh. Using statistical analysis, we identified the key factors that affect children’s
learning capability. To ensure proper analysis, we used extensive data preprocessing,
feature manipulation, and model evaluation. Furthermore, we explored robust machine
learning (ML) models to analyze and predict the learning challenges faced by children.
These include logistic regression (LRC), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbor (KNN),
random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and bagging
classification models. Out of these, GB and XGB, with 10-fold cross-validation, achieved
an impressive accuracy of 95%, F1-score of 95%, and receiver operating characteristic area
under the curve (ROC AUC) of 95%. Additionally, to interpret the model outputs and
Academic Editors: Antonio
Sarasa Cabezuelo and María
explore influencing factors, we used explainable AI (XAI) techniques like SHAP and LIME.
Estefanía Avilés Mariño Both statistical analysis and XAI interpretation revealed key factors that influence children’s
Received: 24 November 2024
learning difficulties. These include harsh disciplinary practices, low socioeconomic status,
Revised: 24 December 2024 limited maternal education, and health-related issues. These findings offer valuable insights
Accepted: 31 December 2024 to guide policy measures to improve educational outcomes and promote holistic child
Published: 4 January 2025 development in Bangladesh and similar contexts.
Citation: Mim, M.A.; Khatun, M.R.;
Hossain, M.M.; Rahman, W.; Munir, A. Keywords: child development; Bangladesh multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS);
Exploring Early Learning Challenges machine learning; explainable AI; SHAP; LIME
in Children Utilizing Statistical and
Explainable Machine Learning.
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20. https://
doi.org/10.3390/a18010020
1. Introduction
Copyright: © 2025 by the authors.
Children’s learning capacities and psychological development are significantly influ-
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
enced by the parenting practices and sociodemographic features in their environment. The
distributed under the terms and impact of good relationships, engagement, and participation between parents and children
conditions of the Creative Commons on academic achievement is positive [1]. This engagement involves things like reading
Attribution (CC BY) license aloud to kids, guiding studies, and staying in touch with them, all of which are essential for
(https://creativecommons.org/
creating a positive learning environment. The long-term effects of parenting practices such
licenses/by/4.0/).
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and UNICEF conducted the Multiple Indicator
Cluster Surveys (MICS) in 2019. This survey collected a comprehensive dataset that in-
cludes information on child welfare, household characteristics, and parenting practices
in Bangladesh [20]. Employing this information provides an opportunity to explore the
multifaceted relationships between the sociodemographic characteristics, parenting styles,
and educational achievement of Bangladeshi children, which can then be applied to sim-
ilar studies. In addition, to analyze and forecast a wide range of outcomes regarding
child development and education, ML approaches have become an increasingly powerful
tool [21,22]. Researchers have the potential to use ML algorithms on the MICS 2019 dataset
to gain valuable insights into the factors affecting children’s learning skill comparisons.
Moreover, they can apply these insights to shape interventions and policies that aim to
enhance opportunities for children in Bangladesh.
The literature review shows how ML can predict academic performances, learning
difficulties, mental health illnesses, and parenting styles in child development studies.
These studies highlight the complicated relationship between individual, familial, and
environmental influences on children. Our research is motivated by the critical need to
address and understand challenges in early childhood development and education using
advanced computational techniques. Our literature review revealed a research gap, as
no previous studies have concentrated on identifying and forecasting the influencing
factors for learning difficulties among Bangladeshi children. While ML has been widely
used in child development studies in other countries, such as Oman, Australia, and the
U.S., there has been limited exploration of early childhood learning outcomes in the
Bangladeshi context. Our study addresses this gap by applying ML techniques to the
MICS 2019 dataset, which uniquely captures the influence of sociodemographic factors,
parenting styles, and children’s learning abilities in Bangladesh. This research highlights
the importance of leveraging local data to uncover insights specific to Bangladesh’s context
and social landscape, providing the foundation for targeted interventions. In addition to
applying ML techniques, our study integrates explainable AI (XAI) methods like SHAP
and LIME, which offer a novel transparent approach to understanding early childhood
learning difficulties in Bangladesh. By incorporating XAI methods, our approach not
only improves the interpretability of ML models but also identifies underlying causes of
learning difficulties. These findings offer valuable insights for policymaking to improve
early childhood education. The highlights of our objective are as follows:
• Employ statistical analysis to investigate the key factors influencing early learning
among children under the age of five;
• Apply different ML models to forecast learning difficulties in children based on the
selected features;
• Utilize XAI methods like SHAP and LIME to explain how different factors influence
children learning difficulties. These insights will help guide policies to improve
education and overall development in early childhood.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides a comprehensive
overview of the materials and methods used in this study. It includes details about the
dataset, statistical analysis, and ML algorithms that we employed and the criteria used for
evaluating performance. Section 3 presents the results and discussion. Section 4 presents a
comparison with previous works, while Section 5 concludes this study.
preprocessed the dataset to prepare it for statistical analysis and machine learning model
fit. Afterward,
we evaluated theweresults
evaluated
based the
onresults based on the
the performance performance
parameters. parameters.
