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[Concepts of Statistics] [Frequency Analysis] [Low-flow Frequency] [Droughts] [Questions] [Problems]
[References] •

CHAPTER 6:
FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

"If the sediment load in a stream is reduced, equilibrium can be restored if the water discharge or the bottom slope
are reduced, or if the sediment diameter increases the proper amount."
Emory W. Lane (1955)

This chapter is divided into three sections. Section 6.1 contains a review of statistics and
probability concepts useful in engineering hydrology. Section 6.2 describes techniques of flood
frequency analysis. Section 6.3 discusses low-flow frequency and droughts.

6.1 CONCEPTS OF STATISTICS

[Frequency Analysis] [Low-flow Frequency] [Droughts] [Questions] [Problems] [References] • [Top]

Introduction

T he term frequency analysis refers to the techniques whose objective is to analyze the occurrence
of hydrologic variables within a statistical framework, i.e., by using measured data and basing
Alt+A
predictions on statistical laws. These techniques are applicable to the study of statistical properties of

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either rainfall or runoff (flow) series. In engineering hydrology, however, frequency analysis is
commonly used to calculate flood discharges.

In principle, techniques of frequency analysis are applicable to gaged catchments with long periods of
streamflow record. In practice, these techniques are primarily used for large catchments, because
these are more likely to be gaged and have longer record periods. Frequency analysis is56:09 also
applicable to midsize catchments, provided the record length is adequate. For ungaged catchments
(either midsize or large), frequency analysis can be used in a regional context to develop flow
characteristics applicable to hydrologically homogeneous regions. These techniques comprise what is
referred to as regional analysis (Chapter 7).

The question to be answered by flow frequency analysis can be stated as follows: Given n years of
daily streamflow records for stream S, what is the maximum (or minimum) flow Q that is likely to recur
with a frequency of once in T years on the average? Or, what is the maximum flow Q associated with
a T-year return period? Alternatively, frequency analysis seeks to answer the inverse question: What
is the return period T associated with a maximum (or minimum) flow Q?

In more general terms, the preceding questions can be stated as follows: Given n years of streamflow
data for stream S and L years of design life of a certain structure, what is the probability P of a
discharge Q being exceeded at least once during the design life L? Alternatively, what is the
discharge Q which has the probability P of being exceeded during the design life L?

Random Variables

Frequency analysis uses random variables and probability distributions. A random variable follows a
certain probability distribution. A probability distribution is a function that expresses in mathematical
terms the relative chance of occurrence of each of all possible outcomes of the random variable. In
statistical notation, P (X = x1) is the probability P that the random variable X takes on the outcome x1.
A shorter notation is P (x1).

An example of random variable and probability distribution is shown in Fig. 6-1. This is a discrete
probability distribution because the possible outcomes have been arranged into groups (or classes).
The random variable is discharge Q; the possible outcomes are seven discharge classes, from 0-100
m3/s to 600-700 m3/s. In Fig. 6-1, the probability that Q is in the class 100-200 m3/s is 0.25. The sum
of probabilities of all possible outcomes is equal to 1.

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Figure 6-1 Discrete Probability Distribution.

A cumulative discrete distribution, corresponding to the discrete probability distribution of Fig. 6-1, is
shown in Fig. 6-2. In this figure, the probability that Q is in a class less than or equal to the 100-200
m3/s class is 0.40. The maximum value of probability of the cumulative distribution is 1.

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Figure 6-2 Cumulative Discrete Probability Distribution.

Properties of Statistical Distributions

The properties of statistical distributions are described by the following measures:

1. Central tendency,

2. Variability, and

3. Skewness.

Statistical distributions are described in terms of moments. The first moment describes central
tendency, the second moment describes variability, and the third moment describes skewness. Higher
order moments are possible but are seldom used in practical applications.

The first moment about the origin is the arithmetic mean, or mean. It expresses the distance from the
origin to the centroid of the distribution, as shown in Fig. 6-3 (a):

1 n
x̄ = ____ Σ xi (6-1)
n i =1

in which x̄ is the mean, xi is the random variable, and n is the number of values.

The geometric mean is the nth root of the product of n terms:

x̄ = (x1 x2 x3 . . . xn)1/n (6-2)

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The logarithm of the geometric mean is the mean of the logarithms of the individual values. The
geometric mean is to the lognormal probability distribution what the arithmetic mean is to the normal
probability distribution.

The median is the value of the variable that divides the probability distribution into two equal portions
(or areas); see Fig. 6-3 (b). For certain skewed distributions (i.e., one with third moment other56:09
than
zero), the median is a better indication of central tendency than the mean. Another measure of central
tendency is the mode, defined as the value of the variable that occurs most frequently; see Fig. 6-3
(c).

Fig. 6-3 Properties of statistical distributions.

Statistical moments can be defined about axes other than the origin. The second moment about the
mean is the variance, defined as

1 n

s 2 = ________ Σ ( xi - x̄ ) 2 (6-3)
n - 1 i =1

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in which s 2 is the variance. The square root of the variance, s, is the standard deviation. The
variance coefficient (or coefficient of variation) is defined as

s
Cv = ____ (6-4)
x̄ 56:09

The standard deviation and variance coefficient are useful in comparing relative variability among
distributions. The larger the standard deviation and variance coefficient, the larger the spread of the
distribution; see Fig. 6-3 (d).

The third moment about the mean is the skewness, defined as follows:

n n

a= _______________ Σ ( xi - x̄ )3 (6-5)
(n - 1)(n - 2) i =1

in which a is the skewness. The skew coefficient is defined as

a
Cs = ____
(6-6)
s3

For symmetrical distributions, the skewness is 0 and Cs = 0. For right skewness (distributions with the
long tail to the right), Cs > 0; for left skewness (long tail to the left), Cs < 0; see Fig. 6-3 (e).

Another measure of skewness is Pearson's skewness, defined as the ratio of the difference between
mean and mode to the standard deviation.

Example 6-1.

Calculate the mean, standard deviation, and skew coefficient for the following flood series: 4580, 3490,
7260, 9350, 2510, 3720, 4070, 5400, 6220, 4350, and 5930 m3/ s.

The calculations are shown in Table 6-1. Column 1 shows the year and Col. 2 shows the annual maximum
flows. The mean (Eq. 6-1) is calculated by summing up Col. 2 and dividing the sum by n = 11. This results in
x̄ = 5171 m3/s. Column 3 shows the flow deviations from the mean, xi - x̄ . Column 4 shows the square of the

flow deviations, ( xi - x̄ )2. The variance (Eq. 6-3) is calculated by summing up Col. 4 and dividing the sum

by (n - 1) = 10. This results in: s 2 = 3,780,449 m6/ s2. The square root of the variance is the standard
deviation: s = 1944 m3/s. The variance coefficient (Eq. 6-4) is Cv = 0.376. Column 5 shows the cube of the

flow deviations, ( xi - x̄ )3. The skewness (Eq. 6-5) is calculated by summing up Col. 5 and multiplying the

sum by n / [(n - 1)(n - 2)] = 11/90. This results in a = 6,717,359,675 m9/s3. The skew coefficient (Eq. 6-6) is
equal to the skewness divided by the cube of the standard deviation. This results in Cs = 0.914.

Table 6-1 Calculation of Mean, Standard Deviation, and Skew Coefficient: Example 6-1.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

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Peak flow ( xi - x̄ ) ( xi - x̄ )2 ( xi - x̄ )3
Year
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m6/s2) (m9/s3)

1 4,580 -591 349,281 -206,425,071

2 3,490 -1,681 2,825,761 -4,750,104,241

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3 7,260 2,089 4,363,921 9,116,230,969

4 9,350 4,179 17,464,041 72,982,227,340

5 2,510 -2,661 7,080,921 -18,842,330,780

6 3,720 -1,451 2,105,401 -3,054,936,851

7 4,070 -1,101 1,212,201 -1,334,633,301

8 5,400 229 52,441 12,008,989

9 6,220 1,049 1,100,401 1,154,320,649

10 4,350 -821 674,041 -553,387,661

11 5,930 759 576,081 437,245,479

Sum 56,880 37,804,491 54,960,215,521

Continuous Probability Distributions

A continuous probability distribution is referred to as a probability density function (PDF). A PDF is an

equation relating probability, random variable, and parameters of the distribution. Selected PDFs
useful in engineering hydrology are described in this section.

