BBA 25/10/2021

Abdurrahman Sabir
[email protected]
MPhil Schoolar
Probability
In our daily life we often make the statements such as:
It will be probably rain today
I will probably go abroad this year
All these statements are related with uncertainty and can be measured numerically by mean of
“Probability” thus we may simply define probability as (the numeric measure of uncertainty is
called Probability)
Though probability is started with gambling, it has been used extensively in the field of Physical
Science, Commerce, Biological Sciences, Weather Forecasting, Medical sciences etc.
Probability can be discussed from two points of view:
1. Subjective approach
2. Objective approach

1. Subjective Approach
In subjective approach the probability of an event is defined as “the measure of believe in
the occurrence of an event by a particular person”. Probability in this sense is purely
subjective, and is based on whatever evidence is available to the person.

Example:
 A sports-writer may say that there is a 70% probability that Australia will win the
world cup.
 A physician might say that, there is a 30% chance the patient will need an
operation etc.
2. Objective Approach
In Objective approach, the probability of an event is defined in the following three ways:
 Classical or Priori or Theoretical Definition of Probability
 Relative Frequency or Empirical or Experimental Definition of Probability
 The Axiomatic Definition of Probability

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Objective
Approach

Classical Relative Frequency The Axiomatic

Definition Definition Definition

Classical or Priori or Theoretical Definition of Probability

If a random experiment can produce “n” mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes, and if
“m” of these outcomes are favorable to the occurrence of an event “A”, then the probability of
the event “A” is equal to the ratio m/n” If we take P(A) as “the probability of A” then:

P(A) = =

The classical definition has the following shortcomings:

i. This definition is said to involve circular reasoning as the term equally likely really mean
equally probable. Thus probability is defined by introducing concepts that presume a
prior knowledge of the meanings of probability.
ii. This definition is not applicable when the assumption of equally likely does not hold.
iii. This definition becomes vague when the number of possible outcomes may be infinite.
Note: this definition was formulated by the French mathematician P.S Laplace (1749 -1827) and
can be very conveniently used in experiments where the total number of possible outcomes and
the number of outcomes favorable to an event can be determined:
Example: when a fair Coin is tossed, then we know in advance that the possible outcomes are
Head and Tail. Since the Head and Tail are equally likely, therefore, the probability of each is
1/2 or 0.5
Relative Frequency or Empirical or Experimental Definition of Probability
If “m” is the number of occurrences of an event “A” in large number of trials “n”, then the
probability of “A” is the relative frequency of “m” and “n” as the number of trials grows
infinitely large” If we take P(A) as “the probability of A” then:

P(A) =

Example: if a coin has been loaded (unfair), then the probability of Head and Tail will not be
equal to 0.5 i.e. the Head and Tail are not equally likely. Thus for experiments not having
equally likely outcomes if we flip the coin 10 times, say, and observe 4 heads, then, based on this

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information, we say that the chance of observing a head will be 4/10 or 0.4, which is not the
same as 0.5. If, however, we flip the coin a large number of times, we would expect about 50
percent of the flips result in a head.
The Axiomatic Definition
Let S be a sample space with the sample points , , … . To each sample point, we
assign a real number, denoted by P(Ai), and called the probability of Ai, that must satisfy the
following basic axioms:
 Axiom 1: for any event ; 0 ≤ P( ) ≤ 1
 Axiom 2: P(S) = 1
 Axiom 3: if and are mutually exclusive events,
Then P ( ) = P( ) + P( )

In this case P ( ) is defined by the formula:

P ( )) = =

Range of Probability
If the probability of an event is 1, then the event is certain to occur. If the probability of an event
is zero (0), the event is impossible. A probability of 0.5 indicates that an event has an even
chance of occurring. The following graph shows the possible range of probabilities and their
meanings.

Example: A fair coin is tossed only once what is the probability that a Head will appear?
Sol:
Since a coin is tossed
Therefore S = {H, T}
n (S) = 2
Let A denotes the en=vent of getting a head

Then P (A) = = = 0.5

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Example: Two fair coins are tossed simultaneously, what is the probability that at least one head
will appear?
Sol:
Since two coin are tossed
Therefore S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
n (S) = 4
Let A denotes the event of getting at least one head
Then A = {HH, HT, TH} => n (A) => 3

Then P (A) = = = 0.75

Example: A die is rolled find the probability of getting a six?

