HDFC Valuation Model
HDFC Valuation Model
Table of Contents
Model
Inputs
Dividend Discount Model
Residual Income
Comps & Regression
Net Asset Value
Football Field Chart
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HDFC Bank Ltd | Cash Flow 24-Feb-2025 00:20
Cash Flow
Annual Standardised in Millions of Indian Rupees, Consolidated
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Earnings Quality Score 30 66 26 42 25
Period End Date
31-Mar-202031-Mar-202131-Mar-202231-Mar-202331-Mar-2024
Cash Flow-Operating Activities (INR Millions)
Net Income/Starting Line 381,525 427,726 507,752 613,468 751,841
Depreciation/Depletion 12,768 13,850 16,807 23,455 30,921
Depreciation 12,768 13,850 16,807 23,455 30,921
Amortization -- -- -- -- --
Deferred Taxes -- -- -- -- --
Non-Cash Items 42,691 60,488 65,840 19,231 77,593
Unusual Items 7,103 3 33 (81) (74,168)
Other Non-Cash Items 35,588 60,485 65,808 19,312 151,761
Changes in Working Capital (605,675) (77,300) (709,996) (448,017) (557,844)
Loan Loss Provision 110,657 139,270 132,870 135,612 125,401
Other Assets (72,497) 83,077 (400,447) (589,098) (311,973)
Other Liabilities 2,330,643 1,874,092 2,319,381 3,351,201 3,791,134
Other Operating Cash Flow (108,774) (130,215) (148,382) (163,675) (116,611)
Investment Securities, Gains/Losse(1,010,701) (486,713) (123,956) (636,362) (953,688)
Loans, Gains/Losses (1,855,004) (1,556,811) (2,489,461) (2,545,695) (3,092,107)
Cash from Operating Activities (168,691) 424,765 (119,596) 208,137 302,511
Income Statement
Annual Standardised in Millions of Indian Rupees, Consolidated
2020 2021 2022 2023
Earnings Quality Score 30 66 26 42
Period End Date 31-Mar-2020 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2022 31-Mar-2023
Interest Income, Bank 1,221,893 1,285,524 1,359,364 1,707,541
Interest & Fees on Loans 990,796 1,022,991 1,062,953 1,357,673
Interest & Dividends on Investment 205,727 232,116 259,071 311,733
Interest on Deposits 18,688 24,143 26,308 11,493
Other Interest Income 6,682 6,273 11,032 26,642
Total Interest Expense 621,374 592,476 585,843 777,799
Interest on Deposit 507,889 501,260 489,010 615,096
Interest on Other Borrowings 113,485 91,216 96,833 162,704
Net Interest Income 600,519 693,048 773,521 929,741
Accounting Change -- -- -- --
Discontinued Operations -- -- -- --
Extraordinary Item -- -- -- --
Tax on Extraordinary Items -- -- -- --
Total Extraordinary Items -- -- -- --
Net Income 272,540 318,332 380,528 459,971
Preferred Dividends -- -- -- --
General Partners' Distributions -- -- -- --
Miscellaneous Earnings Adjustment -- -- -- --
Pro Forma Adjustment -- -- -- --
Interest Adjustment - Primary EPS -- -- -- --
Total Adjustments to Net Income -- -- -- --
Income Available to Com Excl ExtraOrd 272,540 318,332 380,528 459,971
Income Available to Com Incl ExtraOrd 272,540 318,332 380,528 459,971
Basic Weighted Average Shares 5,469 5,500 5,533 5,566
Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Item 49.84 57.88 68.77 82.64
Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Item 49.84 57.88 68.77 82.64
Dilution Adjustment -- -- -- --
Diluted Net Income 272,540 318,332 380,528 459,971
Diluted Weighted Average Shares 5,510 5,525 5,571 5,591
Diluted EPS Excluding ExtraOrd Items 49.46 57.61 68.31 82.27
Diluted EPS Including ExtraOrd Items 49.46 57.61 68.31 82.27
Supplemental (INR Millions)
DPS - Common Stock Primary Issue 0.00 6.50 15.50 19.00
Dividends per Share - Com Stock Issue -- -- -- --
Dividends per Share - Com Stock Issue -- -- -- --
Dividends per Share - Com Stock Issue -- -- -- --