Normal Distribution. The normal distribution is a symmetrical, bell-shaped PDF also known as the
Gaussian distribution, or the natural law of errors. It has two parameters: the mean μ, and the
standard deviation σ, of the population. In practical applications, the mean x̄ and the standard
deviation s derived from sample data are substituted for μ and σ, respectively. The PDF of the normal
distribution is:

1
2 2
f (x) = __________ e - (x - μ) / (2σ ) (6-7)
σ (2π)1/2

in which x is the random variable and f (x) is the continuous probability.

By means of the transformation

x-μ
z= ________ (6-8)
σ

the normal distribution can be converted into a one-parameter distribution, as follows:

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1
2
f (z) = ________ e-z /2 (6-9)
(2π)1/2

in which z is the standard unit, which is normally distributed with zero mean and unit standard
deviation. 56:09

From Eq. 6-8:

x=μ+zσ (6-10)

in which z, the standard unit, is the frequency factor of the normal distribution. In general, the
frequency factor of a statistical distribution is referred to as K.

A cumulative density function (CDF) can be derived by integrating the probability density function.
From Eq. 6-9, integration leads to

1 z

F (z) = ________ ∫ e-u /2 du

2
(6-11)
(2π)1/2 -∞

in which F(z) denotes cumulative probability and u is a dummy variable of integration. The distribution
is symmetrical with respect to the origin; therefore, only half of the distribution needs to be evaluated.
Table A-5 (Appendix A) shows values of F(z) versus z, in which F(z) is integrated from the origin to z.

Example 6-2.

The annual maximum flows of a certain stream have been found to be normally distributed, with mean 90
m3/s and standard deviation 30 m3/s. Calcuiate the probability that a flow larger that 150 m3/s will occur.

To enter Table A-5, it is necessary to calculate the standard unit. For a flow of 150 m3/s, the standard unit
(Eq. 6-8) is: z = (150 - 90)/ 30 = 2. This means that the flow of 150 m3/s is located two standard deviations
to the right of the mean (had z been negative, the flow would have been located to the left of the mean). In
Table A-5, for z = 2, F(z) = 0.4772. This value is the cumulative probability measured from z = 0 to z = 2, i.e.,
from the mean (90 m3/s) to the value being considered (150 m3/s). Because the normal distribution is
symmetrical with respect to the origin, the cumulative probability measured from z = - ∞ to z = 0, is 0.5.
Therefore, the cumulative probability measured from z = -∞ to z = 2, is F(z) = 0.5 + 0.4772 = 0.9772. This is
the probability that the flow is less than 150 m3/s. To find the probability that the flow is larger than 150 m3/s,
the complementary cumulative probability is calculated: G(z)= 1 - F(z) = 0.0228. Therefore, there is a
(0.0228 × 100) = 2.28% chance that the annual maximum flow for the given stream will be larger than 150
m3/s.

Lognormal Distribution. For certain natural phenomena, values of random variables do not follow a
normal distribution, but their logarithms do. In this case, a suitable PDF can be obtained by
substituting y for x in the equation for the normal distribution, Eq. 6-7, in which y = ln (x). The
parameters of the lognormal distribution are the mean and standard deviation of y : μy and σy.

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Gamma Distribution. The gamma distribution is used in many applications of engineering hydrology.
The PDF of the gamma distribution is the following:

x γ - 1 e-x/β
f (x) = _____________ (6-12)
β γ Γ(γ) 56:09

for 0 < x < ∞, β > 0, and γ > 0. The parameter γ is known as the shape parameter, since it most
influences the peakedness of the distribution, while the parameter β is called the scale parameter,
since most of its influence is on the spread of the distribution [4].

The mean of the gamma distribution is βγ, the variance is β2γ, and the skewness is 2/γ1/2. The term
Γ(γ) = (γ - 1)! , in which γ is a positive integer, is an important definite integral referred to as the
gamma function, defined as follows:

Γ(γ) = ∫ x γ - 1 e-x dx (6-13)

0

Pearson Distributions. Pearson [24] has derived a series of probability functions to fit virtually any
distribution. These functions have been widely used in practical statistics to define the shape of many
distribution curves. The general PDF of the Pearson distributions is the following [6]:

x
∫ [( a + x ) / ( b0 + b1x + b2x2 )] dx (6-14)
-∞
f (x) = e

in which a, b0 , b1, b2 are constants. The criterion for determining the type of distribution is κ, defined
as follows:

β1( β2 + 3)2
κ = ________________________________ (6-15)
4 (4β2 - 3β1) (2β2 - 3β1 - 6)

in which β1 = μ32/μ23 and β2 = μ4/μ22, with μ2, μ3, and μ4 being the second, third, and fourth
moments about the mean. With μ3 = 0 (i.e., zero skewness), β1 = 0, κ = 0, and the Pearson
distribution reduces to the normal distribution.

The Pearson Type III distribution has been widely used in flood frequency analysis. In the Pearson
Type III distribution, κ = ∞, which implies that 2β2 = (3β1 + 6). This is a three-parameter skewed
distribution with the following PDF:

(x - xo)γ - 1 e - (x - xo) /β
f (x) = _________________________ (6-16)
βγ Γ(γ)

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and parameters β, γ, and xo. For xo = 0, the Pearson Type III distribution reduces to the gamma
distribution (Eq. 6-12). For γ = 1, the Pearson Type III distribution reduces to the exponential
distribution, with the following PDF:

1
f (x) = (____) e- (x - xo) /β 56:09
(6-17)
β

The mean of the Pearson Type III distribution is: xo + βγ; the variance is: β2γ; and the skewness is:

2/γ1/2.

Extreme Value Distributions. The extreme value distributions Types I, II, and III are based on the
theory of extreme values. Frechet (on Type II) in 1927 [8] and Fisher and Tippett (on Types I and III)
in 1928 [8] independently studied the statistical distribution of extreme values. Extreme value theory
implies that if a random variable Q is the maximum in a sample of size n from some population of x
values, then, provided n is sufficiently large, the distribution of Q is one of three asymptotic types (I, II,
or III), depending on the distribution of x.

The extreme value distributions can be combined into one and expressed as a general extreme value
(GEV) distribution [23]. The cumulative density function of the GEV distribution is:

1/k
F ( x ) = e - [1 - k ( x - u ) / α] (6-18)

in which k, u and α are parameters. The parameter k defines the type of distribution, u is a location
parameter, and α is a scale parameter. For k = 0, the GEV distribution reduces to the extreme value
Type I (EV1), or Gumbel distribution. For k < 0, the GEV distribution is the extreme value Type II
(EV2), or Frechet distribution. For k > 0, the GEV distribution is the extreme value Type III (EV3), or
Weibull distribution. The GEV distribution is useful in applications where an extreme value distribution
is being considered but its type is not known a priori.

Gumbel [13, 14, 15, 16] has fitted the extreme value Type I distribution to long records of river flows
from many countries. The cumulative density function (CDF) of the Gumbel distribution is the
following double exponential function:

-y
F ( x ) = e -e (6-19)

in which y = (x - u)/α is the Gumbel (reduced) variate.

The mean ȳn and standard deviation σn of the Gumbel variate are functions of record length n. Values
of ȳn and σn as a function of n are given in Table A-8 (Appendix A). When the record length
approaches ∞, the mean ȳn approaches the value of the Euler constant (0.5772) [29], and the
standard deviation σn approaches the value π /61/2. The skew coefficient of the Gumbel distribution is
1.14.

The extreme value Type II distribution is also known as the log Gumbel. Its cumulative density
function is:

1/k
F ( x ) = e -y (6-20)
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for k < 0.

The extreme value Type III distribution has the same CDF as the Type II, but in this case k > 0. As k
approaches 0, the EV2 and EV3 distributions converge to the EV1 distribution.

6.2 FREQUENCY ANALYSIS 56:09

[Low-flow Frequency] [Droughts] [Questions] [Problems] [References] • [Top] [Concepts of Statistics]

F lood frequency analysis refers to the application of frequency analysis to study the occurrence of
floods. Historically, many probability distributions have been used for this purpose. The normal
distribution was first used by Horton [19] in 1913, and shortly thereafter by Fuller [11]. Hazen [17]
used the lognormal distribution to reduce skewness, whereas Foster [9] preferred to use the skewed
Pearson distributions.

The logarithmic version of the Pearson Type III distribution, i.e., the log Pearson III, has been
endorsed by the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data for general use in the United
States [31]. The Gumbel distribution (extreme value Type I, or EVl) is also widely used in the United
States and throughout the world. The log Pearson III and Gumbel methods are described in this
section.

Selection of Data Series

The complete record of streamflows at a given gaging station is called the complete duration series.
To perform a flood frequency analysis, it is necessary to select a flood series, i.e., a sample of flood
events extracted from the complete duration series.