Figure Figure
1 shows the 1
step-
shows the
by-step step-by-step
process involvedprocess involved
in analyzing in analyzing
the impact the factors
of various impact on
of children’s
various factors on
learning
children’s learning abilities, starting from data collection and preprocessing, moving
abilities, starting from data collection and preprocessing, moving through specific analytical
through
steps, andspecific
endinganalytical steps, andanalysis.
with an integrated ending with an integrated analysis.
Figure 1.
Figure 1. Workflow diagram for
Workflow diagram for analyzing
analyzing parenting
parenting practices
practices and
and sociodemographic
sociodemographic factors
factors on
on
children’s learning abilities.
children’s learning abilities.
have been recognized, and appropriate measures were considered to address its effects on
analysis and predictions.
Independent Variables
MICS Variables Variables Description Values Data Type
UCD2A Removed_privileges Took away privileges YES, NO Categorical
UCD2C Shook_child Shook child YES, NO Categorical
UCD2K Beat_ hard Beat child as hard as one could YES, NO Categorical
HL4 Sex Sex MALE, FEMALE Categorical
Richest, Fourth, Second,
windex5 Wealth_index Wealth index quintile Categorical
Poorest, Middle
Higher secondary+,
welevel Mother’s_education Mother’s education Primary, Secondary, Categorical
Pre-primary or none
UCD2H Called_dumb_lazy Called child dumb and lazy YES, NO Categorical
AN4 Child’s_weight Child’s weight (kilograms) 1.1–35.8 kg Numerical
WAP Weight_age_P Weight-for-age percentile 0.0–89.5 Numerical
Dependent Variables
MICS variables Variable Description Values Data Type
Compared with children of the
NO DIFFICULTY, HAS
UCF17 Learning_skill same age, child has difficulty Categorical
DIFFICULTY
learning things
Figure 2 presents six grouped bar charts comparing the count of children with and
without learning difficulties across various categories. Blue bars represent children without
learning difficulties, while red bars indicate children with learning difficulties. The charts
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 show differences in experiences and demographics, highlighting factors and patterns that
7 of 28
might contribute to learning difficulties.
Figure2.2.Analysis
Figure Analysisof
of categorical
categorical features.
features.
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 7 of 27
(a)
(b)
Figure
Figure 3.
3. Analysis
Analysis of
of numerical
numerical features
features (a)
(a) Child’s_weight
Child’s_weight and
and (b)
(b) Weight_age_P.
Weight_age_P.
2.3. Feature
2.3. Feature Importance
Importance
The Figure 4, derived using the RF model, highlights the most influential factors for
prediction of Learning_skill. “Weight_age_P” and “Child’s_weight” are the most signif-
icant features, showing the highest impact. “Mother’s_education” and “Wealth_index”
also contribute notably but to a lesser extent. Other factors such as “Sex”, “Shook_child”,
“Called_dumb_lazy”, “Removed_privileges”, and “Beat_hard” show relatively lower im-
portance in influencing the model’s output.
prediction of Learning_skill. “Weight_age_P” and “Child’s_weight” are the most signifi-
cant features, showing the highest impact. “Mother’s_education” and “Wealth_index”
also contribute notably but to a lesser extent. Other factors such as “Sex”, “Shook_child”,
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 “Called_dumb_lazy”, “Removed_privileges”, and “Beat_hard” show relatively lower im-
8 of 27
portance in influencing the model’s output.
Figure 4.
Figure Feature importance
4. Feature importance for
for predicting
predicting learning
learning skill.
skill.
Oversampling Technique) and reducing the number of samples in the majority class with
RandomUnderSampler [29,30]. This balancing made our analysis and modeling more
reliable as well as helped to prevent any biases that might result from one class being more
dominant than the others.
2.6. ML Models
Each ML model offers unique methodologies, algorithms, and mathematical formu-
lations. We employed traditional machine learning models combined with ensemble
techniques. A brief description of each model is presented below.
Decision trees (DT) are hierarchical structures that recursively split the data based
on informative features at each node, aiming to maximize information gain or minimize
impurity. At each node, the decision rule selects the attribute that best divides the data.
The process continues until a stopping criterion is met, resulting in leaf nodes representing
the final class predictions. The splitting criteria often include measures like Gini impurity
or information gain [32].