Special DPS - Common Stock Primary I 2.50 -- -- --
Special DPS - Common Stock Issue 2 -- -- -- --
Special DPS - Common Stock Issue 3 -- -- -- --
Special DPS - Common Stock Issue 4 -- -- -- --
Gross Dividends - Common Stock 16,470 35,924 86,045 106,015
Pro Forma Stock Compensation Expens 7,198 11,170 -- --
Net Income after Stock Based Comp. Ex (255,375) (299,995) -- --
Basic EPS after Stock Based Comp. Exp (46.70) (54.55) -- --
Diluted EPS after Stock Based Comp. E (46.35) (54.29) -- --
(Gain) Loss on Sale of Assets, Suppl. -- -- -- --
Impairment-Assets Held for Sale, Suppl -- -- -- --
Impairment-Assets Held for Use, Suppl. -- -- -- --
Litigation Charge, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Purchased R&D Written-Off, Supplemen -- -- -- --
Restructuring Charge, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Other Unusual Expense(Income), Suppl -- -- -- --
Non-Recurring Items, Supplemental, To -- -- -- --
Total Special Items (184) (639) (646) (902)
Normalized Income Before Taxes 381,764 427,323 508,088 614,082
Effect of Special Items on Income Taxe (53) (163) (162) (225)
Inc Tax Ex Impact of Sp Items 108,933 109,230 127,063 153,272
Normalized Income After Taxes 272,831 318,092 381,025 460,810
Normalized Inc. Avail to Com. 272,408 317,856 380,043 459,294
Basic Normalized EPS 49.81 57.80 68.68 82.52
Diluted Normalized EPS 49.44 57.53 68.22 82.15
EPS, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Amort of Acquisition Costs, Supplement -- -- -- --
Amort of Intangibles, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Amort. of Right-of-Use Intang.Assets,S -- -- -- --
Depreciation, Supplemental 12,768 13,850 16,811 23,455
Depreciation of Right-of-Use Assets,Sup -- -- -- --
Interest Expense, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Interest Capitalized, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Interest Expense on Lease Liabs., Suppl -- -- -- --
Rental Expense, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Stock-Based Compensation, Supplemen -- -- 3,412 7,871
Variable Lease Expense - Unclassified -- -- -- --
Variable Operating Lease Expenses -- -- -- --
Variable Financial Lease Expenses -- -- -- --
Short-Term Lease Cost -- -- -- --
Sublease Income -- -- -- --
Lease Expense -Total -- -- -- --
Advertising Expense, Supplemental 1,004 1,023 2,625 2,700
Equity in Affiliates, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Minority Interest, Supplemental (423) (236) (982) (1,516)
Income Taxes - Non-Recurring Tax Cha -- -- -- --
Research & Development Exp, Supplem -- -- -- --
Audit Fees 38 46 63 78
Audit-Related Fees -- -- -- --
Tax Fees -- -- -- --
All Other Fees -- -- -- --
Reported Recurring Revenue -- -- -- --
Reported Net Premiums Written -- -- -- --
Reported Total Revenue -- -- -- --
Reported Operating Revenue -- -- -- --
Reported Total Cost of Revenue -- -- -- --
Reported Total Sales, General & Admin. -- -- -- --
Reported Gross Profit -- -- -- --
Reported Operating Profit -- -- -- --
Reported Operating Profit Margin -- -- -- --
Reported Ordinary Profit -- -- -- --
Reported Net Income After Tax -- -- -- --
Reported Basic EPS -- -- -- --
Reported Diluted EPS -- -- -- --
Reported Net Business Profits -- -- -- --
Distribution to Depositors -- -- -- --
Zakat -- -- -- --
COVID-19 Non-Recurring Inc/Exp - Othe -- -- -- --
COVID-19 One-time Provisions -- -- -- --
COVID-19 Restructuring Chrgs/Provisio -- -- -- --
COVID-19 Impairment of Long-Term Ass -- -- -- --
COVID-19 One-time Government Grant -- -- -- --
COVID-19 Inc Taxes - Non-Recurring -- -- -- --
