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Probability 4

The document provides notes on discrete probability distributions and expected values, explaining the concepts of random variables, probability distributions, and how to calculate probabilities and expected values. It includes definitions, examples, and methods for determining probabilities and assessing the fairness of games based on expected values. The content is aimed at students preparing for DP IB Maths: AA SL exams.

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23 views7 pages

Probability 4

The document provides notes on discrete probability distributions and expected values, explaining the concepts of random variables, probability distributions, and how to calculate probabilities and expected values. It includes definitions, examples, and methods for determining probabilities and assessing the fairness of games based on expected values. The content is aimed at students preparing for DP IB Maths: AA SL exams.

Uploaded by

bwcqtkqjmfjxvdefnl
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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DP IB Maths: AA SL Your notes

4.4 Probability Distributions


Contents
4.4.1 Discrete Probability Distributions
4.4.2 Expected Values

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4.4.1 Discrete Probability Distributions


Your notes
Discrete Probability Distributions
What is a discrete random variable?
A random variable is a variable whose value depends on the outcome of a random event
The value of the random variable is not known until the event is carried out (this is what is meant by
'random' in this case)
Random variables are denoted using upper case letters (X , Y , etc )
Particular outcomes of the event are denoted using lower case letters (x , y , etc)
P(X = x ) means "the probability of the random variable X taking the value x "
A discrete random variable (often abbreviated to DRV) can only take certain values within a set
Discrete random variables usually count something
Discrete random variables usually can only take a finite number of values but it is possible that it can
take an infinite number of values (see the examples below)
Examples of discrete random variables include:
The number of times a coin lands on heads when flipped 20 times
this has a finite number of outcomes: {0,1,2,…,20}
The number of emails a manager receives within an hour
this has an infinite number of outcomes: {1,2,3,…}
The number of times a dice is rolled until it lands on a 6
this has an infinite number of outcomes: {1,2,3,…}
The number that a dice lands on when rolled once
this has a finite number of outcomes: {1,2,3,4,5,6}
What is a probability distribution of a discrete random variable?
A discrete probability distribution fully describes all the values that a discrete random variable can
take along with their associated probabilities
This can be given in a table
Or it can be given as a function (called a discrete probability distribution function or "pdf")
They can be represented by vertical line graphs (the possible values for along the horizontal axis
and the probability on the vertical axis)
The sum of the probabilities of all the values of a discrete random variable is 1
This is usually written ∑P(X = x ) = 1
A discrete uniform distribution is one where the random variable takes a finite number of values each
with an equal probability
1
If there are n values then the probability of each one is
n

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Your notes

How do I calculate probabilities using a discrete probability distribution?


First draw a table to represent the probability distribution
If it is given as a function then find each probability
If any probabilities are unknown then use algebra to represent them
Form an equation using ∑P(X = x ) = 1
Add together all the probabilities and make the sum equal to 1
To find P(X = k )

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If k is a possible value of the random variable X then P(X = k ) will be given in the table
If k is not a possible value then P(X = k ) = 0
Your notes
To find P(X ≤ k )
Identify all possible values, x , that X can take which satisfy x ≤ k
i i
Add together all their corresponding probabilities
P(X ≤ k ) = ∑ P(X = x i )
xi ≤k
Some mathematicians use the notation F(x ) to represent the cumulative distribution
F(x ) = P(X ≤ x )
Using a similar method you can find P(X < k ) , P(X > k ) and P(X ≥ k )
As all the probabilities add up to 1 you can form the following equivalent equations:
P(X < k ) + P(X = k ) + P(X > k ) = 1
P(X > k ) = 1 − P(X ≤ k )
P(X ≥ k ) = 1 − P(X < k )
How do I know which inequality to use?
P(X ≤ k ) would be used for phrases such as:
At most , no greater than , etc
P(X < k ) would be used for phrases such as:
Fewer than
P(X ≥ k ) would be used for phrases such as:
At least , no fewer than , etc
P(X > k ) would be used for phrases such as:
Greater than , etc

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Worked example
Your notes
The probability distribution of the discrete random variable X is given by the function
⎧⎪ kx ² x = − 3, − 1, 2, 4
P(X = x ) = ⎨⎪⎪
⎪
⎩ 0 otherwise.
a) 1
Show that k = .
30

b) Calculate P(X ≤ 3) .

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4.4.2 Expected Values


Your notes
Expected Values E(X)
What does E(X) mean and how do I calculate E(X)?
E(X) means the expected value or the mean of a random variable X
The expected value does not need to be an obtainable value of X
For example: the expected value number of times a coin will land on tails when flipped 5 times is 2.5
For a discrete random variable, it is calculated by:
Multiplying each value of X with its corresponding probability
Adding all these terms together
E (X ) = ∑x P(X = x )
This is given in the formula booklet
Look out for symmetrical distributions (where the values of X are symmetrical and their probabilities
are symmetrical) as the mean of these is the same as the median
For example: if X can take the values 1, 5, 9 with probabilities 0.3, 0.4, 0.3 respectively then by
symmetry the mean would be 5
How can I decide if a game is fair?
Let X be the random variable that represents the gain/loss of a player in a game
X will be negative if there is a loss
Normally the expected gain or loss is calculated by subtracting the cost to play the game from the
expected value of the prize
If E(X) is positive then it means the player can expect to make a gain
If E(X) is negative then it means the player can expect to make a loss
The game is called fair if the expected gain is 0
E(X) = 0

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Worked example
Your notes
Daphne pays $15 to play a game where she wins a prize of $1, $5, $10 or $100. The random variable W
represents the amount she wins and has the probability distribution shown in the following table:

w 1 5 10 100
P(W = w ) 0.35 0.5 0.05 0.1
a) Calculate the expected value of Daphne's prize.

b) Determine whether the game is fair.

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