Random forests (RF) are ensemble learning methods that aggregate predictions from
multiple decision trees, each trained on random subsets of the data and features. By aver-
aging or voting the predictions of individual trees, random forests improve generalization
and reduce overfitting. Each decision tree in the forest operates independently, making
predictions based on its subset of the data [33].
The logistic regression (LRC) model predicts the probability of the positive class using
the logistic function. Logistic regression is a linear model used for binary classification,
estimating the probability that an instance belongs to a particular class. The logistic
function, also known as the sigmoid function, is used to map the output to a probability
value between 0 and 1. The model’s coefficients are estimated using maximum likelihood
estimation [34].
K-nearest neighbors (KNN) is a non-parametric classification algorithm that makes
predictions based on the majority class of its k nearest neighbors in the feature space. KNN
is simple yet effective, as it relies on local information to classify instances. The predicted
class for a new instance is determined by a majority vote or weighted vote of its nearest
neighbors [35].
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 10 of 27
Classifier Parameters
DT Max_depth = 6
n_estimators = 42
RF
random_state = 42
LRC random_state = 42
n_neighbors = 5,
KNN
metric = minkowski, p = 2
n_estimators = 100,
GB learning_rate = 1.0,
max_depth = 5
booster = gbtree, max_depth = 6,
XGB gamma = 0, min_child_weight = 1,
subsample = 1.0, colsample_bytree = 1.0
𝑇𝑃
Recall × Precision DescribeRate
howof correct
precise positive
and robust a
F1-score 2× × 100
Precision Recall + Precision 100 predictions
classifier isamong all
𝑇𝑃 𝐹𝑃
predicted positive cases
Receiver operating characteristic area under curve (ROC AUC): The ROC AUC is used
Rate of correctly identified
to measure the area under the receiver𝑇𝑃 operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which plots
Recall 100 positive cases among all
𝑇𝑃 against
the true-positive rate (sensitivity) 𝐹𝑁 the false-positive rate (1-specificity) for different
actual positive cases
threshold values [39]. It quantifies the model’s ability to discriminate between positive and
negative classes across all𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙
possible𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛
thresholds. The ROC Describe
AUC score howranges
precisefrom
and0 to 1,
F1-score 2 100
𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 better
where a score closer to 1 indicates 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛
model performance. robust a classifier is
K-fold cross-validation: We use the K-fold cross-validation method to assess the
performance and validity
Receiver operating of an ML model
characteristic [40]. We
area under divide
curve (ROC theAUC):
dataset
Theinto k equal
ROC AUCparts
is
or folds. The model is then trained and validated k times, using a different
used to measure the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which fold as the
validation set and the remaining K −
plots the true-positive rate (sensitivity) against the false-positive rate (1-specificity) for K
1 folds as the training set. This process generates
performance
different scores,
threshold which
values are It
[39]. averaged to produce
quantifies a single
the model’s performance
ability estimate.
to discriminate K-fold
between
cross-validation helps reduce overfitting and efficient use of data. This method provides a
robust evaluation by leveraging various data subsets for training and validation.
middle quintiles but not in the fourth. Lower maternal education also increases the
odds of learning difficulties, though not all levels are statistically significant;
• Called child dumb/lazy: The odds of learning difficulties for children who were called
dumb or lazy are 1.077 times higher compared to those who were not, but this effect is
not statistically significant (p = 0.376), with a confidence interval of 0.913 to 1.271;
• Weight-for-age percentile: The weight-for-age percentile does not show a statistically
significant association with learning difficulties (OR = 1.000, p = 0.963), suggesting it
has a negligible impact;
• Child’s weight: Lower child weight is associated with slightly reduced odds of learning
difficulties (OR = 0.954), and this effect is statistically significant (p = 0.040).
Correlationbetween
Figure6.6.Correlation
Figure betweenchild’s
child’sweight,
weight,weight-for-age
weight-for-agepercentile,
percentile,and
andlearning
learningskill
skillcompared
compared
to others.
to others.
3.2. ML Model Performance
3.2. ML Model Performance
These models were chosen to effectively capture the complex and multi-faceted nature
These models were chosen to effectively capture the complex and multi-faceted na-
of the dataset, which includes various socio-economic, health, and educational indicators
ture of the dataset, which includes various socio-economic, health, and educational indi-
relevant to learning difficulties. KNN was used for its simplicity and effectiveness in
cators relevant
handling to learning
non-linear difficulties.
relationships KNN
within was used
the dataset. forwas
LRC its simplicity
chosen forand effectiveness
its interpretability
inand
handling
ability non-linear relationships
to model linear withinDT
relationships. theand
dataset. LRCselected
RF were was chosen for its
for their interpret-in
flexibility
ability and ability to model linear relationships. DT and RF were selected
managing hierarchical data, while GB and XGB were employed to improve predictive for their
accuracy through their iterative error-correcting process and capacity to handle complex
interactions in the data. By utilizing these models, the study aimed to validate its findings
across different ML algorithms, ensuring the robustness of the results within the context of
the MICS 2019 dataset.