Sol:
Since a die is rolled
Therefore S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
n(S) = 6
Let A denotes the event of getting a six
Then A = {6} = n (A) = 1

Then P (A) = = = 0.166

Example: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is:
1) Exactly 5
2) At least 9
3) At most 4
4) Even
5) Less than 3
Sol: Since two dice are rolled therefore:
n (S) = {(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)}

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1) The sum is exactly 5

Let A be an event of getting sum is exactly 5
Then A= {(1, 4) (2, 3) (3, 2) (4, 1)} => n (A) = 4

Then P (A) = = = 0.111

2) At least 9
Let B be an event of getting sum is at least 9
Then B = {(3, 6) (4, 5) (4, 6) (5, 4) (5, 5)
(5, 6) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)}
n(B) = 10

Then P (B) = =

3) The sum is at most 4

Let C be an event of getting sum is at most 4
Then C = {(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (2, 1) (2, 2) (3, 1)}
n(C) = 6
Then P (C) = =
4) The sum is even number
Let D denotes an event of getting sum is even
Then D = {(1, 1) (1, 3) (1, 5)
(2, 2) (2, 4) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 3) (3, 5)
(4, 2) (4, 4) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 3) (5, 5)
(6, 2) (6, 4) (6, 6)}
n(D) = 18
Then P (D) = = = = 0.5
5) The sum is less than 3
Let E be an event of getting is less than 3
Then E = {(1, 1)}
n(E) = 1

P (E) = = = 0.027

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Example: A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. Find the
probability that the card drawn is “8”?
Sol: Since a card is drawn therefore
S = {the pack of 52 cards}

 52 
n(S) =   = 52
1
let A be an event that the card is eight

4
then n(A) =   = 4
1

hence P (A) = = = = 0.076

Example: A basket contains 5 white and 4 black balls; what is the probability of selecting 3
white balls?
Sol: Since 3 balls are selected out of 9

9
Therefore n(S) =   = 84
 3
Let W be an event of selecting 3 white balls

5
Then n(w) =   = 10
 3

P (w) = = = 0.119

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Addition Rule of probability

Let “A” and “B” are two mutually exclusive events then the probability that “A” or “B” occurs is
equal to the probability that “A” occurs plus the probability that “B” occurs i.e.
P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Or

P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B)

Example: Suppose that we roll a pair of dice, what is the probability of getting a sum of 5 or a
sum of 11?
Sol: since a pair of dice is rolled therefore
n (S) = {(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)}
Let a be an event of getting sum is exactly 5
Then A = {(1, 4) (2, 3) (3, 2) (4, 1)}

P (A) = =

Let B be an event of getting sum is 11

Then B = {(5, 6) (6, 5)}
n(B) = 2

P (B) = =

Now we have to find P(A or B)and since the two events “A” and “B” are mutually exclusive
(because they cannot occur together)

P (A or B) = P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B) = = = 0.166

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Example: A basket contains 5 white and 4 black balls; what is the probability that a ball drawn at
random is white or black balls?
Sol: Since a ball is drawn out of 9

9
Therefore n(S) =   = 9
1
Let “W” be the event of “drawing a white ball”

5
Let n(W) =   = 5
1

P (W) = =

Let “B” be the event of “drawing a black ball”

4
Let n(B) =   = 4
1

Then P(B) = =

Now we have to find P(W or B) and since the two events “W” and “B” are mutually exclusive
(because they cannot occur together)

P (W or B) = P (W  B) = P (W) + P(B) = =1

Addition Rule of probability

Let “A” and “B” are two not mutually exclusive events then the probability of event “A” or “B”
or “both” occurring is equal to the probability that “A” occurs plus the probability that “B”
occurs minus the probability that “both” events “A” and “B” occur together i.e.
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B)
Or

P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A)

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Example: If a card is selected at random from a deck of 52 playing cards, what is the proability
that the card is a diamond or a picture card
or both?
Diamonds Picture Others Total
Sol: Since a card is drawn, 13 12 37 52

Therefore S = {the pack of 52 cards} (A)

 52  B
n (S) =   = 52
1
A
Let “A” be the event that a diamond card

 13 
Then n(A) =   =13
1

P (A) = =

Let “B” be the event that a picture card

 12 
Then n(A) =   =12
1

P (A) = =

Since the two events “A” and “B” are not mutually exclusive (because they can occur together),
therefore n (A  B) = 3

Now the probability of both “A” and “B” occur together is: P (A) = =

P(A or B or both) = P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A) = - =

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Example: In a certain college 25% of the students failed math, 15% of the students failed stats
and 10% of the students failed both maths and stats. A student is selected at random; what is the
probability the he/she failed math or stats?
Sol: Given
25% of students who failed Math => P(Math)= 0.25
15% of students who failed Stats => P(Stats)= 0.15
10% of students who failed both Math and Stats => P(Math  Stats)= 0.10
P(Math  Stats)= 0.10

P(Math)= 0.25 P(Stats)= 0.15

Now since the two subjects are not mutually exclusive,

Therefore, P(a student failed Math or Stats )= P(Math  Stats)
= P(Math) + P(Stats) -P(Math  Stats)
= 0.25 + 0.15- 0.10
= 0.30

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