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Chapter 10

The document introduces the theory of probability, explaining concepts such as random experiments, trials, events, and the two types of probability: mathematical and statistical. It provides formulas for calculating permutations and combinations, along with various examples illustrating how to determine probabilities in different scenarios. Additionally, it covers concepts like independent events, conditional probability, and includes exercises for further understanding.

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Manal Amir
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7 views7 pages

Chapter 10

The document introduces the theory of probability, explaining concepts such as random experiments, trials, events, and the two types of probability: mathematical and statistical. It provides formulas for calculating permutations and combinations, along with various examples illustrating how to determine probabilities in different scenarios. Additionally, it covers concepts like independent events, conditional probability, and includes exercises for further understanding.

Uploaded by

Manal Amir
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 1

Introduction
The theory of probability has its origin in games of chance related to gambling, such as
tossing a coin, throwing a die, or drawing from a set of cards.
Random Experience
A random experience is one whose results depend on chance, meaning that the results cannot
be predicted. Tossing a coin or throwing a die are examples of random experiments.
Trial
Performing a random experiment is called a trial.
Event
An event is an outcome or a combination of outcomes of a random experiment.
Probability
There are two kinds of probability:

1- Mathematical probability:
The fundamental probability equation is:
Probability of an event = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes)
Formula:
P(A) = M / N
 M = Number of cases favorable to event (A)
 N = Total number of exhaustive cases
2- Statistical probability
Permutations
 Formula: nPr
 Example: Arranging 3 things two at a time → 3P2
nPr = n! / (n-r)!
10P3 = 10! / (10-3)! = 720
Combination:
Selections of objects without considering the arrangements.
nCr = nPr / r! = n! / (n-r)! x r!
10C3 = 10! / (10-3)! x 3! = 120

Note: 10C3 = 10C7 & 200C198 = 200C2


so, it is useful when "r" is too large.
Example (1)
The sample space is calculated as: tossing a coin 3 times. Coin has two face & 3 is the N of
tossing then it is 2^3 = 8. Find the following probability.
(i) no head: 1/8
(ii) one head: 3/8
(iii) two head: 3/8
(iv) at least 2 heads: 4/8
(v) at most 2 heads: 7/8
Example 2
when 2 dice are thrown, what is the probability of getting doublets?
Solution:
Sample space = 6^2 = 36
Getting doublets = (1,1) (2,2) (3,3) (4,4) (5,5) (6,6)
6/36 = 1/6
Example 3
A card is drawn randomly from a set of cards. What is the probability that it is an ace or a
diamond?
 The pack contains 52 cards, so n = 52
 Ace = 4/52
 Diamond = 13/52
Example 4
A ball is drawn from a box containing 5 green, 6 red, and 4 yellow balls, making a total of
15 balls. Find the following probabilities:
1. Probability of drawing a red ball = 6/15 = 2/5
2. Probability of drawing a green ball = 4/15
3. Probability of drawing a yellow ball = 4/15
4. Probability of drawing a green and red ball = 5/15 + 6/15 = 11/15
Example 7
Two persons, A and B, appear for an interview. The probability of selecting:
 A = 1/3
 B = 1/2
A and B are independent, meaning selecting one does not affect the other.
Solution:
1. Probability that both A and B are selected:
o P(A) × P(B) = (1/3) × (1/2) = 1/6
2. Probability that only one is selected:
o P(A) ∩ P(B') + P(B) ∩ P(A') = (1/3 × 1/2) + (1/2 × 2/3) = 1/2
3. Probability that neither is selected:
o P(A') ∩ P(B') = (2/3) × (1/2) = 1/3

2. Only one of them is selected

P(A) ∩ P(B') + P(B) ∩ P(A') = (1/2 × 1/3) + (1/3 × 2/3) = 1/6 + 2/6 = 3/6 = 1/2

3. Probability of not selecting both P(A) ∩ P(B) = 1/2 × 2/3 = 2/6 = 1/3

Example 12

A box contains 4 black balls & 6 white balls. If 3 balls are drawn randomly, what is the
probability that they all are black & they all are white.