Figure 7 presents a comprehensive comparison of several machine learning algorithms
applied to the MICS 2019 dataset for predicting child learning abilities. We evaluated
the models using various performance metrics and assessed them through 10-fold cross-
validation. Furthermore, we analyzed the performance metrics of various classification
models to assess their effectiveness in predicting child learning difficulties. The DT model
demonstrated moderate performance, with an accuracy of 0.70, precision of 0.67, and recall
of 0.80, resulting in an F1-score of 0.73. In contrast, the KNN model showed better results
with an accuracy of 0.86, a high recall of 0.97, and an F1-score of 0.87. LRC performed
ated the models using various performance metrics and assessed them through 10-fold
cross-validation. Furthermore, we analyzed the performance metrics of various classifica-
tion models to assess their effectiveness in predicting child learning difficulties. The DT
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 model demonstrated moderate performance, with an accuracy of 0.70, precision of 0.67, 15 of 27
and recall of 0.80, resulting in an F1-score of 0.73. In contrast, the KNN model showed
better results with an accuracy of 0.86, a high recall of 0.97, and an F1-score of 0.87. LRC
similarly
performed across mostacross
similarly metrics, with
most valueswith
metrics, aroundvalues0.69. The RF
around model
0.69. The RF performed
model per- well,
achieving an accuracy of 0.91, precision of 0.89, recall of 0.93, and an F1-score
formed well, achieving an accuracy of 0.91, precision of 0.89, recall of 0.93, and an F1-score of 0.91. GB and
XGB yielded
of 0.91. GB andthe XGB
best results,
yielded achieving exceptional
the best results, achievingperformance
exceptionalmetrics such asmetrics
performance accuracy
ofsuch
0.95,asprecision
accuracy of of0.95, precision
0.96–0.97, of 0.96–0.97,
recall of 0.93, andrecallanofF1-score
0.93, andofan0.95.
F1-score
Theseof 0.95. These
models also
models
had highalsoNPV had
andhigh
ROC NPV AUCandscores
ROC AUCof 0.93scores
and of 0.93
0.95, and 0.95, respectively.
respectively. This analysis Thissuggests
anal-
ysisGB
that suggests
and XGB thatare
GBtheandmost
XGBeffective
are the most effective
models models
for this for this application,
application, outperforming outper-other
forming other classifiers in nearly all metrics. The results show how
classifiers in nearly all metrics. The results show how well different ML models predict well different ML
models predict
learning learning
difficulties difficulties
in children. in children.their
It compares It compares their performance
performance using various using var-
measures
ious measures that assess how accurately the models identify children
that assess how accurately the models identify children with and without difficulties and with and without
difficulties
how balanced and howpredictions
their balanced their
are. predictions
RF, XGB, KNN, are. RF,
andXGB, KNN, and
GB perform veryGB perform
well, with very
results
well, with results close to perfect, meaning they make highly reliable
close to perfect, meaning they make highly reliable predictions and are good at correctly predictions and are
good at correctly identifying both children with and without learning
identifying both children with and without learning difficulties. In contrast, models likedifficulties. In con-
trast,
DT andmodels like DT and
LRC perform LRC perform
slightly slightly less
less effectively. Theireffectively. Their
predictions arepredictions
still usefularebutstill
less
useful but less consistent and accurate compared to the top-performing models.
consistent and accurate compared to the top-performing models.
Figure7.7.Performance
Figure Performance metrics
metrics of various
various ML
MLalgorithms
algorithmsfor
forpredicting
predictingchild
childlearning
learning difficulties.
difficulties.
The
TheMLMLmodels
models in
in this
this study were
were trained
trainedononaaworkstation
workstationequipped
equipped with
with anan Intel
Intel
Core
Corei3i3CPU
CPU@@ 2.3
2.3 GHz and 12 12 GB
GBofofRAM.
