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ISTUDY
MODERN BUSINESS
ANALYTICS
ISTUDY
ISTUDY
MODERN BUSINESS
ANALYTICS
Practical Data Science for Decision Making
Matt Taddy
Amazon, Inc.
Leslie Hendrix
University of South Carolina
Matthew C. Harding
University of California, Irvine
ISTUDY
Final PDF to printer
All credits appearing on page or at the end of the book are considered to be an extension of the copyright page.
The Internet addresses listed in the text were accurate at the time of publication. The inclusion of a website
does not indicate an endorsement by the authors or McGraw Hill Education, and McGraw Hill Education
does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented at these sites.
mheducation.com/highered
ISTUDY
BRIEF CONTENTS
1 Regression. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 Uncertainty Quantification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
4 Classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
vi
ISTUDY
CONTENTS
Guided Tour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Practical Data Science for Decision Making xi
An Introductory Example xii
Machine Learning xiv
Computing with R xv
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
1 Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Linear Regression 3
Residuals 15
Logistic Regression 21
Likelihood and Deviance 26
Time Series 30
Spatial Data 46
2 Uncertainty Quantification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Frequentist Uncertainty 56
False Discovery Rate Control 67
The Bootstrap 72
More on Bootstrap Sampling 86
Bayesian Inference 91
3 Regularization and Selection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
Out-of-Sample Performance 101
Building Candidate Models 108
Model Selection 130
Uncertainty Quantification for the Lasso 144
4 Classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Nearest Neighbors 152
Probability, Cost, and Classification 158
Classification via Regression 160
Multinomial Logistic Regression 163
ISTUDY
viii Contents
ISTUDY
Contents ix
Bibliography 419
Glossary 424
Acronyms 433
Index 435
ISTUDY
PREFACE
ISTUDY
GUIDED TOUR
This book is based on the Business Data Science text by Taddy (2019), which was itself developed
as part of the MBA data science curriculum at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
This new adaptation creates a more accessible and course-ready textbook, and includes a major
expansion of the examples and content (plus an appendix tutorial on computing with R). Visit Con-
nect for digital assignments, code, datasets, and additional resources.
ISTUDY
xii Guided Tour
It is also important to recognize that data science can be learned only by doing. This means
writing the code to run analysis routines on really messy data. We will use the R scripting lan-
guage for all of our examples. All example code and data is available online, and one of the
most important skills you will get out of this book will be an advanced education in this pow-
erful and widely used statistical software. For those who are completely new to R, we have also
included an extensive R primer. The skills you learn here will also prepare you well for learning
how to program in other languages, such as Python, which you will likely encounter in your
business analysis career.
This is a book about how to do modern business analytics. We will lay out a set of core
principles and best practices that come from statistics, machine learning, and economics. You
will be working through many real data analysis examples as you learn by doing. It is a book
designed to prepare scientists, engineers, and business professionals to use data science to
improve their decisions.
An Introductory Example
Before diving into the core material, we will work through a simple finance example to illus-
trate the difference between data processing or description and a deeper business analysis.
Consider the graph in Figure 0.1. This shows seven years of monthly returns for stocks in the
S&P 500 index (a return is the difference between the current and previous price divided by
the prior value). Each line ranging from bright yellow to dark red denotes an individual stock’s
return series. Their weighted average—the value of the S&P 500—is marked with a bold line.
Returns on three-month U.S. treasury bills are in gray.
This is a fancy plot. It looks cool, with lots of different lines. It is the sort of plot that you
might see on a computer screen in a TV ad for some online brokerage platform. If only I had
that information, I’d be rich!
S&P500
0.5
Return
0.0
–0.5
FIGURE 0.1 A fancy plot: monthly stock returns for members of the S&P 500 and their average (the bold
line). What can you learn?
ISTUDY
Guided Tour xiii
But what can you actually learn from Figure 0.1? You can see that returns do tend to
bounce around near zero (although the long-term average is reliably much greater than zero).
You can also pick out periods of higher volatility (variance) where the S&P 500 changes more
from month to month and the individual stock returns around it are more dispersed. That’s
about it. You don’t learn why these periods are more volatile or when they will occur in the
future. More important, you can’t pull out useful information about any individual stock. There
is a ton of data on the graph but little useful information.