There are two types of flood series: (1) the partial duration series and (2) the extreme value series.
The partial duration (or peaks-over-a-threshold (POT) [23] series consists of floods whose magnitude
is greater than a certain base value. When the base value is such that the number of events in the
series is equal to the number of years of record, the series is called an annual exceedance series.

In the extreme value series, every year of record contributes one value to the extreme value series,
either the maximum value (as in the case of flood frequency analysis) or the minimum value (as in the
case of low-flow frequency analysis). The former is the annual maxima series; the latter is the annual
minima series.

The annual exceedance series takes into account all extreme events above a certain base value,
regardless of when they occurred. However, the annual maxima series considers only one extreme
event per yearly period. The difference between the two series is likely to be more marked for short
records in which the second largest annual events may strongly influence the character of the annual
exceedance series. In practice, the annual exceedance series is used for frequency analyses
involving short return periods, ranging from 2 to 10 y. For longer return periods the difference between
annual exceedance and annual maxima series is small. The annual maxima series is used for return
periods ranging from 10 to 100 y and more.

Return Period, Frequency, and Risk

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The time elapsed between successive peak flows exceeding a certain flow Q is a random variable
whose mean value is called the return period T (or recurrence interval) of the flow Q. The relationship
between probability and return period is the following:

1
____ (6-21)
P(Q) = 56:09
T

in which P(Q) is the probability of exceedance of Q, or frequency. The terms frequency and return
period are often used interchangeably, although strictly speaking, frequency is the reciprocal of return
period. A frequency of 1/T, or one in T years, corresponds to a return period of T years.

The probability of nonexceedance P(Q̄ ) is the complementary probability of the probability of

exceedance P(Q), defined as

1
P(Q̄ ) = 1 - P(Q) = 1 - ____ (6-22)
T

The probability of nonexceedance in n successive years is

1 n

P(Q̄ ) = ( 1 - _____ ) (6-23)

T

Therefore, the probability, or risk, that Q will occur at least once in n successive years is

1 n

R = 1 - P(Q̄ ) = 1 - ( 1 - _____ ) (6-24)

T

Plotting Positions

Frequency distributions are plotted using probability papers. One of the scales on a probability paper
is a probability scale; the other is either an arithmetic or logarithmic scale. Normal and extreme value
probability distributions are most often used in probability papers.

An arithmetic probability paper has a normal probability scale and an arithmetic scale. This type of
paper is used for plotting normal and Pearson distributions. A log probability paper has a normal
probability scale and a logarithmic scale and is used for plotting lognormal and log Pearson
distributions. An extreme value probability paper has an extreme value scale and an arithmetic scale
and is used for plotting extreme value distributions.

Data fitting a normal distribution plot as a straight line on arithmetic probability paper. Likewise, data
fitting a lognormal distribution plot as a straight line on log probability paper, and data fitting the
Gumbel distribution plot as a straight line on extreme value probability paper.

For plotting purposes, the probability of an individual event can be obtained directly from the flood
series. For a series of n annual maxima, the following ratio holds:

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x̄ m
___ = _______ (6-25)
N n+1

in which x̄ = mean number of exceedances; N = number of trials; n = number of values in the series;
and m = the rank of descending values, with largest equal to 1. 56:09
For example, if n = 79, the second largest value in the series (m = 2) will be exceeded twice on the
average (x̄ = 2) in 80 trials (N = 80). Likewise, the largest value in the series (m = 1) will be exceeded
once on the average (x̄ = 1) after 80 trials (N = 80). Since return period T is associated with x̄ = 1, Eq.
6-25 can be expressed as follows:

1 m
___= P = _______ (6-26)
T n+1

in which P = exceedance probability.

Equation 6-26 is known as the Weibull plotting position formula. This equation is commonly used in
hydrologic applications, particularly for computing plotting positions for unspecified distributions [1]. A
general plotting position formula is of the following form [12]:

1 m-a
___ =P= _____________ (6-27)
T n + 1 - 2a

in which a = parameter. Cunnane [7] performed a detailed study of the accuracy of different plotting
position formulas and concluded that the Blom formula [3], with a = 0.375 in Eq. 6-27, is most
appropriate for the normal distribution, whereas the Gringorten formula, with a = 0.44, should be used
in connection with the Gumbel distribution. According to Cunnane, the Weibull formula, for which a =
0, is most appropriate for a uniform distribution.

In computing plotting positions, when the ranking of values is in descending order (from highest to
lowest), P is the probability of exceedance, or the probability of a value being greater than or equal to
the ranked value. When the ranking of values is in ascending order (from lowest to highest), P is the
probability of nonexceedance, or the probability of a value being less than or equal to the ranked
value. The computation of plotting positions is illustrated by the following example.

Example 6-3.

Use Eq. 6-26 to calculate the plotting positions for the flood series (annual maxima) shown in Table 6-2,
Col. 2.

The solution is shown in Table 6-2, Cols. 3-5. Column 3 shows the ranked values, from highest to lowest.
Colum 4 shows the rank of each value, from 1 to 16 (n = 16), with the highest value ranked as 1 and the
lowest value ranked as 16. Column 5 shows the probability calculated by Eq. 6-26 (expressed in percent).
Because the ranking was done in descending order, Col. 5 shows the probability that a value of flood
discharge will be greater than or equal to the ranked value. To illustrate, there is a 5.88% probability that a
value of flood discharge will be greater than or equal to 3320 m3/s. Conversely, there is a 94.12% probability
that the value of flood discharge will be greater than or equal to 690 m3/s. Column 6 shows the return period
calculated by Eq. 6-26.

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Table 6-2 Computation of Plotting Positions: Example 6-3.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Annual Flood Ranked Values Return

Probability
Year Rank Period
(m3/s) (m3/s) (percent)
(y) 56:09
1972 2520 3320 1 5.88 17.00

1973 1850 3170 2 11.76 8.50

1974 750 2520 3 17.65 5.67

1975 1100 2160 4 23.53 4.25

1976 1380 1950 5 29.41 3.40

1977 1910 1910 6 35.29 2.83

1978 3170 1850 7 41.18 2.43

1979 1200 1730 8 47.06 2.13

1980 820 1480 9 52.94 1.89

1981 690 1380 10 58.82 1.70

1982 1240 1240 11 64.71 1.55

1983 1730 1200 12 70.59 1.42

1984 1950 1100 13 76.47 1.31

1985 2160 820 14 82.35 1.21

1986 3320 750 15 88.24 1.13

1987 1480 690 16 94.12 1.06

Curve Fitting

Once the data have been plotted on probability paper, the next step is to fit a curve through the
plotted points. Curve fitting can be accomplished by any of the following methods: (1) graphical, (2)
least square, (3) moments, and (4) maximum likelihood. The graphical method consists of fitting a
function visually to the data. This method, however, has the disadvantage that the results are highly
dependent on the skills of the person doing the fitting. A more consistent procedure is to use either
the least square, moments, or maximum likelihood methods.

In the least square method, the sum of the squares of the differences between observed data and
fitted values is minimized. The minimization condition leads to a set of m normal equations, where m
is the number of parameters to be estimated. The simultaneous solution of the normal equations
leads to the parameters describing the fitting (Chapter 7).

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To apply the method of moments, it is first necessary to select a distribution; then, the moments of the
distribution are calculated based on the data. The method provides an exact theoretical fitting, but the
accuracy is substantially affected by errors in the tail of the distribution (i.e., events of long return
period). A disadvantage of the method is the uncertainty regarding the adequacy of the chosen
probability distribution.
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In the method of maximum likelihood, the distribution parameters are estimated in such a way that the
product of probabilities (i.e., the joint probability, or likelihood) is maximized. This is obtained in a
similar manner to the least square method by partially differentiating the likelihood with respect to
each of the parameters and equating the result to zero.

The four fitting methods can be rated in ascending order of effectiveness: graphical, least square,
moments, and maximum likelihood. The latter, however, is somewhat more difficult to apply [6, 21]. In
practice, the method of moments is the most commonly used curve fitting method (see, for instance,
the log Pearson III and Gumbel methods described later in this section).

Frequency Factors

Any value of a random variable may be represented in the following form:

x = x̄ + Δx (6-28)

in which x = value of random variable; x̄ = mean of the distribution, and Δx = departure from the
mean, a function of return period and statistical properties of the distribution. This departure from the
mean can be expressed in terms of the product of the standard deviation s and a frequency factor K
such that Δx = K s. The frequency factor is a function of return period and probability distribution to be
used in the analysis. Therefore, Eq. 6-28 can be written in the following form:

x = x̄ + K s (6-29)

or, alternatively,

x
___ = 1 + K Cv (6-30)
x̄

in which Cv = variance coefficient.

