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DP IB Maths: AA SL Your notes

4.5 Binomial Distribution

Contents
4.5.1 The Binomial Distribution
4.5.2 Calculating Binomial Probabilities

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4.5.1 The Binomial Distribution

Your notes
Properties of Binomial Distribution
What is a binomial distribution?
A binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution
A discrete random variable X follows a binomial distribution if it counts the number of successes
when an experiment satisfies the following conditions:
There are a fixed finite number of trials (n)
The outcome of each trial is independent of the outcomes of the other trials
There are exactly two outcomes of each trial (success or failure)
The probability of success is constant (p)
If X follows a binomial distribution then it is denoted X ∼ B(n , p )
n is the number of trials
p is the probability of success
The probability of failure is 1 - p which is sometimes denoted as q
The formula for the probability of r successful trials is given by:
P(X = r ) = n C r × p r (1 − p ) n − r for r = 0, 1, 2, . . ., n

nC =
n!
r where n ! = n × (n − 1) × (n − 2) × . . . × 3 × 2 × 1
r !(n − r )!
You will be expected to use the distribution function on your GDC to calculate probabilities with
the binomial distribution
What are the important properties of a binomial distribution?
The expected number (mean) of successful trials is
E (X ) = np
You are given this in the formula booklet
The variance of the number of successful trials is
Var (X ) = np (1 − p )
You are given this in the formula booklet
Square root to get the standard deviation
The distribution can be represented visually using a vertical line graph
If p is close to 0 then the graph has a tail to the right
If p is close to 1 then the graph has a tail to the left
If p is close to 0.5 then the graph is roughly symmetrical
If p = 0.5 then the graph is symmetrical

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Modelling with Binomial Distribution

How do I set up a binomial model? Your notes
Identify what a trial is in the scenario
For example: rolling a dice, flipping a coin, checking hair colour
Identify what the successful outcome is in the scenario
For example: rolling a 6, landing on tails, having black hair
Identify the parameters
n is the number of trials and p is the probability of success in each trial
Make sure you clearly state what your random variable is
For example, let X be the number of students in a class of 30 with black hair

What can be modelled using a binomial distribution?

Anything that satisfies the four conditions
For example: let T be the number of times a fair coin lands on tails when flipped 20 times:
A trial is flipping a coin: There are 20 trials so n = 20
We can assume each coin flip does not affect subsequent coin flips: they are independent
A success is when the coin lands on tails: Two outcomes - tails or not tails (heads)
The coin is fair: The probability of tails is constant with p = 0.5
Sometimes it might seem like there are more than two outcomes
For example: let Y be the number of yellow cars that are in a car park full of 100 cars
Although there are more than two possible colours of cars, here the trial is whether a car is
yellow so there are two outcomes (yellow or not yellow)
Y would still need to fulfil the other conditions in order to follow a binomial distribution
Sometimes a sample may be taken from a population
For example: 30% of people in a city have blue eyes, a sample of 30 people from the city is taken
and X is the number of them with blue eyes
As long as the population is large and the sample is random then it can be assumed that each
person has a 30% chance of having blue eyes
What can not be modelled using a binomial distribution?
Anything where the number of trials is not fixed or is infinite
The number of emails received in an hour
The number of times a coin is flipped until it lands on heads
Anything where the outcome of one trial affects the outcome of the other trials
The number of caramels that a person eats when they eat 5 sweets from a bag containing 6
caramels and 4 marshmallows
If you eat a caramel for your first sweet then there are less caramels left in the bag when you
choose your second sweet
Anything where there are more than two outcomes of a trial
A person's shoe size
The number a dice lands on when rolled

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Anything where the probability of success changes

The number of times that a person can swim a length of a swimming pool in under a minute
when swimming 50 lengths Your notes
The probability of swimming a lap in under a minute will decrease as the person gets tired
The probability is not constant

Examiner Tip
An exam question might involve different types of distributions so make it clear which distribution
is being used for each variable

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Worked example
Your notes
It is known that 8% of a large population are immune to a particular virus. Mark takes a sample of 50
people from this population. Mark uses a binomial model for the number of people in his sample that
are immune to the virus.
a) State the distribution that Mark uses.

b) State two assumptions that Mark must make in order to use a binomial model.

c) Calculated the expected number of people in the sample that are immune to the virus.