Instead of plotting raw data, let’s consider a simple market model that relates individual
stock returns to the market average. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) regresses the
returns of an individual asset onto a measure of overall market returns, as shown here:
rjt = αj + βjmt + εjt (0.1)
The output rjt is equity j return at time t. The input mt is a measure of the average return—the
“market”—at time t. We take mt as the return on the S&P 500 index that weights 500 large
companies according to their market capitalization (the total value of their stock). Finally, εjt is
an error that has mean zero and is uncorrelated with the market.
Equation (0.1) is the first regression model in this book. You’ll see many more. This is a
simple linear regression that should be familiar to most readers. The Greek letters define a line
relating each individual equity return to the market, as shown in Figure 0.2. A small βj, near zero,
indicates an asset with low market sensitivity. In the extreme, fixed-income assets like treasury
bills have βj = 0. On the other hand, a βj > 1 indicates a stock that is more volatile than the mar-
ket, typically meaning growth and higher-risk stocks. The αj is free money: assets with αj > 0 are
adding value regardless of wider market movements, and those with αj < 0 destroy value.
Figure 0.3 represents each stock “ticker” in the two-dimensional space implied by the mar-
ket model’s fit on the seven years of data in Figure 0.1. The tickers are sized proportional to
each firm’s market capitalization. The two CAPM parameters—[α, β]—tell you a huge amount
about the behavior and performance of individual assets. This picture immediately allows you
to assess market sensitivity and arbitrage opportunities. For example, the big tech stocks of
Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL)
all have market sensitivity β values close to one. However, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple
generated more money independent of the market over this time period compared to Micro-
soft and Google (which have nearly identical α values and are overlapped on the plot). Note
0.3
Equity return
0.1
−0.1
−0.3
FIGURE 0.2 A scatterplot of a single stock’s returns against market returns, with the fitted regression
line for the model of Equation (0.1) shown in red.
ISTUDY
xiv Guided Tour
FB
0.015
AMZN
AAPL
0.010
V
Alpha
BA
AMGN
DIS
0.005
T
PEP JNJ PFE GOOG
MSFT
WFC GE
PG KO
WMT JPM
0.000
CVX
IBM XOM
ORCL BAC
CSCO
FIGURE 0.3 Stocks positioned according to their fitted market model, where α is money you make
regardless of what the market does and β summarizes sensitivity to market movements. The tickers are sized
proportional to market capitalization. Production change alpha to α and beta to β in the plot axis labels.
that Facebook’s CAPM parameters are estimated from a shorter time period, since it did not
have its IPO until May of 2012. Some of the older technology firms, such as Oracle (ORCL),
Cisco (CSCO), and IBM, appear to have destroyed value over this period (negative alpha).
Such information can be used to build portfolios that maximize mean returns and minimize
variance in the face of uncertain future market conditions. It can also be used in strategies
like pairs-trading where you find two stocks with similar betas and buy the higher alpha while
“shorting” the other.
CAPM is an old tool in financial analysis, but it serves as a great illustration of what to strive
toward in practical data science. An interpretable model translates raw data into information that
is directly relevant to decision making. The challenge in data science is that the data you’ll be
working with will be larger and less structured (e.g., it will include text and image data). Moreover,
CAPM is derived from assumptions of efficient market theory, and in many applications you won’t
have such a convenient simplifying framework on hand. But the basic principles remain the same:
you want to turn raw data into useful information that has direct relevance to business policy.
Machine Learning
Machine learning (ML) is the field of using algorithms to automatically detect and predict pat-
terns in complex data. The rise of machine learning is a major driver behind data science and a
big part of what differentiates today’s analyses from those of the past. ML is closely related to
modern statistics, and indeed many of the best ideas in ML have come from statisticians. But
whereas statisticians have often focused on model inference—on understanding the parameters
of their models (e.g., testing on individual coefficients in a regression)—the ML community
has historically been more focused on the single goal of maximizing predictive performance
(i.e., predicting future values of some response of interest, like sales or prices).
ISTUDY
Discovering Diverse Content Through
Random Scribd Documents
several doubts and cases. A minister that is young, raw, or ignorant,
(yea, the best,) may be a learner while he is a teacher: but he that is
a learner maketh use so far of the gifts of others. And indeed all
teachers in the world make use of the gifts of others; for all teach
what they learn from others.