Equation 6-29 was proposed by Chow [5] as a general equation for hydrologic frequency analysis.
For any probability distribution, a relationship can be determined between frequency factor and return
period. This relationship can be expressed in analytical terms, in the form of tables, or by K-T curves.
In using the procedure, the statistical parameters are first determined from the analysis of the flood
series. For a given return period, the frequency factor is determined from the curves or tables and the
flood magnitude computed by Eq. 6-29.

Log Pearson III Method

The log Pearson III method of flood frequency analysis is described in Bulletin 17B: Guidelines for
Determining Flood Flow Frequency, published by the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water
Data, Reston, Virginia [31].

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Methodology. To apply the method, the following steps are necessary:

1. Assemble the annual flood series xi.

2. Calculate the logarithms of the annual flood series:

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yi = log xi (6-31)

3. Calculate the mean ȳ, standard deviation sy, and skew coefficient Csy of the logarithms yi.

4. Calculate the logarithms of the flood discharges, log Qj for each of several chosen probability
levels Pj using the following frequency formula:

log Qj = ȳ + Kj sy (6-32)

in which Kj is the frequency factor, a function of the probability Pj and the skew coefficient Csy.
Table A-6 (Appendix A) shows frequency factors K for ten selected probability levels in the
range 0.5 to 95 percent (and corresponding return periods in the range 200 to 1.05 y) and skew
coefficients in the range -3.0 to 3.0.

5. Calculate the flood discharges Qj for each Pj probability level (or return period Tj) by taking the
antilogarithms of the log Qj values.

6. Plot the flood discharges Qj against probabilities Pj on log probability paper, with discharges in
the log scale and probabilities in the probability scale. The log Pearson III fit to the data is
obtained by linking the points with a smooth curve. For Csy = 0, the curve reduces to a straight
line.

The procedure is illustrated by the following example.

Example 5-4.

Apply the log Pearson III method to the flood series of Example 6-3. Plot the results on log probability paper
along with the plotting positions calculated in Example 6-3.

The discharge values, Table 6-2, Col. 2, are converted to logarithms, and the mean, standard deviation, and
skew coefficient of the logarithms calculated. This results in ȳ = 3.187, sy = 0.207, and Csy = -0.116. The
computations are summarized in Table 6-3. Column 1 shows selected return periods, and Col. 2 shows the
associated probabilities in percent (exceedance probability). Column 3 shows the frequency factors K for
Csy = -0.116 and for each return period or exceedance probability. Values in Col. 3 are obtained from Table
A-6 by linear interpolation. Column 4 shows the logarithms of the flood discharges calculated by Eq. 6-32,
and Col. 5 shows the flood discharges. The flood discharges are plotted against corresponding probabilities,
as shown by the solid line of Fig. 6-4, to obtain the log Pearson III fit to the data. The plotting positions
calculated in Example 6-3 are also shown for comparison.

Table 6-3 Log Pearson III Method: Example 6-4.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

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Return period T Probability P Frequency factor K Q

yi = log Q
(y) (percent) (for Csy = - 0.116) (m3/s)

1.05 95 -1.677 2.840 692

1.11 90 -1.293 2.919 830

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1.25 80 -0.835 3.014 1033

2 50 0.019 3.191 1552

5 20 0.847 3.362 2301

10 10 1.268 3.449 2812

25 4 1.710 3.541 3475

50 2 1.991 3.599 3972

100 1 2.240 3.651 4477

200 0.5 2.467 3.698 4989

ONLINE CALCULATION. Using ONLINE PEARSON, the results are essentially the same, varying
from Q = 691 m3/s for T = 1.05 y, to Q = 4984 m3/s for T = 200 y.

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Figure 6-4 Log Pearson III fit: Example 6-4 [31].

Regional Skew Characteristics

The skew coefficient of the flood series (i.e., the station skew) is sensitive to extreme events. The
overall accuracy of the method is improved by using a weighted value of skew in lieu of the station
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skew. First, a value of regional skew is obtained, and the weighted skew is calculated by weighing
station and regional skews in inverse proportion to their mean square errors (MSE). The formula for
weighted skew is the following:

(MSE)sr Csy + (MSE)sy Csr

Csw = ________________________________ (6-33)
(MSE)sr + (MSE)sy

in which Csw = weighted skew; Csy = station skew; Csr = regional skew; (MSE)sy = mean square error
of the station skew; and (MSE)sr = mean square error of the regional skew.

To develop a value of regional skew, it is necessary to assemble data from at least 40 stations or,
alternatively, all stations within a 160-km radius. The stations should have at least 25 y of record. In
certain cases, the paucity of data may require a relaxation of these criteria. The procedure includes
analysis by three methods: (1) skew isolines map, (2) skew prediction equation, and (3) statistics of
station skews.

To develop a skew isolines map, each station skew is plotted on a map at the centroid of its
catchment area, and the plotted data are examined to identify any geographic or topographic trends.
If a pattern is evident, isolines (lines of equal skew) are drawn and the MSE is computed. The MSE is
the mean of the square of the differences between observed skews and isoline skews. If no pattern is
evident, an isoline map cannot be developed, and this method is not considered further.

In the second method, a prediction equation is used to relate station skew to catchment properties
and climatological variables. The MSE is the mean of the square of the differences between observed
and predicted skews.

In the third method, the mean and variance of the station skews are calculated. In some cases, the
variability of runoff may be such that all the stations may not be hydrologically homogeneous. If this is
the case, the values of about 20 stations can be used to calculate the mean and variance of the data.

Of the three methods, the one providing the most accurate estimate of skew coefficient is selected.
First a comparison of the MSEs from the isolines map and prediction equations is made. Then the
smaller MSE is compared to the variance of the data. If the smaller MSE is significantly smaller than
the variance, it should be used in Eq. 6-33 as (MSE)sr. If this is not the case, the variance should be
used as (MSE)sr, with the mean of the station skews used as regional skew (Csr).

In the absence of regional skew studies, generalized values of regional skew for use in Eq. 6-33 can
be obtained from Fig. 6-5. When regional skew is obtained from this figure, the mean square error of
the regional skew is MSEsr = 0.302. The mean square error of the station skew is approximated by
the following formula:

(MSE)sy = 10 A - B log (n/10) (6-34)

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in which

A = - 0.33 + 0.08G, for G < 0.9 (6-34a)

A = 0.52 + 0.30G, for G ≥ 0.9 (6-34b)

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B = 0.94 - 0.26G, for G < 1.5 (6-34c)

B = 0.55, for G ≥ 1.5 (6-34d)

with G = absolute value of the station skew, and n = record length in years.

Figure 6-5 Generalized skew coefficient of logarithms of annual maximum streamflow [31] (Click -here- to display).

Example 6-5.

A station in San Diego, California, has flood records for 34 y, with station skew Csy = - 0.1. Calculate a
weighted skew following Eq. 6-33 and Fig. 6-5.

From Fig. 6-5, the generalized value of regional skew is Csr = -0.3. The MSE of the station skew is
calculated by Eq. 6-34, with G = 0.1: (MSE)sy = 0.156. Therefore, the weighted skew is (Eq. 6-33):
Csw = - 0.168.

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Treatment of Outliers. Outliers are data points that depart significantly from the overall trend of the
data. The treatment of these outliers (i.e., their retention, modification, or deletion) may have a
significant effect on the value of the statistical parameters computed from the data, particularly for
small samples. Procedures for treatment of outliers invariably require judgment involving
mathematical and hydrologic considerations.
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The detection and treatment of high and low outliers in the log Pearson III method is performed in the
following way [31]. For station skew greater than +0.4, tests for high outliers are considered first. For
station skew less than -0.4, tests for low outliers are considered first. For station skew in the range
-0.4 to +0.4, tests for high and low outliers are considered simultaneously, without eliminating any
outliers from the data.

The following equation is used to detect high outliers:

yH = ȳ + Kn sy (6-35)

in which yH = high outlier threshold (in log units); and Kn = outlier frequency factor, a function of
record length n. Values of yH are given in Table A-7 (Appendix A).

Values of yi (logarithms of the flood series) greater than yH are considered to be high outliers. If there
is sufficient evidence to indicate that a high outlier is a maximum in an extended period of time, it is
treated as historical data. Otherwise, it is retained as part of the flood series.