Islamic Section, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Murabaha Income -- -- -- --
Musharaka Income -- -- -- --
Istisna Income -- -- -- --
Mudaraba Income -- -- -- --
Ijara Income -- -- -- --
Wakala Income -- -- -- --
Sukuk Income -- -- -- --
Other Islamic Income -- -- -- --
Total Islamic Revenues, Supplemental -- -- -- --
Bank Total Revenue 849,308 966,377 1,091,111 1,268,862
Tax & Pension Items (INR Millions)
Current Tax - Total 104,221 123,368 143,247 154,981
Current Tax - Total 104,221 123,368 143,247 154,981
Deferred Tax - Total 4,765 (13,974) (16,022) (1,484)
Deferred Tax - Total 4,765 (13,974) (16,022) (1,484)
Income Tax - Total 108,986 109,394 127,225 153,497
Income Tax by Region - Total -- -- -- --
Domestic Pension Plan Expense 2,361 849 874 2,000
Interest Cost - Domestic 492 560 680 793
Service Cost - Domestic 1,036 1,159 1,308 1,439
Prior Service Cost - Domestic -- -- 77 0
Expected Return on Assets - Domes (399) (444) (571) (666)
Actuarial Gains and Losses - Domes 1,232 (426) (621) 433
Foreign Pension Plan Expense -- -- -- --
Post-Retirement Plan Expense -- -- -- --
Total Pension Expense 8,017 7,033 7,944 10,473
Defined Contribution Expense - Do 5,656 6,184 7,070 8,473
Assumptions -- -- -- --
Total Plan Interest Cost 492 560 680 793
Total Plan Service Cost 1,036 1,159 1,308 1,439
Total Plan Expected Return (399) (444) (571) (666)
Total Plan Other Expense -- -- -- --
Dividends and Capital Changes
HDFC Bank Ord Shs
INR 0.00 F INR 6.50 F INR 15.50 F INR 19.00 F
(31-Mar) (31-Mar) (31-Mar) (31-Mar)
Pd.End Pd.End Pd.End Pd.End
Cash Dividend
INR 2.50 S
(31-Dec)
Cash Dividend Pd.End -- -- --
1.00x
Capital Return (13-Aug) -- -- --
0
Share Split (21-Sep) -- -- --
2024
25
31-Mar-2024
2,836,490
2,179,793
575,248
26,346
55,103
1,541,386
994,015
547,371
1,295,105
125,325
1,169,780
1,243,458
306,214
578,586
200,958
38,703
69,571
1,999
47,427
(1,647,551)
(310,501)
(30,921)
(76)
(1,306,054)
765,686
111,221
654,465
(13,845)
--
--
640,620
--
--
--
--
--
640,620
--
--
--
--
--
--
640,620
640,620
7,085
90.42
90.42
--
640,620
7,117
90.01
90.01
19.50
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
148,140
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
(1,923)
763,763
(279)
110,942
652,821
638,977
90.19
89.78
--
--
--
--
30,947
--
--
--
--
--
17,317
--
--
--
--
--
--
12,594
--
(13,845)
--
--
261
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
2,538,562
139,489
139,489
(28,268)
(28,268)
111,221
--
(651)
1,040
2,387
0
(1,049)
(3,029)
--
--
10,181
10,833
--
1,040
2,387
(1,049)
--
INR 19.50 F
(31-Mar)
Pd.End
--
--
--
HDFC Bank Ltd | Balance Sheet 24-Feb-2025 00:20
Balance Sheet
Annual Standardised in Millions of Indian Rupees, Consolidated
2020 2021 2022
Earnings Quality Score 30 66 26
Period End Date31-Mar-202031-Mar-202131-Mar-2022
Assets (INR Millions)
Cash & Due from Banks 898,349 1,254,687 1,545,680
Other Earning Assets, Total 3,975,903 4,486,930 4,618,778
FedFundsSold/ScrtyPurch UnderResaleAgrmt 82,853 98,699 126,139
Other Short Term Investments -- -- --
Securities Held 3,238,808 3,526,095 3,679,507
Securities for Sale 654,241 862,136 813,132
Total Investment Securities 3,893,050 4,388,231 4,492,639
Net Loans 10,334,907 11,712,175 14,091,461
Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Gross 140,474 154,560 179,832
Buildings - Gross 18,911 18,911 22,095
Other Property/Plant/Equipment - Gross 121,563 135,649 157,737
Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Net 46,269 50,996 62,833
Accumulated Depreciation, Total (94,205) (103,565) (116,999)
