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The document provides an overview of probability, defining it as a mathematical measure of the likelihood of events occurring, with values ranging from 0 to 1. It covers basic concepts such as sample space, events, and conditional probability, along with real-life applications in stock market analysis and weather forecasting. Additionally, it includes examples and references for further study.

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6 views7 pages

Presentation 6

The document provides an overview of probability, defining it as a mathematical measure of the likelihood of events occurring, with values ranging from 0 to 1. It covers basic concepts such as sample space, events, and conditional probability, along with real-life applications in stock market analysis and weather forecasting. Additionally, it includes examples and references for further study.

Uploaded by

aunkitdey8926672189
Copyright
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We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Netaji Subhash Engineering College

TOPIC : Probability and Its Real-Life Application


Name: Aunkit Dey
Stream: Computer Science & Business System
Sec: P
University Roll Number: 10931124046
Subject Code: BSM201(Mathematics-IIA)
Introduction to Probability
➢Definition: Probability is the branch of mathematics that measures the likelihood or chance of an
event occurring. It quantifies uncertainty using a numerical value between 0 and 1, where:
➢0 means the event is impossible.
➢1 means the event is certain.
➢A value between 0 and 1 represents the degree of likelihood.
➢Formula: Probability (P) of an event = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of outcomes)
➢Range: 0 ≤ P ≤ 1
➢Types of Probability:
➢Theoretical Probability (based on mathematical reasoning)
➢Experimental Probability (based on actual experiments)
➢Subjective Probability (based on intuition or experience)
Basic Probability Concepts
❖ Sample Space (S): The set of all possible outcomes in a probability experiment. For example, in rolling a six-sided die, the
sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

• Event (E): In probability, an event is a specific outcome or a set of outcomes from a random experiment. It is a subset of
the sample space (the set of all possible outcomes). Events can be simple (containing only one outcome) or compound
(containing multiple outcomes).

• For example, if we roll a six-sided die:

• The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.


• An event could be rolling an even number, which is E = {2, 4, 6}.

• Events can be classified as:

• Certain event: An event that always happens (e.g., rolling a number between 1 and 6).
• Impossible event: An event that never happens (e.g., rolling a 7 on a six-sided die).

• Independent event: An event that is not affected by another event.

• Mutually exclusive events: Events that cannot occur together (e.g., rolling a 2 and a 5 at the same time on a single die).
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Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is
denoted as P(A /B), which reads as "the probability of event A given event B."
Formula: P(A/B)=P(A∩B) / P(B)
where:
• P(A / B) = Probability of A occurring given that B has occurred.
• P(A ∩ B) = Probability of both A and B occurring together.
• P(B) = Probability of B occurring (must be greater than 0).
• Example
• Suppose we have a deck of 52 playing cards. What is the probability of drawing a King, given that we have already
drawn a face card (King, Queen, or Jack)?
• Total face cards = 12 (4 Kings, 4 Queens, 4 Jacks).
• Total Kings = 4.
• So, P(King | Face Card) = 4/12 = 1/3.
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Example of Conditional Probability
Problem Statement
Suppose a class has 100 students, where:
• 60 students are studying Mathematics (M).
• 40 students are studying Physics (P).
• 25 students are studying both Mathematics and Physics (M ∩ P).
Now, we want to find the probability that a randomly chosen student is studying Physics, given that they are
already studying Mathematics.
Solution using the Conditional Probability Formula
P(P / M)=P(M∩P)/P(M)

• P(M ∩ P) = 25/100 = 0.25 (students studying both subjects).


• P(M) = 60/100 = 0.6 (students studying Mathematics).
P(P / M)=0.25/0.6=0.4167
So, the probability that a student is studying Physics given that they are already studying Mathematics is 0.4167 (or
41.67%).
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Real-Life Applications of Probability

1.Stock Market Analysis:


➢ Risk Assessment – Probability helps investors estimate the likelihood of stock price movements and
potential losses.

➢ Expected Returns – Investors use probability distributions (e.g., normal distribution) to predict future returns
based on historical data.

2. Probability in Weather Forecasting:


➢ Predicting Rainfall – Probability helps estimate the likelihood of rain based on past weather patterns and
atmospheric conditions.
➢ Temperature Forecasting – Uses probability models to predict temperature variations based on historical
data and climate patterns.

➢ Climate Change Analysis – Long-term probability models help predict global warming trends and future
climate conditions.

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References:
1. Ross, S. M. (2019). Introduction to Probability Models. Academic Press.
2. Feller, W. (1968). An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications. Wiley.
3. Grimmett, G., & Stirzaker, D. (2020). Probability and Random Processes. Oxford University Press.
4. www.google.com

• Acknowledgement:
Special thanks to our professor Subodh Bhunia for his help and guidence.
Gratitude to everyone who supported the work.

Thank you
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