RAM.Training
Trainingtimes
timesvaried
varied across
across models,
models, reflecting
reflecting
their
theircomplexity
complexity andand the
the chosen hyperparameters.
hyperparameters.The TheTable
Table6 6shows
showsthat thatthethe
DTDT model
model
was
wasthe
thefastest,
fastest,with
with aa training time
time of
of 0.06
0.06ssand
andaatesting
testingtime
timeofof0.0007
0.0007s. s. Following
Following DT,DT,
LRChad
LRC hadthe
thebest
besttesting
testingtime
timeatat0.0005
0.0005 s,
s, and
and XGB
XGB came next with a testingtesting time
time of
of0.0094
0.0094 s.
s. Other
Other algorithms,
algorithms, whilerequiring
while requiringmore
moretime,
time, still provided
providedvaluable
valuableresults
resultswith good
with good
accuracy and performance. These training times demonstrate the computational efficiency
of each model within the constraints of the available resources, allowing for effective model
evaluation and tuning without significant delays.
Furthermore, the Table 7 presents the performance metrics of the XGB model, evalu-
ated using 1- to 10-fold cross-validation for predicting child learning difficulties. Each fold
displayed consistent results, with high accuracy precision, recall, F1-score, NPV, and ROC
AUC score. Overall, the table highlights the robust performance of the XGB model across
multiple evaluation metrics.
Table 7. K-fold cross-validation performance metrics for XGB model predicting child learning
difficulties.
The confusion matrices in Figure 8 generated by the six different ML models DT, RF,
LRC, KNN, GB, and XGB provide key insights into their effectiveness in predicting early
child learning difficulties, where the outcomes are classified as either “NO DIFFICULTY”
(0) or “HAS DIFFICULTY” (1). The XGB model stands out as a very good performer,
with the highest number of true positives (1168) and true negatives (1208), coupled with
the lowest number of false positives (36) and false negatives (79), indicating its high
accuracy in identifying both children who have and those who do not have learning
difficulties. Similarly, the GB model demonstrates strong performance, with slightly fewer
true positives (1170), more true negatives (1212), and very few false positives (32), making
it another reliable option. The RF model also performs well, with a favorable balance of
true positives (1154) and true negatives (1100), though it has a moderate number of false
positives (144) and false negatives (93), indicating some room for improvement in reducing
misclassifications. The KNN model, despite its strong identification of true positives (1199),
struggles with a higher number of false positives (324), making it less reliable in correctly
identifying children without learning difficulties. The LRC, however, has a significant
number of false negatives (397), posing a risk of under-detection. The DT model, with a
substantial number of false positives (500), indicates a tendency to over-predict learning
difficulties. Overall, XGB and GB emerge as the most effective models, offering the best
balance between accurately predicting both classes and minimizing errors.
The ROC AUC curves in Figure 9 present a comparative analysis of six ML models
applied to a dataset on child learning difficulties. The XGB and GB models, indicated by
the orange and purple curves, respectively, both achieved the highest ROC AUC of 0.95,
demonstrating their exceptional ability to differentiate between classes. The RF model,
represented by the red curve, also performed well with an ROC AUC of 0.91, though it
lagged slightly behind XGB and GB. In contrast, the DT, LRC, and KNN models, represented
by blue, cyan, and green curves, respectively, each achieved an ROC AUC of 0.70, 0.69, and
0.86. This suggests that these models are less effective compared to the top-performing
XGB, GB, and RF models. Overall, the analysis indicates that XGB and GB are the most
represented by the red curve, also performed well with an ROC AUC of 0.91, though it
represented by the red curve, also performed well with an ROC AUC of 0.91, though it
lagged slightly behind XGB and GB. In contrast, the DT, LRC, and KNN models, repre-
lagged slightly behind XGB and GB. In contrast, the DT, LRC, and KNN models, repre-
sented by blue, cyan, and green curves, respectively, each achieved an ROC AUC of 0.70,
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20
sented by blue, cyan, and green curves, respectively, each achieved an ROC AUC of 0.70,
0.69, and 0.86. This suggests that these models are less effective compared to the top-per- 17 of 27
0.69, and 0.86. This suggests that these models are less effective compared to the top-per-
forming XGB, GB, and RF models. Overall, the analysis indicates that XGB and GB are the
forming XGB, GB, and RF models. Overall, the analysis indicates that XGB and GB are the
most effective models for predicting child learning difficulties, with RF following closely
most effective
effective modelsmodels
forLRC,for predicting
predicting child child learning
learning difficulties,
difficulties, with RFwith RF following
following closely
closely behind,
behind, while DT, and KNN exhibit lower classification performance.
behind,
while DT,while
LRC,DT,
andLRC,
KNNand KNNlower
exhibit exhibit lower classification
classification performance.
performance.
Figure 8. Confusion metrics for various machine learning algorithms for child learning difficulty
Figure 8. Confusion
Figure 8. Confusion metrics
metrics for
for various
various machine
machine learning
learning algorithms
algorithms for
for child
child learning
learning difficulty
difficulty
prediction.
prediction.
prediction.
