Review Module – Data Analytics 2

DISCRETE: POISSON DISTRIBUTION 𝑓(𝑥) = {

𝑘(𝑥 − 1)(4 − 𝑥), 1<𝑥<4
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Find the probability that X exceeds 3.5
1. The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution.
5. The random variable, X, has a probability density function.
2. It expresses the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed 𝑘(8 − 2𝑥), 0<𝑥<4
time if these events occur with a known average rate and are 𝑓(𝑥) = {
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
independent of the time since the last event.
Determine the median.
The probability distribution of Poisson Random variable X, representing
CONTINUOUS: EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
the number of outcomes occurring in each time interval is
𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃(𝑥) = The exponential distribution is a probability distribution that anticipates
𝑥!
the time interval between successive events. The events should occur
1. Suppose that a computer program will make an average of 3 errors continuously and should be independent of each other.
per 300 words of translation. Suppose we randomly select a 600-
word passage translated by this program. Assuming that the Probability Density Function:
1
Poisson distribution applies: 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑒
1 − 𝑥
𝜇 = 𝜆𝑒 − 𝜆𝑥 .
𝜇
a. Find the probability that no errors will be found.
b. Find the probability that more than 15 errors will be found.
c. Find the probability that fewer than 7 errors will be found. 6. A checkout counter at a supermarket completes the process
according to an exponential distribution with a service rate of 6 per
2. The exterior of a building consists of one hundred 3m x 5m glass hour. A customer arrives at the checkout counter. Find the
panels. Past records indicate that on average one flaw is found in probability of the following events.
every 50 sq.m of this type of glass panels; also a panel containing a. The service is completed in fewer than 5 minutes.
two or more flaws will eventually cause breakage problems and b. The customer leaves the checkout counter more than 10 minutes
have to be replaced. The occurrence of flaws may be assumed to after arriving.
be a Poisson process. What is the probability that a given panel will c. The service is completed in exactly 7 minutes.
be replaced?
CONTINUOUS: NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
POISSON APPROXIMATION TO THE
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION The normally distributed curve should be symmetric, bell-shaped
distribution which is defined by the mean and standard deviation.
Assuming that n is large, p is small and that np is constant, the terms
𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑛𝐶𝑥(𝑝) 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 Probability Density Function:
1 1 𝑥−𝜇 2
( )
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑒− 2 𝜎
of a binomial distribution may be closely approximated by the terms 𝜎√2𝜋
𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃(𝑥) = 7. Suppose the diameters of bolts manufactured by a company are
𝑥!
of the Poisson distribution for corresponding values of x. normally distributed with mean of 0.25 inches and standard
deviation 0.02 inches. A bolt is considered defective if its diameter
3. A manufacturer produces light-bulbs that are packed into boxes of is Greater than or equal to 0.28 inches or less than or equal to 0.20
100. If quality control studies indicate that 0.5% of the light-bulbs inches. Find the percentage of defective bolts manufactured by the
produced are defective, what percentage of the boxes will contain company.
exactly 3 defectives? 8. The length of life (in hours) of a certain type of electric bulb is
normally distributed with a mean life of 500 hours and a standard
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION deviation of 30 hours. What is the probability that a random sample
of a bulb will have a life between 472 and 518 hours?

NORMAL CURVE APPROXIMATION TO THE

A probability distribution in which the random variable X can take on any
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
of possible values (is continuous). The probability that X falls between
two values (a and b) equals the integral (area under the curve),
represented by a probability density function, from a to b: 9. A fair coin is tossed 10 times, show the probability distribution of
𝑏 number of heads.
𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 > 0 10. A coin is tossed 400 times. Use the normal curve approximation to
𝑎 find the probability of obtaining
a. exactly 205 heads
4. A charity group raises funds by collecting waste paper. A skip-full b. between 185 and 210 heads inclusive
will contain an amount of X, of other materials such as plastic bags
and rubber bands. X may be regarded as a random variable with
probability function.
 SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION 17. Determine the Expectation, Variance and Standard Deviation for the
probability distribution below.
11. The length of life (in hours) of a certain type of electric bulb is a
random variable with a mean life of 500 hours and a standard
deviation of 35 hours. What is the approximate probability that a X 1 2 3 4 5 6
random sample of 49 bulbs will have a mean life between 488 and P(x) 11/36 9/36 7/36 5/36 3/36 1/36
505 hours?

RELIABILITY 18. The waiting time X (in minutes) of a car waiting in tollgate of North
The reliability of a component or product as the probability that it will Luzon Expressway is given below
function properly for at least a specified time under specified 2𝑒 −2𝑥 , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 ≥ 0;
𝑓(𝑥) = {
experimental conditions. 0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒

12. The mean time between failures of a metal cutting lathe is 2770 a. Determine the average waiting time.
hours. Assuming an exponential distribution, what is the reliability of b. Determine the standard deviation.
the lathe after operating for 700 hours?

13. A mechanical component exhibits a negative exponential failure

with a mean time to failure of 1000 hours. What is the maximum
operating time such that the reliability remains above 99%

14. A system with three components in parallel has mean time to failure
of 10,000 hours. The reliabilities of the first and second components
are 0.5 and 0.75 respectively. The system is required to operate for
1000 hrs. Determine the reliability of the third component to satisfy
the previously mention conditions.

15. The automated sandwich making machine in a food manufacturer’s

factory has six major components with individual reliabilities as
follows:

Salad filler Reliability 0.97

Bread slicer Reliability 0.96
Butter applicator Reliability 0.94
Meat filler Reliability 0.92
Top slice of bread applicator 0.96
Reliability
Wrapper Reliability 0.91

If one of these parts of the production line fails, the system will stop
working. The owner of the factory has divided that the wrapper in
the automated sandwich making machine is too reliable and she
needs a second wrapper which will come into action if the first one
fails. The two wrappers (each with reliability of 0.91) will be working
together. Determine the reliability of the whole machine.

EXPECTATION

CE Board NOV 2018

16. An engineering consultant company must decide between two jobs.
The decision is based on the following information
Job 1
Probability 0.2 0.8
Outcome Loss of Php 30,000 Profit of Php 100,000

Job 2
Probability 0.4 0.6
Outcome Loss of Php 20,000 Profit of Php 125,000

Which job has greater expected profit? and state how much is the
expected profit.