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Flood Estimation

Flood estimation involves predicting extreme flood conditions using incomplete meteorological and hydrological data to aid in designing water resource structures and estimating maximum discharge. Methods include deterministic approaches, such as empirical equations and probabilistic methods that analyze flood frequency and magnitude. Coastal flood estimation faces additional challenges due to storm surges and the interaction of fluvial and marine processes.

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Snerita Sengupta
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18 views3 pages

Flood Estimation

Flood estimation involves predicting extreme flood conditions using incomplete meteorological and hydrological data to aid in designing water resource structures and estimating maximum discharge. Methods include deterministic approaches, such as empirical equations and probabilistic methods that analyze flood frequency and magnitude. Coastal flood estimation faces additional challenges due to storm surges and the interaction of fluvial and marine processes.

Uploaded by

Snerita Sengupta
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© © All Rights Reserved
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FLOOD ESTIMATION

Flood estimation, also known as flood prediction, involves using an often-incomplete set of
information on meteorological, hydrological, catchment and coastal conditions to estimate
extreme flood conditions for a given riverside or coastal location. Sometimes the objective is
to calculate the maximum flood which is likely to occur. Although there are important areas of
common ground between flood estimation and flood forecasting, the latter is essentially carried
out in real time, uses a wide range of available data, and provides detailed information, often
of a very precise nature, on the magnitude, depth, timing and duration of the forthcoming flood
event.

NEED OF FLOOD ESTIMATION

• To design the water resource structure such as dams, spillways, bridges etc.
• To determine the maximum discharge and maximum potential
• To estimate cost and size of structure.

The estimation of flood analysis can be done based on various methods, including theoretical
and analytical methods which are described below:

ESTIMATING RIVER FLOOD

1. Deterministic methods

The deterministic approach assumes that the magnitude of a river flood varies with the nature
of both precipitation and catchment area and many methods have been developed to estimate
maximum flood discharge from information on precipitation and catchment characteristics.
These range from simple empirical equations relating catchment area and flood discharge,
through more sophisticated relationships incorporating a wide range of catchment
characteristics, to attempts to estimate the maximum possible flood-producing rainfall event.

1.1 Simple empirical methods

There are literally hundreds of simple empirical flood estimation equations which take the
general form
where Qmax is the estimate of maximum flood discharge, A is the catchment area, n is an
exponent and C a coefficient which depends on the geographical and climatological
characteristics of the catchment.

One of the oldest and certainly one of the most widely used equations in this category is the
‘rational formula’

where C is a runoff coefficient indicating the percentage of rainfall which appears as quick
flow, I is the mean rainfall intensity, and A is the area of the catchment.

Simple empirical methods adopt an essentially ‘black box’ approach to flood estimation.
Different equations tend to give widely different results and may not always be internally
consistent.

1.2 Other empirical methods

More sophisticated empirical formulae may use a sufficiently wide range of


hydrometeorological and catchment data to enable adequate modelling of the physical
processes contributing to major flood peaks.

In the context of unit hydrograph theory, some of the most valuable developments were those
concerning the derivation of the instantaneous unit hydrograph and of synthetic hydrographs,
particularly in relation to flood estimation for ungauged catchments.

1.3 PMP and PMF

There is a range of circumstances in which it would be helpful to be able to estimate the biggest
flood which it is physically possible for a specified catchment to produce. Accordingly, a more
cautious approach has developed involving attempts to estimate the probable maximum
precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events.

In order to determine the PMP it would be necessary to know the upper limits on

(a) the humidity concentration of the air involved in the rain-generating event (e.g., storm cell,
frontal system);

(b) the rate at which humid air can move into the rain-generating event; and

(c) the proportion of the inflowing water vapour which can be precipitated, i.e., the storm
efficiency.
Direct estimates of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) may be derived by applying the
empirical approach. The assumptions which need to be made in order to estimate the PMF from
the PMP, e.g., about the spatial variation of rainfall, the direction of storm movement, and the
duration and profile of the flood-producing precipitation event, will differ in response to
contrasting hydrometeorological and catchment conditions found in different areas.

2. Probabilistic methods

The probabilistic approach assumes that floods are random quick flow events to which an
underlying statistical distribution can be fitted and whose probability of occurrence during a
given period of time can be calculated. The statistical relationships between flood magnitude
and frequency can be applied in two main ways to flood estimation. For a given return period,
the flood peak which will be equalled or exceeded once can be estimated, or for a given flood
magnitude the average frequency of exceedance (return period) can be estimated.

ESTIMATING COASTAL FLOOD

Deterministic and probabilistic methods are also used in flood estimation for coastal areas
where flooding is largely the result of storm surges. The inadequacy of the database tends to
constrain both approaches more severely than is the case for river flood estimation. In addition,
special problems affect flood estimation in estuaries where both fluvial and marine processes
interact. Deterministic methods of storm-surge prediction may involve estimation of the PMF
through maximisation of major storms, fetch and wave size and tidal level and, additionally for
estuary flooding, the maximisation of river inflows.

CONCLUSION

There are several different methods of estimating design floods, but the choice depends largely
on the records which are available, and the return period required for the particular project.
Statistical methods of analysis are greatly strengthened by increasing the effective length of
record, either by grouping flood records from various sources or by incorporating historical
information. The influence of climate on flood frequency relations is very significant. Physical
methods may be based on storm analysis and evidence of the conversion of storm to flood
events.

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