Figure 9. ROC AUC Curves for Various ML Algorithms for Child learning difficulties prediction.
Figure10.
Figure SHAPsummary
10.SHAP summaryplot
plotshowing
showing the
the influence
influence of
of input
input features
featureson
onchildren
childrenlearning
learningdifficul-
diffi-
ties.
culties.
Furthermore, the SHAP waterfall plots reveal how various factors contribute to pre-
Furthermore, the SHAP waterfall plots reveal how various factors contribute to pre-
dicting the learning skill difficulties for two specific children. Both plots emphasize the
dicting the learning skill difficulties for two specific children. Both plots emphasize the
strong influence of parenting practices, physical health, and socio-economic factors on the
strong influence of parenting practices, physical health, and socio-economic factors on the
likelihood of learning difficulties in children.
likelihood of learning difficulties in children.
In Figure 11, the model predicts a higher probability that the child has learning
In Figure 11, the model predicts a higher probability that the child has learning diffi-
difficulties, as the output is f(x) = 1.229. The primary factors contributing to this prediction
culties, as the output is f(x) = 1.229. The primary factors contributing to this prediction are
are the following:
the following:
• • Beating
Beating hard(YES
hard (YES= =1)1)significantly
significantlyincreases
increasesthe
thelikelihood
likelihoodofoflearning
learningdifficulties
difficulties
(+0.51). Harsh physical punishment is strongly correlated with
(+0.51). Harsh physical punishment is strongly correlated with emotional and emotional andcogni-
cogni-
tivechallenges
tive challenges inin children
children (Beating
(Beatingoror physically punishing
physically a child
punishing is a crime
a child is a punish-
crime
able by law in many countries. Such abusive behavior has been proven to severely
hinder a child’s emotional, cognitive, and educational development, including their
learning capabilities);
• Removal of privileges (YES = 1) adds positively to the prediction (+0.39), as this
negative disciplinary action can affect a child’s mental well-being and learning ability;
• Shaking the child (NO = 2) contributes negatively (−0.34), implying that the absence
of shaking reduces the likelihood of learning difficulties;
• Sex (MALE = 1) increases the likelihood of difficulties (+0.2), indicating that male
children may face a higher probability of learning issues in this dataset;
• Mother’s education (Primary = 1) has a moderate positive influence (+0.18), showing
that lower maternal education correlates with a higher risk of learning difficulties;
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 19 of 27
• Weight–age percentile (0.8) and called dumb/lazy (YES = 1) have smaller positive
contributions (+0.12 and +0.1, respectively), indicating that poor physical health and
verbal abuse contribute to learning difficulties;
• Child’s weight (11.9) and wealth index (Second = 2) have minimal effects, with wealth
index showing a slight negative impact (−0.02), suggesting that lower socio-economic
status marginally increases learning difficulties.
Again, in Figure 12, the model predicts a lower probability of the child having learning
difficulties, as the output is f(x) = −2.23. The primary factors contributing to this prediction
are the following:
• Removed privileges (NO = 2) significantly reduce the likelihood of learning difficulties
(−0.77). This suggests that not using this negative disciplinary tactic supports a
positive outcome;
• Child’s weight (13.6) and weight–age percentile (29.9) both have substantial negative
contributions (−0.66 and −0.48, respectively), implying that good physical health
strongly correlates with better cognitive outcomes;
• Shaking the child (NO = 2) also contributes negatively (−0.44), reinforcing that avoid-
ing physical mistreatment reduces learning challenges
• Sex (MALE = 1) has a smaller positive impact (+0.28), suggesting that being male
slightly increases the likelihood of learning difficulties, though its effect is less signifi-
cant in this prediction;
• Called dumb/lazy (NO = 2) contributes negatively (−0.13), indicating that not verbally
labeling the child helps reduce the likelihood of learning difficulties;
• Mother’s education (None = 0) and wealth index (Second = 2) provide smaller positive
and negative influences (+0.12 and −0.11, respectively), showing a marginal effect of
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 socio-economic and educational factors; 20 of 28
• Beating hard (NO = 2) has a slight negative contribution (−0.07), suggesting that
avoiding physical punishment supports lower chances of learning difficulties.
Figure11.
Figure SHAPwaterfall
11.SHAP waterfallplot
plotfor
forpredicting
predictingthe
thepresence
presenceof
oflearning
learningdifficulties
difficultiesin
inaachild.
child.
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 20 of 27
Figure 11. SHAP waterfall plot for predicting the presence of learning difficulties in a child.
Figure12.
Figure SHAPwaterfall
12.SHAP waterfallplot
plotfor
forpredicting
predictingthe
theabsence
absenceof
oflearning
learningdifficulties
difficultiesin
inaachild.
child.