2. For method; it is lawful to learn that as well as matter from
another. Christ taught his disciples a method of prayer; and other men
may open that method to us. All tutors teach their pupils method as
well as matter; for method is needful to the due understanding and
using of the matter. A method of divinity, a method of preaching, and
a method of praying may be taught a preacher by word, and may be
written or printed for his use.
3. For words, 1. There is no more prohibition in God's word, against
learning or using another man's words, than his method or matter.
Therefore it is not unlawful. 2. A tutor or senior minister may teach
the Scripture words to a pupil or junior minister; yea, and may set
them together and compose him a sermon or prayer out of Scripture
in its words. (For he that may use an ill-composed Scripture form of
his own gathering, may use a well-composed form of another's). 3. All
the books in our libraries are forms of words; and it is lawful sure to
use some of all those words which we read; or else our books would
be a snare and limitation to our language. 4. All preachers ordinarily
use citations, testimonies, &c. in other men's words. 5. All ministers
use psalms in the metre of other men's composing (and usually
imposing too). And there is no more prohibition against using other
men's words in a prayer, than in a psalm. 6. Almost all ministers use
other men's gifts and form of words, in reading the Scriptures, in their
vulgar tongues: for God did not write them by his apostles and
prophets in English, French, Dutch, &c. but in Hebrew, Chaldee, and
Greek; therefore the wording them in English, &c. is a human form of
words: and few ministers think they are bound to translate all the
Bible themselves, lest they use other men's words or abilities. 7. If a
young minister that can pray but weakly, hear more apt expressions
and sentences in another minister's prayers, than his own are, he may
afterward make use of those sentences and expressions. And if of one
sentence, why not of two or ten, when God hath not forbidden it? So
also in preaching. 8. It is lawful to read another man's epistles or
sermons in the church, as the primitive churches did by Clement's and
some others. 9. An imposition may be so severe, that we shall not use
our own words, unless we will use some of other men's. 10. All
churches almost in the world, have consented in the use of creeds,
confessions, and prayers, and psalms, in the words of others.
But yet, 1. No minister must on these pretences stifle his own gifts,
and grow negligent; 2. Nor consent to church tyranny or papal
usurpations; 3. Nor do that which tendeth to eat out seriousness in
the worship of God, and turn all into dead imagery or formality.
Answ. There are so few sober and serious christians that ever made
a doubt of this, that I will not bestow many words to prove it.
1. That which is not forbidden is lawful. But church prayer without a
premeditated or prescribed form of words is not forbidden (by God);
therefore (as to God's laws) it is not unlawful.
2. To express holy desires understandingly, orderly, seriously, and in
apt expressions, is lawful praying. But all this may be done without a
set form of words; therefore to pray without a set form of words may
be lawful.
3. The consent of the universal church, and the experience of godly
men, are arguments so strong, as are not to be made light of.
4. To which Scripture instances may be added.
Quest. LXXVIII. Whether are set forms of words, or free praying without
them, the better way? And what are the commodities and
incommodities of each way?
Answ. I will first answer the latter question, because the former
dependeth on it.
1. The commodities of a set form of words, and the discommodities
of free praying, are these following.
1. In a time of dangerous heresy which hath infected the pastors, a
set form of prescribed words tendeth to keep the church, and the
consciences of the joiners, from such infection, offence, and guilt.
2. When ministers are so weak as to dishonour God's worship by
their unapt, and slovenly, and unsound expressions, prescribed or set
forms which are well composed, are some preservative and cure.
When free praying leaveth the church under this inconvenience.
3. When ministers by faction, passion, or corrupt interests, are apt
to put these vices into their prayers, to the injury of others, and of the
cause and church of God, free praying cherisheth this, or giveth it
opportunity, which set forms do restrain.
4. Concordant set forms do serve for the exactest concord in the
churches, that all at once may speak the same things.
5. They are needful to some weak ministers that cannot do so well
without them.