Solution:

 Total number of balls = 10


 Total number of selecting balls = 10C3 = 120
 Total number of selecting black balls = 4C3 = 4
 So probability of drawing black balls is: (4C3 / 10C3) = (4 / 120) = 1/30
 Probability of drawing white balls is: (6C3 / 10C3) = (20 / 120) = 1/6
Example 15
Bag A contain 6 red & 8 black ball
bag B Contain 7 red & 10 black ball
a bag is selected & a ball is drawn what is the probability it is Red?
Solution:
P(A) = P(B) = 1/2
the probability of choosing red ball from bag A is
6/14 = 3/7
then
[P(A) x P(R/A)] =
= 1/2 x 6/14 = 3/14
the probability of choosing red ball from bag B
[P(B) x P(R/B)] =
7/17 x 1/2 = 7/34
Therefore, the probability of choosing red ball from either Bag A or B
3/14 + 7/34 = 200/476 = 100/238 = 50/119

Example 17:
in a certain town, males and females form 50 percent of the population. It is known that 20
percent of the males and 5 percent of the females are unemployed. A research study
studying the employment situation selects unemployed persons at random. What is the
probability that the person selected is (i) a male (ii) a female?

Solution:
Out of 50% of the population 20% of the males are unemployed.
50/100 * 20/100 = 10/100 = 0.10
Out of 50% the population 5% of the females are unemployed.
50/100 * 5/100 = 25/1000 = 0.025
Based on the above data we can form the table as follows:
Employed Unemployed Total
Males 0.400 0.100 0.50
Females 0.475 0.025 0.50
Total 0.875 0.125 1.00

 Let a male chosen be denoted by M and a female chosen be denoted by F.


 Let U denotes the number of unemployed persons then
i) P(M/U) = P(M ∩ U) / P(U) = 0.10 / 0.125 = 0.80
ii) P(F/U) = P(F ∩ U) / P(U) = 0.025 / 0.125 = 0.20

Exercise one
Choose the best answer:
1- Probability is expressed as
(a) ratio
(b) percentage
(c) Proportion
(d) all the above
2- Probability can take values from
(a) -∞ to +∞
(b) -∞ to 1
(c) 0 to +1
(d) -1 to +1
4- Classical probability is also known as
(a) Statistical probability
(b) A priori probability
(c) Empirical probability
(d) None of the above
5- When a coin and a die are thrown, the number of all possible cases is
(a) 7
(b) 8
(c) 12
(d) 0
13- A coin is tossed 6 times. Find the number of points in the sample space.
(a) 12
(b) 16
(c) 32
(d) 64
15. The probability of not getting 2, when a die is thrown is ______.
(a) 1/3(b) 2/3
(c) 1/6
(d) 5/6
III. Answer the following:
27- Define the following terms:
Event. equally likely events. mutually exclusive events. exhaustive events. sample-space
28- Define dependent and independent events.
29- Define mathematical probability.
30- Define statistical probability.
31- State the axioms of probability.
32- Explain addition theorem on probability for any two events.
33- State the multiplication theorem on probability.
34- Define conditional probability.
35 - State Bayes' Rule.
38- Two dice are thrown. What is probability of getting (i) the sum is 10 (ii) at least 10
40- An integer is chosen from 20 to 30. Find the probability that it is a prime number.
55- The odds that AA speaks the truth are 3:2 and the odds that BB speaks the truth 3:3 by
percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other on an identical point?
56- The chances of X,YX,Y and ZZ becoming managers of a certain company are 4:23.
Probabilities that bonus scheme will be introduced if X,YX,Y and ZZ become manager
are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.4 respectively. If the bonus scheme has been introduced what is
for detecting that ZZ is appointed as the manager?

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