Figure 13. LIME plot explaining prediction of the absence of learning difficulties in a child.
Figure 13. LIME plot explaining prediction of the absence of learning difficulties in a child.
Furthermore, in Figure 14, the model predicts with a high probability (1.00) that the
Furthermore, in Figure 14, the model predicts with a high probability (1.00) that the
child has learning difficulties. The key contributing factors to this prediction are as follows:
child has learning difficulties. The key contributing factors to this prediction are as fol-
• The factors of the child’s weight (11.28) and weight–age percentile (1.30) significantly
lows:
contribute to the prediction of learning difficulties because the child’s low weight
• The factors of the child’s weight (11.28) and weight–age percentile (1.30) significantly
and weight-for-age percentile suggest poor health, which is often associated with
contribute to the prediction of learning difficulties because the child’s low weight and
developmental challenges;
weight-for-age percentile suggest poor health, which is often associated with devel-
•opmental
The factors like removing privileges (YES = 1) along with wealth index (Poorest = 1)
challenges;
conditions are linked toprivileges
• The factors like removing a higher likelihood of learning
(YES = 1) along difficulties;
with wealth index (Poorest = 1)
•conditions
The mother’s education
are linked (Primary
to a higher = 1) factor
likelihood slightly
of learning influences the prediction, as a
difficulties;
• Thelower leveleducation
mother’s of maternal education
(Primary is often
= 1) factorassociated with an increased
slightly influences risk of learning
the prediction, as a
lower level of maternal education is often associated with an increased risk of learning
difficulties;
•difficulties;
The factor sex (FEMALE = 2) contributes to the “No difficulties” prediction in this
• Thecase;
factor sex (FEMALE = 2) contributes to the “No difficulties” prediction in this
•case;
Negative parenting behaviors: Shaking the child (NO = 2) and beating hard
• Negative
(NO =parenting
2) slightlybehaviors: Shaking
decreases the the child
likelihood (NO = 2)
of learning and beating
difficulties, buthard (NO
calling the= 2)
child
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 slightly decreases the likelihood of learning difficulties, but calling the22 child of 28
dumb/lazy (YES = 1) contributes to the prediction of have difficulties, reinforcing the
dumb/lazy (YES = 1) contributes to the prediction of have difficulties, reinforcing the
model’s overall prediction.
model’s overall prediction.
Figure 14. LIME plot explaining prediction of the presence of learning difficulties in a child.
Figure 14. LIME plot explaining prediction of the presence of learning difficulties in a child.
ML Statistical
Ref. Findings Data Source XAI Uses ML Performance
Application Analysis
Identified factors Data from
impacting 6514 students over
J48 achieved
[8] academic 11 years at a J48 algorithm ✕ ✕
82.4% accuracy
performance using public university
ML algorithms in Oman
RF classifier
achieved
Identified risk 2018–2019 NSCH Logistic
85.5% accuracy,
factors for ADHD data from regression and
[9] ✓ ✕ sensitivity of
in children using 45,779 children eight ML
84.4%, specificity
ML classification aged 3–17 years classifiers
of 86.4%, and
AUC of 0.94
Predicted Australian child RF model
RF, XGB, DT,
depression in and adolescent achieved
and Gaussian
[10] children and responses from ✕ ✕ 95% accuracy
naive Bayes
adolescents using 6310 participants and
algorithms
ML models (2013–2014) 99% precision
Evaluated ML LR model
techniques for Data from achieved
RF, ANN, SVM,
predicting 5084 students sensitivity of
[11] DT, NB, and LR ✕ ✕
academic aged 10–17 in the 94.3%, specificity
models
performance West Bank of 96.3%, and
factors AUC of 99.3%
ANN achieved
94.24% accuracy,
Improved early Obtained from precision 89.80%
RF, KNN, XGB,
ASD diagnosis UCI Repository; recall 92%,
[15] SVM, DT, NB, ✕ ✕
using machine 292 children and F1-score, 91%,
LR, and ANN
learning 704 adults specificity 95.05%,
and AUC of
93.84%
From UCI ML LR achieved
Enhanced toddler
Repository; SVM, RF, LR, 100% accuracy,
ASD diagnosis
[16] 1054 toddlers DT, KNN, and ✕ ✕ 100% precision,
using machine
(12–36 months) via NB 100% recall, and
learning.