6. They somewhat prevent the laying of the reputation of religious
worship upon the minister's abilities: when in free praying, the honour
and comfort varieth with the various degrees of pastoral abilities; in
one place it is excellently well done, in another but dryly, and coldly,
and meanly, in another erroneously, unedifyingly, if not dishonourably,
tending to the contempt of holy things: whereas in the way of set
liturgies, though the ablest (at that time) doth no better, yet the
weakest doth (for words) as well, and all alike.
7. And, if proud, weak men have not the composing and imposing
of it, all know that words drawn up by study, upon sober
premeditation and consultation, have a greater advantage, to be exact
and apt, than those that were never thought on till we are speaking
them.
8. The very fear of doing amiss, disturbeth some unready men, and
maketh them do all the rest the worse.
9. The auditors know beforehand, whether that which they are to
join in be sound or unsound, having time to try it.
10. And they can more readily put in their consent to what is
spoken, and make the prayer their own, when they know beforehand
what it is, than they can do when they know not before they hear it; it
being hard to the duller sort of hearers, to concur with an
understanding and consent as quick as the speaker's words are. Not
but that this may be done, but not without great difficulty in the duller
sort.
11. And it tendeth to avoid the pride and self-deceit of many, who
think they are good christians, and have the spirit of grace and
supplication, because by learning and use they can speak many hours
in variety of expressions in prayer; which is a dangerous mistake.
I. The commodities of free extemporate prayers, and the
discommodity of prescribed or set forms, are these following.
1. It becometh an advantage to some proud men who think
themselves wiser than all the rest, to obtrude their compositions, that
none may be thought wise enough, or fit to speak to God, but in their
words; and so introduce church tyranny.
2. It may become a hinderance to able, worthy ministers that can
do better.
3. It may become a dividing snare to the churches, that cannot all
agree and consent in such human impositions.
4. It may become an advantage to heretics when they can but get
into power (as the Arians of old) to corrupt all the churches and public
worship; and thus the papists have corrupted the churches by the
mass.
5. It may become an engine or occasion of persecution, and
silencing all those ministers that cannot consent to such impositions.
6. It may become a means of depraving the ministry, and bringing
them to a common idleness and ignorance (if other things alike
concur). For when men perceive that no greater abilities are used and
required, they will commonly labour for and get no greater, and so will
be unable to pray without their forms of words.
7. And by this means christian religion may decay and grow into
contempt; for though it be desirable that its own worth should keep
up its reputation and success, yet it never hitherto was so kept up
without the assistance of God's eminent gifts and graces in his
ministers; but wherever there hath been a learned, able, holy,
zealous, diligent ministry, religion usually hath flourished; and
wherever there hath been an ignorant, vicious, cold, idle, negligent,
and reproached ministry, religion usually hath died and been
reproached. And we have now no reason to look for that which never
was, and that God should take a new course in the world.
And the opinion of imposing forms of prayer, may draw on the
opinion of imposing forms of preaching as much, and of restraining
free preaching as much as free praying, as we see in Muscovy. And
then when nothing but bare reading is required, nothing more will be
ordinarily sought; and so the ministry will be the scorn of the people.
9. And it will be a shameful and uncomfortable failing, when a
minister is not able on variety of occasions, to vary his prayers
accordingly; and when he cannot go any further than his book or
lesson; it being as impossible to make prayers just fitted to all
occasions which will fall out, as to make sermons fit for all, or, as they
say, to make a coat for the moon; and the people will contemn the
ministers when they perceive this great deficiency.
10. And it is a great difficulty to many ministers to learn and say a
form without book; so that they that can all day speak what they
know, can scarce recite a form of words one quarter of an hour, the
memory more depending upon the body and its temper, than the
exercise of the understanding doth. He that is tied just to these words
and no other, is put upon double difficulties (like him that on height
must walk on a narrow plank, where the fear of falling will make him
fall); but he that may express the just desires of his soul in what
words occur that are apt and decent, is like one that hath a field to
walk in: for my own part, it is easier to me to pray or preach six hours
in freedom, about things which I understand, than to pray or preach
the tenth part of an hour in the fetters of a form of words which I
must not vary. And so the necessity of a book coming in, doth bring
down the reputation of the minister's abilities in the people's eyes.