Goodwill, Net 1,488 0 1,488
Intangibles, Net -- -- --
Long Term Investments -- -- --
LT Investment - Affiliate Companies -- -- --
Other Long Term Assets, Total 41,442 6 71,438
Defered Income Tax - Long Term Asset 41,442 6 71,438
Other Assets, Total 509,946 490,274 837,665
Interest Receivable 103,327 118,929 134,703
Other Assets 406,619 371,345 702,962
Total Assets 15,808,304 17,995,066 21,229,343
1,483,666 2,125,846
5,690,631 10,270,548
574,814 215,732
-- 2,941,619
4,389,415 6,551,149
726,402 562,048
5,115,817 7,113,197
16,532,491 25,605,681
216,736 302,663
24,627 50,546
192,109 252,117
82,826 126,038
(133,910) (176,626)
1,488 0
-- --
-- 2,000
-- 2,000
72,923 93,020
72,923 93,020
1,440,300 2,078,810
186,905 254,730
1,253,395 1,824,080
25,304,324 40,301,943
-- --
-- --
113,938 238,534
18,826,633 23,768,873
2,729,176 3,077,767
16,097,456 20,691,106
-- --
117,908 139,326
117,908 139,326
-- --
-- --
2,565,487 7,306,155
2,565,487 7,306,155
2,683,394 7,445,480
-- --
8,603 133,834
777,382 4,151,269
72,521 110,052
704,861 4,041,217
22,409,949 35,737,990
-- --
-- --
5,580 7,597
5,580 7,597
665,394 1,270,533
2,205,281 3,242,135
-- --
11,172 26,527
-- --
6,948 17,161
7,789 8,838
(841) 8,323
2,894,375 4,563,953
25,304,324 40,301,943
-- --
-- --
-- --
5,580 7,597
5,580 7,597
0 0
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
8,603 133,834
2,902,978 4,697,787
173,222 213,527
-- --
2,290,092 4,121,815
-- --
-- --
1,488 0
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
10.26% 10.57%
119.13% 120.81%
115.51% 115.17%
2,731,246 4,210,589
116,030 120,495
2,847,277 4,331,084
339,908 500,536
-- --
3,187,184 4,831,620
16,758,818 26,088,433
16.30% 16.14%
16.99% 16.60%
2.03% 1.92%
-- --
19.02% 18.52%
560,698 271,605
20,425,081 30,227,226
198,858 328,087
1,016,550 1,373,430
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
198,858 328,087
-- --
198,858 328,087
-- --
2,892,887 4,563,953
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
-- --
140,323 198,699
15,196 21,216
13,973 19,435
13,973 19,435
13,973 19,435
13,973 19,435
27,946 38,870
27,946 38,870
69,236 99,743
-- --
(1,911) (405)
12,830 20,242
10,919 19,837
(1,911) (405)
-- --
(1,911) (405)
(1,911) (873)
-- 469
-- --
39.94% 30.34%
93.77% 75.04%
66.29% 94.62%
12,830 20,242
10,919 19,837
Cost of Equity & Terminal Value
Cost of Equity
ROE 17.76%
Dividend payout 23%
Retention Ratio 77%
Growth Rate 13.66%
Terminal Multiple
ROE 17.76%
Cost of Equity 14.30%
Growth Rate 13.66%
"Justified" P/B Multiple 6.38x
Interest Income
Cost Schedule
All figures in USD Millions unless stated 2022A 2023A
Inflation
Interest Expense
Total Deposits 15,580,030 18,826,633
Deposit Growth 20.84%
Interest Rate 3.14% 3.27%
Interest Expense for Deposits 489,010 615,096
Depreciation
Sales 1,359,364 1,707,541
Depreciation % Sales 1.24% 1.37%
Depreciation 16,807 23,455
Tax Schedule
Tax
Dividend Schedule
Net Income
Dividends
Surplus
Common Equity
Opening Balance
Addition/Subtraction
Ending Balance
Return on Equity
Cost of Equity
Required Return on Equity
Residual Income
Alternative Calculation
Residual Income
Residual Income
Valuation
(YY-MM-DD) (YY-MM-DD)
Fiscal Year End 24/12/31 25/12/31
Income Timing 24/12/31 25/06/30
– 163,672
163,672
163,672
100.00%
163,672
-
163,672
0.5
153,092
-
153,092
PV OF RESIDUAL INCOME
Manual Method 10,791,316
XNPV Function 1 11,533,085
2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F Term
EQUITY VALUE
PV of Discrete 6% 829,477
PV of Terminal 69% 9,961,839
Book Value of Equity 25% 3,641,276
Equity Value 100% 14,432,592
Chart Title
Residual Income