Historical data refers to flood information outside of the flood series, which may be used to extend the
record to a period much longer than that of the flood series. Historical knowledge is used to define the
historical period H, which is longer than the record period n. The number z of events that are known
to be the largest in the historical period are given a weight of 1. The remaining n events from the flood
series are given a weight of (H - z)/n. For instance, for a record length n = 44 y, a historical period H =
77 y, and a number of peaks in the historical period z = 3, the weight applied to the three historical
peaks would be 1, and the weight applied to the remaining flood series would be (77 - 3)/44 = 1.68. In
other words, the record is extended to 77 y, and the 44 y of flood series (excluding outliers that have
been considered part of the historical data) represent 74 y of data in the historical period of 77 y [31].

The following equation is used to detect low outliers:

yL = ȳ - Kn sy (6-36)

in which yL = low outlier threshold (in log units) and other terms are as defined previously. If an
adjustment for historical data has been previously made, the values on the right-hand side of Eq. 6-36
are those previously used in the historically weighted computation. Values of yi smaller than yL are
considered to be low outliers and deleted from the flood series [31].

Complements to Flood Frequency Estimates. The accuracy of flood estimates based on frequency
analysis deteriorates for values of probability much greater than the record length. This is due to
sampling error and to the fact that the underlying distribution is not known with certainty. Alternative
procedures that complement the information provided by flood frequency analysis are recommended.
These procedures include flood estimates from precipitation data (e.g., unit hydrograph, Chapter 5)
and comparison with catchments of similar hydrologic characteristics (regional analysis, Chapter 7).

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Table 6-4 shows the relationship between the various types of analysis used in flood frequency
studies.

Table 6-4 Types of analyses used in flood frequency studies [31].

Record length n (y) 56:09

Description
10 - 24 25 - 49 ≥ 50

Statistical analysis of flood frequency ✓ ✓ ✓

Comparisons with similar catchments ✓ ✓ -

Flood estimates from precipitation ✓ - -

Gumbel's Extreme Value Type I Method

The extreme value Type I distribution, also known as the Gumbel method [16], or EVl, has been
widely used in the United States and other countries. The method is a special case of the three-
parameter GEV distribution described in the British Flood Studies Report [23].

The cumulative density function F(x) of the Gumbel method is the double exponential, Eq. 6-19,
repeated here for convenience:

-y
F(x) = e -e (6-19)

in which F(x) is the probability of nonexceedance. In flood frequency analysis, the probability of
interest is the probability of exceedance, i.e., the complementary probability to F(x):

G(x ) = 1 - F(x ) (6-37)

The return period T is the reciprocal of the probability of exceedance. Therefore,

1
-y
_____ = 1 - e -e (6-38)
T

From Eq. 6-38:

T
y = - ln ln _______ (6-39)
T-1

In the Gumbel method, values of flood discharge are obtained from the frequency formula, Eq. 6-29,
repeated here for convenience:

x = x̄ + K s (6-29)

The frequency factor K is evaluated with the frequency formula:

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y = ȳn + K σn (6-40)

in which y = Gumbel (reduced) variate, a function of return period (Eq. 6-39); and ȳn and σn are the
mean and standard deviation of the Gumbel variate, respectively. These values are a function of
record length n (see Table A-8, Appendix A).
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In Eq. 6-29, for K = 0, x is equal to the mean annual flood x̄. Likewise, in Eq. 6-40, for K = 0, the
Gumbel variate y is equal to its mean ȳn. The limiting value of ȳn, for n → ∞ is the Euler constant,
0.5772 [28]. In Eq. 6-38, for y = 0.5772: T = 2.33 years. Therefore, the return period of 2.33 y is taken
as the return period of the mean annual flood.

From Eqs. 6-29 and 6-40:

y - ȳn
x = x̄ + ___________ s (6-41)
σn

and with Eq. 6-39:

ln ln [T / (T - 1)] + ȳn
x = x̄ - __________________________ s (6-42)
σn

The following steps are necessary to apply the Gumbel method:

1. Assemble the flood series.

2. Calculate the mean x̄ and standard deviation s of the flood series.

3. Use Table A-8 to determine the mean ȳn and standard deviation σn of the Gumbel variate as a
function of record length n.

4. Select several return periods Tj and associated exceedance probabilities Pj.

5. Calculate the Gumbel variates yj corresponding to the return periods Tj by using Eq. 6-39, and
calculate the flood discharge Qj = xj for each Gumbel variate (and associated return period)
using Eq. 6-41. Alternatively, the flood discharges can be calculated directly for each return
period by using Eq. 6-42.

Values of Q are plotted against y or T (or P) on Gumbel probability paper, and a straight line is drawn
through the points. Gumbel probability paper has an arithmetic scale of Gumbel variate y in the
abscissas and an arithmetic scale of flood discharge Q in the ordinates. To facilitate the reading of
frequencies and probabilities, Eq. 6-38 may be used to superimpose a scale of return period T (or
probability P) on the arithmetic scale of Gumbel variate y.

Example 6-6.

Apply the Gumbel method to the flood series of Example 6-3. Plot the results on Gumbel paper along with
the plotting positions calculated in Example 6-3.

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The mean and standard deviation of the flood series are: x̄ = 1704 m3/s and s = 795 m3/s. From Table A-8.
for n = 16, the mean and standard deviation of the Gumbel variate are ȳ = 0.5157 and σn = 1.0316. The
results are shown in Table 6-5. Columns 1 and 2 show selected return periods T and associated
exceedance probabilities (in percent). Column 3 shows the values of Gumbel variate calculated by Eq. 6-39.
Column 4 shows the flood discharge Q calculated by Eq. 6-41 for each variate y, return period T, and
associated exceedance probability P. The flood discharges define a straight line when plotted versus return
period on Gumbel paper, as shown by the solid line of Fig. 6-6. Plotting positions calculated by Example 6-3 56:09
are shown for comparison purposes.

Table 6-5 Gumbel method: Example 6-6.

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Return period T Probability P Gumbel variate Flood discharge Q

(y) (percent) y (m3/s)

1.05 95 - 1.113 449

1.11 90 - 0.838 661

1.25 80 - 0.476 940

2 50 0.367 1590

5 20 1.500 2462

10 10 2.250 3040

25 4 3.199 3772

50 2 3.902 4314

100 1 4.600 4851

200 0.5 5.296 5388

ONLINE CALCULATION. Using ONLINE GUMBEL, the results are essentially the same, varying
from Q = 447 m3/s for T = 1.05 y, to Q = 5396 m3/s for T = 200 y.

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Figure 6-6 Flood frequency analysis by Gumbel method: Example 6-6.

Modifications to the Gumbel Method. Since its inception in the 1940s, several modifications to the
Gumbel method have been proposed. Gringorten [12] has shown that the Gumbel distribution does
not follow the Weibull plotting rule, Eq. 6- 26 (or Eq. 6-27 with a = 0). He recommended a = 0.44,
which led to the Gringorten plotting position formula:

1 m - 0.44
____ = P = _______________ (6-43)
T n + 0.12

Lettenmaier and Burges [22] have suggested that better flood estimates are obtained by using the
limiting values of mean and standard deviation of the Gumbel variate (i.e., those corresponding to
n = ∞) in Eq. 6-40, instead of basing these values on the record length. In this case, ȳn = 0.5772, and

σn = π / 61/2 = 1.2825. Therefore, Eq. 6-41 reduces to

x = x̄ + (0.78 y - 0.45) s (6-44)

and Eq. 6-42 reduces to

T
x = x̄ + (0.78 ln ln _______ + 0.45) s (6-45)
T-1

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Lettenmaier and Burges [22] have also suggested that a biased variance estimate, using n as the
divisor in Eq. 6-3, yields better estimates of extreme events that the usual unbiased estimate, that is,
the divisor n - 1.

Comparison Between Flood Frequency Methods

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In 1966, the Hydrology Subcommittee of the U.S. Water Resources Council began work on selecting
a suitable method of flood frequency analysis that could be recommended for general use in the
United States.

The committee tested the goodness of fit of six distributions: (1) lognormal, (2) log Pearson III, (3)
Hazen, (4) gamma, (5) Gumbel (EV1) and (6) log Gumbel (EV2). The study included ten sets of
records, the shortest of which was 40 y. The findings showed that the first three distributions had
smaller average deviations that the last three. Since the Hazen distribution is a type of lognormal
distribution and the lognormal is a special case of the log Pearson III, the Committee concluded that
the latter was the most appropriate of the three, and hence recommended it for general use.

The same type of analysis was repeated for six sets of records in the United Kingdom, the shortest of
which was 32 y [2]. The methods were: (1) gamma, (2) log gamma, (3) lognormal, (4) Gumbel (EV1),
(5) GEV, (6) Pearson Type III, and (7) log Pearson III. At low return periods (from 2 to 5 y), the GEV
and Pearson Type III showed the smallest average deviations, whereas for return periods exceeding
10 y the log Pearson III method had the smallest average deviations.