11. But the grand incommodity, greater than all the rest, is, that it
usually occasioneth carelessness, deadness, formality, and heartless
lip-labour in our prayers to God; whilst the free way of present prayer
tendeth to excite our cogitations to consider what we say. And it is not
only the multitude of dead-hearted hypocrites in the church that are
thus tempted to persevere in their lip-labour and hypocrisy, and to
draw near to God with their lips when their hearts are far from him,
and are gratified in their self-deceit, whilst parrot-like they speak the
words which they regard not, and their tongues do overgo their
hearts; but even better men are greatly tempted to dead remissness:
I mean both the speakers and the hearers; for, (1.) It is natural to
man's mind to have a slothful weariness as well as his body; and to do
no more than he findeth a necessity of doing; and though God's
presence alone should suffice to engage all the powers of our souls,
yet sad experience telleth us, that God's eye and man's together will
do more with almost all men, than one alone. And therefore no men's
thoughts are so accurately governed as their words. Therefore when a
minister knoweth beforehand that, as to man's approbation, he hath
no more to do but to read that which he seeth before him, he is apt to
let his thoughts fly abroad, and his affections lie down, because no
man taketh account of these; but in extemporate diversified prayer, a
man cannot do it without an excitation of his understanding to think
(to the utmost) what to say; and an excitation of his affections, to
speak with life, or else the hearers will perceive his coldness. And
though all this may be counterfeit and hypocritically affected, yet it is
a great help to seriousness and sincerity to have the faculties all
awake; and it is a great help to awaken them to be under such a
constant necessity even from man. As those that are apt to sleep at
prayer, will do it less when they know men observe them, than at
another time.
(2.) And both to speaker and hearers, human frailty maketh it hard
to be equally affected with the same thing spoken a hundred times, as
we are at first when it is new, and when it is clothed in comely variety
of expressions. As the same book affecteth us not at the twentieth
reading as it did at the first. Say not, it is a dishonourable weakness to
be thus carried by the novelty of things or words; for though that be
true, it is a dishonour common to all mankind, and a disease which is
your own, and which God alloweth us all lawful means to cure, and to
correct the unhappy effects while it is uncured.
12. Lastly, set forms serve unworthy men to hide their unworthiness
by, and to be the matter of a controversy in which they may vent their
envy against them that are abler and holier than themselves.
III. Having now truly showed you the commodities and
incommodities of both the ways, for the other question, Which of
them is the best? I must give you but some rules to answer it
yourselves.
1. That is best which hath most and greatest commodities, and
fewest and least discommodities.
2. For neither of them is forbidden, in itself considered, nor evil, but
by accident.
3. One may have more commodities and the other more
discommodities in one country and age than in another, and with
some persons than with others.
4. Sober christians should be very backward in such cases to quarrel
with the churches where they live or come, but humbly submit to
them in lawful things, though they think them inconvenient; because
it is not they that are the governors and judges.
5. The commands of authority and the concord of the churches may
weigh down many lighter accidents.
6. I crave leave to profess that my own judgment is, that somewhat
of both ways joined together will best obviate the incommodities of
both. To have so much wholesome, methodical, unquestionable forms
as near as may be in Scripture phrase, as is necessary to avoid the
inconvenience of a total exclusion of forms, and to the attainment of
their desirable ends; and to have so much withal of freedom in prayer,
as is necessary to its ends, and to avoid the deadness, formality, and
other incommodities of forms alone. Though by this opinion I cross
the conceits of prejudiced men on both extremes, I think I cross not
the judgment of the church of England, which alloweth free prayers in
the pulpit, and at the visitation of the sick; and I cross not the opinion
of any ancient church that ever I read of, nor of the fathers and
pastors whose works are come to our hands; nor yet of Luther,
Melancthon, Bucer, Zuinglius, Calvin, Beza, Zanchius, and the rest of
our famous reformers; nor yet of the famous nonconformists of
England, Cartwright, Hildersham, Greenham, Perkins, Bain, Amesius,
&c. and I less fear erring in all this company, than with those on either
of the extremes.[321]
[322] Matt, xxviii. 20; Rom. x. 14; 1 Cor. ix. 16; Acts v. 42; x. 42;
2 Tim. iv. 1, 2; Acts viii. 4, 12; xv. 35.
Quest. LXXXII. How should the Lord's day be spent in the main?