ASDTests app 100% F1-score
Identified key XGB classifier
factors and DT, LR, KNN, achieved
predicted learning Refined dataset of RF, XGB, GB 95% accuracy,
difficulties in 13,274 samples algorithms, and 97% precision,
This work ✓ ✓
Bangladeshi and 19 features SHAP and 93% recall,
children under from MICS 2019 LIME 95% F1-score,
5 years old using explanations 93% NPV, and
ML models 95% ROC
5. Policy Implications
Figure 15 illustrates a structured framework that outlines a data-driven approach for
predicting and addressing early childhood learning difficulties. It integrates family data
collected by NGOs or health organizations, focusing on health, nutrition, family guidance,
education, and socioeconomic status. Data were entered, processed, and analyzed through
ML models to make predictions. XAI techniques were applied to identify key factors
influencing learning difficulties, enhancing the interpretability of results. The identified
learning gaps inform targeted policy implications and interventions, such as early child-
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 24 of 27
hood education, health services, parenting support, nutritional programs, and economic
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 assistance. This framework provides actionable insights to address disparities and 25 of 28
improve
educational outcomes through informed policymaking.
Figure 15.
Figure 15. AA data-driven
data-drivenframework
frameworkfor
forearly
earlychildhood
childhoodlearning
learningdifficulties prediction
difficulties and
prediction preven-
and preven-
tion policy
tion policy implications.
implications.
The following
followingsteps
stepswill
will help
help in in policy
policy implications
implications for addressing
for addressing childchild learning
learning dis-
disabilities:
abilities:
•• Health
Healthand andNutrition
NutritionInterventions:
Interventions:To Tosupport
supportchildren’s
children’shealth
healthand
anddevelopment,
development,
ititisisessential
essentialtotoprovide
providenutritional
nutritionalsupplements
supplementsororbalanced
balancedmeals
mealstotopromote
promote proper
proper
growth. Alongside this, organizing regular health check-ups
growth. Alongside this, organizing regular health check-ups and immunization and immunization
drives
driveshelpshelpsprevent
preventillnesses
illnessesand
andensures
ensuresoverall
overallwell-being.
well-being.Additionally,
Additionally,educating
educating
parents on the importance of maintaining a healthy diet and hygiene creates a strong
parents on the importance of maintaining a healthy diet and hygiene creates a strong
foundation for sustained child health;
foundation for sustained child health;
• Parenting Support: Workshops should be conducted to raise awareness of early
• Parentingcare,
childhood Support: Workshops
provide counseling should be conducted
for behavioral issues,toand
raise awareness
encourage of early
activities
childhood
that care,parent–child
strengthen provide counseling
bonds; for behavioral issues, and encourage activities that
• strengthen parent–child bonds;
Education Enhancements: Remedial or special education programs should be imple-
• mented
Education to address the individual
Enhancements: learning
Remedial or needs
specialofeducation
children. At the sameshould
programs time, teach-
be im-
ers should betotrained
plemented inthe
address inclusive education
individual practices
learning needsand early detection
of children. At theofsame
learning
time,
challenges, ensuring that resources are accessible for children with special
teachers should be trained in inclusive education practices and early detection of learn- needs;
• Socio-economic Support:that
ing challenges, ensuring Scholarships
resourcesor financial
are aid for
accessible should be provided
children to under-
with special needs;
privileged families, and they should be linked to social welfare schemes to improve
their living standards. This would be complemented by ensuring access to technology
and learning aids in under-resourced communities, promoting equal opportunities
for all children.
Algorithms 2025, 18, 20 25 of 27
6. Conclusions
This study conducted both statistical and ML approaches to analyze the learning
abilities of children under five years old, using the MICS 2019 dataset. The findings show
that parental education, income, and parenting practices strongly affect children’s learning
outcomes. Additional factors contribute to learning difficulties, such as deprivation, intense
physical punishment, and verbal reprimands. Socioeconomic factors exacerbate these
issues, particularly urban living and poorer households. We then applied ML models to
predict these difficulties and found that the GB and XGB classifiers performed best, achiev-
ing high accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-scores. Moreover, these findings underscore the
importance of addressing socioeconomic disparities and improving parenting practices
to reduce learning difficulties. Also, XAI techniques like SHAP and LIME provided more
information about how different factors affect these predictions, which makes the results
easier to understand and more open. The dataset may not have adequately captured some
important variables, which is one of the study’s limitations. Additionally, the findings are
specific to Bangladesh and may not directly apply to other socio-economic and cultural
contexts without further validation. Despite these limitations, the study emphasizes the
importance of addressing socioeconomic disparities and promoting positive parenting prac-
tices to improve learning outcomes. The insights gained here can inform targeted policy
interventions to reduce learning difficulties and foster comprehensive child development.
In the future, researchers should focus on using longitudinal datasets to determine more
factors to obtain a better picture of more complex factors, making sure that the results are
valid to make them more useful.
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