Similar comparative studies were reported in the British Flood Studies Report [23]. The study
concluded that the three-parameter distributions (GEV, Pearson Type III, and log Pearson III)
provided a better fit than the two-parameter distributions (Gumbel, lognormal, gamma, log gamma).
Based on mean absolute deviation criteria, the study rated the log Pearson III method better than the
GEV and the latter better than the Pearson Type III. However, based on root mean square deviation,
it rated the Pearson Type III better than both the log Pearson III and GEV distributions.

Although in general, the three-parameter methods seemed to fare better than the two-parameter
methods, the latter should not be completely discarded. The British Flood Studies Report [23]
observed that their use in connection with short record lengths often leads to results which are more
sensible than those obtained by fitting three-parameter distributions. A three-parameter distribution
fitted to a small sample may in some cases imply that there is an upper bound to the flood discharge
equal to about twice the mean annual flood. While there may be an upper limit to flood magnitude, it
is certainly higher than twice the mean annual flood.

6.3 LOW-FLOW FREQUENCY

[Droughts] [Questions] [Problems] [References] • [Top] [Concepts of Statistics] [Frequency Analysis]

W hereas high flows lead to floods, sustained low flows can lead to droughts. A drought is defined
as a lack of rainfall so great and continuing so long as to affect the plant and animal life of a region
adversely and to deplete domestic and industrial water supplies, especially in those regions where
rainfall is normally sufficient for such purposes [18].

In practice, a drought refers to a period of unusually low water supplies, regardless of the water
demand. The regions most subject to droughts are those with the greatest variability in annual rainfall.

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Studies have shown that regions where the variance coefficient of annual rainfall exceeds 0.35 are
more likely to have frequent droughts [6]. Low annual rainfall and high annual rainfall variability are
typical of arid and semiarid regions. Therefore, these regions are more likely to be prone to droughts.

Studies of tree rings, which document long term trends of rainfall, show clear patterns of periods of
wet and dry weather [30]. While there is no apparent explanation for the cycles of wet and 56:09
dry
weather, the dry years must be considered in planning water resource projects. Analysis of long
records has shown that there is a tendency for dry years to group together. This indicates that the
sequence of dry years is not random, with dry years tending to follow other dry years. It is therefore
necessary to consider both the severity and duration of a drought period.

The severity of droughts can be established by measuring:

1. The deficiency in rainfall and runoff,

2. The decline of soil moisture, and/or

3. The decrease in groundwater levels.

Alternatively, low-flow-frequency analysis can be used in the assessment of the probability of

occurrence of droughts of different durations.

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Figure 6-7 Low-flow frequency curves [28].

Methods of low-flow frequency analysis are based on an assumption of invariance of meteorological

conditions. The absence of long records, however, imposes a stringent limitation on low-flow
frequency analysis. When records of sufficient length are available, analysis begins with the
identification of the low-flow series. Either the annual minima or the annual exceedance series are
used. In a monthly analysis, the annual minima series is formed by the lowest monthly flow volumes
in each year of record. If the annual exceedance method is chosen, the lowest monthly flow volumes
in the record are selected, regardless of when they occurred. In the latter method, the number of
values in the series need not be equal to the number of years of record.

A flow duration curve can be used to give an indication of the severity of low flows. Such a curve,
however, does not contain information on the sequence of low flows or the duration of possible
droughts. The analysis is made more meaningful by abstracting the minimum flows over a period of
several consecutive days. For instance, for each year, the 7-day period with minimum flow volume is
abstracted, and the minimum flow is the average flow rate for that period. A frequency analysis on the
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low-flow series, using the Gumbel method, for instance, results in a function describing the probability
of occurrence of low flows of a certain duration. The same analysis repeated for other durations leads
to a family of curves depicting low-flow frequency, as shown in Fig. 6-7 [28].

In reservoir design, the assessment of low flows is aided by a flow-mass curve. The technique
involves the determination of storage volumes required for all low-flow periods. Although56:09 it is
practically impossible to provide sufficient storage to meet hydrologic risks of great rarity, common
practice is to provide for a stated risk (i.e., a drought probability) and to add a suitable percent of the
computed storage volume as reserve storage allowance. The variance coefficient of annual flows is
used in determining the risk and storage allowance levels. Extraordinary drought levels are then met
by cutting draft rates.

Regulated rivers may alter natural flow conditions to provide a minimum downstream flow for specific
purposes. In this case, the reservoirs serve as the mechanism to diffuse the natural flow variability
into downstream flows which can be made to be nearly constant in time. Regulation is necessary for
downstream low-flow maintenance, usually for the purpose of meeting agricultural, municipal and
industrial water demands, minimum instream flows, navigation draft, and water pollution control
regulations.

6.4 DROUGHTS

[Questions] [Problems] [References] • [Top] [Concepts of Statistics] [Frequency Analysis] [Low-flow Frequency]

D rought is a weather-related natural phenomenon, affecting regions of the Earth for months or
years. It has an impact on food production, reducing life expectancy and the economic performance
of large geographic regions or entire countries.

Drought is a recurrent feature of the climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic zones, with its
characteristics varying significantly among regions. Drought differs from aridity in that drought is
temporary; aridity is a permanent characteristic of regions with low rainfall.

Drought is related to a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually for a
season or more (Fig. 6-8). This deficiency results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or
environmental sector. Drought is also related to the timing of precipitation. Other climatic factors such
as high temperature, high wind, and low relative humidity are often associated with drought.

Drought is more than a physical phenomenon or natural event. Its impact results from the relation
between a natural event and the demands on the water supply, and it is often exacerbated by human
activities. The experience from droughts has underscored the vulnerability of human societies to this
natural hazard.

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Figure 6-8 Backlands in Rio Grande do Norte, in the drought-stricken Brazilian Northeast.

Definition of drought

Drought definitions are of two types: (1) conceptual, and (2) operational. Conceptual definitions help
understand the meaning of drought and its effects. For example, drought is a protracted period of
precipitation deficiency which causes extensive damage to crops, resulting in loss of yield.

Operational definitions help identify the drought's beginning, end, and degree of severity. To
determine the beginning of drought, operational definitions specify the degree of departure from the
precipitation average over some time period. This is usually accomplished by comparing the current
situation (the study period) with the historical average. The threshold identified as the beginning of a
drought (e.g., 75% of average precipitation over a specified time period) is usually established
somewhat arbitrarily.

An operational definition for agriculture may compare daily precipitation to evapotranspiration to

determine the rate of soil-moisture depletion, and express these relationships in terms of drought
effects on plant behavior. Operational definitions are used to analyze drought frequency, severity, and
duration for a given historical period. Such definitions, however, require weather data on hourly, daily,
monthly, or other time scales and, possibly, impact data (e.g., crop yield). A climatology of drought for
a given region provides a greater understanding of its characteristics and the probability of recurrence
at various levels of severity. Information of this type is beneficial in the formulation of mitigation
strategies.

Types of droughts

The following types of drought have been identified:

1. Meteorological drought,

2. Agricultural drought,

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3. Hydrological drought, and

4. Socieoeconomic drought.

Meteorological drought is defined on the basis of the degree of dryness, in comparison to a normal
or average amount, and the duration of the dry period. Definitions of meteorological drought must be
region-specific, since the atmospheric conditions that result in deficiencies of precipitation are 56:09
highly
variable.

The variety of meteorological definitions in different countries illustrates why it is not possible to apply
a definition of drought developed in one part of the world to another. For instance, the following
definitions of drought have been reported:

United States (1942): Less than 2.5 mm of rainfall in 48 hours.

Great Britain (1936): Fifteen consecutive days with daily precipitation less than 0.25 mm.

Libya (1964): When annual rainfall is less than 180 mm.

Bali (1964): A period of six days without rain.

Data sets required to assess meteorological drought are: (1) daily rainfall, (2) temperature, (3)
humidity, (4) wind velocity, and (5) evaporation.

Agricultural drought links various characteristics of meteorological drought to agricultural impacts,

focusing on precipitation shortages, differences between actual and potential evapotranspiration, soil-
water deficits, reduced groundwater or reservoir levels, and so on. Plant water demand depends on
prevailing weather conditions, biological characteristics of the specific plant, its stage of growth, and
the physical and biological properties of the soil. A good definition of agricultural drought should
account for the susceptibility of crops during different stages of crop development. Deficient topsoil
moisture at planting may hinder germination, leading to low plant populations per hectare and a
reduction of yield.