Answ. I have so far opened that in the family directions, that I will
now only say, 1. That eucharistical worship is the great work of the
day; and that it should be kept as a day of public thanksgiving for the
whole work of redemption, especially for the resurrection of our Lord.
[324]
[324] Psal. xcii. 1-5; cxviii. 1-3, 15, 19, 23, 24, 27-29; Acts xx. 7, 9;
Rev. i. 10; Acts xxiv. 14, 25, 26, &c.; Psal. xvi. 7-10; 1 Cor. xvi. 1, 2.
[325] Psal. ii. 9-11; Heb. xii. 28, 29.
Quest. LXXXIII. May the people bear a vocal part in worship, or do any
more than say, Amen?
Answ. Yes:[326] the people should say Amen; that is, openly signify
their consent. But the meaning is not that they must do no more, nor
otherwise express their consent saving by that single word. For, 1.
There is no scripture which forbiddeth more. 2. The people bear an
equal part in singing the psalms; which are prayer, and praise, and
instruction. 3. If they may do so in the psalms in metre, there can no
reason be given but they may lawfully do so in the psalms in prose;
for saying them and singing them are but modes of utterance; both
are the speaking of prayer and praise to God: and the ancient singing
was liker our saying, than to our tunes, as most judge. 4. The
primitive christians were so full of the zeal and love of Christ, that
they would have taken it for an injury and a quenching of the Spirit, to
have been wholly restrained from bearing their part in the praises of
the church. 5. The use of the tongue keepeth awake the mind, and
stirreth up God's graces in his servants. 6. It was the decay of zeal in
the people that first shut out responses; while they kept up the
ancient zeal, they were inclined to take their part vocally in their
worship; and this was seconded by the pride and usurpation of some
priests thereupon, who thought the people of God too profane to
speak in the assemblies, and meddle so much with holy things.
Yet the very remembrance of former zeal, caused most churches to
retain many of the words of their predecessors, even when they lost
the life and spirit which should animate them. And so the same words
came into the liturgies, and were used by too many customarily, and
in formality, which their ancestors had used in the fervour of their
souls.
6. And if it were not that a dead-hearted, formal people, by
speaking the responses carelessly and hypocritically, do bring them
into disgrace with many that see the necessity of seriousness, I think
few good people would be against them now. If all the serious,
zealous christians in the assembly speak the same words in a serious
manner, there will appear nothing in them that should give offence. If
in the fulness of their hearts, the people should break out into such
words of prayer, or confession, or praise, it would be taken for an
extraordinary pang of zeal; and were it unusual, it would take
exceedingly. But the better any thing is, the more loathsome it
appeareth when it is mortified by hypocrisy and dead formality, and
turned into a mockery, or an affected, scenical act. But it is here the
duty of every christian to labour to restore the life and spirit to the
words, that they may again be used in a serious and holy manner as
heretofore.
7. Those that would have private men pray and prophesy in public,
as warranted by 1 Cor. xiv. "Ye may all speak," &c. do much contradict
themselves, if they say also that a layman may say nothing but Amen.
8. The people were all to say Amen in Deut. xxvii. 15, 16, 18-20,
&c. And yet they oftentimes said more. As Exod. xix. 8, in as solemn
an assembly as any of ours, when God himself gave Moses a sermon
(in a form of words) to preach to the people, and Moses had repeated
it as from the Lord, (it being the narrative of his mercies, the
command of obedience, and the promises of his great blessings upon
that condition,) "all the people answered together and said, All that
the Lord hath spoken we will do." The like was done again, Exod. xxiv.
3, and Deut. v. 27. And lest you should think either that the assembly
was not as solemn as ours, or that it was not well done of the people
to say more than Amen, God himself who was present declared his
approbation, even of the words, when the speakers' hearts were not
so sincere in speaking them as they ought: ver. 28, 29, "And the Lord
heard the voice of your words when you spake unto me, and the Lord
said unto me, I have heard the voice of the words of this people—
They have well said all that they have spoken. O that there were such
a heart in them—."
Object. But this is but a speech to Moses, and not to God.
