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Exercises 6 Ns

The document outlines a sales analysis for a product over twelve weeks, including tasks such as creating time series plots, developing various forecasting methods (Naïve, averages, moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing), and calculating accuracy metrics (ME, MAE, MSE, MAPE). It also includes questions about which forecasting method is recommended and which average method provides the best forecasts. The document is structured in sections for each forecasting method and their respective calculations.

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saharabuzinadah.1996
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0 views9 pages

Exercises 6 Ns

The document outlines a sales analysis for a product over twelve weeks, including tasks such as creating time series plots, developing various forecasting methods (Naïve, averages, moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing), and calculating accuracy metrics (ME, MAE, MSE, MAPE). It also includes questions about which forecasting method is recommended and which average method provides the best forecasts. The document is structured in sections for each forecasting method and their respective calculations.

Uploaded by

saharabuzinadah.1996
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Question: The following table represents the sales of a particular product for a

company over the past twelve weeks.

Week Sales
1 120
2 125
3 135
4 90
5 105
6 135
7 130
8 155
9 85
10 95
11 85
12 125

a) Construct the time series plot for the above data.


b) Develop a Naïve forecast and calculate ME, MAE, MSE and MAPE. Also,
what is the forecast for week 13?

Naïve
Week Sales Error |Error| Error2 |Error|/Sales * 100
Forecast
1 120

2 125

3 135

4 90

5 105

6 135

7 130

8 155

9 85

10 95

11 85

12 125

Total
c) Develop a forecast by using averages of all historical data and calculate
ME, MAE, MSE and MAPE. Also, what is the forecast for week 13?

AAHD
Week Sales Error |Error| Error2 |Error|/Sales * 100
Forecast
1 120

2 125

3 135

4 90

5 105

6 135

7 130

8 155

9 85

10 95

11 85

12 125

Total
d) Develop five periods moving average forecast and calculate ME, MAE, MSE
and MAPE. Also, what is the forecast for week 13?

5MA
Week Sales Error |Error| Error2 |Error|/Sales * 100
Forecast
1 120

2 125

3 135

4 90

5 105

6 135

7 130

8 155

9 85

10 95

11 85

12 125

Total
e) Develop seven periods moving average forecast and calculate ME, MAE,
MSE and MAPE. Also, what is the forecast for week 13?

7MA
Week Sales Error |Error| Error2 |Error|/Sales * 100
Forecast
1 120

2 125

3 135

4 90

5 105

6 135

7 130

8 155

9 85

10 95

11 85

12 125

Total
f) Develop three periods weighted moving average forecast using the
weights 0.4 for the most recent observation, 0.35 for the second most
recent observation and 0.25 for the third most recent observation. Also,
calculate ME, MAE, MSE, MAPE and compute the forecast for week 13.

3WMA
Week Sales Error |Error| Error2 |Error|/Sales * 100
Forecast
1 120

2 125

3 135

4 90

5 105

6 135

7 130

8 155

9 85

10 95

11 85

12 125

Total
g) Compute the forecasts by exponential smoothing method using 𝛼 = 0.75
and calculate ME, MAE, MSE and MAPE. Also, what is the forecast for
week 13?

Exponential
Smoothing
Week Sales Error |Error| Error2 |Error|/Sales * 100
Forecast
(𝛼 = 0.75)
1 120

2 125

3 135

4 90

5 105

6 135

7 130

8 155

9 85

10 95

11 85

12 125

Total
h) Compute the forecasts by exponential smoothing method using 𝛼 = 0.13
and calculate ME, MAE, MSE and MAPE. Also, what is the forecast for
week 13?

Exponential
Smoothing
Week Sales Error |Error| Error2 |Error|/Sales * 100
Forecast
(𝛼 = 0.13)
1 120

2 125

3 135

4 90

5 105

6 135

7 130

8 155

9 85

10 95

11 85

12 125

Total
i) Based on the measures of accuracy that you have calculated in the parts
(b), (c), (d), (e), (f), (g) and (h), which method of forecasting would you
recommend for the company. Explain your answer.
Forecast Accuracy Naïve AAHD 5MA 7MA 3WMA Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing
measure Forecast (𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟓) Forecast (𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑)
MAE
MSE
MAPE

j) Which of the average methods in the parts (c), (d), (e) and (f) provides the
best forecasts and why?

Forecast Accuracy AAHD 5MA 7MA 3WMA


measure
MAE
MSE
MAPE

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