Data sets required to assess agricultural drought are: (1) soil texture, (2) soil fertility, (3) soil moisture,
(4) crop type and area, (5) crop water requirements, (6) pests, and (7) climate.

Hydrological drought refers to a persistently low discharge and/or volume of water in streams and
reservoirs, lasting months or years. Hydrological drought is a natural phenomenon, but it may be
exacerbated by human activities. Hydrological droughts are usually related to meteorological
droughts, and their recurrence interval varies accordingly. Changes in land use and land degradation
can affect the magnitude and frequency of hydrological droughts.

Data sets required to assess hydrological drought are: (1) surface-water area and volume, (2) surface
runoff, (3) streamflow measurements, (4) infiltration, (5) water-table fluctuations, and (6) aquifer
properties.

Socioeconomic drought associates the supply and demand of some economic good with elements
of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought. It differs from the other types of drought in
that its occurrence depends on the processes of supply and demand. The supply of many economic
goods, such as water, forage, food grains, fish, and hydroelectric power, depends on the weather.
Due to the natural variability of climate, water supply is ample in some years but insufficient to meet
human and environmental needs in other years.
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Socioeconomic drought occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds the supply as a
result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply. The drought may result in significantly reduced
hydroelectric power production because power plants were dependent on streamflow rather than
storage for power generation. Reducing hydroelectric power production may require the government
to convert to more expensive petroleum alternatives and to commit to stringent energy conservation
measures to meet its power needs. 56:09

The demand for economic goods is increasing as a result of population growth and economic
development. The supply may also increase because of improved production efficiency, technology,
or the construction of reservoirs. When both supply and demand increase, the critical factor is their
relative rate of change. Socioeconomic drought is promoted when the demand for water for economic
activities far exceeds the supply.

Data sets required to assess socioeconomic drought are: (1) human and animal population, (2)
growth rate, (3) water and fodder requirements, (4) severity of crop failure, and (5) industry type and
water requirements.

Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations

The relations between intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts may be analyzed by the
conceptual model described in Table 6-6 [27]. The conceptual approach is applicable to
meteorological droughts lasting at least one year, in midlatitudinal regions where the prevailing
climate may be primarily characterized by precipitation.

The climate types, from superarid to superhumid, are defined in terms of mean annual precipitation
Pma (mm) as shown in Table 6-6, Line 1:

• Superarid: Pma ≤ 100

• Hyperarid: 100 < Pma ≤ 200

• Arid: 200 < Pma ≤ 400

• Semiarid: 400 < Pma ≤ 800

• Subhumid: 800 < Pma ≤ 1600

• Humid: 1600 < Pma ≤ 3200

• Hyperhumid: 3200 < Pma ≤ 6400

• Superhumid: Pma > 6400

The (mean) annual global terrestrial precipitation is Pagt = 800 mm [27]. At the extremes of the
climatic spectrum, mean annual precipitation is less than 100 mm (superarid), or greater than 6400
mm (superhumid). The superarid example is the Atacama desert, in northern Chile, with mean annual
precipitation Pma = 0.5 mm, which is hardly measurable. The superhumid example is Cherrapunji, in
Meghalaya, Esatern India, with mean annual precipitation Pma = 11,777 mm, long considered by
many as the wettest spot on Earth. However, Mawsynran, near Cherrapunji, now boasts Pma =
11,873 mm, effectively edging out Cherrapunji of the distinction.
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Climates types may also be defined as the ratio of mean annual precipitation Pma to (mean) annual
global terrestrial precipitation Pagt (Line 2). The ratio Pma/Pagt = 1 depicts the middle of the climatic
spectrum.

The conceptual model is also defined in terms of the annual potential evaporation
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(evapotranspiration) Eap (Line 3) and of the ratio of annual potential evaporation to mean annual
precipitation Eap/Pma (Line 4). The ratio Eap/Pma = 2 describes the middle of the climatic spectrum.
To complement the description, the length of the rainy season Lrs is also indicated (Line 5).

Table 6-6 Conceptual model of intensity-duration-frequency of droughts [27].

Superarid Hyperarid Arid Semiarid Subhumid Humid Hyperhumid Superhumid

Description ← → → → → → → →

Mean annual
1 precipitation 100 200 400 800 1600 3200 6400
Pma (mm)

2 Pma / Pagt 0.125 0.25 0.5 1 2 4 8

Annual potential
3 evaporation 3000 2400 2000 1600 1200 1200 1200
Eap (mm)

4 Eap / Pma 30 12 5 2 0.75 0.375 0.1875

Length of rainy
5 season 1 2 3 4 6 9 12
Lrs (mo)

6 Moderate 0.25 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.5 0.25

7
• Severe 0.5 1 2 3 2 1 0.5
Drought
Intensity
8 Extreme 0.75 1.5 3 4.5 3 1.5 0.75

9 • Drought duration 1 2 4 6 4 2 1
(yr)

10 • Drought 2 3 6 12 25 50 +100
frequency-1 (yr)

For any year for which P is the annual precipitation, drought intensity I is defined as the ratio of the
deficit (Pma - P) to the mean (Pma). For any year, an intensity I = 0.25 is classified as moderate;
I = 0.5 as severe, and I = 0.75 as extreme. For drought durations lasting two years or more, intensity
is the summation of the individual annual intensities (Lines 6-8, Table 6-6). Therefore, the longer the
drought duration, the greater the drought intensity. Extreme intensities are generally associated with
droughts of long duration.

Experience has shown that the longer droughts generally occur around the middle of the climatic
spectrum (800 mm of mean annual precipitation). Drought duration varies between 1 yr (or less) at
the extremes of the climatic spectrum and (about) 6 yr around the middle (Line 9) [26]. Droughts
lasting more than 6 yr are uncommon; they are more likely to be driven by anthropogenic pressures,

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for instance, deforestation or overgrazing [25]. A classical example of an anthropogenically derived

drought is that of the Sahel, in Northern Africa (Fig. 6-9), where, in the past 40 years, droughts have
had a tendency to persist for durations much longer than normal.

56:09

Figure 6-9 Mean annual precipitation in the Sahel, North Africa.

Figure 6-10 shows values of standarized annual seasonal rainfall (June-October) in the Sahel for the
period 1898-2004. The standarized annual rainfall has zero mean and unit standard deviation. Note
that through the 1980s, drought in the Sahel persisted for more than 10 years.

Figure 6-10 Standarized annual rainfall in the Sahel for the period 1898-2004.

In general, the dry periods (drought events) are followed by corresponding wet periods. Therefore,
the drought recurrence interval (i.e., the reciprocal of the frequency) is always greater than the

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drought duration. Drought recurrence intervals increase from 2 year on the extreme dry side of the
climatic spectrum (superarid) to (more than) 100 years on the extreme wet side (superhumid) (Line
10, Table 6-6).

QUESTIONS
56:09
[Problems] [References] • [Top] [Concepts of Statistics] [Frequency Analysis] [Low-flow Frequency] [Droughts]

1. In statistical analysis, what are the measures of central tendency? Explain.

2. What is skewness? A distribution with a long tail on the right side has positive or negative
skewness?

3. What are the parameters of the gamma distribution? How are the gamma and Pearson Type III
distributions related?

4. What is the parameter that distinguishes the three extreme value distributions? What is the
limiting value of the mean of the Gumbel variate?

5. What is the difference between the annual exceedance series and the annual maxima series?
What is risk in the context of frequency analysis?

6. How is an extreme value probability paper constructed? What type of probability paper is used
in the log Pearson Type III method?

7. What is the difference between the Weibull, Blom, and Gringorten plotting position formulas?

8. How is skewness variability accounted for in the log Pearson III method?

9. When are high outliers considered part of historical data? When is it necessary to perform a
historically weighted computation?

10. Why are two-parameter distributions such as the Gumbel distribution appropiate for use in
connection with short record lengths?

11. Compare floods and droughts from the standpoint of frequency analysis.

12. What is the mean annual precipitation in the middle of the climatic spectrum?

13. What is the mean annual potential evaporation in the middle of the climatic spectrum?

14. Why are the droughts in the Sahel likely to persist much longer than normal?

PROBLEMS

[References] • [Top] [Concepts of Statistics] [Frequency Analysis] [Low-flow Frequency] [Droughts] [Questions]

1. Develop a spread sheet to calculate the mean, standard deviation, and skew coefficient of a
series of annual maximum flows. Test your work using the data of Example 6-1 in the text.

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2. The annual maximum flows of a certain stream have been found to be normally distributed with
mean 22,500 ft3/s and standard deviation 7500 ft3/s. Calculate the probability that a flow larger
than 39,000 ft3/s will occur.