Answ. I will recite to you a form of prayer which the people
themselves were to make publicly to God: Deut. xxvi. 13-15, "Then
shalt thou say before the Lord thy God, I have brought away the
hallowed things out of my house, and also have given them unto the
Levite and unto the stranger, to the fatherless, and to the widow,
according to all thy commandments which thou hast commanded me:
I have not transgressed thy commandments, neither have I forgotten
them. I have not eaten thereof in my mourning, neither have I taken
away ought thereof for any unclean use, nor given ought thereof for
the dead; but I have hearkened to the voice of the Lord my God, and
have done according to all that thou hast commanded me. Look down
from thy holy habitation, from heaven, and bless thy people Israel,
and the land which thou hast given us, as thou swarest unto our
fathers, a land that floweth with milk and honey." Is not here a full
form of prayer to be used by all the people? And remember that
Joseph and Mary, and Christ himself, were under this law, and that
you never read that Christ found fault with the people's speech, nor
spake a word to restrain it in his churches.
In Lev. ix. 24, "When all the people saw the glory of the Lord, and
the fire that came out from it, and consumed the burnt offering, they
shouted and fell on their faces;" which was an acclamation more than
bare amen.
2 Kings xxiii. 2, 3, "King Josiah went up into the house of the Lord,
and all the men of Judah, &c. and the priests and the prophets, and
all the people, both small and great: and he read in their ears all the
words of the book of the covenant. And the king stood by a pillar, and
made a covenant before the Lord, to walk after the Lord, and to keep
his commandments, &c. with all their heart, and all their soul, &c. And
all the people stood to the covenant." Where, as a king is the speaker,
it is like that the people used some words to express their consent.
1 Chron. xvi. 35, 36, when David delivered a psalm for a form of
praise: in which it is said to the people, ver. 35, "And say ye, Save us,
O God of our salvation, and gather us together, and deliver us from
the heathen, that we may give thanks to thy holy name, and glory in
thy praise. Blessed be the Lord God of Israel for ever and ever. All the
people said, Amen, and praised the Lord." Where it is like that their
praising the Lord was more than their amen.
And it is a command, Psal. lxvii. 3, 5, "Let all the people praise thee,
O God, let all the people praise thee." And he that will limit this to
single persons, or say that it must not be vocally in the church, or it
must be only in metre and never in prose, or only in tunes and not
without, must prove it, lest he be proved an adder to God's word.
But it would be tedious to recite all the repeated sentences in the
Psalms, which are commonly supposed to be the responses of the
people, or repeated by them. And in Rev. xiv. 2, 3, the voice as "of
many waters and as of a great thunder, and the voice of harpers
harping with their harps, who sung a new song before the throne and
before the four beasts and the elders, a song which none could learn
but the hundred forty and four thousand which were redeemed from
the earth, which were not defiled with women, who were virgins and
followed the Lamb," &c. doth seem very plainly to be spoken of the
praises of all the saints. Chap. xvii. 15, by waters is meant people,
multitudes, &c. And chap. xix. 5-8, there is expressly recited a form of
praise for all the people: "A voice came out of the throne, saying,
Praise our God, all ye his servants, and ye that fear him, both small
and great. And I heard as it were the voice of a great multitude, and
as the voice of many waters, and as the voice of mighty thunderings,
saying, Alleluia: for the Lord God omnipotent reigneth. Let us be glad,
and rejoice, and give honour to him; for the marriage of the Lamb is
come, and his wife hath made herself ready. And to her it was
granted," &c.
And indeed he that hath styled all his people "priests to God, and a
holy and royal priesthood, to offer up spiritual sacrifices acceptable to
God by Jesus Christ, and to show forth the praises (τὰς ἀρετὰς, the
virtues) of him that hath called us out of darkness into his marvellous
light," doth seem not to take them for so profane a generation, as to
be prohibited from speaking to God in public any otherwise than by
the mouth of a priest.
And it seemeth to be more allowed (and not less) under the gospel,
than under the law; because then the people, as under guilt, were
kept at a greater distance from God, and must speak to him more by
a priest that was a type of Christ our Intercessor.[327] But now we are
brought nigh, and reconciled to God, and have the spirit of sons, and
may go by Christ alone unto the Father. And therefore though it be
true that ministers yet are sub-intercessors under Christ our High
Priest, yet they are rarely called priests, but described more in the
New Testament by other parts of their office.