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Your notes

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4.5.2 Calculating Binomial Probabilities

Your notes
Calculating Binomial Probabilities
Throughout this section we will use the random variable X ∼ B(n , p ) . For binomial, the probability of X
taking a non-integer or negative value is always zero. Therefore any values of X mentioned in this section
will be assumed to be non-negative integers.
How do I calculate P(X = x): the probability of a single value for a binomial distribution?
You should have a GDC that can calculate binomial probabilities
You want to use the "Binomial Probability Distribution" function
This is sometimes shortened to BPD, Binomial PD or Binomial Pdf
You will need to enter:
The 'x' value - the value of x for which you want to find P(X = x )
The 'n' value - the number of trials
The 'p' value - the probability of success
Some calculators will give you the option of listing the probabilities for multiple values of x at once
There is a formula that you can use but you are expected to be able to use the distribution function on
your GDC
P(X = x ) = n Cx × p x (1 − p ) n − x

nC =
n!
x r !(n − r )!
How do I calculate P(a ≤ X ≤ b): the cumulative probabilities for a binomial distribution?
You should have a GDC that can calculate cumulative binomial probabilities
Most calculators will find P( a ≤ X ≤ b )
Some calculators can only find P(X ≤ b )
The identities below will help in this case
You should use the "Binomial Cumulative Distribution" function
This is sometimes shortened to BCD, Binomial CD or Binomial Cdf
You will need to enter:
The lower value - this is the value a
This can be zero in the case P(X ≤ b )
The upper value - this is the value b
This can be n in the case P(X ≥ a )
The 'n' value - the number of trials
The 'p' value - the probability of success
How do I find probabilities if my GDC only calculates P(X ≤ x)?

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To calculate P(X ≤ x) just enter x into the cumulative distribution function

To calculate P(X < x) use: Your notes

P(X < x ) = P(X ≤ x − 1) which works when X is a binomial random variable
P(X < 5) = P(X ≤ 4)

To calculate P(X > x) use:

P(X > x ) = 1 − P(X ≤ x ) which works for any random variable X
P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X ≤ 5)

To calculate P(X ≥ x) use:

P(X ≥ x ) = 1 − P(X ≤ x − 1) which works when X is a binomial random variable
P(X ≥ 5) = 1 - P(X ≤ 4)

To calculate P(a ≤ X ≤ b) use:

P( a ≤ X ≤ b ) = P(X ≤ b ) − P(X ≤ a − 1) which works when X is a binomial random variable
P(5 ≤ X ≤ 9) = P(X ≤ 9) - P(X ≤ 4)

What if an inequality does not have the equals sign (strict inequality)?
For a binomial distribution (as it is discrete) you could rewrite all strict inequalities (< and >) as weak
inequalities (≤ and ≥) by using the identities for a binomial distribution
P(X < x ) = P(X ≤ x − 1) and P(X > x ) = P(X ≥ x + 1)
For example: P(X < 5) = P(X ≤ 4) and P(X > 5) = P(X ≥ 6)
It helps to think about the range of integers you want
Identify the smallest and biggest integers in the range
If your range has no minimum or maximum then use 0 or n
P(X ≤ b ) = P(0 ≤ X ≤ b )
P(X ≥ a ) = P( a ≤ X ≤ n )

P( a < X ≤ b ) = P( a + 1 ≤ X ≤ b )
P(5 < X ≤ 9) = P(6 ≤ X ≤ 9)

P( a ≤ X < b ) = P( a ≤ X ≤ b − 1)
P(5 ≤ X < 9) = P(5 ≤ X ≤ 8)

P( a < X < b ) = P( a + 1 ≤ X ≤ b − 1)
P(5 < X < 9) = P(6 ≤ X ≤ 8)

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Examiner Tip
Your notes
If the question is in context then write down the inequality as well as the final answer
This means you still might gain a mark even if you accidentally type the wrong numbers into
your GDC

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Worked example
Your notes
The random variable X ∼ B(40, 0 . 35) . Find:

i) P(X = 10) .

ii) P(X ≤ 10) .

iii) P(8 < X < 15) .

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