3. The 10-y and 25-y floods of a certain stream are 73 and 84 m3/s, respectively. Assuming a
56:09
normal distribution, calculate the 50-y and 100-y floods.

4. The low flows of a certain stream have been shown to follow a normal distribution. The flows
expected to be exceeded 95% and 90% of the time are 15 and 21 m3/s, respectively. What flow
can be expected to be exceeded 80% of the time?

5. A temporary cofferdam for a 5-y dam construction period is designed to pass the 25-y flood.
What is the risk that the cofferdam may fail before the end of the construction period? What
design return period is needed to reduce the risk to less than 10%?

6. Use the Weibull formula (Eq. 6-26) to calculate the plotting positions for the following series of
annual maxima, in cubic feet per second: 1305, 3250, 4735, 5210, 4210, 2120, 2830, 3585,
7205, 1930, 2520, 3250, 5105, 4830, 2020, 2530, 3825, 3500, 2970, 1215.

7. Use the Gringorten formula to calculate the plotting positions for the following series of annual
maxima, in cubic meters per second: 160, 350, 275, 482, 530, 390, 283, 195, 408, 307, 625,
513.

8. Modify the spread sheet of Problem 6-1 to calculate the mean, standard deviation, and skew
coefficients of the logarithms of a series of annual maximum flows. Test your work using the
results of Example 6-4 in the text.

9. Fit a log Pearson III curve to the data of Problem 6-6. Plot the calculated distribution on log
probability paper, along with the Weibull plotting positions calculated in Problem 6-6.

10. Fit a Gumbel curve to the data of Problem 6-6. Plot the calculated distribution on Gumbel paper,
along with the Weibull plotting positions calculated in Problem 6-6.

11. Develop a spread sheet to read a series of annual maxima, sort the data in descending order,
and compute the corresponding plotting positions (percent chance and retum period) by the
Weibull and Gringorten formulas.

12. Given the following statistics of annual maxima for stream X: number of years n = 35;
mean = 3545 ft3/s; standard deviation = 1870 ft3/s. Compute the 100-y flood by the Gumbel
method.

13. Given the following statistics of annual maxima for river Y: number of years n = 45;
mean = 2700 m3/s; standard deviation 1300 m3/s; mean of the logarithms = 3.1; standard
deviation of the logarithms = 0.4; skew coefficient of the logarithms = - 0.35. Compute the 100-y
flood using the following probability distributions: (a) normal, (b) Gumbel, and (c) log Pearson III.

14. A station near Denver, Colorado, has flood records for 48 y, with station skew Csy = - 0.18.
Calculate a weighted skew coefficient.

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15. Determine if the value Q = 13,800 ft3/s is a high outlier in a 45-y flood series with the following
statistics: mean of the logarithms = 3.572; standard deviation of the logarithms = 0.215.

16. Using the Lettenmaier and Burges modification to the Gumbel method, fit a Gumbel curve to the
data of Example 6-6 in the text. Plot the calculated distribution on Gumbel paper, along with
plotting positions calculated by the Gringorten formula. 56:09

REFERENCES

• [Top] [Concepts of Statistics] [Frequency Analysis] [Low-flow Frequency] [Droughts] [Questions] [Problems]

1. Benson, M. A. (1962). "Plotting Positions and Economics of Engineering Planning," Journal of

the Hydraulics Division, ASCE, Vol. 88, November, pp. 57-71.

2. Benson, M. A. (1968). "Uniform Flood Frequency Estimating Methods for Federal Agencies,"
Water Resources Research, Vol. 4, pp. 891-908.

3. Blom, G. (1958). Statistical Estimates and Transformed Beta Variables. New York: John Wiley.

4. Casella, G., and R. L. Berger. (1990). Statistical Inference, Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole, Pacific
Grove, California.

5. Chow, V. T. (1951). "A General Formula for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis," Transactions,
American Geophysical Union, Vol. 32, pp. 231-237.

6. Chow, V. T. (1964). Handbook of Applied Hydrology. New York: McGraw-Hill.

7. Cunnane, C. (1978). "Unbiased Plotting Positions-A Review," Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 37, pp.
205-222.

8. Fisher, R. A., and L. H. C. Tippett. (1928). "Limiting Forms of a Frequency Distribution of the
Smallest and Largest Member of a Sample," Proceedings, Cambridge Philosophical Society,
Vol. 24, pp.180-190.

9. Foster, H. A. (1924). "Theoretical Frequency Curves and their Application to Engineering

Problems," Transactions, ASCE, Vol. 87, pp. 142-173.

10. Frechet, M. (1927). "Sur la loi de Probabilite de l'ecart Maximum," (On the Probability Law of
Maximum Error), Annals of the Polish Mathematical Society, (Cracow), Vol. 6, pp. 93-116.

11. Fuller, W. E. (1914). "Flood Flows," Transactions, ASCE, Vol. 77, pp. 564-617.

12. Gringorten, 1.1. (1963). "A Plotting Rule for Extreme Probability Paper," Journal of Geophysical
Research, Vol. 68, No.3, February, pp. 813-814.

13. Gumbel, E. J. (1941). "Probability Interpretation of the Observed Return Periods of Floods,"
Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Vol. 21, pp. 836-850.

14. Gumbel, E. J. (1942). "Statistical Control Curves for Flood Discharges," Transactions, American
Geophysical Union, Vol. 23, pp. 489-500.

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15. K Gumbel , E. J. (1943). "On the Plotting of Flood Discharges," Transactions, American
Geophysical Union, Vol. 24, pp. 699-719.

16. Gumbel, E. J. (1958). Statistics of Extremes. Irvington, N.Y.: Columbia University Press.

17. Hazen, A. (1914). Discussion on "Flood Flows," by W. E. Fuller, Transactions, ASCE, Vol. 77, p.
56:09
628.

18. Havens, A. V. (1954). "Drought and Agriculture," Weatherwise, Vol. 7, pp. 51-55.

19. Horton, R. E. (1913). "Frequency of Recurrence of Hudson River Floods," U.S. Weather Bureau
Bulletin Z, pp. 109-112.

20. Jenkinson, A. F. (1955). "The Frequency Distributions of the Annual Maximum (or Minimum)
Values of Meteorological Elements," Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol.
87, p. 158.

21. Kite, G. W. (1977). Frequency and Risk Analyses in Hydrology. Fort Collins, Colorado: Water
Resources Publications.

22. Lettenmaier, D. P., and S. J. Burges. (1982). "Gumbel's Extreme Value Distribution: A New
Look," Journal of the Hydraulics Division, ASCE, Vol. 108, No. HY4, April, pp. 503-514.

23. Natural Environment Research Council. (1975). Flood Studies Report. Vol. 1 (of 5 volumes),
London, England.

24. Pearson, K. (1930). "Tables for Statisticians and Biometricians," Part I, 3d. Ed. , The Biometric
Laboratory, University College. London: Cambridge University Press.

25. Ponce, V. M., A. K. Lohani, and P. T. Huston. (1997). "Surface albedo and water resources:
Hydroclimatological impact of human activities." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, Vol.
2, No. 4, October, 197-203.

26. Ponce, V. M., R. P. Pandey, and S. Ercan. (1999). "A conceptual model of drought
characterization across the climatic spectrum." Revista de Estudos Ambientais, Vol. 1, No. 3,
September-December, 68-76.

27. Ponce, V. M., R. P. Pandey, and S. Ercan. (2000). "Characterization of drought across climatic
spectrum." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 5, No. 2, April, 222-224.

28. Riggs, H. C. (1972). "Low-Flow Investigations," Techniques of Water Resources Investigations

of the United States Geological Survey, Book 4, Chapter B1.

29. Spiegel, M. Mathematical Handbook of Formulas and Tables. Schaum's Outline Series in
Mathematics. New York: McGraw-Hill.

30. Troxell, H. C. (1937). "Water Resources of Southern California with Special Reference to the
Drought of 1944-51," U.S. Geological Survey Water Supply Paper No. 1366.

31. U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, Hydrology Subcommittee. (1983).
"Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency," Bulletin No. 17B, issued 1981, revised
1983, Reston, Virginia.

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Suggested Readings

Gumbel, E. J. (1958). Statistics of Extremes. Irvington, N.Y.: Columbia University Press.

Natural Environment Research Council. (1975). Flood Studies Report, in 5 volumes, London,
England.
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Riggs, H. C. (1972). "Low-Flow Investigations," Techniques of Water Resources Investigations
of the United States Geological Survey, Book 4, Chapter B1.

U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, Hydrology Subcommittee. (1983).

"Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency," Bulletin No. 17B, issued 1981, revised
1983, Reston, Virginia.

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