Object. But the people's responses make a confused noise in the
assemblies, not intelligible.
Answ. All things are ill done, that are done by ill men that carnally
and formally slubber it over: but if the best and holiest people would
unanimously set themselves to do it, as they do in singing psalms, so
that they did not only stand by to be the hearers of others, it would
be done more orderly and spiritually, as well as singing is.
[326] 1 Cor. xiv.; Psal. cl.; lxxxi. 2, 3; xcviii. 5; xciv. 1-3, &c.; cv. 2, 7,
&c.; cxlv. throughout; Col. iii. 16.
[327] Numb. i. 54; iii. 10, 31; Exod. xx.; Heb. iv. 16, 17; Eph. ii. 13;
Heb. xii. 18, 21-23.
Quest. LXXXIV. Is it not a sin for our clerks to make themselves the
mouth of the people, who are no ordained ministers of Christ?
[330] Mic. vi. 6; Jer. xxiii. 27; Isa. lii. 5, 6; xxix. 24; xlii. 8, 9; Psal. ii.
10, 11; Phil. ii. 2, 9-12; Psal. xxxiv. 3; lxvi. 2; lxviii. 4; lxxii. 19; lxxvi.
1, 2; xcvi. 2; c. 4; cxi. 9; cxlviii. 13; cxlix. 3; Isa. ix. 6, 7; xii. 4; Psal.
cxxxviii. 2, 3; Rev. xv. 4; 1 Chron. xxix. 20; 2 Chron. xxix. 30.
Quest. LXXXIX. What gestures are fittest in all the public worship?
Quest. XC. What if the pastor and church cannot agree about singing
psalms, or what version or translation to use, or time or place of
meeting, &c.?
Quest. XCI. What if the pastor excommunicate a man, and the people
will not forbear his communion, as thinking him unjustly
excommunicated?
Answ. 1. Either the pastor or the people are in the error. 2. Either
the person is a dangerous heretic, or grossly wicked, or not. 3. Either
the people do own the error or sin, for which he is excommunicated,
or only judge the person not guilty. 4. The pastor's and the people's
part in the execution must be distinguished. And so I conclude,
1. That if the pastor err and wrong the people, he must repent and
give them satisfaction; but if it be their error and obstinacy, then, 2. If
the pastor foreknow that the people will dissent, in some small
dispensable cases he may forbear to excommunicate one that
deserveth it; or if he know it after, that they will not forbear
communion with the person, he may go on in his office, and be
satisfied that he hath discharged his own duty, and leave them under
the guilt of their own faults. 3. But if it be an intolerable wickedness or
heresy, (as Arianism, Socinianism, &c.) and the people own the error
or sin as well as the person, the pastor is then to admonish them also,
and by all means to endeavour to bring them to repentance; and if
they remain impenitent to renounce communion with them and desert
them. 4. But if they own not the crime, but only think the person
injured, the pastor must give them the proof for their satisfaction; and
if they remain unsatisfied, he may proceed in his office as before.
Quest. XCII. May a whole church, or the greater part, be
excommunicated?
[332] 2 John 10, 11; 3 John 9, 10; Rev. ii. 5, 16; iii. 5, 6, 15.
Quest. XCIII. What if a church have two pastors, and one
excommunicate a man, and the other absolve him, what shall the
church and the dissenter do?
Answ. It was such cases that made the churches of old choose
bishops, and ever have but one bishop in one church. But, 1. He that
is in the wrong is first bound to repent and yield to the other. 2. If he
will not, the other in a tolerable ordinary case may for peace give way
to him, though not consent to his injurious dealing. 3. In a dubious
case they should both forbear proceeding till the case be cleared. 4.
In most cases, each party should act according to his own judgment,
if the counsel of neighbour pastors be not able to reconcile them. And
the people may follow their own judgments, and forbear obeying
either of them formally till they agree.
Quest. XCV. Must the pastors examine the people before the sacrament?
[335] Luke xxii. 19; 1 Cor. xi. 24; Acts ii. 37, 38; Matt. xxviii. 19, 20;
1 Cor. x. 16; 2 Cor. vi. 14; Acts viii. 13, 37, 38; 1 Cor. xi. 27-30.
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